{"title":"Inside the black box: how consistent are global food security crisis analyses?","authors":"Erin Lentz , Kathy Baylis , Hope Michelson , Chungmann Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The world relies on analyses by the United Nations-facilitated Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) to identify where populations are food insecure and to quantify the severity of these crises. IPC sub-national analyses are designed to be comparable over space and time in the more than 30 countries in which the IPC operates. Humanitarian agencies appear to regard these findings as authoritative and comparable, and as of 2024, used IPC analyses to guide more than six billion dollars of annual aid allocations. We study the consistency and comparability of IPC food insecurity analyses across time and space. Drawing on 1,849 IPC subnational analyses covering 742 million people from fifteen countries between 2019 and 2023, we show that IPC analyses face significant challenges related to data availability and food security measurement, resulting from underlying food security indicators that are often discordant. We find that the vast majority of IPC subnational analyses are consistent with IPC technical guidance, but that this guidance permits a wide range of classifications for a given set of food security indicators. We also find evidence that IPC subnational analyses vary in the way they use food security data, often weighing food security indicators differently across locations. While variation in how analyses use food security indicators can plausibly reflect varying contextual factors across countries, we find evidence that analyses weight indicators differently across time for the same location. Finally, we show that analyses do not treat closely correlated food security indicators as substitutes, suggesting inconsistency in the treatment of food security indicators across analyses. We discuss implications of these findings for policy and for the interpretation and use of IPC analyses by researchers and policymakers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103028"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-26DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103011
Bertha Lilian Mkandawire , Ken Miura
{"title":"Intraseasonal Variations in Time Use, Food Security, and Health Outcomes among Women in Rural Malawi","authors":"Bertha Lilian Mkandawire , Ken Miura","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The sequential nature of agriculture poses significant challenges to rural women in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in managing health and balancing farm and domestic work across different periods of the agricultural cycle. Despite its importance, empirical evidence on these intraseasonal dynamics remains limited. This study investigates intraseasonal variations in time use, food security, and anthropometric outcomes among female caregivers in 300 farm households in rural Malawi, using panel data collected at four points during the 2022/2023 agricultural season. Results show that women’s work hours increase during the lean period, reducing leisure time. Food insecurity also worsens during this period, contributing to declines in women’s nutritional status, particularly as measured by mid-upper arm circumference. Fluctuations in body weight further suggest community-wide structural dynamics within the agricultural season beyond individual health, labor supply, and household food insecurity. Overall, the findings underscore the need for policies that account for within-season variation—particularly the pre-harvest hunger period—to improve food security, nutritional outcomes, and, ultimately, women’s welfare in rural Malawi.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103011"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145620574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103030
Gizem Yeter , Margherita Masi , Emanuele Dolfi , Ernesto S. Marrocco , Yari Vecchio , Piermichele La Sala , Felice Adinolfi
{"title":"Voices in the loop: policy networks shaping circular food consumption","authors":"Gizem Yeter , Margherita Masi , Emanuele Dolfi , Ernesto S. Marrocco , Yari Vecchio , Piermichele La Sala , Felice Adinolfi","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The circular economy has emerged as a viable alternative to the existing linear model for achieving sustainable food production and consumption. To identify the present structure of the circular economy at the policy level within the food sector, we engaged individuals involved in policymaking, referred to as a policy network. This paper presents the primary perspectives of the policy network on the adaptation and implementation of circular food consumption practices by using the Q methodology. This analysis examines the complex interplay of governance, incentives, collaborative engagement, and community-oriented strategies in achieving circularity in food consumption. Our results revealed four distinct yet complementary factor groups indicating that the transition towards circular food consumption practices should be built on societal models that emphasize resilience, shared responsibility, and shared governance, thus delivering not only a sustainable food system but also a more equitable one. In conclusion, the findings indicate that the transition entails more than a mere technical adjustment or behavioral change; it represents a complex transformation shaped by the values, priorities, and capacities of the involved policy networks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103030"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-17DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103005
Wolfgang Stojetz , Piero Ronzani , Jeanne Pinay , Marco d’Errico , Tilman Brück
