Issues of Risk Analysis最新文献

Assessment of Environmental Risk from Radioactive Pollution of the Environment 环境放射性污染的环境风险评价

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-10-26

I. Kryshev, N. Pavlova, T. Sazykina, A. Kryshev, I. V. Kosykh, A. Buryakova, N. A. Rosnovskaya

{"title":"Assessment of Environmental Risk from Radioactive Pollution of the Environment","authors":"I. Kryshev, N. Pavlova, T. Sazykina, A. Kryshev, I. V. Kosykh, A. Buryakova, N. A. Rosnovskaya","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-10-26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-10-26","url":null,"abstract":"T e article presents a methodology for assessing the risk of radioactive contamination of the environment according to the data of radiation monitoring. T e methodology is based on the indicators of radiation exposure and control levels of radionuclides in environmental components, the non-exceeding of which ensures the safety of natural environment. T e risk assessment methodology uses three indicators: an environmental risk index, based on radiation dose rates to reference biota; an integral indicator of pollution of the territory; a generalized risk indicator, estimated in scores, considering both the area and time dynamics of pollution. Examples of methodology application are given, presenting risk assessment for Chernobyl contaminated territories, also risk assessment for radiation hazardous facilities. T e proposed risk assessment procedure can be used to analyzing and interpreting information about radiation risks on the territory of the Russian Federation based on radiation monitoring data, taking into account the requirements of environmental protection, assessment of the state and changes in the radiation situation under the inf uence of natural and anthropogenic factors, including radiation facilities. T e methodology produces reliable integral information about radiation impact on the environment and its interpretation based on the concept of environmental risk. T e results of the risk assessment from radioactive pollution of the environment are used in the development and decision-making on the need for environmental protection measures, and also make it possible to rank the factors of radiation exposure and rationally organize monitoring of the radiation situation.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123959706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Life Cycle Analyses of Fertilizers: Carbon Emissions as a Measure of Energy Effi ciency 肥料的生命周期分析:碳排放作为能源效率的衡量标准

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-28-49

V. Bashkin, A. Alekseev

{"title":"Life Cycle Analyses of Fertilizers: Carbon Emissions as a Measure of Energy Effi ciency","authors":"V. Bashkin, A. Alekseev","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-28-49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-28-49","url":null,"abstract":"Using the analysis of the life cycle of fertilizers, it is shown that the values of greenhouse gas emissions can be considered as an indicator of energy ef iiency. Taking into account the huge array of data accumulated in recent years on greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO2 and methane), it is possible to consider the problem of energy ef iiency (carbon dioxide emissions occur during fuel combustion, f rst of all, as well methane and CO 2 as precursors for N fertilizer) in the chain from fertilizer production to their logistics, application, production and waste disposal. Relevant examples are given in the text of the article. It is shown, that an increase in energy ef iiency in the considered life cycle of fertilizers, from production to utilization of agricultural waste, can signif cantly reduce the role of agricultural production in undesirable GHG emissions. It should be emphasized that reducing the potential of GHG emissions in the production of fertilizers depends on the source of energy used and the transfer of power plants from coal to gas, and especially RES, will be the most signif cant. When growing products, factors related to the use of modern farming systems based on accurate fertilization, the use of electronic soil maps, precision farming and increasing the ef iiency of fertilizer use, in particular, nitrogen and phosphorus, play a very important role.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130808823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mathematical and Statistical Model for Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 Waves on the Regional System (on the Example of the Kirov Region) 评估新冠肺炎疫情对区域系统影响的数理统计模型(以基洛夫地区为例)

