Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Economic impacts of sea level rise on China's coastal provinces under different adaptation strategies","authors":"Tian-Peng Wang ,&nbsp;Fei Teng ,&nbsp;Wen-Tian Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a country with some of the world's largest and most economically dynamic coastal regions, China faces rising threats from sea level rise. However, the lack of high-resolution, quantitative assessments of sea level rise impacts for China limits the development of effective adaptation policies in a region critical to global economic stability. To address this gap, this study refines and applies the Python Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (pyCIAM) to evaluate multiple adaptation options along China's segmented coastline. The model integrates coastal elevation, sea level rise projections, and capital and population trajectories to estimate economic impacts under different adaptation strategies. The results show that locally optimized adaptation strategies can reduce the cumulative losses by 2100 from 4.5 trillion USD under no adaptation to &lt;0.9 trillion USD nationwide. Flexible strategies that adjust in real time reduce losses by up to 86%, offering both responsiveness and cost-efficiency. The reduction in losses is especially notable in economically developed provinces such as Shanghai (95%), Jiangsu (91%), and Zhejiang (89%), where dense populations and high-value assets increase the benefits of effective adaptation. These insights emphasize the necessity for integrating China's coastal economic and geographic details into adaptation strategies to optimize sea level rise responses and strengthen coastal resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 688-697"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geographic trends in asthma risk among children and adolescents across climate zones in Australia, 2004–2018","authors":"Jialu Wang ,&nbsp;Javier Cortes-Ramirez ,&nbsp;Wenbiao Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the known regional variations in childhood and adolescent asthma prevalence across Australia, the complex interactions between geographic location, climate diversity, and asthma risk patterns remain critically underexplored. This study examined spatial patterns of asthma prevalence among children and adolescents (2004–2018) by analysing data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, categorized according to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system, which integrates environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation patterns to represent broader climatic conditions. We employed spatial clustering, survey-weighted logistic regression, and classification and regression tree analysis to identify region-specific risk factors. Results revealed distinct spatial patterns with ‘high-high’ clusters concentrated in southeastern Australia’s BSk (arid, steppe, cold), Cfa (temperate, no dry season, hot summer), and Cfb (temperate, no dry season, warm summer) climate. Male children (odds ratio (OR): 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06–1.52) with maternal depression (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.16–1.69) and a parental asthma history (OR: 2.96; 95% CI: 2.58–3.41) showed significantly elevated risk, while breastfeeding beyond six months corresponded with reduced risk (OR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.62–0.86). ‘Low-low’ clusters were observed in the Cfa zone. Risk factor importance varied by climate zone, with breastfeeding duration being most notable in the Aw (tropical, savannah) zone and age 2 emerging as a key threshold in several zones. These findings enable more precise identification of high-risk populations and climate-sensitive regions, supporting the development of targeted preventive strategies and climate-based early warning systems that will enhance asthma management effectiveness and reduce healthcare burdens across Australia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 613-622"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An integrated modelling framework for evaluating the synergistic impacts of low-carbon transitions and air pollution controls on air quality and health in Guangzhou, China","authors":"Yun Shu ,&nbsp;Yang Li ,&nbsp;Yazhen Wu ,&nbsp;Xiang-Zhao Feng ,&nbsp;Sha-Sha Xu ,&nbsp;Ya-Li Wang ,&nbsp;Tong Ma ,&nbsp;Jian-Hua Chen ,&nbsp;Jian Gao ,&nbsp;Shaohui Zhang ,&nbsp;Ji-Zhang Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate policies that target carbon emissions can induce co-benefits for air quality. Previous urban studies have typically focused on either carbon reduction or air pollution control independently, but few have examined their combined effects on reducing carbon emissions and consequential environmental gains. We develop an integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of different low-carbon transitions and end-of-pipe controls on PM_2.5 and ozone concentrations and associated premature mortality in the megacity of Guangzhou. The results show that the implementation of both deep carbon mitigation