Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Mapping the green aviation: A bibliometric analysis of green aviation research (1900–2025)","authors":"Fangyu Cao ,&nbsp;Chunan Wang ,&nbsp;Shangrong Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Driven by the urgent challenge of climate change, sustainable aviation research has witnessed explosive growth since 2015. This study employs bibliometric methods to analyze 8081 documents from the Web of Science Core Collection (1900–2025). It maps the global distribution of research forces, characterizes the foundational knowledge structure, and innovatively integrates an economic and management perspective to scrutinize the barriers to commercialization. The findings reveal that global research forces are undergoing a profound transformation from Western dominance to a diversified landscape. In terms of knowledge evolution, the research focus has fundamentally shifted from environmental impact assessment to the exploration of specific technological solutions, eventually converging into two parallel trajectories: the SAF and the Electrification. By conducting a economic analysis, this study specifically highlights the socio-economic feasibility constraints hindering the SAF pathway. Based on these findings, this study proposes several research directions and policy implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 104014"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When rail matters most: policy impacts in China's freight \"Modal shift from road to railway\"","authors":"Shuqi Zhang,&nbsp;Huiyu Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the prevalence of excessive overloading in road freight and its associated environmental impacts, rail has become an increasingly ideal mode of freight transport. The Chinese government implemented the \"modal shift from road to railway\" policy to redirect bulk cargo transport from roads to railways. This study employs a causal forest approach to evaluate the policy's effects, revealing that it reduced transport costs by 12 %, eased road congestion by 4 %, improved traffic safety by 3 %, and mitigated environmental pollution by 23 %. The policy's effects exhibited regional heterogeneity, particularly on the southeastern side of the Hu Line (China's demographic divide). Furthermore, the present study adopted the partial dependence plots to assess the marginal effects of key drivers. Notably, in regions with a railway mileage of approximately 2320 km, continued expansion of railway infrastructure generates disproportionately high marginal benefits, suggesting an important policy window when rail matters most. The results offer evidence-based guidance and a replicable framework for implementing freight modal shift strategies in developing countries, emphasizing the importance of regionally differentiated policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 104030"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146174517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A hybrid big-data framework for tourist and high-speed rail mobility modelling","authors":"Martin Šauer ,&nbsp;Vilém Pařil ,&nbsp;Monika Jandová ,&nbsp;Tomáš Paleta ,&nbsp;Martin Farbiak","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces a novel hybrid methodology to address the critical challenge of accurately forecasting demand for significant infrastructure projects, such as High-Speed Rail (HSR), where traditional estimates often suffer from significant overestimation. The study has three main objectives: (1) to identify and quantify biases in current long-distance transport demand forecasts; (2) to understand how these biases affect the highly variable and unpredictable demand generated by tourists; and (3) to introduce an integrated approach that reduces such biases and improves transport planning by combining large-scale mobile phone signalling data with traditional data sources (e.g., traffic counts, travel surveys). The novelty of the study lies in the integration of behavioural big data into transport modelling and in its ability to capture same-day visitors—a group typically underrepresented in conventional tourism statistics yet highly relevant for long-distance mobility forecasts. Using the planned Prague–Brno HSR corridor in the Czech Republic as a real-world case study, we analyse both the advantages and drawbacks of using signalling phone data for transport planning. This approach is crucial because multi-billion-euro HSR investments depend on accurate forecasts; overestimations risk misallocating vast public funds. Our method provides a more granular understanding of travel dynamics, particularly by capturing the highly volatile and often underreported impact of tourist flows on long-distance travel. Demand is estimated through scenarios to reduce uncertainty, reflecting alternative assumptions about behavioural responses and modal shifts. The analysis estimates a potential annual demand of 4.5–10.5 million passengers for the Prague–Brno HSR, a figure significantly lower than official projections. This discrepancy highlights the risk of optimism bias in conventional forecasting. For policymakers, the primary conclusion is the urgent need to institutionalise multi-source, data-driven methods for evidence-based decision-making. By providing a more realistic picture of current demand and revealing nuanced behaviours such as regional differences in the willingness to shift from cars to HSR, this hybrid approach supports fiscally responsible planning and the development of targeted strategies to promote sustainable mobility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 104028"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146174518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding intercity travel distribution: A quantitative explanation approach using dual-layered zone delineation","authors":"Zile Liu ,&nbsp;Xuedong Yan ,&nbsp;Xiaobing Liu ,&nbsp;Siwei Ma ,&nbsp;Hua Zhong ,&nbsp;Lu Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban agglomerations are national growth engines, yet surging intercity travel intensifies congestion and CO₂ emissions, making sustainable land-use-mobility alignment imperative. Recent national and regional policies in China emphasize agglomeration-scale transport integration, yet the mechanisms generating intercity travel within urban agglomerations remain insufficiently specified and weakly quantified. We propose a dual-layer delineation that fuses multi-source features to construct traffic analysis zones (TAZs) that are contiguous, functionally coherent, and demand-balanced. Combined with an interpretable deep-learning framework—Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)—the approach quantifies nonlinear built environment effects on intercity travel. