Exploring the macroeconomic drivers to electric vehicles sales in India- A panel data-based approach

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103818

Vijeta Singh , Varsha Nerlekar , Jitendra Kumar

{"title":"Exploring the macroeconomic drivers to electric vehicles sales in India- A panel data-based approach","authors":"Vijeta Singh , Varsha Nerlekar , Jitendra Kumar","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103818","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, and promoting non-fossil fuel-based transport mechanisms is one of the key ways to accomplish this goal. In this context, electric vehicles (EVs) can make a positive contribution to reducing air pollution and mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. India has a dynamic electric vehicle (EV) market, and the Economic Survey for 2023 predicts that India's EV market will experience a 49 % compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2022 and 2030. The present study aims to investigate the macroeconomic determinants driving EV sales in India. Using panel data from 19 states/union territories (UTs)for two-wheeler EVs between 2015 and 2021 and applying the dynamic panel and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimators, the study concluded that state net domestic product (SNDP) per capita, number of bank branches, per capita power availability, and presence of EV policy had a positive impact on two-wheeler EV sales while higher motor spirit consumption and inflation had a negative bearing on the two-wheeler EV sales. Based on the empirical results obtained, policy implications have been discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103818"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transport Policy","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X25003610","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

India has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, and promoting non-fossil fuel-based transport mechanisms is one of the key ways to accomplish this goal. In this context, electric vehicles (EVs) can make a positive contribution to reducing air pollution and mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. India has a dynamic electric vehicle (EV) market, and the Economic Survey for 2023 predicts that India's EV market will experience a 49 % compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2022 and 2030. The present study aims to investigate the macroeconomic determinants driving EV sales in India. Using panel data from 19 states/union territories (UTs)for two-wheeler EVs between 2015 and 2021 and applying the dynamic panel and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimators, the study concluded that state net domestic product (SNDP) per capita, number of bank branches, per capita power availability, and presence of EV policy had a positive impact on two-wheeler EV sales while higher motor spirit consumption and inflation had a negative bearing on the two-wheeler EV sales. Based on the empirical results obtained, policy implications have been discussed.

查看原文本刊更多论文

探索印度电动汽车销售的宏观经济驱动因素——基于面板数据的方法

印度承诺到2070年实现净零排放，而推广非化石燃料运输机制是实现这一目标的关键途径之一。在这种情况下，电动汽车（ev）可以为减少空气污染和减少温室气体（GHG）排放做出积极贡献。印度拥有一个充满活力的电动汽车（EV）市场，《2023年经济调查》预测，印度电动汽车市场在2022年至2030年间的复合年增长率（CAGR）将达到49%。本研究旨在调查推动印度电动汽车销售的宏观经济决定因素。该研究利用2015年至2021年间19个邦/联邦直辖区（UTs）的两轮电动汽车面板数据，并应用动态面板和两阶段最小二乘（2SLS）估计器，得出结论：邦人均国内净产值（SNDP）、银行分支机构数量、人均电力供应和电动汽车政策的存在对两轮电动汽车的销售产生了积极影响，而较高的汽油消费和通货膨胀对两轮电动汽车的销售产生了负面影响。根据所获得的实证结果，讨论了政策含义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.