Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Impact of demographic changes on carbon emissions under a carbon-neutral pathway","authors":"Han-Ying Zhong ,&nbsp;Shi-Hui Zhang ,&nbsp;Can Wang ,&nbsp;Kang-Xin An ,&nbsp;Yi-Dan Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The existing carbon-neutral oriented climate change policy modeling studies hardly consider the multidimensional demographic factors, and lack scientific understanding of the comprehensive impact of changes in demographic factors on future carbon emissions in the medium and long term. In this study, we constructed a dataset of China's future medium and long-term demographic changes by urban and rural areas, age, gender, and education level through multidimensional iterative modeling. Then a computable general equilibrium model of China's multiregional population dynamics model was constructed, and various counterfactual scenarios were designed to analyze the impacts of carbon emissions from changes in population size and demographic structure and their mechanisms under a carbon-neutral pathway. The results show that under the multifactor demographic, the national CO₂ emissions peak at 9.93 Gt in 2030 in the baseline scenario and continue to decline between 2030 and 2060, leaving 1.97 Gt of CO₂ emissions in 2060 without considering negative emissions technologies. The fossil power generation sector is the main contributor to CO₂ emission reductions in the long-term timeframe beyond 2030. Considering only changes in population size and ignoring demographic changes would overestimate national carbon emissions, 1.0% (100 Mt) of CO₂ emissions would be overestimated in 2030, and 7.5% (160 Mt) in 2060. By 2060, ignoring demographic changes on the consumption side overestimates national carbon emissions by 1.15%, while on the production side, ignoring demographic impacts on labor supply would overestimate them by 6.2%. On the production side, changes in the age structure of the population and increases in educational attainment are the main factors, leading to a 16.5% decrease and 10% increase in national carbon emissions, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1286-1297"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The distinctive characteristics of glacier surface melt under the combined control of westerlies and monsoon in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Shu-Hai Guo ,&nbsp;Yue-Ping Li ,&nbsp;Ren-Sheng Chen ,&nbsp;Chun-Tan Han","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a key part of the Asian Water Tower, the glaciers in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) experience the mass balance changes jointly regulated by the westerlies and monsoon circulation. However, the mechanisms driving glacier melt in this region under complex atmospheric circulation remain unclear. This study investigates wind-driven energy allocation and its impact on glacier melt using four years (2018–2021) of meteorological and surface energy balance (SEB) data from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the August-one glacier, a flat-topped glacier in the westerlies–monsoon transition zone of the TP. Results reveal that westerly winds suppress melt primarily through cold air advection, markedly lowering near-surface temperatures and intensifying net longwave radiation loss (<em>L</em>_net). Despite increasing shortwave radiation under reduced cloudiness, the combined effects of low temperatures and enhanced <em>L</em>_net depletion limit net energy accumulation (<em>R</em>_net), resulting in a ‘low temperature–high albedo–low energy’ feedback loop. Conversely, easterly (local valley winds) and southerly winds (monsoon-influenced) dominate melt during the melt-season (71% of cumulative melt) by transporting warm–humid airflows that elevate cloud cover and inhibit longwave heat loss, thereby increasing melt efficiency. Radiation conversion efficiency (<em>η</em>) declines by 70% as westerly wind speeds increase (1–11 m/s), highlighting dynamic energy reallocation caused by cold advection. These findings challenge the traditional emphasis on shortwave radiation dominance, underscoring the coupled roles of wind regimes, temperature and longwave radiation in melt dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1150-1161"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Escalating risks of anomalously hot–dry growing seasons in arid Northwest China under human influence","authors":"Xiao-Jing Yu ,&nbsp;Si-Yan Dong ,&nbsp;Zhi-Xiang Yu ,&nbsp;Jiang-Hua Zheng ,&nbsp;Min-Zhong Wang ,&nbsp;Ping Ma ,&nbsp;Hui Qiu ,&nbsp;Xiu-Lan Wu ,&nbsp;Lei-Bin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The anomalous hydrothermal conditions during growing seasons, <em>i.e.