Reliability Engineering & System Safety最新文献_第6页

Enhanced verification of safety and security for advanced driver assistance systems 加强先进驾驶辅助系统的安全性验证

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111691

Lu Liu , Qi Sun , Liren Yang , Yu-Chu Tian , Chunjie Zhou

引用次数: 0

A single-layer dimension-reduced cubature method for sequential updating of the first two moments of the posterior failure probability 后验失效概率前两阶矩序列更新的单层降维方法

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111689

Zhuangbo Chen, Zhenzhou Lu

{"title":"A single-layer dimension-reduced cubature method for sequential updating of the first two moments of the posterior failure probability","authors":"Zhuangbo Chen, Zhenzhou Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111689","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111689","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of random inputs with uncertain distribution parameters and the gradual collection of new observations during the service life of a structure, the structure’s safety level can be tracked via the sequential update of the first two moments of the posterior failure probability. However, this requires repeated double-layer analysis for the estimation of the first two moments of the posterior failure probability as observations are gradually collected. To address the high cost of calculating the first two moments of the posterior failure probability, this study proposes a single-layer method featuring two main innovations. The first innovation is to equivalently derive the dimension-reduction integration expression of the first two moments of the posterior failure probability. This derivation improves the integrand behaviour and enables the efficient estimation of the first two moments of the posterior failure probability using a cubature formula. The second innovation is to construct a unified probability density function, on which the efficiency of estimating the first two moments of the posterior failure probability is enhanced by de-coupling the above-mentioned double-layer framework. The efficiency improvement resulted from both innovations of the proposed method is fully verified via numerical and engineering examples.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111689"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Resilience assessment of an integrated bus-rail network considering dynamic congestion propagation process under traffic congestion events 交通拥堵事件下考虑动态拥塞传播过程的公交轨道网络弹性评估

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111721

Jinqu Chen , Xiaowei Liu , Shaochuan Zhu , Yong Li , Bo Du , Yong Yin

{"title":"Resilience assessment of an integrated bus-rail network considering dynamic congestion propagation process under traffic congestion events","authors":"Jinqu Chen , Xiaowei Liu , Shaochuan Zhu , Yong Li , Bo Du , Yong Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111721","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111721","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the rapid pace of urbanization and the rising car ownership, traffic congestion events (TCEs) are becoming more prevalent, which have significantly affected the safety and reliability of urban public transport systems. Proper assessment of the resilience of integrated bus-rail networks to such disruptions is therefore of practical significance. However, the existing studies mainly focus on single transportation mode with limited attention to integrated bus-rail networks under TCEs. Moreover, the influence of the dynamic congestion propagation process on the network resilience is often ignored. To address these gaps, this study proposes a model to assess the resilience of an integrated bus-rail network under TCEs by considering the impact of the dynamic congestion propagation process. Experimental results imply that an integrated bus-rail two-layer network is more resilient to TCEs than the single layered bus network in Chengdu, and the influence of the dynamic congestion propagation process is critical in the resilience assessment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111721"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Complex system reliability modeling and analysis based on energy landscape 基于能源格局的复杂系统可靠性建模与分析

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111720

Bo-Yuan Li , Xiao-Yang Li , Rui Kang

{"title":"Complex system reliability modeling and analysis based on energy landscape","authors":"Bo-Yuan Li , Xiao-Yang Li , Rui Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111720","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111720","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Complex system reliability modeling and analysis are valuable to forecast large-scale failures and locate key elements for in-time interventions. Reductionist methods are challenging to emulate underlying mechanisms, while data-driven methods ignore causality. To bridge the gap between mechanistic interpretability and data-driven adaptability, a method based on statistical physics is proposed. A maximum entropy model is built to quantify system states’ probabilities, and material implication logic is introduced to represent bidirectional asymmetric causalities. Mapping probabilities to energies, all states form an energy landscape, and the state transitions, steady states, and attractive basins are identified. Further, critical elements are located, whose failures switch attractive basins and potential steady states from reliability to a large-scale failure. In practice, the proposed method can predict system states and guide the interventions on critical elements. In the case of the cascading failures in a network, with the observed nodes’ states, we can reconstruct failure propagations and locate hubs, showing the feasibility to balance physical explainability and data-based adaptability. In the case of the data center suffering burst traffic, the cascading failures caused by migrations and the critical states before collapses are identified from the statistical physical machines’ states, giving an insight to understand complex engineering systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111720"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluation of joint reliability of linear two-dimensional consecutive k-type systems in a zigzag structure 线性二维连续k型体系之字形结构节点可靠度评估

