Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

{"title":"Uncovering the potential of coal-to-nuclear in the energy low-carbon transition","authors":"Ying Zhou ,&nbsp;Dai-Wei Li ,&nbsp;Shi-Ping Ma ,&nbsp;Bo-Qun Lyu ,&nbsp;Sheng Zhou ,&nbsp;Cheng-Zhe Yu ,&nbsp;Jun-Ling Huang ,&nbsp;Xi-Liang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Advancing power sector decarbonization represents one of the most direct and effective measures in carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. Replacing to-be-retired coal fired power generation with nuclear ones, also known as coal-to-nuclear conversion (C2N), has been recently discussed as an economical technology pathway in this regard. The provincial development potential of C2N in China, which may vary by natural conditions and the establishment of future standards, remains to be determined. This study analyzed this potential using a multistep process. This study newly established a comprehensive database of China's coal-fired power plants and designed an evaluation system for C2N with constraints from dimensions including earthquake geology, population density, and water availability. This is followed by a multi-scenario analysis of the potential, based on China's actual conditions and different C2N approaches. The results show that: C2N is a feasible pathway in China's low-carbon transition, with population density being the primary influencing factor on the total potential available. Under the considered constraints, the site potentials for conversion into Large Reactors (LRs) and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) is approximately 56 and 979 GW, respectively, if China could expand inland nuclear deployment. With the continuation of current policy and inland nuclear development constrained, there would be no potential remaining for LRs, while potentials for SMRs would reduce by 94% to 55 GW, illustrating the decisive impact of inland nuclear policy on China's prospects of C2N. Further, under the two conversion approaches of complete replacement and partial replacement, the potential sites for LRs would be 6 and 10 GW, respectively, while the potential sites for SMRs would be 502 and 244 GW, respectively, suggesting major development potential of SMRs in China if C2N is allowed. This study is valuable for the early quantification of the provincial C2N development potential in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 421-430"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Scalable rain–snow discrimination in glacierized regions using tower observations and time-lapse imagery","authors":"Wei-Wei Lyu ,&nbsp;Yan-Jun Che ,&nbsp;Yun Cao ,&nbsp;Shi-Jin Wang ,&nbsp;Lin Liu ,&nbsp;Xing-Gang Ma ,&nbsp;Fan-Geng Hu ,&nbsp;Yi-Fang Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Precipitation plays a crucial role in controlling glacier mass balance, yet accurately distinguishing rainfall from snowfall in high-altitude glacierized regions remains difficult due to the limits of in situ observations. To address this challenge, a hybrid approach integrating meteorological tower measurements with time-lapse camera imagery was developed for rapid and reliable precipitation phase identification, applied on Yulong Snow Mountain from August 1, 2019 to July 11, 2021. Based on the Exponential Double-Temperature Threshold Method (EBTM), the results revealed a sharp phase transition from snowfall to rainfall between −1.5 and 3 °C. Additionally, a critical threshold of 0.25 °C was identified using the Mathematical-Statistical Method (MEM). Comparisons with other widely used methods suggest that EBTM is the most accurate for quantifying the amount for different precipitation phase, and the MEM provides a quick identification the phase classification. It was noted that all models show reduced performance within the narrow transition range of −1 to 2 °C. Overall, this study demonstrates that the proposed hybrid method is cost-effective and adaptable, thus holding broad potential for application in other high-altitude, data-scarce regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 284-296"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intensified melting in the Arctic lower troposphere from 1979 to 2023","authors":"Yu-Jie Zhou,&nbsp;Rui Zhou,&nbsp;Gao-Jie Xu,&nbsp;Guo-Hang Yu,&nbsp;Jian-Bin Huang,&nbsp;Ting-Feng Dou","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ice melting in the atmosphere has far-reaching impacts on cloud microphysical properties, precipitation intensity and type. However, this issue remains largely unexplored in the Arctic. This study adopted the melting level (ML) as a metric to investigate the changes in atmospheric ice over the Arctic over 1979–2023. The results showed that the melting level height (MLH) rose by an average of 28.0 m per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01) across the Arctic. The largest increase in MLH was observed in the North Atlantic and North Pacific sectors, as well as over the New Siberian Islands and their surrounding areas. Further analysis indicated that sea ice retreat played an essential role in the long-term trend of MLH during the freezing period, whereas the interannual variability of MLH was largely regulated by atmospheric