Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Fragmentation of ground surface freezing processes in Northeast China from 1950 to 2022","authors":"Xi-Qiang Wang,&nbsp;Ren-Sheng Chen,&nbsp;Chun-Tan Han","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Current studies mainly employ the onset and end dates of freezing, freeze duration and freeze depth to describe the freeze state, often overlooking the discontinuous nature of the freezing process. In this study, the dynamics of the ground surface freezing processes in Northeast China (NEC) was systematically analysed using ERA5-Land reanalysis datasets from 1950 to 2022, and a new and fragmentation-focused perspective was adopted. The ground surface (0−7 cm in depth) temperature obtained from the ERA5-Land dataset performed well in detecting freeze days when compared with the observations (5 cm in depth) in NEC. From 1950 to 2022, the freezing processes in NEC became increasingly fragmented, with the number of freeze interruptions increasing at a rate of 0.04 times per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) and the freeze fragmentation degree rising at a rate of 0.07 times per 100 d per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01). Regional differences in the spatial and temporal variations of the freezing process fragmentation were also detected. Further analysis suggested that a significant increase (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05) in the number of freeze–thaw cycle events and thaw days within the shortened freeze period (−1.8 d per decade; <em>p</em> &lt; 0.01) may partially increase the probability of freezing process fragmentation. Moreover, the freeze fragmentation degree was positively and significantly correlated with air and skin temperatures (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01), while it was negatively and significantly correlated with snow cover duration and volumetric soil moisture (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 373-380"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping of the susceptibility of China‒Russia crude oil pipelines to water damage in permafrost regions in Northeast China","authors":"Wen-Hui Wang ,&nbsp;Hui-Jun Jin ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Jin ,&nbsp;Zi-Kang Ming ,&nbsp;Xin-Yu Li ,&nbsp;Yan Li ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Li ,&nbsp;Tao Zhan ,&nbsp;Guang-Yin Xue ,&nbsp;Fu-Qiang Che ,&nbsp;Gang-Yi Zhou ,&nbsp;Wei Wang ,&nbsp;Valetin V. Spektor ,&nbsp;Nikita Tananaev ,&nbsp;Moisei Zakharov ,&nbsp;David-R. Şerban ,&nbsp;Hong-Wei Wang ,&nbsp;Ze Zhang ,&nbsp;Leonid Gagarin ,&nbsp;Guo-Yu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In permafrost regions, climate warming and extreme precipitation events, combined with rugged local terrains, pose considerable threats of water damage to buried crude oil pipelines. However, the susceptibility to water damage in these areas has received limited attention and research. Aiming to evaluate the susceptibility to water damage (STWD) of the China‒Russia Crude Oil Pipelines (CRCOPs) I and II, random forest (RF) algorithms, correlation analysis of influencing factors and on-site surveys were employed. The assessment, based on RF algorithms, field survey data from 2019 to 2022 and 14 geographically related factors, reveals that approximately 14.5% of the study area demonstrates high STWD, indicating a generally low risk of STWD across most segments of the CRCOPs. The pipeline segments between Wu’erqi–Jagdaqi and Jingsong–Xinlin display the highest STWD. Areas with high STWD typically experience ample precipitation, flow accumulation in flat, low-lying terrains, low surface roughness, over unconsolidated deposits and warm (&gt;−1 °C) Xing’an (hemiboreal) permafrost and proximity to rivers. This study not only enhances theoretical understanding of mitigating water damage to pipeline foundations in cold regions but also offers important technical insights for the sustainable operation of these lifeline infrastructures. Future research should focus on continuous monitoring of pipeline foundation soil safety, improving numerical models for pipeline river crossing evaluations and refining water damage risks assessment through deep learning-based models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 284-297"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of modified parameterizations in CLM5.0 on soil hydrothermal dynamics in permafrost regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau","authors":"Shu-Hua Yang ,&nbsp;Lin Zhao ,&nbsp;Guo-Jie Hu ,&nbsp;Jian-Jun Cao ,&nbsp;Qing Huang ,&nbsp;Tong-Hua Wu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Dong Wu ,&nbsp;Yu-Xin Zhang ,&nbsp;Yi-Zhen Du ,&nbsp;Dong-Liang Li ,&nbsp;Jian Chen ,&nbsp;Ren Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate understanding and modeling of soil hydrothermal dynamics in permafrost regions is essential for reliably assessing future permafrost changes and their impacts. However, the inadequate representation of soil water‒heat transport processes in current land surface models (LSMs) introduces large uncertainty in simulating permafrost dynamics, particularly on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). In this study, we modified the parameterizations of soil thermal conductivity, unfrozen water and soil evaporation resistance in version 5.0 of the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) and assessed their effects on soil hydrothermal dynamics in permafrost regions on the QTP using <em>in-situ</em> measurements at the depths of 10–40 cm. The results showed that soil temperature was more sensitive to the modified soil thermal conductivity and unfrozen water schemes, with average RMSE reduced by approximately 