Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Environmental factors controlling soil warming and wetting during 2000–2020 in permafrost and non-permafrost regions across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau","authors":"Guo-An Yin ,&nbsp;Jing Luo ,&nbsp;Fu-Jun Niu ,&nbsp;Ming-Hao Liu ,&nbsp;Ze-Yong Gao ,&nbsp;Tian-Chun Dong ,&nbsp;Wei-Heng Ni","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has experienced rapid environmental changes, including climate warming and wetting, since the 1980s. These environmental changes significantly impact the shallow soil hydrothermal conditions, which have key roles in land–atmosphere feedback and ecosystem functions. However, the spatial variations and responses of soil hydrothermal conditions to environmental changes over the QTP with permafrost (PF) and seasonal frost (SF) remain unclear. In this study, we investigated the spatial variations in soil temperature (ST) and soil moisture (SM) changes over the QTP from 2000 to 2020 using 99 <em>in-situ</em> sites with observations at 4 depths (<em>i.e.</em> 10, 40, 100 and 200 cm). The main environmental controlling factors were further identified using a calibrated statistical model. Results showed that significant (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) soil warming occurred at multiple soil layers during 2000–2020 with a wide variation (<em>i.e.</em> 0.033–0.039 °C per year on average), whereas the warming rates at PF sites were two times greater than those at SF sites. In addition, the soil wetting rate was high over the SF region, whereas the soil wetting rate was low over the PF region. Aside from air temperature, changes in thawing degree days and solar radiation (Srad) contributed most to soil warming in the PF region, whereas changes in rainfall, Srad and evaporation (EVA) have been identified as the key factors in the SF region. As for soil wetting, changes in snowfall, freezing degree days and vegetation have noticeable nonlinear effects over the PF region, whereas changes in EVA, Srad and rainfall highlighted distinct linear and nonlinear effects in the SF region. These findings enhance our understanding of the hydrothermal impacts of future environmental changes over the QTP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 2","pages":"Pages 285-296"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824000042/pdfft?md5=b4fe843f0558bf85dee0bb4da7b08c34&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824000042-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139636387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multiscale spatiotemporal meteorological drought prediction: A deep learning approach","authors":"Jia-Li Zhang,&nbsp;Xiao-Meng Huang,&nbsp;Yu-Ze Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.04.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Reliable monitoring and thorough spatiotemporal prediction of meteorological drought are crucial for early warning and decision-making regarding drought-related disasters. The utilisation of multiscale methods is effective for a comprehensive evaluation of drought occurrence and progression, given the complex nature of meteorological drought. Nevertheless, the nonlinear spatiotemporal features of meteorological droughts, influenced by various climatological, physical and environmental factors, pose significant challenges to integrated prediction that considers multiple indicators and time scales. To address these constraints, we introduce an innovative deep learning framework based on the shifted window transformer, designed for executing spatiotemporal prediction of meteorological drought across multiple scales. We formulate four prediction indicators using the standardized precipitation index and the standard precipitation evaporation index as core methods for drought definition using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. These indicators span time scales of approximately 30 d and one season. Short-term indicators capture more anomalous variations, whereas long-term indicators attain comparatively higher accuracy in predicting future trends. We focus on the East Asian region, notable for its diverse climate conditions and intricate terrains, to validate the model's efficacy in addressing the complexities of nonlinear spatiotemporal prediction. The model's performance is evaluated from diverse spatiotemporal viewpoints, and practical application values are analysed by representative drought events. Experimental results substantiate the effectiveness of our proposed model in providing accurate multiscale predictions and capturing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought. Each of the four drought indicators accurately delineates specific facets of the meteorological drought trend. Moreover, three representative drought events, namely flash drought, sustained drought and severe drought, underscore the significance of selecting appropriate prediction indicators to effectively denote different types of drought events. This study provides methodological and technological support for using a deep learning approach in meteorological drought prediction. Such findings also demonstrate prediction issues related to natural hazards in regions with scarce observational data, complex topography and diverse microclimate systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 2","pages":"Pages 211-221"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824000534/pdfft?md5=96ebf6df744367aca0f8f7c4b8930e74&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824000534-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140793226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Challenges and countermeasures for developing countries in addressing loss and damage caused by climate change","authors":"Shuo Liu ,&nbsp;Yu-E Li ,&nbsp;Bin Wang ,&nbsp;An-Dong Cai ,&nbsp;Chao Feng ,&nbsp;Hua Lan ,&nbsp;Ruo-Chen Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.02.