Spatiotemporal air pollutant and carbon footprints of China’s coal sector and their synergetic mitigation pathway towards 2035

Abstract

China’s growing coal production exacerbates air pollution and carbon emissions; however, the spatiotemporal-explicit quantification of footprints and mitigation potential remains constrained by limited facility-level modelling. Here, we quantify the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of CO₂, SO₂, NO_x, CH₄, NMVOC, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, CO, and N₂O emissions of coal sector using a comprehensive framework based on life cycle assessment method and facility survey data of China’s 12,378 coal mines operated during 2013–2022. Moreover, a synergetic mitigation pathway towards 2035 was predicted by defining 27 macro-micro coupled scenarios. The results showed that 208 technology configurations caused 1.67–27.59-fold variations in facility-level emission intensities, mainly determined by divergent mining geological conditions. Province-level compositional structure changes triggered antagonistic air pollutant-carbon intensities in 19 provinces, driven by uneven modernization progression. Our forecast for 2035 indicates that synergetic mitigation was achieved under the energy transition scenario, with 40–50 % CH₄ mitigation obtained by enhancing fugitive methane recovery.