不同多重 GCM 集合对东南亚未来降水量变化的动力和热动力成分的相对贡献

IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Sheau Tieh Ngai , Srivatsan V. Raghavan , Jing Xiang Chung , Bhenjamin Jordan Ona , Lucian Taft Kimbrell , Ngoc Son Nguyen , Thanh-Hung Nguyen , Senfeng Liu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了弥补在了解东南亚降水变化方面的差距,并通过水分预算分析提高该地区气候预测的可靠性,本研究从水分预算分析的角度研究了 CMIP6 模拟降水的六个多模式集合之间的差异。它研究了在最高排放情景 SSP5-8.5 下,热动力和动力成分对东南亚地区季节性降水变化的相对贡献。集合之间的比较表明,性能良好的模式集合在减少偏差方面略优于所有分辨率和所有类别集合的组合。在模拟历史季节性降水的空间模式方面,没有强有力的证据表明良好类别的模式集合优于所有模式集合的组合。从水汽收支的角度来看,季节性高降水强度地区主要受季风季节水汽辐合的影响:东北季风(12 月-1 月-2 月)和西南季风(6 月-7 月-8 月)。到 21 世纪晚期(2081-2100 年),所有模式集合预测均显示东南亚北部 12 月-1 月-2 月降水量增加,而南部地区 6 月-7 月-8 月降水量减少。水汽收支分析表明,东南亚季节平均降雨量的变化主要受蒸发的影响,其次是受水汽通量辐合的影响。水汽通量辐合的变化由动力和热动力两部分造成。与热力学部分相比,降水动态部分的模型间不确定性更大,这表明全球气候模型在描述大气动力学时所采用的各种方法之间存在巨大差异。研究强调,与所有良好模式集合的组合相比,中低分辨率的良好模式集合能够在水汽收支分析方面缩小模式间的不确定性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Relative contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic components on Southeast Asia future precipitation changes from different multi-GCM ensemble members
To address the gap in understanding precipitation changes in Southeast Asia and to enhance the reliability of climate projections for the region through moisture budget analysis, this study examines the differences among six multi-model ensembles of CMIP6 simulated precipitation in term of moisture budget analysis. It investigates the relative contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic components to seasonal precipitation changes over Southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario, SSP5-8.5. The comparison between ensembles indicates that Good performance model ensembles slightly outperform the combination of all resolution and all category ensembles in reducing the biases. There is no strong evidence showing that good category ensembles outperform the combination of all model ensemble groups in simulating the spatial pattern of historical seasonal precipitation. From the perspective of moisture budget, regions receiving seasonal high rainfall intensity are mainly influenced by the moisture convergence during the monsoon seasons: northeast monsoon (December‒January‒February) and southwest monsoon (June–July–August). By the late 21st century (2081–2100), all model ensemble projections show an increase in December‒January‒February precipitation over the northern Southeast Asia and decreased June‒July‒August rainfall in the southern regions. The moisture budget analysis explained that the seasonal mean rainfall change in Southeast Asia is largely influenced by evaporation and followed by moisture flux convergence. The changes in moisture flux convergence are contributed by both the dynamic and thermodynamic components. Greater inter-model uncertainty was found in the precipitation dynamic component compared to the thermodynamic component suggesting the existence of large discrepancy between the various approaches used by GCMs in describing atmospheric dynamics. The study highlights that the Good model ensemble with middle to low resolution is able to narrow the inter-model uncertainties in terms of the moisture budget analysis compared to the combination of all Good model ensembles.
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来源期刊
Advances in Climate Change Research
Advances in Climate Change Research Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
4.10%
发文量
424
审稿时长
107 days
期刊介绍: Advances in Climate Change Research publishes scientific research and analyses on climate change and the interactions of climate change with society. This journal encompasses basic science and economic, social, and policy research, including studies on mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Advances in Climate Change Research attempts to promote research in climate change and provide an impetus for the application of research achievements in numerous aspects, such as socioeconomic sustainable development, responses to the adaptation and mitigation of climate change, diplomatic negotiations of climate and environment policies, and the protection and exploitation of natural resources.
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