Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Associations of compound hot extremes and heat waves with first-ever stroke morbidity in the context of climate change","authors":"Chen-Lu Yang ,&nbsp;Ming-Wei Wang ,&nbsp;Zhou-Peng Ren ,&nbsp;Yi-Ke Li ,&nbsp;Yong-Lin Hou ,&nbsp;Cun-Rui Huang ,&nbsp;Jun-Zhe Bao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of abnormal weather, with current daytime and nighttime temperatures being higher than their historical counterparts. Previous studies have focused on exploring the health hazards of absolute heat (above the optimum temperature, often calculated on the basis of short periods of current data). However, the health hazards of climate change–induced relative heat (above the extremes of historical counterparts, often calculated on the basis of 30 years of temperature data or more) are unclear. Therefore, this study aims to explore the associations of different types (daytime only, nighttime only and combined daytime–nighttime) of heat and heat waves with stroke morbidity in consideration of human climate adaptation. The data of patients with stroke were obtained from Shenzhen, China, for the period of 2003–2018. Daytime and nighttime heat thresholds for specific calendar days in the study period were defined on the basis of hourly temperatures for long-term counterparts, which were the day and 7 d before and after each calendar day in the historical baseline (1973–2002). The associations of different types of heat and heat waves defined by bivariate heat thresholds with stroke morbidity were explored by using distributed lag nonlinear models. Relevant vulnerable populations and sensitive disease subtypes were identified through stratified analyses. Compound hot extremes and heat waves (combined daytime and nighttime heat and heat waves) were associated with stroke morbidity, with relative risks (RRs) of 1.279 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.078, 1.519) and 1.500 (95% CI: 1.142, 1.969), respectively, and attributable fractions (AFs) of 1.658% (95% CI: 0.548%, 2.594%) and 0.970% (95% CI: 0.362%, 1.432%), respectively. Associations between heat and heat waves during daytime only and nighttime only with stroke morbidity were statistically insignificant. Males, females and adults aged under and over 65 years were vulnerable to compound hot extremes and heat waves, and the differences between subgroups were statistically insignificant. Ischaemic stroke was the subtype sensitive to compound hot extremes and heat waves with RRs of 1.338 (95% CI: 1.101, 1.626) and 1.553 (95% CI: 1.138, 2.119), respectively, and AFs of 1.956% (95% CI: 0.709%, 2.982%) and 1.064% (95% CI: 0.363%, 1.578%), respectively, whereas haemorrhagic stroke had statistically insignificant associations. Compound hot extremes and heat waves may lead to an increased risk of stroke morbidity in the context of climate change. Governments should emphasise the forecasting and warning of compound hot weather with temperatures higher than the extremes of long-term historical counterparts to reduce associated disease burdens.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 425-432"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methods","authors":"Xuan-Jia Li ,&nbsp;Xiao-Qing Peng ,&nbsp;Oliver W. Frauenfeld ,&nbsp;Guang-Shang Yang ,&nbsp;Wei-Wei Tian ,&nbsp;Yuan Huang ,&nbsp;Gang Wei ,&nbsp;Guan-Qun Chen ,&nbsp;Cui-Cui Mu ,&nbsp;Hao Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous permafrost extent estimates applied one or two methods to calculate the permafrost area, and the uncertainties between the methods were not assessed. Here, we apply seven methods to estimate and project global permafrost area extent and discuss the uncertainties of each approach. These methods are forced with output from CMIP6 and ERA5-Land, and we quantify the seven methods’ differences and uncertainties. During the historical period (1981–2010), the mean global permafrost area from multiple methods is 14.1 ± 4.5 × 10⁶ km², with differences ranging from 2.1% to 31.2%. The variability in future permafrost area extent degradation relative to the historical period based on different methods ranges from 1.8% to 34.7%. Uncertainties in permafrost area extent estimates can reach 35% based on different methods. Under various future emission pathways (<em>e.g.