Reliability Engineering & System Safety最新文献

Modeling and analysis of cascading failures in multilayer higher-order networks 多层高阶网络级联故障建模与分析

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110497

{"title":"Modeling and analysis of cascading failures in multilayer higher-order networks","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With the increasing application of network science, understanding the behavior of higher-order networks has become particularly important. Especially, the study of multilayer higher-order networks is significant for revealing the interdependence and higher-order interactions in complex systems. This paper proposes a mathematical framework to explore multilayer higher-order networks composed of multiple fully interdependent hypergraphs. Each hypergraph consists of the same number of nodes, and nodes between layers are connected one-to-one. By analyzing the cascading failures of multilayer hypergraphs under different topologies, we found that although the network sizes are the same in the steady state, different topological structures (such as star-like, tree-like, and chain-like) significantly affect the time required to reach a stable state, with the star-like topology reaching stability the fastest. Furthermore, we explored the impact of network parameters on the robustness of networks. We found that in multilayer homogeneous hypergraphs, the robustness of the network becomes stronger with an increase in the average hyperdegree or average hyperedge cardinality; in multilayer heterogeneous hypergraphs, the robustness of the network becomes more fragile as the power exponent increases. Finally, experimental results indicate that with the rise in the number of network layers, the network becomes more fragile.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142169338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cascading failure model and resilience-based sequential recovery strategy for complex networks 复杂网络的级联故障模型和基于弹性的顺序恢复策略

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110488

{"title":"Cascading failure model and resilience-based sequential recovery strategy for complex networks","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110488","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110488","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Complex networks, which exhibit high connectivity, self-organization, small-world properties, and heterogeneity, are susceptible to the rapid spread of local failures, often resulting in cascading effects throughout the entire system. The paper introduces a cascading failure model based on biased random walks that incorporate betweenness centrality and the power-law distribution of node degrees. This model is used to investigate cascade failures triggered by extreme fluctuations in load that follow a Poisson distribution. Furthermore, we propose a resilience-based sequential recovery strategy that accounts for varying node recovery time and resource limitations, setting an upper limit on the number of nodes that can be in recovery simultaneously. The network’s robustness improves, and the variation in the power-law exponent during cascading failures and recovery decreases when the betweenness bias parameter is set to 1 instead of -1. The capacity parameter has the most significant and direct effect on improving the network’s robustness. Reducing node recovery time can improve the network’s initial invulnerability; however, its impact on final residual resilience remains limited. The power-law exponent of the initial network significantly affects residual resilience during the recovery process, with higher exponents leading to improved network performance. An appropriate increase in the number of nodes that can be in recovery simultaneously can enhance the overall recovery performance of the network. Extensive comparative simulations reveal substantial advantages of our proposed recovery strategy in enhancing network recovery.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142171835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Estimating the all-terminal signatures for networks by using deep neural network 利用深度神经网络估算网络的全终端特征

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110496

引用次数: 0

Changes in the equilibrium of the urban transport system of a large city following an urban flood 城市洪灾后大城市交通系统平衡的变化

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110473

{"title":"Changes in the equilibrium of the urban transport system of a large city following an urban flood","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110473","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110473","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban floods are among the most frequent and destructive natural disasters. They generate enormous economic and non-economic losses, including damage to buildings and transportation infrastructure, which are critical systems supporting community well-being. The purpose of this paper was to assess the impact an urban flood would have on the urban road transport system in Łódź and to determine changes in potential accessibility that would accompany a flood. This paper introduces a novel approach in terms of combining the modelling of direct impact ranges of urban flooding in the area of Łódź and a macroscopic multi-motivational traffic model for the city (using PTV Visum software). This made it possible to identify mechanisms of changes made in as many intra-system relationships as possible, as well as between the system and its surroundings. The results showed that changes in the spatial distribution of traffic volume in the city are closely dependent on the water level. The sections of the network most affected by the load changes are those that form the framework for the entire system of Łódź, indicating a lack of resilience of the car transport subsystem in the critical segment for the functioning quality of the entire subsystem. Additionally, the study was conducted for public transport, and it was indicated that changes in its utilization are minimal. It was also found that the greatest impact on transport accessibility from an urban flood is for ultra-short trips. This is primarily due to the base effect (the initial quality of the infrastructure and its potential) – the internal potential of the transport area deteriorates drastically during a flood, severely affecting accessibility.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142169339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A reliability-based design optimization strategy using quantile surrogates by improved PC-kriging 基于可靠性的设计优化策略，通过改进的 PC-kriging 使用量子代用指标

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110491

{"title":"A reliability-based design optimization strategy using quantile surrogates by improved PC-kriging","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In recent years, the surrogate-assisted reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) methods have been continuously developed, and numerous advanced optimization strategies have boosted efficiency and accuracy. However, ensuring sufficient accuracy and feasibility at the optimal is still a challenge. In order to achieve a well-balanced between efficiency, accuracy, and optimal feasibility, in this work, a RBDO strategy using quantile surrogates by improved PC-Kriging model is proposed. The novelty of the proposed method lies in the following main aspects: Firstly, an improved learning function has been developed to significantly enhance the convergence efficiency during the construction of the PC-Kriging model. Secondly, in the RBDO analysis process, a novel \"MP+EI\" combination point addition strategy is adopted to enhance the approximation of the surrogate model to the optimum of the objective function. It can further improve optimization efficiency and accuracy. On the basis of the rough probability constrained surrogate model established by the global enrichment strategy, a local refinement strategy is introduced to guarantee the accuracy of the quantile evaluation of the probability constrained surrogate model for each iteration solution during the optimization process. Finally, the proposed method is validated by three typical RBDO test examples and one engineering application example.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142162576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Operational reliability assessment of complex mechanical systems with multiple failure modes: An adaptive decomposition-synchronous-coordination approach 具有多种故障模式的复杂机械系统的运行可靠性评估：自适应分解-同步协调方法

