Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

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A multi-objective optimization approach for harnessing rainwater in changing climate 在不断变化的气候中利用雨水的多目标优化方法
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学
Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.006
Ling-Yu Meng , Zhan Tian , Dong-Li Fan , Frans H.M. van de Ven , Laixiang Sun , Qing-Hua Ye , San-Xiang Sun , Jun-Guo Liu , Laura Nougues , Daan Rooze
{"title":"A multi-objective optimization approach for harnessing rainwater in changing climate","authors":"Ling-Yu Meng ,&nbsp;Zhan Tian ,&nbsp;Dong-Li Fan ,&nbsp;Frans H.M. van de Ven ,&nbsp;Laixiang Sun ,&nbsp;Qing-Hua Ye ,&nbsp;San-Xiang Sun ,&nbsp;Jun-Guo Liu ,&nbsp;Laura Nougues ,&nbsp;Daan Rooze","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the world grapples with the profound impacts of climate change, water scarcity has become a pressing issue. However, there is a shortage of in-depth research on the trade-offs between water resource dependence and the economic, ecological, and social needs of arid and semi-arid regions like Lanzhou, China. Flower cultivation in Lanzhou relies heavily on the Yellow River, often overlooking the potential of natural rainfall. Here we first calibrated a water balance model through artificial precipitation experiments in a Soil and Water Conservation Demonstration Park in Lanzhou. We then developed a multi-objective optimization model to balance the cost-benefit considerations of various plausible measures across economic, ecological, and social dimensions in the searching for solutions that are more adaptable to climate change and local development needs. Model simulations show that the solutions we designed can effectively manage water-shortage days, significantly reduce Yellow River water extraction, and improve cost-effectiveness, meeting 66%–80% of water needs for flower cultivation in the studied park. The findings highlight the potential of rainwater collection and utilization solutions to mitigate water scarcity in arid and semi-arid cities, thereby enriching water resource management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 976-987"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Water budgets in an arid and alpine permafrost basin: Observations from the High Mountain Asia 干旱和高寒永久冻土盆地的水预算:来自亚洲高山的观测结果
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学
Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.005
Qing-Feng Wang , Hui-Jun Jin , Dong-Liang Luo , Yu Sheng , Jun Wen , Chien-Lu Ping , Mark H. Clark , Qiang Ma , Xiao-Ying Jin , Ji-Chun Wu , Yu-Zhong Yang , Qiang Li , Raul D. Şerban , Daqing Yang , Victor F. Bense , Qing-Bai Wu
{"title":"Water budgets in an arid and alpine permafrost basin: Observations from the High Mountain Asia","authors":"Qing-Feng Wang ,&nbsp;Hui-Jun Jin ,&nbsp;Dong-Liang Luo ,&nbsp;Yu Sheng ,&nbsp;Jun Wen ,&nbsp;Chien-Lu Ping ,&nbsp;Mark H. Clark ,&nbsp;Qiang Ma ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Jin ,&nbsp;Ji-Chun Wu ,&nbsp;Yu-Zhong Yang ,&nbsp;Qiang Li ,&nbsp;Raul D. Şerban ,&nbsp;Daqing Yang ,&nbsp;Victor F. Bense ,&nbsp;Qing-Bai Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ground freeze‒thaw processes have significant impacts on infiltration, runoff and evapotranspiration. However, there are still critical knowledge gaps in understanding of hydrological processes in permafrost regions, especially of the interactions among permafrost, ecology, and hydrology. In this study, an alpine permafrost basin on the northeastern Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau was selected to conduct hydrological and meteorological observations. We analyzed the annual variations in runoff, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and changes in water storage, as well as the mechanisms for runoff generation in the basin from May 2014 to December 2015. The annual flow curve in the basin exhibited peaks both in spring and autumn floods. The high ratio of evapotranspiration to annual precipitation (&gt;1.0) in the investigated wetland is mainly due to the considerably underestimated ‘observed’ precipitation caused by the wind-induced instrumental error and the neglect of snow sublimation. The stream flow from early May to late October probably came from the lateral discharge of subsurface flow in alpine wetlands. This study can provide data support and validation for hydrological model simulation and prediction, as well as water resource assessment, in the upper Yellow River Basin, especially for the headwater area. The results also provide case support for permafrost hydrology modeling in ungauged or poorly gauged watersheds in the High Mountain Asia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 830-844"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142698360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Turbulent heat fluxes in the North Water Polynya and ice estimated based on ASRv2 data and their impact on cloud 根据 ASRv2 数据估算的北水域波利尼亚和冰层的湍流热通量及其对云层的影响
