Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Mass balance reconstruction of a reference glacier in central Asia during 2000–2023: Integrating simulation and in-situ measurements","authors":"Pu-Yu Wang ,&nbsp;Hong-Liang Li ,&nbsp;Feng-Chen Yu ,&nbsp;Jie He ,&nbsp;Fang-Long Wang ,&nbsp;Ye-Fei Yang ,&nbsp;Yu-Ping Dai ,&nbsp;Pu-Chen Chen ,&nbsp;Ming Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The scarcity of observational data on the mass balance of glaciershas hindered an accurate understanding of how glaciers respond to climate. The Muz Taw Glacier, the only glacier in the Sawir Mountains that is subject to long-term monitoring, serves as a reference glacier for this study. We utilized the COSIPY model and integrated both <em>in-situ</em> and geodetic data on glacier mass balance to reconstruct the mass balance of Muz Taw Glacier from 2000 to 2023. Over the past 24 years, the cumulative mass balance was found to be −18.5550 m w.e., with an average annual mass balance of −0.7731 m w.e. Changes in mass balance can be categorized into two distinct phases: remarkable mass loss from 2000 to 2008, exhibiting an average annual value of −0.7973 m w.e.; followed by another comparable period from 2009 to 2017 with an average annual value of −0.8045 m w.e. A notable deceleration in mass loss occurred between 2018 and 2023, during which the average annual loss decreased to −0.6896 m w.e. Throughout 2000–2023, Muz Taw Glacier experienced persistent mass loss influenced by multiple factors as revealed through energy budget analysis: net radiation accounted for 63%, sensible heat flux contributed 18%, latent heat flux played a minor negative role −13%, ground heat flux represented −5%, while precipitation heat flux had a negligible contribution (1%). The uncertainty analysis indicates that our reconstructed sequence of mass balance is reliable. Furthermore, climate response analysis suggests that summer temperature emerges as the predominant factor governing changes in glacial dynamics. When compared with other monitored glaciers located within adjacent westerly-dominated regions, it appears that the mass loss rate of Muz Taw Glacier has been slowing down since 2018. This study investigates the interaction between glacier and climate using a full−component glacier energy−mass balance model. It helps understand the ablation processes and mechanisms of glaciers in Central Asia and provide a basis for predicting glacier water resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 948-959"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interpretable soil moisture prediction based on the SABO-CONV1D-BiLSTM model on the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Hong-Lin Yan ,&nbsp;Hui-Jun Jin ,&nbsp;Sheng-Rong Zhang ,&nbsp;Ze Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Jin ,&nbsp;Hu Zhang ,&nbsp;Shan-Zhen Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The limited regional adaptability of soil moisture prediction models constrains their application under complex climatic conditions. Enhancing modeling accuracy and predictive capability is crucial for improving the precision of climate simulations and the effectiveness of extreme weather early warnings. This study proposes an interpretable and generalizable soil moisture prediction approach that employs the SABO algorithm to optimize CONV1D-BiLSTM model. The model's performance was evaluated and validated at Linzhi, Dangxiong, Mozhugongka, and Xietongmen in the southwestern Tibetan Plateau. Results indicate that, across four distinct environmental settings, the proposed model achieved an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.859 and an average coefficient of determination (<em>R</em>²) of 0.929. Furthermore, using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method, soil temperature and relative humidity were identified as key features across multiple stations. This method enhances the understanding of soil moisture dynamics in the context of climate change and provides a powerful tool for climate risk assessment and early warning on the Tibetan Plateau region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 1022-1031"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expansion of thermokarst lakes along the Mo’he county section of National Highway G111 in Northeast China during 1989–2020","authors":"Jun-He Liang ,&nbsp;Shuai Huang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Jin ,&nbsp;Lin Yang ,&nbsp;Wen-Hui Wang ,&nbsp;Jian-Jun Tang ,&nbsp;Ze Zhang ,&nbsp;Shan-Zhen Li ,&nbsp;Xiang-Long Li ,&nbsp;Jin-Bang Zhai ,&nbsp;Xue Yang ,&nbsp;An-Yuan Li ,&nbsp;Lan-Zhi Lü ,&nbsp;Rui-Xia He ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Li ,&nbsp;Raul-David Șerban ,&nbsp;Hui-Jun Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Thermokarst lake dynamics crucially affect permafrost degradation, greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological and geomorphic processes and ecological responses in cold-region environments. However, the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of thermokarst lakes in mid- to high-latitude regions characterised by discontinuous, sporadic and isolated patches of permafrost, such as Northeast China, remain insufficiently investigated, particularly in the context of their long-term interactions with climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study integrates machine learning techniques with Landsat imagery to investigate changes in the number and area of thermokarst lakes along the Mo’he county section of National Highway G111 in the northern Da Xing’anling Mountains from 1989 to 2020. Results indicate a 243.7% increase in the number of lakes larger than 0.1 hm² (from 355 to 865) and a 345.3% expansion in total lake area (from 233.6 to 806.6 hm²), with the most significant changes (<em>p</em> ＜ 0.05) occurring in riverine and anthropogenically disturbed areas. Lake expansion is significantly correlated with land use indicators and climatic factors, including cropland area (<em>r</em> = 0.96), built-up area (<em>r</em> = 0.97), and potential evapotranspiration (<em>r</em> = 0.94). These findings suggest that anthropogenic disturbances, such as road construction and land use change, have intensified permafrost thaw by increasing ground heat flux and altering surface hydrology. Moreover, the interplay between climate warming and human activities has accelerated thermokarst lake expansion. This study underscores the need for land-use planning