Reliability Engineering & System Safety最新文献_第7页

An efficient method for solving system failure probability functions based on subset simulation and probability reanalysis techniques 基于子集仿真和概率再分析技术的系统失效概率函数求解方法

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111248

Hao Wang , Luyi Li , Junchao Liu , Xiukai Yuan

{"title":"An efficient method for solving system failure probability functions based on subset simulation and probability reanalysis techniques","authors":"Hao Wang , Luyi Li , Junchao Liu , Xiukai Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111248","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estimating the system failure probability function (FPF) is critical in reliability-based system design and optimization. However, multiple failure modes in a system challenge the estimation process. The probability reanalysis (PRA) method can estimate failure probabilities under various distribution parameters using only a single set of input-output samples. However, combining it with efficient numerical simulation methods can improve its computational efficiency. This paper combines the importance sampling subset simulation (SS-IS) method with the PRA method to propose the SS-IS-PRA method for estimating the system FPF. The proposed method transforms the system FPF into a product of a series of conditional FPFs. Then, a single set of input-output samples is used to solve conditional FPFs layer by layer based on the PRA approach. Furthermore, this paper introduces an IS center selection strategy based on mixed sampling and K-means clustering to enhance the applicability of the SS-IS-PRA method in multi-failure mode problems without additional computational cost. Finally, an adaptive Kriging surrogate model is embedded within the SS-IS-PRA method to enhance the computational efficiency of SS-IS-PRA and better suit real engineering structure analysis. Hence, the SS-IS-PRA-AK method is obtained. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method are validated through four examples.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 111248"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144106934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Resilience-based estimation of the disaster waste disposal time considering interdependencies between waste disposal and road network systems under seismic and tsunami hazards in coastal communities 考虑沿海社区地震和海啸灾害下废物处理与道路网络系统之间相互依赖关系的灾害废物处理时间的基于复原力的估计

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111242

Koki Aoki , Mitsuyoshi Akiyama , Abdul Kadir Alhamid , Dan M. Frangopol , Shunichi Koshimura

{"title":"Resilience-based estimation of the disaster waste disposal time considering interdependencies between waste disposal and road network systems under seismic and tsunami hazards in coastal communities","authors":"Koki Aoki , Mitsuyoshi Akiyama , Abdul Kadir Alhamid , Dan M. Frangopol , Shunichi Koshimura","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111242","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111242","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tsunamigenic earthquakes have triggered damage to structures and infrastructure systems due to both ground motion and subsequent tsunamis, resulting in a huge amount of disaster waste. Since the disaster waste must be processed and transported through both the waste disposal system (WDS) and the road network system (RNS), the functionality loss of the two systems subjected to spatially correlated ground motion and tsunamis hinders the disaster waste removal. Therefore, disaster waste management must be developed by considering the effects of the cascading hazards on not only the capacity of processing facilities, but also the time required to transport disaster waste to the processing facilities (i.e., the interdependency between WDS and RNS). This paper presents a framework for estimating the disaster waste disposal time considering the interdependency between WDS and RNS under seismic and tsunami hazards. As a measure of a coastal community resilience after the occurrence of a strong earthquake, the probability of waste disposal completion at a time elapsed from the earthquake occurrence is estimated considering the uncertainties associated with predicting the time-dependent functionalities of the two systems. As an illustrative example, the proposed framework is applied to a coastal community in Mie Prefecture, Japan, to investigate the effects of the interdependency between the two systems on the disaster waste disposal time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 111242"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144098846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the robustness of physical networks under attack uncertainty

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111231

Zongsheng Huang, Zixuan Wang

{"title":"Assessing the robustness of physical networks under attack uncertainty","authors":"Zongsheng Huang, Zixuan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111231","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111231","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Network robustness is fundamental to understanding and mitigating the vulnerabilities of complex physical infrastructure networks. Traditional studies often evaluate robustness by examining network performance under various attack strategies, typically assuming that attacks are always successfully implemented. However, physical infrastructure attacks are inherently uncertain, and their success is not guaranteed due to defensive mechanisms, resource limitations, or strategic failures. To address this gap, we propose a novel network attack uncertainty model that explicitly accounts for attack failures, providing a more realistic framework for robustness evaluation. Unlike existing studies that assume deterministic attack implementation, our model captures the uncertainty nature of physical infrastructure disruptions targeting nodes or edges. Using this model, we conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic networks—including Barabási–Albert (BA), Watts–Strogatz (WS), and Erdős–Rényi (ER) models and real-world international trade networks. Our findings challenge the conventional wisdom that targeted attacks on central nodes are the most effective. Surprisingly, when accounting for attack uncertainty, peripheral attacks inflict the greatest damage on network robustness, followed by random attacks, while central attacks have the least impact. This unexpected result underscores the vulnerability of peripheral structures, which are often overlooked in traditional robustness assessments. These insights offer new perspectives on network defense strategies, highlighting the need to protect not only central nodes but also peripheral components that may serve as critical points of failure under uncertain attack conditions. Our work provides a more accurate robustness assessment framework for physical networks and contributes to the development of more resilient network defense strategies against unpredictable threats.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 111231"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143943674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A DOOBN based approach for dynamic failure assessment of CO2 flooding injection string system 基于DOOBN的CO2驱注管柱系统动态失效评估方法