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-60-71

L. V. Karaulova, V. Karaulov, A. V. Vishnyakov

{"title":"Mathematical and Statistical Model for Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 Waves on the Regional System (on the Example of the Kirov Region)","authors":"L. V. Karaulova, V. Karaulov, A. V. Vishnyakov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-60-71","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-3-60-71","url":null,"abstract":"Since the f rst outbreak in China and the spread of COVID-19 in dif erent countries of the world, the study of mathematical models of the spread of the epidemic has begun and is intensively continuing. Such models are dynamic and of en based on dif erential or dif erence equations. As a rule, these models require an identif cation procedure to determine unknown parameters. But for a number of reasons, unambiguous identif cation of such parameters cannot be performed. For example, the preparation of statistical data for the identif cation procedure may be performed in various ways. T erefore, the preferred method of data preprocessing is to approximate them with the most appropriate functional dependence.T e study shows that epidemic curves may be represented by a superposition of several local waves — an outbreak of an epidemic in a particular region consists of many local waves and some of them may merge into one common wave. In this article, it is proposed to use analogs of the normal distribution density function to predict waves of new COVID-19 cases. T e purpose of the article was to develop a model of the dynamics of the total number of cases and new cases of COVID-19, taking into account the waves of the epidemic and the impact on the regional socioeconomic system.T e study was conducted on the basis of data on the incidence of COVID-19 in the Kirov region4 in 2020—2022. It is shown that the chosen model describes statistical data well and allows making realistic forecasts for the total number of diseases and new cases of diseases. T e results of the study may be used to develop preventive measures to prevent the spread of the disease and allow assessing the impact of the epidemiological situation on the socio-economic system of the region.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129349704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Methodical Aspects of Risk Analysis of Target Underachievement in Forming the Mid-Term Forecasts of Development of Structurally Complex Systems 结构复杂系统发展中期预测中目标未完成风险分析的方法方面

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-42-66

A. Bochkov, V. Safonov

{"title":"Methodical Aspects of Risk Analysis of Target Underachievement in Forming the Mid-Term Forecasts of Development of Structurally Complex Systems","authors":"A. Bochkov, V. Safonov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-42-66","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-42-66","url":null,"abstract":"Traditional models of forecasting market and economic behaviour (belonging to the class of purposeful structural-complex systems) are based in most cases on the analysis of the existing and retrospective balance of resource extraction by world exporters and resource consumption by importers, considering the development forecasts of their industrial production and power engineering. The availability of long-term back data makes it possible to use production functions or multi-factor regression models to make short-term forecasts. As uncertainty increases with the length of the forecast horizon, the accuracy of the forecasts decreases. The corridor of acceptable values in the forecasting model is therefore determined by the degree of variability of the backward time series used to build the model. The latter in turn depends on the growth (decline) of demand/consumption in the past. For modelling, the maximum discrepancies in the data are often smoothed out, which leads to a situation where the model makes a forecast on the basis of a time series that differs from the initial one, and therefore it is unable to predict the approaching crisis. The approach proposed by the authors is based on the actual (or declared) value of the maximum and minimum variability of the forecast indicators, which defines a forecast corridor in each time interval set for reaching the target state of the indicators. Thus, it is not a point value that is assessed, but its achievability within the corridor of admissible values and the existing quality of the developing system.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121717257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Social and Economic Security 社会和经济保障

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-8-9

E. Karanina

引用次数: 0

Analysis and Assessment of the State of Economic Security of the Sughd Region 江苏地区经济安全状况分析与评价

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-26-40

T. Tokhirov

{"title":"Analysis and Assessment of the State of Economic Security of the Sughd Region","authors":"T. Tokhirov","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-26-40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-26-40","url":null,"abstract":"The article proposed a method for assessing the level of economic security of the region, which relies on the study of the value of basic indicators, with the calculation of integral indicators. The development of methodological provisions for assessing the economic security of the region is relevant from the point of view of the need to make effective management decisions for the timely detection and elimination of possible dangers and threats, and to reduce the risks of economic security in the country and its regions.In recent years, economic security has undergone a number of major changes. Economic warfare and sovereignty have infiltrated strategic thinking and political discourse, along with free trade and attractiveness, which have so far been the main economic policies of most countries. The unprecedented polarization of global geopolitical relations and the increased stakes in technological superiority around new generations of telecommunications networks and data processing have been the catalyst for this paradigm shift . In this new situation, the strengths of the regional economy are also assets that can be used by large competing forces, oft en better equipped for this purpose.Bringing the basic indicators of the economic security of a particular region into a comparable form by normalizing them relative to the average values for all territories of the country. A rationing of basic indicators for assessing the state of economic security of the region is proposed. Economic security was assessed by calculating the integral coefficient, using the method of multivariate comparative analysis. To assess the economic security of the region, a group of indicators of macroeconomic development, social development, financial security, environmental security, personnel security was used, allowing to get an idea of economic security in general. It is proposed for each safety indicator to determine the best (reference) value, which is taken as a unit, then the indicators are compared for each safety component with the standard.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124583685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of International Sanctions on the Socio-Economic Security of Regions 国际制裁对区域社会经济安全的影响