and aggressive air pollution control policies can reduce the city's pollutant emissions to 34%–51% of the 2020 levels by 2035. Consequently, the population-weighted PM_2.5 concentration in 2035 is projected to decrease by 5 μg/m³ compared to the 2035 baseline scenario. However, the ozone concentration is expected to rise by 35 μg/m³ due to the reduced titration effect of NO on ozone. These changes are estimated to prevent approximately 3.0 thousand (95% CI: 2.0–3.9) PM_2.5-related premature deaths, while increasing ozone-related premature deaths by approximately 1.6 thousand (95% CI: 0.7–2.7). Moreover, implementing multiregional integrated control measures in Guangzhou and its neighbouring cities yields greater air quality and health benefits for Guangzhou compared to local enforcement alone, resulting in 1.5 times more avoided PM_2.5-related premature deaths. Additionally, the increase in ozone-related premature deaths from these cooperative emission control strategies is merely 0.3 times the figure observed under local enforcement alone. The transport and industry sectors play a crucial role in reducing air pollutant emissions, whereas reductions in the solvent use sector can help mitigate the adverse effects of reduced NO_x on ozone pollution. These findings highlight the need for comprehensively multiregional strategies to balance the trade-offs between reducing PM_2.5 and ozone-related health impacts, offering valuable insights for urban policy makers aiming to optimize both climate and air quality goals on a broader scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 636-650"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recent warming trends in Antarctica revealed by multiple reanalysis","authors":"Sai Wang ,&nbsp;Guan-Cheng Li ,&nbsp;Zi-Huan Zhang ,&nbsp;Wen-Qian Zhang ,&nbsp;Xin Wang ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen ,&nbsp;Wen Chen ,&nbsp;Ming-Hu Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The lack of long-term <em>in-situ</em> observations hampers our ability to fully understand climate change in Antarctica. State-of-the-art reanalysis datasets fill a critical gap, and this study utilizes the ensemble mean from five reanalysis datasets to examine temperature changes and their associated mechanisms in Antarctica. The findings reveal that the entire Antarctic continent has experienced significant warming from 1980 to 2023, with a statistically significant warming rate of 0.12 °C per decade at the 0.05 level. Further analysis suggests that the warming in Antarctica is primarily driven by thermodynamic processes, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.22 °C per decade. In contrast, dynamic processes have caused an overall cooling of the Antarctic continent at a rate of −0.10 °C per decade, partially offsetting the effects of thermodynamic processes. Additionally, the ensemble mean confirms a notable shift in temperature trends in the early 2000s. Finally, the study shows that in East Antarctica, dynamic processes primarily drive the shift in temperature trends, while in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, thermodynamic processes are the main contributors. This research offers valuable insights into the complexities and mechanisms of climate change in Antarctica, emphasizing the importance of accurate predictions for future changes in this critical region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 447-459"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global prevalence of compound heatwaves from 1980 to 2022","authors":"Kun Zhang ,&nbsp;Jin-Bao Li ,&nbsp;Michael Kwok-Po Ng ,&nbsp;Zheng-Fei Guo ,&nbsp;Amos P.K. Tai ,&nbsp;Shu-Wen Liu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Rong Wang ,&nbsp;Jie Zhang ,&nbsp;Jin Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming has led to increasing occurrence of hot extremes, yet our understanding of the compound heatwaves (CHW) of both day and night—the most threatening and harmful type—remains limited. Here we use the air temperature from ERA5-Land datasets to analyze key characteristics of global CHW from 1980 to 2022. Our results demonstrate a pronounced increase in global CHW, with an annual cumulative intensity rising by 3.32 °C per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.001), approximately four times greater than the increases observed in individual heatwave types of daytime (0.73 °C per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.001) and nighttime (0.78 °C per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.001), respectively. High latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the Arctic regions, have experienced the highest increases in CHW (&gt;10 °C per decade), especially since 2005. Moreover, interannual variations of CHW are closely linked to major climate modes, displaying strong region-specific connections and varied lagged effect, particularly with ENSO and PDO in tropical regions. Altogether, these results reveal the unexpected prevalence of CHW in recent decades, emphasizing the urgent need to address its potential adverse impacts on human and ecosystem