Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Impact of ambient temperatures on Alzheimer's disease and other dementia mortality among elderly patients aged 60 years and older in China","authors":"Rui Zhang ,&nbsp;Lu Sun ,&nbsp;Ai-Nan Jia ,&nbsp;Si-Yuan Wu ,&nbsp;Yu Wang ,&nbsp;Song-Wang Wang ,&nbsp;Qing Guo ,&nbsp;Yu-Jie Meng ,&nbsp;Juan Liang ,&nbsp;Wan Huang ,&nbsp;Yong-Hong Li ,&nbsp;Jing Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China has a large number of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and types of other dementia, which places a heavy burden on the public health and medical systems. As global climate change results in more frequent extreme weather events, and there is a current lack of understanding regarding the impact of non-optimal temperatures, especially cold, on AD and other dementia mortality, the study aimed to identify patterns of temperature sensitivity in order to inform targeted public health strategies. The records of 399,214 decedents aged 60 years and older who died due to AD or other dementias from 2013 to 2020 were obtained from the China Cause of Death Reporting System. Using an individual-level time-stratified case-crossover study design, the relationships between ambient temperatures and AD and other dementia mortality were quantified using conditional logistic regression combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model. In addition, the attributable fractions (AFs) of mortality due to non-optimal ambient temperatures were calculated. The study found that both low and high non-optimal temperatures were associated with an increased risk of death from AD and other dementias, with an inverted J-shaped exposure–response curve. Moreover, the AFs of mortality due to full, low and high non-optimal temperatures with lag0–14 were 5.81% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 4.89%, 6.72%), 5.24% (95% eCI: 4.15%, 6.27%) and 0.58% (95% eCI: 0.27%, 0.90%), respectively. Importantly, AFs varied across administrative regions, influenced by factors such as climate, geography, sociodemographic characteristics and socioeconomic factors. These findings can inform clinical and public health practices to reduce the mortality burden due to non-optimal temperatures on elderly populations with AD and other dementias.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 6","pages":"Pages 1088-1095"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143342404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decadal variations in near-surface wind speed across the Northern Hemisphere on a centennial timescale and their possible causes","authors":"Lin-Wei Li ,&nbsp;Jin-Lin Zha ,&nbsp;Ting Chuan ,&nbsp;Jian Wu ,&nbsp;De-Ming Zhao ,&nbsp;Wen-Xuan Fan ,&nbsp;Yan-Jun Lyu ,&nbsp;Hui-Ping Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The reduction in near-surface wind speed (NSWS), followed by its recent recovery, could be a feature of decadal variations. However, existing studies mainly analyse the characteristics and causes of NSWS changes on regional scales and over short periods. The decadal variations and underlying causes of global NSWS changes over long timescales remain underexplored. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of NSWS changes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) on a centennial scale (1900–2010) and identify the potential causes of decadal variations by using an information flow technique. The results indicate that NSWS in the NH experienced a remarkable decadal variation, increasing during 1900–1945 and 1970–1980 and decreasing during 1945–1970 and 1980–2010. Furthermore, regional differences in the distribution features and decadal variations of NSWS were observed. Asia and North America showed the highest data overlap compared to other regions, reaching 59.4%. The longest period of decadal variation in NSWS was found in North America (14 years), followed by Europe (11 years), with Asia showing the smallest period (10 years). When determining the effects of large-scale ocean–atmosphere circulation fields or internal climate models on NSWS changes, prioritising causality between the two variables and the study period is essential, rather than relying solely on simple correlation analysis. According to the information flow technique, the decadal variations in NSWS over North America during 1950–2010 were linked with the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation influenced those in Europe. The Tropical Northern Atlantic was the driver over Asia. This study offers a scientific foundation for understanding NSWS characteristics on a centennial timescale and the primary causes of decadal variations in NSWS across the NH.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 6","pages":"Pages 1003-1012"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143342370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Representative CO2 emissions pathways for China's provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2 °C target","authors":"Han-Tang Peng ,&nbsp;Da Zhang ,&nbsp;Jun-Ting Zhong ,&nbsp;Li-Feng Guo ,&nbsp;Si-Yue Guo ,&nbsp;Jun-Ling Huang ,&nbsp;De-Ying Wang ,&nbsp;Chang-Hong Miao ,&nbsp;Xi-Liang Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ye Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. It is essential to develop representative CO₂ emissions pathways at the provincial level that align with the national target to facilitate effective policy implementation and scientific research. To address inconsistencies between provincial aggregate emissions and national estimates, this study compares the 2021 CO₂ emissions estimates of China's provinces from the bottom‒up emissions factor method and the top‒down atmospheric CO₂ concentration inversion