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH-UA), the delineation reduces the dependent variable's coefficient of variation by 24.01% and increases between-zone heterogeneity among explanatory variables eightfold, enabling fine-grained management. KAN also yields equation-level representations that accord with SHAP attributions. Distance and origin/destination trip volumes emerge as dominant drivers, while socioeconomic, transport, and land-use attributes exert significant nonlinear effects. The framework identifies priority travel areas and their travel distribution mechanisms, and supports demand-concentrating, high-capacity public transport services, advancing sustainable, coordinated land-use and intercity transport planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 104054"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146174509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Navigating the trilemma of sustainable aviation fuel development in China: status and prospects","authors":"Yuchao Xu ,&nbsp;Yahua Zhang ,&nbsp;Xin Deng ,&nbsp;Anming Zhang ,&nbsp;Hang Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104035","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104035","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) development in China through interviews with 31 stakeholders, including fuel producers, aircraft manufacturers, airlines, and supply chain companies. The research identifies four recurring challenges: overreliance on used cooking oil and the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway, uncertain demand, lack of standardisation, and unclear policy support. Drawing on these interviews and industrial policy literature, the study proposes the concept of “SAF trilemma” —affordability, scalability, and sustainability—and presents an analytical framework and metrics to guide policy design and planning. A five-phase policy roadmap is proposed: (1) setting SAF mandates; (2) diversifying feedstocks; (3) developing carbon markets and accounting systems; (4) streamlining SAF supply chains; and (5) establishing national sustainability certification schemes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 104035"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146174519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"R&D investment strategies of robotaxi services: The role of cost variation and consumers’ trust","authors":"Ke Lu ,&nbsp;Danping Wen ,&nbsp;Heng Du","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The promotion of robotaxi services can improve the efficiency and sustainability of urban transportation while requires substantial research and development (R&amp;D) investment in relevant technologies. This study intends to investigate the strategies of R&amp;D investment for robotaxi services by considering a supply chain that includes an automobile manufacturer, a robotaxi platform, and consumers. Two scenarios are considered, where either the automobile manufacturer or the robotaxi platform undertakes the investment. In addition, this study analyzes the effects of unit investment cost variations, consumer trust, and government subsidy. Further, this study extends the main models to incorporate the effects of market size variations, consumer-targeted subsidies, fleet size, and simultaneous investment. The results are presented as follows. (1) In both scenarios, the level of R&amp;D investment is negatively affected by unit cost while positively impacted by government subsidy and consumers’ trust. (2) The analysis identifies two thresholds for the robotaxi platform’s unit R&amp;D cost variation. If the cost variation is above the upper threshold, the automobile manufacturer will undertake R&amp;D investment. Otherwise, if the cost variation is below the lower threshold, the robotaxi platform will undertake R&amp;D investment. (3) Lower R&amp;D investment unit cost, higher degree of government subsidy, and greater degree of consumers’ trust jointly promote the formation of equilibrium strategies. Overall, whether the automobile manufacturer or the robotaxi platform undertakes R&amp;D investment is jointly affected by relative investment costs of both stakeholders, consumers’ trust, and government subsidy. Therefore, this study offers both theoretical and practical implications for R&amp;D investment in robotaxi services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 104021"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A latent risk factor analysis guiding policy interventions for inland maritime safety","authors":"Jingbo Yin ,&nbsp;Rafi Ullah Khan ,&nbsp;Mujtaba Asad ,&nbsp;Xinbo Wang ,&nbsp;Zaili Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104057","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inland waterway safety is a pressing policy priority in China's transport sector, where effective regulation and targeted interventions are vital to managing accident risks in the world's busiest inland shipping network. While policymakers have increasingly focused on this issue, the causal mechanisms shaping accident severity remain insufficiently understood. This study applies Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to quantify the influence of four latent constructs, Ship Characteristics, Environmental Conditions, Operational Risk, and Crew &amp; Equipment, on inland maritime accident outcomes. Constructs were validated through principal component analysis, and the model achieved excellent fit (χ²/df = 1.363; RMSEA = 0.022; CFI = 0.94). Results show that Operational Risk (β = 0.84) and Crew &amp; Equipment (β = 0.70) are the strongest predictors of severity. These insights highlight that the policy needs to strengthen operational oversight, crew training, and