Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Variations of soil thermal conductivity in the Three-River Source Region, Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau","authors":"Jia Liu ,&nbsp;Dong-Liang Luo ,&nbsp;Wen-Jie Lei ,&nbsp;Fang-Fang Chen ,&nbsp;Rui-Xia He ,&nbsp;Cheng-Song Yang ,&nbsp;Yan Lu ,&nbsp;Shi-Zhen Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The ongoing permafrost degradation in the Three-River Source Region (TRSR) poses serious threats to ecosystems, water resources, and infrastructure projects. As the China Water Tower and a vital barrier for the high-altitude ecological security of China, the TRSR is particularly vulnerable to such changes. The extent and severity of permafrost degradation are primarily governed by heat transfer dynamics, with soil thermal conductivity (STC) playing a crucial role in regulating thermal equilibrium. However, research on STC is hindered by insufficient <em>in-situ</em> measurements. To address this gap, we conducted <em>in-situ</em> measurements of STC at soil depths of 0–40 cm across 58 plots at 12 sites in the TRSR (244 records) during July and August 2023. The driving mechanisms influencing STC variations were further analyzed through laboratory experiments in September and October 2023. Spatially, STC increases from west to east and vertically with soil depth. Control experiments revealed that STC at negative temperatures is markedly higher than that at positive temperatures and increases with volumetric moisture content, particularly in inorganic soils, sand and loamy sand. This effect is more pronounced at subzero temperatures. Meanwhile, our results show that an artificial neural network model (<em>R</em>² = 0.78, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.0001) incorporating ten measured soil physical parameters, outperforms traditional theoretical and empirical models in predicting STC. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of permafrost formation, evolution, and its responses to climate change in the TRSR.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 552-564"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of solar radiation modification on precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia: Insights from the GeoMIP G6 experiments","authors":"Ze-Qian Feng ,&nbsp;Mou Leong Tan ,&nbsp;Liew Juneng ,&nbsp;Mari R. Tye ,&nbsp;Li-Li Xia ,&nbsp;Fei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed to reduce global temperatures by reflecting more solar radiation into space, but its effects on precipitation extremes across Southeast Asia remain uncertain. This study evaluates the impacts of two SRM strategies on precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia, using the multi-model ensemble mean from five climate models in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), two SRM approaches are tested: injecting sulfur dioxide (G6sulfur) into the stratosphere and reducing the solar constant (G6solar) to maintain radiative forcing at the level of a moderate-emission scenario (SSP245). Bilinear interpolation and linear scaling were used to downscale and bias-correct daily precipitation data before calculating precipitation extreme indices, respectively. The results show that G6sulfur causes more regional variation in annual total and mean wet day precipitation, the average daily precipitation on days with ≥1 mm rainfall, compared to G6solar. In areas like central Borneo, northern mainland Southeast Asia, and eastern Indonesia, the annual maximum 1-d precipitation per year is projected to increase by 30%–50% under SSP585 relative to the historical 1995–2014 baseline period but this rise could be reduced to around 20% by SSP245, G6sulfur, or G6solar. G6sulfur has less influence on continuous wet and dry spells than G6solar, yielding results closer to SSP585. Both SRM strategies lower the projected increase in heavy precipitation days, except in areas like East Coast Peninsular Malaysia, Nusantara Indonesia, and East Timor. In conclusion, SRM may effectively mitigate increases in extreme precipitation events in most of Southeast Asia, but G6solar provides a more consistent reduction, while G6sulfur shows more complex spatial responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 591-605"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projection of sea ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago based on CMIP6 assessments","authors":"Yu-Fei Liang ,&nbsp;Yu Zhang ,&nbsp;Hai-Long Guo ,&nbsp;Chang-Sheng Chen ,&nbsp;Wei-Zeng Shao ,&nbsp;Yi Zhou ,&nbsp;De-Shuai Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) includes the critical region of the Northwest Passage (NWP) and is one of the areas with the most severe sea ice conditions in the Arctic. Currently, studies on sea ice projections focusing on the CAA are limited. Furthermore, the prediction results for the CAA from different models based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) exhibit uncertainty due to the inter-model spread. This study evaluated the projected data for sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT) within the CAA from 14 CMIP6 models for the period 2015–2022 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario