Food Policy最新文献

Deconstructing fertilizer price spikes: Evidence from Chinese urea fertilizer market

IF 6.8 1区经济学

Food Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102829

Zhepeng Hu , Lei Yan , Jinghong Yuan , Xiaoli Etienne

{"title":"Deconstructing fertilizer price spikes: Evidence from Chinese urea fertilizer market","authors":"Zhepeng Hu , Lei Yan , Jinghong Yuan , Xiaoli Etienne","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent fertilizer price spikes in 2021–2022, coupled with government interventions by major exporting countries, have raised global concerns about food security. This study investigates the key drivers of urea prices in China—the world’s largest producer and a major exporter. First, we analyze price transmission between China’s domestic spot and export urea markets, finding no cointegration even prior to the export restrictions introduced in October 2021. Next, we employ a structural vector autoregression model to examine domestic urea price spikes, using a heteroskedasticity-based identification strategy that allows for smoothly transitioning covariances. We decompose urea prices into four structural shocks: supply shocks driven by energy price changes, demand shocks linked to crop price fluctuations, export demand shocks, and market-specific idiosyncratic shocks unrelated to the first three. The findings reveal that rising energy costs and idiosyncratic factors were the main drivers of urea prices in China from 2018 to 2023, while shocks to corn prices and export demand had a smaller impact. Overall, the results indicate that recent export restrictions have had limited influence on domestic urea prices, calling into question the effectiveness of China’s October 2021 export restrictions as a price stabilization measure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 102829"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143512200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

India’s export restrictions and response of African and Asian retail rice prices

IF 6.8 1区经济学

Food Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102832

Ronald Jeremy S. Antonio , Ashok K. Mishra , David Dawe , Valerien O. Pede

引用次数: 0

Fish as food: Prioritizing domestic fish consumption to reduce the health burden

IF 6.8 1区经济学

Food Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102828

Shujuan Xia , Jun’ya Takakura , Kazuaki Tsuchiya , Takashi Yamakawa , Wenchao Wu , Chae Yeon Park , Tomoko Hasegawa , Shinichiro Fujimori , Kiyoshi Takahashi

{"title":"Fish as food: Prioritizing domestic fish consumption to reduce the health burden","authors":"Shujuan Xia , Jun’ya Takakura , Kazuaki Tsuchiya , Takashi Yamakawa , Wenchao Wu , Chae Yeon Park , Tomoko Hasegawa , Shinichiro Fujimori , Kiyoshi Takahashi","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102828","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102828","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The current fish trade increases fish availability and provides essential nutrients to most countries globally. However, many countries still consume less fish than they produce. A health-sensitive trade policy could help address this imbalance. In this study, we examined how prioritizing domestic fish consumption in some net-exporting countries with low fish consumption could improve fish availability and impact global and regional health burdens. Using bilateral fish trade data from 2010 to 2019 and diet-disease relationships, we compared the impact of current trade versus trade patterns (focused on domestic consumption) on reducing deaths from ischemic heart disease (IHD), the world’s leading cause of death. Our results showed that the current trade system delivered health benefits and could have prevented approximately 130,000 IHD deaths worldwide; one-third of these benefits went to high-income countries, where health gains were mainly transferred from net-exporting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with relatively high IHD death rates. Shifting a portion of exports to prioritize domestic consumption in net-exporting countries may reduce IHD deaths by 26% in LMICs and prevent an additional 15,400 IHD deaths globally compared with the current trade. Moreover, it would only cause a 0.7% reduction in health benefits in net-importing countries and no reduction in low- and lower-middle-income net-importing countries. Thus, increasing fish consumption in countries with low fish intake could be more effective in reducing the global burden of disease. Our findings could assist policymakers in developing health-sensitive policies to improve health outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102828"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Input subsidies, fertilizer intensity and imbalances amidst climate change: Evidence from Bangladesh

IF 6.8 1区经济学

Food Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102825

Jaweriah Hazrana , Aaisha Nazrana , Ashok K. Mishra

{"title":"Input subsidies, fertilizer intensity and imbalances amidst climate change: Evidence from Bangladesh","authors":"Jaweriah Hazrana , Aaisha Nazrana , Ashok K. Mishra","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102825","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102825","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates whether input subsidies to rural households with exposure to droughts affect fertilizer application rates. The study uses a comprehensive panel dataset of rice plots from the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey. The study uses a heteroskedasticity-based instrumental variable approach (Lewbel estimator) to account for the potential endogeneity of input subsidies on input usage. Findings show that while input subsidies are generally associated with increased fertilizer application, the effect is attenuated by household vulnerability to climate shocks. Input subsidies widen the gap between recommended and actual fertilizer usage for urea but narrow it down to diammonium phosphate and muriate of potassium. However, the aggregate effect on balanced fertilizer application is a higher degree of imbalance when households are exposed to climate shocks. The analysis highlights the heterogeneous effect of subsidies on fertilizer use across different farm sizes, seed varieties, and soil quality. The heterogeneities underscore the need for targeted subsidy programs and complementary policies to promote balanced fertilizer application while addressing climate change adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 102825"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