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111696

He Yi , Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan , Xiang Li

{"title":"Evaluation of joint reliability of linear two-dimensional consecutive k-type systems in a zigzag structure","authors":"He Yi , Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan , Xiang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111696","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111696","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we study in detail several linear two-dimensional consecutive <span><math><mi>k</mi></math></span>-type systems in a zigzag structure that include linear connected-<span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>k</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>r</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>-out-of-<span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>m</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>n</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>: F system, linear <span><math><mi>l</mi></math></span>-connected-<span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>k</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>r</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>-out-of-<span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>m</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>n</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>: F system without/with overlapping and their counterparts with <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>k</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>r</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> replaced by <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>k</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>r</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>-or-<span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>r</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>k</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>, when they have shared components. Joint reliability functions of these systems are derived with the use of finite Markov chain imbedding approach (FMCIA). Numerical examples are then provided for illustrating the computational process of the method developed here and its efficiency. Finally, some possible applications and generalizations of the established results are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111696"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Control strategies for order–disorder phase transition in crowd evacuation 人群疏散中有序-无序相变的控制策略

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111688

Wenfeng Yi , Wenhan Wu

{"title":"Control strategies for order–disorder phase transition in crowd evacuation","authors":"Wenfeng Yi , Wenhan Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111688","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111688","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crowd evacuation can undergo abrupt, hazardous shifts between ordered and disordered motion, yet how network topology and targeted interventions jointly shape this transition remains unclear. We integrate a dynamic, weighted small-world contagion layer with an extended social force model and design adaptive, topology-aware interventions that target high-degree (HD) and high <span><math><mi>k</mi></math></span>-shell (HK) nodes. Simulations map a risk-induced transition: low risk permits spontaneous recovery, medium risk triggers a critical collapse of alignment, and high risk locks the system into disorder. Targeting a small fraction of agents (10%–20%) lowers collective impatience and preserves alignment, with HD retaining more benefit at higher densities. In dual-exit rooms under high risk — where a short random-walk disorientation rule and a pressure–emotion coupling are active — raising alignment via targeted control reduces evacuation time, re-balances exit usage, and lowers peak contact forces. These effects remain robust across exit-width changes, increases in the long-range contagion probability <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>t</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span>, and moderate inter-individual heterogeneity. Analyses of real crowd recordings further show that HD and HK selections overlap only partially, supporting dynamic, hybrid policies that cover both dense cores and structural bridges. Together, the results provide a topology-aware control framework that links network structure to emergent evacuation behavior, with direct implications for planning, public safety, and crowd resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111688"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A novel data-driven risk assessment framework for improved inspection efficiency of port state control 一种新的数据驱动风险评估框架，提高港口国监督检查效率

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111710

Zhisen Yang , Xintong Liu , Zaili Yang , Qing Yu

{"title":"A novel data-driven risk assessment framework for improved inspection efficiency of port state control","authors":"Zhisen Yang , Xintong Liu , Zaili Yang , Qing Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111710","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111710","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate risk assessment of visiting vessels is of crucial importance for Port State Control (PSC) to ensure a highly-efficient inspection system. Although significant efforts are put forward, the inspection efficiency of PSC system still have large room for improvement, evident by deficiency records in major Memorandum of Understandings (MoUs). The ignorance of characteristics of deficiency types, as well as the lack of simultaneous consideration of probability and consequence, are among important factors making the assessment results unreliable. This research aims to develop a novel data-driven Bayesian network-based risk assessment framework to assist port authorities in assessing vessel risks accurately and selecting high-risk vessels for inspection efficiently. It makes new contributions by employing the new framework to investigate coastal ports located in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) for the first time. The findings reveal that the proposed risk assessment framework is a better risk classification tool and can deliver more precise results than the current ship risk profile. It is able to not only calculate the exact risk scores of visiting vessels, but more importantly distinguish their risks clearly even they are under similar conditions. Further, an improved vessel selection strategy is proposed for port authorities to ensure the accurate selection of high-risk vessels for inspection with limited resources and low costs dynamically, which is of great significance in better controlling substandard vessels with poor quality. This paper therefore provides insightful implications for practitioners to craft a highly-efficient inspection system, as well as develop a safer and more sustainable maritime transport.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111710"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Probabilistic evaluation for early wind turbine yaw misalignment detection 风电机组偏航偏差早期检测的概率评估