</em> less precipitation and high temperature, could induce an unstable water resource supply and pose great threats to regional agro-pastoral production, particularly in water-scarce drylands. Owing to the biases in the simulations of global climate models, quantifying the anthropogenic influences on such high-impact hot–dry extremes and future risks in the arid and semi-arid areas remains challenging. Based on CN05.1 observations and statistically downscaled simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we conducted a comprehensive attribution and projection on the 2022- and 2023-like growing-season hot–dry extremes in Northwest China (NWC). Observations reveal that NWC experienced a fourfold increase in the occurrence of anomalously hot–dry growing seasons during 1991–2023 relative to that in 1961–1990. Attribution indicates that anthropogenic forcings have doubled/tripled the likelihood of 2022/2023-like hot–dry growing seasons in NWC largely due to human-induced warming. NWC is expected to experience increasingly hot growing seasons but with slight precipitation changes in the 21st century under the intermediate greenhouse gas emission (SSP2-4.5) scenario. The likelihood of 2022/2023-like hot–dry growing seasons in NWC will be more than 1–5 times that in the present-day (1991–2020), which is still dominated by rising temperature. To alleviate the stress of hot–dry growing seasons on agro-pastoral systems, we underscore the urgency of developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for water resource management in water-limited drylands.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1250-1258"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergistic effects of warming and heavy snowfall accumulation on the increased risk of large-scale snow avalanches in the western Tianshan Mountains","authors":"Guo-Qing Chen ,&nbsp;Jian-Sheng Hao ,&nbsp;Lan-Hai Li ,&nbsp;Yan Wang ,&nbsp;Fen Zhang ,&nbsp;Chao-Yue Li ,&nbsp;Yong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has increased temperatures and altered snowpack properties, which in turn affect avalanche activity. The extent to which climate change affects avalanche activity and how avalanche activity responds to climate change remains poorly understood, which hinders avalanche risk assessments under future climate change. In this study, we applied tree-ring evidence from trees affected by avalanches to reproduce historical avalanche events and then combined the observed meteorological and snowpack data to reveal the response mechanism of avalanche activity to climate change in the Tianshan Mountains. The study found that snow seasons with large-scale avalanche events have increased since 1943, which is contrary to the assumption that less snow under a warming climate reduces the risk of avalanches. Snow seasons in which large-scale avalanches occur are characterised by high snow depth in November (&gt;44.4 cm) and April (&gt;60.9 cm), together with low December temperatures (&lt;−1.9 °C) under heavy snowfall (≥34.4 cm). Under climate change, the study area experienced a marked increase in snow-season temperatures along with rising trends in snow depth and heavy snowfall, leading to elevated avalanche risk in the middle altitudes of the western Tianshan Mountains, where human activities are intensive. This study provides a clear understanding of avalanche risk changes in the region under climate change and helps people propose climate-change adaptation strategies for avalanche risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1259-1270"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geographically-dependent coastal marine heatwaves: Insights from coastal seas around a semi-enclosed bay","authors":"Yu-Wei Hu ,&nbsp;Chun-Zai Wang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Hua Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coastal seas connecting the open ocean and land are highly impacted by local terrestrial weather and climate systems. However, there is a lack of research focus on the distinct coastal geographical features, which may locally contribute to the spatiotemporal pattern and associated drivers of coastal marine heatwaves (MHWs). MHW metrics defined using the Climate Change Initiative Sea Surface Temperature (SST) dataset during 1981–2020, including event-averaged cumulative intensity, duration and frequency, show significant spatial correlations (|<em>R</em>| &gt; 0.92) with each other at Shark Bay, Western Australia, which also have distinct high correlations (<em>R</em> &gt; 0.73) with bathymetry. Mixed-layer heat budget analyses using the Bluelink ReANalysis (BRAN2020), analogues to the interpretation of results from a simplified atmospheric-forced experiment, further confirm the possibly nonnegligible contribution of geographical features to the warming and cooling effects caused by atmospheric and oceanic drivers during the onset and decline phase of major events. All major events illustrate a constrained contribution of the entrainment process over bay-entrance areas (&lt;0.01 °C/d). Events in the out-bay (bathymetry &gt; 25 m) and bay-entrance (bathymetry ≤ 25 m) areas experience different magnitudes of net cooling or net warming effects of horizontal advection and mixing processes. By evaluating the geographically separated MHWs over the last 40 years, it was found that MHWs over the shallow in-bay areas are typically frequent (approximately once per year) but less intense and short, while events in the deep out-bay areas are less frequent (approximately interannual) but more intense and prolonged when concurrent with anomalous ENSO-sensitive warm water advection. We suggested that a global assessment of these differences is necessary to identify qualified coastal seas associated with higher