Food PolicyPub Date : 2025-03-29DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102856
Camila Veneo C. Fonseca , Yasmin Proença , Ivette Luna , Maria Sylvia M. Saes
{"title":"Transformative policies in Brazilian agri-food systems: An analysis of family farm procurement under the national school feeding program","authors":"Camila Veneo C. Fonseca , Yasmin Proença , Ivette Luna , Maria Sylvia M. Saes","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102856","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102856","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Public procurement is a key policy tool for promoting more sustainable agri-food systems. In Brazil, the National School Feeding Program (PNAE) has played an important role in integrating family farmers into institutional markets, yet various factors affect their participation. This study investigates the most important factors influencing family farmers’ participation in public procurement under the PNAE. It examines three analytical dimensions: demographic characteristics, state capacities, and family farming features. Using logistic regressions and classification trees, the research finds that municipality density negatively impacts family farm procurement targets, while state capacities have positive effects. Agricultural characteristics such as the proportion of family farming establishments relative to all agricultural establishments, technical assistance, financing, and formalization also play significant roles. The findings underscore the importance of regional variables in Brazilian agricultural dynamics. By analyzing all Brazilian municipalities with both linear and nonlinear analytical techniques, this study contributes to understanding the effective implementation of the PNAE, providing valuable insights for researchers and public managers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102856"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143725332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2025-03-27DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102835
Hugo Morão
{"title":"The economic consequences of fertilizer supply shocks","authors":"Hugo Morão","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102835","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102835","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a fertilizer supply index to measure global fertilizer supply disruptions using text-mining analysis of newspaper articles from over 30 countries. The index captures events including export restrictions, tariff changes, raw material shortages, and international sanctions. Using a structural BVAR framework, the analysis examines how fertilizer supply shocks affect Portugal’s food industry across three dimensions: market activity (domestic and foreign turnover), output prices, and labor market dynamics. The results show that fertilizer supply shocks trigger immediate increases in output prices across both domestic and foreign markets, with firms passing input costs to consumers. Labor market responses are delayed: wages and hours worked remain stable initially before rising, consistent with delayed adjustment to inflation expectations. This research also provides new evidence on how a critical agricultural input shocks propagate through food supply chains in a small open economy, with implications for both policymaking and industry strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 102835"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143714426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2025-03-25DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102857
Jintao Yang , Bingbo Gao , Fang Xia , Hanlin Wei , Shenggen Fan
{"title":"Internalizing the external costs to achieve environmental and economic Goals: A Case study of rice production in China","authors":"Jintao Yang , Bingbo Gao , Fang Xia , Hanlin Wei , Shenggen Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102857","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102857","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the critical issue of internalizing externalities in grain production, a key challenge in aligning economic growth with environmental sustainability in agricultural policy, particularly in the context of cross-regional grain trade. Using data from 30,524 rice circulation samples across China, we map inter-provincial rice flows and quantify the external costs of rice production at the provincial level. Our finding indicates that total external costs reach 8,810.4 million CNY, including greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impacts resulting from the inefficient use of fertilizers and pesticides. To address this, we propose an external cost-sharing mechanism in which consuming provinces compensate producing provinces with 4,955.7 million CNY. This innovative framework aims to harmonize economic growth with sustainable rice production while establishing a solid foundation for implementing inter-provincial horizontal benefit compensation policies in China. Moreover, it serves as a valuable reference for cross-regional ecological compensation strategies. By addressing both economic and environmental dimensions, this study contributes to the discourse on sustainable agricultural policy and regional equity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102857"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143684040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2025-03-22DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102850
Christone J. Nyondo , Joyce Minofu , Joseph Goeb , William J. Burke , Daemon Kambewa , Regis Chikowo , Sieglinde Snapp
