Ecosphere最新文献

{"title":"Using multiple scales of movement to highlight risk–reward strategies of coyotes (Canis latrans) in mixed-use landscapes","authors":"Amy Van Scoyoc,&nbsp;Kendall L. Calhoun,&nbsp;Justin S. Brashares","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.4977","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4977","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Many wildlife species vary habitat selection across space, time, and behavior to maximize rewards and minimize risk. Multi-scale research approaches that identify variation in wildlife habitat selection can highlight not only habitat preferences and risk tolerance but also movement strategies that afford coexistence or cause conflict with humans. Here, we examined how anthropogenic and natural features influenced coyote (<i>Canis latrans</i>) habitat selection in a mixed-use, agricultural landscape in Mendocino County, California, USA. We used resource selection functions and hidden Markov models to test whether coyote selection for anthropogenic and natural features varied by time of day or by behavioral state (resting, foraging, and traveling). We found that coyotes avoided development, but, contrary to our expectations, coyotes selected for roads, agriculture, and areas with risk of human encounter and rifle use regardless of diel period or behavioral state. While traveling, coyotes increased selection for roads and avoided ruggedness, indicating that unpaved roads may enhance connectivity for coyotes in mixed-use landscapes. Finally, we found that coyotes selected for mountain lion habitat when resting and at night, signifying that risk from natural predators was not a factor in habitat selection at coarse scales. Coyote habitat selection for places and times associated with human activity, without variation across scales, signals a potential for conflict if coyotes are perceived by people as a nuisance.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"15 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.4977","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142089813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correcting for measurement errors in a long-term aerial survey with auxiliary photographic data","authors":"Jamie L. Brusa,&nbsp;Matthew T. Farr,&nbsp;Joseph Evenson,&nbsp;Emily Silverman,&nbsp;Bryan Murphie,&nbsp;Thomas A. Cyra,&nbsp;Heather J. Tschaekofske,&nbsp;Kyle A. Spragens,&nbsp;Sarah J. Converse","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.4961","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4961","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Long-term, large-scale monitoring of wildlife populations is an integral part of conservation research and management. However, some traditional monitoring protocols lack the information needed to account for sources of measurement error in data analyses. Ignoring measurement error, such as partial availability, imperfect detection, and species misidentification, can lead to mischaracterizations of population states and processes. Accounting for measurement error is key to robust monitoring of populations, which can inform a wide variety of decisions, including harvest, habitat restoration, and determination of the legal status of species. We undertook an effort to retroactively minimize bias in a large-scale, long-term monitoring program for marine birds in the Salish Sea, Washington, USA, by conducting an auxiliary study to jointly estimate components of measurement error. We built a novel model in a Bayesian framework that simultaneously harnessed human observer and photographic data types to produce estimates necessary to correct for the effects of partial availability, imperfect detection, and species misidentification. Across all 31 species identified in photographs, both observers had instances of undercounting and overcounting birds but tended to undercount (observers undercounted totals across all species on 69.3%–78.9% of transects). We estimated species-specific correction factors that can be used to correct both historical and future counts from the Salish Sea survey, which has been running since 1992. Our novel modeling framework can be applied in other multispecies monitoring contexts where minimal photographic data can be collected for the purposes of correcting for measurement error in large-scale, long-term datasets.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"15 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.4961","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142089812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Responses of C4 grasses to aridity reflect species-specific strategies in a semiarid savanna","authors":"Nicole A. Havrilchak,&nbsp;Jason B. West","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.4986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4986","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The C₄ Poaceae are a diverse group in terms of both evolutionary lineage and biochemistry. There is a distinct pattern in the distribution of C₄ grass groups with aridity; however, the mechanistic basis for this distribution is not well understood. Additionally, few studies have investigated the functional strategies of co-occurring C₄ grass species for dealing with aridity in their natural environments. We explored the coordination of leaf-level gas exchange, water use, and morphology among five co-occurring semiarid C₄ grasses belonging to divergent clades, biochemical subtypes, and size classes at three sites along a natural aridity gradient. More specifically, we measured predawn and midday water potential, stomatal conductance, water use efficiency, and photosynthesis. Leaf tissue was also collected for the analysis of stable isotopes of carbon and oxygen as well as for measurement of specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf width. Species differences in responsiveness of stomata to changes in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) were also assessed. It was expected that NAD-me species would maintain higher rates of photosynthesis, higher water use efficiency, and have more responsive stomata than other co-occurring species based on observed biogeographic patterns and past greenhouse studies. We found that Aristidoideae and Chloridoideae NAD-me-type grasses had greater