Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"The tempo‒spatial heterogeneity of the association between hourly ambient temperature and injury morbidity: A nationwide large case-crossover study in China","authors":"Jian-Xiong Hu ,&nbsp;Cui-Rong Ji ,&nbsp;Tian-Jing Ouyang ,&nbsp;Xiao Deng ,&nbsp;Tao Liu ,&nbsp;Yu-Liang Er ,&nbsp;Yan-Fang Guo ,&nbsp;Fang-Fang Zeng ,&nbsp;Peng-Peng Ye ,&nbsp;Guan-Hao He ,&nbsp;Su-Juan Chen ,&nbsp;Yuan Wang ,&nbsp;Zi-Qiang Lin ,&nbsp;Ying Xu ,&nbsp;Feng-Rui Jing ,&nbsp;Lei-Lei Duan ,&nbsp;Ye Jin ,&nbsp;Wen-Jun Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of global warming, the impact on human health has received increasing attention. However, studies focusing on injury are limited, with most examining temperature-injury association on a daily scale, and the finer temporal variability is unclear. A time-stratified case-crossover study was carried out in 243 surveillance hospitals across China, and ambient temperature was matched to injury cases and controls on an hourly scale. The effects of hourly temperature exposure on injury morbidity were estimated by conditional logistic regressions and meta-analyses, and vulnerable timing and place of injury were further identified. A total of 11,512,467 injury cases were included, with the largest number of cases occurring at 10:00 (1,019,381, 8.85%). The effect of temperature on injury morbidity lasting up to 5 h following exposure, and the cumulative excess risk (CER) of injury increased by 1.04% (95% CI: 0.90%, 1.18%) for each 1 °C rise in hourly temperature. Within a day, temperature-related injury risk peaked at 3:00 (CER = 1.72%, 95% CI: 1.19%, 2.24%), particularly in industrial/construction zones (CER = 1.37%, 95% CI: 1.22%, 1.52%). For injury mechanism, animal-related injury risk was much higher than other injuries across 24 h within a day in all places, especially in industrial/construction zone at 6:00 (CER = 9.37%, 95% CI: 1.12%, 18.30%). The hourly temperatures are acutely associated with an increased risk of injury morbidity, and temperature-related injury risk is more pronounced at nighttime within a day, particularly in industrial and construction zone as well as public place. Our findings provide crucial information for precisely adapting to climate change and reducing injury morbidity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1229-1238"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asymmetric response of Arctic sea ice and navigation to carbon emissions","authors":"Ting Wei ,&nbsp;Wen-Jie Dong ,&nbsp;Yue-Li Chen ,&nbsp;Wei Qi","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Arctic navigability has far-reaching socioeconomic consequences, but how the navigation will respond to negative carbon emissions proposed to mitigate global warming remains unclear. Based on the idealized CO₂ ramp-up (284.7–1138.8) × 10⁻⁶ and symmetric ramp-down (1138.8–284.7) × 10⁻⁶ simulations, we demonstrate asymmetric responses of sea ice conditions to the symmetric CO₂ forcing. At the same CO₂ level, Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in the ramp-down period reduce by 8.1%–27.2% and 18.6%–27.9% relative to the ramp-up period, respectively. Consequently, the navigable area and season show an additional increase (by 16%–32% and 1 mon, respectively) when the CO₂ returns to the initial level. This contributes to a northward migration in the optimal shipping routes, with shortened voyage along the Northern Sea Route (−4.0% [–16.6%, 15.0%]) and Northwest Passage (−2.7% [–10.3%, 8.5%]). Despite using the idealized carbon dioxide remove scenario, our results highlight the asymmetric response of Arctic sea ice and navigation to carbon emissions and may serve as an important addition to the assessment of the effect of potential carbon removal in future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1141-1149"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change-induced northward shifts in double cropping system in China: Implications for crop production potential and water use","authors":"Chu-Jie Liu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Yun Li ,&nbsp;Jordan Chamberlin ,&nbsp;Liang-Zhi You","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change may shift double cropping system into new areas and increase cropping intensity in some regions, creating opportunities to boost crop production. However, these changes also reshape the land‒water‒food nexus, particularly by increasing irrigation demand and exacerbating tensions between crop production and water scarcity. In this study, we integrated multi-dimensional datasets during 1980–2019 to identify the traditional and potential expansion areas of double cropping system and empirically analyze how cropping intensity responds to climate change. We further assessed the resulting impacts on crop production and water use, and explored feasible strategies for promoting double cropping. Results reveal the potential northward expansion of the double cropping system driven by climate warming, covering 6.72 × 10⁶ hm² of cropland. The multiple cropping index in traditional double cropping areas exhibited a pronounced response to climate warming, whereas potential expansion areas showed a weak and insignificant response. In the latter, the mean multiple cropping index was 0.99 during 2014–2019, indicating considerable untapped potential for more