Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Impacts of snow cover on the cooling mechanism and performance in the crushed-rock interlayer embankment","authors":"Kun Xiang ,&nbsp;Aleksandr Zhirkov ,&nbsp;Zhi Wen ,&nbsp;Yuan Li ,&nbsp;Fei Wang ,&nbsp;Ming-Li Zhang ,&nbsp;Liangzhi Chen ,&nbsp;De-Sheng Li ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most researches assume snow cover as an unventilated thermal resistance to discuss its impacts on the crushed-rock interlayer embankment (CRIE). However, as a porous medium, its role in altering ventilation cooling remains elusive. We developed a numerical model particularly consisting of ventilated snow cover to investigate impacts on the cooling mechanisms and performance of CRIE under climate change. We found that the cooling performance is seriously underestimated if the ventilation of snow cover is ignored. Natural convection and forced convection coexist in cold seasons, and snow cover is conducive to the former, but not to the latter. Snow cover weakens the cooling performance depending on external wind speeds, ambient temperature and relevant properties of snow cover. Before the limit thickness (about 0.5 m) of snow cover, thermal insulation effect would be enhanced with snow cover thickening. On the contrary, it would be weakened and the cooling role increases relatively after the limit. The same goes for total natural convection strength over the entire period of snow cover. Increased snow cover porosity could enhance the cooling performance, while the increase of external wind speeds and extended duration of snow cover might warm the underlying permafrost. The findings provide a valuable reference for its application in snowy permafrost regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 257-272"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Higher CH4 production in permafrost while oxidation prevails in the active layer: Insights from a forest‒wetland ecotone in Northeast China","authors":"Xing-Feng Dong ,&nbsp;Chao Liu ,&nbsp;Miao Li ,&nbsp;Xiao-Dong Wu ,&nbsp;Zhi-Chao Zheng ,&nbsp;Xiang-Wen Wu ,&nbsp;Shu-Ying Zang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Continuous climate warming results in a deeper active layer and elevated CH₄ emissions. However, our knowledge about the CH₄ production and oxidation potentials in active layers and permafrost remains limited. This study explored the CH₄ production and oxidation potentials in these layers and their responses to temperature variations across two habitats in the Da Xing'an Mountains in northeast China. The results showed that the CH₄ production potential was higher in permafrost than in the active layer across forest and wetland habitats (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). The temperature sensitivity was greater in the active layer (1.98 ± 0.20 in forests, 3.42 ± 0.37 in wetlands) than in permafrost (1.59 ± 0.13 in forests, 2.08 ± 0.34 in wetlands). CH₄ oxidation potential was higher in the active layer than in permafrost (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). However, its temperature sensitivity was higher in permafrost (3.65 ± 0.76 in forests, 2.62 ± 0.50 in wetlands) than in the active layer (3.46 ± 0.66 in forests, 1.90 ± 0.32 in wetlands). The key abiotic driving these processes were pH and soil water content. Amongst microbial properties, CH₄ production was enhanced by the abundance of <em>mcr</em>A genes and methanogenic diversity rather than by community composition. On the contrary, CH₄ oxidation was influenced by <em>pmo</em>A gene abundance, methanotrophic diversity and community composition. Soil parameters and microbial factors accounted for 78% of the variance in CH₄ production and 60% in CH₄ oxidation potential. Overall, this study highlights the different production and oxidation potentials of CH₄ in the active layer and permafrost within a forest‒wetland ecotone, as well as their controlling factors. These findings emphasise the importance of considering changes in the active layer when modelling greenhouse gas emissions from permafrost regions under a warming climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 273-283"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of a high-resolution dataset of future monthly surface solar radiation by combining CMIP6 projections and satellite-based retrievals","authors":"Jun-Mei He ,&nbsp;Liang Hong ,&nbsp;Ning Lu ,&nbsp;Chang-Kun Shao ,&nbsp;Kun Yang ,&nbsp;Wen-Jun Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate projections of future surface solar radiation (SSR) are important for assessing the impacts of climate change and the potential of solar energy. However, climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) exhibit notable uncertainties in SSR projections. This study aims to develop a high quality monthly SSR dataset during 1850–2100 by synthesizing CMIP6 model projections and satellite-derived retrievals using a Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR) method. Five CMIP6 models are selected based on their historical performance in simulating SSR. The BLR method