Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Devaluation: Risks of the Russian Ruble and Other Currencies

Abstract

Subject and topic. Currently, the decrease in payments on foreign debts and a decrease in imports have an impact on the demand in the foreign exchange market. As a result, a situation has arisen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, caused by threats of sanctions that provoked the absence of excessive demand and adequate supply in the foreign exchange market and led to a decrease in ruble exchange rate fl uctuations due to oil price movements.The subject of research is to determine the role of oil prices in the formation of monetary policy, which can be a key driver of economic growth.Objective. Identifi cation of exchange rate management practices with the search for the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the volatility of the national currency exchange rate.Research methods, the main provisions. Methods used grouping, comparing and summarizing economic indicators to study the characteristics and trends of the monetary policy of China, South Korea and Latin American countries.A critical analysis of the various points of view of leading scientists on the negative or positive impact of the exchange rate on the development of the economy was carried out. At the same time, it is interesting to analyze the views of individual economists that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has recently largely decreased.The main results of the study. Determination of the theoretical relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate, based on the shock component, either in oil prices or in the exchange rate, with testing the response of the economic variable to this shock.Main conclusions. It was concluded that in the conditions of the economic situation of the last decade, the main problem of export-oriented and import-oriented countries is the imbalance of the current account of the balance of payments, as well as its relationship, primarily with the prices of export goods.