Issues of Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Risk analysis of management of water systems in the Russian Federation","authors":"M. Bolgov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-6-86-98","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-6-86-98","url":null,"abstract":"The management of the water management complex is based on the analysis of a large number of processes developing in systems that are techno-natural  in nature, on the one hand, and in complex socio-economic systems affecting the whole society as a whole, on the other. The management methods implemented in practice today are based mainly on the analysis of the functioning of individual parts (individual processes) of the system, ideas about the processes under consideration are often not consistent, especially when it comes to technical and social systems. Regulatory management  methods,  including  technical  regulation,  are  considered separately. Socio-economic processes at different levels of temporal and spatial organization are investigated and predicted independently. At the same time, of course, regulatory legal knowledge is taken into account, but resource restrictions may fall out or be ignored, society is immune to instructions and recommendations lowered from above, legal nihilism takes place, the problem of qualification of decision-makers arises, etc.Certain possibilities for analyzing such situations are provided by risk theory methods. The purpose of the article is to analyze the risks arising at various stages of justifying water management measures, from design to strategies for the development of the industry as a whole. In particular, traditional methods of engineering calculations are considered, which ensure a given level of reliability of the designed water construction facilities in relation to hazardous impacts (loads), which are based on the concept of design probabilities. This approach provides a normative level of reliability, but does not guarantee the economic optimality of decisions made, is insufficient to  implement  the  social functions  of measures  and  structures,  and  is difficult to  analyze environmental problems. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the parameters of structures and measures, carried out on the basis of probabilistic approaches, should be based at least on taking into account the possible consequences of decisions taken, as well as on damage assessments expressed in the form of relevant risks.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121194323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using a Risk-Based Approach to Building an Environmental Management System in Accordance with ISO 14001:2015","authors":"S. Brykalov, V. Trifonov, K. A. Romanova","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-6-20-33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-6-20-33","url":null,"abstract":"The article proposes an original approach to the identification and risk management of the environmental management system in accordance with the requirements of the ISO 14001:2015, taking into account the specifics of the activities of industrial organizations. Algorithms for identifying and assessing environmental  aspects and related environmental  risks, as well as developing measures to reduce environmental risks and evaluating the effectiveness of these actions are presented. The proposed approaches and examples can be applied in various industries and may be of interest to researchers and specialists in the field of environmental management and risk management.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123935445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Socio-Economic Risks and Threats in the Economic Security System of the Region","authors":"O. A. Ryazanova, A. N. Timin","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-6-76-85","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-6-76-85","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with the issues of socio-economic risks and their definition through the criteria of economic security of the region. The criteria for assessing the social security of the region are highlighted; the methodology for processing primary data and their translation into a point assessment is developed and justified.The purpose of this article is to review and assess socio-economic risks and threats in the economic security system of the region on the example of the Kirov region.The objectives of the work are to review the main socio-economic risks and threats of the Kirov region, to study the methodological aspects of assessing socio-economic risks and threats in the economic security system of the region, to analyze and evaluate socio-economic indicators in the economic security system of the Kirov region.The basis of the developed system is the use of statistical data and grouping of indicators based on causal relationships between indicators. Based on the results of the study, an analysis of the economic security of the Kirov region by social groups of factors based on the presented criteria was carried out.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116228859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integral assessment and forecasting of economic regional security (on the example of the Volga Federal District)","authors":"E. Karanina, A. S. Zhigarev, F. E. Smirnov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-6-66-75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-6-66-75","url":null,"abstract":"Diagnostics and forecasting of economic security plays a special role at the macro- and mesolevels of the economy. The main task of each region is to ensure the optimal state of economic security, for this it is necessary to predict threats accurately, analyze risks in the context of economic sectors and give appropriate estimates of indicators. The study applied a method for assessing the economic security of the regional level using an integral assessment, for this the following procedures were sequentially carried out: the search for statistical data, the formation of weight coefficients using expert assessments, determining the structure of the model and finding an integral indicator in the context of projections and regions: real economy, financial sphere, social sphere, assessment of the general integral indicator of economic security of the regions of the Volga Federal District.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"204 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133828944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Facet-Hierarchical Approach to the Classification of Climate Risks in the Context of the Economic Activity of the Enterprise","authors":"P. N. Mikheev","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-6-34-49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-6-34-49","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents a facet-hierarchical approach to the classification of climate risks in the context of the economic activity of an enterprise. The relevance of climate issues is due to the unprecedented  pace of global warming in previous decades and the increased climate impact on  the  economy, not  only at  the  macroeconomic  level, but  also at  the  level of individual organizations. An important task for the enterprise is to create such a risk classification system that will allow not only to identify and aggregate information about the risks associated with climate change in the context of economic activity, but also to ensure a rapid operative response to existing and emerging hazards. The purpose of this work is to study the possibilities of using the facet-hierarchical method of climate risk classification in application to risk management in the context of the economic activity of an enterprise. The structure of the classifier is built on the basis of the principle of integration of the enterprise activity, presented in the form of four main subsystems: object, process, design and environment. An important addition to the facet approach is the hierarchical structure of each facet. The hierarchy of subordinate features is built within each facet and allows taking into account, on the one hand, the multilateral nature of the climate impact, on the other hand, the complexity of the economic structure of the enterprise. The proposed method can be modified depending on specific practical tasks and integrated into the overall risk management system of the organization. The information obtained based on logically proven accounting, classification and risk assessment can contribute to the adoption of effective management decisions and increase the value of the company.