Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Autumn snow expansion and spring divergence in Northeast China (2000–2020)","authors":"Yao Xiao ,&nbsp;Guo-Jie Hu ,&nbsp;Ren Li ,&nbsp;Tong-Hua Wu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Dong Wu ,&nbsp;Guang-Yue Liu ,&nbsp;De-Fu Zou ,&nbsp;Ji-Min Yao ,&nbsp;Nan Zhou ,&nbsp;Lin Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mid-latitude snow has broadly declined, but Northeast China (NEC) shows a seasonal divergence that remains insufficiently explained. We integrated a cloud-free 500 m MODIS snow-phenology record with passive-microwave snow depth for 2000–2020 to map changes and diagnose drivers. We quantified controls using Random Forest with SHAP and structural equation modeling. Autumn snow cover duration expanded in northern NEC, with rates up to 12 d per decade around 47°–50°N, consistent with localized cooling (−0.1 to −0.2 °C per decade) and greater precipitation. In spring, responses diverged: the Greater Khingan Mountains experienced accelerated melt under 0.3–0.9 °C per decade warming, whereas parts of the Songliao Plain retained snow longer. Temperature dominated variability, while precipitation, vegetation, and elevation showed seasonally asymmetric and terrain-dependent effects. These findings highlight overlooked regimes in transitional mid-latitudes: autumn expansion driven by early-season cooling and moisture supply versus spring divergence shaped by warming and terrain. The driver diagnostics provide process-oriented evidence for improving parameterizations of shallow, short-lived snow and elevation-dependent melt in regional climate and hydrological models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 105-116"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How vegetation greening mitigates climate-driven aridification in mid-latitude Asia","authors":"Xiao-Jing Jia ,&nbsp;Qian-Jia Xie ,&nbsp;Wei Dong ,&nbsp;Qi-Feng Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mid-latitude Asia, one of the world’s most extensive arid zones, exhibits heightened vulnerability to climate change, manifesting in pronounced surface warming and spatially heterogeneous drought patterns. While the central-western sector has experienced intensified aridification, the southeastern regions have maintained relatively stable conditions—a disparity whose mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. This study utilizes observational analysis and numerical modeling to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics and drivers of drought variability across mid-latitude Asia from 1982 to 2018, focusing on investigating the impacts of climate change and vegetation dynamics. Our findings reveal that the intensified Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) trend in central–western mid-latitude Asia (Xinjiang: −0.016 per year, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05; Mongolia: −0.017 per year, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) can be attributed to rising surface temperatures and declining precipitation, mediated by a persistent high-pressure anomaly over the northwestern Mongolian Plateau. This high-pressure system reduces cloud cover, increases net radiation, enhances evaporation, and suppresses water vapor transport. These conditions contribute to elevated temperatures and decreased precipitation, exacerbating drought severity. In contrast, the southeastern region benefits from weaker climatic anomalies under global warming and more pronounced vegetation greening trend (North China: 0.15 per year, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05; Northeast China: 0.08 per year, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05), which mitigates drought through hydrological processes and land‒atmosphere interactions. The enhanced evapotranspiration related to greening lowers the surface temperature, thereby creating an atmospheric cold source that feedbacks into land and water cycles. These findings reveal a biogeophysical dichotomy in drought responses across mid-latitude Asia, advancing mechanistic understanding of dryland ecosystem resilience in the context of global warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 163-174"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expansion and outburst process of Aksu Kule Lake in the Kunlun Mountains, Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau","authors":"Peng Gong ,&nbsp;Chang-Wei Xie ,&nbsp;Tong-Hua Wu ,&nbsp;Wu Wang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Fan Zhu ,&nbsp;Jie Chen ,&nbsp;Wen-Hui Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid lake expansion and sudden outburst events have emerged as critical hydrological phenomena on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), reshaping endorheic basins and threatening downstream ecosystems and communities. However, the mechanisms and impacts of large endorheic lake failures remain poorly understood, as most studies have focused on glacial lake outbursts. The catastrophic outburst of Aksu Kule Lake (AKL) in the Kunlun Mountains in September 2024 provided a rare opportunity to investigate how prolonged hydrological accumulation in endorheic lakes on the QTP under climate change can trigger basin reorganization and flood disasters. In this study, multisource optical remote sensing data were integrated with ICESat and CryoSat-2 satellite altimetry data to systematically assess changes in lake surface area and water level and to examine the underlying