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学
Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.004
Hai-Yi Ren , Mohammed Shokr , Tian-Yu Zhang , Zhi-Lun Zhang , Feng-Ming Hui , Xiao Cheng
{"title":"Turbulent heat fluxes in the North Water Polynya and ice estimated based on ASRv2 data and their impact on cloud","authors":"Hai-Yi Ren ,&nbsp;Mohammed Shokr ,&nbsp;Tian-Yu Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhi-Lun Zhang ,&nbsp;Feng-Ming Hui ,&nbsp;Xiao Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The presence or absence of sea ice introduces a substantial perturbation to surface‒atmosphere energy exchanges. Comprehending the effect of varying sea ice cover on surface‒atmosphere interactions is an important consideration for understanding the Arctic climate system. The recurring North Water Polynya (NOW) serves as a natural laboratory for isolating cloud responses to a rapid, near-step perturbation in sea ice. In this study, we employed high-resolution Arctic System Reanalysis version 2 (ASRv2) data to estimate turbulent heat fluxes over the NOW and nearby sea ice (NSI) area between 2005/2006 and 2015/2016. The results indicate that the average turbulent heat fluxes in the polynya are about 87% and 86% higher than in the NSI area over the 10 years during the entire duration of the polynya and during polar night, respectively. Enhanced turbulent heat fluxes from the polynya tend to produce more low-level clouds. The relationship between the polynya and low cloud in winter was examined based on Cloud‒Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). The low-cloud fraction (0–2 km) was about 7%–34% larger over the polynya than the NSI area, and the ice water content below 200 m was about 250%–413% higher over the former than the latter. The correlation between cloud fraction and turbulent heat fluxes in the polynya peaks around the altitude of 200–300 m. These results suggest that the NOW affects the Arctic boundary layer cloudiness and structure in wintertime. Furthermore, higher horizontal resolution reanalysis data can advance our understanding of the cloud-polynya response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 798-814"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142698361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analysis of fast ice anomalies and their causes in 2023 in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica 2023 年南极洲东部普里兹湾快速冰异常及其原因分析
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学
Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.002
Jun-Hao Liu , Xin-Qing Li , Shao-Yin Wang , Zi-Xin Wei , Feng-Ming Hui , Xiao Cheng
{"title":"Analysis of fast ice anomalies and their causes in 2023 in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica","authors":"Jun-Hao Liu ,&nbsp;Xin-Qing Li ,&nbsp;Shao-Yin Wang ,&nbsp;Zi-Xin Wei ,&nbsp;Feng-Ming Hui ,&nbsp;Xiao Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In 2023, Antarctica experienced its lowest sea ice extent in the satellite era, with extreme polar events gaining widespread attention. Prydz Bay, where the Chinese Zhongshan Station is located, is the third largest embayment in Antarctica. Changes in sea ice, fast ice and polynyas directly affect local heat and mass exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere, as well as ecosystems and research activities. In 2023, substantial fast ice anomalies were observed in Prydz Bay: the extent of fast ice off Zhongshan Station (ZSFI) was anomalously low, while that within Barrier Bay (BaFI) was anomalously high. This study analysed the seasonal evolution and underlying main causes for the extreme conditions using ice charts, satellites and reanalysis data. From 2014 to 2022, the extent of ZSFI typically increased during the cold season, reaching a maximum of (9.41 ± 2.47) × 10<sup>3</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, whilst the Barrier Bay Polynya (BaP) persisted throughout this period. However, in 2023, ZSFI did not increase from June onwards, peaking at a maximum extent of only 5.49 × 10<sup>3</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, and the BaP closed in mid-winter, leading to the formation of extensive BaFI. Air temperature and wind speed continuously dropped in July, and these conditions persisted for approximately 1 month, leading to the closure of BaP. However, ZSFI did not expand further under these extreme meteorological conditions, indicating its independence from these factors. The limited expansion of ZSFI could be attributed to high ocean temperatures. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the mechanisms driving extreme fast ice conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 784-797"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142698364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
