Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Divergent impacts of Tibetan Plateau lakes on local and downstream water availability","authors":"Yu-Feng Dai ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen ,&nbsp;Lei Wang ,&nbsp;Tinghai Ou ,&nbsp;Hong-Bin Chen ,&nbsp;Xiao-Wen Zhang ,&nbsp;Yang Gao ,&nbsp;Tan-Dong Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Tibetan Plateau (TP), a key amplifier of global climate change, has undergone widespread lake expansion, altering regional hydrology through intensified lake–atmosphere interactions. This effect is particularly pronounced during the autumn (October–November) after the monsoon; however, its mechanisms and downstream impacts remain underexplored. This study integrates high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and reanalysis data (1980–2019) to quantify how TP lake clusters regulate moisture transport and water availability via two competing mechanisms: retention (local moisture recycling) and compensation (downwind moisture export). In strong lake-effect (LE) years, intensified thermal convection and weak westerlies increase precipitation over lakes (retention), reducing moisture transport to the Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow River source regions, thereby decreasing downstream LE precipitation and water availability. In contrast, weak LE years, characterised by stronger westerlies, promote efficient LE moisture export (compensation), increasing LE precipitation and water availability in the downstream basins. A long-term decline in LE water availability over the lake region (−0.18 Gt per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) is correlated with an increase in river basins (+0.04 Gt per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.1), driven by enhanced lake evaporation and subsequent downwind precipitation. Extreme years (e.g. 1997 vs 1999) demonstrate the basin-scale impacts of these mechanisms, with the Yellow River source facing a 0.45 Gt deficit in retention-dominated years but a 0.73 Gt surplus during compensation phases. These findings redefine TP lakes as critical retainers and redistributors of water resources, directly affecting dry-season water security across river basins under climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 152-162"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic characteristics of carbon inequality in China's inter-regional trade","authors":"Bo-Wen Wang ,&nbsp;Xue-Peng Guo ,&nbsp;Jun Pang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economic-based trade patterns can result in an imbalance between environmental costs and economic benefits, and this mismatch between regional emission rights and development rights leads to trade-driven carbon inequality. Current approaches lack dynamic indicators to capture the temporal evolution of trade-related carbon inequality and to provide targeted policy guidance. This study employs an environmentally extended multi-regional input‒output model to assess carbon inequality in inter-provincial trade across China. Importantly, we extend the Tapio decoupling theory to introduce the Tapio Carbon Inequality Index (Tapio-Ine) and a novel framework for evaluating inter-temporal changes in carbon inequality. Based on trend evolution, all provinces are categorized into four groups and six dynamic states, with five provinces identified as bearing asymmetric carbon burdens. By distinguishing between investment- and consumption-driven demands, as well as production- and consumption-based carbon intensities, and applying Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA), we identify the key drivers of provincial carbon inequality. Our findings indicate that carbon inequality is intensifying in Liaoning, Shandong and Gansu, with Xinjiang experiencing the most pronounced deterioration. Provinces exhibiting worsening inequality can adopt carbon footprint labeling to limit carbon-intensive exports and promote the development of high-value-added industries tailored to local resource endowments. Meanwhile, developed provinces should mitigate consumption-based emissions by promoting carbon credits, issuing green consumption vouchers, and implementing green public procurement policies. Provinces contributing to carbon inequality should also share best practices in low-carbon production with trading partners to support the decarbonization of inter-regional supply chains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 218-231"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Irrigated agriculture on the southern and northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains faces different risks of water scarcity","authors":"Ze-Long Yang ,&nbsp;Peng Bai ,&nbsp;Kai-Wen Wang ,&nbsp;Yuan Tian ,&nbsp;Xiao-Mang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Irrigated agriculture dependent on runoff from the Tianshan Mountains underpins socioeconomic development in the arid regions of Central Asia. However, ongoing warming and agricultural expansion profoundly alter local water supply and demand. Whether future mountain water supplies can meet rising irrigation demand remains unclear, leaving a critical gap in assessing water security in one of the world's most vulnerable agricultural frontiers. Here, we quantified the future risks to irrigation water security in the Tianshan Mountains by