Reliability Engineering & System Safety最新文献

Multi-fidelity Kriging structural reliability analysis with the fusion of non-hierarchical low-fidelity models 融合非分层低保真模型的多保真度Kriging结构可靠性分析

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111662

Yushuai Che , Yizhong Ma , Hui Chen , Yan Ma

{"title":"Multi-fidelity Kriging structural reliability analysis with the fusion of non-hierarchical low-fidelity models","authors":"Yushuai Che , Yizhong Ma , Hui Chen , Yan Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111662","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111662","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adaptive Kriging is a common Bayesian statistical method and has founded wide application in structural reliability analysis. Multi-fidelity (MF) Kriging model can significantly reduce computational cost compared to single-fidelity Kriging model. However, research on MF Kriging reliability analysis remains relatively limited in the literature. Most existing MF Kriging approaches assume that reliability performance functions of varying fidelity levels follow a hierarchical nature, which is not applicable when the performance functions exhibit non-hierarchical fidelity levels across the input space. To handle this challenge, we develop a novel Bayesian adaptive MF Kriging method to integrate high-fidelity (HF) data with non-hierarchical low-fidelity (LF) Kriging models for reliability analysis. We first use the local correlation and variance-weighted fusion approach to fuse all the non-hierarchical LF models. Then, the hierarchical Kriging is employed for the construction of MF model based on HF data and the fused LF model. A new adaptive hierarchical refinement strategy is proposed. This strategy mainly involves a new hierarchical expected feasibility function (HEFF) for identifying the location and fidelity of the optimal sample simultaneously, and a low-fidelity-selection (LFS) algorithm based on Kriging-Believer approach to allocate simulations among non-hierarchical LF models. One numerical example and two engineering examples involving an aircraft tubing and an airfoil stiffener rib, are used to validate the performance of our method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111662"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Resilience assessment of power distribution systems based on structure varied dynamic Bayesian network under rainstorm disasters 基于结构变化动态贝叶斯网络的暴雨灾害下配电系统恢复力评估

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111660

Xiangyu Wu , Yuxin Zhao , Di Wang , Jingsi Huang , Kang Zheng

{"title":"Resilience assessment of power distribution systems based on structure varied dynamic Bayesian network under rainstorm disasters","authors":"Xiangyu Wu , Yuxin Zhao , Di Wang , Jingsi Huang , Kang Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111660","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111660","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resilience assessment is crucial in assessing the power supply capacity and guiding the planning and operation of the distribution systems. In recent years, frequent rainstorm-induced urban waterlogging poses a severe threat to power distribution systems, resulting in widespread and prolonged outages. This paper proposes a model-based resilience assessment framework to reveal the mechanistic impacts of such catastrophes on the structural disintegration of system topologies and their cascade effects on operational strategies. In the framework, the rainstorm and two-dimensional hydrodynamics model under spatiotemporal evolution are formulated combining the digital elevation model, and the rainstorm and waterlogging impact on critical infrastructures (CIs) is assessed as prior failure possibility. A structure varied dynamic Bayesian network is proposed combining with the prior failure possibility of CIs to achieve a posterior failure possibility considering the evolution of the system topology. The vulnerable nodes are identified and the system resilience is evaluated according to the redistribution of the expected optimal power flow under the cascade spread of disasters. Finally, the proposed framework is applied to the IEEE 33-node system. It is prove that the system resilience is overestimated by 15.96%, only considering the prior failure probability of the CIs. By relocating the batteries to the three most vulnerable nodes that identified based on the SVDBN approach, the system losses can be reduced by 5.6%.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111660"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Towards effective decision support for structural design and risk management: An information-dependent probabilistic system representation enhanced with support vector machine and unfair sampling 面向结构设计和风险管理的有效决策支持：基于支持向量机和不公平采样的信息依赖概率系统表示