{"title":"The impact of site-specific soil-test-based extension advice on farm management in Malawi","authors":"Christone J. Nyondo , Joyce Minofu , Joseph Goeb , William J. Burke , Daemon Kambewa , Regis Chikowo , Sieglinde Snapp","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102850","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102850","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agricultural extension services in Africa face many challenges in reaching farmers with information for sustainable and improved crop production. A critical gap for many smallholders is a lack of knowledge of their soils, including soil organic carbon (SOC) content, a key soil health indicator driving fertiliser responsiveness and crop production. We use a randomised control trial (RCT) to estimate the causal effects of real-time diagnostics and soil carbon measurement to support behavioural change and farmers’ adaptive capacity to improve farm management practices. Treatment group farmers receive context-specific extension services through site-specific soil tests using a handheld reflectometer as a starting point for in-depth discussions with extension agents about soil management. The results suggest significant improvements in sustainable intensification within the treatment group, with gains in farmer experimentation and adoption of organic inputs and management practices in both the year of advice and one year later. Treatment farmers are 40 percent more likely to apply organic fertilisers, 18 percent more likely to incorporate crop residues into their soils, and 7 percent more likely to intercrop maize with a legume. Further, treatment farmers show better timing of inorganic fertiliser applications, though use decisions are largely unchanged. The widespread fertiliser subsidy program may have influenced this last finding. This research demonstrates that a low-cost soil testing tool combined with individualised soil management advice can influence farmers’ soil nutrient-management behaviours and improve the capacity of extension to deliver site-specific soil information. This can lead to marked improvements in the effectiveness of farm management practices and agricultural extension services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 102850"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2025-03-22DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102851
Jaime R. Luke , Glynn T. Tonsor
{"title":"U.S. public sentiment toward policy action targeting emissions from beef production","authors":"Jaime R. Luke , Glynn T. Tonsor","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102851","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102851","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many countries have begun introducing policies aiming to reduce emissions from beef production. Several strategies are being researched and developed to reduce such emissions. This study explores U.S. public sentiment toward various beef production emissions-reduction strategies and quantifies support for potential policy measures. Using data from a nationally representative survey, we find that feeding seaweed to cattle is the most preferred strategy followed by letting either the beef industry or the U.S. Department of Agriculture decide how to reduce emissions from beef production. The U.S. public shows greater support for subsidies versus mandates if they recognize that mandates could increase the price of beef. The strategy with the highest estimated subsidy support, as funded by the U.S. public, is seaweed. However, these subsidy levels are less than the projected cost of the product in practice, so producer adoption of seaweed as triggered by a U.S. public-supported subsidy is unlikely. A more plausible solution to subsidizing a subset of beef producers to reduce emissions may be connecting climate-concerned residents who are willing to fund a subsidy to producers who are willing to adopt climate-focused practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102851"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143684752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2025-03-21DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102852
Kelvin Mulungu , Dale T. Manning , Martina Bozzola
{"title":"Once bitten, twice shy? Direct and indirect effects of weather shocks on fertilizer and improved seeds use","authors":"Kelvin Mulungu , Dale T. Manning , Martina Bozzola","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102852","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102852","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Evidence suggests that negative weather shocks, such as droughts, can influence input use in agriculture by reducing available income and shaping farmers’ behavioral responses. Yet, the relative importance of these two pathways remains unclear. This study proposes a method to disentangle the direct (behavioral) and indirect (income) effects of a drought shock on the use of inorganic fertilizer and improved maize seed. We employed a two-way fixed-effects regression combined with causal mediation analysis and entropy balancing to account for income endogeneity on a rich farm-level data from 6058 smallholder households in Zambia in 2012 and 2015. Our results show that farmers who experienced a drought in the previous growing season are less likely to use inorganic fertilizer but more likely to use improved seeds. The indirect income effect accounts for approximately 10% of the total effect for both inputs, amplifying the direct effect for inorganic fertilizer while diminishing it for improved seeds. The contribution of the indirect effect increases with the severity of drought shocks, although the direct effect remains the dominant channel. We also provide suggestive evidence that changes in risk aversion drive behavioral responses, while access to credit mitigates the income effect. These results highlight how drought shocks influence the timing and type of technology adopted in agriculture. Understanding the relative importance of these direct and indirect effects offers critical insights for policies aimed at enhancing climate change adaptation and agricultural productivity in the developing world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"133 ","pages":"Article 102852"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2025-03-21DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102838
Annet Adong , Kate Ambler , Jeffrey R. Bloem , Alan de Brauw , Sylvan Herskowitz , A.H.M. Saiful Islam , Julia Wagner