stomatal sensitivity to VPD, consistent with a more isohydric strategy. However, midgrasses had both greater apparent water access and water use efficiency, regardless of subtype or lineage. PCK-type species had less responsive stomata and maintained lower levels of photosynthesis with increasing aridity. There were strong interspecific differences in δ¹³C, leaf width, and SLA; however, these were not significantly correlated with water use efficiency. C₄ grasses in our study did not fit discretely into functional groups as defined by lineage, biochemistry, or size class. Interspecific differences, evolutionary legacy, and biochemical pathway are likely to interact to determine water use and photosynthetic strategies of these plants. Control of water loss via highly responsive stomata may form the basis for dominance of certain C₄ grass groups in arid environments. These findings build on our understanding of contrasting strategies of C₄ grasses for dealing with aridity in their natural environments.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"15 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.4986","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142041605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Plasticity drives the trait variation of a foundation marsh species migrating into coastal forests with sea-level rise","authors":"Ezra J. Kottler,&nbsp;Matthew B. Hamilton,&nbsp;Keryn B. Gedan","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.4962","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4962","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate-driven ecosystem shifts occur through turnover in the foundation species which structure the landscape. Therefore, to predict the fate of areas undergoing climate-driven ecosystem shifts, one approach is to characterize ecological and evolutionary responses of foundation species along dynamic environmental gradients. One such gradient is the ecotone between tidal marshes and maritime forests in coastal areas of the US Mid-Atlantic region where accelerated sea-level rise and coastal storms of increased frequency and intensity are driving forest dieback and inland marsh migration. Mid-Atlantic tidal marshes are structured by marsh grasses which act as foundation species, and these grasses exhibit trait variation across their distribution from established marsh interior to their inland migration front. We conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment with <i>Spartina patens</i>, a dominant high marsh grass and foundation species, between established populations in the high marsh and range edge populations in the forest understory at three Mid-Atlantic sites. We monitored environmental conditions in marsh and forest understory habitats, measured plant traits (above- and belowground biomass, specific leaf area, leaf N and C concentrations) in transplanted and reference non-transplanted individuals, and used microsatellite markers to determine the genetic identity of transplants to quantify clonality between habitats and sites. Individuals transplanted into the forest understory exhibited a plastic shift in resource allocation to aboveground structures associated with light acquisition, with shifts in transplants making them more morphologically similar to reference individuals sampled from the forest habitat. Clonal diversity and genetic distance among transplants were relatively high at two of three sites, but individuals at all sites exhibited trans-habitat plasticity regardless of clonal diversity or a lack thereof. Individuals grown in the forest understory showed lower vegetative and reproductive fitness. Nevertheless, the trait plasticity exhibited by this species allowed individuals from the forest that were transplanted into the marsh to recoup significant biomass in only a single growing season. We predict high plasticity will facilitate the persistence of colonizing <i>S. patens</i> individuals under suboptimal forest shade conditions until forest dieback increases light availability, ultimately promoting continued inland migration of this foundation species under sea-level rise.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"15 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.4962","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142041604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-distance post-release movements challenge the metapopulation restoration of Bearded Vultures","authors":"Cécile Tréhin,&nbsp;Olivier Duriez,&nbsp;François Sarrazin,&nbsp;Benoit Betton,&nbsp;Jocelyn Fonderflick,&nbsp;Franziska Loercher,&nbsp;Etienne Marlé,&nbsp;Jean-Francois Seguin,&nbsp;Julien Traversier,&nbsp;Noémie Ziletti,&nbsp;Jean-Baptiste Mihoub","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.4856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4856","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Restoring ecological dynamics is a key objective of conservation translocations. Exemplarily, reconnecting the reintroduced alpine populations with native Pyrenean populations through re-establishing locally extinct populations in between, in the Causses and the Pre-Alps, is a major goal for the long-term conservation of Bearded Vultures in Europe. Understanding Bearded Vultures' post-release movements and foraging behavior is critical to understanding the settlement of newly restored populations and to supporting conservation measures. The telemetric monitoring of 43 translocated and wild-born juveniles allowed us to investigate whether differences exist in post-release movements and foraging behavior during the first year of life between reintroduced and native populations. Medium- and long-distance exploration movements start during the spring following fledging for both translocated and wild-born individuals. However, birds translocated in the most distant release site (Causses) exhibited greater exploration distances with no clear directional movement pattern, had smaller home ranges, and had a stronger preference for supplementary feeding stations than those from other populations. Although some birds translocated in the Pre-Alps displayed similar behaviors, the pattern is not as strong as in the Causses, likely because of the proximity to the breeding populations reintroduced in the Alps or differences in the number and management