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111600

Wei-Heng Zhang , Jianjun Qin , Da-Gang Lu , Yue Pan , Michael Havbro Faber

{"title":"Towards effective decision support for structural design and risk management: An information-dependent probabilistic system representation enhanced with support vector machine and unfair sampling","authors":"Wei-Heng Zhang , Jianjun Qin , Da-Gang Lu , Yue Pan , Michael Havbro Faber","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111600","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111600","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Structural design and risk management typically involve uncertainties related to structural performance and loading conditions, which must be effectively managed to ensure compliance with safety requirements. Additionally, the relationships among parameters influencing structural performance are often complex and not easily discernible, thereby complicating the decision-making process. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a decision support framework based on the concept of information-dependent probabilistic system representation. The framework aims to identify unacceptable design parameters in structural design and enhance risk management by updating probabilistic models of uncertain parameters for similar structures when new observational information becomes available. To overcome the computational challenges of structural reliability analysis, a support vector machine (SVM) is employed as a surrogate model for the finite element analysis typically used to evaluate the performance of engineering structures. Additionally, to handle the imbalance issue in the SVM training dataset, an unfair sampling method is introduced. An illustrative example involving a reinforced concrete structure subjected to earthquake loading is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111600"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cavitation reliability assessment of aviation fuel centrifugal pumps combining kriging and subset simulation important sampling 结合kriging和子集模拟的航空燃油离心泵空化可靠性评估

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111706

Bo Liu , Jia Li , Wei Zhang , Lei Shi , Keke Li

{"title":"Cavitation reliability assessment of aviation fuel centrifugal pumps combining kriging and subset simulation important sampling","authors":"Bo Liu , Jia Li , Wei Zhang , Lei Shi , Keke Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111706","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111706","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cavitation in aviation fuel centrifugal pumps can lead to impeller erosion and performance degradation, posing significant reliability risks. To efficiently assess low-probability cavitation failures under multidimensional uncertainty, this study proposes a surrogate-based reliability analysis framework named AK-IEI-SSIS, which integrates Kriging modeling, an Improved Expected Improvement (IEI) learning function, and Subset Simulation Importance Sampling (SSIS). The framework adaptively refines sampling near failure boundaries to enhance accuracy and computational efficiency. Its performance is validated through multiple benchmark cases involving nonlinear and high-dimensional systems. A Python-based parametric platform is also developed to orchestrate parametric modeling, meshing, CFD simulation, and reliability analysis. Applied to an aviation fuel centrifugal pump, the framework accurately quantifies cavitation-induced failure probabilities as low as 5.63 × 10⁻⁴ using only 202 CFD evaluations, achieving a 99 % reduction in computational cost compared to Monte Carlo methods. Although demonstrated on a specific pump, the framework is applicable to reliability assessment of rotating fluid machinery under uncertainty, supporting reliability analysis and maintenance planning for next-generation aerospace propulsion systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111706"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Importance analysis of non-coherent Multi-State System 非相干多态系统的重要性分析

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111618

Elena Zaitseva, Peter Sedlacek, Vitaly Levashenko

{"title":"Importance analysis of non-coherent Multi-State System","authors":"Elena Zaitseva, Peter Sedlacek, Vitaly Levashenko","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111618","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Non-coherent Multi-State System (MSS) is a special case in the point of view of reliability analysis and needs special methods for its reliability quantification. The specificity of this system behavior is a possibility of its performance degradation depending on the improvement of the functioning of its component, or its performance improving depending on the component work degradation/failure. Non-coherent system, mostly investigated for Binary-State System (BSS) where the system and its components have only two performance levels as functioning and failure. The case of MSS where the system and its components can have more than only two performance levels is studied fragmentarily. In this paper, a new method for importance analysis of non-coherent MSS is proposed. This method is based on the use of Logical Differential Calculus for the definition and calculation of Importance Measures (IM). In particular, the Structural Importance and Birnbaum’s Importance measures are defined and considered for a non-coherent MSS. These measures allow us to investigate the influence each of the system components has on its behavior, taking into consideration the specifics of a non-coherent MSS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111618"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Non-contact automated identification of earthquake-induced micro damage in substation equipment system based on local damping parameter screening with a surrogate model 基于替代模型局部阻尼参数筛选的变电站设备系统地震微损伤非接触自动识别