{"title":"Shocking social safety: Evidence from violence and drought in North-east Nigeria","authors":"Wolfgang Stojetz , Piero Ronzani , Jeanne Pinay , Marco d’Errico , Tilman Brück","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Polycrises created by violent conflict and climate change are ubiquitous. Yet, the impacts of conflict and climatic shocks on human behavior and welfare have largely been studied in isolation. This paper studies the joint impact of conflict and climatic shocks on households’ social safety nets in fragile settings. Drawing on unique panel survey data from 1,293 households in North-east Nigeria, we document that experiencing a violence shock increases the strength of households’ social safety nets (SSN) when they do not experience a simultaneous drought shock. Yet, experiencing a violence shock <em>decreases</em> SSN strength when they experience a drought shock in addition. This perilous interaction between violence and drought shocks is concentrated in poorer local environments. When the local level of economic resources is high, in relative terms, the positive impact of a violence shock on SSN is dominant. However, when the level of economic resources is low, the influence of droughts shocks rises substantially and experiencing both a drought and a violence shock diminishes social safety drastically. The effect is driven primarily by the exhaustion of informal networks such as kinship- and neighbor-based transfers. Our findings emphasize the need for concerted social protection programs that not only account for the compounding vulnerability from poverty, conflict and climatic change but also recognize the fragility of informal support systems that form the backbone of resilience in fragile settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103005"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102982
Caitlin Dutta
{"title":"Food effects of the 2021 expanded child tax credit","authors":"Caitlin Dutta","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102982","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102982","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Insufficient food is a hardship faced by many U.S. households. Several U.S. social safety net programs aim to improve these households’ food conditions. In this paper I examine effects of the 2021 expanded child tax credit on food insufficiency. I use a difference-in-differences design to assess the heterogeneous impacts of the credit’s monthly cash transfers to households with children. I find suggestive evidence that highlights the value of heterogeneity in policy evaluation and allows me to comment on the targeting of the policy and further policy implications. I find the payments significantly decreased self-reported food insufficiency for treated households relative to the control with larger effects for low-income, Black, Hispanic, low-education, and single-parent households. Additionally, households interacting with less accessible Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs saw larger effects of the payments than those with more accessible programs. Households facing a higher cost of living also saw larger food insufficiency effects than those facing a lower price level. I contribute to the literatures on the effects of cash transfers on food sufficiency and on the heterogeneous effects of government policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 102982"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145414110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103029
Minhao Yan , David R. Just , Anne T. Byrne , Dongyue Zhang
{"title":"The role of location in private food assistance: client travel patterns and accessibility","authors":"Minhao Yan , David R. Just , Anne T. Byrne , Dongyue Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use cell phone location data to examine the social welfare impacts of spatial access to food pantries in the Southern Tier of New York State. Using weekly travel patterns of those living in census tracts identified as having high rates of food insecurity and the location and operating hours of pantries, we calculate the additional travel cost required to access a food pantry. Using this same method, we can examine the impact of relocating pantries or opening/closing pantries on social welfare. We find that strategically introducing new pantries in rural counties could improve welfare. Alternatively, urban counties appear to be much more affected by the limitations of current operating hours than by the geolocation of pantries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103029"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-08DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103012
Grâce Kassis , Tina Rambonilaza
{"title":"Public perceptions of land-policy-for-local-food goals: findings from a discrete choice experiment study","authors":"Grâce Kassis , Tina Rambonilaza","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.103012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the last decade, the relocation of food supplies has gained relevance in many developed countries. Additionally, the literature on local food systems has shed light on the strategic role of land use control and public regulation of access to farmland in the emergence of pioneering initiatives. Yet a deeper understanding of what contributes to citizen support is essential for local policymakers to achieve land policy goals aimed at promoting local food production. This study draws on a discrete choice experiment to examine public preferences for policy packages involving specific targets for farmland uses and land regulation instruments (including a financial contribution). The survey was conducted to a sample of 700 residents living in France the Isère <em>département</em>. The econometric analysis identified two distinct groups with contrasting preferences. A minority living far from the urban centre, despite being indifferent to change, expressed a positive valuation of the planning of urban agriculture and of making use of public land for cultivation of field vegetables. This scenario echoes actions taken by some municipalities to offer locally produced food in school canteens. Conversely, people living in the urban centre or surrounding areas expressed preferences and high WTP for a proactive policy geared towards the use of public land for smaller farms and totally organic agriculture. This group is also found to place less value on planning. Overall, the policy scenarios envisioned by each group of citizens are consistent with their consumption behaviours. Research limitations and perspectives are then discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103012"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145733355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-12DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102999