of supplementary feeding stations. Preference for supplementary feeding stations (SFS) mostly occurred in the Pre-Alps and the native populations, but was lower in the Causses. Seasonal variations in SFS preference were consistent among populations, with a peak in the first spring following fledging. Beyond documenting post-release movements in Bearded Vultures, we suggest better accounting for the demographic consequences of behaviors to track conservation translocation effectiveness, at both local and regional scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"15 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.4856","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extending Canadian forest disturbance history maps prior to 1985","authors":"David L. P. Correia,&nbsp;Luc Guindon,&nbsp;Marc-André Parisien","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.4956","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4956","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An accurate depiction of wildfire, harvesting, and insect outbreak disturbances is essential for sustainable ecosystem management of forests in Canada. Even though the advent of temporally consistent 30-m resolution Landsat data has enabled the detailed mapping of forest disturbances in Canada from 1985 onward, the disturbance record prior to 1985 remains sparse. This study aimed to extend the existing pre-1985 disturbance history record by mapping wildfire, harvest, and insect outbreaks in Canadian forests between 1965 and 1984. Our geospatial data processing methodology relied on multilayer perceptrons (MLP) trained on spectral recovery signatures to map and age these disturbances. Our model detected approximately 4.8, 7.3, and 3.8 million ha of burnt, harvested, and insect-ravaged forest areas, respectively, that were absent from national and provincial disturbance databases and forest inventories. Results were validated using both internal and external validation datasets. Our disturbance detection methodology was highly effective, with an internal validation kappa score of 0.91 and an external score of 0.81. The fire and harvest age disturbance MLPs, whose predictions can also be used as a proxy of forest stand age, performed adequately on the internal (fire <i>R</i>² = 0.675; root mean squared error [RMSE] = 4.42; harvest <i>R</i>² = 0.723; RMSE = 3.17) and external validation datasets (fire <i>R</i>² = 0.242; RMSE = 4.69; harvest <i>R</i>² = 0.257; RMSE = 5.46), outperforming existing forest age disturbance products. Finally, we relied on several open data products, such as provincial forest inventories, to correct our disturbance type and year prediction whenever these more reliable, but incomplete, data sources were available. Specific years were not assigned to insect outbreaks due to the lack of dependable training and validation data. We also illustrate how extending the existing forest disturbance record by 20 years may provide a more in-depth understanding of landscape-disturbance dynamics with a case study of the 2023 Canadian wildfire season.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"15 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.4956","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variation in the role of the flag-leaf in reproductive effort of semiarid rangeland bunchgrasses","authors":"Erik P. Hamerlynck,&nbsp;Kathleen M. Quigley,&nbsp;Rory C. O'Connor","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.4870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4870","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding the mechanisms underlying viable seed production of perennial bunchgrasses is critical to improving restoration and conservation success in Great Basin sagebrush steppe rangelands. We studied the effects of pre- and post-anthesis flag-leaf removal and post-anthesis seed-head shading on reproductive effort in two important rangeland restoration species, the exotic crested wheatgrass (<i>Agropyron cristatum</i>) and native squirreltail (<i>Elymus elymoides</i>). Flag-leaf removal had distinct, species-specific effects on seed filling. Pre-anthesis flag-leaf removal in crested wheatgrass reduced the proportion of filled seeds, while post-anthesis removal did not. In contrast, squirreltail increased filled seed proportions regardless of flag-leaf removal timing. Neither flag-leaf removal treatment affected seed quality, as quantified by seed-specific mass (in grams per square meter), which significantly reduced with seed-head shading in both species. Seed-head shading reduced total propagule production (unfilled + filled seeds) in crested wheatgrass but increased it in squirreltail, possibly due to our shading method protecting from seed-head herbivory or high-light stress. Flag-leaf removal in the squirreltail also induced a negative shading effect on filled seed area, mass, and specific mass. These findings suggest flag leaves can modulate reproductive effort outside of seed provisioning, either by maintaining pre-fertilized seed viability, as in crested wheatgrass, or acting as a competitive sink to the fully emerged seed-head, as in squirreltail. Moreover, this study demonstrates photosynthetic activity by the seed-head itself is critical to the expression of seed quality traits important to seedling establishment success of semiarid perennial bunchgrasses.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"15 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.4870","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental determinants of bryophyte community change over time","authors":"Eric Shershen,&nbsp;Sarah E. Stehn,&nbsp;Jessica M. Budke","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.4924","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4924","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Environmental factors mediating community change over time have been well documented for vascular plants, but not for their non-vascular relatives, bryophytes. Elevation is one variable that has been explored regarding bryophyte community change wherein as elevation increases, bryophyte communities increase in diversity and abundance, whereas diversity and abundance decline for vascular plant communities. This begs the question, how might other environmental variables such as slope and aspect