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111253

Xinhong Li , Kai Yu , Sihan Li , Peihua Liu , Guoming Chen

引用次数: 0

Galloping-induced global reliability assessment for ice-covered three-phase bundled conductors considering both mechanical and electrical functional failure modes 考虑机械和电气功能失效模式的冰雪覆盖三相捆扎导体飞奔诱发的整体可靠性评估

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111240

Tao Wang , Zeyu Wang , Dagang Lu , Yiqiu Tan , Zhengliang Li

{"title":"Galloping-induced global reliability assessment for ice-covered three-phase bundled conductors considering both mechanical and electrical functional failure modes","authors":"Tao Wang , Zeyu Wang , Dagang Lu , Yiqiu Tan , Zhengliang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111240","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111240","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traditional galloping analysis for ice-covered conductors mainly focuses on the single failure mode, such as mechanical or electrical functional failure mode. In practice, galloping-induced all failure modes may occur in ice-covered conductors and only considering the single failure mode may inaccurately estimate the damage of conductor galloping. In this regard, this paper proposes the assessment framework of galloping-induced global reliability for ice-covered three-phase bundled conductors (ITBCs) considering both mechanical and electrical functional failure modes. Firstly, galloping-induced mechanical and electrical functional failure modes for ITBCs are analyzed, and the corresponding equivalent performance function is established. Sequently, galloping tension and interphase distance are calculated by the nonlinear finite element model. Then, the assessment framework of galloping-induced global reliability for ITBCs considering both mechanical and electrical functional failure modes is proposed based on the probability density evolution method (PDEM). Finally, the assessment for an example indicates that galloping-induced multiple failure modes have the likelihood of occurrence simultaneously in ITBCs. Moreover, with the increase of initial horizontal tension, galloping-induced global failure probability first decreases and then increases. Raising average wind speed significantly increases the global failure probabilities for ITBCs. The global failure probabilities of ITBCs display noteworthy disparities under different initial wind attack angles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 111240"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144084584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reliability analysis of a capacitated series-parallel multi-state system subject to performance sharing mechanism and transmission loss 考虑性能共享机制和传输损耗的容能串并联多状态系统可靠性分析

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111249

Tianyuan Zhang , Yuchang Mo , Li Yang

{"title":"Reliability analysis of a capacitated series-parallel multi-state system subject to performance sharing mechanism and transmission loss","authors":"Tianyuan Zhang , Yuchang Mo , Li Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111249","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111249","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a reliability model of capacitated series-parallel multi-state systems (MSSs) subject to performance sharing and transmission loss. The system consists of <em>m</em> subsystems interconnected through a common bus, where each subsystem contains <em>k</em> parallel-configured components. When a subsystem fails to independently satisfy its demand, the total performance surplus from other subsystems is transmitted to the deficient subsystem through the common bus. The system is deemed unreliable as long as the weighted sum of performance deficiency of subsystems exceeds a pre-designed threshold after performance sharing. The existing methods are computationally intensive due to iterative calculations or system state explosion. A hybrid method combining the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) and the multi-valued decision diagram (MDD) is proposed to analyze the system reliability. Specially, the MDD method implements some truncation and merging operations to effectively eliminate redundant branches and compute the reliability of the entire system accurately from the constructed compact MDD model. Case studies of a heating system and a power grid system are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and the practical application of the system model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"263 ","pages":"Article 111249"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144135161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Joint optimization of maintenance strategy and buffer capacity for a multi-state buffered serial system considering self-repair actions 考虑自修复行为的多状态缓冲串联系统维护策略与缓冲容量联合优化

