Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Technology pathway to decarbonisation in the building sector based on a policy review of major economies","authors":"Jie Xiong ,&nbsp;Si-Yue Guo ,&nbsp;Xian Zhang ,&nbsp;Run-Ming Yao ,&nbsp;Pan-Yu Zhu ,&nbsp;Xue-Ting Peng ,&nbsp;Nian Yang ,&nbsp;Ya-Ting Zhang ,&nbsp;Mai Shi ,&nbsp;Xi Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building decarbonisation is crucial to achieve the carbon neutrality targets. Although many studies have been conducted, a gap remains in the research concerning technology development and policy design. This study conducted a comprehensive review of the decarbonisation pathways proposed by the ten largest economies globally for the building sector at the national level. By synthesising the relevant literature, a systemic framework of technologies applicable to the building sector is proposed, encompassing five major categories of technologies: energy efficiency, electrification and clean heating, on-site generation and flexible utilisation, green construction materials and processes, and sufficiency in operation and maintenance. An overview of each country’s emphasis on technological development, future expectations and prevailing trends in technology deployment is summarised and discussed. Most countries' policy documents address energy efficiency, electrification, and clean heating; however, the importance of flexibility and sufficiency warrants further emphasis. The balance among different technologies, the impacts of lock-in effects, and the considerations of equity and justice in renovation processes are critical concerns for the future deployment of technologies. This study can provide a meaningful reference for the following research phase and the development of pathways to decarbonise buildings for countries worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 183-198"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future changes in population exposure to intensified heatwaves over three major urban agglomerations in China based on excess heat factor","authors":"Qin-Yao Zhou ,&nbsp;Miao-Ni Gao ,&nbsp;Jing Yang ,&nbsp;Xin-Yue Sun ,&nbsp;Yan-Yu Lu ,&nbsp;Tong Jiang ,&nbsp;Bu-Da Su ,&nbsp;Tao Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwave events (HWs) have become more frequent and intense due to climate change and urbanization, posing risks to human health, yet the influence of rapid temperature fluctuation on human adaptation during these events remains insufficiently explored. This study identified HWs and estimated population exposure across three major urban agglomerations in eastern China based on the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), which accounts for the superposed effect of extreme heat and human adaptability in response to rapid temperature fluctuations. From 1961 to 2022, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region and Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) suffered from moderate HWs with higher frequency and shorter duration, while HWs in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region were characterized by lower frequency and longer duration. Compared to EHF, the conventional approach that uses single temperature criteria to identify HWs tends to underestimate their intensity without accounting for the effects of sudden temperature rises on human adaptability. Based on the downscaled ensemble of 23 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), HWs and population exposure are expected to increase across the three urban agglomerations in the near-term (2025–2035) and mid-term (2055–2065) future, with GBA experiencing the greatest rise in HW days. However, YRD will have the highest population exposure due to its large population. During the projected explosive growth of severe/extreme HW days, low and intermediate GHG emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5) could potentially avoid 29%/45%, 28%/42% and 44%/96% of the increase in population exposure to these events across the BTH, YRD, and GBA, respectively, in the mid-term future, compared to high GHG emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Further analysis reveals that the expected increase in HWs in GBA and BTH is attributable to the combined effect of intensified temperature variability and warming, while the changes in HWs in YRD are primarily driven by rising temperatures. The results emphasize the urgent need to develop resilience to HWs in a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 12-24"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional reallocation of zero-carbon ammonia production in China with carbon neutrality targets","authors":"Pian-Pian Xiang ,&nbsp;Jia-Chen Wang ,&nbsp;Ke-Jun Jiang ,&nbsp;Chen-Min He ,&nbsp;Wei-Yi Jiang ,&nbsp;Lin-Qing Guo ,&nbsp;Yu-Jie Jiao ,&nbsp;Sha Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Current studies have shown that local feedstocks such as coal, natural gas, and solar resources support regional industrial decarbonization pathways but fail to consider inter-regional cooperation. We employed the IPAC-technology model to develop a sub-national economic technological assessment model for the ammonia industry, incorporating commodity transportation costs to directly connect ammonia production locations. Our analysis indicates that carbon price is crucial for achieving zero carbon emissions across all regions. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Northwest China are likely to become electrolytic hydrogen-based ammonia production centers; Beijing‒Tianjin‒Hebei Region and Shandong are expected to develop nuclear hydrogen-based ammonia production; Southern China, Henan, and Shanxi are set to become hydrogen-based ammonia importer; and the Yangtze River Delta and Southwest China appear to have more varied development opportunities. Notably, while national CO₂ emissions from ammonia sector decrease overall, emissions in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and the Triangle of Central China are projected to increase in the near term. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry practitioners to develop decarbonization strategies and reallocation policies for China's ammonia industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 199-212"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Calibrating the simulated summer precipitation trend over the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 models using a sub-selection method","authors":"Hao-Lin Luo ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen ,&nbsp;Song Yang ,&nbsp;Wei Yu ,&nbsp;Zi-Qian Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for Asian water balance and global climate patterns. The southern slope of the TP (SSTP), a precipitation center in summer, has experienced a long-term drying trend in recent decades. Accurate simulations and projections of the change in summer precipitation over the SSTP are critical for future sustainable development. However, the multi-model ensemble (MME) from the current state-of-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 indicates a wetting trend (∼2.58 mm per month per decade) over the SSTP during the period 1965–2014, contradicting the observations (∼−2.95 mm per month per decade). This discrepancy can be attributed to an overestimation of the stimulating impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) on precipitation trend in CMIP6 models. The traditional MME shows limited capability in capturing the response of atmospheric vertical motions and water vapor to the GHG forcing across the SSTP, resulting in wetting biases by the vertical moisture advection and thermodynamically controlled horizontal moisture advection. A sub-selection method is introduced to calibrate the historical simulated wetting trend at each grid point, through which the selected MME (SMME) more reasonably characterizes the precipitation response to GHG forcing and reproduces the observed drying trend, showing a value about −1.95 mm per month per decade. As GHGs are expected to be the major external forcing in the future, this method is extended to future projections. For the anticipated future wetting trend over the SSTP, the SMME results are constrained to 61.8% and 76.4% in the moderate- and high-emission scenarios, respectively, for the period 2050–2099.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 35-43"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon simulation to horizontal resolution and air‒sea coupling in the FGOALS-f climate system model","authors":"Xin-Yu He ,&nbsp;Bian He ,&nbsp;Qing Bao ,&nbsp;Yi-Min Liu ,&nbsp;Jian-Dong Li ,&nbsp;Xiao-Cong Wang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Chen Chen ,&nbsp;Guo-Xiong Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The relative importance between horizontal resolution and air‒sea coupling on improving Asian summer monsoon (ASM) simulation skill remains unclear. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of ASM to horizontal resolution and air‒sea coupling via simulations using a series of versions of the FGOALS-f model. The possible causes of bias are further analyzed. The results show that the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) run of high model resolution (25 km) achieves the highest skill on capturing ASM pattern, while the AMIP run of low model resolution (100 km) appears the lowest skill. Further analysis of the hydrological cycle and monsoon dynamics suggested that the simulation of the vertical moisture transport term was the primary contributor to excessive precipitation over the western Pacific. In addition, the excessive release of latent heat and strong ASM circulation are also responsible for the strong precipitation intensity in the AMIP simulation. Importantly, although the air‒sea coupled simulation exhibited the higher skill level, the simulated sea surface temperature (SST) exhibited an overall cold bias. This cold bias partly counteracted excessive moisture transport after air‒sea interaction is considered. Thus, increasing resolution could be helpful for more accurate simulation of advection, and together with the use of prescribed observed daily SST could play more important roles than only considering air‒sea coupling on improving ASM simulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 44-57"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The interaction between thermokarst