Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Land–atmosphere feedbacks weaken the risks of precipitation extremes over Australia in a warming climate","authors":"Mei-Yu Chang ,&nbsp;Zhi-Yan Zuo ,&nbsp;Liang Qiao ,&nbsp;Kai-Wen Zhang ,&nbsp;Bo Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The importance of land–atmosphere feedbacks on regional precipitation changes has been recently noted. However, how land–atmosphere feedbacks shape daily precipitation distributions, particularly the tails of precipitation distributions associated with extreme events, remains unclear on a regional scale. Herein, using the latest land–atmosphere coupling experiments, this study reveals a consistent weakening effect of land–atmosphere feedbacks on the future increase in precipitation extremes over Australia, revealing the most pronounced reduction (56.8%) for the long-term (2080–2099) projection under the low emission (SSP1-2.6) scenario. This weakening effect holds true for shifts in the extreme tail of precipitation distribution, resulting in a reduced risk of precipitation extremes in a warming climate. Land‒atmosphere feedbacks offset 28%–60% of the occurrence risk for the 99th percentile of daily precipitation, with the largest reduction of 172% when precipitation exceeds the 99.7th percentile in the long-term projection under the high emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario. Considering less water replenishment, these feedbacks may reduce the risk of flooding but potentially expedite droughts, highlighting the role of land–atmosphere feedbacks in extreme event projection and regional climate adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 859-868"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of extreme seasonal drought on ecosystem carbon‒water coupling across China","authors":"Meng-Tian Huang,&nbsp;Pan-Mao Zhai","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Water use efficiency (WUE) is a critical evaluation indicator of ecosystem responses to climate change and its extremes. However, the influence of the timing of extreme drought on the variation of ecosystem WUE under severe water stress has not been studied extensively. In particular, the modulation of drought impacts on WUE under regional hydro-climatic conditions and biome types is poorly understood. Considering observation-based ecosystem flux and drought index datasets, this study examined the impact of extreme seasonal drought on WUE in China and attempted to reveal the underlying drivers of seasonal variations in drought impacts. Results showed that the direction and magnitude of drought impacts on WUE depend on the occurrence time of extreme drought and the seasonal dynamics of regional ecological and climatic conditions. Across the vegetated regions in China, the most widespread reduction in WUE under extreme drought conditions was observed in summer, whereas approximately 60% of the study area showed positive changes in WUE under extreme drought conditions in spring. Furthermore, the co-regulation of drought characteristics and background environmental conditions in determining the impacts of extreme seasonal drought on ecosystem WUE is highlighted. Classification and regression tree analysis results illustrate that leaf area index (LAI) and drought timing dominated ecosystem WUE variation in response to extreme drought in China. Regions with lower LAI experienced more serious reductions in WUE under extreme drought. These findings indicate the importance of accounting for the interaction between drought seasonality and biome features in assessing drought impacts, thus contributing to improving the modelling of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate extremes under global warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 914-923"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combined impacts of aerosols and urbanization on a highly threatened extreme precipitation event in Beijing, China","authors":"Tai-Chen Feng ,&nbsp;Tian-Gang Yuan ,&nbsp;Zhi-Yuan Hu ,&nbsp;Tie-Jun Xie ,&nbsp;Shen Lai ,&nbsp;Wen-Jie Dong ,&nbsp;Jian-Ping Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>On July 21, 2012, a catastrophic precipitation event occurred in Beijing, highlighting the serious threat of extreme precipitation on socio-economic development and human health under climate change. Nevertheless, whether, how and to what extent aerosols and urbanization, as the two main influencing factors of urban extreme precipitation, have affected this highly damaging extreme event remains largely unexplored. Here, we employed the weather research and forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) and a single-layer urban canopy model to investigate the influences of urbanization, aerosols and their interactions on this extreme precipitation event. We found that the joint intensification effects of urbanization and aerosols on extreme precipitation events greatly enhance its negative influence on megacities. The results indicate that aerosols are enhanced by increasing cloud droplet numbers, thereby intensifying the feedback between precipitation and latent heating. Consequently, the total precipitation increased by 22.6%, raising the precipitation in the Beijing area increase by at least 50 mm. By stimulating atmospheric instability and strengthening vertical air motion (over 0.25 m s⁻¹), the urban heat island effect considerably influences the temporal and spatial distributions of extreme precipitation events, resulting in an increase in warm cloud precipitation (80%) and a decrease (30%) in frontal precipitation. Consequently, joint intensification effects resulted in more concentrated precipitation in the southwest of Beijing, leading to a substantial increase (more than 40%, ∼80 mm). This condition may be an important reason for the most severe disasters in the southwest of