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Loss and damage caused by extreme climate events have attracted increasing attention. The 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (hereinafter referred to as the Convention) has agreed to adopt Loss and Damage Fund agreement, which identified the source of funding and the funds to be entrusted to the World Bank. However, there is still ambiguous that how to allocate the funds could accelerate the effectiveness of meeting the needs for developing countries. Pre-disaster prevention and preparedness is one of the most effective measures to deal with loss and damage, which closely related to adaptation. Previous studies rarely analyzed quantitatively the financial needs of pre-disaster prevention and preparedness relating to adaptation to reduce loss and damage. Based on the official reports submitted by countries under the Convention, this study analyzes the annual change in the total financial support provided by developed countries to developing countries, the proportion of pre-disaster prevention and preparedness in the adaptation needs of developing countries, and the progress in raising the current annual funding target of 100 billion USD for developed countries, to reveal the financial and technical challenges facing by developing countries on addressing loss and damage. The results show that by 2030, the total adaptation financial needs of developing countries are estimated to be about 3.8 trillion USD, of which pre-disaster prevention matters account for about 9%. Therefore, by 2030, developing countries will need about 342 billion USD in pre-disaster prevention and preparedness finance to withstand loss and damage. In addition, developing countries face a lack of technical methods to quantify information about their needs. Based on the above analysis, this study puts forward countermeasures and suggestions, including strengthening the allocation amount of loss and damage fund on pre-disaster warning, prevention and control actions, and establishing track modalities on the finance provided by developed countries to developing countries based on the principles of the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), to provide favorable guarantee for accelerating the effectiveness of international climate governance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 2","pages":"Pages 353-363"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824000285/pdfft?md5=519b3355544ad070ef60c437527032de&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824000285-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139886902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-influence of the start of thermal growing season and precipitation on vegetation spring green-up on the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Chen-Peng Wang ,&nbsp;Meng-Tian Huang ,&nbsp;Pan-Mao Zhai","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.04.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.04.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The climate in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has undergone significant change in recent decades, mainly in thermal and water conditions, which plays a crucial role in phenological changes in vegetation spring phenology. However, how the start of the thermal growing season (SOS-T) and the start of the rainy season (SORS) as key climatic factors affect vegetation green-up remains unclear. Given that these factors characterize thermal and water conditions required for vegetation green-up, this study investigated changes in the SOS-T and SORS from 1961 to 2022, using observation-based datasets with long time series. We found that the SOS-T and SORS have advanced across the TP in 1961–2022 and have shown a spatial pattern of advancement in the east and delay in the west in 2000–2022. Further, the co-effect of temperature and precipitation change on the start of vegetation growing season (SOS-V) in 2000–2022 was observed. Averaged across TP, the SOS-V had an early onset of 1.3 d per decade during 2000–2022, corresponding to advanced SOS-T and SORS. Regionally, the SOS-V generally occurred nearly at the same time as the SOS-T in the high-altitude meadow region. A substantial delay in the SOS-V relative to the SOS-T was observed in the desert, shrub, grassland and forest regions and generally kept pace with the SORS. Furthermore, for 50% of the vegetated regions on the TP, inter-annual variation in the delay in the SOS-V relative to the SOS-T was dominated by precipitation change, which was profound in warm-climate regions. This study highlights the co-regulation of precipitation and temperature change in the SOS-V in different vegetation cover regions in the TP, offering a scientific foundation for comprehending the impact of climate change and prospects for vegetation phenology on the TP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 2","pages":"Pages 327-337"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824000558/pdfft?md5=390f0ee0be8aae5913b59839548bde68&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824000558-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140762951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How the enhanced East Asian summer monsoon regulates total gross primary production in eastern China","authors":"Ming-Yu Han ,&nbsp;Yong Zhang ,&nbsp;Jing Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Recognizing the relationship between gross primary production (GPP) and precipitation in eastern China, the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) plays a crucial role in shaping GPP. Despite confirmation of the strong link between EASM and GPP, there remains a notable research gap in understanding the specific impact of the EASM on GPP in different regions of eastern China. Here we used simulations from Trends in Net Land–Atmosphere Carbon Exchanges (TRENDY) models from 1951 to 2010 and divided eastern China into five subregions for the study. We also used the New East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (NEWI) as a quantitative metric to distinguish between periods of strong and weak EASM. Building on this, this study aims to investigate the response of GPP in different subregions of eastern China. Regionally, under strengthened EASM years (1954, 1957, 1965, 1969, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1987, 1993 and 1998), East China experienced the most pronounced increase in GPP at 12 ± 21 (mean ± 1 sigma) gC m⁻² mon⁻¹ compared to the weak EASM years (1958, 1961, 1972, 1973,1978, 1981, 1985, 1994, 1997 and 2004). In contrast, Southwest China showed a decline in GPP at −4 ± 