{"title":"A multi-valued decision diagrams-based method for reliability analysis of performance-sharing k-out-of-n: G system considering component degradation","authors":"Tianyuan Zhang , Liudong Xing , Yuchang Mo","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper models the reliability of a performance-sharing <em>k</em>-out-of-<em>n</em>: G system with heterogeneous degrading components and a performance-redistributing common bus. Each component may behave at various performance levels to meet its random demand. If one component exhibits performance beyond its demand, the redundant performance is redistributed to components with deficit performance via the common bus with limited capacity. The system fails if the number of operating components is less than <em>k</em> after sharing the redundant performance. A new analytical method based on multi-valued decision diagrams (MDDs) is put forward, which comprises an efficient model generation algorithm leveraging top-down simplification rules and a new ordering heuristic for improving MDD generation efficiency. The MDD evaluation engages the continuous-time Markov Chains to compute the steady-state probabilities of system components considering the degradation effects. Case studies of a wind power generation system and a data processing system as well as benchmark studies are conducted to illustrate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed method. A comparative study with the universal generating function-based method is also provided to further demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed MDD-based method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jie Liu , Fei Cai , Wanqing Wang , Haoyuan Zhu , Liangyun Teng , Xuehua Luo , Yi Chen , Chenwei Hao
{"title":"Research on Scenario Extrapolation and Emergency Decision-Making for Fire and Explosion Accidents at University Laboratories Based on BN-CBR","authors":"Jie Liu , Fei Cai , Wanqing Wang , Haoyuan Zhu , Liangyun Teng , Xuehua Luo , Yi Chen , Chenwei Hao","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To solve the problems of suddenness, uncertainty and untimely emergency decision-making related to fire and explosion accidents in university laboratories, a combined method of BN and CBR is introduced to analyze laboratory accidents. By summarizing the characteristics of 72 accident cases worldwide, four scenario elements with key roles are extracted by combining the public safety triangle theoretical model; a BN is established from the macro perspective, which is based on the construction of dynamic scenarios; the evolution path is analyzed via BN theory; and the probability of occurrence of accidents is quantified from the microscopic perspective, with a focus on the analysis of the accidental evolution process. A case similarity calculation is carried out via CBR, and the construction of a BN-CBR-assisted decision-making model is completed, verified and corrected in an case study. The results show that the BN-CBR model can quickly determine the accident evolution path and the most similar historical cases, and its quantitative probability calculation enables one to comprehensively grasp the real-time state of the whole accident and the emergency response in a timely manner, which provides a new way to approach emergency decision-making of accidents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142420980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Emergency evacuation risk assessment for toxic gas attacks in airport terminals: Model, algorithm, and application","authors":"Tianyi Luan , Wenmei Gai , Diange Sun , Hao Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110576","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110576","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Transportation infrastructure has often been the target of terrorist attacks, and mitigation of the risk of toxic gas attacks is a challenging task in the design of indoor emergency evacuation systems. Considering multiple emergency response modes, we propose an agent-based risk assessment model and its algorithm to integrate gas diffusion and pedestrian movement data for emergency response, quickly assessing average individual exposure risk. We assessed the exposure status of individuals with respect to their emergency response actions following a toxic gas attack in an airport terminal. The results indicate that in the event of a general gas attack on an airport terminal, ventilation must be immediately ceased along with early evacuation. In areas with a shelter-in-place environment, the ventilation mode and shelter-in-place time should be determined based on the concentration of indoor and outdoor gases. In areas with nerve gas exposure and high population density, a new exit must be established at evacuation bottlenecks, and pedestrians must be guided to evacuate while promptly closing ventilation. These results offer suggestions and strategies for emergency response and decision-making in airport terminals during such incidents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chen Wang , Liming Zhang , Ling Chen , Tian Tan , Cong Zhang