rivers (ARs). Moreover, the atmospheric melting extent migrated poleward at a rate of 53.9 km per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.01) and lay farther north than the surface 0 °C isotherm, which may lead to widespread freezing-rain events in high-latitude regions. With these changes in ML, the cloud properties and the different types of precipitation have been undergoing pronounced changes in the Arctic, which has had a profound impact on the local snow and ice processes and ecological environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 262-270"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Negligible global but substantial regional effect of vegetation greening on the 21st century permafrost","authors":"You-Hua Ran ,&nbsp;Bing-Quan Wang ,&nbsp;Jun-Fei Li ,&nbsp;Yi-Bo Liu ,&nbsp;Feng Tian ,&nbsp;Tao Che ,&nbsp;Hui-Jun Jin ,&nbsp;Mou-Song Wu ,&nbsp;Yong-Hong Yi ,&nbsp;Xin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vegetation, as a key component of terrestrial ecosystems, influences surface energy, carbon and water balances, and indirectly affects permafrost dynamics. However, under the background of climate warming, the potential impact of future vegetation greening on permafrost remains unclear. This study employs a well-trained ensemble machine learning model to assess the effect of vegetation greening on permafrost ground temperature and extent throughout this century. The results show that, overall, vegetation greening in permafrost regions over the Northern Hemisphere will lead to a warming in mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) of permafrost by 0.01–0.02 °C, and a reduction in the area of permafrost by (2.5–6.7) × 10⁴ km² by the end of the 21st century, compared to a scenario without increases in leaf area index (LAI) under four shared socioeconomic pathways. This finding indicates that the impact of vegetation greening on permafrost at global scale is negligible. However, the impact at regional or local scales is substantial and depends on both the magnitude of LAI change and vegetation type. Under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the heating effect is dominated in most shrub‒tundra areas averaging 0.2 ± 0.1 °C and potentially reaching up to 0.8 °C. In contrast, the effect in grassland tundra areas is predominantly cooling, with an average of 0.1 ± 0.05 °C (potentially reaching up to 0.6 °C), and only occurring under SSP5-8.5. The results provide a more comprehensive perspective on how future vegetation greening influences permafrost dynamics, highlighting its multi-scale effects and offering critical implications for understanding the permafrost response to climate change, the carbon cycle, and ecological-hydrological effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 297-307"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prevailing thermal models underestimate permafrost thermal state in the Tibetan Plateau: Implications for cryosphere adaptation","authors":"Yu-Feng Zhao ,&nbsp;Ying-Ying Yao ,&nbsp;Hui-Jun Jin ,&nbsp;Tai-Hua Wang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Dong Wu ,&nbsp;Xian-Hong Meng ,&nbsp;Chun-Miao Zheng ,&nbsp;Da-Wen Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding thermal dynamics of permafrost is essential for maintaining the cryosphere eco-hydrological system and infrastructure. The mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) serves as a key indicator calculated by thermal models to assess the extent of permafrost degradation. However, the ability of these models to accurately represent real thermal changes, along with the uncertainties and sensitivities involved, remains unclear limiting global permafrost projection and adaptations. This study focuses on a representative permafrost basin in the Tibetan Plateau to quantify the biases, sensitivities, and uncertainties of two widely used thermal models—empirical equilibrium models and transient numerical models using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. Our results reveal that thermal models originally developed for Arctic permafrost may underestimate the MAGT of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau, particularly in mountainous areas, due to the underestimation of soil water and ice content in thick unsaturated zones. Uncertainty analysis indicates that variations in thermal parameters can induce a MAGT variation range exceeding 6 °C, driven primarily by the parameter associated ground surface temperature to air temperature during freezing days. The models show different sensitivities to climate warming, under 1 °C warming, the empirical model’s MAGT response is 0.6 °C, double that of the transient model’s 0.3 °C response, which amplifies uncertainty in future projections. These findings highlight biases in widely used models for Tibetan Plateau permafrost, affecting tipping point projections and downstream ecohydrology, and call for the development of thermal models tailored to the region’s climate and hydrogeological conditions, supporting the global cryosphere modeling community.