efficient use of climate and land resources. Using the winter wheat–summer maize system as a representative double cropping pattern, we found its expansion during the study period increased crop production by 39.18 Mt and irrigation demand by 15.17 × 10⁹ m³ in traditional double cropping areas, where the agricultural water resources stress index reached 3.47 in 2019. In potential expansion areas, under two hypothetical scenarios—converting spring maize to winter wheat–summer maize and fully utilizing idle arable land for the same rotation—national grain production could potentially increase by 2.16% and 0.88%, respectively, with irrigation demand rising by 10.85 × 10⁹ m³ and 4.52 × 10⁹ m³. The agricultural water stress index would rise to 2.04 and 1.87 under the two scenarios, yet compared with traditional double cropping areas, water pressure in these regions would remain manageable. The study highlights the importance of fully leveraging emerging climatic resources to boost crop production in double cropping regions as a climate adaptation strategy. It also provides a comprehensive assessment of the trade-offs between increased food production and water use, offering valuable insights for promoting sustainable agricultural development in double cropping regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1239-1249"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"More prolonged hot, dry, and compound dry‒hot events in China than expected based on observation-constrained projections","authors":"Ying Yuan ,&nbsp;Qiao-Hong Sun ,&nbsp;Bo-Tao Zhou ,&nbsp;Wen-Xin Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite growing evidence of intensifying hot and dry extremes, future projections remain highly uncertain due to substantial inter-model discrepancies, particularly at regional scales. This study investigates changes in the frequency and longest duration of hot, dry, and compound dry‒hot events across China and its ten major river basins using observational datasets and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results reveal widespread increases in the frequency and duration of hot and compound events, whereas increases in dry events are mainly concentrated in the Northwest, Yellow River, and Songhua River basins. Leveraging inter-model correlations between historical trends (1961–2014) and future changes (2031–2060, 2071–2100) under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), we refine projections using a hierarchical emergent constraint (EC) framework. Constrained results indicate substantially higher frequencies and longer durations than previously estimated for most basins, except for event duration in the Southeast and Pearl River basins and hot-event frequency in the Songhua basin. Nationally, constrained projections indicate increases of 14.5–20.3 d in event frequency and 2.6–3.6 d in duration across the three scenarios during 2031–2060 and 2071–2100, relative to 1961–1990. The Southwest basin emerges as a hotspot, experiencing the largest increases. This study provides more accurate information for future changes in extreme events, which is encouraging to enhance regional climate risk evaluation and inform adaptation policy development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1206-1217"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deceleration of tropopause rise amidst ozone recovery over Queen Maud Land, East Antarctica","authors":"Ming-Hui Wu ,&nbsp;Shun-Wu Zhou ,&nbsp;Jian-Dong Li ,&nbsp;Jia-Yao Li ,&nbsp;Yu-Ting Tan ,&nbsp;Dong Guo ,&nbsp;Jia-Xing Leng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tropopause height (H), a crucial variable for assessing upper-air climate change, is primarily modulated by temperature variations in the troposphere and stratosphere. While the recovery of Antarctic total column ozone (TCO) has profoundly reshaped the stratosphere since 2000, its relative impact on the H trend remains uncertain. This study investigates the long-term trend of H in 1979–2023 by using ERA5 reanalysis data and sounding data for cross-validation. Results reveal that the primary change in H occurs over Queen Maud Land (QML) of East Antarctica. H over QML presents a rapid upward trend of 0.09 km per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) before 2000, followed by a gradual upward trend of 0.03 km per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) after 2000. Spring exhibits the strongest change, with trend decelerating from 0.24 to 0.06 km per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). Subsequent analysis demonstrates that the H trend is closely linked to lower stratospheric temperature (<em>T</em>_STR) variations driven by TCO changes. Prior to 2000, TCO depletion reduced the absorption of solar radiation, leading to notable <em>T</em>_STR cooling and a substantial increase in H trend. Tropospheric temperature (<em>T</em>_TRO) warming, driven by rising CO₂ concentrations, further amplified this upward trend. Post-2000, TCO recovery has rapidly mitigated <em>T</em>_STR cooling, with the slowdown in <em>T</em>_STR cooling playing a larger role than the intensification in <em>T</em>_TRO warming in modulating the H trend. Therefore, the deceleration of H trend after 2000 is mainly caused by the slowdown in <em>T</em>_STR cooling, a direct response to TCO recovery. This study provides valuable insights into upper-air