assigns gridded weights to each model based on how well the historical simulations matched the satellite-based SSR product (called ISCCP‒ITP‒CNN) over the period 1983–2014. The weighted multi-model ensemble is calculated to generate a synthesized long-term SSR dataset. Evaluation against ground-based observations during historical periods (1960–2017) shows that the synthesized SSR outperforms individual CMIP6 models and their original multi-model mean, with a reduced RMSE from 32 to 36 W/m² to 25 W/m² and a bias from 5 to 13 W/m² to −1 W/m² on monthly scales. The spatial patterns also agree well with the ISCCP‒ITP‒CNN (1983–2018). The high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) synthesized SSR dataset provides monthly projections over historical experiments and four future shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) during 1850–2100, representing future SSR changes and associated climate impacts. The dataset is expected to enhance simulations of land surface processes and solar energy applications under a variety of future climate scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 298-311"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Technology pathway to decarbonisation in the building sector based on a policy review of major economies","authors":"Jie Xiong ,&nbsp;Si-Yue Guo ,&nbsp;Xian Zhang ,&nbsp;Run-Ming Yao ,&nbsp;Pan-Yu Zhu ,&nbsp;Xue-Ting Peng ,&nbsp;Nian Yang ,&nbsp;Ya-Ting Zhang ,&nbsp;Mai Shi ,&nbsp;Xi Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building decarbonisation is crucial to achieve the carbon neutrality targets. Although many studies have been conducted, a gap remains in the research concerning technology development and policy design. This study conducted a comprehensive review of the decarbonisation pathways proposed by the ten largest economies globally for the building sector at the national level. By synthesising the relevant literature, a systemic framework of technologies applicable to the building sector is proposed, encompassing five major categories of technologies: energy efficiency, electrification and clean heating, on-site generation and flexible utilisation, green construction materials and processes, and sufficiency in operation and maintenance. An overview of each country’s emphasis on technological development, future expectations and prevailing trends in technology deployment is summarised and discussed. Most countries' policy documents address energy efficiency, electrification, and clean heating; however, the importance of flexibility and sufficiency warrants further emphasis. The balance among different technologies, the impacts of lock-in effects, and the considerations of equity and justice in renovation processes are critical concerns for the future deployment of technologies. This study can provide a meaningful reference for the following research phase and the development of pathways to decarbonise buildings for countries worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 183-198"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future changes in population exposure to intensified heatwaves over three major urban agglomerations in China based on excess heat factor","authors":"Qin-Yao Zhou ,&nbsp;Miao-Ni Gao ,&nbsp;Jing Yang ,&nbsp;Xin-Yue Sun ,&nbsp;Yan-Yu Lu ,&nbsp;Tong Jiang ,&nbsp;Bu-Da Su ,&nbsp;Tao Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwave events (HWs) have become more frequent and intense due to climate change and urbanization, posing risks to human health, yet the influence of rapid temperature fluctuation on human adaptation during these events remains insufficiently explored. This study identified HWs and estimated population exposure across three major urban agglomerations in eastern China based on the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), which accounts for the superposed effect of extreme heat and human adaptability in response to rapid temperature fluctuations. From 1961 to 2022, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region and Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) suffered from moderate HWs with higher frequency and shorter duration, while HWs in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region were characterized by lower frequency and longer duration. Compared to EHF, the conventional approach that uses single temperature criteria to identify HWs tends to underestimate their intensity without accounting for the effects of sudden temperature rises on human adaptability. Based on the downscaled ensemble of 23 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), HWs and population exposure are expected to increase across the three urban agglomerations in the near-term (2025–2035) and mid-term (2055–2065) future, with GBA experiencing the greatest rise in HW days. However, YRD will have the highest population exposure due to its large population. During the projected explosive growth of severe/extreme HW days, low and intermediate GHG emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5) could potentially avoid 29%/45%, 28%/42% and 44%/96% of the