mechanisms driving rapid expansion and eventual catastrophic outbursts. The rapid expansion and subsequent outburst of AKL were driven primarily by increased precipitation, especially extreme short-term events in 2010 and 2016. These events contributed approximately 1.5 × 10⁷ m³ and 7.4 × 10⁷ m³ of additional lake water, respectively, accounting for 13.85% and 68.08%, respectively, of the total increase in net volume from 2009 to 2023. The final outburst was initiated by overtopping and subsequent erosion of unconsolidated alluvial fan sediments at the lake outlet, rather than by the structural failure of a natural dam, underscoring the inherent vulnerability of alluvial-dammed lakes. Following the AKL outburst, the Endere River Basin expanded by 81.4%, and the original hydrological regulation capacity of the lake was compromised, potentially resulting in an increased frequency and magnitude of floods in this basin. These findings enhance understanding of rapid lake expansion and outburst mechanisms and provide a scientific basis for early-warning systems and adaptive water management strategies in endorheic basins of the QTP under climate warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 139-151"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing extreme heat events in the permafrost region of the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Hai-Peng Feng ,&nbsp;Bo Su ,&nbsp;Jian-Ping Duan ,&nbsp;Hong-Yu Zhao ,&nbsp;Tong Zhang ,&nbsp;Cun-De Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intensification of extreme heat events is a potent thermal disturbance that can trigger abrupt permafrost degradation. However, a systematic understanding of their spatiotemporal variation across the permafrost region of the Northern Hemisphere (PRONH) is lacking, hindering predictions of regional-scale responses and climate feedback tipping points. In this study, six indices are systematically employed to analyse the historical spatiotemporal variations (1991–2020) of extreme heat events in the PRONH and to project their future changes (2021–2100) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), particularly across four permafrost types. The results indicate that the increasing trends of warm day (TA95p; 2.95 ± 0.56 d per decade), warmer day (TX95p; 3.20 ± 0.59 d per decade), warmest day (TXx; 0.35 ± 0.12 °C per decade), heatwave intensity (2.67 ± 0.96 °C per decade), heatwave frequency (0.23 ± 0.05 events per decade) and heatwave duration (0.54 ± 0.44 d per decade) were significant (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) during 1991–2020. Under SSP5-8.5, the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau are projected to experience 150–200 d TX95p annually, making such events routine by the late 21st century (2076–2100). Under the same scenario, continuous permafrost regions are projected to face the most severe exposure, with TX95p reaching 148 ± 24 d annually, whereas the discontinuous (134 ± 23 d), sporadic (130 ± 22 d) and isolated (109 ± 19 d) permafrost regions are expected to experience fewer extreme heat events. However, their fragmented distributions render them particularly vulnerable and heighten the risk of degradation. This study underscores the urgent need to integrate these extreme heat events into permafrost vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 25-34"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is the cloud absorption of solar radiation still underestimated notably by current model-based reanalyses?","authors":"You-Jing Fu ,&nbsp;Guang-Hui Huang ,&nbsp;Zi-Yan Huang ,&nbsp;Xu-Feng Wang ,&nbsp;Han Ma ,&nbsp;Guo-Jiang Wang ,&nbsp;Chun-Lin Huang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Hua Hao ,&nbsp;Peng-Fei Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cloud absorption of solar radiation strongly influences Earth’s radiation balance and climate change. Whether numerical models underestimate this absorption compared with observations has long been a highly debated issue in cloud–radiation research. Using state-of-the-art model-derived reanalyses, NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF ERA5, and NASA MERRA2, and the latest collocated satellite-surface observation in 2012–2023, we reinvestigate this controversial issue. The results demonstrate the observed cloud absorption of solar radiation still notably exceeds the modeled (regardless of model products), but their discrepancy has dropped a lot, particularly for NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF ERA5. While a further investigation is needed, the reduced discrepancy may reflect the progress of shortwave radiation schemes in models, notably the integration of Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for General Circulation Models (RRTMG) and the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA). Additionally, it is noteworthy that there is not a perfect approach to obtaining the observed cloud absorption, and particularly the water vapor difference between clear and cloudy skies will often result in its unrealistic overestimation. If the impact from the water vapor difference is corrected, NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF ERA5, and NASA MERRA2 underestimate globally-mean cloud absorption by approximately 8.26, 14.50 and 16.51 W/m², respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 12-24"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional disparities in extreme precipitation trends across East Asia: Observation-constrained