</em>, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) projects a permafrost extent of only 1.3–8.2 × 10⁶ km² for 2070–2099, corresponding to area decreases of 51.2%–86.9%. Spatially, permafrost near the lower-latitude permafrost boundary may completely disappear by the end of the 21st century, while degradation in the circum-Arctic, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and Antarctica will be smaller, but still exceed 50% under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). Compared to the temperature distribution of existing permafrost maps, the temperature at top of permafrost model and the surface frost index using ground temperature adjusted for snow methods perform best. However, compared to <em>in-situ</em> boreholes, two generalized linear model approaches have the best overall accuracy. These uncertainties using different methods are important to recognize in assessments of the future state of permafrost degradation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 312-323"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Degradation of potential winter roads threatens vulnerable communities’ freight accessibility in the pan-Arctic region","authors":"Li-Yuan Chen ,&nbsp;Wen-Quan Zhu ,&nbsp;Cun-De Xiao ,&nbsp;Cen-Liang Zhao ,&nbsp;Hong-Xiang Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Winter roads, which are seasonal roads built on frozen surfaces, serve as a socio-economic lifeline in the pan-Arctic region but are sensitive to amplified Arctic warming. Potential winter roads (PWRs) refer to areas where environmental conditions are suitable for forming the frozen foundation of winter roads. These roads are used to support various vehicles for diverse transportation purposes. However, PWRs for different vehicles (PWRDVs) have not been systematically identified, and the impact of changes in PWRs for freight vehicles on community freight accessibility remains unclear. This study quantified changes in PWRDVs in the pan-Arctic region during the water years 2003–2022 and assessed community freight accessibility under these changes. Results indicate that PWRs for heavier vehicles exhibited smaller areas (ranging from (6.32−8.02) × 10⁶ km² as multi-year averages), shorter durations (ranging from 160 to 180 d for areal and multi-year averages), and more severe degradation. Degraded PWRDVs were primarily observed in the Eurasian Arctic. PWRDV areas decreased by (1.6–3.7) × 10⁴ km² per year (2%–6% per decade). Shortened durations occurred in 8%–21% of PWRDVs, with average reductions of (1.30–2.03) d per year (7%–13% per decade). Some degradation trends were more pronounced than previously documented long-term trends, suggesting accelerated degradation in recent years. Without artificial improvements to other transportation infrastructure, the degradation of PWRs for freight vehicles led to reduced freight accessibility, with improvements in accessibility through PWRs decreasing by 2%–73% per decade in 155 communities, most of which were considered vulnerable due to their relatively large populations and remoteness. These findings provide insights into changes in winter roads and can help enhance the resilience of winter roads and communities to climate change in the pan-Arctic region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 381-396"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The freezing‒thawing index and permafrost extent in pan-Arctic experienced rapid changes following the global warming hiatus","authors":"Hong-Xiang Guo ,&nbsp;Wen-Quan Zhu ,&nbsp;Cun-De Xiao ,&nbsp;Cen-Liang Zhao ,&nbsp;Li-Yuan Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global ground surface temperatures experienced a rapid increase following the end of the global warming hiatus in 2013. The rapid temperature increase has potential to drive changes in FDD/TDD and permafrost extent in pan-Arctic. In this study, the temporal and spatial trends of air freezing‒thawing index (AFDD/ATDD) and ground surface freezing‒thawing index (GFDD/GTDD) in pan-Arctic from 2003 to 2023 were analyzed, with a particular focus on the changes between the decades preceding and following 2013. The changes in permafrost extent were also analyzed. The results indicate that from 2003 to 2023, the AFDD and GFDD significantly (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) decreased at rates of 11.07 and 5.34 °C d per year, while the ATDD and GTDD significantly (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) increased at rates of 7.69 and 4.34 °C d per year, respectively. The FDD/TDD experienced rapid changes after the global warming hiatus, with the decreasing rates in AFDD and GFDD intensifying after 2013 to 15.75 °C d per year and 6.27 °C d per year, respectively, and increasing rates in ATDD and GTDD intensifying after 2013 to 15.88 °C d per year and 8.50 °C d per year, respectively. The permafrost area in pan-Arctic experienced a decline from 13.4 × 10⁶ km² in 2003–2013 to 12.51 × 10⁶ km² in 2014–2023, representing a decadal reduction of 0.78 × 10⁶ km² (6.64%). The rapid decadal