Reliability Engineering & System Safety最新文献_第8页

The method for exactly solving bi-objective RAP with phase-type distribution under mixed redundancy strategy 混合冗余策略下相位型分布双目标RAP精确求解方法

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111598

Jiangang Li , Dan Wang , Haoxiang Yang , Shubin Si

{"title":"The method for exactly solving bi-objective RAP with phase-type distribution under mixed redundancy strategy","authors":"Jiangang Li , Dan Wang , Haoxiang Yang , Shubin Si","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111598","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111598","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High reliability is essential for complex industrial systems. Redundancy design enhances system reliability, making the redundancy allocation problem (RAP) pivotal in reliability optimization. However, existing bi-objective RAP models under a mixed redundancy strategy rely on approximate reliability calculations or restrictive assumptions of exponential time-to-failure (TTF) distributions for components. Furthermore, heuristic-based approaches currently adopted for solving bi-objective RAP neither guarantee Pareto optimal nor systematically identify all optimal solutions. This study proposes a novel bi-objective RAP model with exact reliability evaluation, where the TTF distribution of components is considered a generalized phase-type distribution. For the first time, an exact dynamic programming (DP) algorithm is developed to solve bi-objective RAP models under a mixed redundancy strategy, ensuring the identification of complete Pareto-optimal solutions. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our work, with an accurate reliability evaluation method and an exact DP algorithm, achieves a higher-quality Pareto frontier with superior reliability and lower costs than previous studies. Additionally, the algorithm is used to obtain the exact solution of single-objective RAP, further expanding our research’s theoretical depth and application scope in reliability optimization. Finally, a case study about a supervisory control and data acquisition system confirms the method’s operational effectiveness and applicability in reliability engineering.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"265 ","pages":"Article 111598"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144903662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Residual classifier assisted robust optimization for resilience enhancement of power system against cyber attack 残差分类器辅助鲁棒优化增强电力系统抗网络攻击的弹性

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111599

Chuangzhi Li , Tianlei Zang , Buxiang Zhou , Shen Dong , Xiaoshun Zhang

{"title":"Residual classifier assisted robust optimization for resilience enhancement of power system against cyber attack","authors":"Chuangzhi Li , Tianlei Zang , Buxiang Zhou , Shen Dong , Xiaoshun Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111599","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111599","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the increasing intelligence and interconnectivity of facilities, the power system is facing increasingly complex cyber-physical security threats. Among them, the vulnerability of distance protection relays remains insufficiently addressed in prior research. To enhance the cyber-physical defense and resilience of transmission networks, a defender-attacker-defender framework is developed to optimize dynamic defense portfolios. The attacker is modeled to launch coordinated attacks on transmission lines and intrusion on distance protection relays. Although conventional column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithms typically identify worst-case scenarios, they notably ignore historical attack-defense patterns. To overcome this limitation, a residual classifier is employed to identify critical scenario patterns. The Lagrange function is embedded in the training process to enhance solution feasibility, and a selective correction method based on the one-norm function is formulated to improve the quality of enumerated attack scenarios. These learning-assisted steps enable more efficient robust optimization under dynamic conditions. Finally, the algorithm is validated on the IEEE 24-bus system. The simulation test demonstrates significant performance gains of this algorithm, including 84.0 % and 82.5 % reductions in iterations and computation time compared to the baseline C&CG algorithm.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"265 ","pages":"Article 111599"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144887141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

STCAGNN-RNKDE: a traffic accident prediction model for spatiotemporal combinatorial attention graph neural networks using Ripley’s K and network kernel density estimation STCAGNN-RNKDE：基于Ripley 's K和网络核密度估计的时空组合注意图神经网络交通事故预测模型