method. We find that these methods yield comparable results for the emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes at the provincial level. Based on a review of existing research on CO₂ pathways for China's provinces, we propose a set of representative pathways for China's provinces. These pathways align with past practices of allocating national emissions intensity reduction targets to provinces and are consistent with the national Tsinghua‒CMA pathway. The proposed pathways require provinces to sequentially peak their emissions by 2030, followed by rapid emissions reduction. Compared to a reference scenario without the carbon neutrality target, these pathways would incur an estimated cumulative GDP loss of about 1% between 2020 and 2060. However, there are notable regional variations, with some regions in the northwest potentially experiencing higher economic growth due to the availability of high-quality low-carbon resources. We recommend that China enhance provincial-level CO₂ emissions accounting by cross-validating bottom‒up and top‒down methods. Additionally, careful consideration should be given to aligning provincial targets with national and global commitments when updating pathways toward carbon neutrality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 6","pages":"Pages 1096-1106"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143342133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring grid sensitivity in an ice sheet model: A case study of the Amery Ice Shelf","authors":"Qian-Xi Wang ,&nbsp;Teng Li ,&nbsp;Xiao Cheng ,&nbsp;Chen Zhao ,&nbsp;Lei Zheng ,&nbsp;Qi Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet are key factors affecting global climate change. To project future sea level changes, ice sheet models are developed based on a discrete grid system, which profoundly impacts the accuracy of numerical simulations. To comprehensively explore the sensitivity of ice modeling performance to grid resolution, this study focused on the Amery Ice Shelf (AmIS), the largest glacial flow system in east Antarctica. Using ten grid resolutions (nine sets of structured grids ranging from 2 to 30 km and one set of adaptive unstructured grid from 1 to 20 km), we conducted a series of inversion experiments and diagnostic perturbation tests. Our findings reveal a high sensitivity of both inversion parameters, the rate factor <span><math><mrow><mi>A</mi></mrow></math></span> and basal slipperiness <span><math><mrow><mi>C</mi></mrow></math></span>, as well as Grounding Line Flux (GLF) and Volume Above Floatation (VAF), to the grid resolution. We observed that for the AmIS, grid resolutions coarser than 10 km in our model introduce considerable noise and reduce the ability to capture realistic dynamic processes. Additionally, we found that the inversion parameters were transferable between grid systems of different resolutions, and the AmIS exhibited a consistent response to idealized collapse scenarios across these grid systems, particularly for grids with a resolution of 10 km or finer. This study extends the previous ice sheet model intercomparison experiments from synthetic topography to realistic geometry and provides insights for future ice modeling studies on grid systems configurations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 6","pages":"Pages 1013-1026"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143342367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal pattern of ENSO-induced modulation on landscape fires over Pacific Rim from 2001 to 2020","authors":"Fang-Zhou Li ,&nbsp;Ning-Ran Li ,&nbsp;Martin J. Wooster ,&nbsp;Wen-Shi Lin ,&nbsp;Tao Xue ,&nbsp;Tong Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates landscape fire activities across the Pacific Rim, the detailed patterns and mode-specific variations of these effects remain poorly understood. This study aims to address that gap by systematically assessing the spatiotemporal variations in burned areas from 2001 to 2020 during different modes of ENSO, namely, Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, EP La Niña, Central Pacific (CP) El Niño and CP La Niña. We evaluate the modulation patterns using classical correlation and cross-spectrum analyses, focusing on five hotspot regions: Temperate North America (TENA), Southern Hemisphere South America (SHSA), Northern Hemisphere South America (NHSA), Equatorial Asia (EQAS) and Australia and New Zealand (AUST). El Niño and La Niña exhibit asymmetrical opposite effects on burned areas, as expected. The findings reveal spatial non-uniformity in the impact of ENSO on landscape fires, with La Niña enhancing burned areas in TENA and SHSA, whereas El Niño predominantly affects AUST, EQAS and NHSA. CP and EP ENSO events differ in intensity and their large-scale circulation patterns. These differences cause notable variations in the regional burned area. Water vapour redistribution emerges as the key driver. The study emphasises the heterogeneity in ENSO modes in regulating landscape fires, providing insights for future landscape fire risk assessment and prevention efforts under climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 6","pages":"Pages 1057-1066"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143342374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A new approach for evaluating regional permafrost changes: A case study in the Hoh Xil on the interior Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau","authors":"Yu-Xin Zhang ,&nbsp;Lin Zhao ,&nbsp;Chang-Wei Xie ,&nbsp;Guo-Jie Hu ,&nbsp;Shu-Hua Yang ,&nbsp;De-Fu Zou ,&nbsp;Yong-Ping Qiao ,&nbsp;Xiang-Fei Li ,&nbsp;Jia-Jie Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The current spatial atmospheric forcing data cannot accurately depict the actual