Shichao Feng , Lei Wang , Haibo Dong , Yanqing Li , Zhengquan Wan , C. Guedes Soares
{"title":"An active-learning method based on hierarchical Kriging model for multi-fidelity reliability analysis","authors":"Shichao Feng , Lei Wang , Haibo Dong , Yanqing Li , Zhengquan Wan , C. Guedes Soares","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111759","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111759","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An active-learning method based on hierarchical Kriging model (AHK-MCS) for multi-fidelity reliability analysis is proposed. It is a two-stage method that includes: building the low-fidelity (LF) model using LF samples firstly, and constructing the high-fidelity (HF) model based on the LF model using HF samples secondly. Additionally, an experimental design method based on the LF model is proposed. The two-stage framework facilitates the high-precision LF model and initial HF samples selection, consequently enhancing the efficiency of the HF active-learning process. The AHK-MCS method is compared with two one-stage methods through eight numerical examples. The results show that the proposed method is capable of providing an accurate estimation of failure probability with fewer HF samples. Moreover, the proposed experimental design method is evaluated and demonstrated to result in a reduction of HF samples. The influence of the LF model is assessed, indicating that the utilisation of a precise LF model can diminish the number of HF samples required for the construction of the HF model. The performance of the AHK-MCS method under different cost ratios is also investigated.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111759"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reliability analysis and maintenance strategy for phased-mission balanced systems with flexible structure","authors":"Lipo Mo, Shuyun Li, Siqi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111773","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111773","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Balanced systems are widely applied in aeronautics, robotics and other engineering fields. In many practical cases, many balanced systems are required to complete a mission in multiple phases. Such systems usually have different system structures in each mission phase, but existing models are not sufficient to assess the system reliability, so the reliability model for phased-mission balanced systems is investigated in this paper. The system consists of multiple multi-state components, but different components are required to operate to complete different tasks in different phases. The components degradation process is described by the same continuous-time Markov process. All components need to work in similar states, which means that the difference between the maximum and minimum component states should not be greater than a critical value. In this paper, different Markov processes are constructed for each phase of the system. Markov process imbedding technique is applied to assess the system reliability at each phase. A maintenance strategy is designed, and the system state is detected between phases to determine whether maintenance should be carried out. Finally, an analytical example based on the production line balancing problem of a flexible manufacturing system (FMS) is presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111773"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peiming Shi , Tiejun Jia , Xuefang Xu , Dongying Han
{"title":"A generative dual-input model based on architectural computational optimization and multi-attention mechanism for remaining useful life prediction","authors":"Peiming Shi , Tiejun Jia , Xuefang Xu , Dongying Han","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111777","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111777","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction is one of the key technologies to ensure the smooth operation of aircraft engines. Previous studies have focused on improving prediction accuracy but overlooked issues related to model efficiency with long sequences and the bottleneck in information utilization. This paper proposes a generative dual-input model based on architectural computation optimization and a multi-attention mechanism. The model aims to break the inherent architectural limitations that reduce the model’s computational load and provides an update to the traditional Transformer at the architectural level. Specifically, a probabilistic sparse self-attention mechanism and an additive attention mechanism are updated as the basic internal components of the model. This design allows the model to achieve outstanding long-sequence processing efficiency and strong heterogeneous information fusion capabilities. Additionally, the concept of hierarchical decomposition is implemented in the data embedding process. This pattern cleverly connects the additive attention block while providing it with heterogeneous attention inputs to discover the intrinsic characteristics within the sequence. Finally, the complete degradation subsequences and short-term degradation slices are synchronously input into the model. This mechanism enables dependency discovery at the subsequence level. Satisfactory results were achieved on the C-MAPSS dataset, demonstrating the superiority of the model. Moreover, it outperforms many existing models in terms of balancing prediction accuracy and model scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111777"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Multi-scenario robust stochastic programming based distributed energy resources allocation in distribution networks: Balancing economic efficiency and resilience","authors":"Xin Liu, Meng Tian, Zhengcheng Dong, Linhai Guo, Yufeng Zhou, Yu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111749","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111749","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the intensification of global climate change, the configuration of distributed energy resources (DERs) faces growing challenges from extreme weather events. To enhance system resilience while maintaining economic efficiency in normal operations, a multi-scenario robust stochastic programming (MS-RSP) method is proposed for optimal DERs configuration, strategically combining high-cost fixed and low-cost emergency power supplies (EPS). The proposed approach integrates the advantages of stochastic programming (SP) and robust