不利和危险天气现象的新预报指标——大气运动速度场积分螺旋度梯度

А. А. Макоско, Л. О. Максименков
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引用次数: 0

摘要

揭示了积分螺旋的一些新性质,特别是其场结构的偶极子结构。考虑到这种情况,评估积分螺旋度的一个更有信息和说明性的标准是积分螺旋度的梯度,它在分析和预测不利和危险的天气现象方面很有希望。以2017年5月29日莫斯科的对流风暴为例。具有预测质量和清晰度的指标,用作危险天气现象的诊断指标。考虑到这种对流风暴的预报只需几小时,甚至几十分钟,因此,确保预报提前期约为12小时的拟议标准可以成为预测危险天气现象的技术路线的重要环节,并成为减少气象原因造成的经济损失的重要储备。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
New prognostic indicator of adverse and dangerous weather phenomena — gradient of the integral helicity of the atmospheric motion velocity field
Some new properties of integral helicity are revealed, in particular, the dipole structure of the structure of its field. Taking this circumstance into account, a more informative and illustrative criterion for evaluating integral helicity is a gradient of integral helicity that is promising in analyzing and forecasting adverse and dangerous weather phenomena.Using the example of a convective storm inMoscow05.29.2017. Indicators of predictive quality and clarity, used as diagnostic indicators and dangerous weather phenomena. Considering that such a convective storm is predicted in just a couple of hours, or even several tens of minutes, the proposed criterion, which ensures the forecast lead time of about 12 hours, can become an important link in the technological line for predicting dangerous weather phenomena and a significant reserve for reducing economic damage due to meteorological reasons.
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