IF 6.8 1区经济学

Food Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823

David J. Spielman , Serge Mugabo , Gracie Rosenbach , Sosthene Ndikumana , Gilberthe Benimana , Chantal Ingabire

{"title":"Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda","authors":"David J. Spielman , Serge Mugabo , Gracie Rosenbach , Sosthene Ndikumana , Gilberthe Benimana , Chantal Ingabire","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fertilizer subsidies are a prominent feature of many agricultural development strategies in sub-Saharan Africa, but few countries have the necessary data to make rapid decisions about their management in the face of exogenous shocks. This was the case in Rwanda following the rapid increase in international fertilizer prices in 2021–22. Working within a constrained fiscal space that followed the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Rwanda aimed to revise its fertilizer subsidy system to accommodate higher fertilizer import pric-es without compromising progress against its agricultural growth targets. This paper explores both the economic analysis and policy process that shaped decision-making around Rwanda’s fertilizer subsidy system during the period 2020–23. The paper centers on the design and application of a microsimulation model that estimated—almost in real time—the impact of increased fertilizer prices on crop production during this period. It then explores the policy outcomes that followed, emphasizing the scope for subsidy reductions even in the midst of crisis, the critical importance of strengthening agricultural data systems, and lessons for countries facing similar challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 102823"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143438224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to ”On the emission and distributional effects of a CO2eq-tax on agricultural goods—The case of Germany” [Food Policy 130 (2025) 102794]

IF 6.8 1区经济学

Food Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102818

Julian Schaper , Max Franks , Nicolas Koch , Charlotte Plinke , Michael Sureth

引用次数: 0

Assessing consumers’ valuation for Front-of-Package ‘Health’ labeling under FDA guidelines

IF 6.8 1区经济学

Food Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102804

Jianhui Liu , Bachir Kassas , John Lai , Di Fang , Rodolfo M. Nayga

{"title":"Assessing consumers’ valuation for Front-of-Package ‘Health’ labeling under FDA guidelines","authors":"Jianhui Liu , Bachir Kassas , John Lai , Di Fang , Rodolfo M. Nayga","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102804","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102804","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Suboptimal diets contribute significantly to diet-related chronic diseases and mortality in the United States. To address this, Front-of-Pack (FOP) labels have been proposed to help consumers make healthier food choices. In 2022, the FDA introduced 15 potential health labels aimed at providing critical information and nudging consumers toward healthier food choices, yet the effects of these labels on consumer preferences remain ambiguous. Using the Becker–DeGroot–Marschak mechanism in a laboratory experiment, this study investigates the influence of health and taste labels, and information provision, on consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for yogurt qualifying for the FDA-endorsed health label. Findings indicate that health labels alone reduce WTP, potentially due to perceived compromises on taste and skepticism towards health claims. However, the addition of credible information regarding FDA qualification mitigates these negative effects. Exploratory subsample analyses reveal that the health label is discounted among consumers who are nutritionally knowledgeable, health-conscious, pleasure driven, and frequent label users. However, providing information about the health label mitigates this discount among the former three types of consumers. The study underscores the importance of providing credible, detailed information and targeted educational campaigns to enhance the effectiveness of health labels. These insights can inform policymakers and stakeholders in developing more effective food labeling strategies to promote healthier dietary choices and improve public health outcomes. By unraveling the nuances of how consumers respond to health and taste labels, our research offers valuable guidance for designing labeling strategies that resonate with consumer values and preferences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"131 ","pages":"Article 102804"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reporting nutritional information on wine packaging: Does it affect consumers’ choices? Evidence from a choice experiment in Italy

