Assessing the effects of climate and visitor use on amphibian occupancy in a protected landscape with long-term data

Determining where animals are, and if they are persisting across protected landscapes, is necessary to implement appropriate management and conservation actions. For long-lived animals and those with boom-and-bust life histories, perspective across time contributes to discerning temporal trends in occupancy and persistence, and potentially in identifying mechanisms affecting those parameters. Long-term data are particularly useful in protected areas to quantify indicators of change that may be less obvious or occur more slowly. We used long-term amphibian data from Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) in a Bayesian occupancy modeling framework to estimate changes in occupancy, colonization, and persistence of amphibians over three decades and to explore the effects of climate, landscape change, and visitor use as mechanisms behind observed changes. Our results indicate that colonization and persistence are low and/or declining for Pseudacris maculata, Lithobates sylvaticus, and Ambystoma mavortium, and that occupied catchments are increasingly isolated. We found visitor use to have a consistently negative effect on occupancy and persistence of amphibians in RMNP, and that all species are more likely to occupy catchments with more complex habitat and a higher proportion of wetlands. While these results are sobering, they also provide a way forward where mitigation efforts can target identified drivers of change.