Doris Läpple , Sophie Thoyer , Goedele Van den Broeck , Pauline Lécole , Yann de Mey , Jaap Sok
{"title":"Farmers’ Voices in European Protests: Diverse Complaints, Emotional Tones, and Policy Responses","authors":"Doris Läpple , Sophie Thoyer , Goedele Van den Broeck , Pauline Lécole , Yann de Mey , Jaap Sok","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102999","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102999","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The 2024 farmers’ protests across Europe signaled widespread dissatisfaction in the agricultural sector. While low farm incomes and restrictive environmental regulations are commonly cited grievances, little is known about underlying motivations and individual farmers’ reasons for protesting. This study explores individual farmers’ protest motivations in Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands to gain a deeper understanding of the diverse concerns shaping agricultural discontent across Europe. We analyze rich text data from 2232 farmers, collected through surveys using an open-ended question designed to elicit unprompted, top-of-mind protest reasons. By using a combination of hand and AI-assisted coding, we quantify protest reasons across countries, assess the emotional tone of farmers’ answers, and explore how this aligns with policy responses. Our findings indicate that farmers’ main protest reasons differ across the four countries, with German farmers mainly complaining about bureaucracy, French farmers about financial reasons, Belgian farmers expressing diverse complaints, while Dutch farmers focus mainly on the political environment. The emotional tone of farmers’ answers reveals that specific, targeted complaints are more often expressed in an annoyed angry tone, while broader topics seem to trigger aggressive anger. Linking farmers’ protest reasons to national and EU policy responses shows that, while some key complaints received adequate policy attention, environmental complaints were disproportionately prioritized by EU policymakers and some Member States. The findings from this study have important implications with the potential to improve the effectiveness of policy responses by contributing to the identification of adequate solutions to ease farmers’ grievances.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 102999"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145517457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-05DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102994
Wenyan Xu , Ming Gao , Shenggen Fan , Chen Zhu
{"title":"Impacts of high-standard farmland construction on farmers’ income in China: A comparative analysis of moderate-scale farmers and smallholders","authors":"Wenyan Xu , Ming Gao , Shenggen Fan , Chen Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102994","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102994","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In order to ensure food security and increase agricultural productivity, the Chinese government has implemented the high-standard farmland construction (HSFC) project. However, it is still unknown whether it can effectively serve as a new pathway for increasing moderate-scale farmers' and smallholders' income. Therefore, this study utilizes 66,750 samples from the 2019–2022 National Rural Fixed Observation Points Survey data, and 2SLS results indicate that HSFC increases moderate-scale farmers' total, agricultural, and nonfarm income by 1.30%, 1.06%, and 1.99%. Among smallholders, total income and nonfarm income increases 0.19% and 0.35%, while agricultural income drops 0.78%. Mechanism evidence shows that HSFC affects household income via changes in land transfer, mechanization, hired-labor input, and participation in nonfarm work. A heterogeneity analysis shows that the income-increasing effect of HSFC is greater among farmers who are more educated, male, or younger. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that HSFC may widen the income gap between farmers. Therefore, alongside the expansion of HSFC, particular attention should be given to vulnerable groups, with targeted support in credit access, mechanization services, and technical training to ensure equitable access to benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 102994"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145463621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102980
Lijiao Hu , Yuqing Zheng
{"title":"Do food safety certifications improve the safety of our food system? evidence from the U.S. Meat, Poultry, and egg industry","authors":"Lijiao Hu , Yuqing Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102980","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102980","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Private food safety certifications have become increasingly popular in the global agri-food supply chain over the last three decades. We examine a fundamental yet unaddressed question of whether food safety certifications make our food system safer. Focusing on the U.S. processing industry for meat, poultry, and eggs, the most likely contaminated foods, we matched unique establishment-level food safety certification data collected over the period of 2015–2018 with the microbial testing data from the government for processing establishments. By applying a penalized maximum likelihood method to address the rare event problem in the data, we found that the certification to the British Retail Consortium food safety standard leads to a decrease in the probability of testing positive for <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> by 0.3 and two percent, respectively, and the certification to Safe Quality Food standard leads to a decrease in the probability of testing positive for <em>Campylobacter</em> and <em>Listeria</em> by one and 0.4 percent, respectively. Our results provide justification for firms to adopt certifications and for governments to use certifications to augment and supplement government food safety regulation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 102980"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145414172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}