resilience to sudden and prolonged ocean warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1191-1205"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A classification‒regression‒correction (CRC) strategy for precipitation merging with gauge-independent spatial autocorrelation predictors","authors":"Rui Gao ,&nbsp;Ling-Jie Li ,&nbsp;Yin-Tang Wang ,&nbsp;Zhao-De Yun ,&nbsp;Zhi-Xin Peng ,&nbsp;Guo-Ping Liu ,&nbsp;Zi-Jiang Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multi-source precipitation merging enhances spatiotemporal estimation accuracy, yet machine learning (ML)-based methods suffer from limitations in rain/no-rain identification and violate ML principles by utilizing gauge-based spatial autocorrelation predictors. This study proposes an innovative classification‒regression‒correction (CRC) precipitation merging framework and constructs gauge-independent spatial autocorrelation predictors. The framework employs four ML models (KNN, RF, AdaBoost, and XGBoost) as candidate models in the classification and regression steps, with the correction step integrating their outputs to distinguish rain/no-rain events. Using the proposed method, this study carries out precipitation merging in the lower Yangtze River Basin and the Lixiahe region using gauge observations, IMERG, GSMaP, and ERA5. The results indicate that: 1) RF exhibits the highest accuracy in rain/no-rain classification, achieving a monthly average critical success index (CSI) of 0.684; 2) the RF–RF combination demonstrates the best performance, markedly improving precipitation detection and estimation capabilities, with the monthly average CSI increasing from approximately 0.450 to 0.688 and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE’) improving from about 0.500 to 0.725 compared to the parent datasets; and 3) the CRC merging strategy effectively enhances the ability to distinguish rain/no-rain events, while the constructed spatial autocorrelation predictors both prevent data leakage and enhance continuous accuracy. This study demonstrates the potential of the CRC framework to advance multi-source precipitation merging and provide robust technical support for enhancing meteorological disaster preparedness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1174-1190"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unraveling the roles of decreased Tibetan Plateau snow cover on summer prolonged marine heatwaves in the Yellow Sea‒Bohai Sea","authors":"Xiao-Jing Jia ,&nbsp;Wei Dong ,&nbsp;Xiu-Ming Li ,&nbsp;Ren-Guang Wu ,&nbsp;Hao Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Yellow Sea–Bohai Sea (YSBS) region faces frequent summer marine heatwaves (MHWs), while the upstream Tibetan Plateau is rapidly warming and losing snow cover, yet the connection between these two trends remains unclear. This study, based on observational data and numerical models, reveals the underlying mechanisms between Tibetan Plateau snow cover (TPSC) and summer MHWs in the YSBS (MHWs_YSBS) during 1982–2020. The results indicate a significant positive correlation between the prolonged duration of summer MHWs_YSBS and diminished spring TPSC. The findings indicate that decreased spring TPSC exhibits considerable persistence and triggers a deep anomalous anticyclonic system over the Tibetan Plateau by influencing its thermal condition. This anticyclonic system develops and moves eastward from spring to summer, leading to an anomalous high-pressure system over the YSBS during summer. This system is accompanied by descending air and a decrease in cloud cover, which collectively create conducive conditions for the emergence of summer MHWs_YSBS. The reduced TPSC-induced anticyclonic system modulates westerly winds over the YSBS region, forming a double jet pattern that sustains and amplifies MHWs. Numerical modeling experiments and quantitative analysis further elucidate the mechanism by which reduced spring TPSC influences the persistence of summer MHWs_YSBS. This process is driven by the enhancement of atmospheric high-pressure systems extending from the Tibetan Plateau to the YSBS, with TPSC contributing over 50% to this effect. These findings deepen our understanding of the climatic impacts of the warming Tibetan Plateau and offer a new perspective for understanding the prolonged MHWs_YSBS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 1008-1021"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variations in Greenland surface melt and extreme events from 1958 to 2023","authors":"Qing-Lin Zhang ,&nbsp;Ming-Hu Ding ,&nbsp;Michiel R. van den Broeke ,&nbsp;Brice NoËl ,&nbsp;Xavier Fettweis ,&nbsp;Sai Wang ,&nbsp;Wei-Jun Sun ,&nbsp;Qing-Long You ,&nbsp;Cun-De Xiao ,&nbsp;Da-He Qin ,&nbsp;Bao-Juan Huai","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Surface melt and subsequent runoff have been the main contributors to recent Greenland mass loss. However, previous studies mainly focused on the extent and persistence of surface melt. The variations in surface melt rates and extreme events have not been adequately known, especially the role of extremes in the long-term surface melt changes. Here, using two high-resolution regional climate models (RACMO2.3p2 and MARv3.14), we analyzed the variations in Greenland surface melt in 1958–2023. Both