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-10-25

E. Karanina, E. Selezneva

{"title":"Impact of International Sanctions on the Socio-Economic Security of Regions","authors":"E. Karanina, E. Selezneva","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-10-25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-10-25","url":null,"abstract":"Since 2014, the problem of sanctions and counter-sanctions has not left the front pages of popular and scientific publications and most information resources. A large number of works by domestic and foreign authors, consulting agencies gave both positive and negative forecasts of the impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the country’s economy as a whole. Over the course of 8 years, various types of sanctions were introduced that dealt an economic blow to both individuals and sectors of the economy and specific corporations that are represented in different regions of the country, which undoubtedly carries risks for the socio-economic security of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The subjects of the Russian Federation have a different structure of the economy and the level of socio-economic development, while the impact of sanctions on the level of socio-economic security of individual regions and the possibilities of leveling them have not yet been sufficiently investigated, which gives this topic high relevance. The purpose of the study is to assess the nature of the sanctions and their impact on the socio-economic security of the regions. The work uses bibliographic, analytical, statistical and mathematical research methods, analyzes open statistical data in the context of the regions of the Volga Federal District (VFD). As a result of the study, an analysis of the degree of influence of sanctions pressure on the indicators of foreign trade operations, the availability of technologies, the level of overdue loans, and the financial results of companies’ activities was presented. As a result of the study, factors were identified that have a greater impact on the state of the regional economy, indicators, indicators and directions for reducing the impact of sanctions on the socio-economic security of the Volga Federal District regions.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130810110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Management of Natural and Environmental Risks in the Context of Increasing Continentality of the Climate 气候大陆性增强背景下的自然和环境风险管理

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-04-05 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-68-85

V. Bashkin, I. Priputina, R. A. Galiulina

引用次数: 0

Use of Risk Analysis Tools in Investment Construction Project Cost Management 风险分析工具在投资建设项目成本管理中的应用

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-04-05 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-86-94

T. Shemyakina, A. S. Smotrova

{"title":"Use of Risk Analysis Tools in Investment Construction Project Cost Management","authors":"T. Shemyakina, A. S. Smotrova","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-86-94","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-2-86-94","url":null,"abstract":"The paper examines the possibilities of improving the accuracy of estimating the value of an investment and construction project based on various analysis and evaluation tools. Accurate estimates can be achieved using the Project Value Model at all stages of the project lifecycle. The stages of estimating the cost of an investment and construction project are considered, including costing, i.e. determining the costs of individual works depending on the calculation of the volume of work and pricing — determining the total cost of the project taking into account cost, profit and contingency provisions. The work carried out a comparative analysis of the methods of estimating the cost of the project: methods of high-level assessment, analog and method of parametric estimates, detailed assessment of the project costs, the use of which should be carried out iteratively. It is noted that risk management tools should be considered in combination with the project cost assessment due to the dependence of the goal in identifying and assessing risks with maximum performance and lowest cost. The article studied various approaches to assessment, in particular: estimating the cost of the project at the pre-investment stage in the form of a rough (approximate) value; estimate the project cost at the business planning stage as the estimated value of the cost justification Project Cost Estimation in the Process of Costing by Activity Type — Budget Cost Assessment Estimate the final planned project cost to be included in the project budget — accurately estimate the project cost. The article proposes the use of various tools and methods of risk analysis at the stages of the life cycle of an investment and construction project.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124940161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Review on the recommendations of Roshydromet R 52.18.923-2022 “Procedure for assessing the risk from radioactive environmental pollution from radiation monitoring data” 对rohydromet R 52.18.923-2022《基于辐射监测数据的放射性环境污染风险评估程序》建议的审查

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-1-88-90

B. I. Sonzynys, G. V. Lavrentieva

引用次数: 0