Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Big ambitions and insufficient actions: A decade of climate adaptation progress","authors":"Tao Wang ,&nbsp;Kuan Zhang ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen ,&nbsp;Xiaoming Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite growing global awareness of climate adaptation that prompts ambitious national targets as highlighted by COP29's ‘Enhance Ambition, Enable Action’ dual pillars, UNFCCC's assessments consistently reveal adaptation efforts lagging behind expectations due to deficiencies in policy, financing, planning, and implementation, thus exacerbating global risks amid ongoing warming and persistent challenges in emissions reduction. This study examines the progress and gaps of climate adaptation over the past decade across four key themes‒awareness, policies, financing, and implementation, which contribute to the iterative adaptation cycle in support of the ambitions towards global goal on adaption set by the Paris Agreement. It identifies a notable rise in global awareness of adaptation but highlights fragmented knowledge and inadequate policy development approaches, particularly lacking in vertical and horizontal integration across stakeholders and regions. The analysis underscores the widening gap between rising adaptation costs and insufficient financing, further complicated by political instability and unpredictable disasters. Moreover, it addresses the lack of effective monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, which has led to poorly aligned projects, reduced accountability, and limited scalability. These challenges hinder the development of robust adaptation measures, especially as difficulties in climate mitigation intensify.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 1087-1099"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High-resolution Arctic sea ice lead variations during wintertime (2016–2023) from SAR observations","authors":"Shi-Yi Chen ,&nbsp;Gunnar Spreen ,&nbsp;Feng-Ming Hui ,&nbsp;Xiao Cheng ,&nbsp;Zhi-Lun Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the Arctic, sea ice leads are crucial for the exchange of energy between the ocean and the atmosphere. Leads exhibit a wide range of widths, from several meters to tens of kilometers, with narrow leads being most abundant. Therefore, high-resolution observations are essential for monitoring leads distributions and variations. Here, we used an approach based on deep learning to generate an Arctic lead record with a spatial resolution of 40 m for wintertime 2016–2023 based on Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. The results indicate that our new lead record captures the spatial distribution pattern and the temporal variations in the lead fraction well, as one would expect from atmospheric and oceanic forcings and in agreement with two alternative pan-Arctic lead datasets. Meanwhile, the monthly Arctic lead fraction variations are consistent to the variations in sea ice drift. With our product the Arctic lead width distribution can be analyzed with a comparable high spatial resolution. Our results demonstrate that Arctic lead width distributions follow a power law function with leads narrower than 1 km accounting for approximately half of the total during winter. This study enhances the understanding of the spatiotemporal variations in Arctic sea ice leads and their width distributions, supporting climate change research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 922-934"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rapid attribution prototype for extreme high temperature events in China","authors":"Ying Sun ,&nbsp;Dong-Qian Wang ,&nbsp;Ting Hu ,&nbsp;Xuebin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the causes of extreme events and projecting their future changes are essential for society's adaptation to climate change. Although several entities have proposed different prototypes and frameworks for conducting rapid event attribution, these have not been extensively tailored to the Chinese context, highlighting a significant gap. This study introduces a probability-based event attribution prototype for climate variables with strong signals. It incorporates risk ratios conditional on external forcing and evaluates model performance to adjust for bias. We aimed to develop an initial prototype for a quasi-operational rapid attribution system of extreme events at the China Meteorological Administration using an inexpensive and computationally efficient approach. Real-time event analyses were conducted using observational data from weather stations, while the factual and counterfactual worlds relied on pre-calculated model simulations from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). To ensure the reliability of event attribution, the simulations were adjusted using an optimal-fingerprinting method so the model simulated responses could best match the observation. As demonstrated using extreme summer high temperatures as an indicator, the prototype is applicable to rapid attribution of both historical and future events. Before the 1980s, external forcing had a negligible effect on the extreme high temperature with various return periods; however, human influence has since significantly increased their occurrence probability. Notably, regions experiencing rapid warming, such as Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau, exhibit the most substantial responses to human influence. Projected future scenarios indicate a considerable rise in risk ratios, with record-breaking temperature events in the current climate state expected to become the norm by the 2060s in most regions. All these confirm the practical applicability of the prototype method. Effectively communicating these attribution findings to policymakers and the general public poses a significant challenge.