Issues of Risk Analysis最新文献_第10页

Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Devaluation: Risks of the Russian Ruble and Other Currencies 石油价格在汇率贬值中的作用:俄罗斯卢布和其他货币的风险

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2019-08-31 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-76-81

V. Didenko, N. Morozko

{"title":"Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Devaluation: Risks of the Russian Ruble and Other Currencies","authors":"V. Didenko, N. Morozko","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-76-81","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-76-81","url":null,"abstract":"Subject and topic. Currently, the decrease in payments on foreign debts and a decrease in imports have an impact on the demand in the foreign exchange market. As a result, a situation has arisen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, caused by threats of sanctions that provoked the absence of excessive demand and adequate supply in the foreign exchange market and led to a decrease in ruble exchange rate fl uctuations due to oil price movements.The subject of research is to determine the role of oil prices in the formation of monetary policy, which can be a key driver of economic growth.Objective. Identifi cation of exchange rate management practices with the search for the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the volatility of the national currency exchange rate.Research methods, the main provisions. Methods used grouping, comparing and summarizing economic indicators to study the characteristics and trends of the monetary policy of China, South Korea and Latin American countries.A critical analysis of the various points of view of leading scientists on the negative or positive impact of the exchange rate on the development of the economy was carried out. At the same time, it is interesting to analyze the views of individual economists that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has recently largely decreased.The main results of the study. Determination of the theoretical relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate, based on the shock component, either in oil prices or in the exchange rate, with testing the response of the economic variable to this shock.Main conclusions. It was concluded that in the conditions of the economic situation of the last decade, the main problem of export-oriented and import-oriented countries is the imbalance of the current account of the balance of payments, as well as its relationship, primarily with the prices of export goods.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127960276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comprehensive analysis of territorial risk factors for estimating and managing the natural and technogenic safety 国土风险因素综合分析，用于自然安全与技术安全评价与管理

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2019-08-31 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-64-74

V. Nicheporchuk, T. G. Penkova

引用次数: 3

Risks of northern delivery 北方交货险

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2019-08-30 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-32-47

Y. Sokolov

引用次数: 4

Geoenvirоnmental risks on the background geopolitical challenges for the oil and gas industry in the Arctic 北极油气行业地缘政治挑战背景下的地质环境风险

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2019-08-30 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-12-23

O. Trubitsina, V. Bashkin

{"title":"Geoenvirоnmental risks on the background geopolitical challenges for the oil and gas industry in the Arctic","authors":"O. Trubitsina, V. Bashkin","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-12-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-12-23","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the issues of geoecology and geopolitics in the Arctic. The authors reveal the need to consider geopolitical challenges in the analysis of geoecological risks (GER) of oil and gas development of the Arctic region. This is due to the intersection here of the strategic interests of several States and their focus to prove the inability of Russia to ensure environmental safety in the development of Arctic fi elds. Th e subject of GER is used as a geopolitical tool against Russia due to the probability of it becoming a key player in the region. The authors propose a model for the analysis of GER, which is based on critical loads (CL) of acidity of pollutants and includes 2 stages: 1) the stage of quantitative assessment of GER, which allows to calculate not only the magnitude of the projected changes in the state of the Arctic ecosystems, but also the probability of their occurrence; 2) the stage of management of GER taking into account geopolitical factors, assuming a qualitative expert assessment, which is a procedure for making a management decision to achieve acceptable levels of the total GER.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123921087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Evaluation of regional level of catastrophic entrepreneurial risk 区域灾难性创业风险水平评价

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2019-06-28 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-3-52-61

Yu. S. Pinkovetskaia

{"title":"Evaluation of regional level of catastrophic entrepreneurial risk","authors":"Yu. S. Pinkovetskaia","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-3-52-61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-3-52-61","url":null,"abstract":"Defined in the Strategy development of small and medium enterprises until 2030 the significant increase in their number and volume of products should be based on the account of risk phenomena. Defining this it is important to analyze the regulations and trends that characterize the existing levels of catastrophic business risk. The paper discusses methodological and empirical aspects of the assessment of catastrophic risk, as well as the calculation formula for determining its level. Official statistics on the number of liquidated enterprises for the period from 2010 to 2017 were used as information. Functions density of normal distribution describing the developed values of catastrophic risks on sets of the enterprises located in all regions of Russia are given. The results of studies have shown that the level of entrepreneurial risk is influenced by crisis phenomena in the economy, as well as the presence of differentiation levels of catastrophic risk on a territorial basis. Lists of regions of the country with the maximum and minimum values of the existing entrepreneurial risks are given. The results of the research can be used by entrepreneurs, employees of banks and other credit institutions, as well as departments of federal, regional and municipal governments related to the regulation of entrepreneurial activity.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123945845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

About creation of risk management systems at the enterprises 关于企业风险管理体系的建立

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2019-06-28 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-3-8-9

A. Bykov

引用次数: 5

New prognostic indicator of adverse and dangerous weather phenomena — gradient of the integral helicity of the atmospheric motion velocity field 不利和危险天气现象的新预报指标——大气运动速度场积分螺旋度梯度

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2019-04-28 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-2-50-57

А. А. Макоско, Л. О. Максименков

引用次数: 0

Ecological rating as an indicator of geoenvironmental risk management of Russian oil and gas companies in the Arctic 生态评级作为俄罗斯北极油气公司地质环境风险管理的指标

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2019-04-28 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-2-58-69

O. Trubitsina, V. Bashkin

{"title":"Ecological rating as an indicator of geoenvironmental risk management of Russian oil and gas companies in the Arctic","authors":"O. Trubitsina, V. Bashkin","doi":"10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-2-58-69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-2-58-69","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the issues of environmental ratings as an indicators of the process of geoenvironmental risk (GER) management of Russian oil and gas companies, operating in theArctic. The authors demonstrate the algorithm of GER management model processes and reveal the need to use environmental ratings for the oil and gas industry. Particular attention is given to the issues of rating results of Environmental Responsibility of Oil and Gas companies in Russia that was held in 2014—2017 years. It was conducted by the cooperative initiative by CREON Group and WWF Russia with participation of National Rating Agency. The authors have selected from all Russian oil and gas companies only those who operating in the Arctic region and they have analyzed them. The rating's results show that the leaders are companies whose management pays special attention to gas. They are Sakhalin Energy (Sakhalin-2), Gazprom and Zarubezhneft. The authors point out that the environmental rating of Russian oil and gas companies can serve as an indicator of GER management, as a tool to inform foreign investors about the environmental impact to ensure the ecological safety of the region.","PeriodicalId":391677,"journal":{"name":"Issues of Risk Analysis","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117138938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Risk of soil contamination by heavy metals through gas-dust emissions 通过气体粉尘排放的重金属污染土壤的风险

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-42-49

V. Bashkin, R. Galiulin, R. A. Galiulina, A. Arabsky

引用次数: 1

Scientific and practical journal "Issues of risk analysis" celebrates 15 years 科学实用杂志《风险分析问题》庆祝成立15周年

Issues of Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2019-02-27 DOI: 10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-6-9

A. Bykov

引用次数: 0