0.60 °C compared to the default CLM5.0. Soil moisture was mainly affected by the unfrozen water scheme during freezing and by the optimized soil evaporation resistance scheme during thawing, with maximum accuracy improvements of 8% and 25%, respectively. All three schemes significantly improved soil thermal conductivity simulations, reducing RMSE by over 80%. Overall, our modifications remarkably reduced simulation errors compared to the default schemes, improving the average accuracy of soil temperature, soil moisture and soil thermal conductivity by approximately 16%, 21% and 81% respectively. Additionally, this study emphasized the importance of accurately representing permafrost-related processes in LSMs, as they significantly affected simulation results. Specifically, soil thermodynamics is strongly sensitive to subtle changes in soil moisture transport processes, such as the hysteresis effect of unfrozen water content, and parameterizations of snowpack and vegetation. Therefore, future work should focus on enhancing the accurate representations of these processes and optimized parameters in LSMs to improve the simulation accuracy in permafrost regions on the QTP. This study enhanced the understanding of soil hydrothermal processes in LSMs and provided valuable insights for the future model development for permafrost regions under the context of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 213-229"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the roles of recorded unprecedented rainfall-runoff characteristics and uplifted riverbeds in the catastrophic 2022 Pakistan megaflood","authors":"Nazir Ahmed Bazai ,&nbsp;Peng Cui ,&nbsp;Tahir Hussain ,&nbsp;Guo-Tao Zhang ,&nbsp;Yan Wang ,&nbsp;Muhammad Gulraiz Akhter ,&nbsp;Hao Wang ,&nbsp;Mehtab Alam","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Catastrophic floods triggered by extreme monsoonal rainfall have increasingly posed challenges in flood management, particularly in low-income nations like Pakistan. The 2022 megaflood exposed substantial gaps in understanding the interplay between rainfall, sediment dynamics, and flood amplification processes. This study investigates the causes and impacts of the event, focusing on floodwater sources, geomorphological changes, and future risks and mitigation strategies. A multifaceted approach combined with remote sensing, field observations, hydro-meteorological data, and climate models was employed. In July–August 2022, the lower Hindukush, Koh-e-Suleman, and Kirther ranges experienced rainfall of 200–300 mm, up to 726% above historical averages (1991–2021). This high-intensity rainfall triggered high-magnitude discharges from approximately 1250 streams, 58 % of which were primary contributors with discharge at 4000–5000 m³/s for nearly a month, causing 80%–85% of downstream damage and expanding the flooded area to 49,711 km². Some streams recorded 5–6 m flood levels, resulting in sedimentation deposition of 0.8–1 m in residential areas and about 2 m in the streambeds. Deposition downstream and along the Indus River reached 1.5–2 m, intensifying flood risks by reducing channel capacity and increasing water levels during flood events. Streambed uplift and sediment deposition emerged as critical factors amplifying flood magnitude, severity, and inundation, with floodwater levels rising by up to 2.4–3 m in some areas, posing severe risks for future events. These findings highlight the need to revise traditional flood risk models, which often overlook sediment dynamics and underscore the future challenges posed by ongoing sediment deposition and climate change, which are expected to exacerbate flood risks in the coming decades. The study emphasizes the importance of sediment management, river erosion control, and post-event interventions. Prioritizing flood management, enhancing early warning systems, and investing in resilient infrastructure are essential strategies to protect communities and ensure long-term safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 409-424"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting and evaluating slope stability in permafrost regions of the central Qinghai‒Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Fei Wang ,&nbsp;Bo Huang ,&nbsp;Mikhail Zhelezniak ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Li ,&nbsp;Alexander Zhirkov ,&nbsp;Qi-Hao Yu ,&nbsp;Zhi Wen","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Thermokarst landslides have frequently occurred in the central Qinghai‒Tibetan Plateau (QTP), endangering infrastructure and the environment. However, there have been no adequate methods to predict thermokarst landslides until now. Therefore, establishing a reliable slope stability evaluation method is paramount for hazard forewarning and prevention. In this study, we analyzed the distribution characteristics of thermokarst landslides based on historical landslide data from the central QTP. By applying threshold values for these distribution characteristics, non-thermokarst landslide areas were identified and masked. We then assessed and predicted the slope stability of permafrost regions using a permafrost slope stability calculation model combined with GIS software. The stability assessment results indicate that most of the masked study area is unstable. Compared to the initial state, the areas of unstable regions increased by 7.7%, 19.0%, and 29.5% for SSP126; 6.3%, 23.5%, and 37.3% for SSP245; and 14.1%, 32.6%, and 51.2% for SSP585 during the periods 2020–2040, 2040–2060, and 2060–2080, respectively. This increasing trend in unstable areas becomes even more pronounced when temperature and rainfall changes are considered. Under the SSP585 precipitation scenario, the areas of unstable regions from 2060 to 2080 increased by 