Reliability Engineering & System Safety最新文献

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Resilience assessment of power distribution systems based on structure varied dynamic Bayesian network under rainstorm disasters 基于结构变化动态贝叶斯网络的暴雨灾害下配电系统恢复力评估
IF 11 1区 工程技术
Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111660
Xiangyu Wu , Yuxin Zhao , Di Wang , Jingsi Huang , Kang Zheng
{"title":"Resilience assessment of power distribution systems based on structure varied dynamic Bayesian network under rainstorm disasters","authors":"Xiangyu Wu ,&nbsp;Yuxin Zhao ,&nbsp;Di Wang ,&nbsp;Jingsi Huang ,&nbsp;Kang Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111660","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111660","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resilience assessment is crucial in assessing the power supply capacity and guiding the planning and operation of the distribution systems. In recent years, frequent rainstorm-induced urban waterlogging poses a severe threat to power distribution systems, resulting in widespread and prolonged outages. This paper proposes a model-based resilience assessment framework to reveal the mechanistic impacts of such catastrophes on the structural disintegration of system topologies and their cascade effects on operational strategies. In the framework, the rainstorm and two-dimensional hydrodynamics model under spatiotemporal evolution are formulated combining the digital elevation model, and the rainstorm and waterlogging impact on critical infrastructures (CIs) is assessed as prior failure possibility. A structure varied dynamic Bayesian network is proposed combining with the prior failure possibility of CIs to achieve a posterior failure possibility considering the evolution of the system topology. The vulnerable nodes are identified and the system resilience is evaluated according to the redistribution of the expected optimal power flow under the cascade spread of disasters. Finally, the proposed framework is applied to the IEEE 33-node system. It is prove that the system resilience is overestimated by 15.96%, only considering the prior failure probability of the CIs. By relocating the batteries to the three most vulnerable nodes that identified based on the SVDBN approach, the system losses can be reduced by 5.6%.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111660"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Operational risk assessment of electric power grids exposed to straight-line winds 直线风作用下电网运行风险评估
IF 11 1区 工程技术
Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111709
Salvatore F. Greco , Saransh Dikshit , Andrej Stankovski , Blazhe Gjorgiev , Alice Alipour , Giovanni Sansavini
{"title":"Operational risk assessment of electric power grids exposed to straight-line winds","authors":"Salvatore F. Greco ,&nbsp;Saransh Dikshit ,&nbsp;Andrej Stankovski ,&nbsp;Blazhe Gjorgiev ,&nbsp;Alice Alipour ,&nbsp;Giovanni Sansavini","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111709","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111709","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Weather-related events are the most dominant cause of power grid failures. In addition, climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and thus increase the risk to the aging power grids worldwide. The current state-of-the-art lacks approaches that perform an integrated grid assessment that spans from a component-level to a full-scale system security analysis. In this work, we propose a framework to assess the probability of transmission line outages due to straight-line winds in a selected region and to quantify their impact on power system security. The framework provides an end-to-end approach that comprises of i) an assessment of the grid exposure to regional wind profiles, ii) power line segment-level fragility analyses representing physical vulnerabilities, iii) power line outage probability estimation, and iv) n-k system security analyses. Overall, the approach allows us to quantify the country-level impact of straight-line winds on the power grid. We exemplify the approach on the power grid of Switzerland, where windstorms are one of the main factors for line outages. The results show a non-negligible difference in the risk of cascading failures when considering the wind effects compared to when we do not.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111709"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multidisciplinary reliability-based design optimization of floating offshore wind turbine support structure and tuned mass-damper-inerter 基于多学科可靠性的海上浮式风力机支撑结构及调谐质量阻尼器设计优化
IF 11 1区 工程技术
Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111715
Tong Chang , Yongbo Peng
