Transport PolicyPub Date : 2025-08-11DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103767
Shintaro Katayama , Atsushi Koike
{"title":"Spatial computable general equilibrium modelling considering passenger and freight transport","authors":"Shintaro Katayama , Atsushi Koike","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103767","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103767","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Linear Chuo Shinkansen is expected to have economic effects on the three metropolitan areas of Japan. Thus, the gap between urban and rural areas is expected to expand. Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) models describe the distribution of the effects of infrastructure development. We propose an empirical SCGE model that applies an aggregated logit model to subdivided areas where only value-added data are prepared without an input-output table. However, we develop these models only to improve freight transport. Therefore, this study aims to develop an SCGE model that considers passenger and freight transport and measure the economic impacts of highways and interregional high-speed railroads. We use the value-added from prefectural accounts and input-output tables available in each prefecture. The results show that the total benefit is almost identical to existing trial calculation results. The model proposed in this study makes it possible to calculate the effects of railroad projects, even in subdivided areas where input-output tables have not been prepared.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103767"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144878659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Transport PolicyPub Date : 2025-08-09DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103765
Simon Bothof , Geert te Boveldt , Kobe Boussauw
{"title":"Identifying transport policy priorities through a meta-analysis of cost-benefit analysis in the Netherlands and Flanders","authors":"Simon Bothof , Geert te Boveldt , Kobe Boussauw","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103765","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103765","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper we assess cost-benefit analysis (CBA) reports and outcomes for transport projects in the Netherlands and Flanders between 2010 and 2024. CBA has been used extensively to evaluate potential investments in transport infrastructure, and to compare options. We investigate which factors contribute most to the Net Present Value (NPV) of CBAs and to what extent social, ecological and economic criteria are relevant to the outcomes of the evaluation. Results show that on average 80 % of monetized effects stem from economic criteria, whereas social (15 %) and ecological (5 %) criteria contribute far less to the outcome. This is also reflected in the finding that for 90 % of the cases the exclusion of social and ecological criteria does not change the outcome of the NPV calculation (from positive to negative, or vice-versa). Although sustainability is becoming increasingly important in the discourse around transport infrastructure, both social and ecological aspects of sustainability have only a minor impact on the NPVs and outcomes of CBAs for transport projects in the two territories and the time period under investigation. This implies that most transport investments do not specifically target sustainability issues, or that CBA does not reflect these considerations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103765"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144878660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Transport PolicyPub Date : 2025-08-07DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103766
Wei Zhang , Xiangli Cao , Chengjiang Li , Quande Qin , Jing Yang , Wenbo Li
{"title":"Study on V2G potential of electric taxis based on map-matching multi-objective optimization","authors":"Wei Zhang , Xiangli Cao , Chengjiang Li , Quande Qin , Jing Yang , Wenbo Li","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103766","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103766","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The widespread deployment of electric taxis (ETs) and their integration into the power grid have exacerbated load fluctuations. While Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology presents a viable solution, the frequent cycling of charging and discharging accelerates battery degradation, increasing battery replacement costs and potentially undermining the economic feasibility of ET adoption. This study examines ET in Shenzhen by leveraging GPS trajectory data to construct an analytical framework that integrates a map-matching algorithm with a multi-objective optimization model. The framework evaluates the economic implications and grid load fluctuations associated with ETs in parked and driving modes. The results of this study indicate that ETs can effectively reduce grid load fluctuations by up to 0.7683 % in parked mode through rational planning of charging and discharging time. Simultaneously, ETs achieve significant economic benefits of up to USD 5.92 per day. In contrast, the economic benefits in driving mode are lower than in parked mode, leading to a net loss of USD 5.92 per day for ETs with short discharge times. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing ET charging and discharging and enhancing grid stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103766"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Regional differences in the recycling capacity of retired batteries for new energy vehicles in China: A perspective of sales volume forecasting","authors":"Bingchun Liu , Jiali Chen , Yuan Gao , Xinming Zhang , Shiming Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103764","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103764","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the global energy transition and the advancement of carbon neutrality goals, new energy vehicles (NEVs), as a critical pathway to reduce fossil fuel dependence and carbon emissions, have experienced explosive growth in China. The first large-scale wave of battery retirements is imminent, and an inadequate recycling system could trigger environmental risks such as heavy metal pollution and resource waste. Although China has established a nationwide recycling network, significant regional imbalances persist at the provincial level. This study aims to reveal the distribution of end-of-life (EoL) batteries and the mismatch risks with recycling capacity, providing a basis for regionally differentiated policy formulation. To achieve this, a multi-factor model is developed integrating grey relational analysis, discrete wavelet transform, and bidirectional long short-term memory network to forecast NEVs sales across China's 31 provinces from 2024 to 2035. The dynamic Weibull distribution is employed to quantify EoL batteries, and the Pearson coefficient is utilized to evaluate recycling capacity matching. The results indicate that: (1) NEV market penetration will exceed 50 % by 2033, two years ahead of the policy target; (2) EoL batteries will surge starting in 2026, with Eastern China accounting for 42 % of the national total, emerging as the primary hub; (3) Recycling capacity gaps have already emerged in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, while other provinces will gradually enter phases of insufficient capacity post-2026. This study uncovers the spatio-temporal evolution of recycling networks and retirement volumes at the provincial scale, proposing optimization strategies such as regional risk alerts and cross-regional collaboration. These findings provide scientific support for governmental capacity planning and corporate investment decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103764"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144828065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Transport PolicyPub Date : 2025-08-05DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103763
Yan Li, Cong Wang, Xinxin Xia, Qingbo Huang
{"title":"Impact of China Europe Railway Express operation on green total factor productivity and spatial spillover effect in Chinese cities","authors":"Yan Li, Cong Wang, Xinxin Xia, Qingbo Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103763","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103763","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green total factor productivity (GTFP) is a core indicator for measuring high-quality urban development, and improving urban GTFP is key to enhancing the quality and sustainability of urban development. As an important channel for trade between China, Central Asia, and Europe, the opening and operation of the China Europe Railway Express (CRE) have significantly impacted China's urban development. This study focuses on the impact of the opening of the CRE on the GTFP of node cities. Using data from 274 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2020, the multiperiod difference-in-difference (DID) method and spatial DID method are used to investigate the impact of regularly operated node cities after the opening of CRE on urban GTFP. We use all operated node cities (including regularly and not regularly operations cities) and not regularly operated node cities as control group. The results reveal that, the regularly operated node cities of CRE has significantly promoted the GTFP of Chinese cities, but heterogeneity exists in city type, city size, and region. From a spatial perspective,the regularly operated node cities have a siphon effect on surrounding cities, but no effect on adjacent cities. Notably, the siphon effect extends in 700 km, and competition with other cities emerges between 800 km and 1200 km. Mechanism analysis reveals that urban foreign trade and industrial agglomeration (IA) within cities can improve the GTFP of node cities through the moderating effect of CRE. However, IA itself has an inhibitory effect on urban GTFP. Our results reveal the impact of CRE's operation on the GTFP of Chinese cities and provide some suggestions for cities that will be opening the CRE to improve their GTFP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103763"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144917950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Transport PolicyPub Date : 2025-08-05DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.036
Hongchang Li, Lingtong Kong, Xiaojun Zhao
{"title":"The evolution and influencing factors of digital freight structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration: A complex network analysis perspective","authors":"Hongchang Li, Lingtong Kong, Xiaojun Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital freight platforms have emerged as key enablers of efficiency in modern road transportation, particularly in integrating logistics resources and optimizing freight flows. This study examines the structural evolution and driving forces of the digital freight network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration, drawing on complex network theory. By applying centrality indicators and the standard deviation ellipse method, we identify a shift from a centralized to a multi-centered collaborative network between 2020 and 2023, accompanied by improvements in network efficiency and spatial resilience. The empirical analysis highlights transportation infrastructure and digital economy development as the main contributors to network optimization. Infrastructure investments enhance intercity connectivity, while digitalization fosters more synchronized flows of goods and information. Based on these findings, we propose policy recommendations to advance regional multimodal integration, improve logistics corridor planning, and strengthen digital platform governance, contributing to the high-quality development of regional freight systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103755"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Transport PolicyPub Date : 2025-08-05DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103762
Élyse Comeau , Siobhan Kelly , Timothy Ross