National water use of coal-fired power generation: Hybrid life cycle assessment in China 全国燃煤发电用水量:中国的混合生命周期评估
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学
Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.001
Jia-Hai Yuan , Ke-Xin Peng , Hui-Ming Xu , Chang-Hong Zhao , Hao-Nan Zhang
{"title":"National water use of coal-fired power generation: Hybrid life cycle assessment in China","authors":"Jia-Hai Yuan ,&nbsp;Ke-Xin Peng ,&nbsp;Hui-Ming Xu ,&nbsp;Chang-Hong Zhao ,&nbsp;Hao-Nan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous studies of water use for coal-fired power generation may have overlooked inter-sectoral impacts in the supply chain. Indeed, to devise effective water conservation strategies during the ongoing energy transition, it is of utmost importance to analyze the sectoral water use structures and flows in the supply chain and identify the sources of water scarcity. Therefore, based on the power sector-split environmentally extended input‒output (EEIO) model and the life cycle assessment (LCA) idea, we comprehensively analyze the nexus between coal-fired power generation and water use from a sectoral perspective. Our findings reveal a complex and diverse water use structure in coal-fired power generation. The technology of production inherently determines the high intensity of water withdrawal, and the close intersectoral linkages, particularly with agriculture, construction, and some industrial sectors, in the production process result in an intricate web of indirect water withdrawal and blue water footprint (WF). Moreover, the grey WF, primarily sourced from coal mining and indirectly tied to tertiary industries, underscores critical areas for attention in water pollution management. Finally, water use in the coal-fired power sector is projected to remain at elevated levels in the short to medium term under various transition strategies. Following an in-depth exploration of the coal-fired power‒water use nexus, the findings can offer new perspectives and specific entry points for sustainable energy development and water resource management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 948-962"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Scientific land greening under climate change: Theory, modeling, and challenges 气候变化下的科学土地绿化:理论、建模与挑战
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学
Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.003
Jia-Na Chen , Zai-Chun Zhu , Sen Cao , Peng-Jun Zhao , Pei Liu , Da-Jing Li , Wei-Min Wang , Yue Chen
{"title":"Scientific land greening under climate change: Theory, modeling, and challenges","authors":"Jia-Na Chen ,&nbsp;Zai-Chun Zhu ,&nbsp;Sen Cao ,&nbsp;Peng-Jun Zhao ,&nbsp;Pei Liu ,&nbsp;Da-Jing Li ,&nbsp;Wei-Min Wang ,&nbsp;Yue Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Anthropogenic land greening is a vital strategy to combat the global warming crisis. However, the changing external environment and endowment factors may constrain the effectiveness of land greening. It remains unclear how to quantify and optimize land greening strategies scientifically. This article reviewed the theoretical foundations of land greening, pointing out that climate governance and human settlement quality improvement have gradually become the two core objectives of land greening since the 20th century. Multi-source and multi-scale experimental and observational surveys are important techniques for detecting and evaluating long-term land greening in the context of climate change, especially by forming experimental and observational networks. The theoretical mechanisms of interactions among climate, humans, and vegetation were also explored. For modeling approaches, hybrid modeling based on Earth system coupling theory may be the most promising but challenging approach. Four main challenges of scientific land greening were also discussed, including knowledge gaps related to land greening mechanisms, unclear multifaceted effects of land greening, lack of forward-looking quantitative assessment, and difficulties in evaluating synergies and trade-offs among assessment targets. Based on these, a strategic framework was proposed, including systematic observation, mechanism research, expectation assessment, and scientific planning for scientific greening programs in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area. This review underscored the importance of proactively implementing land greening programs and provided guidelines for scientific greening based on cutting-edge theory and methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 894-913"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Land–atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climate 在气候变暖的情况下,陆地-大气反馈削弱了澳大利亚极端降水的风险
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学
Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.005