based on the satellite and reanalysis data. Although most models can capture the major characteristics of spatiotemporal variations in SIC and SIT within the CAA, there are considerable numerical differences compared to observations and reanalysis. Additionally, there is a notable spread among 14 CMIP6 models. The assessment of SIC indicates that CESM2, GFDL-CM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and UKESM1-0-LL exhibit better performance, with a relatively low bias (less than 7%), a root mean square error (RMSE) below 22%, and a relatively high correlation coefficient (CC) exceeding 0.75. In the evaluation of SIT, the four best-performing models are GFDL-CM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, and MRI-ESM2-0. The multi-model ensemble of the best performance group (MMM_BPG) projects a declining trend in both sea ice area (SIA) and SIT for the CAA from 2025 to 2100, with respective trends of −0.21 × 10⁵ km² per decade and −0.06 m per decade under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and −0.56 × 10⁵ km² per decade and −0.11 m per decade under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Under both scenarios, the MMM_BPG predicts a more notable reduction of sea ice in the NWP compared to the multi-model ensemble of all 14 models. Navigable conditions for the northern and southern routes are defined by SIA and SIT respectively, with each route's SIA being less than 5% of its total area and the mean SIT being below 0.15 m. Based on the SIA threshold, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, MMM_BPG projects that continuous annual navigability in the NWP, with at least three navigable months per year, will be achieved starting in 2060 and 2054, respectively. According to the SIT threshold, the MMM_BPG projects that it will reach continuous annual navigability with at least one navigable month per year under both scenarios, starting in 2038 and 2036, respectively. This study enhances the understanding of CMIP6 model performance in projecting sea ice within the CAA and provides insights into future sea ice conditions in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 473-489"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inconsistent response patterns of snow cover duration and snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau to global warming","authors":"Ye Jiang ,&nbsp;Tao Che ,&nbsp;Li-Yun Dai","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Snow cover possesses high albedo and thermal insulation properties, greatly influencing climate change and responding rapidly to climatic variation, particularly on the Tibetan Plateau. The region's combination of low latitude and intense solar radiation further amplifies the effects of climate change on snow cover. During the spring and summer seasons, changes to snow cover patterns driven by climate change initiate shifts in hydrological cycles, affecting freshwater availability and vegetation growth. However, previous studies investigating snow cover changes across the Tibetan Plateau have yielded inconsistent results due to the use of diverse datasets across varying periods. This study aims to analyze the response patterns of snow cover to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau by comparing trends in snow cover duration (SCD) and snow depth (SD) during spring and summer from 1990 to 2019. Based on the spatial distribution of changes in these two parameters, we categorized regions into four distinct types: areas where both snow cover duration and snow depth increase (SCD+SD+), areas where snow cover duration increase while snow depth decreases (SCD+SD−), areas where snow cover duration decrease while snow depth increases (SCD−SD+), and areas where both snow cover duration and snow depth decreases (SCD−SD−). Rising temperatures are driving a shift from snowfall to rainfall in lower-altitude regions, while high-altitude areas remain predominantly below freezing, limiting this conversion. By analyzing temperature and precipitation changes in the four areas, we observed that the response of snow cover duration to global warming is limited at altitudes above 4700 m during spring and summer, with an increases in spring snowfall dominating the overall rise of snow cover duration. In contrast, the declines in snow cover duration observed in lower-altitude areas are primarily attributed to warming effects, regardless of variations in snowfall. The snow depth variation is mainly influenced by winter snowfall trends during spring and summer. Furthermore, the negative trends (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) in summer snowfall are mainly influenced by the increase (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) summer temperatures. The study aids in understanding the complexity and inconsistencies of snow cover changes under the combined effects of climate change and altitudes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 501-511"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Declining autumn zero-curtain duration in the Headwater Area of the Yellow River (2011–2024)","authors":"Dong-Liang Luo ,&nbsp;Shi-Zhen Li ,&nbsp;Yan-Lin Zhang ,&nbsp;Hui-Jun Jin ,&nbsp;Qing-Feng Wang ,&nbsp;Fang-Fang Chen ,&nbsp;Jia Liu ,&nbsp;Chen-Yang Peng ,&nbsp;Ya-Juan Zao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The zero-curtain period (ZCP), occuring during seasonal freeze‒thaw cycles, plays a crucial role in energy and water exchanges, biogeochemical and hydrological cycles, and ecosystem dynamics. However, its temporal variations and controlling factors remain poorly understood, particularly in high-altitude regions of the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau (QXP). This study investigates the ZCP within seasonal freeze‒thaw cycles in the central Headwater Area of the Yellow River (HAYR), using high-precision soil temperature observations from two seasonally frozen ground sites (TCM-2 and ZLH-WS) in 2011–2024. Results demonstrate that at TCM-2, the thawed duration generally decreases with depth, ranging from 163.2 d at 200 cm to 183.6 d at 20 cm, with no significant temporal trends. At ZLH-WS, the thawed duration was 13.2–33.8 d longer than that at TCM-2 but exhibits a distinct decreasing trend in 2016–2023. ZCP duration exhibits strong, albeit contrasting, correlations with soil water storage (SWS) at both sites, negative at TCM-2 (<em>R</em> = −0.86, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01) and positive at ZLH-WS (<em>R</em> = 0.83, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01). Notably, the highest recorded soil unfrozen water content in 2019 corresponded to an extended ZCP duration. ZCPs were observed during both thawing and freezing periods. The duration of the freezing period ZCP showed a marked temporal decline, particularly near the maximum frost penetration (MFP) depth and becoming more pronounced at greater depths. A substantial reduction in ZCP duration was detected in the middle and lower portions of the MFP at both sites, with decreasing rates of −1.86 d per year (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.001) at TCM-2 and −2.7 d per year (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.001) at ZLH-WS. These findings suggest that the shortening ZCP altered subsurface water phase dynamics, potentially leading to reduced water retention capacity within the shallow frozen ground profile. This highlights the significant implications of ongoing frozen ground degradation for subsurface hydrology in seasonally frozen ground.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 538-551"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interplay between snow phenology and vegetation phenology in Alaska under climate change","authors":"Ya-Qiong Mu ,&nbsp;Tao Che ,&nbsp;Li-Yun Dai ,&nbsp;Shi-Wei Liu ,&nbsp;Gui-Gang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Snow cover is one of the most important factors controlling Arctic ecosystems' microclimate and plant growth conditions in Arctic ecosystems. Climate change has impacted the timing and spatial variability of both snow cover, and worldwide vegetation phenology across the globe. However, the mechanisms by which snowpack factors regulate the onset of the growing season remain to be thoroughly investigated, particularly under varying climatic conditions and growth stages. In this study, we investigated the influence of snow characteristics on vegetation phenology across different growth stages. Specifically, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation and snow phenology in Alaska from 2001 to 2021, assessed the partial correlations between key phenological groups under controlled temperature and precipitation conditions, and quantified the contributions of climatic variables and snow cover to vegetation phenology across various growth-cycle phases. The results revealed that grassland and forest phenology responded strongly to variations in snowmelt timing (<em>r</em> &gt; 0.5, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). In contrast, although phenological responses in wetlands were also statistically significant (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05), the average correlation was weaker (mean <em>r</em> ≈ 0.45). Temperature was found to be the primary driver of vegetation phenology change during the peak growth periods, whereas snow temperature and depth were crucial drivers during the transitional growth phases. From 2001 to 2021, the changes in vegetation phenology in Alaska were more pronounced than those in snow dynamics. Notwithstanding the significant role of other co-varying drivers of vegetation-phenological shifts, the influence of snow phenology was crucial. This study elucidates the role of snowpack phenology in regulating vegetation dynamics under changing climatic conditions and growth cycles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 490-500"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantification of selected SDGs in the context of China's climate mitigation pathway","authors":"Chen-Min He ,&nbsp;Ke-Jun Jiang ,&nbsp;Yu-Jie Jiao ,&nbsp;Pian-Pian Xiang ,&nbsp;Xiang-Yang Xu ,&nbsp;Wei-Yi Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China has set targets for achieving peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality, supporting the global climate change mitigation targets. Meanwhile, after