Quantification of selected SDGs in the context of China's climate mitigation pathway

Abstract

China has set targets for achieving peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality, supporting the global climate change mitigation targets. Meanwhile, after the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were established in 2015, China developed a national strategy for reaching them. This study aims to reveal the close relationship between energy transition, climate change mitigation and achieving SDGs. We presented the linkages between the climate change mitigation pathways and SDGs, by using the Integrated Energy and Environment Policy Assessment Model for China (IPAC). The energy transition pathways towards global net zero emissions and national carbon neutrality targets are presented as climate change mitigation pathways, with quantitative results of CO₂ emissions, energy mix and electricity demand. The pathway explores the quantitative analysis of the contributions of the climate mitigation and energy transition on achieving selected SDGs. The results show that the energy structure would change remarkably in the energy transition pathways under the climate targets, with 65% drop of fossil fuels in 2060 compared with 2020 level, and the rapid increase in renewable and nuclear powers. According to the results of the selected SDGs, under the mitigation pathway for China, it could also pave the way for sustainable development in not only energy supply side (growing of clean and low-carbon energies), but also energy demand side, including industry (optimizing material/resource utilization efficiency), building (improving proportion of population with clean energies and technologies), and transport sectors (increasing traffic turnover). Besides the global climate effects (SDG 13), local actions and measures aimed at meeting climate mitigation goals also generate domestic co-benefits, supporting progress toward SDG 3 about good health (air pollutants will drop 39%–62% cross different pollutants by 2030 compared from 2015 level), SDG 6 about clean water (water demand for some industries will drop fast due to the technologies replacement and update), SDG 7 about clean energy (proportion of population with primary reliance on clean will increase to 65.9% in 2030), SDG 8 about economic growth (materials consumption per GDP will drop 62% in 2030 from 2015 level), SDG 9 about industry (transport volumes will increase 52%–258% by 2030 compared to 2015 level), SDG 11 about sustainable cities, and SDG 12 about responsible production and consumption (recycled materials will increase about 15% in 2030 from 2015 level). The close connections between China's climate mitigation strategies and these SDGs highlight the importance of integrating policies and measures related to both climate goals and SDG targets. Such integration implicates the potential to enhance synergies and lower the overall cost of implementation.