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111704

Jiayi Wen , Longquan Wang , Xiaoxuan Li , Yantai Zhang , Yang Wei

{"title":"Non-contact automated identification of earthquake-induced micro damage in substation equipment system based on local damping parameter screening with a surrogate model","authors":"Jiayi Wen , Longquan Wang , Xiaoxuan Li , Yantai Zhang , Yang Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Substation equipment systems may experience invisible micro-damage to local components after an earthquake, which can lead to electrical functionality failure. Such micro-damage typically has little effect on equipment stiffness or natural frequency, posing challenges to conventional damage monitoring techniques. As a result, post-earthquake inspections currently rely on manual diagnosing of each piece of equipment, making rapid recovery a challenging task. Given that micro-damage is likely to alter the damping of materials, this paper proposes a method to detect local damping variation of a system, aiding in the swift screening of potentially damaged components. The approach is based on a surrogate theoretical model developed from the motion equilibrium equations of separated components within a system and requires only measured ground motion and displacement at the top of the equipment. The method is solved in the frequency domain, effectively suppressing the influence of undamaged components and highlighting abnormalities caused by damaged parts. A key output, the indicator <em>EG</em>, is susceptible to local damping variation and allows for both the localization and quantification of damage. When applied to randomly generated damage scenarios, the method is shown to accurately identify different damage modes, including both single- and multiple-component damage modes. The damage localization accuracy is 100%, and the estimation error for quantifying damping variation is within ±5%. This method offers a new path for efficiently detecting minor post-earthquake damage in substation equipment systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111704"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Determining the service life of a gondola car with an increased floor body safety factor 在增加底板安全系数的情况下确定吊篮车的使用寿命

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111670

Denys Baranovskyi , Maryna Bulakh , Mariia Bulakh

{"title":"Determining the service life of a gondola car with an increased floor body safety factor","authors":"Denys Baranovskyi , Maryna Bulakh , Mariia Bulakh","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111670","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111670","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a newly optimized design for the gondola car body floor aimed at reducing mechanical wear and significantly extending service life without increasing structural weight or material costs. The scientific novelty of this study lies in the integration of structural optimization, probabilistic modeling, and finite element analysis to enhance the service life and reliability of the gondola car body floor while maintaining material and weight constraints. The study proposes a new mathematical model, which is built on the basis of reliability theory taking into account the physical and mechanical characteristics of the material and the load - it allows for accurate prediction of the service life of the gondola car based on the wear of the body floor structure. The study also introduces the concept of an operational safety factor, which accounts for variability in load and material strength, providing a more realistic measure of structural performance under real-world conditions. Using a combination of finite element analysis, statistical modeling, and a novel reliability-based mathematical approach, the mechanical behavior of the redesigned floor was evaluated under dynamic load conditions. The analysis demonstrated that the proposed floor geometry reduced equivalent stresses by up to 91.6 % and improved the safety factor by up to 12.9 times compared to traditional designs. Statistical models, including normal and Weibull distributions, confirmed the extended durability of the redesigned gondola car body, with service life improvements ranging from 1.22 to 2.07 times. Notably, the use of cost-effective plain carbon steel was maintained, ensuring practical applicability. These results validate the effectiveness of structural optimization in enhancing the performance, reliability, and economic viability of freight rail vehicles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111670"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Building condition assessment methodology to support public finance and disaster risk management 建筑状况评估方法，以支持公共财政和灾害风险管理