IF 6.8 1区经济学

Food Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102800

Claudia Bazzani , Riccardo Scarpa , Diego Begalli , Roberta Capitello

{"title":"Reporting nutritional information on wine packaging: Does it affect consumers’ choices? Evidence from a choice experiment in Italy","authors":"Claudia Bazzani , Riccardo Scarpa , Diego Begalli , Roberta Capitello","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102800","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102800","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At the end of 2023, EU Commission mandated the adoption of nutritional labelling on wine products. This was intended to tackle irresponsible drinking behaviour and excessive energy intake from alcohol, but the alcohol industry stakeholders have remained skeptical. In this study, we seek clarification on: (1) whether nutritional labelling on alcoholic beverages can nudge consumers toward lower alcohol and hence lower calorie choices, (2) whether it can affect consumers’ evaluations for quality attributes, and (3) whether it beneficially affects choices by those who are most vulnerable. We conduct an online Choice Experiment on Italian consumers with a between-subjects approach, to simulate pre- and post-policy scenarios and observe choices by consumers who are informed about nutritional features (i.e. calorie content) and contrast these to those by uninformed consumers (i.e. the control group). We focus on red wine since, in Italy, wine is part of the traditional food diet and, at the same time, quality attributes represent a major component of product distinctiveness. Results from a Latent Class Random Parameter Logit Model (LC-RPL) weakly support nutritional labelling being an effective nudge toward low-alcohol wines, specifically in the case of less vulnerable consumers who are health-conscious, with lower BMI, who enjoy red wine during social gatherings and don’t typically read wine labels. Nutritional labelling on wine bottles either did not affect or enhanced mWTP for quality attributes. Consumers generally valued calorie content on wine packaging. This supports the implementation of nutritional labelling policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"131 ","pages":"Article 102800"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143261865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cutting VAT rate on food products in a high-inflation environment. Does it work out?

IF 6.8 1区经济学

Food Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102816

Krystian Jaworski , Jakub Olipra

{"title":"Cutting VAT rate on food products in a high-inflation environment. Does it work out?","authors":"Krystian Jaworski , Jakub Olipra","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102816","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102816","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In February 2022, the Polish government reduced the VAT rate on basic food products from 5% to 0% in order to curb elevated inflation. Using multiple state-of-the-art robust estimators within a dynamic difference-in-differences approach, we estimated that the VAT rate reduction initially contributed to an average 2.1–2.8% decrease in the prices of affected products. Therefore, the immediate pass-through of the tax reduction in retail food prices was limited (only 44.0–58.2%), resulting in a 0.3–0.4 percentage point decrease in headline inflation. The effect of the VAT rate cut reached its peak within 5 months, achieving an almost full pass-through of approximately 94.6%, which led to a reduction in headline inflation by about 0.7 percentage points. We argue that the high effectiveness of the VAT reduction in Poland would not have been possible without the active role of the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection. Lowering VAT rate limited the budgetary revenues by only 0.3% GDP (value equivalent to 0.5% of private consumption), which means that it was a relatively cost-effective tool in providing relief to households in a high-inflation environment, especially for poorer consumers with a higher share of food in total expenditures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"131 ","pages":"Article 102816"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Where to buy and what to eat: The relationship between purchasing channels and nutrient intake in Japan

IF 6.8 1区经济学

Food Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102831

Ryo Utsunomiya, Tomoaki Nakatani, Yasuhiro Nakashima

{"title":"Where to buy and what to eat: The relationship between purchasing channels and nutrient intake in Japan","authors":"Ryo Utsunomiya, Tomoaki Nakatani, Yasuhiro Nakashima","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102831","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Interventions in the food environment to improve nutrient intake are often proposed with the goals of reducing obesity and non-communicable diseases. Prior studies exploring relationships between the food environment and nutrient intake have assumed that most purchased food is consumed without examining direct correlations between purchasing channels and nutrient intake. This study addresses this research gap by analyzing correlations between purchasing channels, nutrient intake, and body mass index (BMI) using a unique dataset from Japan combining individual purchase records and nutrient intake data for men and women over 40 years of age. We also introduced a method to assess non-discretionary macronutrient intake ratios—proportions that remain stable across such factors as food access and demographics. Our results reveal a generally weak correlation between purchasing channels and both caloric intake and BMI; however, among individuals who are not overweight, frequent convenience store purchases were linked to lower caloric intake. We identified a non-discretionary macronutrient intake ratio, primarily carbohydrates, of approximately 3.5 % (standard error 9.7 × 10<sup>−5</sup>) in non-overweight individuals. After accounting for non-discretionary intake ratios, the correlation between purchasing channels and macronutrient intake ratios remained weak. Policies targeting discretionary nutrient intake may have potential to improve overall nutrient consumption, because factors beyond purchasing channels are more likely to influence discretionary intake.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"131 ","pages":"Article 102831"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0