influence bryophyte communities, and how might these variables drive community changes over time? Our study focused on bryophyte communities in high elevation, spruce-fir zones in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), located in the Southeastern United States to answer this question. Plots established in 2007 were revisited and reinventoried in 2020. Comparisons were drawn to determine whether changes in bryophyte coverage corresponded to canopy cover change and environmental factors including elevation, slope, and aspect. Diversity and abundance at the two timepoints were analyzed. Alpha diversity and turnover across orders of <i>q</i> were compared for different elevation zones. Bryophyte alpha diversity at <i>q</i> = 0 significantly declined over time in association with elevation, but at <i>q</i> = 2, changes in alpha diversity varied according to changes in gap fraction, a measure of canopy cover, and slope. Bryophyte coverage remained stable except in the highest elevation zone dominated by fir trees where there was a decline in coverage predicted by aspect. There were high rates of turnover across all elevation zones regardless of Hill number. In contrast with other studies which examine how environmental variables mediate community changes at <i>q</i> = 0, the species richness of a community, our study shows that the environmental drivers of bryophyte community change vary depending on how abundance is weighted.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"15 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.4924","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142007241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model","authors":"Baoliang Chang,&nbsp;Chen Huang,&nbsp;Bingming Chen,&nbsp;Ziwen Wang,&nbsp;Xingyuan He,&nbsp;Wei Chen,&nbsp;Yanqing Huang,&nbsp;Yue Zhang,&nbsp;Shuai Yu","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.4965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4965","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is poised to exert a significant impact on species distribution in the future, and <i>Taxus cuspidata</i> as an endangered species is no exception. Predicting the potential distribution of <i>T. cuspidata</i> is essential for decision-makers to develop conservation policies and explicitly implement conservation measures. In this study, a combined model was employed to predict potentially suitable habitats for <i>T. cuspidata</i> based on extant data of <i>T. cuspidata</i> distributions in northeastern China. Our findings suggest that mean diurnal range (bio2) and isothermality (bio3) were identified as dominant factors influencing <i>T. cuspidata</i> distribution. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas increased only in the SSP126 scenario in the 2070s, declining in all other scenarios. In all climate scenarios, the centroid of suitable habitats ultimately shows a trend in northward movement. Decreases in suitable habitat predominantly occurred in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, Baishan city, and Tonghua city. Overall, this study highlights a projected habitat reduction due to climate change. Recommendations entail the strategic establishment of nature reserves and the implementation of initiatives aimed at population replenishment.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"15 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.4965","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142007238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying the effects of nest management and environmental change on demography of an endangered sea turtle","authors":"Beth E. Ross,&nbsp;Matthew A. Boggie,&nbsp;Angela Anders,&nbsp;Donna Shaver","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.4982","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4982","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding the demographic drivers of reintroduced and translocated populations is critical for species establishment and persistence. Given the large number of resources required to conduct ongoing reintroduction and reinforcement programs, additional information on population responses to management practices could help identify key actions that best benefit a species while ensuring economic feasibility. An integrated population model (IPM) can be used to assess and forecast the demographic consequences of different management practices and the interrelationship between management effects, population dynamics, and environmental change. We used an IPM to inform the potential impacts of nest management practices and global climate change on the vital rates of the Texas nesting colony of the endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtle. We used the IPM to estimate population parameters including adult survival, population growth rate, and abundance of nesting females in Texas. Additionally, given potential future scenarios for management and environmental change, we used the IPM to forecast population change and estimate the probability of persistence of the Texas population under future environmental and management scenarios. Future scenarios for nest management that had some level of management (i.e., not all nests were left in situ) resulted in population growth rates that were likely stable or increasing. Scenarios in which all nests were left in situ resulted in stable or decreasing population growth rates as well as a probability of extirpation from Texas &gt;1 (<i>p</i>(<i>N</i> = 0 in 2100) = 0.25–0.72). Despite uncertainty in forecasted abundance and population growth rates under all scenarios, our model still predicted stable or increasing population growth rates with a continuation of current nest management practices. In contrast, we found that reduced population growth was expected with reduced nest management effort, and population decline and extirpation was expected with no management. Our IPM framework provides an example of how future management scenarios can be evaluated critically to determine population changes through time under future environmental uncertainty.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"15 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.4982","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141991652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}