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111641

Gonzalo Pita , Francisco Michati , Shaochong Xu

{"title":"Building condition assessment methodology to support public finance and disaster risk management","authors":"Gonzalo Pita , Francisco Michati , Shaochong Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111641","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111641","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural disasters can severely damage a country’s public buildings and infrastructure, often resulting in substantial increases in public debt. To develop cost-effective mitigation strategies, governments need information of their public buildings’ current physical condition—yet such data is often unavailable, and surveying numerous buildings is impractical. While several analytical models exist to characterize structural condition, a more granular modeling approach would better support the design and evaluation of targeted fiscal interventions. This paper introduces a probabilistic systems-aggregated condition assessment methodology that reflects how overall building condition emerges from localized deterioration processes. The methodology disaggregates a building into the levels at which deterioration naturally occurs — components, systems, and critical load paths — and models it using techniques tailored to each. Condition estimates are then coherently aggregated to characterize the compound effect on the entire structure. This structured approach affords modelers significant flexibility to represent diverse structural configurations and materials. Case study results align with expected service lifespans from the literature and resemble Weibull-type deterioration functions. The model offers a valuable tool for public agencies’ work in public finance management, risk management, and preventive maintenance planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111641"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Varying effects of risk factors on economic losses from fishing vessel accidents: A Bayesian random-parameter quantile regression with heterogeneity in means 不同风险因素对渔船事故经济损失的影响：均值异质性的贝叶斯随机参数分位数回归

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111690

Yun Ye , Pengjun Zheng , Pengpeng Xu , Qiaoqiao Ren , Ran Yan , Xiaowei Gao

{"title":"Varying effects of risk factors on economic losses from fishing vessel accidents: A Bayesian random-parameter quantile regression with heterogeneity in means","authors":"Yun Ye , Pengjun Zheng , Pengpeng Xu , Qiaoqiao Ren , Ran Yan , Xiaowei Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111690","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111690","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the determinants of economic loss in fishing vessel accidents is crucial for maritime risk assessment and policy development. This study proposes a Bayesian Random-Parameter Quantile Regression with Heterogeneity in Means (BRPQRHM) framework, and compares it with the Bayesian fixed-parameter regression (BFPR), Bayesian fixed-parameter quantile regression (BFPQR), and Bayesian random-parameter quantile regression (BRPQR) to investigate the varying and heterogeneous effects of vessel, environment, and accident-related factors on economic loss. The proposed approach addresses key limitations of conventional models by offering three major advantages by enabling a richer characterization of covariate effects across quantiles, improving robustness to outliers in heavy-tailed and skewed data, and accounting for unobserved heterogeneity through random parameters influenced by covariates. Using a dataset of fishing vessel accidents in Ningbo waters, the results demonstrate substantial variations in covariate effects across quantiles and highlight the superiority of quantile regression in modeling the skewed and heavy-tailed distribution of economic losses. The BRPQR and BRPQRHM models significantly improve model fit at higher quantiles and reveal that the effects of variables such as human errors and crew qualifications are probabilistic rather than fixed. In particular, the BRPQRHM model at the 98% quantile captures complex interactions between crew effects and contextual factors, including vessel width, visibility, and accident type. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for the unobserved heterogeneity and provide novel insights into the risk factors associated with severe fishing vessel accidents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111690"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction with dual-time-scale considering system state and individual variability 考虑系统状态和个体可变性的双时间尺度退化建模和剩余使用寿命预测

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111666

Huifang Niu , Jianchao Zeng , Hui Shi , Xiaohong Zhang , Wenjie Wang , Jianyu Liang , Guannan Shi

{"title":"Degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction with dual-time-scale considering system state and individual variability","authors":"Huifang Niu , Jianchao Zeng , Hui Shi , Xiaohong Zhang , Wenjie Wang , Jianyu Liang , Guannan Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111666","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111666","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most recent studies on system degradation modeling and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction assume a stable system state, overlooking its influence on system degradation evolution. Additionally, individual variability among identical systems can affect the accuracy of the RUL prediction. To address these limitations, this study proposes a nonlinear Wiener process model with time-varying degradation rates that accounts for both system state and individual variability. The influence of fast-varying system states is captured using an average function, whereas individual variability is represented by a random-effect parameter. For cases where the system state changes rapidly while the degradation state evolves more slowly, a dual-time-scale Kalman filter algorithm is adopted to jointly estimate system state and random-effect parameters. The expectation–maximization algorithm is used to estimate the remaining unknown parameters of the degradation model. Furthermore, based on first hitting time definition, the approximate analytical expression for probability density function (PDF) of the RUL is derived. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of proposed method are validated through both a numerical example and a motor case study.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111666"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0