52.9%, 52.5%, and 51.9% compared to only considering temperature variation scenarios. Additionally, we cross-validated the slope stability results from 2000 to 2020 with the thermokarst landslide susceptibility results. The overall distribution trends of unstable areas from both methods were broadly consistent, with a difference of only 7% in unstable area size. The correlation between the slope stability and landslide susceptibility evaluation results reached 0.76 (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). These cross-validation findings support the reliability of this paper's regional slope stability evaluation method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 230-239"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of snow cover on the cooling mechanism and performance in the crushed-rock interlayer embankment","authors":"Kun Xiang ,&nbsp;Aleksandr Zhirkov ,&nbsp;Zhi Wen ,&nbsp;Yuan Li ,&nbsp;Fei Wang ,&nbsp;Ming-Li Zhang ,&nbsp;Liangzhi Chen ,&nbsp;De-Sheng Li ,&nbsp;Xiao-Ying Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most researches assume snow cover as an unventilated thermal resistance to discuss its impacts on the crushed-rock interlayer embankment (CRIE). However, as a porous medium, its role in altering ventilation cooling remains elusive. We developed a numerical model particularly consisting of ventilated snow cover to investigate impacts on the cooling mechanisms and performance of CRIE under climate change. We found that the cooling performance is seriously underestimated if the ventilation of snow cover is ignored. Natural convection and forced convection coexist in cold seasons, and snow cover is conducive to the former, but not to the latter. Snow cover weakens the cooling performance depending on external wind speeds, ambient temperature and relevant properties of snow cover. Before the limit thickness (about 0.5 m) of snow cover, thermal insulation effect would be enhanced with snow cover thickening. On the contrary, it would be weakened and the cooling role increases relatively after the limit. The same goes for total natural convection strength over the entire period of snow cover. Increased snow cover porosity could enhance the cooling performance, while the increase of external wind speeds and extended duration of snow cover might warm the underlying permafrost. The findings provide a valuable reference for its application in snowy permafrost regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 257-272"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Higher CH4 production in permafrost while oxidation prevails in the active layer: Insights from a forest‒wetland ecotone in Northeast China","authors":"Xing-Feng Dong ,&nbsp;Chao Liu ,&nbsp;Miao Li ,&nbsp;Xiao-Dong Wu ,&nbsp;Zhi-Chao Zheng ,&nbsp;Xiang-Wen Wu ,&nbsp;Shu-Ying Zang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Continuous climate warming results in a deeper active layer and elevated CH₄ emissions. However, our knowledge about the CH₄ production and oxidation potentials in active layers and permafrost remains limited. This study explored the CH₄ production and oxidation potentials in these layers and their responses to temperature variations across two habitats in the Da Xing'an Mountains in northeast China. The results showed that the CH₄ production potential was higher in permafrost than in the active layer across forest and wetland habitats (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). The temperature sensitivity was greater in the active layer (1.98 ± 0.20 in forests, 3.42 ± 0.37 in wetlands) than in permafrost (1.59 ± 0.13 in forests, 2.08 ± 0.34 in wetlands). CH₄ oxidation potential was higher in the active layer than in permafrost (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). However, its temperature sensitivity was higher in permafrost (3.65 ± 0.76 in forests, 2.62 ± 0.50 in wetlands) than in the active layer (3.46 ± 0.66 in forests, 1.90 ± 0.32 in wetlands). The key abiotic driving these processes were pH and soil water content. Amongst microbial properties, CH₄ production was enhanced by the abundance of <em>mcr</em>A genes and methanogenic diversity rather than by community composition. On the contrary, CH₄ oxidation was influenced by <em>pmo</em>A gene abundance, methanotrophic diversity and community composition. Soil parameters and microbial factors accounted for 78% of the variance in CH₄ production and 60% in CH₄ oxidation potential. Overall, this study highlights the different production and oxidation potentials of CH₄ in the active layer and permafrost within a forest‒wetland ecotone, as well as their controlling factors. These findings emphasise the importance of considering changes in the active layer when modelling greenhouse gas emissions from permafrost regions under a warming climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 273-283"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of a high-resolution dataset of future monthly surface solar radiation by combining CMIP6 projections and satellite-based retrievals","authors":"Jun-Mei He ,&nbsp;Liang Hong ,&nbsp;Ning Lu ,&nbsp;Chang-Kun Shao ,&nbsp;Kun Yang ,&nbsp;Wen-Jun Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate projections of future surface solar radiation (SSR) are important for assessing the impacts of climate change and the potential of solar energy. However, climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) exhibit notable uncertainties in SSR projections. This study aims to develop a high quality monthly SSR dataset during 1850–2100 by synthesizing CMIP6 model projections and satellite-derived retrievals using a Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR) method. Five CMIP6 models are selected based on their historical performance