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111593

Pengfei Gao , Bin Shuai , Rui Zhang , Bao Wang

{"title":"STCAGNN-RNKDE: a traffic accident prediction model for spatiotemporal combinatorial attention graph neural networks using Ripley’s K and network kernel density estimation","authors":"Pengfei Gao , Bin Shuai , Rui Zhang , Bao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing research on road traffic accident prediction faces challenges such as unreasonable prediction target selection, incomplete integration of spatiotemporal information from multi‐source risk factors, inadequate consideration of factor sparsity, and insufficient characterization of spatial spillover effects on road risk. To address these issues, this paper proposes a spatiotemporal combinatorial attention graph neural network that integrates Network Ripley’s K function and Network Kernel Density Estimation (STCAGNN-RNKDE). By constructing road network subgraphs, the model achieves fine-grained temporal accident prediction at the actual road network level and incorporates three risk exposure features, traffic flow, traffic violations, and real-time travel intensity, into its predictive dimensions. Dedicated extraction and fusion modules then process heterogeneous risk factors across spatial and temporal dimensions. Moreover, Ripley’s K-NKDE is applied during data preprocessing to tackle the sparsity of influencing factors and accidents while capturing their spatial spillover effects for road risk. Experimental results indicate that 5-hop neighbor aggregation produces the optimal subgraph. Overall, our model outperforms baselines, achieving a 7.4 % recall gain, and it also demonstrates strong temporal robustness. The model structure is complete and reasonable, and it is found that spatiotemporal information > spatial information > temporal information. Ripley’s K-NKDE effectively addresses the sparsity of influencing factors and accidents and characterizes their spatial spillover effects on road traffic risk. Among risk exposure features, traffic violations > real-time travel intensity > traffic flow, and regarding overall risk information, spatiotemporal features > spatial features > temporal features.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"265 ","pages":"Article 111593"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144887054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cumulative damage risk assessment for transmission tower-line system considering copula-based joint distribution of wind speed and direction 考虑风速和风向联合分布的输电塔线系统累积损伤风险评估

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111595

Xin Zhang, Qiang Xie

{"title":"Cumulative damage risk assessment for transmission tower-line system considering copula-based joint distribution of wind speed and direction","authors":"Xin Zhang, Qiang Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111595","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111595","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a cumulative damage assessment framework for a transmission tower-line system under long-term wind loads from a holistic and dynamic spatiotemporal perspective. The joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction is obtained employing Copulas. Based on Miner rule, the damage resistance surface of the system under overall wind vectors is established by the rain-flow method. Joint probability distribution and damage resistance surface were utilized to introduce the damage risk of the system and derive its mathematical expression. Applying this framework, the overall damage risk of a service tower-line system designed in the 1990s was evaluated, and its life was predicted. The results indicate that Weibull and von Mises are suitable models for wind speed and direction marginal distributions in Linyi. The Gumbel copula was the best of five copula functions. The proposed damage resistance surface effectively reflects the damage resistance capacity of the element. The damage risk framework comprehensively captures the status of the system, enhancing life predictions. The tower-line system comprises multiple elements with similar high damage rather than just one or a few. During maintenance, comprehensive reinforcement should focus on locations with high damage risks to ensure the long-term safe service of the transmission lines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"265 ","pages":"Article 111595"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144892864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Landmark-node based reliability assessment for critical infrastructure networks 基于里程碑节点的关键基础设施网络可靠性评估

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111563

Manuel Herrera , Carlo Giudicianni , Manu Sasidharan , Robert Wright , Enrico Creaco , Ajith Kumar Parlikad