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 995-1007"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulation of CO2 flux and evaluation of carbon neutrality potential at the neighborhood scale in Beijing with multi-source data","authors":"Wen-Rong Luo ,&nbsp;Hui-Zheng Che ,&nbsp;Shi-Guang Miao ,&nbsp;Jun-Xia Dou ,&nbsp;Ying-Qi Zheng ,&nbsp;Yu-Yu Zhou ,&nbsp;Zhi-Min Su ,&nbsp;Ye Wu ,&nbsp;De Wang ,&nbsp;Xin Yi ,&nbsp;Ke Gui ,&nbsp;Yu Zheng ,&nbsp;Lei Li ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ye Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The urban neighborhood serves as the fundamental unit for fine-scale management of urban carbon emissions, playing a critical role in achieving urban carbon neutrality and sustainable development. Carbon source-sink data at the urban neighborhood scale exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, and accurate estimation of CO₂ fluxes helps to better understand the relationship between urban carbon processes and both anthropogenic and natural factors. This study employed multi-source data and the SUEWS urban land surface model to simulate CO₂ fluxes at the neighborhood scale. High temporal (hourly) and spatial (20 m) resolution CO₂ fluxes were obtained in the typical mixed-use areas surrounding the IAP and RCEES stations in Beijing. Carbon fluxes from traffic, buildings, human metabolism, soil, and vegetation were quantified for the years 2016, 2019, and 2020. The results show that the SUEWS model effectively captures the temporal and spatial dynamics of CO₂ flux. The multi-year average CO₂ flux at IAP and RCEES stations was 28.17 and 12.87 kg CO₂/m² per year, respectively. Traffic accounted for the largest share of CO₂ emissions, contributing more than 50%, followed by emissions from buildings and human metabolism. The study also evaluated the potential for carbon reduction in urban neighborhoods under future low-carbon policies. Under the moderate emission scenario SSP2-4.5, along with the implementation of strong policy measures, including 80% rooftop greening and electric vehicle adoption, carbon emissions in urban neighborhoods could be reduced by approximately 60%. This study provides essential data and technical support for urban CO₂ reduction through fine-scale CO₂ flux calculations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 1070-1086"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected increase in extreme heat exposure for vulnerable groups in late spring in China","authors":"Hao-Yue Luo ,&nbsp;Ying Sun ,&nbsp;Yu-Xia Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming advances the onset of China's heat wave season and disproportionately exposes vulnerable groups to early extreme heat risks. Despite this growing threat, a limited number of studies have examined extreme heat exposure among vulnerable groups, such as the elderly and children, during late spring (May to June). This study addresses this gap by utilising Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models and shared socioeconomic pathway population projections. Results reveal statistically significant (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events (daily maximum temperature ≥35 °C and ≥40 °C) during 1961–2023 late spring. According to bias-corrected model projections, such events will affect over one-third of late spring days in eastern China by 2090–2100. Projections for 2090–2100 indicate maximal exposure increases among the elderly (≥65 years old) in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) and children (&lt;5 years old) in South China. The YRV elderly will experience an additional 109 million person-d of heat exposure, with the exposure ratio rising from 0.2% during 1995–2014 to approximately 20%. South China's children face an additional exposure of 6.7 million person-d with a 22-fold increase in exposure ratio. Concurrently, North China will endure substantial heat exposure to temperatures ≥ 40 °C. Although climate factor remains the primary driver, population–climate combinations disproportionately amplify elderly exposure as a result of demographic shifts in heat-affected regions. These findings underscore the critical need for proactive adaptation strategies against climate-intensified extreme heat.