10 gC m⁻² mon⁻¹. Moreover, GPP also increased in Northeast and North China when EASM strengthened, while South China showed a decline in GPP. This indicated that GPP changed with monsoon intensity. According to the mechanism analysis, during strong EASM, there was intense moisture convergence through alterations in the atmospheric circulation field over East China and abundant precipitation, which further contributed to the increase in GPP. Downward solar radiation in Southwest China decreased with EASM enhancement, which suppressed GPP and hindered vegetation growth. Overall, the results highlight the importance of accurately predicting the impact of different EASM intensities of regional carbon fluxes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 2","pages":"Pages 244-252"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824000510/pdfft?md5=00c106704a19c53b048898f5f6e8bc69&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824000510-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140792833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Machine learning-based predictions of current and future susceptibility to retrogressive thaw slumps across the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Jing Luo ,&nbsp;Guo-An Yin ,&nbsp;Fu-Jun Niu ,&nbsp;Tian-Chun Dong ,&nbsp;Ze-Yong Gao ,&nbsp;Ming-Hao Liu ,&nbsp;Fan Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) caused by the thawing of ground ice on permafrost slopes have dramatically increased and become a common permafrost hazard across the Northern Hemisphere during previous decades. However, a gap remains in our comprehensive understanding of the spatial controlling factors, including the climate and terrain, that are conducive to these RTSs at a global scale. Using machine learning methodologies, we mapped the current and future RTSs susceptibility distributions by incorporating a range of environmental factors and RTSs inventories. We identified freezing-degree days and maximum summer rainfall as the primary environmental factors affecting RTSs susceptibility. The final ensemble susceptibility map suggests that regions with high to very high susceptibility could constitute (11.6 <span><math><mrow><mo>±</mo></mrow></math></span> 0.78)% of the Northern Hemisphere's permafrost region. When juxtaposed with the current (2000–2020) RTSs susceptibility map, the total area with high to very high susceptibility could witness an increase ranging from (31.7 <span><math><mrow><mo>±</mo></mrow></math></span> 0.65)% (SSP585) to (51.9 <span><math><mrow><mo>±</mo></mrow></math></span> 0.73)% (SSP126) by the 2041–2060. The insights gleaned from this study not only offer valuable implications for engineering applications across the Northern Hemisphere, but also provide a long-term insight into the potential change of RTSs in permafrost regions in response to climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 2","pages":"Pages 253-264"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824000303/pdfft?md5=8e8f760bc2acb4f3f9f1037649a722f4&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824000303-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140273903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected changes in Köppen‒Trewartha climate zones under 1.5–4 °C global warming targets over mid-high latitudes of Northern Asia using an ensemble of RegCM4 simulations","authors":"Jie Wu ,&nbsp;Xue-Jie Gao ,&nbsp;Xian-Bing Tang ,&nbsp;Filippo Giorgi","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mid-high latitude Northern Asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive areas to global warming, but relatively less studied previously. We used an ensemble of a regional climate model (RegCM4) projections to assess future changes in surface air temperature, precipitation and Köppen‒Trewartha (K‒T) climate types in Northern Asia under the 1.5–4 °C global warming targets. RegCM4 is driven by five CMIP5 global models over an East Asia domain at a grid spacing of 25 km. Validation of the present day (1986–2005) simulations shows that the ensembles of RegCM4 (ensR) and driving GCMs (ensG) reproduce the major characters of the observed temperature, precipitation and K‒T climate zones reasonably well. Greater and more realistic spatial detail is found in RegCM4 compared to the driving GCMs. A general warming and overall increases in precipitation are projected over the region, with these changes being more pronounced at higher warming levels. The projected warming by ensR shows different spatial patterns, and is in general lower, compared to ensG in most months of the year, while the percentage increases of precipitation are maximum during the cold months. The future changes in K‒T climate zones are characterized by a substantial expansion of Dc (temperature oceanic) and retreat of Ec (sub-arctic continental) over the region, reaching ∼20% under the 4 °C warming level. The most notable change in climate types in ensR is found over Japan (∼60%), followed by Southern Siberia, Mongolia, and the Korean Peninsula (∼40%). The largest change in the K‒T climate types is found when increasing from 2 to 3 °C. The results will help to better assess the impacts of climate change and in implementation of appropriate adaptation measures over the region.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 2","pages":"Pages 185-196"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824000492/pdfft?md5=f5c63843dd127529311d9a3041b3a62a&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824000492-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140398543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal variations in glacier area and surface velocity of the northern Antarctic Peninsula during 2018–2022","authors":"Yu-Long Kang ,&nbsp;Shi-Chang Kang ,&nbsp;Wan-Qin Guo ,&nbsp;Tao Che ,&nbsp;Zong-Li Jiang ,&nbsp;Zhen-Feng Wang ,&nbsp;Qiang-Qiang Xu ,&nbsp;Cheng-De Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ice sheet serves as a crucial indicator for assessing climate change. Mass loss in recent remote sensing-based studies indicated that the Antarctic Peninsula has rapid rates of glacier retreat and speed up of surface velocity. However, observations of seasonal variability of ice speed are limited, and glacier-area changes require multi-temporal monitoring. This