lake drainage and ground subsidence accelerates permafrost degradation","authors":"Yi-Ning Yu ,&nbsp;Feng-Ming Hui ,&nbsp;Yu Zhou ,&nbsp;Xiao Cheng ,&nbsp;Ming-Hu Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since it is not viable to directly evaluate permafrost change based on remote sensing, thermokarst lake drainage (TLD) and ground subsidence serve as indicators for depicting permafrost degradation. Unfortunately, the interaction between these two land surface processes as well as their joint effect remain unclear. In this study, based on a homogenized Landsat-Sentinel archive, TLD was detected in the Lena Basin during 2000–2022 thawing seasons using the modified LandTrendr algorithm. Only 9.7% of thermokarst lakes (TLs) experienced remarkable drainage, TLs larger than 30 hm² were more prone to undergone drainage processes. The drainage proportion among TLs with different extents all exceeded 10% during 2013–2015, suggesting the gradual drainage which lasted for three years or longer was likely to be the dominating type. The subsidence rates (−1.64 ± 0.89 to −1.94 ± 1.41 mm per year) surrounding drained TLs were higher than regional average (−1.40 ± 1.19 to −1.60 ± 1.26 mm per year). As the distance to drained TLs decreased, the proportion of subsidence measurements, rates, and seasonal subsidence magnitude exhibited consistent increasing trends. The subsidence rate was higher in the direction of more intense drainage than that in other directions. The ground subsidence trigger TLD by providing meltwater and reducing structural support, while TLD in turn contributes to ground subsidence by forming drainage channels. More importantly, our findings proved that their interaction further accelerates permafrost degradation, which is critical for more accurately modeling the complex permafrost degradation processes under the warmer and wetter Arctic climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 109-124"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wind power correction model designed by the quantitative assessment for the impacts of forecasted wind speed error","authors":"Zhi-Qi Xu ,&nbsp;Tong Xue ,&nbsp;Xin-Yu Chen ,&nbsp;Jin Feng ,&nbsp;Gu-Wei Zhang ,&nbsp;Cheng Wang ,&nbsp;Chun-Hui Lu ,&nbsp;Hai-Shan Chen ,&nbsp;Yi-Hui Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The errors in wind power forecast will incur additional cost. It is critical to quantify the relationship between forecasting error in wind speed and power output. Unlike previous works that have rarely considered the speed error, we propose a comprehensive and repeatable wind power forecast correction model that quantitatively assess the impacts of speed error on power error, based on the power curves, speed predictions and distribution of speed forecast error. In this correction model, the power forecast error is obtained by calculating the mathematical expectation. The mathematical expectation of the wind power error is equal to the integral of the wind power error multiplied by its associated probability. Additionally, power forecast error and its probability are constructed as a function of speed forecast error and speed forecast error probability, respectively. To evaluate the model performance, numerical simulations are carried out in Guilin, Xiangyang and Xihai. The results suggest that the model can reduce the biases between observed and forecasted power, with the correlation coefficients increasing by over 15% in Guilin and Xihai. Furthermore, the root mean square error exhibits notable decline, with a reduction of over 35%, from 0.34 to 0.21 MW, from 0.42 to 0.27 MW and from 0.39 to 0.24 MW in the three aforementioned locations, respectively. This study contributes to enhancing the efficiency of wind power generation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 73-81"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate warming and wetting poses a severe threat to permafrost engineering stability on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau","authors":"Xiao-Ming Xu ,&nbsp;Zhong-Qiong Zhang ,&nbsp;Bo-Wen Tai ,&nbsp;Si-Ru Gao ,&nbsp;Yu-Zhong Yang ,&nbsp;Qing-Bai Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Permafrost underpins engineering in cold regions but is highly sensitive to climate change. The mechanisms linking climate warming, precipitation changes, and permafrost degradation to infrastructure stability remain poorly understood on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau (QXP). Here, we present a multi-factor framework to quantify climate impacts on permafrost engineering stability. Our findings reveal a 26.7% decline in permafrost engineering stability from 2015 to 2100, with areas of extremely poor stability expanding by 0.3 × 10⁴ km² per decade (SSP2-4.5) and 0.6 × 10⁴ km² per decade (SSP5-8.5). Meanwhile, regions with relatively better stability shrink by 2.0 × 10⁴ km² and 2.9 × 10⁴ km² per decade, respectively. These changes driven primarily by a warming and wetting climate pattern. Moreover, engineering stability is maintained in northwestern and interior regions, whereas warmer, ice-saturated areas in the central plateau and southern Qilian Mountains degrade rapidly. Notably, cold