Electric vehicle adoption and the energy rebound effect in the transportation sector: evidence from China

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-04-21 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.022

Xiaolei Zhao , Xuemei Li , Yumeng Mao , Jianjun Fang

{"title":"Electric vehicle adoption and the energy rebound effect in the transportation sector: evidence from China","authors":"Xiaolei Zhao , Xuemei Li , Yumeng Mao , Jianjun Fang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.022","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) presents new opportunities for mitigating the energy rebound effect (ERE) in the transportation sector, yet this potential remains underexplored. This paper addresses two main objectives: firstly, to measure the ERE in the transportation sector at the city level in China from 2016 to 2022 using an improved stochastic frontier analysis model; and secondly, to examine whether widespread EV adoption can suppress the ERE and to explore the underlying mechanisms at play. Our findings reveal that the city-level ERE varies between 32.3 % and 79.2 %, with an average of 46.9 %, indicating that actual energy savings in Chinese cities under the influence of the digital economy reach only about 55 % of the anticipated levels. Moreover, our causal analysis indicates that EV adoption significantly reduces the transportation sector's ERE, with an average treatment effect of −14.2 %. This reduction is facilitated indirectly through three channels—the efficiency effect, the demand management effect, and the energy structure effect. These findings suggest that while the overall energy rebound effect remains substantial, EV adoption offers a promising pathway for mitigating it.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"169 ","pages":"Pages 227-241"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transport Policy","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X25001647","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) presents new opportunities for mitigating the energy rebound effect (ERE) in the transportation sector, yet this potential remains underexplored. This paper addresses two main objectives: firstly, to measure the ERE in the transportation sector at the city level in China from 2016 to 2022 using an improved stochastic frontier analysis model; and secondly, to examine whether widespread EV adoption can suppress the ERE and to explore the underlying mechanisms at play. Our findings reveal that the city-level ERE varies between 32.3 % and 79.2 %, with an average of 46.9 %, indicating that actual energy savings in Chinese cities under the influence of the digital economy reach only about 55 % of the anticipated levels. Moreover, our causal analysis indicates that EV adoption significantly reduces the transportation sector's ERE, with an average treatment effect of −14.2 %. This reduction is facilitated indirectly through three channels—the efficiency effect, the demand management effect, and the energy structure effect. These findings suggest that while the overall energy rebound effect remains substantial, EV adoption offers a promising pathway for mitigating it.

查看原文本刊更多论文

电动汽车的采用和交通运输部门的能源反弹效应：来自中国的证据

电动汽车（ev）的广泛采用为缓解交通运输领域的能源反弹效应（ERE）提供了新的机会，但这一潜力仍未得到充分开发。本文主要研究两个目标：首先，利用改进的随机前沿分析模型，对2016 - 2022年中国城市层面交通运输部门的ERE进行测度；其次，研究EV的广泛采用是否会抑制ERE，并探索其中的潜在机制。我们的研究结果显示，城市层面的ERE在32.3%到79.2%之间变化，平均为46.9%，这表明在数字经济的影响下，中国城市的实际节能仅达到预期水平的55%左右。此外，我们的因果分析表明，电动汽车的采用显著降低了交通运输部门的ERE，平均治疗效果为- 14.2%。这种减少是通过效率效应、需求管理效应和能源结构效应三个渠道间接促成的。这些发现表明，虽然整体能源反弹效应仍然很大，但电动汽车的采用为缓解这一效应提供了一条有希望的途径。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.