optimization (RO), addressing uncertainties in both normal and extreme disaster scenarios through innovative model decomposition. To overcome potential computational complexity in DERs configuration optimization, an improved alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is developed to decompose the hybrid model into SP and MS-RO subproblems for parallel solving, significantly reducing computational burden while improving solution efficiency. For the MS-RO component of the DERs configuration problem, a nested column-and-constraint generation (NC&CG) and progressive hedging (PH) algorithm is implemented, enabling efficient large-scale scenario processing and enhanced computational performance. Simulation results on IEEE 33 and 123 bus distribution networks demonstrate that the proposed model successfully achieves the optimal balance between resilience and economic efficiency, showing remarkable adaptability across various operating conditions. The methodology proves particularly effective in addressing the dual challenges of normal operational economics and extreme event resilience through differentiated resource allocation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111749"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Morena Vitale, Huxiao Shi, David J. Castro Rodriguez, Antonello A. Barresi, Micaela Demichela
{"title":"Material degradation: Findings from historical accident analysis in process industries","authors":"Morena Vitale, Huxiao Shi, David J. Castro Rodriguez, Antonello A. Barresi, Micaela Demichela","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111769","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111769","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Material degradation represents a source of risk in the process industry, being responsible for 30% of loss of containment events. This investigation focuses on the analysis of historical events related to material degradation to gain awareness and enhance preparedness in the process industry. A database containing 3,772 records was built. Data collection was performed using industrial-accident open access databases, classifying the information according to macro-sector, type of equipment, substance involved, scenario, age of the plant, actions taken after the event and type of losses. Corrosion emerged as the main failure mechanism, followed by vibration and fatigue. This phenomenon occurs predominantly in plants with more than 25 years of operation, where prolonged exposure to chemical and environmental agents accelerates the degradation of materials. In contrast, more recent plants are more prone to failures caused by vibration. Corrosion events were frequently associated with environmental contamination episodes, with Event Tree Analysis showing it as the most likely scenario, representing approximately 50% conditional probability in documented corrosion incidents. To complete the analysis, two representative case studies were chosen for the application of the quantitative risk assessment. Conditional relationships among the variables of the database were found using Bayesian networks after the first frequentist analysis. This method allowed the investigation of uncertain data revealing a notable rise in the frequency of LOC and toxic gas dispersion. The analysis of past events highlighted the critical failure factors, which can be considered for the adoption of more effective preventive measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111769"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sara Abdellaoui, Emil Dumitrescu, Cédric Escudero, Eric Zamai
{"title":"Monitoring cyberthreats in railway systems: A hybrid framework for detecting stealthy data tampering attacks","authors":"Sara Abdellaoui, Emil Dumitrescu, Cédric Escudero, Eric Zamai","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111747","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111747","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Railway cybersecurity has become a critical concern as the integration of advanced monitoring systems increases reliance on technology. Cyberattacks targeting railway systems can disrupt operations, compromise data integrity, and mislead maintenance decisions, jeopardizing safety and efficiency. Despite these risks, existing detection methods often struggle to address stealthy data tampering attacks designed to either mask failures or trigger unnecessary maintenance. To remedy this gap, this article proposes a novel framework combining Turnout Lifecycle Analysis (TLA) and Expected Behavior Analysis (EBA), complemented by a weighted, modified Dempster–Shafer theory to integrate threat estimations from both approaches. The proposed framework supports the detection of stealthy cyberattacks and the diagnosis of turnout faults, while enabling resilient decision-making under uncertainty. The framework is validated on simulated cyberattack scenarios, successfully identifying six out of seven attacks while reducing false positives. The results highlight the potential of this framework to give railway maintenance operators more accurate insights, help improve decision-making, and help enhance the safety and resilience of railway operations against cyberthreats.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111747"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yuhan Ma , Fanping Wei , Qingan Qiu , Rui Peng , Li Yang
{"title":"Auto-learning process risk optimization considering uncertain degradation pathways: A bayesian-learning-informed termination approach","authors":"Yuhan Ma , Fanping Wei , Qingan Qiu , Rui Peng , Li Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111766","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111766","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Safety-critical task systems operating under uncertain degradation pathways demand precise decision paradigm to balance operational continuity against catastrophic failure risks. This study addresses a risk control problem arising in mission-critical systems under degradation evolution uncertainties. To tackle potential failure risks stemming from process uncertainties, we develop a tractable risk control model that incorporates parameter learning into the adaptive termination decision process, constituting an auto-learning control-limit policy. The integrated optimization problem is representable as a finite-horizon MDP framework, which strives to mitigate the aggregate losses originating from (a) task termination and (b) operational