{"title":"The unmet financial needs of intermediary firms within agri-food value chains in Uganda and Bangladesh","authors":"Annet Adong , Kate Ambler , Jeffrey R. Bloem , Alan de Brauw , Sylvan Herskowitz , A.H.M. Saiful Islam , Julia Wagner","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102838","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102838","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Intermediary firms within agri-food value chains — operating between the farmgate and retailers — typically account for at least as much, if not more, value added as the primary agricultural production sector of the economy, but little is known about how these small and largely informal firms conduct their business. Drawing on a set of innovative surveys implemented amid the arabica coffee and soybean value chains in Uganda and the rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh, we describe the financial activities of these intermediary firms. We document four sets of results. First, across all intermediary actors in our data the overwhelming majority of transactions are cash-based. Second, although many intermediary actors are un-banked, access to financial accounts varies considerably by value chain segment, commodity, and country. Third, while most intermediary actors report using mobile money for personal purposes, especially in Uganda, very few use mobile money to facilitate business transactions. Fourth, although intermediary actors frequently report exposure to risk, very few effectively manage this risk. We conclude by discussing how intermediary agri-food value chain actors represent an underappreciated population for the promotion of new technologies to improve outcomes among both intermediary actors themselves and smallholder farmers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102838"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143684038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2025-03-20DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102849
Jonas Stehl , Lutz Depenbusch , Sebastian Vollmer
{"title":"Global poverty and the cost of a healthy diet","authors":"Jonas Stehl , Lutz Depenbusch , Sebastian Vollmer","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102849","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102849","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Access to a healthy diet is a fundamental human need, yet a significant portion of the global population faces barriers to realizing it. Conventional poverty metrics are designed around actual food consumption by low-income people scaled to recommended caloric intake, which is often inadequate for lifelong health. We propose poverty lines based on the cost of a healthy diet, including elements of relative poverty, and explore their key metrics such as headcount ratios and the poverty gap. According to our proposed poverty lines, 2,283 to 2,865 million people were poor in 2022, facing a shortfall of US$ 1,657 to US$ 2,370 billion per year to meet their basic needs. This is in contrast to 654 million people who are considered to live in extreme poverty according to the World Bank’s conventional poverty line. Further, these poverty lines identify 286 to 868 million more people as poor compared to the Societal Poverty Line, with the majority of these individuals concentrated in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102849"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143684039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2025-03-20DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102836
John Buckell , David Palma , Stephane Hess , Susan A. Jebb , Carmen Piernas
{"title":"Taxing fat versus behavioural interventions: Multiple discrete–continuous extreme value (MDCEV) models and the PCSHOP randomized trial of shopping behaviour","authors":"John Buckell , David Palma , Stephane Hess , Susan A. Jebb , Carmen Piernas","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102836","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102836","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding food purchasing behaviours is complex because people make both choices among goods and volumes of those goods that they choose. We use the novel Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) model, capable of handling both aspects of behaviour, on real-world food shopping behaviour data from a clinical trial. We compared the impact of providing general dietary advice, general dietary advice plus personalised shopping advice, or taxation, and combinations thereof, on the amount of saturated fat in consumers’ shopping baskets, using simulation. We used supermarket loyalty card data from a randomized controlled trial of 111 adults with raised cholesterol in Oxfordshire (UK). A Danish fat tax simulation alone is less effective than the tax in combination with dietary and shopping advice. These data illustrate the potential of MDCEV models for these behaviours and, by extension, informing food policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102836"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143684037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Food PolicyPub Date : 2025-03-18DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102837
Victoria Tenenbaum, Andrea Vigorito
{"title":"Public transfers, food consumption and dietary diversity. The case of Tarjeta Uruguay Social","authors":"Victoria Tenenbaum, Andrea Vigorito","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102837","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102837","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Social protection systems in several Latin American countries are increasingly adopting prepaid magnetic cards to promote the consumption of food and other essential goods. However, little is known about how these transfers affect household expenditure and consumption patterns or their advantages over cash options in high- and middle-income countries. Based on a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that exploits programme assignment rules, we assess the effect of the Uruguayan <em>Tarjeta Uruguay Social</em> (TUS) on food expenditure patterns and a dietary diversity score (DDS). We also analyse non-food expenditure and its components, and three potential explanatory channels: the infra/extra-marginality of the transfer; labour market attachment of the beneficiaries; and self-reported consumption decisions within the household. We do not find effects regarding food expenditure and the DDS, which could be mainly associated with the infra-marginality of the transfer. However, poorer households receiving doubled TUS amounts show positive changes in DDS (3%) and expenditure on fruit (17%) and legumes (9%) relative to a control group. In addition, TUS increases spending on housing for all beneficiaries, which is also reflected in an improvement in the quality of housing materials. Although it does not change the balance between cash and credit purchases, it does lead to a reduction in indebtedness, appears to act as an income stabilizer. These elements suggest that, for most households, TUS behaves like a purely cash transfer.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102837"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143654578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}