Resources Conservation and Recycling最新文献

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From symbiosis to scarcity: evaluating disruption associated with decarbonisation to circular waste materials between the UK cement and steel sectors 从共生到稀缺:评估英国水泥和钢铁行业之间与脱碳和循环废物有关的破坏
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学
Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108560
Jacob W. Whittle , Madeline C.S. Rihner , Hisham Hafez , R.M.Eufrasio Espinosa , David I. Fletcher , Brant Walkley , Lenny S.C. Koh
{"title":"From symbiosis to scarcity: evaluating disruption associated with decarbonisation to circular waste materials between the UK cement and steel sectors","authors":"Jacob W. Whittle ,&nbsp;Madeline C.S. Rihner ,&nbsp;Hisham Hafez ,&nbsp;R.M.Eufrasio Espinosa ,&nbsp;David I. Fletcher ,&nbsp;Brant Walkley ,&nbsp;Lenny S.C. Koh","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The UK cement and steel industries are decarbonising rapidly to meet net-zero targets. This study explores the unintended consequences of these efforts, particularly the potential disruption of industrial symbiosis between sectors. Cement production in the UK increasingly relies on ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS), a low carbon supplementary cementitious material (SCM). However, the shift from primary to secondary steelmaking threatens domestic GGBS supply. This research uses material flow analysis, life cycle assessment, and economic modelling to evaluate future GGBS availability, carbon intensities, and supply chain vulnerabilities. Findings indicate that although the steel sector is expected to reduce its environmental impact, this will cause the cement sector to face a potential shortfall in domestic SCMs, increasing reliance on imports through cross-sector decoupling and stagnation of decarbonisation. Addressing these challenges is vital to ensure a sustainable cross-sector supply chain and support future UK and global infrastructure resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"224 ","pages":"Article 108560"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144896383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Data-driven strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions intensity while sustaining global rice production 以数据为导向的战略,在维持全球水稻生产的同时减轻温室气体排放强度
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学
Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108547
Chong Wang , Ning Luo , Jiangang Liu , Yanru Fang , Zhiming Qi , Shuo Li , Zhenzhen Gao , Yupeng Feng , Qingquan Chu , Hancheng Dai
{"title":"Data-driven strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions intensity while sustaining global rice production","authors":"Chong Wang ,&nbsp;Ning Luo ,&nbsp;Jiangang Liu ,&nbsp;Yanru Fang ,&nbsp;Zhiming Qi ,&nbsp;Shuo Li ,&nbsp;Zhenzhen Gao ,&nbsp;Yupeng Feng ,&nbsp;Qingquan Chu ,&nbsp;Hancheng Dai","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108547","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108547","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Greenhouse gas emissions intensity (GHGI, carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per unit grain yield) is a holistic metric to measure agricultural productivity and environmental risks. However, the potential for GHGI mitigation in global rice fields, considering diverse management practices and their spatial patterns, remains poorly understood. Here, using a data-driven approach, we scaled site-level observations to the global grid to quantify GHGI responses to various management practices. Global assessment demonstrated that four out of ten key management practices, including enhanced efficiency fertilizer, deep fertilization, biochar amendment, and non-continuous irrigation, reduced GHGI by 20.7–54.5 % while boosting rice yield by 3.3–10.6 %. These benefits were equivalent to carbon dioxide removal of 156.9–412.3 million tons and additional rice production of 25.8–81.5 million tons. Our findings identify key strategies that simultaneously reduce GHGI and maintain rice yield, highlighting the critical role and vast potential of sustainable solutions in supporting climate-smart rice production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"224 ","pages":"Article 108547"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144893829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of climate change on China's food security considering artificial intelligence level: Based on XGBoost and RIME-CNN-LSTM-ATT models 基于XGBoost和RIME-CNN-LSTM-ATT模型的气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学
Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108539
Qian Li , Hong Chen , Ruyin Long , Qingqing Sun , Zhiping Huang