Beijing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 883-893"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relative contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic components on Southeast Asia future precipitation changes from different multi-GCM ensemble members","authors":"Sheau Tieh Ngai ,&nbsp;Srivatsan V. Raghavan ,&nbsp;Jing Xiang Chung ,&nbsp;Bhenjamin Jordan Ona ,&nbsp;Lucian Taft Kimbrell ,&nbsp;Ngoc Son Nguyen ,&nbsp;Thanh-Hung Nguyen ,&nbsp;Senfeng Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To address the gap in understanding precipitation changes in Southeast Asia and to enhance the reliability of climate projections for the region through moisture budget analysis, this study examines the differences among six multi-model ensembles of CMIP6 simulated precipitation in term of moisture budget analysis. It investigates the relative contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic components to seasonal precipitation changes over Southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario, SSP5-8.5. The comparison between ensembles indicates that Good performance model ensembles slightly outperform the combination of all resolution and all category ensembles in reducing the biases. There is no strong evidence showing that good category ensembles outperform the combination of all model ensemble groups in simulating the spatial pattern of historical seasonal precipitation. From the perspective of moisture budget, regions receiving seasonal high rainfall intensity are mainly influenced by the moisture convergence during the monsoon seasons: northeast monsoon (December‒January‒February) and southwest monsoon (June–July–August). By the late 21st century (2081–2100), all model ensemble projections show an increase in December‒January‒February precipitation over the northern Southeast Asia and decreased June‒July‒August rainfall in the southern regions. The moisture budget analysis explained that the seasonal mean rainfall change in Southeast Asia is largely influenced by evaporation and followed by moisture flux convergence. The changes in moisture flux convergence are contributed by both the dynamic and thermodynamic components. Greater inter-model uncertainty was found in the precipitation dynamic component compared to the thermodynamic component suggesting the existence of large discrepancy between the various approaches used by GCMs in describing atmospheric dynamics. The study highlights that the Good model ensemble with middle to low resolution is able to narrow the inter-model uncertainties in terms of the moisture budget analysis compared to the combination of all Good model ensembles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 869-882"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhanced precipitation responses over the Tibetan Plateau following future Tambora-size volcanic eruption","authors":"Xin-Jun Gan ,&nbsp;Lin-Shan Yang ,&nbsp;Meng Zuo ,&nbsp;Fei Liu ,&nbsp;Chao-Chao Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydroclimate over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) notably influences the eco-environment of the Northern Hemisphere. Given its high elevation and complex topography, the climate in the TP shows a high sensitivity to anthropogenic warming and volcanic-induced cooling. The mechanism by which a future volcanic or similar radiative perturbation affects precipitation in the TP under an anthropogenic warming climate must be addressed not only to enable regional adaptation but deepen our understanding of how a climate system evolves under such a dual force. Here, based on the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 and ensemble simulations under pre-industrial and RCP8.5 scenarios, we showed that a Tambora-sized volcanic perturbation led to severe rainfall reduction over the south TP in the following summer (June–August). Evaporation response accounted for a minor and relatively constant share of precipitation reduction following the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling, whereas dynamic processes triggered an El Niño-like response in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which suppressed the Walker and Hadley circulation and contributed to drying anomalies. Global warming renders the post-Tambora hydroclimate responses with 30% higher severity as a result of the increased climatological moisture content and intensified El Niño response, which enhanced hydroclimate sensitivity and attenuated monsoon circulation. The results illustrate the amplification effect of global warming on the plateau's hydroclimate responses to external forcings, which may add another layer of uncertainty on climate adaptation in this already complex region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 845-858"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142698365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of hydrogen supply and demand in China's energy transition towards carbon neutrality","authors":"Qian-Zhi Zhang ,&nbsp;Li-Ning Wang ,&nbsp;Wen-Ying Chen ,&nbsp;Cheng-Long Zhang ,&nbsp;Kang-Li Xiang ,&nbsp;Jin-Yu Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The role of hydrogen in the transition to carbon-neutral energy systems will be influenced by key factors such as carbon neutrality pathways, hydrogen production technology costs, and hydrogen transportation costs. Existing studies have not comprehensively analyzed and compared the impact of these key factors on the development of hydrogen supply and demand under China's carbon neutrality pathways. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with an upgraded hydrogen module to evaluate the development potential of China's hydrogen industry, considering various carbon neutrality pathways as well as hydrogen production and transportation costs. The findings indicate that, by 2050, hydrogen could account for 8%–14% of final energy, averting 1.0–1.7 Bt of carbon emissions annually at an average mitigation cost of 85–183 USD t⁻¹CO₂. The total hydrogen production is projected to reach 75–135 Mt, with 34%–56% from renewable energy electrolysis and about 15%–29% from fossil fuel-based CCS. On a sectoral level, by 2050, the hydrogen demand in the industrial and transportation sectors is expected to reach 37–63 Mt and 30–42 Mt, with a potential reduction of about 0.6–0.9 BtCO₂ and 0.5–0.6 BtCO₂. The share of hydrogen in the final energy of the steel and chemical sectors is estimated to be 9%–19% and 17%–25%, collectively accounting for 36%–42% of total hydrogen demand and 46%–50% of total emission reduction potential. Realizing hydrogen's emission reduction potential relies on the rapid development of hydrogen production, transportation, and utilization technologies. Firstly, the development of on-site electrolysis for hydrogen production and early deployment of industrial hydrogen applications should be prioritized to stimulate overall growth of hydrogen industry and cost reduction. Secondly, vigorous development of renewable energy electrolysis and hydrogen end-use technologies like fuel cells should be pursued, along with the demonstration and promotion of hydrogen transportation technologies. Lastly, further advancement of carbon market mechanisms is essential to support the widespread adoption of hydrogen technologies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 5","pages":"Pages 924-935"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142697584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Critical environmental factors affecting mountain geohazards in a warming climate in Southwest China","authors":"Xiao-Ming Xu ,&nbsp;Peng Cui ,&nbsp;Xue-Qin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Environmental factors are essential input variables for susceptibility assessment models of mountain geohazards. However, the existing literature provides a limited understanding of the relative contribution of these factors to the occurrence of geohazards with a warming climate, posing tremendous challenges for risk management in mountainous areas. Ya'an city is susceptible to hazards because of its steep terrain, abundant precipitation and active seismic activity. In this regard, we utilise the GeoDetector model to extract critical environmental factors affecting the spatial patterns of mountain geohazards (<em>i.e</em>., landslide, debris flow and rockfall) in Southwest China. The analysis indicates that the factors with the highest explanatory power for the spatial distribution of landslides, debris flows, and rockfalls are soil property, extreme precipitation and extreme temperature, respectively. Notably, we revealed the synergistic effects among factors given their larger <em>q</em>-value than individual ones. We further explored the responses of mountain geohazards to climate change, including the rising temperature and precipitation, because the frequent occurrence of mountain geohazards is closely related to a warming climate. The variation in snow water equivalent caused by antecedent snowfall and snowdrifts acts as a crucial indicator for geohazards, highlighting the significance of snow and wind observations in meteorological nowcasting and disaster prewarning. We disclose the phenomenon of the geohazard hysteresis to the precipitation peak resulting from the top–down (<em>i.e</em>., precipitation-runoff and surface-deep soil moisture) peak shifts. Our work is expected to enhance the precision of susceptibility assessment models and the reliability of short-term forecasts for mountain geohazards.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 4","pages":"Pages 695-707"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824001060/pdfft?md5=45b4d786c5b8a43c85b103226bdd8764&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824001060-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141693848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association between heat and upper urinary tract stones morbidity and medical costs: A study in the subtropical humid climate zone","authors":"Chen-Lu Yang ,&nbsp;Jun-Zhe Bao ,&nbsp;Peng Bi ,&nbsp;Ya-Dong Zhang ,&nbsp;Chao-Ming Tan ,&nbsp;Kai Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urolithiasis is a heat-specific disease. Exploring heat-related urolithiasis susceptibility subtypes, economic burden, and modifying factors could assist governments in targeting interventions to reduce the heat-related health risks of urolithiasis morbidity. We collected data on 23,492 patients with upper urinary tract stones (main subtypes of urolithiasis) from 2013 to 2017 in Nanjing, China. We adopted generalized additive quasi-Poisson models to examine the associations between daily mean temperatures and morbidity of upper urinary tract stones, while generalized additive Gaussian models were used to explore the relationships between temperatures and log-transformed medical costs. We examined the modification effects of disease subtypes (kidney and ureteral calculus), sex, and age through stratified analyses and the modification effects of other meteorological factors by introducing interaction terms in the models. We found that short-term summer heat exposure has a statistically significant effect on ureteral calculus morbidity but not on kidney calculus morbidity. For ureter calculus, a 1 °C temperature increase was associated with a 4.36% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.94%, 6.83%) increase in daily hospitalization and a 5.44% (95% CI: 2.71%, 8.25%) increase in daily medical costs. The attributable fraction associated with heat (greater than the median value of daily mean temperature, 26.8 °C) was 7.85% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 3.64%, 11.44%) for hospitalization and 9.36% (95% eCI: 4.91%, 13.14%) for medical costs. The effects of heat on ureter calculus morbidity were significantly higher among the males and those with high sunshine duration than females and those with low sunshine duration. Short-term summer heat exposure was associated with increased morbidity and medical costs of ureteral calculus. Relevant government organizations should take effective intervention measures, including community health education, to reduce the health hazards and economic losses caused by heat.