study investigated the changes in area and surface velocities of ∼375 glaciers on the northern Antarctic Peninsula (NAP) utilizing satellite images acquired by the Sentinel 1&amp;2 satellites during 2018–2022. The results indicate that the glacier area reduced by approximately 166.1 ± 44.2 km² (−0.2% ± 0.1% per year) during the study period, with an acceleration after 2020 (−0.4% ± 0.3% per year), and the most dramatic reduction happened on the eastern NAP. The maximum annual ice speeds on the NAP generally exceeded 3500 m per year, while the ice speeds in 2021 were the highest (exceeded 4210 m per year). The ice speed variability in austral autumn was higher than in other seasons, meanwhile the summer ice speeds showed an increasing trend. The glacier G012158E47018N, McNeile Glacier, glacier G299637E64094S and Drygalski Glacier showed the most remarkable ice speed variations represented by high daily velocities and strong fluctuations on their termini. Our results demonstrated that the variations in glacier area and seasonal ice speed on the NAP were responsive to the ice–ocean–atmosphere processes. Therefore, seasonal velocity and area variations should be considered when conducting accurate mass balance calculations, model validations and change mechanism analyses under climate warming scenarios.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 2","pages":"Pages 297-311"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824000455/pdfft?md5=5a7ab34c64bed494a5f383428557aff5&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824000455-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140282317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ensemble projections of climate and streamflow in a typical basin of semi-arid steppes in Mongolian Plateau of 2021–2100","authors":"Hang Pan ,&nbsp;Jian-Ping Tang ,&nbsp;Liang Cheng ,&nbsp;Man-Chun Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.02.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Kherlen River is the main water source for Hulun Lake, the largest lake in northern China. Due to reduced inflow from the Kherlen River, Hulun Lake experienced rapid shrinkage at the beginning of the 21st century, posing a serious threat to the ecological security of northern China. However, there is still a significant lack of projections regarding future climate change and its hydrological response in the Kherlen River basin. This study analyzed the projected climate and streamflow changes in the Kherlen River basin, a vital yet vulnerable international semi-arid steppes type basin. A combination of multi-model ensemble projection techniques, and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was employed to examine the spatio‒temporal changes in precipitation, temperature, streamflow, and the associated uncertainties in the basin. The temperature (an increase of 1.84–6.42 °C) and the precipitation (an increase of 15.0–46.0 mm) of Kherlen River basin are projected to increase by 2100, leading to a rise in streamflow (1.08–4.78 m³ s⁻¹). The upstream of the Kherlen River exhibits remarkable increasing trends in precipitation, which has a dominant influence on streamflow of Kherlen River. Noteworthy increases in streamflow are observed in April, August, September, and October compared to the reference period (1971–2000). These findings suggest a partial alleviation of water scarcity in the Kherlen River, but also an increased likelihood of hydrological extreme events. The projected temperature increase in the Kherlen River basin exhibits the smallest uncertainty, while more pronounced uncertainties are found in precipitation and streamflow. The spread among the results of CMIP6 models is greater than that of CMIP5 models, with lower signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) values for temperature, precipitation, and streamflow.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 2","pages":"Pages 230-243"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824000297/pdfft?md5=e0b17b950c6f39d871ead23fddb6053e&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824000297-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140465225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reliability ensemble averaging reduces surface wind speed projection uncertainties in the 21st century over China","authors":"Zheng-Tai Zhang,&nbsp;Chang-Ai Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Accurate prediction of future surface wind speed (SWS) changes is the basis of scientific planning for wind turbines. Most studies have projected SWS changes in the 21st century over China on the basis of the multi-model ensemble (MME) of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). However, the simulation capability for SWS varies greatly in CMIP6 multi-models, so the MME results still have large uncertainties. In this study, we used the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method to assign each model different weights according to their performances in simulating historical SWS changes and project the SWS under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) in 2015–2099. The results indicate that REA considerably improves the SWS simulation capacity of CMIP6, eliminating the overestimation of SWS by the MME and increasing the simulation capacity of spatial distribution. The spatial correlations with observations increased from 0.56 for the MME to 0.85 for REA. Generally, REA could eliminate the overestimation of the SWS by 33% in 2015–2099. Except for southeastern China, the SWS generally decreases over China in the near term (2020–2049) and later term (2070–2099), particularly under high-emission scenarios. The SWS reduction projected by REA is twice as high as that by the MME in the near term, reaching −4% to −3%. REA predicts a larger area of increased SWS in the later term, which expands from southeastern China to eastern China. This study helps to reduce the projected SWS uncertainties.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 2","pages":"Pages 222-229"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824000236/pdfft?md5=4fa9b74d9b1dcb2cf6770ce75cb6ae2a&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824000236-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139874228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}