models (RACMO/MAR) show that annual surface melt is rapidly increasing post-1990 at a rate of 8.6 ± 4.9/7.2 ± 4.4 Gt per year. The northern regions show the strongest relative regional increase rate (3.9% ± 1.9%/3.4% ± 1.6% per year), contributing more surface melt to the whole Greenland. Based on the 90th percentile of the daily distribution, we found that extreme surface melt events from May to September (M−S) have become more frequent post-1990 (0.7/0.8 ± 0.5 d per year). Compared with 1958–1990, M−S surface melt from extreme events has increased by 134/105 Gt per year and dominates the increase in the total surface melt. During extreme surface melt events, we found an increase in downward longwave radiation, net shortwave radiation and sensible heat flux. The rise in surface melt and extreme events post-1990 is linked to more frequent atmospheric blocking. This study improves our understanding of the role in ice sheet mass balance played by long-term variations in ice sheet surface melt and extreme events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 910-921"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The intensification of soil extreme heat further accelerates the rise of atmospheric extreme temperature over China","authors":"Si-Chao Yan ,&nbsp;Huo-Po Chen ,&nbsp;Yu-Chun Du ,&nbsp;Wen-Yue He","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Soil temperature is recognized as a fundamental factor influencing the intensity and frequency of heatwaves. However, the degree to which soil temperature regulates the release of organic carbon through soil respiration and its contribution to atmospheric warming still needs to be clarified. Through site and reanalysis data, the trend of soil extreme high heat intensity index exceeded that of air in about 75% of regions in China from 1961 to 2023. For extreme high heat frequency and duration, this proportion is even greater, reaching 78% and 88% respectively. Particularly in Northeast China, the increasing trend for soil extreme heat is nearly double that of air. In this context, the intensified soil extreme heat is markedly accelerating soil respiration rates, with a remarkable increase of 33.6% reported in North China. This further enhances carbon dioxide (CO₂) release, with forest and agricultural ecosystems identified as significant contributors to carbon emissions in Northeast China. Furthermore, the impact of rising soil extreme heat on air temperatures is projected to intensify in the future, especially in North China, which is expected to increase by 30% as the global temperature escalating from 1.5 to 2.0°C. Future increases in soil extreme heat intensity could further enhance soil respiration, exacerbating CO₂ emissions and accelerating future warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 985-994"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating ISIMIP3b bias-corrected data for precipitation extremes in China during 1981–2100","authors":"Bin-Xiao Liu ,&nbsp;Qiu-Hong Tang ,&nbsp;Xi-Meng Xu ,&nbsp;Si-Ao Sun ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen ,&nbsp;Jin-Kai Luan ,&nbsp;Hai-Yi Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) bias-corrected data have been extensively used for climate change impact assessments, despite being derived from only five global climate models (GCMs). This study aims to enhance confidence in its application for projecting future changes in China by evaluating the accuracy of ISIMIP3b bias-corrected data in representing historical precipitation extremes compared to observational records. The findings reveal that the ensemble mean of ISIMIP3b data aligns well with observed precipitation extremes during the historical period (1981–2010), with spatial correlation coefficients ranging from 0.87 to 0.96 and relative errors kept below 5%, affirming its suitability for studying future precipitation patterns. Future projections indicate an increase in heavy precipitation intensity and frequency, along with fewer consecutive dry days (CDD). These changes are more pronounced under higher emission scenarios and over the far-future period (2071–2100) when contrasted with lower emission scenarios and the near-future period (2031–2060). Specifically, by the end of the 21st century under the SSP585 scenario, relative to the 1981–2010 period: CDD is projected to decline by 7.4 d (11.4%); days of heavy precipitation to increase by 2.5 d (15.2%); maximum 5-day precipitation to increase by 16.3 mm (21.7%); and simple daily intensity index to increase by 0.7 mm/d (11.6%). A comparative analysis with projections from a broader range of GCMs highlights that the ISIMIP3b data with a small GCM ensemble can effectively capture key aspects of changes in extreme precipitation projections, while acknowledging certain limitations. This study underscores the potential of ISIMIP bias-corrected data to reasonably represent change in precipitation extremes with a reduced GCM ensemble. These findings help to justify the use of ISIMIP3b data with a small GCM ensemble for climate change impact assessment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 5","pages":"Pages 974-984"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145340793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}