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"5 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114046314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distributed Assessment of the Risk of Exceeding the Project Deadlines and Recommendations for Improving its Sustainability","authors":"S. Oparin, I. K. Pushkarsky","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-5-48-57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-5-48-57","url":null,"abstract":"   The article discusses the problem of exceeding the planned deadlines for the implementation of investment projects and ensuring their sustainability at the stage of project preparation using digital risk management technologies. The risk of exceeding the project deadlines is considered as a consequence of the influence of uncertainty of the initial data, the duration of the project implementation and its individual stages, the resources used, conditions, assumptions and restrictions on the project objectives associated with its implementation within the deadlines established by the project schedule. Risk factors were identifi ed and a digital method of distributed assessment of the risk of exceeding the project deadlines was considered, including its soft ware implementation in the Microsoft Project environment. On the example of a real project for the reconstruction of a unique object — the Felix Chopin Mansion in St. Petersburg, a computational experiment was carried out and new possibilities for building a risk profile and digital visualization of managing the risk of exceeding the project deadlines are shown.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124181567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Need to Account for Uncertainty in Quantifi cation Technogenic Risk","authors":"E. Kolesnikov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-5-80-89","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-5-80-89","url":null,"abstract":"   Quantitative assessment of technogenic risk is traditionally carried out in point setting. Meanwhile, in the experimental part of the natural and technical sciences, it has long been customary to take into account the presence of uncertainty and quantify it. It is time to take into account the presence of uncertainty and quantify it in mathematical modeling, in particular, when performing a quantitative assessment of technogenic risk. Th e article contains a draft regulation on the analysis and quantitative assessment of the uncertainty of the estimated indicators of technogenic risk.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"107 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123373146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk, Probability and Cognition","authors":"V. Artiukhin","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-5-90-97","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-5-90-97","url":null,"abstract":"   This article discusses defi nitions and the modern concept of risk. The author demonstrates the normative, technical and cognitive problems associated with the calculated values of possible damage and the probability of a negative event, and also suggests looking at the defi nition of risk in isolation from the concept of probability.   The aim of the work is to draw attention to the cognitive aspects of risk and probability.   This is important, since, according to the author, the peculiarities of human perception can signifi cantly distort information, both collected and processed during the risk analysis procedure. As arguments in favor of the author’s position, the results of many years of research by world-famous scientists are presented.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122384496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative Analysis of the Risk of Nature Management in Countries of European and African Unions","authors":"S. Kuzmin, D. S. Uvarova","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-5-58-79","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-5-58-79","url":null,"abstract":"   The partnership between the EU and the AU in the fi eld of protection against natural disasters leads to the rapprochement of Africa and Europe, strengthening economic cooperation, sustainable development, when both continents coexist in peace, security, democracy, prosperity, solidarity and human dignity. A comparative analysis of the risk of nature management in the EU and AU countries has shown that countries with a high level of economic development do not have a clear advantage. Moreover, the AU countries oft en look more favorable. The overall picture for the EU and the AU, both in terms of absolute indicators and in terms of the percentage ratio of natural hazards, protection from natural disasters and risk of nature management, is also not in favor of the European Union. The leadership of the EU, the European Commission and its specialized disaster management units often overestimate their economic capabilities. Dangerous natural processes catch the highly developed states of Europe unawares and cause significant damage also because of the very high level of development of the EU territory. In the AU, firstly, a significant part of the territory is pristine natural landscapes, oft en completely unpopulated, secondly, in many countries the adaptation mechanisms of the local population to natural disasters are widely developed, and thirdly, the AU countries practically do not spend their own resources to combat natural disasters, and provide this process at the expense of external fi nancial and humanitarian aid from donors — the UN, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, various public organizations and, actually, from the EU. Nevertheless, the eff ective functioning of the entire disaster management system requires a strong economy in the EU and the AU as a whole, as well as in individual countries. Its basic subsystems should be: 1) market management — leadership at the level of company management, mentoring, creation of institutional conditions for development of innovative entrepreneurship, consulting and teaching entrepreneurs new methods of managing and running business; 2) financing — private investments, business projects, access to credit; 3) national-cultural and cross-cultural processes — entrepreneurial culture, formation of new progressive ideas on the principles of sustainable development, tolerance of entrepreneurial risk, self-employment, encouragement of success in innovation, establishment of business innovation summits; 4) regulation and promotion — regulatory framework, ease of starting and doing business, access to information and consulting infrastructure, new information and communication technologies, transport accessibility; 5) development and growth of human capital — universities and research centers as catalysts of innovation, promotion of employment and interaction with employers for employment of university graduates in innovative companies, talent management, availability of outsourcing; 6) new areas of ","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"83 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114003167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Union Datasets for Information Support in the Risk Management of Forest Fires","authors":"S. A. Gilek, V. Nicheporchuk","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-5-28-39","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-5-28-39","url":null,"abstract":"   In this paper the sources of forest fi re monitoring data are analyzed. It is required to form a union interdepartmental information space and use intelligent data processing tools to support management. Th e proposed method for linking sets of heterogeneous data in the process of forming management decisions is discussed. An algorithm for applying diff erent data to manage fire safety in rural areas of Siberia is given.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"207 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133060200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}