{"title":"Landmark-node based reliability assessment for critical infrastructure networks","authors":"Manuel Herrera , Carlo Giudicianni , Manu Sasidharan , Robert Wright , Enrico Creaco , Ajith Kumar Parlikad","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing the reliability of critical infrastructure networks, such as urban systems essential for city functions like electricity and water, is key for robust operation and risk management. Traditional methods for reliability estimation, such as minimal cut-sets and path enumeration, often become computationally infeasible for large-scale, complex networks due to the need to evaluate all possible node-to-node paths. This paper introduces a novel approach based on landmark nodes – critical nodes essential for maintaining network connectivity – to estimate reliability more efficiently. Instead of analysing all paths between nodes, the method focuses on those connecting regular nodes to landmark nodes, significantly reducing the number of paths considered and improving computational efficiency. The network is first decomposed using a graph clustering algorithm, producing internally dense subgraphs. Reliability is then evaluated through intra-subgraph and inter-subgraph paths. A bipartite network model is also employed to represent inter-cluster structure, accounting for failures in both nodes and links. This supports a multi-scale reliability analysis across local areas and the full network. The methodology is validated using benchmark power distribution networks to ensure reproducibility. To demonstrate practical relevance, it is also applied to a real-world case study involving the water distribution system of Pavia, Italy. This application highlights how key urban areas and components can be efficiently identified to prioritise maintenance and guide resource allocation, contributing to more resilient and sustainable infrastructure management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"265 ","pages":"Article 111563"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144887052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhancing evacuation safety in urban primary schools: an agent-based model integrating child development behaviour and health dynamics 加强城市小学疏散安全：结合儿童发展行为和健康动态的基于主体的模型

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111591

Homa Bahmani , Yibin Ao , Dujuan Yang , Qiang Xu , Jianjun Zhao

{"title":"Enhancing evacuation safety in urban primary schools: an agent-based model integrating child development behaviour and health dynamics","authors":"Homa Bahmani , Yibin Ao , Dujuan Yang , Qiang Xu , Jianjun Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111591","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111591","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Primary schools require specific evacuation plans considering children’s developmental vulnerabilities, but current models frequently overlook children’s behavioural and health dynamics. Our proposed reliability-driven agent-based modelling (ABM) framework incorporates the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) for decision-making and Dose-Response Model (DRM) for quantifying health hazards associated with smoke exposure, aiming to close this gap. Using real-world evacuation data from an urban primary school, we simulate risk scenarios to assess interactions between evacuation efficiency, environmental risks, and safety regulations. Results show that smoke density significantly affects system reliability, increasing evacuation time by 43.94% (±0.834) and decreasing evacuee health by 76.83% (±0.735) in the worst-case scenario. We found that more adult guides during evacuations could compensate for students' unpreparedness. However, teacher placement's efficacy and interaction vary greatly depending on smoke patterns. This outcome highlights the need for contingency-based evacuation plans customised to different environmental circumstances and acknowledges the challenges in evaluating the effectiveness of school evacuation strategies. This work contributes to schools’ system safety by offering adaptive solutions for dynamic risks, emphasising the importance of child-specific reliability specifications in school emergency planning. The framework offers practical ideas for urban resilience, enabling organisations to mitigate health hazards and enhance the safety of critical infrastructures in uncertain environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"265 ","pages":"Article 111591"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144887140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Slope reliability analysis of high rockfill dams considering stress-coupled spatial variability of friction angle 考虑摩擦角应力耦合空间变异性的高石坝边坡可靠度分析

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111597

Yinwang Wu , Weiye Li , Zhenyu Wu

{"title":"Slope reliability analysis of high rockfill dams considering stress-coupled spatial variability of friction angle","authors":"Yinwang Wu , Weiye Li , Zhenyu Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to the spatial variability of friction angle, which is related to the stress in the rockfill dam, its impact on slope reliability is significant and cannot be overlooked when evaluating the risk of instability in rockfill dams. By combining the finite element method with Karhunen-Loeve expansion, the impact of material parameter spatial variability on slope reliability can be comprehensively considered. However, in the slope reliability analysis of high rockfill dams, the number of random variables required to discretize the material parameter random fields is substantial. This can affect the accuracy of the reliability calculation results. To address this issue, a method for slope reliability analysis of high rockfill dams considering the stress-coupled spatial variability of friction angle is proposed in this paper. By combining the proposed method with a concrete-faced high rockfill dam, the effect of dam stress distribution on the spatial variability of friction angle is revealed. Furthermore, the slope reliability is calculated under both uncorrelated and correlated conditions for the nonlinear strength parameters. The results show that this method effectively reduces the dimensionality of the input variables. Furthermore, the optimal surrogate model constructed using this method achieves high prediction accuracy, significantly improving the reliability calculation accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"265 ","pages":"Article 111597"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144887507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants considering climate change 考虑气候变化的核电厂概率安全评价