permafrost is warming faster than warm permafrost, increasing its vulnerability. These insights provide a critical basis for guiding the future design, construction, and maintenance of permafrost infrastructure, enabling the development of adaptive engineering strategies that account for projected climate change impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 93-108"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the added value of convection-permitting modeling for urban climate research: A case study in eastern China","authors":"Lin Pei ,&nbsp;Shi-Guang Miao ,&nbsp;Xiang-Yu Huang ,&nbsp;Zhong-Wei Yan ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate urban-resolving climate data are essential for urban climate research and applications. However, General Circulation Models (GCMs) often lack the resolution and urban representation needed to provide reliable fine-scale climate information over urban areas. Convection-permitting modeling (CPM) has emerged as a promising solution to this challenge, despite its computational demands. Evaluating the added value of CPM for specific regions is crucial. In this study, we utilized the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model, as a regional climate model, to assess the performance and added value of CPM at both regional (urban clusters) and local (megacity) scales. With an optimized dynamic downscaling scheme, we conducted 3-km-resolution CPM and 9-km-resolution dynamic downscaling modeling (DDM) during the summer of 2020 in eastern China, where most cities and urban clusters are located. At the local scale, CPM well reproduced observed precipitation rates at daily and sub-daily time scales, greatly improved the overestimation of drizzle-to-light rainfall events and underestimation of heavy-to-torrential rain events in ERA5 reanalysis data. Additionally, CPM effectively captured diurnal variations in precipitation across six sub-regions of eastern China, a capability lacking in DDM and ERA5. Moreover, CPM successfully reproduced the observed urban heat island intensity in Beijing by capturing the heterogeneous air temperature distribution, outperforming ERA5 and DDM. Our findings highlight the considerable added value of CPM in simulating sub-daily precipitation variations and urban heat island intensity over urban areas of China. These insights will greatly enhance future high-resolution regional climate simulations and climate change projections over urban areas in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of the performance of WRF9km in simulating climate over the upper Yellow River Basin","authors":"Yi-Jia Li ,&nbsp;Xue-Jia Wang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Hua Gou ,&nbsp;Qi Wang ,&nbsp;Tinghai Ou ,&nbsp;Guo-Jin Pang ,&nbsp;Mei-Xue Yang ,&nbsp;Lan-Ya Liu ,&nbsp;Li-Ya Qie ,&nbsp;Tao Wang ,&nbsp;Jia-Yu Wang ,&nbsp;Si-Hao Wei ,&nbsp;Xiao-Lai Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the current climate in the Yellow River Basin is essential for accurately predicting future climate change and assessing its impacts on water resources and ecosystems; however, existing models exhibit notable biases in this region, primarily due to low resolution and errors in driving data and model domains. Using <em>in-situ</em> station observation data, CN05.1 gridded meteorological observation dataset, along with the ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalysis datasets, the performance of the WRF9km in simulating temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 2016 was comprehensively evaluated. Results indicate that the WRF9km model effectively captures the spatial pattern of air temperature, with a spatial correlation exceeding 0.86 (at the 95% confidence level) and a cold bias of −2.8 °C compared to CN05.1. This bias is primarily due to the underestimation of downward radiation and the overestimation of surface albedo. However, the WRF9km model fails to reproduce the observed warming trend across the entire region, especially during the summer. For precipitation, the WRF9km model generally reproduces the observed spatial pattern, with spatial correlation coefficients above 0.80 for all seasons except winter (at the 95% confidence level). However, the model overestimates precipitation relative to CN05.1 and underestimates it when compared to MERRA2. The precipitation bias is mainly attributed to the misrepresentation of wind fields and moisture by the WRF9km model. Regarding precipitation trends, different datasets yield divergent results, indicating substantial inter-annual variability that is difficult for the WRF9km to capture. Compared to the driving ERA5 data, the WRF9km model reduces cold biases between November and December, as well as wet biases across all seasons. The model also better simulates the winter warming trend in the western part of the UYRB and the summer wetting trend in the northern part. The evaluation of the WRF9km model provides valuable insights for the development of dynamical downscaling in terrain complex regions, especially for improving the surface albedo scheme and input driving data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 58-72"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}