the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were established in 2015, China developed a national strategy for reaching them. This study aims to reveal the close relationship between energy transition, climate change mitigation and achieving SDGs. We presented the linkages between the climate change mitigation pathways and SDGs, by using the Integrated Energy and Environment Policy Assessment Model for China (IPAC). The energy transition pathways towards global net zero emissions and national carbon neutrality targets are presented as climate change mitigation pathways, with quantitative results of CO₂ emissions, energy mix and electricity demand. The pathway explores the quantitative analysis of the contributions of the climate mitigation and energy transition on achieving selected SDGs. The results show that the energy structure would change remarkably in the energy transition pathways under the climate targets, with 65% drop of fossil fuels in 2060 compared with 2020 level, and the rapid increase in renewable and nuclear powers. According to the results of the selected SDGs, under the mitigation pathway for China, it could also pave the way for sustainable development in not only energy supply side (growing of clean and low-carbon energies), but also energy demand side, including industry (optimizing material/resource utilization efficiency), building (improving proportion of population with clean energies and technologies), and transport sectors (increasing traffic turnover). Besides the global climate effects (SDG 13), local actions and measures aimed at meeting climate mitigation goals also generate domestic co-benefits, supporting progress toward SDG 3 about good health (air pollutants will drop 39%–62% cross different pollutants by 2030 compared from 2015 level), SDG 6 about clean water (water demand for some industries will drop fast due to the technologies replacement and update), SDG 7 about clean energy (proportion of population with primary reliance on clean will increase to 65.9% in 2030), SDG 8 about economic growth (materials consumption per GDP will drop 62% in 2030 from 2015 level), SDG 9 about industry (transport volumes will increase 52%–258% by 2030 compared to 2015 level), SDG 11 about sustainable cities, and SDG 12 about responsible production and consumption (recycled materials will increase about 15% in 2030 from 2015 level). The close connections between China's climate mitigation strategies and these SDGs highlight the importance of integrating policies and measures related to both climate goals and SDG targets. Such integration implicates the potential to enhance synergies and lower the overall cost of implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 623-635"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Associations of compound hot extremes and heat waves with first-ever stroke morbidity in the context of climate change","authors":"Chen-Lu Yang ,&nbsp;Ming-Wei Wang ,&nbsp;Zhou-Peng Ren ,&nbsp;Yi-Ke Li ,&nbsp;Yong-Lin Hou ,&nbsp;Cun-Rui Huang ,&nbsp;Jun-Zhe Bao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of abnormal weather, with current daytime and nighttime temperatures being higher than their historical counterparts. Previous studies have focused on exploring the health hazards of absolute heat (above the optimum temperature, often calculated on the basis of short periods of current data). However, the health hazards of climate change–induced relative heat (above the extremes of historical counterparts, often calculated on the basis of 30 years of temperature data or more) are unclear. Therefore, this study aims to explore the associations of different types (daytime only, nighttime only and combined daytime–nighttime) of heat and heat waves with stroke morbidity in consideration of human climate adaptation. The data of patients with stroke were obtained from Shenzhen, China, for the period of 2003–2018. Daytime and nighttime heat thresholds for specific calendar days in the study period were defined on the basis of hourly temperatures for long-term counterparts, which were the day and 7 d before and after each calendar day in the historical baseline (1973–2002). The associations of different types of heat and heat waves defined by bivariate heat thresholds with stroke morbidity were explored by using distributed lag nonlinear models. Relevant vulnerable populations and sensitive disease subtypes were identified through stratified analyses. Compound hot extremes and heat waves (combined daytime and nighttime heat and heat waves) were associated with stroke morbidity, with relative risks (RRs) of 1.279 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.078, 1.519) and 1.500 (95% CI: 1.142, 1.969), respectively, and attributable fractions (AFs) of 1.658% (95% CI: 0.548%, 2.594%) and 0.970% (95% CI: 0.362%, 1.432%), respectively. Associations between heat and heat waves during daytime only and nighttime only with stroke morbidity were statistically insignificant. Males, females and adults aged under and over 65 years were vulnerable to compound hot extremes and heat waves, and the differences between subgroups were statistically insignificant. Ischaemic stroke was the subtype sensitive to compound hot extremes and heat waves with RRs of 1.338 (95% CI: 1.101, 1.626) and 1.553 (95% CI: 1.138, 2.119), respectively, and AFs of 1.956% (95% CI: 0.709%, 2.982%) and 1.064% (95% CI: 0.363%, 1.578%), respectively, whereas haemorrhagic stroke had statistically insignificant associations. Compound hot extremes and heat waves may lead to an increased risk of stroke morbidity in the context of climate change. Governments should emphasise the forecasting and warning of compound hot weather with temperatures higher than the extremes of long-term historical counterparts to reduce associated disease burdens.