equipment standards. The proposed framework provides a transferable, evidence-based tool for enhancing safety governance in inland waterway transport both within China and globally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 104057"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146174510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Institutional spillovers and energy efficiency in maritime transport: Evidence from the EU MRV dataset","authors":"Javier Vaca-Cabrero ,&nbsp;Alberto Camarero-Orive ,&nbsp;Nicoletta González-Cancelas","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Improving energy efficiency in maritime transport is a key pillar of decarbonization policy. While existing studies often focus on individual vessels or aggregate trends, this paper introduces a spatial-institutional perspective to explore how regulatory and operational interdependencies among flag states influence ship-level efficiency. Using vessel-level data from the EU Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system, it is applyed a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to assess whether improvements in technical efficiency diffuse across ports of registry. Results confirm significant institutional spillover effects: a vessel's efficiency is positively influenced by the performance of ships registered under the same or administratively related flags. Fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions are negatively associated with efficiency, while time at sea shows a positive relationship. Counterfactual scenarios indicate that targeted fuel-reduction policies could trigger amplified efficiency gains through institutional multipliers. The findings suggest that registry governance, regulatory alignment, and cooperative mechanisms under frameworks like the EU ETS can enhance sector-wide decarbonization. This study contributes to the literature by introducing a spatial–institutional perspective on maritime energy efficiency, empirically quantifying registry-based spillover effects using vessel-level MRV data, and providing policy-relevant insights for coordinated decarbonization strategies within multilevel transport governance systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 104031"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146026273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"User-centered attributes influencing customer satisfaction with autonomous delivery robots in cities","authors":"Le Yi Koh,&nbsp;Kum Fai Yuen","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104053","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104053","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Autonomous delivery robots are becoming more prevalent in the smart city concept. This study will examine the attributes influencing customer satisfaction with autonomous delivery robots, while addressing the differences between experienced and inexperienced users. To compile the relevant attributes, a literature review of 59 studies was conducted, and 26 customer-focused attributes were identified. Subsequently, a survey questionnaire was conducted, and respondents were required to rate the importance and performance of the identified attributes. The survey received 616 responses, and an importance-performance analysis was conducted with the data. The findings indicate that functional utility is the primary driver of satisfaction for both user groups, while hedonic attributes can be secondary advantages, but autonomous delivery robots' aesthetic, health-protection, and status-related qualities are less important. Additionally, as users become more familiar with the robots, they begin to consider wider environmental issues and emphasize environmental protection, suggesting that familiarity with autonomous delivery robots shifts focus to broader societal impacts. Overall, this study highlights the dynamic nature of customer satisfaction and provides actionable insights for urban policies to close the gaps between performance and customers’ expectations, ultimately ensuring customer satisfaction and seamless integration of autonomous delivery robots into smart cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 104053"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146174515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From connectivity to complexity: The influence of high-speed rail on urban knowledge complexity","authors":"Mingming Guan,&nbsp;Yuting Hou","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Knowledge complexity is a key determinant of regional competitiveness, yet the mechanisms and micro-level carriers through which transportation infrastructure shapes it remains insufficiently understood. This study examines the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) on knowledge complexity using patent and socio-economic data from 268 Chinese cities over 2005–2020, applying a multi-period difference-in-differences approach. Results show that HSR significantly enhances urban knowledge complexity, and the findings remain robust after addressing endogeneity concerns. Mechanism analysis reveals that HSR promotes complexity primarily through diversified agglomeration and network externalities, while specialized agglomeration has no significant effect. Moreover, HSR reshapes the relationship between agglomeration and network effects by substituting localized specialization with networked knowledge flows and enhancing the innovative potential of diversification through cross-regional complementarities. At the micro level, HSR triggers knowledge combination through two channels: a sharing mechanism that emphasizes collaborative interactions and collective knowledge externalities, and a matching mechanism that facilitates the strategic acquisition and recombination of external knowledge via technology transfers. By integrating agglomeration and network externality frameworks, this study provides empirical evidence on how HSR shapes urban knowledge complexity. The findings offer China-specific policy implications and transferable insights for regions pursuing innovation-driven growth through improved connectivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 104036"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}