comparing changes in mountain runoff and downstream irrigation demand between the historical (1991–2020) and future (2071–2100) periods. The results indicate that the risk of irrigation water scarcity in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is projected to increase under future warming scenarios due to the growing imbalance between mountain runoff and downstream irrigation demand. The percentage of unmet irrigation demand in the Aibi Lake River System and Mid-branch River System of the north slope is projected to increase by 24%–32% and 14%–20%, respectively, in the future period compared to the historical period. In contrast, the risk in the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is expected to be mitigated, as projected increases in mountain runoff in the Weigan River System and Kaidu River System exceed rising irrigation demand by an average of 0.06 and 0.28 km³, respectively. To better reconcile the spatial distribution of irrigation demand and water resources, we recommend shifting 20% of the sown area in the Aibi Lake River System and 10% in the Mid-branch River System to the south slope.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 128-138"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Widespread loss of ecosystem resilience in response of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming","authors":"Guo-Yan Yang ,&nbsp;Lan-Lan Guo ,&nbsp;Yu-Hao Feng ,&nbsp;Yang Chu ,&nbsp;Tie-Wei Li ,&nbsp;Hong-Tao Xu ,&nbsp;Huan Zheng ,&nbsp;Bin He","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global changes are reshaping the structure and function of ecosystems, exerting profound impacts on the maintenance and enhancement of terrestrial ecosystem resilience. However, the future dynamics of ecosystem resilience in response to ongoing global warming remain unclear. Here, we investigate changes in terrestrial ecosystem resilience under global warming of 1.5 °C (GW1.5) and 2 °C (GW2) on the basis of leaf area index (LAI) data from CMIP6 simulations. Compared to the historical period (1985–2014), limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C could reduce the proportion of regions experiencing declines in resilience by approximately 12% (SSP2-4.5) and 15% (SSP5-8.5). Compared with the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the resilience of boreal regions shows an increasing trend at GW1.5 under SSP2-4.5. An additional 0.5 °C of warming is projected to increase ecosystem resilience in tropical regions under SSP2-4.5, while exacerbating declines in the resilience of boreal regions under both scenarios. Long-term trend analysis indicates that 70% (SSP2-4.5) of regions and 79% (SSP5-8.5) will experience shifts from resilience gains to losses by the end of the 21st century, which are likely regulated by CO₂ fertilization effects. Our findings highlight that even a half-degree difference in warming can markedly reshape terrestrial ecosystem resilience by mitigating overall declines and altering regional trajectories, underscoring the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 117-127"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the 21st-century response of Greenland's Zachariæ Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glaciers to atmosphere–ocean forcing and friction laws","authors":"Yu-Ting Dong ,&nbsp;Hai-Yang Zhu ,&nbsp;Teng Li ,&nbsp;Ji Zhao ,&nbsp;Chang-Liang Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent rapid retreat of outlet glaciers in Northeast Greenland has raised concerns over their future stability and sea-level-rise potential. However, large uncertainties remain in long-term projections due to limited constraints on basal friction and external forcings. Here, we use the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to simulate the century-scale evolution (2018–2100) of Zachariæ Isstrøm (ZI) and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79N) glaciers under a suite of atmosphere–ocean forcing scenarios, with a systematic evaluation of how different basal friction laws and parameterizations influence ice-dynamic responses. ZI Glacier exhibits limited retreat (20–25 km) under the most extreme ocean forcing (frontal melt = 6 m/d; basal melt = 90–0 m per year from 450 to 100 m b.s.l.) and remains pinned on a subglacial ridge about 25 km inland from its 2018 terminus, even under the strongest climate scenarios (MIROC5_RCP8.5, MPI-ESM_SSP5-8.5). By contrast, 79N Glacier experiences more sustained ice-shelf thinning and grounding-line retreat, with local thickness reductions approaching 200 m in some experiments. Both frontal sides of the 79N ice shelf show partial detachment even under low-emission scenarios (MIROC5_RCP2.6, MPI-ESM_SSP1-2.6), indicating an elevated risk of structural collapse. Among the tested forcings, atmospheric warming produces the largest total ice-mass loss, yielding a combined sea-level contribution of ∼3 mm by 2100 under high-emission scenarios, while ocean thermal forcing and basal friction exert comparatively smaller effects. Despite this dominant atmospheric influence, our results highlight that grounding-zone basal conditions critically modulate glacier sensitivity and remain a major source of uncertainty in Greenland's sea-level-rise projections.