Regional reallocation of zero-carbon ammonia production in China with carbon neutrality targets

Abstract

Current studies have shown that local feedstocks such as coal, natural gas, and solar resources support regional industrial decarbonization pathways but fail to consider inter-regional cooperation. We employed the IPAC-technology model to develop a sub-national economic technological assessment model for the ammonia industry, incorporating commodity transportation costs to directly connect ammonia production locations. Our analysis indicates that carbon price is crucial for achieving zero carbon emissions across all regions. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Northwest China are likely to become electrolytic hydrogen-based ammonia production centers; Beijing‒Tianjin‒Hebei Region and Shandong are expected to develop nuclear hydrogen-based ammonia production; Southern China, Henan, and Shanxi are set to become hydrogen-based ammonia importer; and the Yangtze River Delta and Southwest China appear to have more varied development opportunities. Notably, while national CO₂ emissions from ammonia sector decrease overall, emissions in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and the Triangle of Central China are projected to increase in the near term. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry practitioners to develop decarbonization strategies and reallocation policies for China's ammonia industry.