{"title":"The impact of climate change on China's food security considering artificial intelligence level: Based on XGBoost and RIME-CNN-LSTM-ATT models","authors":"Qian Li ,&nbsp;Hong Chen ,&nbsp;Ruyin Long ,&nbsp;Qingqing Sun ,&nbsp;Zhiping Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108539","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108539","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Artificial intelligence (AI) plays a pivotal role in addressing the challenges of climate change and food security (FS). The current state of FS in China is evaluated from the perspectives of consumption and production. Six machine learning models are employed to explore the relationship among climate change, AI level and FS. A novel FS prediction model is proposed based on RIME-CNN-LSTM-ATT algorithm to predict FS trends under multiple scenarios. The results reveal that: The SHAP values of AI are all positive, indicating the significant potential of AI in enhancing FS. In major grain-producing region, temperature accounts for 58.6 % of the influence on FS, representing the primary driver. Rainfall and sunshine are identified as the main threats to FS in grain producing-consuming balance area. Under the baseline, SSP1+RCP2.6, and SSP2+RCP4.5 scenarios, China’s overall FS level will increase 2.30 %, 2.93 %, and 2.37 % by 2035, respectively, but decline by 6.68 % under SSP5+RCP8.5.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"224 ","pages":"Article 108539"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144890273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Marginal abatement costs of direct carbon emissions from municipal wastewater treatment plants: Insights for prioritizing pollution removal or carbon mitigation in collaborative control strategies 城市污水处理厂直接碳排放的边际减排成本:协作控制战略中优先清除污染或减少碳排放的见解
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学
Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108564
Runyao Huang , Junran Liu , Ange Song , Haoran Wu , Huiping Li , Jing Zhang , Hongtao Wang
{"title":"Marginal abatement costs of direct carbon emissions from municipal wastewater treatment plants: Insights for prioritizing pollution removal or carbon mitigation in collaborative control strategies","authors":"Runyao Huang ,&nbsp;Junran Liu ,&nbsp;Ange Song ,&nbsp;Haoran Wu ,&nbsp;Huiping Li ,&nbsp;Jing Zhang ,&nbsp;Hongtao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Municipal wastewater treatment plants (MWWTPs) possess potential on collaborative carbon-pollutant control, as they directly emit methane and nitrous oxide during biochemical treatment apart from indirect emissions. This study quantified marginal abatement costs (MACs) of direct emissions to characterize MWWTPs’ carbon-pollutant synergy degree and calculated carbon quota involving compliance state with China’s national discharge standard (GB 18918-2002) to identify priority on pollutant removal or carbon mitigation. Quantified from direct emissions measured in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO<sub>2</sub>-eq) and total oxygen demand (TOD) removal amount, 4594 MWWTPs’ MACs showed variation (1.292∼2.612 kg TOD/kg CO<sub>2</sub>-eq) with scale as the dominant factor. In quota, carbon reduction potential (5.89 million kg CO<sub>2</sub>-eq) prominently outweighed pollutant removal demand (0.10 million kg CO<sub>2</sub>-eq). Policy implications were proposed based on effects of scale economies and regional socioeconomic conditions. The evaluation framework of MACs and quota might also suit other countries’ MWWTPs to manage carbon footprint and guide low-carbon transformations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"224 ","pages":"Article 108564"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144890205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal air pollutant and carbon footprints of China’s coal sector and their synergetic mitigation pathway towards 2035 2035年中国煤炭行业大气污染物与碳足迹时空特征及协同减排路径
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学
Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108563
Yirong Wang , Jie Zhang , Xintong Song , Aiden Wang , Junjie Li
{"title":"Spatiotemporal air pollutant and carbon footprints of China’s coal sector and their synergetic mitigation pathway towards 2035","authors":"Yirong Wang ,&nbsp;Jie Zhang ,&nbsp;Xintong Song ,&nbsp;Aiden Wang ,&nbsp;Junjie Li","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s growing coal production exacerbates air pollution and carbon emissions; however, the spatiotemporal-explicit quantification of footprints and mitigation potential remains constrained by limited facility-level modelling. Here, we quantify the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of CO<sub>2</sub>, SO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, NMVOC, PM<sub>2.5</sub>, PM<sub>10</sub>, CO, and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions of coal sector using a comprehensive framework based on life cycle assessment method and facility survey data of China’s 12,378 coal mines operated during 2013–2022. Moreover, a synergetic mitigation pathway towards 2035 was predicted by defining 27 macro-micro coupled scenarios. The results showed that 208 technology configurations caused 1.67–27.59-fold variations in facility-level emission intensities, mainly determined by divergent mining geological conditions. Province-level compositional structure changes triggered antagonistic air pollutant-carbon intensities in 19 provinces, driven by uneven modernization progression. Our forecast for 2035 indicates that synergetic mitigation was achieved under the energy transition scenario, with 40–50 % CH<sub>4</sub> mitigation obtained by enhancing fugitive methane recovery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"224 ","pages":"Article 108563"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144887279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluation of sustainable aviation fuel based on life cycle prediction model 基于生命周期预测模型的航空燃料可持续评价
