Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Identifying practical adaptations to health risks from extreme weather events for multi-actors","authors":"Meng-Zhen Zhao ,&nbsp;Chi Zhang ,&nbsp;Wen-Jia Cai ,&nbsp;Zhen-Pin Zhao ,&nbsp;Bo Lu ,&nbsp;Tian-Tian Li ,&nbsp;Cong-Kai Hong ,&nbsp;Wei-Yi Liao ,&nbsp;Jifei Chen ,&nbsp;Shang-Chen Zhang ,&nbsp;Jin-Jie Sun ,&nbsp;Jing Shang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To address escalating health risk posed by extreme weather due to climate change, it’s particularly important to identify tailored adaptation measures for various actors, enabling them to respond quickly and effectively. However, there remains a lack of clarity on the specific and comprehensive actions each actor should take. This study first establishes an adaptation action framework to delineate a pathway for implementing adaptation measures, encompassing integrated monitoring, risk assessment, risk warning, policy response, effectiveness evaluation, and capacity building. Within this framework, the study identifies practical adaptation action lists tailored to various actors---governments, healthcare facilities, communities, and individuals. These actions include establishing multisectoral coordination mechanisms, conducting health risk assessments, promoting telemedicine, utilizing wearable health devices, and more. Furthermore, this study reviews the progress of adaptations to health risks associated with climate change, revealing that national and regional adaptation plans are increasingly being implemented, early warning systems are becoming more precise and informative, and adaptation knowledge-sharing initiatives are continuously evolving and innovating. However, three significant challenges persist in areas such as intersectoral collaboration, awareness gaps, and insufficient financing. Overall, this study provides a clear path for actors to develop and implementing comprehensive strategies to mitigate the health risks posed by climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 698-707"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying the impact of infrastructure-based urban adaptation strategies on summer air temperature and heat exposure risk in Chinese cities","authors":"Jing Shang ,&nbsp;Lin Pei ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen ,&nbsp;Shi-Guang Miao ,&nbsp;Yi-Zhou Zhang ,&nbsp;Xi-Ya Zhang ,&nbsp;Wen-Jia Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Infrastructure-based heat reduction strategies, such as using cool building materials (high albedo) and street greenery, can be effective methods for cooling cities. However, the effectiveness of different measures on near-surface air temperature and population heat exposure in cities remains unclear. This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the single-layer urban canopy model and conducted one control and four urban adaptation strategy simulations (cool roof, green roof, urban tree and full adaptation) with a convection-permitting scale of 3 km in eastern China during the warm season of 2022. Our findings reveal that these strategies notably decreased 2 m air temperature, with averaged cooling effects of daily air temperature in 37 cities reaching −0.4 °C (cool roof), −0.3 °C (green roof), −0.2 °C (urban tree) and −0.6 °C (full adaptation). The cooling effects in cities illustrated notable regional characteristics; that is, they were stronger in Central China, East China, South China and North China but weaker in Southwest, Northwest and Northeast. Based on the results of multiple linear regression, we attributed the dominant climate factor of each measure: Bowen ratio for cool roof and urban tree and full adaptation and downward shortwave flux for green roof. In addition, urban adaptation strategies greatly reduced extreme heat hours in 37 cities, with averages of 67 (cool roof), 47 (green roof), 22 (urban tree) and 88 h (full adaptation). Furthermore, urban adaptation strategies substantially reduced population heat exposure in populated cities, such as Shanghai (2.48 billion person-h), Guangzhou (1.48 billion person-h), Beijing (1.26 billion person-h) and Shenzhen (1.17 billion person-h). In summary, urban cooling measures can notably decrease air temperature and reduce heat exposure risk during the warm season in cities but vary in their effectiveness in various cities, which highlights the need for region-specific approaches for adaptation to climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 708-717"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multispecies conservation corridors in China: For climate change adaptation","authors":"Pan Wang ,&nbsp;Shu-Lin Yu ,&nbsp;Ren-Qiang Li ,&nbsp;Zeng-Ming Song ,&nbsp;Jia-Quan Duan ,&nbsp;Zhen Xu ,&nbsp;Le-Hua Ning ,&nbsp;Jiang-Chao Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The development of climate-adaptive migration corridors has emerged as a key strategy for biodiversity conservation. However, most existing studies focus on the migration patterns and adaptability of a few species and barely pay attention to the design of migration corridors that address multispecies needs at a national scale under climate change. In this study, we analysed 1023 nationally protected wildlife species in China to predict their potential distributions under current climatic conditions and the SSP2-4.5 scenario using the maximum entropy model. The projections were used as a base to conduct hotspot analysis to identify areas with declining, stable or increasing habitat selection rates (HSRs), which were designated as ecological sources. These areas correspond to regions likely to experience species emigration, retention or immigration. Using