How geopolitical risk affects the market performance of airline stocks?

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103778

Xin Yue Song , Chi Wei Su , Meng Qin

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Given the susceptibility of the aviation industry to events such as terrorist attacks and wars, geopolitical risk must be carefully considered. The study employs the quantile connectedness approach based on sample data from January 2014 to March 2024 to evaluate the dynamic spillover effects between geopolitical risk (GPR) and airline stock returns, further revealing the impact of geopolitical tensions on both normal and extreme market conditions. The research finds that connectivity is especially accentuated during turbulent market environments and is intensified during geopolitical events such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, dynamic analysis further demonstrates that, compared to its peripheral role in normal markets, the relationship between GPR and airline stocks becomes more pronounced during turbulent market environments, and at certain times, with GPR transforming into an emitter at certain points in time. Consequently, the government can formulate policies against geopolitical shocks and ensure the stability of the aviation sector, while investors should carefully assess the associated risks and prudently allocate their investments in airline stocks.

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地缘政治风险如何影响航空股的市场表现？

考虑到航空业对恐怖袭击和战争等事件的敏感性，必须仔细考虑地缘政治风险。本研究基于2014年1月至2024年3月的样本数据，采用分位数连通性方法评估地缘政治风险（GPR）与航空公司股票收益之间的动态溢出效应，进一步揭示地缘政治紧张局势对正常和极端市场状况的影响。研究发现，在动荡的市场环境中，连通性尤其突出，在2019冠状病毒病和俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突等地缘政治事件期间，连通性得到加强。此外，动态分析进一步表明，相对于其在正常市场中的外围作用，在动荡的市场环境中，在某些时间，GPR在某些时间点转变为发射器，GPR与航空股之间的关系变得更加明显。因此，政府可以制定应对地缘政治冲击的政策，确保航空业的稳定，而投资者则应该仔细评估相关风险，谨慎配置航空股的投资。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.