Mei-Yu Chang , Zhi-Yan Zuo , Liang Qiao , Kai-Wen Zhang , Bo Liu
{"title":"Land–atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climate","authors":"Mei-Yu Chang ,&nbsp;Zhi-Yan Zuo ,&nbsp;Liang Qiao ,&nbsp;Kai-Wen Zhang ,&nbsp;Bo Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The importance of land–atmosphere feedbacks on regional precipitation changes has been recently noted. However, how land–atmosphere feedbacks shape daily precipitation distributions, particularly the tails of precipitation distributions associated with extreme events, remains unclear on a regional scale. Herein, using the latest land–atmosphere coupling experiments, this study reveals a consistent weakening effect of land–atmosphere feedbacks on the future increase in precipitation extremes over Australia, revealing the most pronounced reduction (56.8%) for the long-term (2080–2099) projection under the low emission (SSP1-2.6) scenario. This weakening effect holds true for shifts in the extreme tail of precipitation distribution, resulting in a reduced risk of precipitation extremes in a warming climate. Land‒atmosphere feedbacks offset 28%–60% of the occurrence risk for the 99th percentile of daily precipitation, with the largest reduction of 172% when precipitation exceeds the 99.7th percentile in the long-term projection under the high emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario. Considering less water replenishment, these feedbacks may reduce the risk of flooding but potentially expedite droughts, highlighting the role of land–atmosphere feedbacks in extreme event projection and regional climate adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 859-868"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of extreme seasonal drought on ecosystem carbon‒water coupling across China 极端季节性干旱对中国各地生态系统碳-水耦合的影响
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学
Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.001
Meng-Tian Huang, Pan-Mao Zhai
{"title":"Impact of extreme seasonal drought on ecosystem carbon‒water coupling across China","authors":"Meng-Tian Huang,&nbsp;Pan-Mao Zhai","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Water use efficiency (WUE) is a critical evaluation indicator of ecosystem responses to climate change and its extremes. However, the influence of the timing of extreme drought on the variation of ecosystem WUE under severe water stress has not been studied extensively. In particular, the modulation of drought impacts on WUE under regional hydro-climatic conditions and biome types is poorly understood. Considering observation-based ecosystem flux and drought index datasets, this study examined the impact of extreme seasonal drought on WUE in China and attempted to reveal the underlying drivers of seasonal variations in drought impacts. Results showed that the direction and magnitude of drought impacts on WUE depend on the occurrence time of extreme drought and the seasonal dynamics of regional ecological and climatic conditions. Across the vegetated regions in China, the most widespread reduction in WUE under extreme drought conditions was observed in summer, whereas approximately 60% of the study area showed positive changes in WUE under extreme drought conditions in spring. Furthermore, the co-regulation of drought characteristics and background environmental conditions in determining the impacts of extreme seasonal drought on ecosystem WUE is highlighted. Classification and regression tree analysis results illustrate that leaf area index (LAI) and drought timing dominated ecosystem WUE variation in response to extreme drought in China. Regions with lower LAI experienced more serious reductions in WUE under extreme drought. These findings indicate the importance of accounting for the interaction between drought seasonality and biome features in assessing drought impacts, thus contributing to improving the modelling of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate extremes under global warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 914-923"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Combined impacts of aerosols and urbanization on a highly threatened extreme precipitation event in Beijing, China 气溶胶和城市化对中国北京极具威胁的极端降水事件的综合影响
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学
Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.006
Tai-Chen Feng , Tian-Gang Yuan , Zhi-Yuan Hu , Tie-Jun Xie , Shen Lai , Wen-Jie Dong , Jian-Ping Huang