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110494

{"title":"Operational reliability assessment of complex mechanical systems with multiple failure modes: An adaptive decomposition-synchronous-coordination approach","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110494","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110494","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To effectively perform Complex Mechanical Systems Operational Reliability Assessment (CSORA) with multiple failures, the Adaptive Decomposition-Synchronous-Coordination Approach (ADSCA) is proposed by integrating Decomposition-Synchronous-Coordination strategy, adaptive modeling technology, surrogate model and multi-objective reliability assessment theory. In which, the main problem is decomposed into related sub-problems using a Decomposition-Synchronization-Coordination strategy, with sub-models coordinated to achieve synchronous mapping between multiple variables, thereby enhancing efficiency in large multi-subsystem problems. The adaptive modeling technique is adopted to construct a series of interrelated sub models based on the surrogate model as the basis function, improving performance. A multi-objective reliability assessment theory is adopted to achieve CSORA under multiple fault modes, where multiple weak links are integrated to comprehensively evaluate the reliability of complex systems. The significance of the ADSCA lies in its ability to manage complexity, enhance scalability, and improve the accuracy and efficiency of reliability assessments in complex mechanical systems. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, two illustrative examples are used. This includes approximation and probability analysis of nonlinear functions that exhibit multiple responses, as well as reliability analysis of temperature in civil aircraft braking system. The study can provide theoretical reference for the reliability evaluation of multi-failure operation in complex mechanical systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142169337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Performance-based reliability assessment of transmission lines under tornado actions 龙卷风行动下基于性能的输电线路可靠性评估

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110475

{"title":"Performance-based reliability assessment of transmission lines under tornado actions","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110475","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Transmission lines (TL) are a very important part of our infrastructure. Their design is still mainly based on a single extreme value wind speed, evaluated from synoptic or mixed wind speed records, whereas non-synoptic (e.g. tornado and downbursts) winds are responsible for up to 80% of weather-related TL collapses. In this manuscript a methodology is proposed to evaluate the reliability of complete TL segments, considering the large uncertainties in wind speeds, tornado diameter and relative trajectory w.r.t. TL supports (tower offset). The Performance-Based Wind Engineering framework is employed to account for the uncertainties in wind speeds, tornado diameter and tower offset. A compact non-linear dynamic scheme is employed to handle the material and geometric non-linearities of a tower-cable TL segment, capturing the influence of cables in the dynamic response of the TL. Mean wind profiles and turbulent velocity field models are employed for simulating tornado loading in time domain. Fragility analysis is carried out for three performance levels (Serviceability, Damage control and Collapse). Results show that TL collapse is conditional on tower-hit events. The probability of a tower hit event is determined from geometrical relationships between tower span, tornado radius and tornado trajectory. The probability of a tower hit event increases significantly with tornado radius. Yet, uncertainty in tornado radius is found to be less relevant to TL vulnerability than uncertainty in wind speeds and tower offset.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142150312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Crossover point analysis with Jensen-Shannon divergence lower bound for bi-objective reliability optimization of k-out-of-n system k-out-of-n 系统双目标可靠性优化的交叉点分析与詹森-香农发散下界

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110480

引用次数: 0

Comparative analysis of offshore wind turbine blade maintenance: RL-based and classical strategies for sustainable approach 海上风力涡轮机叶片维护的比较分析：基于 RL 和传统策略的可持续方法

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110477

引用次数: 0

Remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries based on autoregression with exogenous variables model 基于外生变量自回归模型的锂离子电池剩余使用寿命预测

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110485

{"title":"Remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries based on autoregression with exogenous variables model","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110485","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110485","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The gradual decrease capacity serves as a pivotal health indicator, reflecting the condition of lithium-ion batteries. Accurate forecasting of capacity can ascertain the remaining lifespan of these batteries at any given cycle, which is crucial for managing batteries in electric vehicles. This paper proposes an Autoregression with Exogenous Variables (AREV) model, which continually updates itself through a sliding window, offering predictions of battery state of health and remaining useful life, which extends battery prognostics at a fixed operating condition to different operating conditions. In addition, unlike most models that require multiple battery data of the same type for training, the proposed model only requires the use of fragmented data of the target battery with length around 30-50 cycles for capacity prediction and determines battery life based on battery failure thresholds. The above two points enable this model to be updated online without the need for any offline training. Finally, four different types of battery dataset , with different chemical substances and different charge and discharge conditions (especially dataset that follows random walk discharging profile to stimulate the real power consumption process) , are applied to verify the effectiveness and robustness of proposed RUL prediction approach. It shows that the proposed model can accurately predicting future capacity values. Timely warning signals can be issued before the end of life of battery, thereby ensuring the safe driving of electric vehicles and timely battery replacement.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142150308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0