well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 565-575"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Life cycle CO2 emissions of various transformers under different scenarios with multiple functional units","authors":"Chao Liu ,&nbsp;Bo Miao ,&nbsp;Shu-Zhen Li ,&nbsp;Wan-Shui Yu ,&nbsp;Qiu-Jie Yuan ,&nbsp;Yu-Wei Cao ,&nbsp;Yang Yu ,&nbsp;Qing Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive research on transformer life cycle carbon emissions, the selection of an appropriate functional unit remains challenging. Many commonly used functional units inadequately reflect transformer functionalities, hindering accurate comparisons across different voltage levels and capacities. This study performs a life cycle carbon emission analysis to evaluate the impact of different functional unit settings on ten transformers. The average emission per studied transformer is 223.47 t CO₂eq. Carbon emission varies remarkably based on the choice of the functional unit, with values of 6955.40 kg CO₂eq/MVA, 9.83 kg CO₂eq/(MVA kV), 81.08 kg CO₂eq/(kW h) and 1.36 × 10⁻⁴ kg CO₂eq/(MW h kV). Metals are identified as the primary contributors to the overall carbon footprint of transformers, accounting for approximately 73.91% of total emissions, with steel contributing up to 42.98%. Selecting greener raw materials, employing recycled materials and using clean energy in production can help reduce transformer carbon emissions. Scenario analysis reveals that improvements in the electricity generation mix reduce emissions during transformer production by 9%–11%, depending on the level of improvement, with larger improvements demonstrating greater reduction rates. The findings of this study provide insights for selecting appropriate functional units for the carbon assessments of transformers and offer a reference for formulating targeted emission reduction strategies to support the power sector's low-carbon transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 651-662"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change would largely offset labor capacity increment fueled by China’s two-child policy","authors":"Yun-Yun Ban ,&nbsp;Qiu-Hong Tang ,&nbsp;Xing-Cai Liu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Jie Li ,&nbsp;Robin Clark ,&nbsp;Yi-Jia Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s implemented two-child policy (TCP) was aimed at countering the economic challenges posed by an aging population. However, the impact of climate change on the goal of this policy remains uncertain. This study examines how climate change induced heat stress may impact the productivity of the working-age population, measured as total working hours as a result of the TCP. The TCP is projected to increase total working hours of China by 12%–19% under three scenarios compared to the previous one-child policy during 2071–2100. This increase is completely negated by a 19%–29% decrease in the total working hours induced by reduction in labor capacity from heat stress under climate warming. Specifically, compared to the one-child policy (OCP) in the 2071–2100, the total working hours shows the largest increase of 19% contributed by TCP but it can decrease by 9% if climate change is considered under the SSP370 scenario. Likewise, the TCP benefits can be totally offset by climate change which finally leads to 6% and 11% less than OCP under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Climate change’s adverse effects are particularly pronounced (30% or larger decrease in the total working hours under SSP370) in eastern and southern China, which has the most developed economy. Given China’s labor-intensive economic model, this study underscores the need for urgent mitigation strategies to safeguard the nation’s future economic well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 606-612"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of human activities and low-frequency climate variability on East Asian temperature changes at century scale","authors":"Chun-Hui Lu ,&nbsp;Ying Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>East Asia is one of the most densely populated regions in the world. Understanding the human causes of temperature changes, especially at the century scale, is important for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, the attribution study of extreme temperature remains inadequate because of limited observational data from early historical periods. Here, we utilise multiple observational data and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to investigate the influence of external forcing and low-frequency climate variability from sea surface temperature on the changes in daily maximum (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and their difference (diurnal temperature range, DTR) during the period of 1901–2020. We find that the warming trends in East Asia differ across seasons, with the warming magnitudes in spring and winter greater than those in the other two seasons. Detection and attribution based on an optimal fingerprinting method show that anthropogenic forcing mainly explains the observed changes in Tmax and Tmin during 1901–2020. Greenhouse gas forcing contributes approximately 1.1 °C (90% confidence intervals (CI): 0.78–1.3 °C) and 1.4 °C (90% CI: 1.19–1.58 °C) of annual Tmax and Tmin changes, while the anthropogenic aerosol forcing offsets 0.47 °C (90% CI: 0.15–0.92 °C) and 0.4 °C (90% CI: 0.07–0.77 °C) of the warming. For the DTR, the anthropogenic signal could not be detected due to the small signal-to-noise ratio. Meanwhile, the effects of the low-frequency climate variability coming from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are small and mainly attributed to the warming of the Atlantic Ocean induced by global change. This attribution information strengthens the scientific basis and helps decision-makers develop effective strategies and plans.