Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Impact of black carbon and mineral dust on glacier melting in central Tienshan","authors":"Hong-Yu Zhang ,&nbsp;Yu-Lan Zhang ,&nbsp;Fei-Teng Wang ,&nbsp;Tan-Guang Gao ,&nbsp;Zhao-Qing Wang ,&nbsp;Sipika Sundriyal","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The light absorbing impurities (LAIs), primarily black carbon (BC) and mineral dust (MD), can darken the glacier surface, enhance radiative forcing absorption, and then accelerate glacier melting, which poses a major challenge to glacier preservation. However, a quantitative and process-based understanding of LAIs, particularly regarding their vertical distribution, enrichment mechanisms and sources, remains a critical missing component for accurately estimation of glacier melting in the Tienshan region. To address this research gap, snowpit samples were collected from the Urumqi Glacier No.1 (UG1) in the central Tienshan in August 2021 to analyze the vertical distribution of BC and MD and estimate their potential impact on glacier melting. The results showed that both BC and MD concentrations exhibited large fluctuations in the snowpit profile (Coefficient of Variation: 99.1% and 106.7%, respectively), indicating remarkable vertical variability along the snowpit depth with higher values in dust layers and infiltration ice and lower values in surface and eluviated snow layers. Backward trajectory analysis revealed that Central Asia as the primary potential source region of BC deposited on UG1. Using the SNICAR model and scenario simulations based on different snow grain size, it was estimated that LAIs contributed up to albedo reduction by 13.6% ± 8.7% and 7.9% ± 4.7%, respectively, resulting in additional glacier melt by 187.03 ± 124.29 and 108.76 ± 65.94 mm w.e. The results suggested that BC played a more important role than MD in enhancing glacier melting in the central Tienshan region. This study highlights the importance of incorporating LAI induced melt processes into regional glacier mass balance and hydrological models, further supporting to improve water resource management and assessment of transboundary pollutant transport in Central Asia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 358-370"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Water supply‒demand status and management strategies on the Mongolian Plateau","authors":"Dong Wang ,&nbsp;Xian-Hua Wei ,&nbsp;Xiao-Dong Wu ,&nbsp;Tong-Hua Wu ,&nbsp;Ren Li ,&nbsp;Guo-Jie Hu ,&nbsp;De-Fu Zou ,&nbsp;Ke-Yu Bai ,&nbsp;Ya-Dong Liu ,&nbsp;Xu-Chun Yan ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Fan ,&nbsp;Avirmed Dashtseren ,&nbsp;Saruulzaya Adiya","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Arid and semi-arid areas are facing serious water challenges, yet a comprehensive understanding of current and future water supply–demand dynamics remains limited, particularly under climate change and intensified human activities. Based on InVEST and statistical models that include various human activities, we analyzed the patterns and variations of water supply and demand on the Mongolian Plateau for the present period (2001–2020) and projected future (2021–2100). The results showed that grasslands and forests were the primary sources of water supply (77.4%), and cropland was the dominant source of water demand (97.5%), the annual water supply and demand were 238.7 m³/hm² per year and 546.7 m³/hm² per year, respectively. From 2001 to 2020, water supply increased by 9.6 m³/hm² per year (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01), whereas water demand decreased by 10.5 m³/hm² per year (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). The proportion of areas exhibiting a water surplus increased from 31.5% in 2001 to 51.5% in 2020, primarily due to increased precipitation and a reduction in irrigation water demand. By the end of the 21st century, water supply is projected to increase across all scenarios, ranging from 20.3% to 30.1%, while demand trends diverge: it declines by 28.9%–33.3% under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, but rebounds to near-baseline levels under SSP2-4.5. Consequently, water security may improve under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 but may deteriorate under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. We propose region-specific management strategies, including forest conservation, rotational grazing, irrigation optimization, and inter-basin water allocation. The spatially explicit data and findings provide a valuable foundation for transboundary water cooperation and sustainable dryland water management under a warming climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 444-456"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change projections over mid-high latitudes Northern Asia using an ensemble of RegCM5 simulations","authors":"Xian-Bing Tang ,&nbsp;Xue-Jie Gao ,&nbsp;Zhen-Yu Han","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mid-high latitudes Northern Asia (NAS) is highly sensitive to global warming, yet remains understudied—particularly for high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) based future climate change projections. This study conducts three sets of future climate experiments over the region using an RCM, the ICTP RegCM5 at a grid spacing of 25 km, driven by three CMIP6 models of EC-Earth3-Veg, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and NorESM2-MM. Two time slices, 1995 to 2014 for the present day climate, and 2080 to 2099 for the future under