climate changes under Antarctic ozone recovery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1128-1140"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics and drivers of China's crop production carbon emissions in 2001–2021: A micro‒macro data integration study","authors":"Kun-Yu Niu ,&nbsp;Xiang-Bo Xu ,&nbsp;Xiaoshang Deng ,&nbsp;Qi-Ran Zhao ,&nbsp;Shao-Peng Li ,&nbsp;Li-Feng Dong ,&nbsp;Ming-Qiao Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China's crop production evolution has significantly reshaped spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural carbon emissions. However, a comprehensive understanding of the underlying driving mechanism of agricultural carbon emissions remains limited, particularly across different regions and crop types. This study integrates micro and macro-level data, spanning 14 crop types, 13 emission sources, and 31 provinces, and constructs a full-lifecycle panel database from 2001 to 2021. Using Moran's I global index analysis and spatial autoregressive models, we comprehensively assessed the impacts and spatial spillover effects of economic features, agricultural production characteristics, supporting policies, and climate conditions on carbon emissions from crop production. Our analysis reveals a nationwide increase in crop production carbon emissions, accompanied by widening disparities across regions and crop types. Additionally, it demonstrates that a 1% increase in urbanization, precipitation, and temperature is associated with a 0.02%, 0.26%, and 0.52% decrease in total agricultural carbon emissions, respectively. Moreover, contrary to previous findings suggesting that economic development exacerbates agricultural emissions, we observed that in major grain-producing regions, a 1% decrease in per capita GDP is linked to a 0.32% increase in carbon emissions, along with a 0.23% increase in emission intensity per unit area and 0.22% increase in per unit yield, which implies that these underdeveloped areas rely more on agricultural production and need more government support, putting more pressure on the environment. This study highlights the importance of integrating agricultural and environmental policies to address economic development, regional disparities, sustainable crop production, and carbon emission management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1298-1311"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contrasting trends of extreme rainfall and snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Yu-Peng Li ,&nbsp;Ya-Ning Chen ,&nbsp;Fan Sun ,&nbsp;Zhi Li ,&nbsp;Gong-Huan Fang ,&nbsp;Fei Wang ,&nbsp;Xue-Qi Zhang ,&nbsp;Bao-Fu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming has modified the distribution between solid and liquid precipitation, leading to changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall and snowfall. However, the distinct response mechanisms of these extremes to warming remain underexplored at the global scale, particularly in regard to the drivers behind their contrasting trends. To address this gap, we conducted a hemispheric-scale analysis using the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset (1950–2022) and quantified phase-specific intensification patterns across the Northern Hemisphere. According to the results, extreme rainfall is accelerating at a rate nine times higher (0.269 mm per year, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) than that of extreme snowfall (0.029 mm per year, <em>p</em> &gt; 0.05), as identified by the 90th percentile method, which highlights the differing thermal sensitivities of liquid and solid precipitation. This contrast becomes further evident in their temperature responses: extreme rainfall displays a marked increase with warming (2.27 mm/K), whereas extreme snowfall decreases (−1.63 mm/K), especially across mid-latitudes (30°–60°N). Notably, both types of extremes show increasing contributions to total precipitation (rainfall: +0.038% per year, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05; snowfall: +0.017% per year, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05), which indicates systemic shifts in precipitation regimes. Mechanistic analysis identified baseline snowfall magnitude and its temporal trend as dominant factors governing phase-specific intensification, with its spatial variability shaped by latitude, elevation and large-scale circulation patterns. This study offers novel insights into extreme precipitation dynamics from a phase-specific perspective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1101-1112"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Warming‒wetting and continentality co-modulate the effect of desertification on permafrost degradation on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau","authors":"Lu-Yang Wang ,&nbsp;Qing-Bai Wu ,&nbsp;Dong-Liang Luo ,&nbsp;Guan-Li Jiang ,&nbsp;Wen-Xin Zhang ,&nbsp;Zi-Teng Fu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ming Xu ,&nbsp;Si-Ru Gao ,&nbsp;Wen-Yan Du","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Permafrost degradation and desertification have been identified as two major land surface processes occurring on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau. However, the effect of desertification on permafrost degradation remains poorly understood. In this study, land surface process simulations are used to