Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"The freezing‒thawing index and permafrost extent in pan-Arctic experienced rapid changes following the global warming hiatus","authors":"Hong-Xiang Guo ,&nbsp;Wen-Quan Zhu ,&nbsp;Cun-De Xiao ,&nbsp;Cen-Liang Zhao ,&nbsp;Li-Yuan Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global ground surface temperatures experienced a rapid increase following the end of the global warming hiatus in 2013. The rapid temperature increase has potential to drive changes in FDD/TDD and permafrost extent in pan-Arctic. In this study, the temporal and spatial trends of air freezing‒thawing index (AFDD/ATDD) and ground surface freezing‒thawing index (GFDD/GTDD) in pan-Arctic from 2003 to 2023 were analyzed, with a particular focus on the changes between the decades preceding and following 2013. The changes in permafrost extent were also analyzed. The results indicate that from 2003 to 2023, the AFDD and GFDD significantly (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) decreased at rates of 11.07 and 5.34 °C d per year, while the ATDD and GTDD significantly (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) increased at rates of 7.69 and 4.34 °C d per year, respectively. The FDD/TDD experienced rapid changes after the global warming hiatus, with the decreasing rates in AFDD and GFDD intensifying after 2013 to 15.75 °C d per year and 6.27 °C d per year, respectively, and increasing rates in ATDD and GTDD intensifying after 2013 to 15.88 °C d per year and 8.50 °C d per year, respectively. The permafrost area in pan-Arctic experienced a decline from 13.4 × 10⁶ km² in 2003–2013 to 12.51 × 10⁶ km² in 2014–2023, representing a decadal reduction of 0.78 × 10⁶ km² (6.64%). The rapid decadal reduction in permafrost extent surpassed the decadal changes projected by historical trend since 1901, despite a slight expansion in southern Canada. The results provide novel insights into recent changes in FDD/TDD and permafrost extent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 350-360"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High-altitude precipitation controls the mass balance of Pasu Glacier, Karakoram over 2000–2020: A case study based on mass and energy budget","authors":"Yu Zhu ,&nbsp;Shi-Yin Liu ,&nbsp;Ying Yi ,&nbsp;Li-De Tian ,&nbsp;Muhammad Ashraf ,&nbsp;Fu-Ming Xie ,&nbsp;Muhammad Saifullah ,&nbsp;Syed Hammad Ali ,&nbsp;Richard Grünwald","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Glaciers in the Karakoram exhibit stability or near-balanced mass changes, in stark contrast to the widespread glacier retreat observed globally. However, the limited availability of observational data, coupled with the lack of in-depth exploration of ablation physical mechanisms, has hindered a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving the anomalous behavior of these glaciers. This study employs an energy‒mass balance model, validated against observational data, and focuses on the representative Pasu Glacier to identify the key factors contributing to the near-balanced glacier mass budget observed over 2000–2020. The analysis revealed an average mass balance of −0.030 ± 0.247 m w.e. per year for Pasu Glacier in 2000–2020, with an average equilibrium line altitude of 4150 m. While snowfall was the primary determinant of mass balance for interannual and seasonal variations, turbulent heat exchange also played a significant role in the glacier's energy balance process. Through an analysis of altitude gradients and long-term variations in mass‒energy gain and loss and comparisons with other glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA), we concluded that 1) the balanced state of Pasu Glacier was largely attributed to the magnitude and extent of the accumulation of precipitation at high elevations, 2) reduced snowfall in highly accumulated areas (−0.79% per year), increasing melting intensity (0.026 m w.e. per year), and prolonged melting duration (∼24 d during 2000–2020) indicated a negative tendency of glacier mass budgets, and 3) Pasu Glacier exhibited similar characteristics of continental glaciers in terms of energy balance and polar continental glaciers in terms of mass gain, which have contributed to the stability of Pasu Glacier in 2000–2020. Our findings provide valuable insight into the dominant factors contributing to the balanced state of Pasu Glacier and can be applied to addressing other glacier changes in the Karakoram.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 240-256"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global glacier albedo trends over 2000–2022: Drivers and implications","authors":"Fei-Teng Wang ,&nbsp;Lin Wang ,&nbsp;Zhong-Qin Li ,&nbsp;Zhen-Cai DU ,&nbsp;Jing Ming","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the accelerated loss of global glacier mass in the 21st century, the dynamics governing glacier albedo and its role in this decline are not fully understood. Addressing this knowledge gap, this study investigates global glacier albedo trends, a critical but overlooked factor in the context of climate change. this investigation utilized the Randolph Glacier Inventory v7.0, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery, and ERA5-Land reanalysis data to decode the trends and drivers of glacier albedo from 2000 to 2022 on a global scale. We reported a general global albedo decline of 0.06% ± 0.04% (at 95% confidence level) per annum with regional deviations, predominantly driven by increases in surface air temperature across most regions, challenging the conclusions of earlier regional studies. Notably, in the Low Latitudes and South Asia East (SAE), as well as Antarctic and Subantarctic (AS) regions, aerosols (31% for SAE and 37% for AS) emerged as significant