{"title":"Remaining useful life prediction of nuclear reactor control rod drive mechanism based on dynamic temporal convolutional network","authors":"Chen Wang , Liming Zhang , Ling Chen , Tian Tan , Cong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The control rod drive mechanism (CRDM) is a critical equipment of the nuclear reactor, and the prediction of its remaining useful life (RUL) is important for the efficient maintenance and ensuring the safe, reliable operation of nuclear power plants. In this paper, a novel framework for the RUL prediction of CRDM is proposed, which is a dynamic temporal convolution network (DTCN) based on dynamic activation function and attention mechanism. Firstly, the temporal convolution network (TCN) is used as the backbone of the prediction model, to extract the temporal dependence of the input data. Next, the dynamic activation function DReLU is integrated into the TCN, which can dynamically activate features and capture variable degradation information. Then, introducing the attention mechanism improves the influence of important high-level features extracted by the network on RUL prediction, thereby improving the efficiency of feature extraction in the network. Finally, the DTCN outputs the predicted RUL by performing non-linear mapping on the extracted features. The CRDM accelerated life test platform is established and a series of experiments are conducted using the collected CRDM full-life vibration dataset. The results demonstrated the performance and advantages of the proposed method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142442859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Efficient risk-based inspection framework: Balancing safety and budgetary constraints","authors":"Y. Javid","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110519","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110519","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Efficient equipment maintenance is paramount across various industries to mitigate energy wastage and avert potential disasters such as hazardous emissions, fires, and explosions. Within this context, the adoption of risk-based inspection strategies has emerged as a crucial method for assessing equipment integrity. This study integrates the principles of Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) with a novel two-objective mathematical model, resulting in a comprehensive framework for equipment inspection programs. The primary aim of this framework is to reduce overall risk exposure while optimizing inspection expenditures. Unlike conventional approaches, this methodology eliminates the necessity to define threshold risk levels. By integrating inspection costs into the model, the assessment of Failure Consequences, and thereby, the decision-making process has been streamlined. This innovative algorithm effectively balances the reduction of failure likelihood with the minimization of inspection costs, enhancing decision-making capabilities. Importantly, this approach offers significant protection against energy wastage and the occurrence of leaks through robust risk management strategies. The algorithm employs specialized operators to expedite the discovery of optimal solutions. Empirical validation through a case study conducted at a Petrochemical Plant highlights the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shihao Cao , Zhihua Wang , Qiong Wu , Xiangmin Ouyang , Xiaosheng Si , Chengrui Liu
{"title":"Failure time analysis for compound degradation procedures involving linear path and negative jumps","authors":"Shihao Cao , Zhihua Wang , Qiong Wu , Xiangmin Ouyang , Xiaosheng Si , Chengrui Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110566","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110566","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Failure time analysis for compound degradation process involving abrupt jumps has attracted significant attention in recent years. Particularly, considering the situation of recovery or maintenance, which exists extensively in project reality, degradation process with negative jumps has been increasingly highlighted. However, due to the randomness and the complicated nonmonotonicity aroused by negative jumps, analyzing its first hitting time distribution is a great challenge at current stage. In this paper, aiming at the failure time analysis itself, the concept of invalid epoch is proposed firstly based on the characteristics of this kind of degradation process. Then, a novel analytical solution of lifetime distribution under the concept of the first hitting time is derived in the form of Laplace–Stieltjes transform, and it is further extended to some typical cases. To demonstrate the feasibility and the effectiveness, a series of verifications are carried out comprehensively. Results show that the solution is well-performed under different parameter settings. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a real application of draught fans to illustrate the validity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qing Zhang , Shaochen Li , Tan Chin-Hon , Xiaofei Liu , Jingyuan Shen , Tielin Shi , Jianping Xuan
{"title":"Fault Impulse Inference and Cyclostationary Approximation: A feature-interpretable intelligent fault detection method for few-shot unsupervised domain adaptation","authors":"Qing Zhang , Shaochen Li , Tan Chin-Hon , Xiaofei Liu , Jingyuan Shen , Tielin Shi , Jianping Xuan","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110568","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the advancement of intelligent detection for rotating machinery, numerous domain adaptation methods have been devised to transfer detection knowledge from one source domain working condition to another target domain working condition, involving extensive transfer scenarios including labeled, few-shot labeled, and unlabeled target conditions. Yet, learning from sparsely labeled signals in the source domain working condition and transferring to unlabeled target conditions, termed few-shot unsupervised domain adaptation (FUDA), is closer to reality but almost unexplored. Diverging from the intuition of combining existing transfer and few-shot learning technologies, this paper pioneers a novel single learning principle focusing on the cyclostationary mechanism (CT) of fault signals. In its implementation, named cyclically enhanced cyclostationary variational autoencoder (CCTVAE), the CT principle motivates the encoder to infer domain-shared representations with fault impulses, and the decoder approximates the cyclostationary structure containing the clear fault and working condition information. Then, auxiliary samples for few-shot expansion are generated by adjusting cyclic parameters of the posterior distribution of representations. Experimentally, CCTVAE achieves commendable results on simulated and real fault datasets. Even for compound faults, domain-shared representations and generated auxiliary signals manifest interpretable fault-indicating spectral lines in the frequency domain, underscoring method reliability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142438441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qichao Yang, Baoping Tang, Lei Deng, Xiaolong Zhang, Jinzhou Wu