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学
Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108565
Wei Zhang , Ziyi Zhao , Chengjiang Li , Jing Yang , Quande Qin
{"title":"Evaluation of sustainable aviation fuel based on life cycle prediction model","authors":"Wei Zhang ,&nbsp;Ziyi Zhao ,&nbsp;Chengjiang Li ,&nbsp;Jing Yang ,&nbsp;Quande Qin","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is crucial for the aviation industry to achieve its 2050 net-zero emissions target. The energy consumption, environmental impacts, and economic costs of SAF vary significantly due to feedstocks and processes. This study applies life cycle assessment to evaluate SAF routes’ energy-environment-economy (3E) performance; uses the STIRPAT model to quantify key factors influencing aviation emissions; and then integrates 3E indicators of SAF and factors affecting aviation emissions into a system dynamics model simulating impacts of SAF routes and blending ratios on aviation emissions. The results show that: different SAF routes have their advantages in terms of 3E; reducing aviation demand and improving aircraft fuel efficiency are the key emission reduction levers; and under the set scenario of blending ratios of SAF and conventional jet fuel in 2050, only blending 85 % and 100 % SAF can achieve the 65 % carbon emission reduction target required by the aviation industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"224 ","pages":"Article 108565"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144890204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Differences in how we build: Material use and intensity in small multi-units’ buildings in Brazil, Canada, Greece, Nigeria and Switzerland 我们如何建造的差异:巴西、加拿大、希腊、尼日利亚和瑞士小型多单元建筑的材料使用和强度
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学
Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108548
Christiana Vann , Letzai Ruiz-Valero , Santiago Zuluaga , Tomer Fishman , Shoshanna Saxe
{"title":"Differences in how we build: Material use and intensity in small multi-units’ buildings in Brazil, Canada, Greece, Nigeria and Switzerland","authors":"Christiana Vann ,&nbsp;Letzai Ruiz-Valero ,&nbsp;Santiago Zuluaga ,&nbsp;Tomer Fishman ,&nbsp;Shoshanna Saxe","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growing global population is increasing the demand for housing at the same time as the ecological limits requires much more resource-efficiency. This study examines material use and intensity (MI) in small multi-unit buildings across five countries (Brazil, Canada, Greece, Nigeria, and Switzerland). Using detailed bottom-up material quantification the study compares 50 small multi-unit residential buildings - with 3 to 35 units - built between 2014 and 2024. Concrete use is dominant across countries, making up 75 % of the material mass, particularly in floors, slabs, and exterior walls. Security concerns are found to increase material use. Climate also has an impact on MI. Overall, building size and cultural preferences, including bedroom and bathroom sizes, drive material use. This research adds needed geographical diversity to our understanding of construction material use and insight on how building norms drive MI.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"224 ","pages":"Article 108548"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144878354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantifying the carbon circularity, climate and energy benefits of plastic recycling through circular flow analysis: Application to plastic packaging waste in Japan 通过循环流分析量化塑料回收的碳循环度、气候和能源效益:在日本塑料包装废弃物中的应用
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学
Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108549
Cheng-Yao Zhang , Jun Nakatani , Biying Yu , Yi-Ming Wei
{"title":"Quantifying the carbon circularity, climate and energy benefits of plastic recycling through circular flow analysis: Application to plastic packaging waste in Japan","authors":"Cheng-Yao Zhang ,&nbsp;Jun Nakatani ,&nbsp;Biying Yu ,&nbsp;Yi-Ming Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon circularity has attracted increasing attention alongside climate change impacts and fossil energy consumption in plastic recycling evaluations. Herein, we introduce the carbon flow and circular diagram (CFCD) method, a unified framework designed to assess plastic recycling by integrating carbon circularity, carbon neutrality, and fossil energy independence. CFCD visualizes carbon flows by mapping carbon inputs and outputs across various pathways. We apply our approach to the complex ecosystem of plastic packaging waste recycling in Japan. Our