Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Accounting for uncertainties in cost-benefit analyses of road projects: A procedure illustrated by real-world projects","authors":"Eivind Tveter ,&nbsp;Morten Welde ,&nbsp;James Odeck","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A critical step in the road investment decision-making process is to conduct cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) to assess the net social benefit of project alternatives. CBA results are often presented to decision-makers as point estimates. However, such results rely on numerous forecasts, parameters, and unit values, which introduce uncertainty. This paper adds to the literature on transport CBAs by evaluating how their inherent uncertainty can be considered by analysts and presented to decision-makers. We develop a Monte Carlo simulation procedure that uses variations in the most critical factors related to CBAs. We apply this procedure to a set of projects to demonstrate how it could inform decision-makers in terms of the uncertainties involved in CBAs. We show that if analysts present ranges or confidence intervals, decision-makers may make other choices that differ from those based on point estimates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 137-146"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying the effect of street network system on activity behaviours near the homes of older adults: An analytical framework integrating transportation, social, and natural attributes","authors":"Ruina Han ,&nbsp;Dongfeng Yang ,&nbsp;Zhengying Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extensive research has explored the relationship between street characteristics and the activity behavior of older adults, yet the exploration of non-linear relationships in this context remains limited. Additionally, natural street attributes, such as blue and green spaces, have been largely understudied. This paper fills these gaps by exploring the nonlinear relationships between street network features and activity behaviors near older adults' homes, using a gradient boosting decision tree model, with a focus on Dalian, China. The study highlights three key findings. First, street network characteristics have a stronger influence on activity behaviors than socio-demographic factors. Second, the relationship between street network features and activity behaviors is often nonlinear, emphasizing the need for nonlinear analysis methods. Third, the study reveals that strategies aimed at enhancing street network closeness, improving service facilities, increasing public transport accessibility and enhancing the quality of green and blue spaces may motivate older adults to engage in activity behaviours. The interaction between key street network indicators reveals significant effects, requiring identification of their effective ranges and interaction values. These insights offer practical recommendations for urban planning and promote strategies to support healthier lifestyles for older adults, ultimately contributing to the development of sustainable transportation systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 34-50"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on travel choice behavior of medium and long distance intercity passengers in the context of air-rail competition","authors":"Yanchang Chu ,&nbsp;Yanbo Ai ,&nbsp;Zhenghong Wu ,&nbsp;Huijuan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the highly competitive environment of medium and long distance passenger transport market, enhancing passengers' willingness to choose air travel and market share is an important issue for airlines. This paper establishes a passenger travel choice behavior model that considers transfers between urban and intercity transportation as well as network information, focusing on air and high-speed rail. Based on the survey of passengers in Tianjin, partial least squares structural equation model and necessary condition analysis is employed to show that perceived tangibility, perceived inertia, perceived comfort, perceived convenience, perceived safety and perceived reliability of two travel modes have a positive effect on perceived value. Perceived value significantly influences satisfaction, while both satisfaction and perceived value of time significantly affect travel behavior intention. Network information guidance plays a moderating role between satisfaction and travel behavior intention. The moderating effect of transfer efficiency on travel choice behavior is only significant in air travel. Perceived tangibility, perceived inertia, perceived comfort, perceived value and satisfaction are the necessary conditions of travel behavior intention in air travel, while perceived comfort and perceived value are the necessary conditions of travel behavior intention in high-speed rail travel. Those findings are helpful to understand factors affecting travel choice behavior of air passengers, and provide important references for optimizing air services and formulating targeted market strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 163-177"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drivers' trip purpose and pre-crash maneuvers as determinants of pedestrian injury severity: Insights and policy recommendations","authors":"Matin Sadeghi ,&nbsp;Kayvan Aghabayk ,&nbsp;MohammadAli Seyfi ,&nbsp;Nirajan Shiwakoti","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pedestrian safety is a critical component of sustainable urban mobility. Despite the known societal and health benefits of walking, pedestrians remain one of the most vulnerable groups on the road, often suffering severe injuries in crashes due to their lack of physical protection. To address this issue, policies encouraging walking must go hand in hand with measures that enhance safety. This study investigates the risk factors affecting pedestrian crash severity on urban roads in the United Kingdom, with a focus on the underexplored role of drivers' trip purposes and crash preceding maneuvers.</div><div>Using a temporal analysis, the study reveals that drivers' trip purposes, particularly ‘commuting trips' and ‘work-related journeys’, are significantly associated with serious pedestrian injuries. The analysis further explores crash preceding actions, finding that vehicle maneuvers such as reversing, turning, and stopping/starting, as well as pedestrian movements such as crossing from the driver's offside or walking along roadways, significantly impact injury outcomes. While minor injuries are more likely during vehicle turning, reversing, and pedestrian road-walking, fatal injuries are strongly associated with maneuvers like pedestrian crossings that involve higher risk.