the emission pathway of SSP2-4.5, are conducted. The analysis is focused on mean temperature and precipitation in the cold season December‒January‒February (DJF) and warm season of June‒July‒August (JJA). Results show the driving GCMs and nested RegCM5 reproduce the present day climate well while RegCM5 provides with more spatial details. The models show a consistent warm bias over northeastern part of the domain in DJF. Cold bias in JJA in the northeastern and warm bias in the southwestern part of the region, more pronounced in RegCM5, are found. The models exhibit a general wet bias during both DJF and JJA, also greater in RegCM5. Regionally averaged, the biases of GCM/RegCM5 in DJF and JJA are 1.8/0.1 °C and −0.3/−2.7 °C, and for precipitation are 0.24/1.17 mm/d and 0.46/0.31 mm/d, respectively. Pronounced warming is projected in the future. The warming is more pronounced in DJF compared to JJA. RegCM5 shows broad consistencies in the general pattern of the warming with the GCMs but with more spatial details and greater magnitudes. The projected regional mean values of warming by GCM/RegCM5 are 3.7/4.3 °C in DJF and 3.0/3.5 °C in JJA, respectively. Precipitation changes show large differences between RegCM5 and GCMs, mostly due to the amplified circulation changes. In DJF, while the GCMs show a dominant and consistent increase, RegCM5 projects extended areas of decrease (regional means as 23% and 4%, respectively). A regional mean decrease of precipitation in JJA is found in RegCM5 (−6%), while the GCMs show a slight increase (3%). This study provides the first high-resolution multi-model RCM simulations over Northern Asia, offering key insights into present-day climate and future projections for improved regional assessment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 247-261"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pronounced warming and wetting of climate in the Qilian Mountains during 1961–2022","authors":"Ali Bahadur ,&nbsp;Zhan-Lei Rong ,&nbsp;En-Yan Liu ,&nbsp;Yu-Zheng Gu ,&nbsp;Tian-Sheng Gao ,&nbsp;Zhang-Wen Liu ,&nbsp;Pei-Jie Wei ,&nbsp;Li-Juan Ma ,&nbsp;Sheng-Yun Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate high-resolution datasets on regional climate change are vital for ecological assessments, yet it remains difficult to obtain the spatiotemporal dynamics of air temperature and precipitation in high-elevation mountainous regions due to complex topography. Existing gridded climate datasets are often too coarse to represent the strong spatial heterogeneity of mountainous regions. To address this knowledge gap, downscaled air temperature and precipitation datasets provide an effective way to generate high precision climate data. Here, we downscaled the CN05.1 dataset using a geographically weighted regression model to produce a 1 km × 1 km monthly air temperature and precipitation dataset for the Qilian Mountains during 1961–2022. The downscaled air temperature and precipitation were validated using observations from high-elevation meteorological stations. Compared with the original CN05.1 product, the downscaled dataset showed better agreement with station observations and captured finer terrain-driven patterns. Results indicated the high-resolution data reveal mean annual air temperature and precipitation increased significantly, with strongest warming in winter and the most marked precipitation increased in summer and winter. Spatially, the strongest warming trend was observed in the Qaidam Basin, whereas the most pronounced wetting occurred in the Qinghai Lake Basin. Importantly, regions with elevations &gt;4500 experienced the fastest rate of warming than lower regions. These findings improve our understanding of historical climate change in the Qilian Mountains and provide a high-resolution climate dataset suitable for mountain-scale ecological applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 467-473"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Latitudinal gradients in runoff dynamics across undisturbed Eurasian permafrost rivers under accelerating climate change","authors":"Jia QIN ,&nbsp;Yong-Jian DING ,&nbsp;Jun-Hao CUI ,&nbsp;Guang-Xi DING ,&nbsp;Bing-Feng YANG ,&nbsp;Fei-Teng WANG ,&nbsp;Xiao-Bo HE ,&nbsp;Yu-Xin MENG ,&nbsp;Jian-Feng YANG ,&nbsp;Yong-Yong ZHANG","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While the impacts of permafrost degradation on Eurasian river discharge are well-documented, a systematic understanding of how these impacts vary across latitudes—critical for predicting continental water security and Arctic freshwater export—remains lacking. This study bridges this gap by analyzing latitudinal gradients in extreme and mean monthly discharges—lowest (LD), mean (MD), and highest (HD) monthly discharge—across 22 major Eurasian permafrost rivers, integrating snowmelt dynamics and winter river ice dynamics with watershed energy-water budgets. We find pronounced latitudinal gradients in hydrological responses. The most robust change is a pan-Eurasian increase in winter baseflow (LD, 5%–8% per decade), primarily driven by warming-induced river ice (24-d shorter freezing duration; 8.2% volume decline contributing 19.6% to LD rise). In contrast, high (HD) and mean (MD) discharge trends show distinct zonal divergence: significant increases in precipitation-driven low latitudes, a post-1990s reversal from decline to increase in mid-latitudes, and muted but more variable trends in high latitudes where precipitation increases are offset by evapotranspiration and storage changes. The late 1990s marked