An evaluation of the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on public transit use in the United States

Abstract

Public transit offers significant societal benefits, offering efficient accessibility for all and helping to reduce congestion and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has altered many aspects of travel behavior and had particularly important implications for the future use of transit. Despite significant evidence of rebounds in ridership from pandemic lows, transit has not fully recovered. Various factors have contributed to this slow recovery, including continued fears of safety, service cuts, new travel habits, evolving work arrangements, and the growth of online activity participation. In this paper, we examine changes in public transit use during the pandemic, as well as the potential transitory nature of these shifts. Using data from the 2022 National Household Travel Survey, we explore the permanence of pandemic-era changes to public transportation (PT) use behaviors in the United States, connecting future use intentions directly with the change in use during the pandemic. The results of this study point to significant changes of use through the pandemic and heterogeneity in the permanence of these impacts based on age, gender, race, ethnicity, income, and vehicle constraints. By identifying groups who have reduced their use of transit post-pandemic and state that this change is likely to be temporary, we identify individual groups who may be most receptive to PT service improvement interventions. More broadly, we formulate several specific policy recommendations intended to help revitalize transit services in the United States in the aftermath of the pandemic and discuss the implications of the pandemic for current and future public transportation policies.