reduction in permafrost extent surpassed the decadal changes projected by historical trend since 1901, despite a slight expansion in southern Canada. The results provide novel insights into recent changes in FDD/TDD and permafrost extent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 350-360"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High-altitude precipitation controls the mass balance of Pasu Glacier, Karakoram over 2000–2020: A case study based on mass and energy budget","authors":"Yu Zhu ,&nbsp;Shi-Yin Liu ,&nbsp;Ying Yi ,&nbsp;Li-De Tian ,&nbsp;Muhammad Ashraf ,&nbsp;Fu-Ming Xie ,&nbsp;Muhammad Saifullah ,&nbsp;Syed Hammad Ali ,&nbsp;Richard Grünwald","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Glaciers in the Karakoram exhibit stability or near-balanced mass changes, in stark contrast to the widespread glacier retreat observed globally. However, the limited availability of observational data, coupled with the lack of in-depth exploration of ablation physical mechanisms, has hindered a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving the anomalous behavior of these glaciers. This study employs an energy‒mass balance model, validated against observational data, and focuses on the representative Pasu Glacier to identify the key factors contributing to the near-balanced glacier mass budget observed over 2000–2020. The analysis revealed an average mass balance of −0.030 ± 0.247 m w.e. per year for Pasu Glacier in 2000–2020, with an average equilibrium line altitude of 4150 m. While snowfall was the primary determinant of mass balance for interannual and seasonal variations, turbulent heat exchange also played a significant role in the glacier's energy balance process. Through an analysis of altitude gradients and long-term variations in mass‒energy gain and loss and comparisons with other glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA), we concluded that 1) the balanced state of Pasu Glacier was largely attributed to the magnitude and extent of the accumulation of precipitation at high elevations, 2) reduced snowfall in highly accumulated areas (−0.79% per year), increasing melting intensity (0.026 m w.e. per year), and prolonged melting duration (∼24 d during 2000–2020) indicated a negative tendency of glacier mass budgets, and 3) Pasu Glacier exhibited similar characteristics of continental glaciers in terms of energy balance and polar continental glaciers in terms of mass gain, which have contributed to the stability of Pasu Glacier in 2000–2020. Our findings provide valuable insight into the dominant factors contributing to the balanced state of Pasu Glacier and can be applied to addressing other glacier changes in the Karakoram.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 240-256"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global glacier albedo trends over 2000–2022: Drivers and implications","authors":"Fei-Teng Wang ,&nbsp;Lin Wang ,&nbsp;Zhong-Qin Li ,&nbsp;Zhen-Cai DU ,&nbsp;Jing Ming","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the accelerated loss of global glacier mass in the 21st century, the dynamics governing glacier albedo and its role in this decline are not fully understood. Addressing this knowledge gap, this study investigates global glacier albedo trends, a critical but overlooked factor in the context of climate change. this investigation utilized the Randolph Glacier Inventory v7.0, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery, and ERA5-Land reanalysis data to decode the trends and drivers of glacier albedo from 2000 to 2022 on a global scale. We reported a general global albedo decline of 0.06% ± 0.04% (at 95% confidence level) per annum with regional deviations, predominantly driven by increases in surface air temperature across most regions, challenging the conclusions of earlier regional studies. Notably, in the Low Latitudes and South Asia East (SAE), as well as Antarctic and Subantarctic (AS) regions, aerosols (31% for SAE and 37% for AS) emerged as significant albedo influencers. Other factors, such as snowline migration, debris cover, glacier algae growth, and dust accumulation, are also known to influence glacier albedo but were not explicitly modeled in this study. These findings underscore the criticality of bespoke climate adaptation strategies, particularly addressing aerosol impacts, and reinforce the urgent need for a cohesive, global approach to glacier darkening and melt mitigation and protection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 324-336"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding water flowpaths and origins in an Arctic Alaskan basin: Implications for permafrost hydrology under global