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 65-78"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Downscaling daily climate data with super-resolution and CMIP6 global climate models to predict the climate in China","authors":"Fu-Yao Zhang ,&nbsp;Yun-Xi Liu ,&nbsp;Xiu-Bin Li ,&nbsp;Xue Wang ,&nbsp;Ming-Hong Tan ,&nbsp;Liang-Jie Xin","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traditional downscaling methods are often hampered by high computational costs and assumptions of statistical stationarity, which compromise the reliability of future regional climate risk assessments. To address these problems, we developed a downscaling framework that integrates super-resolution (SR) deep learning from computer vision into climate science by systematically comparing and evaluating eight distinct SR architectures. The optimal model was identified through a comparative evaluation of these super-resolution models, and the GCM climate data from CMCC-ESM2 and NorESM2-MM were downscaled to 10 km across China. The residual channel attention network (RCAN) model outperformed the other models in downscaling the four selected climate variables (tas, pr, rsds and sfcWind). The RCAN model achieved the highest <em>R</em>² values for tas (0.996), pr (0.906), rsds (0.992) and sfcWind (0.965), along with the lowest mean absolute errors (MAEs) for tas (0.428 K), pr (0.540 mm), rsds (3.329 W/m²) and sfcWind (0.172 m/s). In addition, the downscaling performance achieved with RCAN had minimal errors and stable results at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. Seasonal <em>R</em>² values for tas consistently exceeded 0.994, and the monthly MAE for sfcWind showed a minimal fluctuation amplitude of only 0.025 m/s throughout the year. Seasonal fluctuations were noted in rsds and pr during summer, whereas tas and sfcWind errors remained stable throughout the year. Future climate projections for 2015–2100 based on downscaled GCMs show marked warming trends, with temperature increases of up to 0.83 K per decade under SSP-585 and precipitation increasing by up to 23.46 mm per decade. Solar radiation trends vary by scenario and region, whereas wind speeds decline consistently across all scenarios. This framework, together with the optimally selected RCAN model, demonstrates a strong capability to generate high-fidelity 10-km climate data that effectively capture local topographic and climatic features. Such an enhancement substantially improves the precision of regional climate change assessments, providing a more robust scientific foundation for developing targeted adaptation strategies and supporting informed decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 79-90"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global carbon neutrality progress assessment and typology classification in 2025","authors":"Zi-Chen Li ,&nbsp;Tian-Yi Zhang ,&nbsp;Shi-Hui Zhang ,&nbsp;Xin-Zhu Zheng ,&nbsp;Can Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, global climate governance has shifted from ‘commitment to targets’ to ‘implementation of actions’. Systematic evaluation of national climate progress is essential for achieving the Agreement's targets. This study uses 217 indicators from 198 countries and regions to build a comprehensive assessment framework covering target, policy, action, and effectiveness. The results show that, between 2024 and 2025, the global carbon neutrality process is characterized by steady progress in target and policy, stagnation in action, and limited effectiveness in emission reductions. Progress in target and policy reflects a continued global trend toward green transformation, despite fluctuations in some countries. The lack of visible emission reductions is mainly due to insufficient policy enforcement and delays in technological implementation. Based on target and effectiveness performance, countries are grouped into four groups: Climate Leaders, Low-Key Achievers, Transition Challengers and Emerging Players. In 2025, 92 countries shifted between these groups, showing pronounced dynamics. This study provides insights into the differences and changes in national approaches to climate targets, policy, and technology, contributing to global climate governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 232-236"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Omics insights into ocean health: Molecular adaptations and ecosystem resilience under climate stress","authors":"Satheeswaran Thangaraj ,&nbsp;Jun Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive research documenting the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems, the molecular mechanisms driving organismal and ecosystem resilience to ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation remain insufficiently understood. This review addresses this knowledge gap by synthesizing recent advances in omics technologies—including genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and epigenomics—that illuminate adaptive genetic, metabolic, and epigenetic processes in marine organisms. These approaches help identify climate-tolerant genetic variants, uncover metabolic pathways for stress mitigation, and reveal epigenetic modifications enabling rapid adaptation. Together, such insights are transforming biodiversity monitoring, predictive ecosystem modeling, and the evidence-based design of climate-resilient marine protected areas (MPAs) grounded in genomic and functional diversity. Studies on