{"title":"Multidisciplinary reliability-based design optimization of floating offshore wind turbine support structure and tuned mass-damper-inerter","authors":"Tong Chang ,&nbsp;Yongbo Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111715","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111715","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using vibration control technology such as tuned mass-damper-inerter (TMDI) is an effective method in achieving the safety and cost-effectiveness of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) in deep-sea environment. However, existing research needs refinement for the integrated design of FOWT support structure and TMDI. To this end, a multidisciplinary reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) of the FOWT-TMDI system, i.e., simultaneous design optimization of FOWT support structure and TMDI, subjected to stochastic wind and wave loads is carried out in this study. To accelerate optimization, surrogate models based on deep neural networks and order-prediction-oriented schemes are used. For illustrative purposes, the site-specific design optimization of the FOWT-TMDI system under the harsh environment in the South China Sea is considered. Subsequently, embedded improvements are made to the NSGA-II algorithm to address the multidisciplinary RBDO problem. Numerical results reveal the advantages of the simultaneous design optimization of the FOWT support structure and TMDI through multidisciplinary RBDO, e.g., the cost of the support structures decreased by about 10 % while maintaining the relatively small tower top displacements. Moreover, through the multidisciplinary RBDO, the efficiency of TMDI is higher than that through the step-by-step design optimization, and the cost of the support structure is lower, thus achieving a win-win situation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111715"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Novel convex model-based approach for data-driven fault diagnosis considering uncertainty 基于凸模型的不确定性数据驱动故障诊断新方法
IF 11 1区 工程技术
Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111714
Xin Qiang , Xinxing Chen , Chong Wang
{"title":"Novel convex model-based approach for data-driven fault diagnosis considering uncertainty","authors":"Xin Qiang ,&nbsp;Xinxing Chen ,&nbsp;Chong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111714","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111714","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fault diagnosis plays a critical role in various engineering practices by ensuring system reliability and safety, where timely detection mitigates potential hazards and minimizes operational downtime. However, the presence of uncertainties inevitably induces fluctuation characteristics in measured signals, significantly compromising the accuracy of traditional data-driven fault diagnosis approaches. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a novel convex model-based fault diagnosis (CMFD) framework to improve the accuracy of fault classification. By reviewing some fundamental concepts of evidence theory, a universal data-driven fault diagnosis framework is presented first. To measure the fluctuation phenomenon in statistical features, an uncertain feature extraction method is proposed by means of two convex models. Based on the geometric characteristic of convex models, a novel volume-based strategy for basic probability assignment (BPA) determination is subsequently proposed to deliver quantitative pattern matching. Considering the potential conflicts in multi-source diagnostic results, an evidence-based information fusion procedure is introduced to obtain consistent outcomes. Eventually, two case studies are investigated to validate the effectiveness of the proposed models and methods. Compared to existing probabilistic solutions for uncertainty scenarios, CMFD adapts better to limited samples and operates without distributional assumptions. By pioneering geometric exploitation of convex models for the similarity measure of uncertain fault features, CMFD bypasses the reliance on auxiliary classifiers and converts probabilistic discrepancies into more intuitive geometric relationships, significantly enhancing the interpretability of uncertainty-aware fault diagnosis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111714"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ship abnormal behaviour detection based on AIS data at the approach to ports 基于AIS数据的船舶进港异常行为检测
IF 11 1区 工程技术
Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111712
Dapei Liu, C. Guedes Soares
{"title":"Ship abnormal behaviour detection based on AIS data at the approach to ports","authors":"Dapei Liu,&nbsp;C. Guedes Soares","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111712","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111712","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes a novel framework for abnormal ship behaviour detection, extracting traffic characteristics in port approach waters from collected Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and establishing corresponding anomaly indicators to measure the degree of abnormal vessel behaviour. The method involves shipping route modelling, which consists of route centreline definition and boundaries quantification. Then, the constructed model is applied to the extraction of traffic position characteristics and the generation of GraphSAGE-based dynamic transportation patterns. Subsequently, the optimal distribution-based abnormal indicators of position, Speed Over Ground, and Course Over Ground are developed with the extracted position characteristics and generated dynamic patterns. The effectiveness of the proposed study is validated with the outbound behaviour abnormal indicators of Leixões port in Portugal. The results show objectively, effectively, and interpretably that the method quantifies vessel behaviour anomalies based on local traffic characteristics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111712"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seismic performance assessment of urban transportation networks: A unified approach to link damage and performance metrics 城市交通网络的抗震性能评估:一种连接损伤和性能指标的统一方法