conditions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), where monitoring stations are scarce and unevenly distributed. This deficiency in atmospheric data hinders accurate simulation of plateau permafrost changes on the plateau. In this study, we develop a new approach to evaluate regional permafrost changes, which does not rely on spatially distributed meteorological data but instead uses the regional climate change processes or temperature change rates. Centred on a transient heat conduction permafrost model, this approach was applied to the Qinghai Hoh Xil National Nature Reserve (referred to as Hoh Xil) within the QTP from 1960 to 2015, using the rate of air temperature change provided by the Wudaoliang Meteorological Station, the only national station in Hoh Xil. Simulation results showed that the difference between the simulated and observed change rates of mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) was less than 0.04 °C per decade from 2001 to 2015 at five long-term monitoring sites. The simulated ground temperature profiles in four boreholes from various permafrost zones revealed an error of less than 0.7 °C below 5 m in depth. Model validation demonstrates the reliability of this approach for predicting long-term permafrost changes. Future regional permafrost changes were further simulated based on the latest warming scenarios (BCC-CSM2-MR) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Predictions revealed significant differences in the regional permafrost degradation rate under different climate warming scenarios. Under the most severe warming scenario (SSP5-8.5), permafrost in the study area is projected to still cover 72.2% of the total area by 2100, with most of the Hoh Xil's permafrost becoming warm (MAGT &gt; −1 °C) permafrost. This approach not only facilitates the simulation of frozen ground changes in areas with few meteorological monitoring stations but also provides a new perspective for using coarse-resolution palaeoclimate data to investigate permafrost formation and evolution over long time scales.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 6","pages":"Pages 1040-1056"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143342373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decoupling effect and influencing factors of carbon emissions in China: Based on production, consumption, and income responsibilities","authors":"Zhi-Lin Lu ,&nbsp;Li-Li Wang ,&nbsp;Xue-Peng Guo ,&nbsp;Jun Pang ,&nbsp;Jia-Jia Huan","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon emissions at the provincial level are mostly calculated based on production responsibility, which ignores the carbon emission accounting perspectives of consumption and income responsibility. However, scientific accounting of carbon emissions from multiple perspectives is crucial to equitably distribute the responsibilities for reducing emissions. This study utilises an input–output model for multi-regional carbon emissions to calculate carbon emissions from production-, consumption- and income-based perspectives for exploring the variability in the responsibilities for reducing emissions at the provincial level. The Tapio decoupling coefficient is used to analyse the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in key provinces, and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model is used to determine the factors promoting or inhibiting the decoupling of carbon emissions under different responsibility perspectives. The results show that, firstly, the national carbon emissions illustrate the following trend: production-based emissions &gt; income-based emissions &gt; consumption-based emissions. Secondly, provinces in strong decoupling states are distributed in a northeast–southwest direction. Carbon emissions and decoupling situations differ among varying responsibility perspectives due to interprovincial transfers of carbon emissions. Thus, a compensation mechanism should be established to promote a fair and orderly peaking in each province. Lastly, carbon emission intensity is a factor promoting decoupling in all three perspectives. In the meantime, output scale, economic development and factor input are the major inhibiting factors for the decoupling of production-, consumption- and income-based emissions, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 6","pages":"Pages 1177-1188"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143341960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do gridded meteorological datasets perform in a typical data-scarce cryospheric basin?","authors":"Ya-Ping Chang ,&nbsp;Dong-Hui Shangguan ,&nbsp;Yong-Jian Ding ,&nbsp;Shi-Qiang Zhang ,&nbsp;Qiu-Dong Zhao ,&nbsp;Jie Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Gridded meteorological datasets have been widely used in meteorological and hydrological studies, especially in data-scarce regions. However, assessments of these datasets in cryospheric basins, which are highly sensitive to global warming, remain inadequate. Therefore, three representative gridded meteorological datasets, <em>i.e</em>., the China meteorological forcing dataset (CMFD), CN05.1, and the meteorological forcing dataset for the third-pole region (TPMFD), were systematically evaluated in the Nachitai Basin based on comparisons with limited gauge observations, pairwise intercomparisons, and hydrological simulations. All gridded precipitation and temperature datasets were in good agreement with gauge observations on an intra-annual scale, while substantial differences existed among them in terms of precipitation and temperature on an annual scale. Additionally, pairwise correlation analyses indicated that the temporal consistency between the datasets was higher than their spatial consistency. Furthermore, all three datasets achieved satisfactory and reasonable results in simulating glacier area and streamflow variations when used as inputs for the hydrological-hydrodynamic model, exhibiting the robustness of the model in this data-scarce basin. This study provides a more profound understanding of the significance of gridded datasets in data-scarce areas situated on the Tibetan Plateau.