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 4","pages":"Pages 717-724"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824001011/pdfft?md5=4c7d89340edc4c588fcabc6c03247921&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824001011-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141689519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected near-surface wind speed and wind energy over Central Asia using dynamical downscaling with bias-corrected global climate models","authors":"Jin-Lin Zha ,&nbsp;Ting Chuan ,&nbsp;Yuan Qiu ,&nbsp;Jian Wu ,&nbsp;De-Ming Zhao ,&nbsp;Wen-Xuan Fan ,&nbsp;Yan-Jun Lyu ,&nbsp;Hui-Ping Jiang ,&nbsp;Kai-Qiang Deng ,&nbsp;Miguel Andres-Martin ,&nbsp;Cesar Azorin-Molina ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Wind energy development in Central Asia can help alleviate drought and fragile ecosystems. Nevertheless, current studies mainly used the global climate models (GCMs) to project wind speed and energy. The simulated biases in GCMs remain prominent, which induce a large uncertainty in the projected results. To reduce the uncertainties of projected near-surface wind speed (NSW) and better serve the wind energy development in Central Asia, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with bias-corrected GCMs was employed. Compared with the outputs of GCMs, dynamical downscaling acquired using the WRF model can better capture the high- and low-value centres of NSWS, especially those of Central Asia's mountains. Meanwhile, the simulated NSWS bias was also reduced. For future changes in wind speed and wind energy, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, NSWS during 2031–2050 is projected to decrease compared with that in 1986–2005. The magnitude of NSWS reduction during 2031–2050 will reach 0.1 m s⁻¹, and the maximum reduction is projected to occur over the central and western regions (&gt;0.2 m s⁻¹). Furthermore, future wind power density (WPD) can reveal nonstationarity and strong volatility, although a downward trend is expected during 2031–2050. In addition, the higher frequency of wind speeds at the turbine hub height exceeding 3.0 m s⁻¹ can render the plain regions more suitable for wind energy development than the mountains from 2031 to 2050. This study can serve as a guide in gaining insights into future changes in wind energy across Central Asia and provide a scientific basis for decision makers in the formulation of policies for addressing climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 4","pages":"Pages 669-679"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824001072/pdfft?md5=5c29fa2d929e47e53e1edfa4123fed9f&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824001072-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141691106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An assessment of the CMIP6 performance in simulating Arctic sea ice volume flux via Fram Strait","authors":"Hui-Yan Kuang ,&nbsp;Shao-Zhe Sun ,&nbsp;Yu-Fang Ye ,&nbsp;Shao-Yin Wang ,&nbsp;Hai-Bo Bi ,&nbsp;Zhuo-Qi Chen ,&nbsp;Xiao Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Numerical models serve as an essential tool to investigate the causes and effects of Arctic sea ice changes. Evaluating the simulation capabilities of the most recent CMIP6 models in sea ice volume flux provides references for model applications and improvements. Meanwhile, reliable long-term simulation results of the ice volume flux contribute to a deeper understanding of the sea ice response to global climate change. In this study, the sea ice volume flux through six Arctic gateways over the past four decades (1979–2014) were estimated in combination of satellite observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice motion (SIM) as well as the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) reanalysis sea ice thickness (SIT) data. The simulation capability of 17 CMIP6 historical models for the volume flux through Fram Strait were quantitatively assessed. Sea ice volume flux simulated from the ensemble mean of 17 CMIP6 models demonstrates better performance than that from the individual model, yet IPSL-CM6A-LR and EC-Earth3-Veg-LR outperform the ensemble mean in the annual volume flux, with Taylor scores of 0.86 and 0.50, respectively. CMIP6 models display relatively robust capability in simulating the seasonal variations of volume flux. Among them, CESM2-WACCM performs the best, with a correlation coefficient of 0.96 and a Taylor score of 0.88. Conversely, NESM3 demonstrates the largest deviation from the observation/reanalysis data, with the lowest Taylor score of 0.16. The variability of sea ice volume flux is primarily influenced by SIM and SIT, followed by SIC. The extreme large sea ice export through Fram Strait is linked to the occurrence of anomalously low air temperatures, which in turn promote increased SIC and SIT in the corresponding region. Moreover, the intensified activity of Arctic cyclones and Arctic dipole anomaly could boost the southward sea ice velocity through Fram Strait, which further enhance the sea ice outflow.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"15 4","pages":"Pages 584-595"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824000844/pdfft?md5=9bf6161d15c26a27c689d8a3175e2e5f&pid=1-s2.0-S1674927824000844-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142151952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}