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111252

Yinghao Meng , Faqun Qi , Bowen Liu , Zhen Yin , Shuwen Ye , Haosen Zhang

{"title":"Joint optimization of maintenance strategy and buffer capacity for a multi-state buffered serial system considering self-repair actions","authors":"Yinghao Meng , Faqun Qi , Bowen Liu , Zhen Yin , Shuwen Ye , Haosen Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates a multi-state buffered serial system with machines experiencing multiple states. Unlike previous studies that primarily focus on fixed buffer capacities or ignore the interaction between internal degradation and multi-level external shocks, this work introduces a comprehensive framework that integrates these aspects. The competitive failure process between internal degradation and external shocks is considered. External shocks are classified into degradation, large, and failure shocks based on their attributes, sizes, and specific impact on internal degradation. The multi-layer self-repair mechanism is proposed to quantify the uncertainty of the self-repair actions, and correlated with machine reliability and time required for maintenance, the time required for imperfect maintenance is analyzed. By dividing a given total time period into a series of mutually independent sub time periods based on a unique segmentation algorithm, the Minimum Expected Cost Rate for Multiple Stacked Maintenance (MECRMSM) framework is presented. All possible situations of the two machines and buffer are discussed within each sub-time period, and the expected cost rate of the system within the total time period is calculated. The solution for minimizing system costs while maintaining reliability is provided by jointly optimizing the maintenance threshold and buffer capacity. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed framework and algorithm is demonstrated through three numerical cases, which highlight its ability to dynamically balance maintenance strategies and buffer capacity under varying operational conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 111252"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144084583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A probabilistic cost-benefit analysis approach for cyberattack path evaluation 网络攻击路径评估的概率成本效益分析方法

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111255

Jinghan Zhang , Enrico Zio , Chiye Ma , Kang Liu , Wei Wang

{"title":"A probabilistic cost-benefit analysis approach for cyberattack path evaluation","authors":"Jinghan Zhang , Enrico Zio , Chiye Ma , Kang Liu , Wei Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111255","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111255","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Analyzing attacker behavior and exploring attack paths are crucial to design effective cybersecurity protection mechanisms. In this work, we propose a Monte Carlo (MC)-based probabilistic cost-benefit analysis approach to assess cyber vulnerabilities and identify attack paths most likely to be exploited in an industrial control setting. First, we draw an attack graph to represent the potential attack paths that attackers could exploit to compromise the vulnerabilities of a target Industrial Control System (ICS). A cost-benefit analysis is, then, integrated into a graph path algorithm to explore attacker’s decisions for exploiting vulnerabilities, whilst accounting for the dynamic characteristics of the system configuration. A probabilistic risk metric is introduced to measure the uncertainty that derives from the intrinsic technical exploitability of vulnerabilities and attackers’ propensities. For demonstration, we apply the proposed approach to a simplified corporate network in an ICS environment, which is vulnerable to multi-step cyberattacks. We identify the shortest attack paths with the highest probabilities and assess the risk associated to each vulnerable element.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"263 ","pages":"Article 111255"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144135154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Vulnerability assessment in inland waterway transportation network for hazardous materials amid demand: A case of the pearl river delta 需求下内河危险品运输网络脆弱性评价：以珠江三角洲为例

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111204

Huiling Zhong, Mingtian Lei, Yimiao Gu

{"title":"Vulnerability assessment in inland waterway transportation network for hazardous materials amid demand: A case of the pearl river delta","authors":"Huiling Zhong, Mingtian Lei, Yimiao Gu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111204","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111204","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) not only carries high risks but is also vulnerable to network disruptions. While most existing studies focus on risk, the vulnerability of hazmat transportation networks has received limited attention. This study proposes a novel demand-based vulnerability assessment framework for the inland waterway network for hazmat transportation (IWNHT), where transportation demand is estimated using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from hazmat ships. The framework not only considers navigational constraints and external influences to capture realistic IWNHTs operating scenarios, but also quantifies the impact of disruptions on transportation demand and traffic conditions to enhance risk and vulnerability assessment accuracy. A risk-based vulnerability indicator is then designed. The proposed method is applied to the IWNHT of the Pearl River Delta (PRD), showing its effectiveness in identifying critical links. Moreover, a comparative analysis of the link vulnerability and risk is presented, highlighting the differences and connections between the two. The findings provide valuable insights for decision-making in IWNHTs, enhancing network reliability and transportation safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 111204"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Dynamic UAV trajectory optimisation for parcel delivery with integrated third-party risk mitigation” [Reliability Engineering & System Safety (2025) 111178] “集成第三方风险缓解的包裹投递动态无人机轨迹优化”[可靠性工程与系统安全（2025）111178]的勘误表

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111233

Enrique Aldao , Fernando Veiga-López , Caroline P.C. Chanel , Yoko Watanabe , Higinio González-Jorge

引用次数: 0