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 1032-1043"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Satellite observations reveal the impact of changing sea ice on wintertime surface turbulent fluxes over the Arctic Ocean","authors":"Zhi-Lun Zhang ,&nbsp;Feng-Ming Hui ,&nbsp;Xiao Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sea ice-driven turbulent fluxes are critical for Arctic warming and ocean mixing. However, the influence of evolving sea ice surface properties and types on Arctic-wide ice/sea‒air turbulent exchanges remain poorly understood. This study estimates wintertime surface turbulent fluxes across the Arctic Ocean during 2002–2020, integrating various satellite-based sea ice observations with atmospheric reanalysis. Our results reveal a weakening momentum flux in the central Arctic (−0.007 N/m² per decade), closely associated with reduced surface roughness caused by the loss and smoothing of multi-year ice. Meanwhile, the retreat of first-year ice (FYI) and expansion of the marginal ice zone (MIZ) have increased upward sensible and latent heat fluxes in the Barents-Kara Sea (+3.2 W/m² per decade) and +6.3 W/m² per decade, respectively). Within the ice-covered regions, FYI has become the dominant driver of air‒ice momentum exchange, while the contributions of polynyas and MIZ to sensible heat release have risen by 2% per decade and 4% per decade, respectively. Overall, thinner and more dynamic ice types like FYI and regions with open water (like polynyas and MIZ) are becoming more important for momentum and heat exchange in the Arctic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 935-947"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intensified extreme cold surges in northern East Asia and the associated changes in atmospheric circulation under climate change","authors":"Yong-Ling Dai ,&nbsp;Bo Sun ,&nbsp;Bo-Tao Zhou ,&nbsp;Hui-Xin Li ,&nbsp;Shengping He ,&nbsp;Fei Li ,&nbsp;Yue-Tong Huang ,&nbsp;Wen-Chao Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite accelerated global warming, extreme cold surges remain a critical threat to East Asian socio-economic stability. However, research gaps persist regarding trends in the intensity of extreme cold surges over northern East Asia and their physical mechanisms under global warming. Using ERA5 data from 1980 to 2022, this study revealed that while the frequency of extreme cold surges had declined significantly across East Asia (with decreases of 0.64 (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.1) and 0.94 (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01) events per decade in the northern and southern regions, respectively), their intensity had increased dramatically by 0.51 °C per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.1) in northern East Asia. This enhanced intensity was associated with a strengthened surface Siberian high during extreme cold surges, driven by enhanced Ural pressure ridge and deepened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere. Furthermore, the warmer Arctic and mid-to-low latitudes during the latter period (2001–2021) weakened the polar front jet while strengthening the subtropical jet stream, facilitating the invasion and accumulation of cold air to northern East Asia. These atmospheric changes further enhanced the Ural pressure ridge and East Asian trough, intensifying the surface Siberian high and ultimately contributing to stronger extreme cold surges in northern East Asia during the latter period. These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms underlying the intensity of extreme cold surges and have implications for long-term forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 960-973"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State of polar climate (2024)","authors":"Ming-Hu Ding ,&nbsp;Xin Wang ,&nbsp;Lin-Gen Bian ,&nbsp;Zhi-Na Jiang ,&nbsp;Xiang Lin ,&nbsp;Shi-He Ren ,&nbsp;Jie Su ,&nbsp;Biao Tian ,&nbsp;Sai Wang ,&nbsp;Yi-Ning Yu ,&nbsp;Dong-Qi Zhang ,&nbsp;Lei Zhang ,&nbsp;Wen-Qian Zhang ,&nbsp;Shou-Dong Zhao ,&nbsp;Kong-Ju Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The year 2024 has become the warmest year on record globally. As key indicators of global warming, the Antarctic and Arctic have shown heightened sensitivity and experienced more frequent climate anomalies. In this study, using various observations, reanalysis CMA-RA and remote sensing data, we reported detailed 2024 polar climate changes, including air and sea surface warming, sea ice, atmospheric composition and extreme events. In 2024, the air temperature of the Antarctic continent (−31.79 °C) from CMA-RA was slightly higher than the 1991–2020 average, with strong differences between the eastern and western regions and distinct seasonal variations. A persistent warm event occurred in Queen Maud Land, while Wilkes Land remained continuously cold. The inland Dome and Victoria Land showed a ‘cold summers and warm winters’ pattern. The average winter temperature anomaly at Vostok station (+4.34 °C) set a new historical record. The Arctic region continued its warming trend (−6.89 °C, on annual average), with the Canadian Arctic experiencing persistent extreme warmth in CMA-RA. CMA-RA shows that the warming rate in the Arctic (0.52 °C per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01) was 2.9 times the global average since 1979. In August 2024, the Barents Sea surface temperature reached a record high, while the Chukchi Sea reached a record low. The Antarctic sea ice extent remained historically low in 2024, and both the Antarctic and Arctic set new records for sea ice melt. The minimum extent of Antarctic sea ice was 1.97 × 10⁶ km² (on 20 February), the third lowest on record. The sea ice extent in November set a 46-year low for that month since 1979. The minimum extent (4.21 × 10⁶ km²) of Arctic sea ice in 2024 ranked seventh lowest in history. The development of the Antarctic ozone hole in 2024 was relatively stable, showing some alleviation in the previous four years. In the Arctic region, the weakened