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 6","pages":"Pages 1027-1039"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143342368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Elevation-dependent shift of landslide activity in mountain permafrost regions of the Qilian Mountains","authors":"Jie Chen ,&nbsp;Jing Zhang ,&nbsp;Tong-Hua Wu ,&nbsp;Lin Liu ,&nbsp;Fan-Yu Zhang ,&nbsp;Jun-Ming Hao ,&nbsp;Ling-Cao Huang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Dong Wu ,&nbsp;Peng-Ling Wang ,&nbsp;Zhuo-Xuan Xia ,&nbsp;Xiao-Fan Zhu ,&nbsp;Pei-Qing Lou","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increasing landslide activities in cold regions have been attributed to rising temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation. While previous studies have linked permafrost degradation to slope instability, the elevation-dependent effects of this degradation on landslide occurrences in the high-mountain regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) remain poorly understood, particularly concerning their spatial distribution and timing. This study addresses this gap by investigating the distribution and timing of landslides in the Babao River catchment, located in the southeastern Qilian Mountains of the northeastern QTP. Our results reveal a substantial increase in landslide events during the study period of 2009–2018: only 14 occurrences were recorded before and in 2009, 22 between 2010 and 2015, and 105 during 2016–2018. Notably, we observed an upward shift in the elevation of landslide occurrences, with an average increase of approximately 130 m over the ten-year period. Analysis of annual permafrost distribution maps indicates that this shift coincides with the rising lower altitudinal limit of mountain permafrost in the study area, likely driven by increased temperatures and precipitation. These findings highlight the critical role of elevation-dependent processes in influencing landslide dynamics under changing climatic conditions, particularly the transition from undisturbed permafrost to seasonally frozen ground at higher elevations. This study provides valuable insights for disaster prevention and mitigation in high-altitude regions, emphasizing the heightened risks posed by permafrost degradation under ongoing warmer and wetter climatic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 6","pages":"Pages 1067-1077"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143342405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Timber and carbon sequestration potential of Chinese forests under different forest management scenarios","authors":"Hui-Ling Tian ,&nbsp;Jian-Hua Zhu ,&nbsp;Xiang-Dong Lei ,&nbsp;Xin-Yun Chen ,&nbsp;Li-Xiong Zeng ,&nbsp;Zun-Ji Jian ,&nbsp;Fu-Hua Li ,&nbsp;Wen-Fa Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Developing forestry action plans with the goal of carbon neutrality is a critical task to identify carbon sink potential and balance the pathways of China's forests. Current research that predicts forest biomass carbon stock and sink potential has shortcomings, such as an incomplete assessment of China's forest carbon sink range, assumptions based on unchanged forest area in the base year and insufficient consideration of natural and human disturbance factors. This study utilised the national forest inventory (NFI) data to construct a model of forest growth and consumption using a machine learning algorithm (<em>i.e</em>. random forest), identified suitable areas for future forest expansion by integrating multi-source data, and set up three future forest management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), enhanced policy scenario (EPS) and maximum potential scenario (MPS). In addition, changes in the area, volume stock and biomass carbon stock in China's forests between 2020 and 2060 were predicted under three forestry activities (<em>i.e</em>. existing forest, afforested/reforested (AR) forest and forest conversion) and three climate scenarios (<em>i.e</em>. SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585) based on the 9th NFI (2014–2018). According to China's relevant planning goals and suitable forest space, the area of AR forests is predicted to be 55.55 × 10⁶ hm² by 2060, and the forest coverage rate is predicted to increase from 23% in 2018 to 28% by 2060. Biomass carbon sequestration (BCS) between 2020 and 2060 in AR forests is predicted to be 36.00 TgC per year. By 2060, the average BCS is predicted to be approximately 140.00–287.56 TgC per year in China's forests, which is mainly owing to arbor forest management. Under the BAU and EPS scenarios, BCS in China's forests is expected to decline from 2020 to 2060. However, under the MPS, BCS in China's forests is projected to increase and be maintained at 322 TgC per year or above by 2060, with wood production reaching 4.71 × 10⁸ m³ per year. China's forests are predicted to experience an increase in biomass carbon stock in the future and play a role as a carbon sink. By taking measures to achieve the maximum growth potential of all forest types, China's forests will achieve a win‒win situation between carbon sinks and timber production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 6","pages":"Pages 1121-1129"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143342413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}