Decarbonizing transport: EV production versus conventional vehicles

Countries striving to achieve net-zero targets face significant challenges from growing emissions, which remain a key driver of environmental pollution. Addressing this issue requires evaluating the role of both conventional motor and electric vehicle production. This study examines the role of motor and electric vehicle production (EV) in transport carbon emissions across 24 countries from 2010 to 2022. The study employs the CS-ARDL approach to address the potential cross-sectional dependence. The vehicle production presents a non-linear relationship with carbon emissions, as motivated by the STIRPAT framework and Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The findings reveal a U-shaped relationship between motor vehicle production and transport emissions. Specifically, emissions initially decline with increased production but begin to rise once output surpasses approximately 4436 units annually, indicating that unchecked expansion of conventional vehicles exacerbates environmental degradation in selected countries. In contrast, EV production exhibits an inverted U-shaped curve: while early-stage expansion slightly raises emissions due to energy-intensive manufacturing, production levels beyond 234 units annually lead to significant emission reductions, with estimates showing up to a 14 % decrease in CO₂ intensity. Furthermore, gross capital formation increases transport emissions, whereas globalization and urbanization reduce them. These results align with SDG 11, particularly target 11.2 on promoting sustainable transport systems and target 11.6 on reducing the environmental impact of cities, highlighting the need for greener mobility and urban infrastructure in vehicle-producing economies. This study emphasizes that effective regulation of conventional vehicles alongside the promotion of electric mobility is essential for achieving sustainable reductions in transport-related emissions.