IF 11 1区 工程技术
Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111713
Yasir Siraj , Huanjun Jiang , Liusheng He , Jiafeng Li
{"title":"Seismic performance assessment of urban transportation networks: A unified approach to link damage and performance metrics","authors":"Yasir Siraj ,&nbsp;Huanjun Jiang ,&nbsp;Liusheng He ,&nbsp;Jiafeng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111713","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111713","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Transportation networks are essential for the economic growth and functionality of societies. Their seismic performance is pivotal for assuring post-hazard resilience. However, its evaluation remains challenging due to the cumulative effect of component damage on the functionality of links with multiple bridges. Moreover, existing metrics often fail to provide an accurate and normalized representation of network performance across various disruption levels. Therefore, this study presented a novel approach, the Feasible Combinations Method (<em>FCM</em>) for link damage evaluation. Weighted-random distributions of bridge damage states and their feasible combinations were used to evaluate the probability of link damage states via Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, a new normalized performance metric, the Travel Cost Weighted Satisfied Demand (<em>TCWSD</em>) was introduced, which integrated satisfied travel demand with nonlinear changes in travel time during seismic events. The findings showed that <em>FCM</em> offered significant computational efficiency over the existing method with a maximum error of 0.3 %. The <em>TCWSD</em> consistently evaluated the network performance, mitigated the shortcomings of existing metrics, and showed very strong correlation of 93 % with network damage for three transportation networks. This study offers a practical tool for assessing network functionality, prioritizing retrofitting, optimizing disaster responses, and enhancing network resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111713"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Towards effective decision support for structural design and risk management: An information-dependent probabilistic system representation enhanced with support vector machine and unfair sampling 面向结构设计和风险管理的有效决策支持:基于支持向量机和不公平采样的信息依赖概率系统表示
IF 11 1区 工程技术
Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111600
Wei-Heng Zhang , Jianjun Qin , Da-Gang Lu , Yue Pan , Michael Havbro Faber
{"title":"Towards effective decision support for structural design and risk management: An information-dependent probabilistic system representation enhanced with support vector machine and unfair sampling","authors":"Wei-Heng Zhang ,&nbsp;Jianjun Qin ,&nbsp;Da-Gang Lu ,&nbsp;Yue Pan ,&nbsp;Michael Havbro Faber","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111600","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111600","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Structural design and risk management typically involve uncertainties related to structural performance and loading conditions, which must be effectively managed to ensure compliance with safety requirements. Additionally, the relationships among parameters influencing structural performance are often complex and not easily discernible, thereby complicating the decision-making process. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a decision support framework based on the concept of information-dependent probabilistic system representation. The framework aims to identify unacceptable design parameters in structural design and enhance risk management by updating probabilistic models of uncertain parameters for similar structures when new observational information becomes available. To overcome the computational challenges of structural reliability analysis, a support vector machine (SVM) is employed as a surrogate model for the finite element analysis typically used to evaluate the performance of engineering structures. Additionally, to handle the imbalance issue in the SVM training dataset, an unfair sampling method is introduced. An illustrative example involving a reinforced concrete structure subjected to earthquake loading is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111600"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improved algorithm for d-minimal cuts in reliability evaluation of multi-state flow networks 多状态流网络可靠性评估中的d-最小分割改进算法
IF 11 1区 工程技术
Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111707
Bei Xu , Yi-fan Hu , Huang-xiao Zhang , Yan-ping Zhu , Guang-han Bai