warming","authors":"Hyejung Jung ,&nbsp;Jinho Ahn ,&nbsp;Go Iwahana ,&nbsp;Jeonghoon Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming is progressing more rapidly in the Arctic compared with other regions of the world, and the increasing temperature has caused gradual permafrost thaw, resulting in significant changes in hydrological processes. However, the quantitative contributions of different water sources to Arctic watersheds under ongoing climate change remain poorly understood. Therefore, this study aims to address this gap by applying a water isotope-based mixing model to better quantify the sources and pathways of water flow in permafrost-affected catchments. In this study, isotopic and chemical data were used to determine the water sources and flowpaths of the Sagavanirktok (Sag) River on the North Slope in Alaska (USA) in the summer of 2022. Results obtained using a Bayesian mixing model indicate that meltwater from permafrost ice wedges contributes 17.7% upstream and 22.2% downstream to the Sag River. At the upstream with a frozen active layer or transient layer (including seasonal intrasediment ice), lower active layer water (mineral-rich) and upper active layer water (organic-rich) accounted for 31.5% and 18.1%, respectively. By contrast, at the downstream, the contribution of active layer water was 26.9%, which was similar to that of the other sources. The sources and flowpaths of Arctic freshwater affect changes in the geochemical characteristics of the freshwater, which is channeled to the Arctic Ocean through major Arctic rivers. This study quantitatively assesses permafrost ice wedge melt in an Arctic basin and provides insights to facilitate investigations of hydrological processes and geochemical changes associated with climate change in Arctic water systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 361-372"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution of supraglacial lakes over the pan-Antarctic ice sheet between 2014 and 2022: Assessment and the control factors","authors":"Xiao-Yi Shen ,&nbsp;Chang-Qing Ke ,&nbsp;Hai-Li Li ,&nbsp;Yu Cai ,&nbsp;Yao Xiao ,&nbsp;Meng-Meng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Widespread supraglacial lakes (SGLs) across the Antarctic surface can accelerate land ice flow and be linked to ice shelf disintegration, further affecting sea-level rise projections. However, previous studies usually focused on SGLs at regional scale or some typical ice shelves, and underestimated the distribution and area of SGLs. Thus, the current Antarctic-wide SGL distribution and variability information is still limited, and the present status and possible influence on ice shelf stability are also largely unknown. Here, we used more than 110,000 Landsat 8 images to detect SGLs across Antarctica (north of 83°S) in austral summer from 2014 to 2022 by using a well-constructed threshold-based method. Overall, most SGLs were located on ice shelves, covering 79% of the total area; the largest SGL areas were found in East Antarctica (79%, 2222 km²), far exceeding the SGL areas in Antarctic Peninsula (20%, 473 km²) and West Antarctica (1%, 23 km²). SGL area gains and declines were found in the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica, respectively, while East Antarctica experienced relatively high interannual variabilities due to the presence of some ice shelves with asynchronous variation patterns. Larger collapse risks are found for smaller ice shelves; ice shelves in East Antarctica are relatively unstable, and disintegration risk is increasing for some ice shelves in Antarctic Peninsula. Glaciological factors are closely related to the location of SGLs, and temperature, precipitation and winds are strongly linked to SGL evolution. This study is expected to enhance the reliability of existing Antarctic SGL dataset by providing a more comprehensive dataset, and offer detailed insights into the relationship between SGLs, climatic factors, and near-surface conditions. Additionally, it examines the risks of ice shelf collapse caused by SGLs, which is essential for understanding the SGL dynamics and their impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 337-349"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan","authors":"Muhammad Ramzan ,&nbsp;Peng Cui ,&nbsp;Daniya Ualiyeva ,&nbsp;Hamza Mukhtar ,&nbsp;Nazir Ahmed Bazai ,&nbsp;Muhammad Aslam Baig","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Landslides, which are aggravated by climate change, greatly threaten mountainous regions like northern Pakistan. However, existing research lacks a complete, region-specific analysis of the climatic and environmental factors driving landslides across various