非线性风险动力学和战略管理:液化天然气运输政策和实践的见解

IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS
Meng Bin , Chen Shuiyang , Dong Jingjing
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引用次数: 0

摘要

地缘政治风险(GPR)对LNG航运业构成了严峻而紧迫的挑战。本研究采用非线性分位数因果检验和多元分位数对分位数回归,考察了不同市场条件下GPR对LNG货运和租船市场的耦合效应。利用多元分位数回归和基于核的正则化最小二乘验证了结果的稳健性。实证结果表明,GPR对LNG运费和租船市场具有显著的非线性和非对称因果效应,风险从GPR向市场转移。在大多数正常市场条件下,低水平地缘政治风险对LNG现货货运市场、短期租船市场和长期租船市场的影响均不显著。在高分位数的极端市场条件下,GPR对所有LNG货运和租船市场都有显著的积极影响,具体影响取决于船型。GPR对小型船舶和短期租船市场的影响更大,表明船舶规模越大,租船期限越长,地缘政治风险越低。研究结果为船东和承租人的政策和管理实践提供了宝贵的见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Nonlinear risk dynamics and strategic Management: Insights for LNG shipping policy and practice
Geopolitical risks (GPR) pose a critical and immediate challenge to the LNG shipping industry. This study employs nonlinear quantile causality tests and multivariate quantile-on-quantile regression to examine the coupling effects of GPR on the LNG freight and charter markets under varying market conditions. The robustness of the results is verified using multivariate quantile regression and kernel-based regularized least squares. The empirical findings reveal that GPR has significant nonlinear and asymmetric causal effects on the LNG freight and charter markets, with risks transferring from GPR to the markets. Under most normal market conditions, low-level geopolitical risks exhibit an insignificant impact on LNG spot freight market, short-term charter market, and long-term charter market. Under extreme market conditions at high quantiles, GPR significantly positively impacts all LNG freight and charter markets, with variations depending on ship types. GPR has a greater influence on small ships and the short-term charter market, indicating that larger ships and longer charter durations better mitigate geopolitical risks. The findings offer valuable insights to inform policy and management practice for shipowners and charterers.
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来源期刊
Transport Policy
Transport Policy Multiple-
CiteScore
12.10
自引率
10.30%
发文量
282
期刊介绍: Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.
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