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 324-337"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal dynamics of polynyas and their relationships with phytoplankton blooms in the Ross Sea, Antarctica","authors":"Yi-Fan Wu ,&nbsp;Xi Zhao ,&nbsp;Yi Zhang ,&nbsp;Alfred Stein ,&nbsp;Zhao-Ru Zhang ,&nbsp;Li-Juan Song ,&nbsp;Bo Li ,&nbsp;Xue-Jiao Hou ,&nbsp;Xiao Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Phytoplankton bloom is closely tied to the seasonal evolution of Antarctic coastal polynyas, yet a phenology-based framework linking polynya dynamics to bloom spatiotemporal patterns and phase-specific environmental drivers has been missing. This study uses satellite-derived sea ice concentration and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data from 2002 to 2023 to examine the polynyas evolution in the Ross Sea and their relations with phytoplankton blooms. We characterize spatiotemporal polynya dynamics quantitatively based upon double-logistic functions and phenological metrics. Environmental drivers including photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), sea surface temperature (SST), wind speed (WS), and wind direction (WD) are integrated to assess their influence on different bloom phases. Results show significant increases in polynya areas (up to 1240.57 km² per year) from 2002 to 2023. Polynyas exhibit a spatial pattern of slow northward advance and rapid southward retreat. Over the past two decades, they have tended to advance earlier, retreat later, and have longer open water durations (∼6 d per decade). A strong positive correlation is found between polynya advance and bloom initiation, with regionally varying regression slopes exceeding 2 d per decade. Environmental drivers of Chl-a show distinct regional and phenological differences: in the Ross Sea Polynya, PAR is the dominant positive factor during both growth and decline phases, whereas SST and WD show significant negative effects during the decline phase. In the Terra Nova Bay Polynya, growth-phase Chl-a is significantly influenced by environmental variables. These findings enhance our understanding of polynya‒bloom interactions in the Ross Sea.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 371-387"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Possible linkage between sudden stratospheric warmings and transboundary aerosol transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Yu-Ling Hu ,&nbsp;Hai-Peng Yu ,&nbsp;Mian Xu ,&nbsp;Shi-Chang Kang ,&nbsp;Si-Yu Chen ,&nbsp;Jun-Hua Yang ,&nbsp;Xin-Tong Chen ,&nbsp;Ji-Xiang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>South Asian cross-border aerosols play a critical role in the climate change of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). While previous studies have investigated the transboundary transport of these aerosols primarily from a tropospheric perspective, there is still no systematic understanding of the linkage with anomalous stratospheric polar vortices. To address this gap, this study explores the potential linkage between sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) and transboundary aerosol transport from South Asia to the TP during 1984–2021 using reanalysis and observational datasets through composite analysis. The results show that both the vortex displacement-type and split-type SSWs are likely to decrease the cross-border aerosol transport from South Asia towards the TP. For vortex displacement-type SSWs, from day 0 to day 20 relative to the onset date, an anomalous anticyclone extends from the Persian Gulf towards northern China at 500 hPa and 300 hPa. Northeasterly anomalies dominate over the southern TP and northwestern South Asia at 500 hPa and 300 hPa, impeding the transport of aerosols from South Asia towards the TP. For vortex split-type SSWs, an anomalous anticyclone anchored over the Iranian Plateau induces persistent easterly anomalies across the southern TP and northern South Asia at 500 hPa and 300 hPa from day 10 to day 20 following the onset date of vortex split-type SSWs, hindering the transport of aerosols from South Asia towards the TP. This study not only deepens our understanding of climate change over the TP, but also has profound implications for protecting the ‘Third Pole’ and ensuring its ecological and water resource security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 271-283"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global electricity development and transition: Progress and assessment","authors":"Yuan-Bing Zhou ,&nbsp;Chen Chen ,&nbsp;Cai-Hao Liang ,&nbsp;Yi Gao ,&nbsp;Jin-Yu Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2026.