increase in population exposure to these events across the BTH, YRD, and GBA, respectively, in the mid-term future, compared to high GHG emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Further analysis reveals that the expected increase in HWs in GBA and BTH is attributable to the combined effect of intensified temperature variability and warming, while the changes in HWs in YRD are primarily driven by rising temperatures. The results emphasize the urgent need to develop resilience to HWs in a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 12-24"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional reallocation of zero-carbon ammonia production in China with carbon neutrality targets","authors":"Pian-Pian Xiang ,&nbsp;Jia-Chen Wang ,&nbsp;Ke-Jun Jiang ,&nbsp;Chen-Min He ,&nbsp;Wei-Yi Jiang ,&nbsp;Lin-Qing Guo ,&nbsp;Yu-Jie Jiao ,&nbsp;Sha Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Current studies have shown that local feedstocks such as coal, natural gas, and solar resources support regional industrial decarbonization pathways but fail to consider inter-regional cooperation. We employed the IPAC-technology model to develop a sub-national economic technological assessment model for the ammonia industry, incorporating commodity transportation costs to directly connect ammonia production locations. Our analysis indicates that carbon price is crucial for achieving zero carbon emissions across all regions. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Northwest China are likely to become electrolytic hydrogen-based ammonia production centers; Beijing‒Tianjin‒Hebei Region and Shandong are expected to develop nuclear hydrogen-based ammonia production; Southern China, Henan, and Shanxi are set to become hydrogen-based ammonia importer; and the Yangtze River Delta and Southwest China appear to have more varied development opportunities. Notably, while national CO₂ emissions from ammonia sector decrease overall, emissions in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and the Triangle of Central China are projected to increase in the near term. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry practitioners to develop decarbonization strategies and reallocation policies for China's ammonia industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 199-212"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Calibrating the simulated summer precipitation trend over the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 models using a sub-selection method","authors":"Hao-Lin Luo ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen ,&nbsp;Song Yang ,&nbsp;Wei Yu ,&nbsp;Zi-Qian Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for Asian water balance and global climate patterns. The southern slope of the TP (SSTP), a precipitation center in summer, has experienced a long-term drying trend in recent decades. Accurate simulations and projections of the change in summer precipitation over the SSTP are critical for future sustainable development. However, the multi-model ensemble (MME) from the current state-of-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 indicates a wetting trend (∼2.58 mm per month per decade) over the SSTP during the period 1965–2014, contradicting the observations (∼−2.95 mm per month per decade). This discrepancy can be attributed to an overestimation of the stimulating impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) on precipitation trend in CMIP6 models. The traditional MME shows limited capability in capturing the response of atmospheric vertical motions and water vapor to the GHG forcing across the SSTP, resulting in wetting biases by the vertical moisture advection and thermodynamically controlled horizontal moisture advection. A sub-selection method is introduced to calibrate the historical simulated wetting trend at each grid point, through which the selected MME (SMME) more reasonably characterizes the precipitation response to GHG forcing and reproduces the observed drying trend, showing a value about −1.95 mm per month per decade. As GHGs are expected to be the major external forcing in the future, this method is extended to future projections. For the anticipated future wetting trend over the SSTP, the SMME results are constrained to 61.8% and 76.4% in the moderate- and high-emission scenarios, respectively, for the period 2050–2099.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 35-43"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon simulation to horizontal resolution and air‒sea coupling in the FGOALS-f climate system model","authors":"Xin-Yu He ,&nbsp;Bian He ,&nbsp;Qing Bao ,&nbsp;Yi-Min Liu ,&nbsp;Jian-Dong Li ,&nbsp;Xiao-Cong Wang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Chen Chen ,&nbsp;Guo-Xiong Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The relative importance between horizontal resolution and air‒sea coupling on improving Asian summer monsoon (ASM) simulation skill remains unclear. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of ASM to horizontal resolution and air‒sea coupling via simulations using a series of versions of the FGOALS-f model. The possible causes of bias are further analyzed. The results show that the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) run of high model resolution (25 km) achieves the highest skill on capturing ASM pattern, while the AMIP run of low model resolution (100 km) appears the lowest skill. Further analysis of the hydrological cycle and monsoon dynamics suggested that the simulation of the vertical moisture transport term was the primary contributor to excessive precipitation over the western Pacific. In addition, the excessive release of latent heat and strong ASM circulation are also responsible for the strong precipitation intensity in the AMIP simulation. Importantly, although the air‒sea coupled simulation exhibited the higher skill level, the simulated sea surface temperature (SST) exhibited an overall cold bias. This cold bias partly counteracted excessive moisture transport after air‒sea interaction is considered. Thus, increasing resolution could be helpful for more accurate simulation of advection, and together with the use of prescribed observed daily SST could play more important roles than only considering air‒sea coupling on improving ASM simulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 44-57"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The interaction between thermokarst lake drainage and ground subsidence accelerates permafrost degradation","authors":"Yi-Ning Yu ,&nbsp;Feng-Ming Hui ,&nbsp;Yu Zhou ,&nbsp;Xiao Cheng ,&nbsp;Ming-Hu Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since it is not viable to directly evaluate permafrost change based on remote sensing, thermokarst lake drainage (TLD) and ground subsidence serve as indicators for depicting permafrost degradation. Unfortunately, the interaction between these two land surface processes as well as their joint effect remain unclear. In this study, based on a homogenized Landsat-Sentinel archive, TLD was detected in the Lena Basin during 2000–2022 thawing seasons using the modified LandTrendr algorithm. Only 9.7% of thermokarst lakes (TLs) experienced remarkable drainage, TLs larger than 30 hm² were more prone to undergone drainage processes. The drainage proportion among TLs with different extents all exceeded 10% during 2013–2015, suggesting the gradual drainage which lasted for three years or longer was likely to be the dominating type. The subsidence rates (−1.64 ± 0.89 to −1.94 ± 1.41 mm per year) surrounding drained TLs were higher than regional average (−1.40 ± 1.19 to −1.60 ± 1.26 mm per year). As the distance to drained TLs decreased, the proportion of subsidence measurements, rates, and seasonal subsidence magnitude exhibited consistent increasing trends. The subsidence rate was higher in the direction of more intense drainage than that in other directions. The ground subsidence trigger TLD by providing meltwater and reducing structural support, while TLD in turn contributes to ground subsidence by forming drainage channels. More importantly, our findings proved that their interaction further accelerates permafrost degradation, which is critical for more accurately modeling the complex permafrost degradation processes under the warmer and wetter Arctic climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 109-124"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate warming and wetting poses a severe threat to permafrost engineering stability on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau","authors":"Xiao-Ming Xu ,&nbsp;Zhong-Qiong Zhang ,&nbsp;Bo-Wen Tai ,&nbsp;Si-Ru Gao ,&nbsp;Yu-Zhong Yang ,&nbsp;Qing-Bai Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Permafrost underpins engineering in cold regions but is highly sensitive to climate change. The mechanisms linking climate warming, precipitation changes, and permafrost degradation to infrastructure stability remain poorly understood on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau (QXP). Here, we present a multi-factor framework to quantify climate impacts on permafrost engineering stability. Our findings reveal a 26.7% decline in permafrost engineering stability from 2015 to 2100, with areas of extremely poor stability expanding by 0.3 × 10⁴ km² per decade (SSP2-4.5) and 0.6 × 10⁴ km² per decade (SSP5-8.5). Meanwhile, regions with relatively better stability shrink by 2.0 × 10⁴ km² and 2.9 × 10⁴ km² per decade, respectively. These changes driven primarily by a warming and wetting climate pattern. Moreover, engineering stability is maintained in northwestern and interior regions, whereas warmer, ice-saturated areas in the central plateau and southern Qilian Mountains degrade rapidly. Notably, cold permafrost is warming faster than warm permafrost, increasing its vulnerability. These insights provide a critical basis for guiding the future design, construction, and maintenance of permafrost infrastructure, enabling the development of adaptive engineering strategies that account for projected climate change impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 93-108"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}