{"title":"A hybrid dual-frequency-informed spider net for RUL prognosis with adaptive IDP detection and outlier correction","authors":"Qichao Yang, Baoping Tang, Lei Deng, Xiaolong Zhang, Jinzhou Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110518","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110518","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present study proposes a novel framework to estimate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of bearings operating under variable operating conditions, addressing two critical challenges: early detection of the Initial Degradation Point (IDP) in bearings and correction of outlier values. A unique Spider cell prediction unit with dual-frequency correction is proposed. Firstly, a generalized adaptive method is introduced for early IDP detection, leveraging the slope and intercept, along with coupled <em>t</em>-tests to formulate a \"sum of slopes\" index for detecting the IDP. Secondly, a degradation feature extraction method is introduced, which utilizes synchronous pseudo speed in combination with sliding window averaging. Outlier correction for degradation feature indicators is achieved using constructed boundary conditions. Thirdly, a variational mode decomposition layer is proposed to decompose the input sample into different mode function components. Finally, a novel RUL prediction correction module, where two types of frequency domain feature extractors with trainable parameters are designed to adjust the prediction results of the Spider net by capturing both global trend changes and local details.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142420992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"PLIC-FSR-SYS: System reliability analysis based on parallel learning of influential components with filtered sample region","authors":"Qiangqiang Zhao, Jinyan Duan, Kang Jia, Jun Hong","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In practical engineering, system reliability analysis is highly concerned since many structures or products have multiple failure modes. Accordingly, this paper develops an innovative method for system reliability analysis by parallel learning of influential component limit-state functions with filtered sample region (PLIC-FSR-SYS) based on Kriging modeling. Different from the traditional adaptive learning methods that train only one component in each iteration when constructing the surrogate of the composite limit-state function, a new strategy is explored to adaptively identify several important components in one iteration so as to train them simultaneously. In the meanwhile, a filtering formula is explored to determine the fatal region so that the unimportant samples can be removed to further accelerate the training process. Based on the join forces of parallel learning of influential components and avoiding the training at unimportant samples, PLIC-FSR-SYS can achieve a fairly efficient system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes. Finally, four different case studies, including an engineering application to the ultra-voltage on-load tap-changer, are conducted to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results indicate that compared to traditional adaptive learning methods, the proposed method makes a significant efficiency improvement for system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Uncertainty-based multi-objective optimization in twin tunnel design considering fluid-solid coupling","authors":"Pengfei Qu , Limao Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ress.2024.110575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a multi-objective optimization framework based on uncertainty analysis, focusing on fluid–structure interaction in twin tunnel design. High-quality datasets are generated using three-dimensional fluid–structure interaction theory. Long Short-Term Memory-Attention (LSTM-Attention) models are used to simulate internal forces within the tunnel and ground settlement, improving prediction accuracy. The Snow Ablation Optimizer (SAO) adjusts the hyperparameters of the LSTM-Attention model. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework is introduced to enhance the model’s transparency and interpretability, aiding in understanding the model’s decision-making process. The hybrid Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) combined with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is employed for multi-objective optimization. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate probability constraints, ensuring that the optimization process yields stable and reliable solutions. A case study analyzes the optimization results under different tunnel radii and uncertainty conditions in detail, validating the method’s effectiveness. The study shows that considering uncertainty significantly enhances the accuracy and stability of the optimization results for internal forces and ground settlement. Additionally, under different tunnel radii and uncertainty conditions, the distribution of optimal solutions is more concentrated. This method provides a novel solution for multi-objective optimization in complex engineering problems and offers theoretical and practical guidance for engineering decision-making and optimization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54500,"journal":{"name":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}