Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Geographic trends in asthma risk among children and adolescents across climate zones in Australia, 2004–2018","authors":"Jialu Wang ,&nbsp;Javier Cortes-Ramirez ,&nbsp;Wenbiao Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the known regional variations in childhood and adolescent asthma prevalence across Australia, the complex interactions between geographic location, climate diversity, and asthma risk patterns remain critically underexplored. This study examined spatial patterns of asthma prevalence among children and adolescents (2004–2018) by analysing data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, categorized according to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system, which integrates environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation patterns to represent broader climatic conditions. We employed spatial clustering, survey-weighted logistic regression, and classification and regression tree analysis to identify region-specific risk factors. Results revealed distinct spatial patterns with ‘high-high’ clusters concentrated in southeastern Australia’s BSk (arid, steppe, cold), Cfa (temperate, no dry season, hot summer), and Cfb (temperate, no dry season, warm summer) climate. Male children (odds ratio (OR): 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06–1.52) with maternal depression (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.16–1.69) and a parental asthma history (OR: 2.96; 95% CI: 2.58–3.41) showed significantly elevated risk, while breastfeeding beyond six months corresponded with reduced risk (OR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.62–0.86). ‘Low-low’ clusters were observed in the Cfa zone. Risk factor importance varied by climate zone, with breastfeeding duration being most notable in the Aw (tropical, savannah) zone and age 2 emerging as a key threshold in several zones. These findings enable more precise identification of high-risk populations and climate-sensitive regions, supporting the development of targeted preventive strategies and climate-based early warning systems that will enhance asthma management effectiveness and reduce healthcare burdens across Australia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 613-622"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An integrated modelling framework for evaluating the synergistic impacts of low-carbon transitions and air pollution controls on air quality and health in Guangzhou, China","authors":"Yun Shu ,&nbsp;Yang Li ,&nbsp;Yazhen Wu ,&nbsp;Xiang-Zhao Feng ,&nbsp;Sha-Sha Xu ,&nbsp;Ya-Li Wang ,&nbsp;Tong Ma ,&nbsp;Jian-Hua Chen ,&nbsp;Jian Gao ,&nbsp;Shaohui Zhang ,&nbsp;Ji-Zhang Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate policies that target carbon emissions can induce co-benefits for air quality. Previous urban studies have typically focused on either carbon reduction or air pollution control independently, but few have examined their combined effects on reducing carbon emissions and consequential environmental gains. We develop an integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of different low-carbon transitions and end-of-pipe controls on PM_2.5 and ozone concentrations and associated premature mortality in the megacity of Guangzhou. The results show that the implementation of both deep carbon mitigation and aggressive air pollution control policies can reduce the city's pollutant emissions to 34%–51% of the 2020 levels by 2035. Consequently, the population-weighted PM_2.5 concentration in 2035 is projected to decrease by 5 μg/m³ compared to the 2035 baseline scenario. However, the ozone concentration is expected to rise by 35 μg/m³ due to the reduced titration effect of NO on ozone. These changes are estimated to prevent approximately 3.0 thousand (95% CI: 2.0–3.9) PM_2.5-related premature deaths, while increasing ozone-related premature deaths by approximately 1.6 thousand (95% CI: 0.7–2.7). Moreover, implementing multiregional integrated control measures in Guangzhou and its neighbouring cities yields greater air quality and health benefits for Guangzhou compared to local enforcement alone, resulting in 1.5 times more avoided PM_2.5-related premature deaths. Additionally, the increase in ozone-related premature deaths from these cooperative emission control strategies is merely 0.3 times the figure observed under local enforcement alone. The transport and industry sectors play a crucial role in reducing air pollutant emissions, whereas reductions in the solvent use sector can help mitigate the adverse effects of reduced NO_x on ozone pollution. These findings highlight the need for comprehensively multiregional strategies to balance the trade-offs between reducing PM_2.5 and ozone-related health impacts, offering valuable insights for urban policy makers aiming to optimize both climate and air quality goals on a broader scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 636-650"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recent warming trends in Antarctica revealed by multiple reanalysis","authors":"Sai Wang ,&nbsp;Guan-Cheng Li ,&nbsp;Zi-Huan Zhang ,&nbsp;Wen-Qian Zhang ,&nbsp;Xin Wang ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen ,&nbsp;Wen Chen ,&nbsp;Ming-Hu Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The lack of