projection and attribution","authors":"Zhong-Rui Bao ,&nbsp;Yong-Kun Xie ,&nbsp;Jin-Sen Shi ,&nbsp;Min Zhao ,&nbsp;Jia-Qin Mi","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme precipitation events pose growing risks across East Asia. Although various studies have examined the historical and future changes of extreme precipitation, substantial uncertainties in magnitudes and signs remain regarding future trends at the regional scale. Combining CMIP6 simulations with observations, we analyze historical changes and project more robust future extreme precipitation trends across four subregions. During 1979–2014, heavy precipitation cumulative intensity (HPCI) increased by 10.7 mm per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) in humid region and 12.2 mm per decade in the southern Tibetan Plateau, while it slightly increased (+0.1 mm per decade) in Northeast Asia and decreased (−0.1 mm per decade) in dryland. Although model simulations project increased HPCI across all subregions during 2015–2100, observation-constrained projections refine these projections, revealing more realistic and regionally divergent futures. Under SSP2-4.5, HPCI increases by 64% in the humid region and 119% in the southern Tibetan Plateau, respectively, by the end of the 21st century, with the magnitudes doubled under SSP5-8.5. Dryland shows moderate increases (35% under SSP2-4.5 and 26% under SSP5-8.5), whereas Northeast Asia declines slightly (−13% and −2%, respectively). Greenhouse gas emissions fuel the intensification of heavy rainfall in the humid region by elevating atmospheric humidity and altering large-scale circulation. Meanwhile, on the southern Tibetan Plateau, the increase in extreme precipitation is driven by greenhouse gases—through enhanced moisture delivery from the Bay of Bengal and upward motion—as well as by aerosol reduction, which modifies humidity and circulation. Our observation-constrained projections, coupled with mechanistic insights, yield more robust results than unconstrained ones—providing critical scientific support for climate-adaptive flood control and water management across East Asia's diverse regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 35-47"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergistic reductions of CO2 and aerosols: Navigating mid-term warming risks for 2 °C climate futures","authors":"Lei Jin ,&nbsp;Yi-Xiong Lu ,&nbsp;Wei Hua ,&nbsp;Jun-Ting Zhong ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ye Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhi-Li Wang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ge Xin ,&nbsp;Jie Zhang ,&nbsp;Tong-Wen Wu ,&nbsp;De-Ying Wang ,&nbsp;Da Zhang ,&nbsp;Tian-Peng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving the 2 °C climate target requires the coordination of strategies for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants mitigation, yet their complex interactions remain insufficiently explored. BCC-ESM1 Earth system model is employed to compare global climate responses under the novel SSP2-com scenario, in which both GHGs and aerosols undergo reduction, with that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Moreover, the relative contributions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and black carbon (BC) to future temperature increases are analyzed. Results reveal that compared with the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the SSP2-com scenario can stabilize the end-21st-century temperature rise well below 2 °C, primarily driven by the reduction of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. A mid-term warming rebound between 2061 and 2080 is observed due to reduced aerosol cooling. SO₂ reductions result in a weakening aerosol-induced radiative forcing, driving regional warming asymmetries—particularly in northern high latitudes (up to +1.5 °C in winter). Compared to CO₂-only mitigation, experiments involving SO₂ reductions also exhibit stronger global precipitation increases, suggesting an acceleration of the hydrological cycle under lower aerosol loading. Energy budget analysis further indicates that SO₂ mitigation results in an increase in net shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere by approximately 0.23 W/m² during the mid-term (2061–2080), and consequently leads to an accumulated surface energy gain of about 0.15 W/m². These findings highlight a key trade-off: aerosol mitigation may induce mid-term warming, but remains essential for achieving air quality and climate goals. This work underscores the necessity of balancing mid-term climate–air quality trade-offs with long-term decarbonization, offering actionable insights for policymakers to design integrated pathways align with the Paris Agreement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contrasting biophysical impacts of vegetation growth and type transition greening on local temperature in Southwestern China","authors":"Na Dong ,&nbsp;Zhen Liu ,&nbsp;Ru Xu ,&nbsp;Hua-Bing Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is a noticeable greening trend observed in China over the first two decades of the 21st century attributed to both vegetation growth and type transition. However, the comparative impacts of these two greening on local climate and their associated biophysical mechanism have not been well appreciated, which is essential and beneficial for the development of regional ecological programs and climate mitigation. This study disentangles the influences of vegetation