a critical shift, synchronizing abrupt hydrological changes with contemporaneous shifts in regional climate forcing and cryospheric processes. The identified latitudinal patterns and their underlying mechanisms provide a predictive framework for anticipating future hydrological extremes—from winter water scarcity to flood risks—in these vulnerable basins in a warming world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 308-323"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the coordination and consistency of the policy system for achieving China’s carbon neutrality goal based on text and network methods","authors":"Jin-Hua Xu ,&nbsp;Xue-Ying Wang ,&nbsp;Jie Su ,&nbsp;Yuan-Yuan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lack of coordination and consistency in government policy-making has long been recognized as a weakness, yet its systematic quantification has been neglected. This study investigates this shortcoming by employing computational linguistics and network analysis tools to evaluate the coordination and consistency of climate policies in China through cross-referencing and collaboration among the State Council, ministries and local governments. A comprehensive dictionary of key policy terms and objectives from two key climate policies issued by the State Council, namely Opinions and Action Plan, was constructed to evaluate the succeeding 95 policy documents. The analysis of linguistic discontinuity provides insights into the substantial lack of coordination among ministries, with only 17.5% of term pairings exhibiting co-reference. Nevertheless, the overall policy content remains largely consistent with the central government’s dual carbon goals. Key policy documents and influential ministries play a critical bridging role, fostering cross-sectoral coordination and serving as the core of the network. Local government policy analysis reveals substantial fragmentation, with only 21.6% of term pairings exhibiting co-reference. A large number of potential collaboration opportunities are identified, such as those between financial regulators and industry-related ministries in the area of green finance. It underscores the need for enhanced cross-department and inter-governmental cooperation and alignment to implement climate goals effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 431-443"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Daily imaging from China's HJ-2A/B satellites enables yearly mapping of regional glacial lakes","authors":"Yong Nie ,&nbsp;Wen Wang ,&nbsp;Hamish D. Pritchard ,&nbsp;Chang-Jun Gu ,&nbsp;Qi-Yuan Lyu ,&nbsp;Yu-Hong Wu ,&nbsp;Su-Ju Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid expansion of glacial lakes in high-mountain regions, both in number and area, increases the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) to downstream communities. Optical remote sensing is essential for regional monitoring, as these lakes are frequently widespread and often inaccessible. However, clear image acquisition in mountainous areas is regularly hindered by shadowing, seasonal snow, and cloud cover. In the Himalayas, more frequent imaging is necessary to accurately inventory lakes during the short, snow-free periods. The HJ-2A/B satellites deployed by China now provide daily revisits at 16 m resolution, enabling comprehensive, high-quality mapping of glacial lakes. This study introduces a novel framework that uses a deep-learning U-Net model to detect lakes in HJ-2 imagery automatically and assesses its efficacy for monitoring lake changes in the China–Nepal section of the Central Himalayas (CNCH). Our findings indicate that the frequent imaging capabilities of HJ-2 permit annual lake mapping within a specific 1-mon period, achieving an accuracy and sensitivity to area changes exceeding 99%, with the ability to detect changes as small as 0.004 km². In our case study, we identify 2738 lakes in 2022 and 2739 lakes in 2023, with respective areas of 256.51 ± 14.41 km² and 260.89 ± 14.59 km². Despite certain limitations in geometric and radiometric calibration, this study establishes that HJ-2 imagery is highly effective for consistent, frequent monitoring of glacial lake changes and GLOF risks compared to previous satellite imagery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 338-346"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distribution, trends, and drivers of snow avalanche susceptibility on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau from 2003 to 2022","authors":"Chao-Yue Li ,&nbsp;Hao-Zhuo Wei ,&nbsp;Jian-Sheng Hao ,&nbsp;Ya-Qiao Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The lack of clarity regarding the trends in avalanche susceptibility over recent decades highlights a significant research gap. This pressing scientific challenge has major implications for risk management and infrastructure resilience. In this study, we identified and established an avalanche catalog database by combining remote-sensing interpretation with field validation. Then, we developed an Intelligent Weighted Synergy Optimization Model (IWSOM), which improved predictive accuracy by incorporating thresholds for snow cover days and slope. Utilizing this model, we quantified the evolution of avalanche susceptibility on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) from 2003 to 2022. The results showed a general decline in avalanche susceptibility from 2003 to 2022, with approximately 26.5% of the region experiencing a general reduction, mainly in the Nyainqentanglha Range and the Hengduan Mountains. We