long-term <em>in-situ</em> observations hampers our ability to fully understand climate change in Antarctica. State-of-the-art reanalysis datasets fill a critical gap, and this study utilizes the ensemble mean from five reanalysis datasets to examine temperature changes and their associated mechanisms in Antarctica. The findings reveal that the entire Antarctic continent has experienced significant warming from 1980 to 2023, with a statistically significant warming rate of 0.12 °C per decade at the 0.05 level. Further analysis suggests that the warming in Antarctica is primarily driven by thermodynamic processes, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.22 °C per decade. In contrast, dynamic processes have caused an overall cooling of the Antarctic continent at a rate of −0.10 °C per decade, partially offsetting the effects of thermodynamic processes. Additionally, the ensemble mean confirms a notable shift in temperature trends in the early 2000s. Finally, the study shows that in East Antarctica, dynamic processes primarily drive the shift in temperature trends, while in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, thermodynamic processes are the main contributors. This research offers valuable insights into the complexities and mechanisms of climate change in Antarctica, emphasizing the importance of accurate predictions for future changes in this critical region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 447-459"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global prevalence of compound heatwaves from 1980 to 2022","authors":"Kun Zhang ,&nbsp;Jin-Bao Li ,&nbsp;Michael Kwok-Po Ng ,&nbsp;Zheng-Fei Guo ,&nbsp;Amos P.K. Tai ,&nbsp;Shu-Wen Liu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Rong Wang ,&nbsp;Jie Zhang ,&nbsp;Jin Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming has led to increasing occurrence of hot extremes, yet our understanding of the compound heatwaves (CHW) of both day and night—the most threatening and harmful type—remains limited. Here we use the air temperature from ERA5-Land datasets to analyze key characteristics of global CHW from 1980 to 2022. Our results demonstrate a pronounced increase in global CHW, with an annual cumulative intensity rising by 3.32 °C per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.001), approximately four times greater than the increases observed in individual heatwave types of daytime (0.73 °C per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.001) and nighttime (0.78 °C per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.001), respectively. High latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the Arctic regions, have experienced the highest increases in CHW (&gt;10 °C per decade), especially since 2005. Moreover, interannual variations of CHW are closely linked to major climate modes, displaying strong region-specific connections and varied lagged effect, particularly with ENSO and PDO in tropical regions. Altogether, these results reveal the unexpected prevalence of CHW in recent decades, emphasizing the urgent need to address its potential adverse impacts on human and ecosystem well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 565-575"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Life cycle CO2 emissions of various transformers under different scenarios with multiple functional units","authors":"Chao Liu ,&nbsp;Bo Miao ,&nbsp;Shu-Zhen Li ,&nbsp;Wan-Shui Yu ,&nbsp;Qiu-Jie Yuan ,&nbsp;Yu-Wei Cao ,&nbsp;Yang Yu ,&nbsp;Qing Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive research on transformer life cycle carbon emissions, the selection of an appropriate functional unit remains challenging. Many commonly used functional units inadequately reflect transformer functionalities, hindering accurate comparisons across different voltage levels and capacities. This study performs a life cycle carbon emission analysis to evaluate the impact of different functional unit settings on ten transformers. The average emission per studied transformer is 223.47 t CO₂eq. Carbon emission varies remarkably based on the choice of the functional unit, with values of 6955.40 kg CO₂eq/MVA, 9.83 kg CO₂eq/(MVA kV), 81.08 kg CO₂eq/(kW h) and 1.36 × 10⁻⁴ kg CO₂eq/(MW h kV). Metals are identified as the primary contributors to the overall carbon footprint of transformers, accounting for approximately 73.91% of total emissions, with steel contributing up to 42.98%. Selecting greener raw materials, employing recycled materials and using clean energy in production can help reduce transformer carbon emissions. Scenario analysis reveals that improvements in the electricity generation mix reduce emissions during transformer production by 9%–11%, depending on the level of improvement, with larger improvements demonstrating greater reduction rates. The findings of this study provide insights for selecting appropriate functional units for the carbon assessments of transformers and offer a reference for formulating targeted emission reduction strategies to support the power sector's low-carbon transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 651-662"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change would largely offset labor capacity increment fueled by China’s two-child policy","authors":"Yun-Yun Ban ,&nbsp;Qiu-Hong Tang ,&nbsp;Xing-Cai