circuit theory and the minimum cumulative resistance model, we employed the Linkage Mapper tool to construct climate-resilient conservation corridors and identify critical ecological nodes. We identified 49 ecological sources, including 19 ecological sources with declining HSRs, 13 ecological sources with stable HSRs and 17 ecological sources with increasing HSRs. These HSRs collectively covered over 90% of the studied species and demonstrated a strong conservation representativeness. We also mapped 108 migration corridors, including 49 supporting species movement from areas with declining HSRs and 59 enhancing connectivity and species exchange. In addition, we identified 978 ecological pinch points and 203 barrier points, which are critical priorities for future corridor planning. A novel framework for the design of multispecies conservation corridors that support climate change adaptation, which contributes to China's efforts to achieve the Kunming–Montreal Biodiversity Framework targets and improve ecosystem connectivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 762-774"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulated terrestrial climate and carbon cycle response to cloud albedo enhancement over ocean and land","authors":"Yu Fang,&nbsp;Long Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed as a backup method to mitigate some impacts of global warming. Cloud albedo can be increased over ocean or land either intentionally or unintentionally. Our understanding of how the climate response differs between cloud albedo enhancement over ocean and land remains limited. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to explore the impact of cloud albedo enhancement over either ocean or land on the terrestrial climate and carbon cycle. In our simulation design, both MCB and land cloud brightening (LCB) are applied over the latitude bands of 30°S‒30°N under atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 800 × 10⁻⁶ to achieve a net negative radiative forcing of about −1 W/m². Over large parts of the low latitude land, MCB increases precipitation by enhancing upward atmospheric motion, resulting in increased soil moisture. In contrast, LCB decreases precipitation by inducing subsidence, resulting in decreased soil moisture. Changes in climatic factors affect land gross primary production (GPP). Relative to the high CO₂ world, LCB reduces GPP by 3.80 ± 0.09 GtC per year, which is about three times the reduction caused by MCB (1.34 ± 0.10 GtC per year). These differences in GPP responses are closely linked to changes in the hydrological cycle. In large parts of low-latitude regions, MCB increases soil moisture, which acts to enhance GPP. Conversely, LCB reduces soil moisture, which acts to suppress GPP. MCB and LCB-induced changes in temperature, sunlight, and vapor pressure deficit also play important roles in regulating GPP change. This study would help us to better understand terrestrial climate and carbon cycle consequences resulting from large-scale cloud albedo change over either ocean or land, as well as large-scale albedo change over ocean and land surface.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 800-812"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What determines provincial carbon emission reduction performance in China? A study on co-movement effect based on QCA","authors":"Yong-long Cheng ,&nbsp;Xian-chun Tan ,&nbsp;Hong-shuo Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Provincial carbon emission reduction performance (CERP) evaluation is crucial for China's climate change mitigation efforts. However, existing research lacks an in-depth exploration of the conditions and mechanisms enhancing provincial CERP. This study evaluates provincial CERP during the 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period in China using a comprehensive evaluation method and identifies four antecedent conditions influencing CERP based on provincial policy practices: industrial structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement, energy structure optimization, and supporting mechanisms enhancement. Using the qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method, this study reveals the complex causal mechanisms driving provincial CERP: 1) single conditions are insufficient to determine high/low CERP, as it results from the co-movement of multiple conditions; 2) there are multiple pathways to achieve high CERP, each requiring the interaction of multiple conditions; 3) different types of provinces have different pathways to high CERP. Specifically, resource-abundant provinces have two pathways to high CERP, where substantial optimization of energy structure is necessary. Resource-lacking provinces have three pathways to high CERP, where substantial improvement in energy efficiency is necessary; and 4) multiple pathways leading to low CERP, all asymmetrically related to those for high CERP. These findings highlight varied pathways to high CERP, offering tailored emission reduction strategies for different provinces.