{"title":"Improved algorithm for d-minimal cuts in reliability evaluation of multi-state flow networks","authors":"Bei Xu ,&nbsp;Yi-fan Hu ,&nbsp;Huang-xiao Zhang ,&nbsp;Yan-ping Zhu ,&nbsp;Guang-han Bai","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111707","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111707","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multi-state flow networks (MFNs) play an important role in modelling several real-world systems with multiple working states corresponding to specific probability distributions. Reliability is an important index for the design and maintenance of MFNs, which is often obtained using <em>d</em>-minimal cuts (<em>d</em>-MCs). However, finding all <em>d</em>-MCs is an NP-hard problem. Traditional algorithms tend to generate undesired <em>d</em>-MC candidates, such as non-real or duplicate <em>d</em>-MCs, which require time-consuming post-processing, significantly impacting algorithmic efficiency. This study investigates the mechanism behind the generation of such undesired candidates and presents new theoretical findings to identify them. Existing algorithms are refined by eliminating redundant steps to verify real <em>d</em>-MCs. For duplicate <em>d</em>-MCs, a prevention mechanism is introduced by limiting the maximum states of specific components. Based on these, an improved algorithm is proposed to verify real <em>d</em>-MCs and prevent the generation of duplicate <em>d</em>-MCs. Both time complexity analysis and computational experiments demonstrate the superior efficiency of the proposed algorithm compared with existing methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111707"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants 核电厂网络安全风险分析的动态概率风险评估与博弈论
IF 11 1区 工程技术
Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111702
Pavan Kumar Vaddi , Xiaoxu Diao , Yunfei Zhao , Carol Smidts
{"title":"Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants","authors":"Pavan Kumar Vaddi ,&nbsp;Xiaoxu Diao ,&nbsp;Yunfei Zhao ,&nbsp;Carol Smidts","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111702","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111702","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nuclear Power Plants and energy systems have become more prone to cyber-attacks with their digitalization and the increased use of smart equipment. Hence, it is important to quantify the risk associated with cyber-attacks in such systems. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment which involves studying the evolution of a system due to random events and operator and attacker actions during a cyber-attack by employing a physics-based model of the system is a suitable framework to quantify cybersecurity risk in nuclear power plants. In addition to the plant dynamics, it is also important to model the strategies of the attackers and plant operators for an effective cybersecurity risk assessment. Game theory provides a set of necessary tools to model such strategic interactions. In this research, a framework that integrates dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with game theory for cybersecurity risk analysis in nuclear power plants is presented. The mathematical formulation is derived based on the theory of continuous event trees. We propose a game theory based action model, that utilizes physics-based rewards to define the strategies of attackers and operators at every decision epoch. As a case study, the risk associated with cyber-attacks on the digital components in the secondary side of a pressurized water reactor is studied using a reduced order model. A set of attacker actions and a set of operator actions are defined for the system. The operator and attacker interactions were modelled using simultaneous game, their action policies were computed using the concept of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and the evolution of the system was studied.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111702"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cavitation reliability assessment of aviation fuel centrifugal pumps combining kriging and subset simulation important sampling 结合kriging和子集模拟的航空燃油离心泵空化可靠性评估
IF 11 1区 工程技术
Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111706
Bo Liu , Jia Li , Wei Zhang , Lei Shi , Keke Li
{"title":"Cavitation reliability assessment of aviation fuel centrifugal pumps combining kriging and subset simulation important sampling","authors":"Bo Liu ,&nbsp;Jia Li ,&nbsp;Wei Zhang ,&nbsp;Lei Shi ,&nbsp;Keke Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111706","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111706","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cavitation in aviation fuel centrifugal pumps can lead to impeller erosion and performance degradation, posing significant reliability risks. To efficiently assess low-probability cavitation failures under multidimensional uncertainty, this study proposes a surrogate-based reliability analysis framework named AK-IEI-SSIS, which integrates Kriging modeling, an Improved Expected Improvement (IEI) learning function, and Subset Simulation Importance Sampling (SSIS). The framework adaptively refines sampling near failure boundaries to enhance accuracy and computational efficiency. Its performance is validated through multiple benchmark cases involving nonlinear and high-dimensional systems. A Python-based parametric platform is also developed to orchestrate parametric modeling, meshing, CFD simulation, and reliability analysis. Applied to an aviation fuel centrifugal pump, the framework accurately quantifies cavitation-induced failure probabilities as low as 5.63 × 10⁻⁴ using only 202 CFD evaluations, achieving a 99 % reduction in computational cost compared to Monte Carlo methods. Although demonstrated on a specific pump, the framework is applicable to reliability assessment of rotating fluid machinery under uncertainty, supporting reliability analysis and maintenance planning for next-generation aerospace propulsion systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"266 ","pages":"Article 111706"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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