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 425-432"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methods","authors":"Xuan-Jia Li ,&nbsp;Xiao-Qing Peng ,&nbsp;Oliver W. Frauenfeld ,&nbsp;Guang-Shang Yang ,&nbsp;Wei-Wei Tian ,&nbsp;Yuan Huang ,&nbsp;Gang Wei ,&nbsp;Guan-Qun Chen ,&nbsp;Cui-Cui Mu ,&nbsp;Hao Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous permafrost extent estimates applied one or two methods to calculate the permafrost area, and the uncertainties between the methods were not assessed. Here, we apply seven methods to estimate and project global permafrost area extent and discuss the uncertainties of each approach. These methods are forced with output from CMIP6 and ERA5-Land, and we quantify the seven methods’ differences and uncertainties. During the historical period (1981–2010), the mean global permafrost area from multiple methods is 14.1 ± 4.5 × 10⁶ km², with differences ranging from 2.1% to 31.2%. The variability in future permafrost area extent degradation relative to the historical period based on different methods ranges from 1.8% to 34.7%. Uncertainties in permafrost area extent estimates can reach 35% based on different methods. Under various future emission pathways (<em>e.g.</em>, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) projects a permafrost extent of only 1.3–8.2 × 10⁶ km² for 2070–2099, corresponding to area decreases of 51.2%–86.9%. Spatially, permafrost near the lower-latitude permafrost boundary may completely disappear by the end of the 21st century, while degradation in the circum-Arctic, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and Antarctica will be smaller, but still exceed 50% under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). Compared to the temperature distribution of existing permafrost maps, the temperature at top of permafrost model and the surface frost index using ground temperature adjusted for snow methods perform best. However, compared to <em>in-situ</em> boreholes, two generalized linear model approaches have the best overall accuracy. These uncertainties using different methods are important to recognize in assessments of the future state of permafrost degradation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 312-323"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Degradation of potential winter roads threatens vulnerable communities’ freight accessibility in the pan-Arctic region","authors":"Li-Yuan Chen ,&nbsp;Wen-Quan Zhu ,&nbsp;Cun-De Xiao ,&nbsp;Cen-Liang Zhao ,&nbsp;Hong-Xiang Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Winter roads, which are seasonal roads built on frozen surfaces, serve as a socio-economic lifeline in the pan-Arctic region but are sensitive to amplified Arctic warming. Potential winter roads (PWRs) refer to areas where environmental conditions are suitable for forming the frozen foundation of winter roads. These roads are used to support various vehicles for diverse transportation purposes. However, PWRs for different vehicles (PWRDVs) have not been systematically identified, and the impact of changes in PWRs for freight vehicles on community freight accessibility remains unclear. This study quantified changes in PWRDVs in the pan-Arctic region during the water years 2003–2022 and assessed community freight accessibility under these changes. Results indicate that PWRs for heavier vehicles exhibited smaller areas (ranging from (6.32−8.02) × 10⁶ km² as multi-year averages), shorter durations (ranging from 160 to 180 d for areal and multi-year averages), and more severe degradation. Degraded PWRDVs were primarily observed in the Eurasian Arctic. PWRDV areas decreased by (1.6–3.7) × 10⁴ km² per year (2%–6% per decade). Shortened durations occurred in 8%–21% of PWRDVs, with average reductions of (1.30–2.03) d per year (7%–13% per decade). Some degradation trends were more pronounced than previously documented long-term trends, suggesting accelerated degradation in recent years. Without artificial improvements to other transportation infrastructure, the degradation of PWRs for freight vehicles led to reduced freight accessibility, with improvements in accessibility through PWRs decreasing by 2%–73% per decade in 155 communities, most of which were considered vulnerable due to their relatively large populations and remoteness. These findings provide insights into changes in winter roads and can help enhance the resilience of winter roads and communities to climate change in the pan-Arctic region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 381-396"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}