anomalies. Theoretical analysis confirms the presence of termination thresholds along with its monotonic characteristic relative to inspection counts and degradation severities, revealing an age-state-dependent threshold structure that adapts to non-steady conditions. We further account for the implication of core degradation/cost parameters on risk alleviation, which facilitates efficient decision-making. Comparative evaluations demonstrate that the optimal policy outperforms alternative strategies over risk loss control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111766"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A new spatiotemporal resilience optimization strategy for UAV swarm in data-physical-enabled low-altitude IoT networks","authors":"Hongyan Dui , Huanqi Zhang , Xinghui Dong , Chu Tang , Zhiwei Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111762","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111762","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the continuous progress of Internet of Things (IoT) technology, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been developed unprecedentedly. The environment in which UAV missions are carried out is diverse and complex, and it is inevitable that they will be interfered with to different degrees in the process of performing missions. There is a lack of analysis of the spatial in which UAV clusters operate in harsh mission environments, and the UAV signal transmission loss under the control of ground base station is large, which is difficult to ensure the data quality. Meanwhile, when multiple UAVs fail at the same time, current recovery strategies are lacking in consideration. Based on these, first, we constructed a multi-layer architecture for UAV swarm based on low-altitude IoT technology and analyzed the protocol conversion under the control of ground and air base stations. Then, we analyze the performance of the UAV swarm data layer and physical layer. Second, considering the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of UAV swarm, the concept of spatiotemporal resilience is proposed. Furthermore, the data layer resilience optimization strategy with air-ground base station coordination and the delayed recovery strategy in the physical layer are proposed to optimize the spatiotemporal resilience of the UAV swarm. Finally, seven UAVs are simulated to perform the mission to validate the spatiotemporal resilience optimization strategy proposed in this paper. The results show that compared with the traditional recovery strategy, the proposed strategy in this paper improves the spatiotemporal resilience of the UAV swarm by 34.48 % and 20.08 %, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111762"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Quantification of community resilience to natural hazards by tracking cell-phone GPS location data","authors":"Georgios Chatzikyriakidis , Nicos Makris , Tue Vu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111738","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111738","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Following our ongoing studies on the quantification of urban resilience to natural hazards this paper focuses on quantifying the resilience of local communities which according to reports and satellite radiance data (nighttime light emission) have experienced heavy damage in the wider urban center. Our study focuses on specific heavily damaged communities from the Dallas metroplex and the greater Houston urban area from the February 2021 winter storm. We only distilled cell-phone IDs that their homes are in the identified communities of interest and we trace the path of these IDs on the greater urban center prior, during and after the North American Winter Storm struck. Our study adopts the definition of “engineering” resilience which is encoded in the mean square displacement (MSD) of the citizens of a given community. All computed MSDs of the citizens from these heavily damaged communities show invariably a noticeable suppression during the duration of the storm; yet, immediately after the expiration of the cold storm; all community MSDs from the cities of Dallas and Houston indicate, that in terms of an ensemble average (MSD), each of the communities examined reverted back to the pre-storm response almost immediately; suggesting an inherent “engineering” resilience to the winter storm. Accordingly, this paper confirms our previous findings on the wider urban scale; that even at the community scale the urban fabric of large American cities of medium-to-high population density exhibits a great degree of “engineering” resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111738"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Multi-fidelity Subset Simulation for rare event simulation","authors":"Leila Naderi, Gaofeng Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111739","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111739","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Subset Simulation (SS) is an efficient method for simulating rare events and estimating small failure probabilities. The original SS and its variants are developed for systems with single fidelity model. For many systems, besides high-fidelity system models, lower-fidelity models (e.g., reduced order models, surrogate models, machine learning models) can be developed that are less expensive albeit with lower accuracy. This paper proposes a novel multi-fidelity Subset Simulation (MFSS) approach that leverages lower-fidelity models for more efficient rare event simulation. MFSS extends the single fidelity SS to the more general multi-fidelity SS. MFSS relies on the formulation of an augmented failure probability problem by artificially treating the model fidelity as a random variable and augmenting it with other random variables/inputs. Then SS is used to solve the augmented problem, and Bayes’ theorem is used to estimate the failure probability under the high-fidelity model. At each level in MFSS, a constrained optimization problem is formulated to optimally allocate the computational efforts for each model fidelity to minimize the overall cost needed to generate the required number of samples from the conditional failure distribution. The characteristics and computational savings of MFSS are investigated both analytically and within the context of two benchmark problems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111739"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}