{"title":"Combined impacts of aerosols and urbanization on a highly threatened extreme precipitation event in Beijing, China","authors":"Tai-Chen Feng ,&nbsp;Tian-Gang Yuan ,&nbsp;Zhi-Yuan Hu ,&nbsp;Tie-Jun Xie ,&nbsp;Shen Lai ,&nbsp;Wen-Jie Dong ,&nbsp;Jian-Ping Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>On July 21, 2012, a catastrophic precipitation event occurred in Beijing, highlighting the serious threat of extreme precipitation on socio-economic development and human health under climate change. Nevertheless, whether, how and to what extent aerosols and urbanization, as the two main influencing factors of urban extreme precipitation, have affected this highly damaging extreme event remains largely unexplored. Here, we employed the weather research and forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) and a single-layer urban canopy model to investigate the influences of urbanization, aerosols and their interactions on this extreme precipitation event. We found that the joint intensification effects of urbanization and aerosols on extreme precipitation events greatly enhance its negative influence on megacities. The results indicate that aerosols are enhanced by increasing cloud droplet numbers, thereby intensifying the feedback between precipitation and latent heating. Consequently, the total precipitation increased by 22.6%, raising the precipitation in the Beijing area increase by at least 50 mm. By stimulating atmospheric instability and strengthening vertical air motion (over 0.25 m s<sup>−1</sup>), the urban heat island effect considerably influences the temporal and spatial distributions of extreme precipitation events, resulting in an increase in warm cloud precipitation (80%) and a decrease (30%) in frontal precipitation. Consequently, joint intensification effects resulted in more concentrated precipitation in the southwest of Beijing, leading to a substantial increase (more than 40%, ∼80 mm). This condition may be an important reason for the most severe disasters in the southwest of Beijing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 883-893"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Relative contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic components on Southeast Asia future precipitation changes from different multi-GCM ensemble members 不同多重 GCM 集合对东南亚未来降水量变化的动力和热动力成分的相对贡献
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学
Advances in Climate Change Research Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.007
Sheau Tieh Ngai , Srivatsan V. Raghavan , Jing Xiang Chung , Bhenjamin Jordan Ona , Lucian Taft Kimbrell , Ngoc Son Nguyen , Thanh-Hung Nguyen , Senfeng Liu
{"title":"Relative contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic components on Southeast Asia future precipitation changes from different multi-GCM ensemble members","authors":"Sheau Tieh Ngai ,&nbsp;Srivatsan V. Raghavan ,&nbsp;Jing Xiang Chung ,&nbsp;Bhenjamin Jordan Ona ,&nbsp;Lucian Taft Kimbrell ,&nbsp;Ngoc Son Nguyen ,&nbsp;Thanh-Hung Nguyen ,&nbsp;Senfeng Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To address the gap in understanding precipitation changes in Southeast Asia and to enhance the reliability of climate projections for the region through moisture budget analysis, this study examines the differences among six multi-model ensembles of CMIP6 simulated precipitation in term of moisture budget analysis. It investigates the relative contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic components to seasonal precipitation changes over Southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario, SSP5-8.5. The comparison between ensembles indicates that Good performance model ensembles slightly outperform the combination of all resolution and all category ensembles in reducing the biases. There is no strong evidence showing that good category ensembles outperform the combination of all model ensemble groups in simulating the spatial pattern of historical seasonal precipitation. From the perspective of moisture budget, regions receiving seasonal high rainfall intensity are mainly influenced by the moisture convergence during the monsoon seasons: northeast monsoon (December‒January‒February) and southwest monsoon (June–July–August). By the late 21st century (2081–2100), all model ensemble projections show an increase in December‒January‒February precipitation over the northern Southeast Asia and decreased June‒July‒August rainfall in the southern regions. The moisture budget analysis explained that the seasonal mean rainfall change in Southeast Asia is largely influenced by evaporation and followed by moisture flux convergence. The changes in moisture flux convergence are contributed by both the dynamic and thermodynamic components. Greater inter-model uncertainty was found in the precipitation dynamic component compared to the thermodynamic component suggesting the existence of large discrepancy between the various approaches used by GCMs in describing atmospheric dynamics. The study highlights that the Good model ensemble with middle to low resolution is able to narrow the inter-model uncertainties in terms of the moisture budget analysis compared to the combination of all Good model ensembles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 869-882"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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