albedo influencers. Other factors, such as snowline migration, debris cover, glacier algae growth, and dust accumulation, are also known to influence glacier albedo but were not explicitly modeled in this study. These findings underscore the criticality of bespoke climate adaptation strategies, particularly addressing aerosol impacts, and reinforce the urgent need for a cohesive, global approach to glacier darkening and melt mitigation and protection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 324-336"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding water flowpaths and origins in an Arctic Alaskan basin: Implications for permafrost hydrology under global warming","authors":"Hyejung Jung ,&nbsp;Jinho Ahn ,&nbsp;Go Iwahana ,&nbsp;Jeonghoon Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming is progressing more rapidly in the Arctic compared with other regions of the world, and the increasing temperature has caused gradual permafrost thaw, resulting in significant changes in hydrological processes. However, the quantitative contributions of different water sources to Arctic watersheds under ongoing climate change remain poorly understood. Therefore, this study aims to address this gap by applying a water isotope-based mixing model to better quantify the sources and pathways of water flow in permafrost-affected catchments. In this study, isotopic and chemical data were used to determine the water sources and flowpaths of the Sagavanirktok (Sag) River on the North Slope in Alaska (USA) in the summer of 2022. Results obtained using a Bayesian mixing model indicate that meltwater from permafrost ice wedges contributes 17.7% upstream and 22.2% downstream to the Sag River. At the upstream with a frozen active layer or transient layer (including seasonal intrasediment ice), lower active layer water (mineral-rich) and upper active layer water (organic-rich) accounted for 31.5% and 18.1%, respectively. By contrast, at the downstream, the contribution of active layer water was 26.9%, which was similar to that of the other sources. The sources and flowpaths of Arctic freshwater affect changes in the geochemical characteristics of the freshwater, which is channeled to the Arctic Ocean through major Arctic rivers. This study quantitatively assesses permafrost ice wedge melt in an Arctic basin and provides insights to facilitate investigations of hydrological processes and geochemical changes associated with climate change in Arctic water systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 361-372"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution of supraglacial lakes over the pan-Antarctic ice sheet between 2014 and 2022: Assessment and the control factors","authors":"Xiao-Yi Shen ,&nbsp;Chang-Qing Ke ,&nbsp;Hai-Li Li ,&nbsp;Yu Cai ,&nbsp;Yao Xiao ,&nbsp;Meng-Meng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Widespread supraglacial lakes (SGLs) across the Antarctic surface can accelerate land ice flow and be linked to ice shelf disintegration, further affecting sea-level rise projections. However, previous studies usually focused on SGLs at regional scale or some typical ice shelves, and underestimated the distribution and area of SGLs. Thus, the current Antarctic-wide SGL distribution and variability information is still limited, and the present status and possible influence on ice shelf stability are also largely unknown. Here, we used more than 110,000 Landsat 8 images to detect SGLs across Antarctica (north of 83°S) in austral summer from 2014 to 2022 by using a well-constructed threshold-based method. Overall, most SGLs were located on ice shelves, covering 79% of the total area; the largest SGL areas were found in East Antarctica (79%, 2222 km²), far exceeding the SGL areas in Antarctic Peninsula (20%, 473 km²) and West Antarctica (1%, 23 km²). SGL area gains and declines were found in the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica, respectively, while East Antarctica experienced relatively high interannual variabilities due to the presence of some ice shelves with asynchronous variation patterns. Larger collapse risks are found for smaller ice shelves; ice shelves in East Antarctica are relatively unstable, and disintegration risk is increasing for some ice shelves in Antarctic Peninsula. Glaciological factors are closely related to the location of SGLs, and temperature, precipitation and winds are strongly linked to SGL evolution. This study is expected to enhance the reliability of existing Antarctic SGL dataset by providing a more comprehensive dataset, and offer detailed insights into the relationship between SGLs, climatic factors, and near-surface conditions. Additionally, it examines the risks of ice shelf collapse caused by SGLs, which is essential for understanding the SGL dynamics and their impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 337-349"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan","authors":"Muhammad Ramzan ,&nbsp;Peng Cui ,&nbsp;Daniya Ualiyeva ,&nbsp;Hamza Mukhtar ,&nbsp;Nazir Ahmed Bazai ,&nbsp;Muhammad Aslam Baig","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Landslides, which are aggravated by climate change, greatly threaten mountainous regions like northern Pakistan. However, existing research lacks a complete, region-specific analysis of the climatic and environmental factors driving landslides across various climatic zones, specifically in vulnerable areas such as northern Pakistan. This study explores the N-15 Highway in northern Pakistan. This region is frequently impacted by landslides induced by extreme climatic events, including heavy rainfall and flooding, which usually lead to blockages along the route. We collected a complete landslide inventory using 455 satellite images from 1990 to 