climatic zones, specifically in vulnerable areas such as northern Pakistan. This study explores the N-15 Highway in northern Pakistan. This region is frequently impacted by landslides induced by extreme climatic events, including heavy rainfall and flooding, which usually lead to blockages along the route. We collected a complete landslide inventory using 455 satellite images from 1990 to 2023 and ground surveys. We also analysed the relationship between landslides and climate change over the period of 1990–2023, encompassing soil moisture, vegetation, precipitation, temperature and snow cover. Using meteorological data, we found that the frequency of landslides rose exponentially from 1990 to 2023 due to the impacts of climate change. Especially after 2005, substantial increases in precipitation, temperature and snowmelt led to a more significant rise in landslide occurrences (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). In the warm season (April–October), 84.1% of the landslides occurred, which were mainly due to precipitation and snowmelt. Balakot, Babusar–Naran and Chilas were the primary areas along the highway, each with distinct landslide mechanisms. In the Balakot region, which is characterised by sub-tropical conditions, high precipitation played the leading role in landslide occurrences. Landslides at Babusar–Naran, which is known for Alpine conditions, were mostly driven by precipitation, soil moisture fluctuations and snowmelt dynamics. Geological reasons and high temperatures influenced the Chilas region, which is characterised by semi-arid conditions. The EC-Earth3 model from CMIP6 predicts a 1.6–6.5 °C warming and a 35% rise in precipitation by 2100, with more extreme variations under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These changes are likely to result in a rise in the frequency of landslides. We suggest improving ground observation networks and utilising multiple datasets to better understand the relationship between landslides and climatic variables, which enables highly accurate risk assessment and management in high-mountain areas under the warming climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 397-408"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the combined effect of China's restarting of the CCER market: Coupling of CGE and GAINS models","authors":"Yuan-Ying Chi ,&nbsp;Yang-Yi Zhang ,&nbsp;Bao-Liu Liu ,&nbsp;Meng-Wan Zhang ,&nbsp;Jia-Lin Li ,&nbsp;Guo-Zheng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China's relaunch of the Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) market is essential to the operation of the carbon emission trading market. Traditional single policy effect evaluation models cannot comprehensively reflect the economic and environmental impacts brought about by China's restart of the CCER market. To effectively assess the comprehensive policy effects of introducing the CCER into the carbon trading mechanism in the power industry, it is necessary to construct a coupled model for policy effect evaluation. Therefore, against the backdrop of China's restart of the CCER market and utilizing China's 2020 input–output table, we have developed a comprehensive assessment model. This model couples a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model with a greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies model to analyze the effects of introducing CCERs into the carbon trading mechanism in the power industry on the economy, energy, residents' welfare, and environmental health. Results show that restarting the CCER market leads to a gradual increase in the gap between the price of carbon allowances and the price of CCERs. Carbon trading and the CCER mechanism exert a considerable inhibiting effect on the growth of total energy consumption, and the proportion of nonfossil energy on the consumption side is forecasted to exceed 80% by 2060. In terms of residents' welfare, the introduction of CCERs into the carbon trading mechanism does not substantially improve the welfare level of residents but drastically reduces the level of residents' carbon emissions. Furthermore, this study confirms that CCER restart can successfully stimulate pollutant emission reduction and effectively reduce the number of attributable deaths, which in turn enhances health benefits. We also provide targeted recommendations for the restart of the CCER market regarding the proportion of CCER offsets, the structure of population consumption, and regional emission reduction policies to help facilitate the smooth operation of the carbon trading market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 433-445"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}