Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"The potential of active modes to reduce short car trips. A data-driven approach","authors":"Hannah Gorges ,&nbsp;Giuliano Mingardo","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Motorized individual mobility is associated with numerous negative externalities, necessitating a shift toward more sustainable transport modes. One potential strategy is to replace short car trips with walking and cycling. This study aims to better understand the behavioral patterns underlying short car trips and to quantify potential CO₂ savings from their substitution. We analyze vehicle sensor data from the BMW Group, covering 89.4 million trips made by 149,709 vehicles in Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium between June 2021 and October 2022. On average, trips under 5 km account for 38.2 percent of all trips, while those under 1 km represent 9.2 percent. These shares show no economically significant variation across seasons, countries, spatial structures, engine types, or driver types. Replacing all trips under 5 km could result in an average monthly CO₂ saving of 7.4 kg per vehicle, while replacing all trips under 1 km would save 0.7 kg CO₂. These findings highlight the persistent reliance on cars, even for short-distance travel.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"168 ","pages":"Pages 1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of the China-ASEAN Open Skies Agreement on bilateral air transport","authors":"Mengting Liu ,&nbsp;Qiang Wang ,&nbsp;Changmin Jiang ,&nbsp;Wenliang Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper applies simultaneous equation model to investigate the impact of China-ASEAN Open Skies Agreement (CAOSA) on bilateral air transport using annual panel data spanning 2011 to 2019. Results show that CAOSA significantly increased both flight frequency and air passenger volume between China and ASEAN. Further heterogeneity analyses find that: (1) Compared to new ASEAN members, the positive effects on flight frequency and air demand are more pronounced between China and old ASEAN members. (2) CAOSA significantly increases flight frequency or air passenger volume in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta regions, while no statistically significant impact is found on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. (3) CAOSA significantly increases the flight frequency of China first-tier cities, and no significantly impact is found on China second-tier cities. (4) CAOSA has significantly positive impact on flight frequency and air passenger volume of medium- and long-haul air routes, while has no significantly impact on short-haul routes. Our findings are valuable complements to existing research on open skies, offering significant policy implications for the government and the industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"168 ","pages":"Pages 69-86"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143825606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic effects of maritime risk on macroeconomic and global maritime economic activity","authors":"Shuiyang Chen ,&nbsp;Bin Meng ,&nbsp;Bingcheng Qiu ,&nbsp;Haibo Kuang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.035","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.035","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We employ textual analysis on 1793935 news articles from seven newspapers to comprehensively measure adverse maritime events and associated risks across seven dimensions, resulting in the development of a news-based Maritime Risk Index (MRI). We validate the professionalism, effectiveness, and robustness of MRI in capturing maritime risks. The MRI adversely affects various aspects of the macroeconomic market performance, monetary policy, employment, and industrial production. Higher maritime risk predicts a decrease in the output of the shipping sector, reducing shipping capacity and significantly impacting global maritime trade activities. MRI innovations include crucial information about port congestion and surging freight rates, playing a key role in explaining and foreshadowing port congestion. It serves as a leading (price discovery) indicator in the dry bulk and container shipping markets and exhibits a bidirectional causal relationship with the tanker shipping market. Our findings not only advance the understanding of maritime transport system risks and their interaction with macroeconomic, but also offer practical applications for improving transport policy and practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 246-263"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143776360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) on productivity of major air cargo integrators","authors":"Seock-Jin Hong ,&nbsp;Anming Zhang ,&nbsp;Ferhat Caliskan ,&nbsp;Yavuz Idug","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) on the productivity of major air cargo integrators: DHL, FedEx, and UPS. It employs a two-stage method to assess their performance. In the first stage, a non-parametric free disposal hull approach, combined with principal component analysis, estimates the technical productivity of the integrators. The second stage utilizes dynamic panel regression to analyze the influence of ESG factors and external variables on productivity. The results indicate that DHL has demonstrated more efficient performance over time, while UPS has shown less efficiency. Additionally, the study evaluates the effects of ESG factors on productivity, revealing that greenhouse gas emissions and accident rates have a positive impact. Conversely, external factors, such as air freight rates and the COVID-19 pandemic, negatively affect productivity. Managing ESG initiatives is particularly challenging due to rapid industry growth and various external influences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 295-306"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Examining the impact of spatial inequality in socio-demographic and commute patterns on traffic crash rates: Insights from interpretable machine learning and spatial statistical models","authors":"Pengfei Cui ,&nbsp;Mohamed Abdel-Aty ,&nbsp;Chenzhu Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaobao Yang ,&nbsp;Dongdong Song","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traffic crash rates are often closely related to the region's socio-demographic, commuting behavior, motivated by the risks associated with increased region density and excessive congestion. However, crash rates of different severities may vary considerably due to socio-spatial disparities and the mitigation behaviors adopted across regions. Thus, this study elucidates the intricate effects of socio-demographic dynamics and commuting behavior on overall and fatal traffic crash rates across Florida's counties, with particular emphasis on the underlying factors of spatial inequality. Employing an interpretable machine learning model, specifically eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), we demonstrate its superiority in detecting spatial heterogeneity and the complex effects of various factors compared to traditional spatial statistical models, e.g. Spatial Lag Model (SLM) and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression model (MGWR). A comprehensive simulation experiment was designed to validate the dependability of modeled fittings, which confirms XGBoost as a reliable alternative to conventional spatial statistical models, particularly when dealing with datasets that including complex effects including spatial lag, spatial heterogeneity, non-linear effects and potential interaction effects. Furthermore, the totally empirical findings for Florida reveal the spatial variations in overall and fatal crash rates, correlating significantly with socio-demographic and commute pattern variables. An endogeneity test has been conducted initially for empirical datasets, accompanied by strategies to eliminate the biasing effect of endogenous variables on subsequent modeling process. Finally, key variables include population demographics, commute duration, education levels, unemployment rates, and intersection density produce heterogeneous effects on overall and fatal traffic crash rates. Notably, the study dispels the conventional belief that higher overall crash rates directly correlate with higher fatal crash rates in the same regions, underscoring the importance of distinct analysis. Policy measures should focus on improving accessibility to road infrastructure and healthcare services, with tailored approaches for sparse and densely populated areas. These findings underscore the need to address spatial inequalities in transportation infrastructure and policy measures to reduce traffic crash rates and improve road safety across all regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 222-245"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143760661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bike-sharing, why not? A framework of utility perceptions of BSSs' non-users based on qualitative data","authors":"Sebastian L. Grüner,&nbsp;Matthias Kowald","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Bike-sharing-systems (BSS) are crucial for reducing carbon emissions in individual transportation and optimizing spatial and mobility efficiency. However, BSSs are not fully utilized, especially as primary means of transportation for daily commutes. Feedback from users has been the main source for evaluating BSSs and determining its utility so far. Research on non-users is lacking, despite their significant portion of the population. Our research addresses this gap by investigating perceptions and usage-barriers of non-users.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Our research uses focus group discussions (FGD) with 42 commuting non-users of BSSs conducted in Q4 2022 and Q4 2023. Segmented FGDs are composed based on sociodemographic criteria such as gender (50 %/ 50 %) and family status (children in household yes/no). We identify and categorize non-userś perception and views on BSSs by drawing on expectancy-value theory and means-end-chain theory. We apply deductive and inductive coding, and our results are validated by Krippendorff's alpha.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>A framework of system attributes and their effects is developed. We identify twelve functional main themes (augmentations of mobility options, app registration and use, bikes and BSS-stations, physical exertion, expenditure of time, connectivity and intermodality) contributing to five specific consequences (social desirability, simplicity of system use, successful path accomplishment, straightforward and non-binding, flexibility and spontaneity, social desirability). Aside from functional drawbacks (e.g. physical exertion, limited connectivity), the primary obstacle for non-users is a dominant convenience of existing mobility options and a lack of information on system use and on beneficial use cases.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Our findings suggest a stronger focus on non-user perspectives to identify critical issues to increase attractiveness of BSSs. Practitioners may lower adoption barriers (usage information, app registration, physical exertion, connectivity etc.) and emphasize communication of affective use cases and system benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"168 ","pages":"Pages 220-243"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Renegotiation drivers in Brazilian airport concessions","authors":"Fabiana Peixoto de Mello ,&nbsp;Francisco Gildemir Ferreira da Silva ,&nbsp;Viviane Falcão","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the factors influencing the renegotiation of airport concession contracts in Brazil, focusing on the period from 2013 to 2023. It encompasses 59 airports, representing approximately 90 % of passenger movement in the country, and examines concessions awarded across seven rounds. Using a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) with a probit function and panel data, the analysis identifies significant predictors of renegotiation. The findings reveal that macroeconomic instability, particularly exchange rate volatility, is the primary driver of renegotiations, highlighting the financial vulnerability of airport concessions to external shocks. Regulatory constraints, including fee caps and mandated investments misaligned with demand, further exacerbated