and highlights the importance of identifying disturbance-prone areas to support sustainable development and ecosystem management in permafrost regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 1044-1057"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change adaptation technology development of key socioeconomic sectors and ecosystem in China","authors":"Yin-Long Xu,&nbsp;Kuo Li,&nbsp;Xin-Yue Zhang,&nbsp;Ming-Yue Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adaptation technology plays a crucial role in achieving adaptation goals, but its development remains disorganised and unsystematic. To efficiently support the implementation of adaptation actions, fostering innovation in adaptation technology is urgently needed. In this study, adaptation technologies were firstly collected from China's four National Assessment Reports on Climate Change to create a technology list. The adaptation technologies were then categorised into four components: reducing climatic hazards, diminishing exposure, decreasing vulnerability and increasing adaptive capacity. These categories were further applied to sectors such as agriculture, ecosystem, water resources, human health and energy. Comparison results of the archived adaptation technologies in the four National Assessment Reports, with the development targets outlined in China's Special Science &amp; Technology Plan on Climate Change, revealed that while adaptation technologies have been enriched in China, substantial gaps remain. These gaps arise from an imbalance in the development of adaptation technologies across different socioeconomic sectors, a lack of integration of these technologies into a systematic package and weak linkages between the attributes of adaptation technologies and climate risk levels. We propose that the adaptation technology system should be developed based on the theoretical mechanisms of adaptation, with the main goal of efficiently reducing climate risk. The framework for the adaptation technology system should be comprehensive, considering the synergy between adaptation and mitigation. The framework should also be constructed with logical layers that address opportunities and dangers from climate change across multiple spatiotemporal scales, while capturing the nexus between various sectors. Incremental and transformational adaptation should be considered as two basic categories of the adaptation technology system, each corresponding to different climate risk levels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 666-673"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying indirect economic losses from extreme events to inform global and local adaptation strategies","authors":"Bo-Wen Wang ,&nbsp;Yi He ,&nbsp;Wen-Hao Wu ,&nbsp;Fei Teng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing studies on extreme event attribution are typically event-specific, particularly those conducted since the early 2000s. They primarily focus on direct economic losses to people and physical assets while overlooking the broader indirect losses that ripple through supply chains. Here, we combine disaster data with attribution studies and employ a global multi-regional input‒output model to assess both direct and indirect economic losses from droughts, floods, and storms attributable to anthropogenic climate change between 2009 and 2019. Our findings reveal that such extreme events cause 60.32 billion USD in direct economic losses and 65.07 billion USD in indirect economic losses annually—together accounting for about 46% of total losses from all extreme events. Climate adaptation investments are urgently needed in sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, construction, transportation, and finance, with vulnerable regions concentrated in parts of Asia. International trade and industry linkages amplify the domestic impact of international extreme events, with 17% of China's attributable losses stemming from disasters abroad. This suggests that overseas adaptation could yield domestic resilience benefits. This study underscores the interconnected nature of global economic resilience against climate change and supports the design of equitable, science-based international climate finance mechanisms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 674-687"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing the dual impacts of climate change and grazing on vegetation in Mongolia: Permafrost buffering and the paradox of greening","authors":"Yun Ela ,&nbsp;Tong-Hua Wu ,&nbsp;Hasi Bagan ,&nbsp;Xiao-Fan Zhu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Dong Wu ,&nbsp;Pei-Qing Lou ,&nbsp;Dong Wang ,&nbsp;Saruulzaya Adiya ,&nbsp;Dashtseren Avirmed ,&nbsp;Battogtokh Dorjgotov ,&nbsp;Urtnasan Mandakh ,&nbsp;Sainbuyan Bayarsaikhan","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mongolia's ecosystem is highly vulnerable to both climate change and overgrazing, which threaten its ecological stability and livestock husbandry. However, the lack of high-quality data has prevented a thorough investigation into how climate variability and grazing activities jointly affect vegetation growth. Here, we applied long-term satellite time series data, <em>in situ</em> observations, national statistics, and reanalysis data to investigate the annual variations in the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of vegetation growth from 2000 to 2018 in Mongolia. The relative contributions were qualified to understand how climatic variables (precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed) and livestock density affect vegetation growth via the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as a proxy. Our findings revealed that i) the NDVI exhibited a statistically significant increasing trend of 0.0023 per year (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) during the peak growing month of July; ii) the dominant factors controlling vegetation growth included precipitation (53.1%), air temperature (33.9%), solar radiance (4.4%), wind speed (4.6%) and livestock density (4.0%); iii) accounting for the memory effects of vegetation improved the explanatory power of vegetation growth variations; iv) precipitation and air temperature at the onset of the spring growing season were critical for the annually peak vegetation growth; v) permafrost reduced vegetation sensitivity to variations in precipitation and air temperature, thereby extending the duration of vegetation memory; and vi) NDVI greening or