Habitat suitability of common leopard in northern Pakistan

Habitat fragmentation and loss are considered primary threats to common leopards (Panthera pardus) across their geographical range. We investigated anthropogenic and environmental factors influencing the habitat suitability of leopards in northern Pakistan using an ensemble model of direct and indirect leopard signs during 2014–2022. Using location data from 206 leopard sightings the ensemble model's performance was good (true skill statistic, TSS = 0.52). Habitat suitability was highest in forest cover and negatively related to the density of settlements and roads. Habitat suitability peaked at intermediate elevations (about 1000–2000 m). Based on the ensemble model, we estimated 4543 km² of leopard habitat in northern Pakistan, of which 3144 km² (69%) occurred in six contiguous patches of at least 58 km² (range = 65–951 km²), the minimum size to support one female leopard. There was one patch of leopard habitat at least 58 km² within a protected area, and overall, 36% of total protected areas were estimated as suitable. Our findings suggest that the current network of protected areas in northern Pakistan does not adequately represent suitable habitat for leopards; increasing forest cover and expanding the protected area network could improve leopard habitat suitability.