growth and type transitions on land surface temperature (LST) in southwestern China, employing a space-for-time approach utilizing satellite images from 2002–2022. Findings indicate that type transitions yield a more pronounced LST cooling, reaching 2–3 times that of vegetation growth. Leaf area index (LAI) induced cooling is the highest in cropland to grassland transition, with a remarkable decrease of −0.058 ± 0.049 K, while the greatest cooling in vegetation growth is in grassland growth, achieving −0.031 ± 0.033 K. The highest LST sensitivity for type transitions is in Guangxi at −1.49 ± 0.52 K, whereas for vegetation growth is in Guizhou at −1.11 ± 0.28 K. Both types of greening exhibit cooling impacts predominantly driven by evapotranspiration, offsetting the albedo warming effect. Additionally, both albedo and LST sensitivities gradually decay with the increasing of greening degree to higher LAI saturation. This highlights both vegetation growth and type transitions contribute to local cooling with different intensity and effectiveness across vegetation types and regions. It is critical to consider their distinctions comprehensively and individually when formulating regional ecological programs and climate mitigation measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 175-188"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on the concept and framework of synergy between mitigation and adaptation","authors":"Hong-Shuo Yan ,&nbsp;Xian-Chun Tan ,&nbsp;Yong-Long Cheng ,&nbsp;Kai-Wei Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon neutrality and the Global Goal on Adaptation jointly drive the integration of mitigation and adaptation; however, a clear conceptual and analytical framework for their synergy remains absent. This study first examines the components of mitigation and adaptation, and analyzes the mechanisms through which they interact. It then explores the fundamental principles underlying the synergy between mitigation and adaptation, and construct a corresponding analytical framework. It emphasizes that mitigation and adaptation are mutually influential, providing a foundation for achieving synergy. Furthermore, synergy should be promoted in the five aspects of objectives, regions, sectors, pathways, and policies—and follows the logic of Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR). Based on this, an analytical framework is developed to clarify the interactive relationship between mitigation and adaptation at regional and sectoral levels, while integrating multiple methodologies including scenario analysis, climate models, and policy evaluation. This framework provides a basic process and conceptual model, overcoming the present lack of systematic quantitative assessment methods. In the future, it will be necessary to identify critical regions or sectors and corresponding pathway measures, develop and apply quantitative methodologies, and explore how to build a synergistic policy system that supports both mitigation and adaptation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 189-198"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comprehensive evaluation of multi-source reanalysis datasets for surface atmospheric parameters over the Greenland Ice Sheet","authors":"Zhi-Min Chen ,&nbsp;Zhao-Liang Zeng ,&nbsp;Ming-Hu Ding ,&nbsp;Ya-Qiang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate. <em>In situ</em> observations are sparse due to its harsh environment, making reanalysis datasets an essential alternative. However, their accuracy over Greenland—particularly in high-altitude and inland regions—remains uncertain, necessitating a systematic evaluation. In this study, we comprehensively evaluate four major reanalysis products—ERA5, ERA5-Land, MERRA-2 and NCEP/DOE R2—using observational data from 51 automatic weather stations across the Greenland Ice Sheet. We analyse accuracy in five key atmospheric variables (2 m air temperature, surface pressure, 10 m wind speed, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation) across three temporal resolutions: monthly, daily and hourly. The results show that over the evaluation period (2018–2022), ERA5 and MERRA-2 consistently outperform the other considered products. ERA5 performs the best in temperature and pressure, with monthly temperature and pressure biases below 2.5 °C and 6 hPa, respectively, and strong consistency across time scales; at the same time, MERRA-2 exhibits the best accuracy in shortwave radiation in certain seasons, with hourly downwelling shortwave radiation correlation coefficients exceeding 0.92 in all four seasons, mainly because its aerosol and radiation processes better capture seasonal variability in atmospheric clarity and solar energy reaching the surface. ERA5-Land, despite its finer resolution, systematically underestimates summer shortwave radiation levels and features inconsistent wind speed accuracy. NCEP/DOE R2 shows pronounced errors across all variables and is not recommended for use in modern climate studies. Spatial analyses further reveal that the considered reanalysis products show the best accuracy along the coast and lower accuracy in the high-elevation interior. These findings offer essential guidance for the selection of suitable reanalysis products in climate and surface mass balance studies on Greenland.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 1","pages":"Pages 48-64"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147387304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}