Climate impacts on the supply–demand balance of China’s wind–solar energy system based on power grid transmission during the summer peak-load period

As China transitions towards a greener energy mix, especially using wind and solar energy, the reliability and stability of its renewable energy system, heavily reliant on grid transmission, face substantial challenges posed by climate variability. During summer peak-load periods, high temperatures exacerbate strain on electricity supply–demand dynamics. This study defines a power supply and demand gap (PSDG) index and investigates the intricate relationship between climate change and the supply‒demand balance of China’s renewable energy system, focusing specifically on the role of power grid transmission. Results show that electric power transmission can effectively mitigate climate-related risk, reducing it by an average of 5.3%. However, climate change poses a substantial threat to future energy supply‒demand balance, with meteorological variations potentially intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme operating conditions. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that supply-side and demand-side aspects account for 55% and 45% of the total PSDG index variation, respectively. We propose that energy planners in regions such as Hebei and Inner Mongolia, where climate change adversely impacts the PSDG index, should adapt their strategies to accommodate the consequences of climate change on wind–solar energy systems. This adaptation necessitates a comprehensive understanding of how varying climatic conditions affect the performance and reliability of renewable energy sources, thereby enabling the development of resilient and sustainable energy infrastructures.