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electricity is attracting widespread attention for its critical role in global socioeconomic development, the clean energy transition, and climate change mitigation. Based on a newly established global database and a multi-level, multi-dimensional assessment framework, this study systematically evaluates the current status and recent progress of global electricity development and transition. Since 2020, global electricity development and transition have been characterized by four trends: electrification of energy consumption, the shift to clean electricity generation, wide-area electricity allocation, and digital-intelligent system operation. In 2024, global electricity consumption grew by approximately 4%, surpassing the growth rates of both total energy consumption and the global economy (GDP). Concurrently, the global electrification rate reached around 20%, total installed generation capacity exceeded 9.4 TW, the total length of power grid lines surpassed 80 million km, and installed energy storage capacity reached approximately 290 GW, with all metrics setting new record highs. A key transition milestone was also achieved in 2024: clean energy accounted for over 50% of global total installed capacity for the first time. The global electricity carbon intensity saw the largest drop (3%) in a decade. This study further provides a quantitative outlook to 2030, projecting that clean energy will account for 67% of global installed capacity and 59% of electricity generation, thereby achieving a clean-dominated power supply structure. Finally, it also outlines recommendations such as prioritizing power system flexibility and climate resilience, advancing research on evolving system operational dynamics, promoting the fusion and widespread adoption of new technologies and models, and enhancing international cooperation for sharing cost-effective technologies, replicable models, and expertise to address ongoing challenges and advance global targets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 457-466"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hydrologic responses to hot droughts in the Yangtze River Basin","authors":"Yu Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Mang Liu ,&nbsp;Kai-Wen Wang ,&nbsp;Peng Bai ,&nbsp;Xin-Yu Li ,&nbsp;Hai-Ning Jiang ,&nbsp;Dan Zhang ,&nbsp;Zheng-Jie Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hot droughts, defined as droughts concomitant with high temperatures, pose a greater threat to water resources than droughts alone. However, the hydrologic responses to hot droughts and their changes under climate warming remain unclear. Using multiple observational datasets and projections from the latest Earth System Models (ESMs), we assess the impacts of hot droughts on runoff in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from the historical period (1961–2023) to the future period (2031–2100). An unprecedented hot drought during the 2022/2023 hydrologic year, with an estimated return period exceeding one thousand years, offers a unique opportunity to investigate the mechanism of hydrologic responses to hot droughts. Both the heat and the drought were the most severe over 1961–2023, resulting in pronounced hydrologic anomalies, including a 25% decline in runoff. However, the runoff was not the lowest over the same period, partly due to the extra water storage from the preceding wet year. The frequency of hot drought years is expected to increase by 13.6%/10.4% under the SSP2-4.5/SSP5-8.5 scenario during 2031–2100 relative to 1961–2023, despite increasing precipitation. Runoff during hot drought years is projected to decrease by 3.3%/5.2% under the SSP2-4.5/SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to that in the historical period. Although the YRB is known for its abundant water resources, our results show that the densely populated subbasins (including the Jialing River, Han River, Wu River, Dongting Lake, and Poyang Lake Basins) are projected to experience water scarcity during hot drought years when insufficient runoff is available to meet water demand. These results underscore the water security threatened by increasing hot droughts and call for improved strategies of water resources management to mitigate the climate change impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 400-410"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing climate and transition risks to China’s agriculture under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios","authors":"Tao Gan ,&nbsp;Tariq Ali ,&nbsp;Ya-Wen Liu ,&nbsp;Wei Xie ,&nbsp;Qin-Yu Deng ,&nbsp;Qiang Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s agriculture faces dual risks from climate change and the transition to low-carbon agriculture, both of which pose substantial threats to food security and farmers' incomes. Understanding the trade-offs between these risks is essential to meeting climate goals and advancing sustainable agricultural development. This study establishes a comprehensive framework that integrates meta-analysis-derived parameters into the GTAP-E model to quantify the dual risks to China’s agriculture under the 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios. The results indicate that under the 2 °C scenario, weaker mitigation efforts lead to higher climate risks, with maize production, prices, consumption, and self-sufficiency changing by about 1.5 times as much as under the 1.5 °C case. Conversely, the 1.5 °C scenario, while more effective in reducing climate risks, incurs greater transition risks—livestock output declines and prices rise nearly twice as much as that in the 2 °C scenario. The findings suggest that achieving climate targets requires a balanced transition strategy that strengthens agricultural resilience and ensures food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"17 2","pages":"Pages 411-420"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147631340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}