2023 and ground surveys. We also analysed the relationship between landslides and climate change over the period of 1990–2023, encompassing soil moisture, vegetation, precipitation, temperature and snow cover. Using meteorological data, we found that the frequency of landslides rose exponentially from 1990 to 2023 due to the impacts of climate change. Especially after 2005, substantial increases in precipitation, temperature and snowmelt led to a more significant rise in landslide occurrences (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). In the warm season (April–October), 84.1% of the landslides occurred, which were mainly due to precipitation and snowmelt. Balakot, Babusar–Naran and Chilas were the primary areas along the highway, each with distinct landslide mechanisms. In the Balakot region, which is characterised by sub-tropical conditions, high precipitation played the leading role in landslide occurrences. Landslides at Babusar–Naran, which is known for Alpine conditions, were mostly driven by precipitation, soil moisture fluctuations and snowmelt dynamics. Geological reasons and high temperatures influenced the Chilas region, which is characterised by semi-arid conditions. The EC-Earth3 model from CMIP6 predicts a 1.6–6.5 °C warming and a 35% rise in precipitation by 2100, with more extreme variations under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These changes are likely to result in a rise in the frequency of landslides. We suggest improving ground observation networks and utilising multiple datasets to better understand the relationship between landslides and climatic variables, which enables highly accurate risk assessment and management in high-mountain areas under the warming climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 397-408"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the combined effect of China's restarting of the CCER market: Coupling of CGE and GAINS models","authors":"Yuan-Ying Chi ,&nbsp;Yang-Yi Zhang ,&nbsp;Bao-Liu Liu ,&nbsp;Meng-Wan Zhang ,&nbsp;Jia-Lin Li ,&nbsp;Guo-Zheng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China's relaunch of the Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) market is essential to the operation of the carbon emission trading market. Traditional single policy effect evaluation models cannot comprehensively reflect the economic and environmental impacts brought about by China's restart of the CCER market. To effectively assess the comprehensive policy effects of introducing the CCER into the carbon trading mechanism in the power industry, it is necessary to construct a coupled model for policy effect evaluation. Therefore, against the backdrop of China's restart of the CCER market and utilizing China's 2020 input–output table, we have developed a comprehensive assessment model. This model couples a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model with a greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies model to analyze the effects of introducing CCERs into the carbon trading mechanism in the power industry on the economy, energy, residents' welfare, and environmental health. Results show that restarting the CCER market leads to a gradual increase in the gap between the price of carbon allowances and the price of CCERs. Carbon trading and the CCER mechanism exert a considerable inhibiting effect on the growth of total energy consumption, and the proportion of nonfossil energy on the consumption side is forecasted to exceed 80% by 2060. In terms of residents' welfare, the introduction of CCERs into the carbon trading mechanism does not substantially improve the welfare level of residents but drastically reduces the level of residents' carbon emissions. Furthermore, this study confirms that CCER restart can successfully stimulate pollutant emission reduction and effectively reduce the number of attributable deaths, which in turn enhances health benefits. We also provide targeted recommendations for the restart of the CCER market regarding the proportion of CCER offsets, the structure of population consumption, and regional emission reduction policies to help facilitate the smooth operation of the carbon trading market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 433-445"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fragmentation of ground surface freezing processes in Northeast China from 1950 to 2022","authors":"Xi-Qiang Wang,&nbsp;Ren-Sheng Chen,&nbsp;Chun-Tan Han","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Current studies mainly employ the onset and end dates of freezing, freeze duration and freeze depth to describe the freeze state, often overlooking the discontinuous nature of the freezing process. In this study, the dynamics of the ground surface freezing processes in Northeast China (NEC) was systematically analysed using ERA5-Land reanalysis datasets from 1950 to 2022, and a new and fragmentation-focused perspective was adopted. The ground surface (0−7 cm in depth) temperature obtained from the ERA5-Land dataset performed well in detecting freeze days when compared with the observations (5 cm in depth) in NEC. From 1950 to 2022, the freezing processes in NEC became increasingly fragmented, with the number of freeze interruptions increasing at a rate of 0.04 times per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) and the freeze fragmentation degree rising at a rate of 0.07 times per 100 d per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01). Regional differences in the spatial and temporal variations of the freezing process fragmentation were also detected. Further analysis suggested that a significant increase (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) in the number of freeze–thaw cycle events and thaw days within