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111590

Thomas Matteo Coscia , Francesco Di Maio , Gyunyoung Heo , Enrico Zio

引用次数: 0

Intrinsic drivers of urban flood disasters from the resilience perspective in China 弹性视角下中国城市洪涝灾害的内在驱动因素

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111596

Xiaojuan Li , Rixin Chen , Yifei Ren , C.Y. Jim

{"title":"Intrinsic drivers of urban flood disasters from the resilience perspective in China","authors":"Xiaojuan Li , Rixin Chen , Yifei Ren , C.Y. Jim","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111596","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111596","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban flood disasters pose substantial threats to public safety and urban development, with climate change exacerbating the intensity, frequency, and consequences of such events. While existing research has predominantly concentrated on flood control and disaster response, limited attention has been paid to the underlying drivers and evolutionary mechanisms of urban flood resilience. This study applies the resilience framework to develop an integrated methodology for assessing urban flood resilience. Focusing on three coastal provinces in China that frequently experience severe flooding, the study identifies fifteen key resilience drivers to construct a compound driver system. The evolution of flood resilience is examined through the lens of the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, which categorizes the drivers into three distinct dimensions. The Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Interpretative Structural Model (ISM) methods are employed to analyze the interrelationships and hierarchical structure among drivers. In parallel, a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach is used to construct causal-loop and stock-flow diagrams, revealing the complex interdependencies and critical pathways across resilience dimensions. The analysis identifies rainfall intensity as the most influential driver in shaping urban flood resilience. Scenario simulations based on the SD model explore variations in resilience performance under three developmental pathways. Findings suggest that enhancing response resilience is crucial under current flood control trajectories. This study contributes novel conceptual and methodological insights into the measurement and evolution of urban flood resilience. It offers actionable guidance for policymakers aiming to strengthen flood risk governance and urban safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"265 ","pages":"Article 111596"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144892940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-objective optimization of smart grid operations via preventive maintenance scheduling using time-dependent unavailability 基于时间依赖不可用性的预防性维护调度的智能电网运行多目标优化

IF 11 1区工程技术

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111567

Daniel Krpelik , Matej Vrtal , Radim Bris , Pavel Praks , Radek Fujdiak , Petr Toman

{"title":"Multi-objective optimization of smart grid operations via preventive maintenance scheduling using time-dependent unavailability","authors":"Daniel Krpelik , Matej Vrtal , Radim Bris , Pavel Praks , Radek Fujdiak , Petr Toman","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2025.111567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a method for multi-criteria optimization of system operations using transient operation models. Real systems often combine long-living components with rapid repairs, creating challenges for numerical integration due to fine discretization requirements. These challenges significantly increase the computational cost when evaluating renewal processes with recurrent terms of quadratic complexity in mission time. To address this, we derive new mathematical formulas for evaluating unavailability and operational costs of components under periodic, age-based preventive restoration. The key innovation is a decomposition of the renewal equation: repair-related terms are approximated analytically, eliminating the need for fine discretization throughout the process. A special formula is introduced for components with uniformly distributed repair times and mean time to repair much shorter than mean time to failure, applicable to many real-world systems. The accuracy of the proposed approach is validated against Monte Carlo simulations, showing significant reduction in computational effort. This efficiency enables repeated evaluations in optimization tasks, demonstrated on a real-world case involving interconnected energy and communication infrastructure in the Czech Republic. A multi-objective NSGA-II algorithm is employed to optimize the preventive replacement policy, minimizing both system maintenance cost and expected downtime. We also explore systems with components of non-zero initial age. Results show that relying solely on asymptotic approximations may lead to suboptimal strategies, potentially worsening performance. However, allowing preventive renewal of selected components at time zero enables identification of superior solutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":"265 ","pages":"Article 111567"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144864245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0