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 858-870"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change and threatened species conservation in China: Impacts and adaptation strategies","authors":"Shu-Lin Yu ,&nbsp;Pan Wang ,&nbsp;Ren-Qiang Li ,&nbsp;Zeng-Ming Song ,&nbsp;Jiang-Chao Liu ,&nbsp;Zhen Xu ,&nbsp;Le-Hua Ning ,&nbsp;Jia-Quan Duan ,&nbsp;Pei-Li Shi ,&nbsp;Er-Hu Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change-induced range shifts in species pose a profound challenge to biodiversity conservation. China has recently updated its list of key protected species, encompassing 980 wildlife species and 455 plant species. However, the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution patterns of these species remain unclear, inevitably hindering the formulation of effective and adaptive conservation strategies. This study combines species distribution models with gap analysis to examine the negative and positive impacts of climate change on 1023 key protected species. We assessed species extinction risks, identified conservation gaps and effectiveness, and proposed adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Our findings indicate that under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, 5, 28, and 83 species, respectively, would face high extinction risks with universal dispersal by the end of the 21st century. Plants generally exhibit higher habitat loss rates and extinction risks than animals. Among animal taxa, amphibians exhibit the highest extinction risks and habitat loss rates, with notably lower habitat gain and habitat remain rates compared to other groups. Geographically, species in Central China and Northeast China are at the highest risk of extinction, whereas the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau, Northwest China, and South China experience relatively lower risks. Although the current protected area network provides adequate coverage for the majority of target species, a notable conservation gap (&gt;25%) persists for 115 species. Under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios with universal dispersal, the average species turnover rates within protected areas are 36.29%, 43.29%, and 51.10%, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. This study highlights the need for dynamic conservation and adaptation strategies in the context of climate change, offering essential insights for achieving the 30 × 30 conservation target and developing long-term effective adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 775-786"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Buried depth of retained meltwater in polar ice sheets detected by multi-source microwave remote sensing observations","authors":"Xin-Yi Shang ,&nbsp;Lei Zheng ,&nbsp;Qi Liang ,&nbsp;Teng Li ,&nbsp;Xiao Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent discoveries of perennial retained meltwater, firn aquifers (FA), in the firn layer of Wilkins Ice Shelf (WIS) and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) have significantly enhanced our understanding of surface hydrological processes and mass and energy balances. However, limited field and airborne radar observations cannot provide a comprehensive picture of the distribution and characteristics of these aquifers. The dominative factors for FA formation (including surface snowmelt and snow accumulation) can be effectively captured by microwave remote sensing, which offers the possibility of linking FA burial depth with remote sensing data. In this study, the extent and depth to water table (DWT) of FA are investigated through the integration of multi-source microwave observations and airborne radar measurements. Using verification points from airborne radar, the extent of FA is first mapped based on satellite-derived snowmelt and accumulation variables using a K-Nearest Neighbors classification model. Subsequently, a Gaussian Process Regression model is used to estimate the DWT of FA, achieving correlation coefficients of 0.9 for the WIS and 0.73 for the GrIS. Furthermore, the FA exhibited a distinct concentration in the southeastern and southern basins of the GrIS, where a DWT of 22 ± 5 m. The temporal evolution of FA, including both spatial extent and vertical buried depth, requires ongoing monitoring to evaluate their potential impacts on englacial environment and the stability of ice sheet.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 813-829"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disease characteristics and mechanism in embankment with TPCTs of the Qinghai‒Tibet Highway in permafrost regions","authors":"Qin-Guo Ma ,&nbsp;Xiao-Jie Lin ,&nbsp;Yuan-Ming Lai ,&nbsp;Tian-Li Lan ,&nbsp;Pei-Feng He ,&nbsp;Xiao-Xiao Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Two-phase closed thermosyphons (TPCTs) is widely used in the Qinghai‒Tibet Highway (QTH) due to the excellent cooling efficiency. However, affected by the complex environment, climate warming and the strong heat absorption of asphalt pavement, diseases still exist in the embankments with TPCTs. Taking 31 sections of embankments with TPCTs along the QTH as the objects, we abstained the deformation law by adopting the Small Baseline Subset-Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR), and the influence of complex environment is evaluated. The results show that the average annual deformation rate of these 31 embankments with TPCTs is −4.077 ± 1.979 mm per year, and it is influenced by orientation, elevation, soil type, ice content, mean annual ground temperature, and TPCTs installing form. The main diseases are longitudinal cracking, transverse cracking and differential settlement. Longitudinal cracking mainly caused by uneven temperature distribution tends to occur in multiple lines on embankment with inclined TPCTs, while it appears as a single line on embankment with vertical TPCTs. Related to the uneven temperature distribution, fatigue damage caused by repeated freezing‒thawing action, traffic load and water infiltration, transverse cracking typically occurs in the high-temperature area between two adjacent TPCTs. The TPCTs installing form and the shady‒sunny slope effect promote the differential settlement. Severe differential settlement tends to occur from the sunny slope shoulder to the center of half pavement at sunny side on the embankments with inclined TPCTs, while less severe differential settlement is likely to occur from the sunny side to embankment center on the embankment with vertical TPCTs. These results are crucial for improving our understanding of the disease characteristics and mechanism of embankment with TPCTs in permafrost regions and ensuring long-term service safety for the Qinghai‒Tibet Highway.