further found that high-susceptibility zones have been shifting to higher altitudes, while mid-to low-susceptibility zones have been migrating downward. Moreover, avalanche susceptibility has exhibited spatial interdependence, with its sensitivity progressively weakening from the monsoon zone to the westerly zone. The monsoon region has emerged as the primary driver of the reduced avalanche susceptibility in the QTP. These results hold significant theoretical and practical importance for understanding the factors controlling avalanche events as well as for the scientific prevention and management of avalanche disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 347-357"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Updated radiative efficiencies and emissions metrics of halocarbons","authors":"Li-Ting Liu ,&nbsp;Hua Zhang ,&nbsp;Qi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurately quantifying the radiative properties of halogenated compounds is essential for climate change research, given their potent warming potential. While radiative transfer models facilitate explicit calculation of radiative efficiencies for individual gases, notable discrepancies persist among different studies. In this study, we apply an improved radiative transfer model to calculate the radiative efficiencies with stratospheric temperature adjustment for 15 key halogenated compounds, thereby revising marked overestimates identified in earlier applications of the original model. The results show that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) contribute 64%, 16%, and 13%, respectively, to the 2023 radiative forcing (0.352 W/m²) from the 15 species. The radiative forcing of chlorinated compounds is in steady decline due to emission restrictions, whereas that of HFCs is highly scenario-dependent but projected to be 1.3 times the present level by 2100 under a policy-inclusive scenario. Furthermore, we assess the distinct impacts of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas emissions on global surface temperature using various emissions metrics. Temperature response simulations demonstrate that the conventional global warming potential (GWP-100) underestimates the initial warming from short-lived gas emissions by at least 50% while overestimating the post-mitigation warming by nearly a factor of four. Comparatively, emerging metrics contribute to reducing ambiguity in future warming estimates, owing to their closer alignment with model simulations. This study provides an updated physical basis for evaluating the radiative properties of halogenated compounds and supports more comprehensive climate policy assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 237-246"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimising future scenarios of forest fire occurrence in Daxing'anling using long-term survey data and intelligent modelling","authors":"Ya-Kui Shao ,&nbsp;Wei-Ke Li ,&nbsp;Ming-Yu Wang ,&nbsp;Qiu-Yang Du ,&nbsp;Jia Wang ,&nbsp;Li-Fu Shu ,&nbsp;Li-Qing Si ,&nbsp;Feng-Jun Zhao ,&nbsp;Zhong-Ke Feng ,&nbsp;Lin-Hao Sun ,&nbsp;Xu-Sheng Li ,&nbsp;Ai-Ai Wang ,&nbsp;Zi-Xuan Qiu ,&nbsp;Zhi-Chao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Daxing'anling Mountains, as a climate-sensitive region, are experiencing forest fires that threaten the area's ecological security. Nevertheless, most of the existing fire prediction models are stationary. They do not have an all-embracing scheme for simultaneously managing fire ignition causes, dynamic fire scenarios and spatial targeting. Hence, the development of an accurate and efficient forest fire forecasting system is vital. This study establishes a prediction framework that integrates long-term survey data with multi-source remote sensing, incorporating spatiotemporal clustering, spatial autocorrelation and an optimised ensemble of LR–RF–SVM–GBDT algorithms. Among the 3368 recorded fire incidents, lightning-ignited fires accounted for 51.19%, making lightning storms the predominant cause of ignition. While the frequency of lightning-induced fires increased significantly (1.24 per year, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05), the total burned area remained relatively stable. The proposed framework outperformed individual models by achieving higher predictive metrics (accuracy = 0.89, AUC = 0.94, F1 = 0.89) and providing robust support for operational early warning and real-time management. The projections for future climate, based on the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, depict a notable geographical shift in fire-prone areas. Besides the traditionally known eastern areas of Xiaogenhe and Chabanhe, which are expected to see an increase in fire occurrences, new high-fire-risk areas are expected to emerge in the central–western regions, such as Huzhong and Wuyuan. Quantitative findings reveal that the divergence in forest fire probabilities between the high-emission SSP585 and SSP126 scenarios will increase over time. The expected increase ranges from 0.29% in the 2030s to 0.92% in the 2050s, then rises to 4.48% in the 2070s and reaches 6.48% by the 2090s. These figures highlight the urgency of implementing fire management practices that are not only adaptive but also specific to particular areas. The scenario-based forecasts represent a proactive approach to assisting forest fire governance under climate change, providing a basis for future decisions as quantitative evidence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 388-399"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}