findings reveal that catalytic cracking preserves 56.8 % of carbon circularity, whereas mechanical recycling achieves moderate carbon circularity and climate benefit. High-efficient energy recovery delivers substantial climate and energy benefits with poor circularity. Gasification for ammonia production yields the highest energy benefit of 57.9 MJ/kg of waste yet is largely ineffective in improving carbon circularity, whereas the carbon capture and utilization emerges as a key strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"224 ","pages":"Article 108549"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144887280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Lifecycle eco-design potential of battery electric vehicles considering environmental and economic functions 考虑环境和经济功能的纯电动汽车生命周期生态设计潜力
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学
Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108546
Tong Liu, Yifan Gu, Guangwen Hu, Yufeng Wu, Qingbin Yuan, Huijing Hu, Tieyong Zuo
{"title":"Lifecycle eco-design potential of battery electric vehicles considering environmental and economic functions","authors":"Tong Liu,&nbsp;Yifan Gu,&nbsp;Guangwen Hu,&nbsp;Yufeng Wu,&nbsp;Qingbin Yuan,&nbsp;Huijing Hu,&nbsp;Tieyong Zuo","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108546","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108546","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transition of the automotive industry to electrification makes the eco-design potential of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) a critical focus. Using a framework integrating life cycle assessment, life cycle costing, and data envelopment analysis, we conducted module-oriented eco-design across diverse BEV types and analyzed its potential for the BEV industry. The results revealed significant differences in abiotic depletion potential and eutrophication among BEVs powered by different battery types. The average eco-efficiency of the vehicle body module was approximately 47 % and 16 % higher than that of the power battery and vehicle usage modules, respectively, indicating that the latter two modules had greater potential for eco-design. The pathway sensitivity of economic cost to environmental impact varied significantly across materials and lifecycle stages. Module-oriented eco-design showed positive effects of 10 %-25 % on BEVs and 15 % on the industry, respectively, and eco-designed BEVs exhibited superior environmental and economic performance compared with internal combustion engine vehicles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"224 ","pages":"Article 108546"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From waste to carbon benefits - A dynamic spatiotemporal model for assessing carbon reduction potential in urban concrete recycling systems 从废物到碳效益——一个评估城市混凝土回收系统碳减排潜力的动态时空模型
IF 10.9 1区 环境科学与生态学
Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108538
Xiangjin Wang , Beijia Huang , Xi Zhang , Qiong Liu , Yao Wang , Yuqiong Long
{"title":"From waste to carbon benefits - A dynamic spatiotemporal model for assessing carbon reduction potential in urban concrete recycling systems","authors":"Xiangjin Wang ,&nbsp;Beijia Huang ,&nbsp;Xi Zhang ,&nbsp;Qiong Liu ,&nbsp;Yao Wang ,&nbsp;Yuqiong Long","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urbanization has intensified the challenge of managing waste concrete, thereby making recycling essential for sustainable resource management. However, the absence of a methodology to assess the carbon reduction potential of municipal waste concrete recycling limits the accurate quantification of emission reduction potential. This study integrates material flow analysis and life cycle assessment to develop a dynamic model that captures regional spatial variations alongside temporal changes in energy consumption and technological advancement. Taking Shanghai as a case study, we project that waste concrete generation will peak at 18 million tons in 2052, with cumulative unrecycled waste reaching 290 million tons by 2060. Over the period 2023–2060, central districts generate 37.82% of waste but rely on peripheral processing, a spatial mismatch requiring cross-regional facility planning and phased capacity expansion strategies. Through scenario analysis, technological optimization (TO) scenario, which achieves a 48% reduction in baseline emissions, yields greater cumulative carbon benefits than the energy transition (ET) scenario; the synergistic optimization (SO) scenario yields the lowest cumulative carbon benefits, 95.4 kt CO<sub>2</sub>e. The scenario results indicate that deeper decarbonization may shrink carbon mitigation potential of recycled waste. This model developed in this study provides a practical tool to evaluate waste recycling benefits under different future scenarios and to inform regional decisions such as coordinated facility siting and capacity expansion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"224 ","pages":"Article 108538"},"PeriodicalIF":10.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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