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 846-857"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global agricultural adaptation case database and trend analysis based on large language models","authors":"Jing-Wen ZHONG ,&nbsp;Xue-Yan ZHANG ,&nbsp;Xin MA","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Paris Agreement mandates that countries report on their adaptation efforts to evaluate the adequacy and effectiveness of these measures. Agriculture, a critical sector in climate change adaptation, benefits significantly from global case studies that provide evidence, share experiences, and disseminate knowledge. However, the rapid expansion of these case studies presents challenges in extracting and analyzing relevant information effectively. To address this, this study developed a question‒answering information extraction framework that combines geographic analysis with ChatGPT. Guided by the Systematic Evidence Synthesis (ROSES) review protocol, we established a comprehensive global database of agricultural adaptation cases from 2000 to 2024. This database includes key information such as case distribution, climate stressors, adaptation measures, cost-effectiveness, and constraints, aimed at identifying major trends in agricultural adaptation. Our findings reveal the following: 1) Natural language processing technologies, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), greatly enhance the efficiency and depth of extracting key information from adaptation cases. This advancement supports the frequent updating of the agricultural adaptation database. 2) There is a notable geographic imbalance in agricultural adaptation efforts globally. Adaptation cases are concentrated in central and southern Africa, southern Asia, Europe, and other regions. While there is diversity in responses to slow onset events, measures for extreme climate events are less common, indicating a gap in the sector's ability to address sudden and uncertain challenges. 3) Agricultural adaptation measures are evolving from individual technologies to more comprehensive approaches. The shift is from methods like crop improvement and irrigation adjustments to integrated measures such as climate-smart agriculture, conservation agriculture, and sustainable practices. These approaches collectively enhance adaptation capacity through technological, managerial, infrastructural, and biodiversity improvements, reflecting a deeper understanding and ongoing refinement of adaptation practices. This study highlights the significant potential of LLMs in improving the efficiency of information extraction and analysis for global adaptation research. It offers new methods for quickly summarizing adaptation cases in agriculture and potentially other fields, providing valuable insights and recommendations for global agricultural policymakers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 747-761"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk assessment and adaptation technologies for island biodiversity conservation in China under climate change","authors":"Ye-Ding Xia ,&nbsp;Ren-Qiang Li ,&nbsp;Jie-Jie Sun ,&nbsp;Shu-Lin Yu ,&nbsp;Ming Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Islands are critically important but inherently fragile due to their isolation and limited size. Climate change poses escalating threats to island biodiversity, comprehensive and spatially explicit assessments are still limited, hindering the development of targeted adaptation strategies. Here, we integrated species distribution modeling, inundation modeling, extinction risk analysis, and spatial prioritization to assess the risks to China's island biodiversity from climate change. We applied two scenarios—SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5—over 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 to evaluate the risks to five key taxa, namely amphibians, birds, mammals, reptiles, and vascular plants. Future climate change might result in an extinction rate of 11.6%, 5.5%, 11.9%, 12.0% and 11.9% for amphibians, birds, mammals, reptiles, and vascular plants respectively under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario and 19.0%, 8.9%, 20.6%, 19.6% and 20.6% respectively under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Additionally, 60 and 97 islands under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, are projected to lose at least one major taxonomic group by 2081–2100. High-risk zones, such as the islands near the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, are likely to face greater vulnerability than other islands in China. Our species- and island-specific results provide a scientific basis for developing targeted adaptation technologies, tailored to local island characteristics and species habitat dynamics. Recommended technologies include enhancing coastal engineering and restoring coastal shelter forest for island protection, expanding protected area networks for habitat preservation, and designating target habitat islands to support species relocation for high-risk species. Advanced monitoring technologies, such as AI-driven ecological sensors, are also critical for managing data-deficient and dynamic islands.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 787-799"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}