financial strain on operators. While competitive bidding and high premiums contributed to financial pressures, the main challenge lay in the underestimation of macroeconomic risks rather than the structure of concession agreements themselves. These results underscore the importance of integrating macroeconomic risk management into future concession models to enhance financial resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"169 ","pages":"Pages 116-132"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143903387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of subsidy efficiency on bus electrification: A participatory system dynamic modeling","authors":"Alyson L.P. Rodrigues ,&nbsp;Liana Cipcigan ,&nbsp;Dimitris Potoglou ,&nbsp;Dominic Dattero ,&nbsp;Peter Wells ,&nbsp;Sônia Regina da Cal Seixas","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the effectiveness of government subsidies in promoting the adoption of Battery Electric Buses (BEBs) and mitigating CO₂ emissions to illustrate how political and contextual factors interact in this implementation. Case studies from Wales and Brazil were chosen to demonstrate results in different national contexts and identify differences and similarities in electrification initiatives. The system dynamics (SD) models are established through group model building (GMB) involving interdisciplinary workshops conducted with local researchers from both countries. Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) were employed to describe the system in terms of causal connections and mutual influences. The simulated results reveals that the static subsidy efficiency in 2030 for Brazil and Wales correspond to 43 % and 64 %, respectively. The emissions avoided per BEBs unit corresponds to approximately 129.848 tons CO₂/year and 109.310 tones CO₂/year, respectively. The originality of this research results from the development of flexible models as a decision tool for the electrification of public transport. Therefore, the findings are useful to both researchers and policymakers involved in crafting action plans of bus transit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 210-221"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143760659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expanding the understanding of universal design beyond technical solutions and physical environment – 8 policy intervention areas","authors":"Anja Fleten Nielsen,&nbsp;Iratxe Landa-Mata","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mobility is essential for enabling people to work outside their homes and participate in a wide range of social activities. Moreover, the freedom of mobility—often taken for granted—is a crucial aspect of citizens' quality of life. Despite this, substantial portions of the population experience barriers that constrain their mobility. This paper demonstrates that adopting a holistic approach to universal design is more effective in reducing social exclusion for people with disabilities and making the public transport system accessible to as many people as possible. This is achieved by broadening the scope of user groups' needs and moving beyond universal design approaches that primarily focus on technical interventions and the physical environment. Based on a literature review of studies on universal design in transport systems, we identify a comprehensive set of barriers experienced by a wide range of user groups and the necessary interventions to mitigate these barriers. User groups include people with cognitive, intellectual, and psychosocial impairments, as well as those with respiratory conditions (asthma, allergies, COPD), gastrointestinal issues, pain, and seizure disorders, in addition to the classical impairments that research and policy have traditionally focused on (visual, hearing, mobility). Furthermore, we address the needs of user groups such as children, the elderly, and people with strollers. Our findings illustrate that policy measures must address organizational, individual, and social environments, in addition to the physical environment, to create a universally designed transport system for all.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 157-177"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using ZSG-DEA and inverse DEA to predict resource allocation for road traffic safety in China","authors":"Ying Zhao ,&nbsp;Jiang-Hong Zhu ,&nbsp;Yan-Wei Zhang ,&nbsp;Meng-Yu Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The issue of road traffic safety in China has consistently been a focal point of research within the academic community. Previous literature has proposed the use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models to evaluate safety efficiency. However, few scholars have examined the associated resource allocation issues or predicted future resource distribution. Consequently, this study aims to forecast resource allocation for future road traffic safety. We utilize road traffic safety indicators from 2012 to 2022 to calculate the resource allocation for 2025 across three aspects. Firstly, we employ the zero-sum gains Data Envelopment Analysis (ZSG-DEA) model in conjunction with the Gray Model (GM(1,1)) and the Criteria Importance Though Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC) method to predict the three factors influencing road traffic safety. Secondly, we utilize the inverse DEA model of frontier changes to forecast the necessary investments aligned with the planning objectives. Finally, we apply machine learning methods to predict output. The results indicate that: (1) In certain provinces, the quota for the three factors influencing road traffic safety is limited, resulting in increased pressure for future development. (2) Under the established planning objectives, some provinces require substantial investment, which should be judiciously managed. (3) Certain provinces exhibit high predicted output but must identify the underlying reasons for their low efficiency to enhance overall output. In summary, our research provides data-driven support and recommendations for decision-makers in establishing future planning goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 101-115"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}