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 576-590"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of solar radiation modification on precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia: Insights from the GeoMIP G6 experiments","authors":"Ze-Qian Feng ,&nbsp;Mou Leong Tan ,&nbsp;Liew Juneng ,&nbsp;Mari R. Tye ,&nbsp;Li-Li Xia ,&nbsp;Fei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed to reduce global temperatures by reflecting more solar radiation into space, but its effects on precipitation extremes across Southeast Asia remain uncertain. This study evaluates the impacts of two SRM strategies on precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia, using the multi-model ensemble mean from five climate models in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), two SRM approaches are tested: injecting sulfur dioxide (G6sulfur) into the stratosphere and reducing the solar constant (G6solar) to maintain radiative forcing at the level of a moderate-emission scenario (SSP245). Bilinear interpolation and linear scaling were used to downscale and bias-correct daily precipitation data before calculating precipitation extreme indices, respectively. The results show that G6sulfur causes more regional variation in annual total and mean wet day precipitation, the average daily precipitation on days with ≥1 mm rainfall, compared to G6solar. In areas like central Borneo, northern mainland Southeast Asia, and eastern Indonesia, the annual maximum 1-d precipitation per year is projected to increase by 30%–50% under SSP585 relative to the historical 1995–2014 baseline period but this rise could be reduced to around 20% by SSP245, G6sulfur, or G6solar. G6sulfur has less influence on continuous wet and dry spells than G6solar, yielding results closer to SSP585. Both SRM strategies lower the projected increase in heavy precipitation days, except in areas like East Coast Peninsular Malaysia, Nusantara Indonesia, and East Timor. In conclusion, SRM may effectively mitigate increases in extreme precipitation events in most of Southeast Asia, but G6solar provides a more consistent reduction, while G6sulfur shows more complex spatial responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 591-605"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variations of soil thermal conductivity in the Three-River Source Region, Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau","authors":"Jia Liu ,&nbsp;Dong-Liang Luo ,&nbsp;Wen-Jie Lei ,&nbsp;Fang-Fang Chen ,&nbsp;Rui-Xia He ,&nbsp;Cheng-Song Yang ,&nbsp;Yan Lu ,&nbsp;Shi-Zhen Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The ongoing permafrost degradation in the Three-River Source Region (TRSR) poses serious threats to ecosystems, water resources, and infrastructure projects. As the China Water Tower and a vital barrier for the high-altitude ecological security of China, the TRSR is particularly vulnerable to such changes. The extent and severity of permafrost degradation are primarily governed by heat transfer dynamics, with soil thermal conductivity (STC) playing a crucial role in regulating thermal equilibrium. However, research on STC is hindered by insufficient <em>in-situ</em> measurements. To address this gap, we conducted <em>in-situ</em> measurements of STC at soil depths of 0–40 cm across 58 plots at 12 sites in the TRSR (244 records) during July and August 2023. The driving mechanisms influencing STC variations were further analyzed through laboratory experiments in September and October 2023. Spatially, STC increases from west to east and vertically with soil depth. Control experiments revealed that STC at negative temperatures is markedly higher than that at positive temperatures and increases with volumetric moisture content, particularly in inorganic soils, sand and loamy sand. This effect is more pronounced at subzero temperatures. Meanwhile, our results show that an artificial neural network model (<em>R</em>² = 0.78, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.0001) incorporating ten measured soil physical parameters, outperforms traditional theoretical and empirical models in predicting STC. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of permafrost formation, evolution, and its responses to climate change in the TRSR.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 552-564"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}