{"title":"Advancing the design and implementation of accessible taxi services: A study of driver and disabled rider experiences","authors":"Élyse Comeau , Siobhan Kelly , Timothy Ross","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103762","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103762","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accessible taxi services play an important role in supporting disabled people's mobility and their access to employment, education, healthcare, and social activities. This paper examines the accessible taxi service experiences of drivers and disabled riders in Toronto, Canada. Findings are based on a thematic analysis of 590 customer-reported complaints and 494 driver-reported incident reports provided by an accessible taxi brokerage contracted by the city's paratransit service. The findings reveal issues concerning safe service delivery, communication and disability awareness, and conflict management. To address these issues, we propose a three-part training program for drivers and riders, focused on disability awareness, physical safety, and conflict resolution. We then discuss policy implications and the roles of accessible taxi brokerages, paratransit agencies, and local governments in ensuring safe and effective accessible taxi services. We recommend incorporating a critical disabilities studies perspective into future policies and protocols to help with identifying and addressing ableist elements of accessible taxi and paratransit services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103762"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144810555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Transport PolicyPub Date : 2025-07-29DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.016
María Martínez , Rafael Molina , Obdulio Serrano , Montserrat Zamorano
{"title":"Port(s). A circular economy framework for sustainable ports in Spain","authors":"María Martínez , Rafael Molina , Obdulio Serrano , Montserrat Zamorano","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this study is to develop a circular economy framework for ports by integrating existing sustainability and circularity strategies while minimizing administrative complexity. Both the European Union and Spain have issued circular economy guidelines, highlighting Level(s), a framework designed for buildings. Spanish ports have been using a sustainability diagnostic system for over a decade, providing a robust foundation of relevant indicators. However, implementing a new framework must address a key barrier: the limited resources available to public administrations, which can hinder the adoption of additional strategies. To ensure feasibility, this study proposes a structured circular economy framework aligned with existing sustainability assessment tools. The framework follows the structure of Level(s), organized around macro-objectives derived through Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping and validated using the Delphi method. Each macro-objective is supported by quantifiable indicators to monitor circular economy implementation. These indicators focus on adapting existing sustainability indicators to the circular economy context, complemented by new ones where necessary. This research advances circular economy integration in ports by leveraging established systems and ensuring regulatory compatibility. The resulting model promotes sustainability and resilience while avoiding additional bureaucratic complexity, offering a practical and adaptable tool for decision-makers and port authorities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103735"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Transport PolicyPub Date : 2025-07-29DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.040
Meng Zhou , Chuqi Huang , Yuhan Yang , Jason Cao , Sixian Huang
{"title":"Exploring the nonlinear association between bike-sharing and household car ownership in Shenzhen, China","authors":"Meng Zhou , Chuqi Huang , Yuhan Yang , Jason Cao , Sixian Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although many studies have explored the influences of bike-sharing on car use, few have emphasized its potential to reduce the growth in car ownership, which encourages car dependence. Using travel survey and bike-sharing data from Shenzhen, a city with rapidly growing car dependence, we developed gradient boosting decision trees models to capture the nonlinear relationship between bike-sharing and car ownership, while controlling for household and built environment characteristics, as well as other travel alternatives. The results suggest that bike-sharing is a strong predictor of car ownership, and they have a negative and nonlinear association. The association between bike-sharing and car ownership is also stronger in suburban areas than in urban areas. The findings highlight the potential of shared micromobility services in alleviating car dependence and underscore the importance of extensive spatial coverage in reducing car ownership. Furthermore, bike-sharing could be a viable alternative in mitigating car ownership besides built environment interventions and rail transit investments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103759"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Transport PolicyPub Date : 2025-07-29DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.025
Ariel Arcos , Bernardo Lara , Dusan Paredes
{"title":"Enhancing private transportation: The positive spillovers from Santiago’s subway expansion","authors":"Ariel Arcos , Bernardo Lara , Dusan Paredes","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In Latin America, where traffic congestion is severe, governments often expand subway systems to reduce traffic. Evaluation of the efficacy of these investments poses challenges, notably due to the scarcity of real-time data. This study uses Uber Movement data, which provides detailed information on daily travel times, to examine the effects of subway expansions on car transportation in Santiago, Chile. We find that introducing a new subway line reduces car travel times by an average of 1.5% (0.309 min), with a greater reduction of up to 0.571 min during peak traffic hours.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103744"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}