</div><div>These findings provide essential insights into pedestrian crash dynamics and can inform more targeted safety measures. Policy recommendations include developing tailored traffic management strategies, such as limiting certain high-risk maneuvers in pedestrian-dense areas, lowering speed limits in urban areas, and adopting advanced vehicle safety technologies. Additionally, creating awareness campaigns that emphasize the dangers posed by specific driver behaviors during work-related or commuting trips could help mitigate risks. Enhancing driver training for taxi, truck, and bus operators, particularly in urban areas, and implementing workplace safety programs targeting driver fatigue could improve road safety. Finally, public awareness campaigns emphasizing both pedestrian visibility and safe crossing behaviors are crucial for reducing pedestrian vulnerability. Integrating these insights into broader urban transport planning and adopting stricter pedestrian safety regulations would support more effective interventions aimed at reducing pedestrian injury severity and enhancing road safety in urban environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 58-74"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144099440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the role of green mobility in coupling coordination of urbanization and ecological environment: Evidence from high-speed rail accessibility","authors":"Langang Feng ,&nbsp;Jin Hu ,&nbsp;Kaiya Wu ,&nbsp;Minmin Huang ,&nbsp;Mingjun Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-speed rail (HSR) represents a significant advancement in low-carbon transportation, offering both efficiency and environmental benefits. This study delves into the impact of HSR on coupling coordination of urbanization and ecological environment (CCUEE) in China, utilizing a comprehensive dataset from 284 cities spanning from 2005 to 2021. Through the application of interdisciplinary approaches, the difference-in-differences method in econometric, and social network analysis in sociology, the research uncovers that HSR markedly enhances CCUEE. The underlying mechanisms include the concentration of technology resources and improved labor mobility, which collectively bolster CCUEE. The benefits of HSR are notably pronounced in eastern regions, as well as in large cities, and non-resource-based cities. Conversely, in declining resource cities, HSR may intensify the “Matthew effect,” potentially exacerbating existing disparities. Additionally, from a network perspective, the breadth and depth of HSR connections significantly amplify its positive impact on CCUEE. These findings offer crucial insights into how low-carbon transportation infrastructure can advance CCUEE, providing valuable guidance for policymakers striving to implement effective urban policies and promote CCUEE through green transportation initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 24-33"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144084337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Price discrimination between freight forwarders and carriers: Evidence from the container shipping industry","authors":"Pierre Cariou ,&nbsp;Haiying Jia ,&nbsp;François-Charles Wolff","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Freight forwarders often serve as intermediaries in the container shipping industry, facilitating reservations and negotiating container freight rates between shippers and carriers. This study empirically investigates whether these freight forwarders experience price discrimination compared to shippers who engage in direct price negotiations with carriers. The analysis uses a unique dataset consisting of approximately 1.5 million real-world transactions from 2018 to 2023. The results show that, on average, freight forwarders incur a 5 % premium for short-term contracts but receive a 3 % discount for long-term contracts. Moreover, the premium was more pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at 18.1 % in 2021–2022. This finding is corroborated by a robust estimation that matches contracts negotiated by freight forwarders with comparable contracts negotiated directly by shippers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144069218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling and variable selection of healthcare trip behaviours using statistical learning techniques","authors":"Cagdas Kara ,&nbsp;Abdulkadir Ozden ,&nbsp;Arzu Altin Yavuz ,&nbsp;Safak Bilgic","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In an increasingly complex and fast-paced world, understanding healthcare-related travel behavior has become a critical challenge in transportation planning. Traditional models, including the Four-Step Transportation Model (FSTM), require further refinements to better capture evolving travel patterns, particularly the growing share of home-based other trips, which include shopping, leisure, and healthcare-related journeys. Among these, healthcare trips require special attention due to the increasing proportion of the aging population and the essential nature of medical accessibility.</div><div>This study aims to identify key variables influencing healthcare-related travel behaviors using variable selection techniques, specifically Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) and Elastic Net (ENet). The analysis is based on zonal-level aggregated data derived from household-based hospital travel surveys conducted in Eskişehir City. The model incorporates regional socioeconomic variables, including household characteristics, vehicle ownership rates, employment ratios, and age group distributions. Model performance is evaluated using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as key success criteria.