polar vortex led to an abnormal increase in ozone. The concentrations of greenhouse gases in the polar atmosphere show a similar trend to global changes, all showing a stable upward trend. This investigation and summary of the 2024 polar climate status will help people better understand global and polar climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 885-899"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The response of marginal snowpacks to climate warming","authors":"Juan Ignacio LÓpez Moreno ,&nbsp;Cesar Deschamps-Berger ,&nbsp;Jesús Revuelto ,&nbsp;Esteban Alonso-GonzÁlez ,&nbsp;Francisco Rojas-Heredia ,&nbsp;Nik Callow","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marginal snowpacks are a critical part of the hydrology and ecology of temperate mountain regions. However, their sensitivity to temperature increase is uncertain due to their phenology which sits between seasonal and ephemeral snowpacks. We investigate the sensitivity and the potential response of marginal snowpacks to a warmer climate by leveraging simulated snow series under various combinations of mean winter temperature (T) and precipitation (P), and varied meteorological conditions over 21 years (01/10/2000–30/09/2021), at 24 mountain sites globally. Warmer temperatures will lead to noticeable declines in all types of snowpacks. However, marginal snowpacks are found to be more sensitive to temperature increases compared to both seasonal, and ephemeral snowpacks. According to all considered T and P combinations, 64% of marginal snowpacks would transition to ephemeral or disappear, compared to only 21% and 24% for seasonal and ephemeral snowpacks, respectively. The study reveals new insight on the impacts of a warming climate on marginal snowpacks, including: the advance of melt-out dates (−21 d) and a reduction in snowmelt contribution to runoff (−11%). Further, we estimate the global distribution of marginal snowpack based on T and P combinations from ERA5-Land reanalysis. The total area covered by marginal snowpack would decrease by 2.7% under +1 °C, with a more significant decreases under +2 °C (5.7%) and +3 °C (10.5%) warming. Climate warming will impact noticeably in all snow dominated region. However, this study places marginal snowpacks at the forefront of where climate change will pose the greatest threats to mountain and montane water resources and environmental systems globally, with profound shifts even under optimistic future climate scenarios (+1 °C).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 900-909"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergistic versus antagonistic effects for carbon reduction policy instruments in China","authors":"Zhi Guo ,&nbsp;Xian-Qiang Mao ,&nbsp;Yu-Bing Gao ,&nbsp;Jian-Hong Lu ,&nbsp;Zi-Chen Han ,&nbsp;Qing-Yong Zhang ,&nbsp;Zaenhaer Duman ,&nbsp;Yong-Peng Chen ,&nbsp;Yuan-Yuan Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When attempting to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the implementation of multiple policy instruments may generate synergistic or antagonistic effects, thereby affecting the effectiveness of the policies. However, there is a lack of clear definitions and quantitative standards for determining synergistic and antagonistic effects, as well as systematic methodological framework for simulating and evaluating the policy effects between/among different instruments. The present study proposes a hybrid policy assessment framework integrating CGE modeling, and judgement matrix to simulate and assess synergistic or antagonistic effects between/among policy instruments within policy instrument combinations across environmental‒energy‒economic dimensions. Moreover, a multicriteria analysis method is employed to rank various policy instruments and combinations under different scenarios by coupling the three criteria indicators. The emission trading scheme (ETS), the new energy storage subsidy (SUB), and the mandatory energy efficiency improvement targets (MEET), are taken as the case study policy instruments. Based on the judgement matrix for synergistic and antagonistic effects, out of all the two-policy instrument-combination scenarios, strong synergistic effects are found for ETS and MEET on energy intensity reduction, for ETS and SUB on energy composition, and MEET and SUB on GDP, accounting for 10%; weak antagonistic effects are projected for ETS and SUB on social welfare, residents' income and GDP, and for MEET and SUB on energy composition, accounting for 13.3%; weak synergistic effects are projected for the rest combination scenarios, accounting for 76.7%. Strong antagonism is not anticipated. For all of the three-policy instrument-combination scenarios, strong synergistic effects are found on energy intensity reduction, accounting for 10%, weak synergistic effects are found on the other subindicators, accounting for 90%. Moreover, three-policy instrument-combinations can generally achieve relatively higher rankings than single-policy instrument and two-policy instrument-combinations in the multicriteria analysis. This study verifies the novelty and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid policy assessment framework in supporting policy-making and helping develop ‘correct’ policy instrument combination(s).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 1058-1069"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}