Climate warming and wetting poses a severe threat to permafrost engineering stability on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau

Abstract

Permafrost underpins engineering in cold regions but is highly sensitive to climate change. The mechanisms linking climate warming, precipitation changes, and permafrost degradation to infrastructure stability remain poorly understood on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau (QXP). Here, we present a multi-factor framework to quantify climate impacts on permafrost engineering stability. Our findings reveal a 26.7% decline in permafrost engineering stability from 2015 to 2100, with areas of extremely poor stability expanding by 0.3 × 10⁴ km² per decade (SSP2-4.5) and 0.6 × 10⁴ km² per decade (SSP5-8.5). Meanwhile, regions with relatively better stability shrink by 2.0 × 10⁴ km² and 2.9 × 10⁴ km² per decade, respectively. These changes driven primarily by a warming and wetting climate pattern. Moreover, engineering stability is maintained in northwestern and interior regions, whereas warmer, ice-saturated areas in the central plateau and southern Qilian Mountains degrade rapidly. Notably, cold permafrost is warming faster than warm permafrost, increasing its vulnerability. These insights provide a critical basis for guiding the future design, construction, and maintenance of permafrost infrastructure, enabling the development of adaptive engineering strategies that account for projected climate change impacts.