</div><div>The results indicate that the ENet model achieved the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE), reducing the error by approximately 37 % compared to the OLS model, while the Lasso model yielded the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE), reflecting a 38 % improvement. Both methods effectively performed variable selection, retaining 10 out of 17 predictors in the final model. Significant variables positively associated with healthcare travel frequency include the proportions of individuals aged 30–49, 50–64, and over 65, as well as family density. These results suggest that household accompaniment patterns and age-related healthcare needs increase the frequency of such trips. In contrast, negative associations were observed between healthcare travel frequency and the share of the 6–17 age group, employment ratio, average number of cars per family, and the number of healthcare centers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 12-23"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring spillover effects in the four shipping markets: Theory and empirical evidence from bulk shipping","authors":"Panagiotis Palaios,&nbsp;Anna Triantafillou","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims at assessing the extent of connectedness (integration) across the four shipping markets (freight, secondhand vessels, newbuilding, and scrap) for three different segments of the industry (bulkers, oil tankers, and LNG vessels). We use monthly data for the period 1990 to 2023. The innovation of our study is that we examine the asymmetric connectedness of the shipping markets following Stopford's (2009)integration theory. We find strong patterns of asymmetric connectedness across the four markets, with the spillover effects being higher at the tails of the conditional distribution. At the macroeconomic level, our dynamic analysis provides evidence that integration is strongly affected by spillover effects arising from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the related government interventions to counterbalance the adverse implications for economies globally. From a market level perspective, we corroborate prior literature, finding that the freight market is overall the strongest net spills provider and consequently the dominant one. However, we also find that the secondhand market, especially in the LNG segment, acts partially as a leading market, due to the current geopolitical events that have strengthened the Risky Asset Pricing (RAP) model (shipping paradox). Our findings contribute to the decision-making process in both ship and asset management, revealing a proactive, risk-seeking behavior on the part of shipowners in the secondhand market vis à vis a more conservative behavior in the newbuilding market, which appears to be a lagging indicator of both the freight and secondhand markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 75-91"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144099441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How emissions trading system affects liner ship disruption recovery","authors":"Shihao Li,&nbsp;Tingsong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the liner ship disruption recovery problem considering the emissions trading system, aiming to minimize the total cost of disruption recovery plans while ensuring compliance with CO₂ emission regulations. A mixed-integer programming model is constructed, integrating three operational-level recovery actions and tactical-level multiple time windows cooperation agreements, and a customized decomposition-based hybrid heuristic algorithm is developed to resolve the model efficiently. Extensive computational experiments are carried out to validate the effectiveness of the model and algorithm. The results show that different recovery actions should be selected based on the degree of delay, increasing the ratio and price of carbon emissions allowance can reduce carbon emissions but to a limited extent, and improving container handling speed also helps reduce costs and emissions. The managerial insights derived provide practical decision-making references for liner carriers to address disruptions and environmental regulatory challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"169 ","pages":"Pages 191-208"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shipping news sentiment as a predictor of iron ore freight rates: Hybrid evidence from lexicon-based analysis and threshold autoregression modelling","authors":"Yuting Gong ,&nbsp;Yongyuan Peng ,&nbsp;Luxuan Xu ,&nbsp;Kecai Chen ,&nbsp;Wenming Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate and timely predictions of shipping freight rates provide a crucial basis for market participants to enhance their decision making. To this end, this study proposes a hybrid approach that integrates language models (LMs) and lexicon-based methods to construct an innovative shipping sentiment index (SSI) for the iron ore shipping market. By mining 9034 iron ore-related shipping news headlines and their accompanying summaries from two major shipping websites covering the period from January 2011 to December 2023, the following main results are obtained: First, the SSI closely tracks the dynamics of iron ore freight rates on major routes, effectively capturing uncertainties triggered by unforeseen events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the threshold autoregression model reveals a nonlinear relationship between the SSI and iron ore freight rates, indicating that the positive correlation is more nuanced during relatively optimistic market conditions. Moreover, iron ore prices positively influence freight rates, with this effect being stronger in optimistic market conditions than in periods of pessimistic sentiment. Additionally, economic policy uncertainty in China has a positive impact on iron ore freight rates on the selected routes, regardless of the prevailing shipping sentiment. Third, when analyzed within the nonlinear threshold framework, the SSI effectively predicts iron ore freight rates in the out-of-sample forecasting analysis. These results have important implications for iron ore importers, enhancing their ability to manage production costs, ensuring financial stability, and increasing supply chain resilience. They also provide a sound basis for shipping market participants (e.g., shipowners, brokers, investors, and shipbuilders) to make informed decisions that can improve profitability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"169 ","pages":"Pages 178-190"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143937481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}