Cavitation reliability assessment of aviation fuel centrifugal pumps combining kriging and subset simulation important sampling

IF 11 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2025.111706

Bo Liu , Jia Li , Wei Zhang , Lei Shi , Keke Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Cavitation in aviation fuel centrifugal pumps can lead to impeller erosion and performance degradation, posing significant reliability risks. To efficiently assess low-probability cavitation failures under multidimensional uncertainty, this study proposes a surrogate-based reliability analysis framework named AK-IEI-SSIS, which integrates Kriging modeling, an Improved Expected Improvement (IEI) learning function, and Subset Simulation Importance Sampling (SSIS). The framework adaptively refines sampling near failure boundaries to enhance accuracy and computational efficiency. Its performance is validated through multiple benchmark cases involving nonlinear and high-dimensional systems. A Python-based parametric platform is also developed to orchestrate parametric modeling, meshing, CFD simulation, and reliability analysis. Applied to an aviation fuel centrifugal pump, the framework accurately quantifies cavitation-induced failure probabilities as low as 5.63 × 10⁻⁴ using only 202 CFD evaluations, achieving a 99 % reduction in computational cost compared to Monte Carlo methods. Although demonstrated on a specific pump, the framework is applicable to reliability assessment of rotating fluid machinery under uncertainty, supporting reliability analysis and maintenance planning for next-generation aerospace propulsion systems.

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结合kriging和子集模拟的航空燃油离心泵空化可靠性评估

航空燃油离心泵的空化现象会导致叶轮的腐蚀和性能下降，给泵的可靠性带来重大风险。为了有效评估多维不确定性下的低概率空化故障，本研究提出了一种基于代理的可靠性分析框架AK-IEI-SSIS，该框架集成了Kriging模型、改进的期望改进（IEI）学习函数和子集模拟重要性抽样（SSIS）。该框架自适应细化失效边界附近的采样，以提高精度和计算效率。通过涉及非线性和高维系统的多个基准案例验证了其性能。此外，还开发了一个基于python的参数化平台，用于协调参数化建模、网格划分、CFD仿真和可靠性分析。应用于航空燃料离心泵，该框架精确量化空化引起的故障概率低至5.63 × 10⁻⁴，仅使用202个CFD评估，与蒙特卡罗方法相比，计算成本降低了99%。虽然在特定的泵上进行了演示，但该框架适用于不确定条件下旋转流体机械的可靠性评估，支持下一代航空航天推进系统的可靠性分析和维护计划。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程：工业

CiteScore

15.20

自引率

39.50%

发文量

621

审稿时长

67 days

期刊介绍： Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.