Future climatic risks faced by the Beautiful China Initiative: A perspective for 2035 and 2050

Abstract

Identifying high-risk areas for climatic disasters and their overlaps during the implementation of the Beautiful China Initiative fills a critical gap in disaster risk research, which often lacks quantitative analyses of the combined risks from multiple disasters. This study evaluates key climatic risks and their overlaps, including heavy storms, heatwaves, and droughts, that may affect the Beautiful China Initiative objectives in 2035 and 2050. The analysis is based on three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585), incorporating vulnerability, disaster risks, and exposure levels. The findings indicate that the severity of climatic risks in China will intensify over time and with climate warming. The western regions will face more severe single-climate risks, while the eastern regions will encounter increasingly severe comprehensive climatic risks. In the western regions, by 2035, the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang is projected to experience heatwave risks exceeding Level 5, while Tibet and Qinghai will face drought risks above Level 6. By 2050, more areas will escalate to Level 6 and 7 risks. In the eastern regions, by 2035, Shandong, Henan, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei region are expected to face comprehensive risks from heavy storms, heatwaves, and droughts. By 2050, the overlapping high-risk areas will expand, covering the eastern parts of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Furthermore, higher radiative forcing scenarios are associated with increased risks. This study provides critical insights for developing targeted disaster prevention and management systems across different regions of China, offering guidance for the effective implementation of the Beautiful China Initiative.