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111716

M.A. García-Vaca , J.E. Sierra-García , Matilde Santos

{"title":"Probabilistic evaluation for early wind turbine yaw misalignment detection","authors":"M.A. García-Vaca , J.E. Sierra-García , Matilde Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nowadays, one of the biggest challenges for wind turbines is to reduce operation and maintenance costs. Therefore, it is essential to develop predictive maintenance, anticipating failures early and thus avoiding unnecessary actions on the wind turbine. In this way, the uptime and performance of the turbine are maximized, and its useful life is extended. This work describes a general methodology for fault detection based on probabilistic models and its evaluation. This methodology combines a fault detection method based on the Fisher Test and the development of probabilistic models of wind turbine power curves. Several probabilistic models of power curves have been evaluated: Gaussian mixture model (GMM), Frank copula model, Gaussian mixture copula model (GMCM), Gaussian process regression (GPR) and epsilon-insensitive loss function support vector regression (ε-SVR). The results indicate that the Gaussian mixture copula model is the most efficient in terms of accuracy and computational cost. The detection of a wind turbine orientation misalignment error has been tested as a use case. It is shown how with this probabilistic approach it is possible to detect the fault in a short period of time from its appearance, 10–30 times faster than other techniques found in the literature with which it has been compared.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111716"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145120908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

If It Cannot Be Seen, Can It Be Quantified? Explicit and Implicit Risks in AV–HV Mixed Traffic 如果看不见，能量化吗？AV-HV混合交通的显性和隐性风险

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111717

Yulan Xia , Yan Zhang , Jiming Xie

{"title":"If It Cannot Be Seen, Can It Be Quantified? Explicit and Implicit Risks in AV–HV Mixed Traffic","authors":"Yulan Xia , Yan Zhang , Jiming Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111717","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111717","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mixed traffic of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and human-driven vehicles (HVs) poses complex safety challenges due to heterogeneous driving patterns. However, current risk assessment approaches predominantly address explicit risks, with limited attention to implicit risks hidden in driving dynamics. This study introduces a dual-perspective risk evaluation framework that jointly considers explicit and implicit risk in AV–HV interactions. Explicit risk represents the directly measurable collision threat from instantaneous motion states. It’s quantified by the reciprocal of extended time-to-collision (ETTC), integrating relative speed, distance, and motion vectors, then categorized into multi-level risk sets in the speed–distance domain. Implicit risk is reflected by underlying individual behavioral complexity and group driving heterogeneity that may precede risk conditions. It’s assessed via sample entropy to capture maneuver complexity, and group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to identify hidden heterogeneity in traffic flow. Applied to interweaving areas of highways and urban expressways, the framework reveals explicit and implicit risks during lane changes and car-following, and classifies three representative AV–HV trajectory clusters. The framework offers a dynamic, interpretable, and multi-scale depiction of mixed traffic risk, enabling proactive reliability enhancement and safety assurance for intelligent transportation systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111717"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-fidelity Kriging structural reliability analysis with the fusion of non-hierarchical low-fidelity models 融合非分层低保真模型的多保真度Kriging结构可靠性分析

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111662

Yushuai Che , Yizhong Ma , Hui Chen , Yan Ma

{"title":"Multi-fidelity Kriging structural reliability analysis with the fusion of non-hierarchical low-fidelity models","authors":"Yushuai Che , Yizhong Ma , Hui Chen , Yan Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111662","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111662","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adaptive Kriging is a common Bayesian statistical method and has founded wide application in structural reliability analysis. Multi-fidelity (MF) Kriging model can significantly reduce computational cost compared to single-fidelity Kriging model. However, research on MF Kriging reliability analysis remains relatively limited in the literature. Most existing MF Kriging approaches assume that reliability performance functions of varying fidelity levels follow a hierarchical nature, which is not applicable when the performance functions exhibit non-hierarchical fidelity levels across the input space. To handle this challenge, we develop a novel Bayesian adaptive MF Kriging method to integrate high-fidelity (HF) data with non-hierarchical low-fidelity (LF) Kriging models for reliability analysis. We first use the local correlation and variance-weighted fusion approach to fuse all the non-hierarchical LF models. Then, the hierarchical Kriging is employed for the construction of MF model based on HF data and the fused LF model. A new adaptive hierarchical refinement strategy is proposed. This strategy mainly involves a new hierarchical expected feasibility function (HEFF) for identifying the location and fidelity of the optimal sample simultaneously, and a low-fidelity-selection (LFS) algorithm based on Kriging-Believer approach to allocate simulations among non-hierarchical LF models. One numerical example and two engineering examples involving an aircraft tubing and an airfoil stiffener rib, are used to validate the performance of our method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111662"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0