the shortened freeze period (−1.8 d per decade; <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01) may partially increase the probability of freezing process fragmentation. Moreover, the freeze fragmentation degree was positively and significantly correlated with air and skin temperatures (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01), while it was negatively and significantly correlated with snow cover duration and volumetric soil moisture (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 373-380"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping of the susceptibility of China‒Russia crude oil pipelines to water damage in permafrost regions in Northeast China","authors":"Wen-Hui Wang ,&nbsp;Hui-Jun Jin ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Jin ,&nbsp;Zi-Kang Ming ,&nbsp;Xin-Yu Li ,&nbsp;Yan Li ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Li ,&nbsp;Tao Zhan ,&nbsp;Guang-Yin Xue ,&nbsp;Fu-Qiang Che ,&nbsp;Gang-Yi Zhou ,&nbsp;Wei Wang ,&nbsp;Valetin V. Spektor ,&nbsp;Nikita Tananaev ,&nbsp;Moisei Zakharov ,&nbsp;David-R. Şerban ,&nbsp;Hong-Wei Wang ,&nbsp;Ze Zhang ,&nbsp;Leonid Gagarin ,&nbsp;Guo-Yu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In permafrost regions, climate warming and extreme precipitation events, combined with rugged local terrains, pose considerable threats of water damage to buried crude oil pipelines. However, the susceptibility to water damage in these areas has received limited attention and research. Aiming to evaluate the susceptibility to water damage (STWD) of the China‒Russia Crude Oil Pipelines (CRCOPs) I and II, random forest (RF) algorithms, correlation analysis of influencing factors and on-site surveys were employed. The assessment, based on RF algorithms, field survey data from 2019 to 2022 and 14 geographically related factors, reveals that approximately 14.5% of the study area demonstrates high STWD, indicating a generally low risk of STWD across most segments of the CRCOPs. The pipeline segments between Wu’erqi–Jagdaqi and Jingsong–Xinlin display the highest STWD. Areas with high STWD typically experience ample precipitation, flow accumulation in flat, low-lying terrains, low surface roughness, over unconsolidated deposits and warm (&gt;−1 °C) Xing’an (hemiboreal) permafrost and proximity to rivers. This study not only enhances theoretical understanding of mitigating water damage to pipeline foundations in cold regions but also offers important technical insights for the sustainable operation of these lifeline infrastructures. Future research should focus on continuous monitoring of pipeline foundation soil safety, improving numerical models for pipeline river crossing evaluations and refining water damage risks assessment through deep learning-based models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 284-297"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of modified parameterizations in CLM5.0 on soil hydrothermal dynamics in permafrost regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau","authors":"Shu-Hua Yang ,&nbsp;Lin Zhao ,&nbsp;Guo-Jie Hu ,&nbsp;Jian-Jun Cao ,&nbsp;Qing Huang ,&nbsp;Tong-Hua Wu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Dong Wu ,&nbsp;Yu-Xin Zhang ,&nbsp;Yi-Zhen Du ,&nbsp;Dong-Liang Li ,&nbsp;Jian Chen ,&nbsp;Ren Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate understanding and modeling of soil hydrothermal dynamics in permafrost regions is essential for reliably assessing future permafrost changes and their impacts. However, the inadequate representation of soil water‒heat transport processes in current land surface models (LSMs) introduces large uncertainty in simulating permafrost dynamics, particularly on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). In this study, we modified the parameterizations of soil thermal conductivity, unfrozen water and soil evaporation resistance in version 5.0 of the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) and assessed their effects on soil hydrothermal dynamics in permafrost regions on the QTP using <em>in-situ</em> measurements at the depths of 10–40 cm. The results showed that soil temperature was more sensitive to the modified soil thermal conductivity and unfrozen water schemes, with average RMSE reduced by approximately 0.60 °C compared to the default CLM5.0. Soil moisture was mainly affected by the unfrozen water scheme during freezing and by the optimized soil evaporation resistance scheme during thawing, with maximum accuracy improvements of 8% and 25%, respectively. All three schemes significantly improved soil thermal conductivity simulations, reducing RMSE by over 80%. Overall, our modifications remarkably reduced simulation errors compared to the default schemes, improving the average accuracy of soil temperature, soil moisture and soil thermal conductivity by approximately 16%, 21% and 81% respectively. Additionally, this study emphasized the importance of accurately representing permafrost-related processes in LSMs, as they significantly affected simulation results. Specifically, soil thermodynamics is strongly sensitive to subtle changes in soil moisture transport processes, such as the hysteresis effect of unfrozen water content, and parameterizations of snowpack and vegetation. Therefore, future work should focus on enhancing the accurate representations of these processes and optimized parameters in LSMs to improve the simulation accuracy in permafrost regions on the QTP. This study enhanced the understanding of soil hydrothermal processes in LSMs and provided valuable insights for the future model development for permafrost regions under the context of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 213-229"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}