Liu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Jie Li ,&nbsp;Robin Clark ,&nbsp;Yi-Jia Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s implemented two-child policy (TCP) was aimed at countering the economic challenges posed by an aging population. However, the impact of climate change on the goal of this policy remains uncertain. This study examines how climate change induced heat stress may impact the productivity of the working-age population, measured as total working hours as a result of the TCP. The TCP is projected to increase total working hours of China by 12%–19% under three scenarios compared to the previous one-child policy during 2071–2100. This increase is completely negated by a 19%–29% decrease in the total working hours induced by reduction in labor capacity from heat stress under climate warming. Specifically, compared to the one-child policy (OCP) in the 2071–2100, the total working hours shows the largest increase of 19% contributed by TCP but it can decrease by 9% if climate change is considered under the SSP370 scenario. Likewise, the TCP benefits can be totally offset by climate change which finally leads to 6% and 11% less than OCP under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Climate change’s adverse effects are particularly pronounced (30% or larger decrease in the total working hours under SSP370) in eastern and southern China, which has the most developed economy. Given China’s labor-intensive economic model, this study underscores the need for urgent mitigation strategies to safeguard the nation’s future economic well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 606-612"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of human activities and low-frequency climate variability on East Asian temperature changes at century scale","authors":"Chun-Hui Lu ,&nbsp;Ying Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>East Asia is one of the most densely populated regions in the world. Understanding the human causes of temperature changes, especially at the century scale, is important for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, the attribution study of extreme temperature remains inadequate because of limited observational data from early historical periods. Here, we utilise multiple observational data and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to investigate the influence of external forcing and low-frequency climate variability from sea surface temperature on the changes in daily maximum (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and their difference (diurnal temperature range, DTR) during the period of 1901–2020. We find that the warming trends in East Asia differ across seasons, with the warming magnitudes in spring and winter greater than those in the other two seasons. Detection and attribution based on an optimal fingerprinting method show that anthropogenic forcing mainly explains the observed changes in Tmax and Tmin during 1901–2020. Greenhouse gas forcing contributes approximately 1.1 °C (90% confidence intervals (CI): 0.78–1.3 °C) and 1.4 °C (90% CI: 1.19–1.58 °C) of annual Tmax and Tmin changes, while the anthropogenic aerosol forcing offsets 0.47 °C (90% CI: 0.15–0.92 °C) and 0.4 °C (90% CI: 0.07–0.77 °C) of the warming. For the DTR, the anthropogenic signal could not be detected due to the small signal-to-noise ratio. Meanwhile, the effects of the low-frequency climate variability coming from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are small and mainly attributed to the warming of the Atlantic Ocean induced by global change. This attribution information strengthens the scientific basis and helps decision-makers develop effective strategies and plans.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 576-590"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Radiative effects of black carbon in the Arctic due to recent extreme summer fires","authors":"Xin-Tong Chen ,&nbsp;Shi-Chang Kang ,&nbsp;Dong-Hang Shao ,&nbsp;Yu-Ling Hu ,&nbsp;Jun-Hua Yang ,&nbsp;Mian Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Black carbon (BC) affects the Arctic climate via aerosol‒radiation‒cloud interaction and snow/ice albedo feedback. Fires have become a substantial source of the Arctic BC in recent years, while the radiative effects of BC in the Arctic due to the recent extreme fires remain unclear. In this study, the atmospheric and snow radiative forcing of BC in the Arctic due to the extreme fires in summer 2019 were investigated based on numerical simulations, and the effects on meteorological variables and snow albedo were explored. Biomass burning BC in summer 2019 caused negative radiative forcing at the bottom of the atmosphere in Greenland and the central Arctic Ocean, and it caused positive radiative forcing in Europe, central Siberia, and northern Canada, with values that can reach −9 W/m² and 18 W/m², respectively. The radiative forcing was spatially heterogeneous, which was mainly induced by the dominant role of semi-direct and indirect radiative effects of BC related to cloud changes. The air temperature in the higher troposphere increased in the central Arctic Ocean and Greenland, and the near-surface air temperature increased in Europe, central Siberia, and northern Canada. The responses of wind field and relative humidity were mainly linked with the air temperature changes, and the