{"title":"人群疏散中有序-无序相变的控制策略","authors":"Wenfeng Yi , Wenhan Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111688","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crowd evacuation can undergo abrupt, hazardous shifts between ordered and disordered motion, yet how network topology and targeted interventions jointly shape this transition remains unclear. We integrate a dynamic, weighted small-world contagion layer with an extended social force model and design adaptive, topology-aware interventions that target high-degree (HD) and high <span><math><mi>k</mi></math></span>-shell (HK) nodes. Simulations map a risk-induced transition: low risk permits spontaneous recovery, medium risk triggers a critical collapse of alignment, and high risk locks the system into disorder. Targeting a small fraction of agents (10%–20%) lowers collective impatience and preserves alignment, with HD retaining more benefit at higher densities. In dual-exit rooms under high risk — where a short random-walk disorientation rule and a pressure–emotion coupling are active — raising alignment via targeted control reduces evacuation time, re-balances exit usage, and lowers peak contact forces. These effects remain robust across exit-width changes, increases in the long-range contagion probability <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>t</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span>, and moderate inter-individual heterogeneity. Analyses of real crowd recordings further show that HD and HK selections overlap only partially, supporting dynamic, hybrid policies that cover both dense cores and structural bridges. Together, the results provide a topology-aware control framework that links network structure to emergent evacuation behavior, with direct implications for planning, public safety, and crowd resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111688"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Control strategies for order–disorder phase transition in crowd evacuation\",\"authors\":\"Wenfeng Yi , Wenhan Wu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111688\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Crowd evacuation can undergo abrupt, hazardous shifts between ordered and disordered motion, yet how network topology and targeted interventions jointly shape this transition remains unclear. We integrate a dynamic, weighted small-world contagion layer with an extended social force model and design adaptive, topology-aware interventions that target high-degree (HD) and high <span><math><mi>k</mi></math></span>-shell (HK) nodes. Simulations map a risk-induced transition: low risk permits spontaneous recovery, medium risk triggers a critical collapse of alignment, and high risk locks the system into disorder. Targeting a small fraction of agents (10%–20%) lowers collective impatience and preserves alignment, with HD retaining more benefit at higher densities. In dual-exit rooms under high risk — where a short random-walk disorientation rule and a pressure–emotion coupling are active — raising alignment via targeted control reduces evacuation time, re-balances exit usage, and lowers peak contact forces. These effects remain robust across exit-width changes, increases in the long-range contagion probability <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>t</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span>, and moderate inter-individual heterogeneity. Analyses of real crowd recordings further show that HD and HK selections overlap only partially, supporting dynamic, hybrid policies that cover both dense cores and structural bridges. Together, the results provide a topology-aware control framework that links network structure to emergent evacuation behavior, with direct implications for planning, public safety, and crowd resilience.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":54500,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Reliability Engineering & System Safety\",\"volume\":\"266 \",\"pages\":\"Article 111688\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":11.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Reliability Engineering & System Safety\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832025008889\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832025008889","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Control strategies for order–disorder phase transition in crowd evacuation
Crowd evacuation can undergo abrupt, hazardous shifts between ordered and disordered motion, yet how network topology and targeted interventions jointly shape this transition remains unclear. We integrate a dynamic, weighted small-world contagion layer with an extended social force model and design adaptive, topology-aware interventions that target high-degree (HD) and high -shell (HK) nodes. Simulations map a risk-induced transition: low risk permits spontaneous recovery, medium risk triggers a critical collapse of alignment, and high risk locks the system into disorder. Targeting a small fraction of agents (10%–20%) lowers collective impatience and preserves alignment, with HD retaining more benefit at higher densities. In dual-exit rooms under high risk — where a short random-walk disorientation rule and a pressure–emotion coupling are active — raising alignment via targeted control reduces evacuation time, re-balances exit usage, and lowers peak contact forces. These effects remain robust across exit-width changes, increases in the long-range contagion probability , and moderate inter-individual heterogeneity. Analyses of real crowd recordings further show that HD and HK selections overlap only partially, supporting dynamic, hybrid policies that cover both dense cores and structural bridges. Together, the results provide a topology-aware control framework that links network structure to emergent evacuation behavior, with direct implications for planning, public safety, and crowd resilience.
期刊介绍:
Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.