in simulating SSR. The BLR method assigns gridded weights to each model based on how well the historical simulations matched the satellite-based SSR product (called ISCCP‒ITP‒CNN) over the period 1983–2014. The weighted multi-model ensemble is calculated to generate a synthesized long-term SSR dataset. Evaluation against ground-based observations during historical periods (1960–2017) shows that the synthesized SSR outperforms individual CMIP6 models and their original multi-model mean, with a reduced RMSE from 32 to 36 W/m² to 25 W/m² and a bias from 5 to 13 W/m² to −1 W/m² on monthly scales. The spatial patterns also agree well with the ISCCP‒ITP‒CNN (1983–2018). The high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) synthesized SSR dataset provides monthly projections over historical experiments and four future shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) during 1850–2100, representing future SSR changes and associated climate impacts. The dataset is expected to enhance simulations of land surface processes and solar energy applications under a variety of future climate scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 2","pages":"Pages 298-311"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Technology pathway to decarbonisation in the building sector based on a policy review of major economies","authors":"Jie Xiong ,&nbsp;Si-Yue Guo ,&nbsp;Xian Zhang ,&nbsp;Run-Ming Yao ,&nbsp;Pan-Yu Zhu ,&nbsp;Xue-Ting Peng ,&nbsp;Nian Yang ,&nbsp;Ya-Ting Zhang ,&nbsp;Mai Shi ,&nbsp;Xi Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building decarbonisation is crucial to achieve the carbon neutrality targets. Although many studies have been conducted, a gap remains in the research concerning technology development and policy design. This study conducted a comprehensive review of the decarbonisation pathways proposed by the ten largest economies globally for the building sector at the national level. By synthesising the relevant literature, a systemic framework of technologies applicable to the building sector is proposed, encompassing five major categories of technologies: energy efficiency, electrification and clean heating, on-site generation and flexible utilisation, green construction materials and processes, and sufficiency in operation and maintenance. An overview of each country’s emphasis on technological development, future expectations and prevailing trends in technology deployment is summarised and discussed. Most countries' policy documents address energy efficiency, electrification, and clean heating; however, the importance of flexibility and sufficiency warrants further emphasis. The balance among different technologies, the impacts of lock-in effects, and the considerations of equity and justice in renovation processes are critical concerns for the future deployment of technologies. This study can provide a meaningful reference for the following research phase and the development of pathways to decarbonise buildings for countries worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 183-198"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future changes in population exposure to intensified heatwaves over three major urban agglomerations in China based on excess heat factor","authors":"Qin-Yao Zhou ,&nbsp;Miao-Ni Gao ,&nbsp;Jing Yang ,&nbsp;Xin-Yue Sun ,&nbsp;Yan-Yu Lu ,&nbsp;Tong Jiang ,&nbsp;Bu-Da Su ,&nbsp;Tao Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwave events (HWs) have become more frequent and intense due to climate change and urbanization, posing risks to human health, yet the influence of rapid temperature fluctuation on human adaptation during these events remains insufficiently explored. This study identified HWs and estimated population exposure across three major urban agglomerations in eastern China based on the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), which accounts for the superposed effect of extreme heat and human adaptability in response to rapid temperature fluctuations. From 1961 to 2022, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region and Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) suffered from moderate HWs with higher frequency and shorter duration, while HWs in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region were characterized by lower frequency and longer duration. Compared to EHF, the conventional approach that uses single temperature criteria to identify HWs tends to underestimate their intensity without accounting for the effects of sudden temperature rises on human adaptability. Based on the downscaled ensemble of 23 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), HWs and population exposure are expected to increase across the three urban agglomerations in the near-term (2025–2035) and mid-term (2055–2065) future, with GBA experiencing the greatest rise in HW days. However, YRD will have the highest population exposure due to its large population. During the projected explosive growth of severe/extreme HW days, low and intermediate GHG emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5) could potentially avoid 29%/45%, 28%/42% and 44%/96% of the increase in population exposure to these events across the BTH, YRD, and GBA, respectively, in the mid-term future, compared to high GHG emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Further analysis reveals that the expected increase in HWs in GBA and BTH is attributable to the combined effect of intensified temperature variability and warming, while the changes in HWs in YRD are primarily driven by rising temperatures. The results emphasize the urgent need to develop resilience to HWs in a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"Pages 12-24"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}