demonstrate that climate change, characterised by increased warming‒wetting trends alongside reduced continentality, plays a primary role in how desertification mitigates permafrost degradation. This mitigating effect is co-modulated by the two aspects of climate change, which affect the seasonal thermal resistance of aeolian sand and its weak heat absorption capacity. Overall, with the simultaneous increase in the warming‒wetting rate and the reduction in continentality, the mitigating effect of desertification on permafrost degradation is projected to intensify by 57.6% and 99.6% under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Therefore, permafrost degradation in desertified regions of the plateau will be more effectively mitigated. This conclusion may also be applicable to other regions where permafrost and desert conditions coexist, such as parts of Russia. This study presents a novel scientific perspective on the climate dependency of desertification’s effect on permafrost degradation and provides valuable insights for predicting ecological changes and developing targeted environmental protection policies in plateau regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1271-1285"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Review of WRF for weather and climate change over the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Lian Liu ,&nbsp;Xin-Zhong Zhang ,&nbsp;Yao-Ming Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is an indispensable tool for studying weather and climate change; however, its application over the Tibetan Plateau—a region characterized by high altitude and complex topography—remains particularly challenging. This review synthesizes fragmented findings from WRF simulations on the Tibetan Plateau, with a focus on model evaluation and improvement, precipitation process simulation, and climate simulation and projection. It further discusses the limitations of existing knowledge and outlines prospects for future research. Due to the inability to accurately resolve the microphysical processes, terrain lifting and blocking of moisture, WRF exhibits substantial wet biases. Furthermore, an overestimation of snow leads to pronounced cold biases. These systematic errors consequently introduce considerable uncertainties into climate projections. It is advisable to utilize high-resolution WRF or Convection-Permitting Modeling in conjunction with turbulence orographic form drag parameterization across the Tibetan Plateau. Parameterization improvement/localized optimization and satellite data assimilation are crucial steps in reducing the model's cold and wet biases. However, due to the scarcity of observational data, efforts to enhance parameterization and the capabilities of WRF data assimilation have been relatively constrained. This review provides critical insights into regional climate change and serves as a valuable reference for future model applications in high-altitude regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1113-1127"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response of water cycle over drylands to a warming future","authors":"Chen-Xi LIU ,&nbsp;Hai-Peng YU ,&nbsp;Yu REN ,&nbsp;Yun WEI ,&nbsp;Wen-Xia ZHANG ,&nbsp;Li-Xia ZHANG ,&nbsp;Si-Yu CHEN ,&nbsp;Rui-Xia GUO ,&nbsp;Jie ZHOU","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The synergistic relationship among various hydrological elements within the water cycle remains unclear because existing studies have mainly focused on the response of a single water cycle element to global warming in drylands or on a single hotspot region. To address this knowledge gap, we leveraged Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6–based multi-model projections (2021–2100) of the atmospheric and moisture budget to investigate the response of the full water cycle process to global warming in global drylands. The results reveal that the global dryland water cycle will accelerate within the projected period. Notably, the multi-model median responses regarding the annual precipitation (P; 6.71 (3.12–10.07) mm/K), evapotranspiration (E; 5.46 (3.08–8.59) mm/K), precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P−E; 0.05 (−1.33–1.21) mm/K) and runoff (R; 2.48 (0.19–3.07) mm/K) exhibit evidently increasing trends. Conversely, the total soil moisture is projected to decrease at a rate of −0.64 (−8.85–3.59) mm/K, which will exacerbate drought risk and reduce agricultural yields. We observe that global warming will exert varying effects on the water cycle. Regionally, it is expected to strengthen in East Asia's drylands but weaken in South Africa's. Seasonally, the P−E projection indicates that the global drylands will experience an intensified water cycle in the wet season (by 1.84 (−4.5–7.1) mm/K) but a slight decrease in the dry season (by −0.79 (−3.8–1.2) mm/K). Further, a moisture-budget decomposition reveals that the thermodynamic term, −32.1 (−35.82 to −23.9) mm/K, negatively contributes to precipitation mainly due to enhanced moisture divergence, whereas the dynamic term, 5.11 (1.54–7.36) mm/K, partially offset these effects. Our findings are of great significance for adapting to future global dryland water cycle changes and sustainable management of water resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 6","pages":"Pages 1162-1173"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}