cyclone activity anomaly can be observed in the central Arctic. Biomass burning BC caused positive snow radiative forcing in Greenland of 0.4–1.4 W/m², and the maximum snow albedo reduction was about 0.005. Overall, this study highlights the importance of BC from fires on the Arctic climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 460-472"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weakening trends of glacier and snowmelt-induced floods in the Upper Yarkant River Basin, Karakoram during 1961–2022","authors":"Ying Yi ,&nbsp;Yu Zhu ,&nbsp;Shi-Yin Liu ,&nbsp;Muhammad Saifullah ,&nbsp;Kun-Peng Wu ,&nbsp;Qiao Liu ,&nbsp;Jin-Yue Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Glacier and snowmelt-induced floods (GSFs) in glacierized regions are highly sensitive to climate change, yet their dynamics in areas such as the Upper Yarkant River Basin (UYRB) remain inadequately understood. Existing studies are constrained by data limitations and oversimplified modeling approaches, underscoring the need for a comprehensive analysis of the long-term changes in GSFs to improve flood risk management and water resource planning in the UYRB. This study investigated the characteristics, temporal changes, and climatic responses of GSFs based on a well-validated hydrological model. Results reveal that GSFs in the UYRB experienced a weakening trend from 1961 to 2022, as indicated by decreases in flood peak, duration, volume, and frequency. Although a portion of GSFs were primarily driven by snow runoff, the majority were mainly governed by glacier runoff. Among the examined climatic factors, temperature during the flood period was the key factor influencing GSF changes. Notably, despite the overall warming and wetting trend in the UYRB, temperatures during GSF events showed a decreasing trend, which suppressed glacier runoff and contributed to the weakening trends of GSFs. Spatial analysis identified the 4500–6000 m a.s.l. elevation zone as hydrologically critical, accounting for approximately 71% of the total runoff during the flood season. Under a 2 °C warming scenario, the intensity of GSFs is expected to increase across all return periods, with greater increases for longer return periods. A 10% increase in precipitation is projected to marginally enhance the intensity of GSFs with return periods of 20 years or less, while decreasing the intensity of extreme floods with 50- to 100-year return periods. Conversely, a 10% decrease in precipitation will reduce the intensity for all return periods. When the 2 °C warming scenario is combined with ±10% changes in precipitation, intensity of GSFs rises across all return periods, with more pronounced effects for longer return periods—especially under conditions of increased precipitation. These findings are pivotal in shaping effective strategies for flood adaptation and mitigation in alpine river basins.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 512-525"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Permafrost‒vegetation controls on water availability over the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau","authors":"Fang Ji ,&nbsp;Lin-Feng Fan ,&nbsp;Shan-Shui Yuan ,&nbsp;Xing-Xing Kuang ,&nbsp;Liu-Jun Zhu ,&nbsp;Jun-Liang Jin ,&nbsp;Ying-Ying Yao ,&nbsp;Jian-Yun Zhang ,&nbsp;Chun-Miao Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Permafrost degradation substantially affects water resources within the cryosphere. It is crucial to elucidate the dynamics of water availability influenced by both permafrost degradation and climate change to fully comprehend the water cycle in cold regions, such as the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau (QTP). While existing studies have established the hydrological consequences of permafrost degradation through altered soil hydraulics and water storage capacity, the complex interplay between thawing permafrost and vegetation dynamics—particularly their synergistic regulation of precipitation partitioning and runoff generation through root-zone water accessibility—are poorly understood, creating critical knowledge gaps in predicting long-term water availability trajectories. In this study, we explore the influence of permafrost-vegetation interactions on regional water availability on the QTP by integrating the effects of permafrost degradation on vegetation into the Budyko-Fu model. Our results reveal a consistent increase in surface runoff (<em>R</em>) of the permafrost regions from 1981 to 2100, predominantly driven by rising precipitation. However, shifts in vegetation patterns, prompted by permafrost degradation, significantly modify hydrological partitioning, leading to non-monotonic variations in the runoff to precipitation ratio (<em>R/P</em>). Notably, early-stage permafrost thaw enhances vegetation growth and evapotranspiration, which results in a decrease in <em>R/P</em>. Conversely, deeper permafrost thaw (<em>e.g</em>., beyond the root zone of vegetation) can lead to vegetation degradation, which subsequently reduces evapotranspiration and consequently increasing the <em>R/P</em> ratio. These findings underscore the pivotal role of vegetation in regulating the hydrological cycle and affecting water availability in permafrost-affected regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 526-537"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}