marine microbial communities further provide promising avenues for blue carbon ecosystem enhancement and climate mitigation. Integrating omics findings into global governance frameworks, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and International Maritime Organization (IMO), strengthens adaptive fisheries management, spatial planning, and climate-resilient policy. Key challenges for multi-omics integration are discussed alongside innovative solutions, such as integrative analytical approaches and the adoption of standardized molecular indicators. By bridging molecular science, policy, and management, this review outlines how interdisciplinary collaboration can advance adaptive and sustainable stewardship of the ocean in an era of unprecedented environmental change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 199-217"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing coupling of hot‒dry winds and drought across China: Observational evidence and future projection","authors":"Yao Feng ,&nbsp;Fu-Bao Sun ,&nbsp;Hong Wang ,&nbsp;Fa Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hot‒dry winds (HDW) and droughts are two prevailing climate hazards posing increasing threats to human societies and natural ecosystems. Insights into compound HDW and drought events (CHDWDs) fill gaps in understanding their synergistic pattern and enable more disaster prevention strategies to mitigate consequent damage. By using meteorological observations and multi-model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we analyzed the historical spatiotemporal patterns of HDWs, droughts, and CHDWDs across China, projected their future changes under different SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenarios, and quantified contributions of individual events to CHDWD frequency and intensity. Findings have revealed intensified HDW severity (−0.05 per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) and drought conditions (−0.07 per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01) during 1980–2022, with a strong positive correlation (<em>r</em> = 0.79, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01) between them. The likelihood of CHDWDs has significantly increased across China (0.093 per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01), with drylands being more susceptible. Droughts exert a larger influence on CHDWDs in arid regions (77%–91% to frequency and 55%–76% to intensity), while HDWs are more influential in humid areas (41%–46% to frequency and 57%–64% to intensity). Future simulations project increased frequency and strengthened intensity of CHDWDs from 2075 to 2100 under SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0. Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP1-2.6, droughts dominate CHDWD frequency (68%–87%) in most regions, while under SSP5-8.5, HDWs contribute more (54%) than droughts in humid regions. To CHDWD intensity, HDWs contribute more (53%–71%) than droughts in humid regions, and droughts contribute more (54%–83%) than HDWs in non-humid regions. These results are valuable for improving agricultural risk management and guiding the development of targeted adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 91-104"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ground surface temperature variations and their links to permafrost distribution in the Genhe River Basin, Da Xing'anling Mountain Range","authors":"De-Fu Zou ,&nbsp;Guo-Jie Hu ,&nbsp;Lin Zhao ,&nbsp;Xiao-Dong Wu ,&nbsp;Tong-Hua Wu ,&nbsp;Er-Ji Du ,&nbsp;Yao Xiao ,&nbsp;Guang-Yue Liu ,&nbsp;Yi-Fan Wu ,&nbsp;Xue-Ling Jiao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ground surface temperature (GST) fundamentally controls permafrost distribution in transitional zones, yet the link between GST variability and permafrost occurrence remains poorly understood, particularly in Northeast China where systematic field evidence is scarce. We selected the Genhe River Basin, a southern boundary of high-latitude permafrost regions in the Da Xing'anling Mountain Range as the study area. We used GST observations from 69 sites across diverse vegetation and terrain settings and analyzed spatial variability to determine thermal thresholds for permafrost occurrence. Four GST variables—mean annual GST (MAGST), GST amplitude (AAGST), thawing degree days (TDD), and freezing degree days (FDD)—exhibited strong spatial heterogeneity. Geographic gradients explained only part of this variation, whereas vegetation types exerted a stronger influence. Across the basin, MAGST ranged from −3.6 to 4.3 °C (mean 1.0 °C) and frost number (FN) averaged 0.47. Importantly, permafrost occurrence was concentrated in larch forests, wetlands, and shrublands, corresponding to MAGST thresholds of 0.4–0.7 °C and FN values of 0.48–0.49. Analysis of MAGST lapse rate suggested that continuous permafrost might exist at higher elevations, with lower limits around 800 m on north-facing and 980 m on south-facing slopes. These results refine regional thermal thresholds and reveal the role of vegetation and slope aspect in sustaining permafrost under relatively warm conditions. They also provide new empirical evidence to support refined mapping and model calibration in transitional permafrost zones.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1218-1228"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}