apparent stability masked the actual degradation of rangelands. This study not only enhances our understanding of vegetation changes in response to environmental and anthropogenic drivers but also provides a scientific basis for adaptive management strategies in Mongolia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 830-845"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate impacts on the supply–demand balance of China’s wind–solar energy system based on power grid transmission during the summer peak-load period","authors":"Zi-Jian Zhao ,&nbsp;Xing Chen ,&nbsp;Zhi-Yuan Ma ,&nbsp;Fang Yang ,&nbsp;Hao-Nan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As China transitions towards a greener energy mix, especially using wind and solar energy, the reliability and stability of its renewable energy system, heavily reliant on grid transmission, face substantial challenges posed by climate variability. During summer peak-load periods, high temperatures exacerbate strain on electricity supply–demand dynamics. This study defines a power supply and demand gap (PSDG) index and investigates the intricate relationship between climate change and the supply‒demand balance of China’s renewable energy system, focusing specifically on the role of power grid transmission. Results show that electric power transmission can effectively mitigate climate-related risk, reducing it by an average of 5.3%. However, climate change poses a substantial threat to future energy supply‒demand balance, with meteorological variations potentially intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme operating conditions. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that supply-side and demand-side aspects account for 55% and 45% of the total PSDG index variation, respectively. We propose that energy planners in regions such as Hebei and Inner Mongolia, where climate change adversely impacts the PSDG index, should adapt their strategies to accommodate the consequences of climate change on wind–solar energy systems. This adaptation necessitates a comprehensive understanding of how varying climatic conditions affect the performance and reliability of renewable energy sources, thereby enabling the development of resilient and sustainable energy infrastructures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 718-729"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of climate change on wind and solar photovoltaic power potential and distribution in China","authors":"Xiang-Rong Zhu,&nbsp;Jun-Hao Tian,&nbsp;Yu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The cleanliness and sustainability of renewable energy resources, primarily wind and solar, position them as key technological choices in the global transformation to low-carbon development. However, as the share of RE in the power system continues to grow, research on the impacts of climate change on renewable energy is garnering attention. This study investigates the effects of climate change on the potential and distribution of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power in China, focusing on the implications for renewable energy adequacy, cost, and future trends. The results indicate that climate change has a slightly negative effect on China’s overall wind and solar energy potential nationwide, ranging from −2.8% to −0.5%. However, there is variation among provinces, ranging from −14.0% to 14.6%. Additionally, the impact of climate change on wind and solar resources varies spatially, an increase is observed in southern regions, while a decrease occurs in northern areas. The findings suggest that changes such as wind speed and solar radiation caused by climate change may diminish the potential for low-cost renewable energy power generation while augmenting the potential for high-cost power generation, which may result in higher overall power generation costs in China than previously anticipated. By considering the impacts of climate change, this study offers actionable insights for policymakers to enhance the deployment of renewable energy projects in the south provinces, for northern provinces, policy makers may exercise greater caution when planning wind and solar projects, taking into account not only current economic viability but also the potential for future cost fluctuations attributable to climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 730-746"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effectively lowering climate risk with innovation in adaptation technology","authors":"Yin-Long Xu,&nbsp;Fei Teng,&nbsp;Wen-Jia Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 663-665"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bidirectional allocation method of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: From equity and efficiency perspective","authors":"Fan Yang ,&nbsp;Xiu Yang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Feng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To address the shortcomings of existing research on provincial carbon emission allowance (CEA) allocation regarding connecting the current situation with future trends, balancing provincial development demands with responsibilities, as well as reconciling equity and efficiency, this study proposed a bidirectional CEA allocation method to guide China's 2030 carbon peak goal. Drawing on province-specific characteristics and multiple guiding principles, we designed 961 allocation schemes. An integrated evaluation system combining equity (via the extended Gini coefficient) and efficiency (via the Malmquist index) yielded 18 Pareto-optimal solutions. These schemes achieve a trade-off between equity (Gini coefficient 0.29–0.33) and efficiency (Malmquist index 1.010–1.015). The optimal schemes account for provincial heterogeneity: advanced regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong would reduce emissions below their 2020 levels under ten of the eighteen schemes, whereas regions such as Tianjin, Shanxi, and Shaanxi would still have room for emission growth across all schemes. By offering a suite of trade-off solutions, our approach equips policymakers with the flexibility to prioritize equity or efficiency according to regional needs. Additionally, tailored policy recommendations are outlined for advancing carbon dual-control mechanisms and crafting support measures reflecting provincial characteristics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 871-884"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}