npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第7页

More positive and less variable North Atlantic Oscillation at high CO2 forcing 在高CO2强迫下，北大西洋涛动正性更强，变化更少

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01051-7

Ivan Mitevski, Simon H. Lee, Gabriel Vecchi, Clara Orbe, Lorenzo M. Polvani

{"title":"More positive and less variable North Atlantic Oscillation at high CO2 forcing","authors":"Ivan Mitevski, Simon H. Lee, Gabriel Vecchi, Clara Orbe, Lorenzo M. Polvani","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01051-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01051-7","url":null,"abstract":"The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the principal mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic, modulating the weather and climate of neighboring regions in both winter and summer. While Earth System Models generally project a more positive NAO under 21st century high-emission scenarios, uncertainties persist as to the precise response of the NAO to increased CO2 levels, owing to large internal variability. In this study we investigate the response of the NAO to a wide range of CO2 forcings, from two to eight times the preindustrial values. Analyzing a large sample of present-generation climate models, we find that the NAO likely becomes more positive with increasing CO2 concentrations. Moreover, we find a reduction in NAO variability. This leads to a smaller increase in the likelihood of extremely positive NAO events than would be expected based solely on the shift in the mean. On the other hand, we also find a reduction in extremely negative NAO events, which is attributable to both the shift toward more positive values and the decrease in variance. Finally, our analysis reveals that the distribution of the NAO response at high CO2 forcing is negatively skewed. This fact partially offsets the decrease in extremely positive NAO events associated with reduced variability. Ultimately, our results suggest a greater increase in positive NAO events compared to the decrease in extremely negative NAO events at higher CO2 forcing.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"116 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143915464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Seasonal forecasting of Pan-Arctic sea ice with state space model 基于状态空间模型的泛北极海冰季节预报

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01058-0

Wei Wang, Weidong Yang, Lei Wang, Guihua Wang, Ruibo Lei

{"title":"Seasonal forecasting of Pan-Arctic sea ice with state space model","authors":"Wei Wang, Weidong Yang, Lei Wang, Guihua Wang, Ruibo Lei","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01058-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01058-0","url":null,"abstract":"The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice resulting from anthropogenic climate change poses significant risks to indigenous communities, ecosystems, and the global climate system. This situation emphasizes the immediate necessity for precise seasonal sea ice forecasts. While dynamical models perform well for short-term forecasts, they encounter limitations in long-term forecasts and are computationally intensive. Deep learning models, while more computationally efficient, often have difficulty managing seasonal variations and uncertainties when dealing with complex sea ice dynamics. In this research, we introduce IceMamba, a deep learning architecture that integrates sophisticated attention mechanisms within the state space model. Through comparative analysis of 25 renowned forecast models, including dynamical, statistical, and deep learning approaches, our experimental results indicate that IceMamba delivers excellent seasonal forecasting capabilities for Pan-Arctic sea ice concentration. Specifically, IceMamba outperforms all tested models regarding average RMSE and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and ranks second in Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE). This innovative approach enhances our ability to foresee and alleviate the effects of sea ice variability, offering essential insights for strategies aimed at climate adaptation.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"156 Suppl 1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143920545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Storylines reveal contrasting thermodynamic effects of climate change on 2020/21 East Asian cold extremes 故事情节揭示了气候变化对2020/21东亚极端寒冷的不同热力学影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01031-x

Wenqin Zhuo, Antonio Sánchez-Benítez, Marylou Athanase, Thomas Jung, Yao Yao, Helge F. Goessling

{"title":"Storylines reveal contrasting thermodynamic effects of climate change on 2020/21 East Asian cold extremes","authors":"Wenqin Zhuo, Antonio Sánchez-Benítez, Marylou Athanase, Thomas Jung, Yao Yao, Helge F. Goessling","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01031-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01031-x","url":null,"abstract":"The changing character of mid-latitude cold air outbreaks in a warming climate remains unclear, primarily due to uncertainty associated with changing atmospheric dynamics. Here, we employ an event-based storyline approach in which the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is nudged to reanalysis data at different global warming levels based on historical and medium-to-high-emission scenario simulations. We thereby quantify the thermodynamic climate-change effects of pre-industrial, 2 °C and 4 °C warmer climates compared to present-day climate for three cold surges in East Asia during winter 2020/21. The strongest warming occurs over northeast Asia, reaching up to +12 °C in a + 4 °C warmer climate and caused by the advection of less cold air from winter ice-free regions in the Arctic, where surface air temperature increases by over +20 °C. In contrast, over southern China, a moderate cooling is found from pre-industrial to present-day climates, due to the observed increase in aerosol concentration, peaking by the mid-21st century and altering radiative balances. This cooling effect is likely to persist well into a + 2 °C-warmer climate; however, it may become undetectable at the end of the 21st century (+4 °C warming). Our findings underscore the important thermodynamic impact associated with Arctic amplification and cooling effect of aerosol-induced changes in the radiation budget under a high aerosol emission scenario on East Asian cold extremes.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143915467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Smoke aerosols elevate precipitation top and latent heat to the upper atmosphere globally 烟雾气溶胶在全球范围内将降水顶和潜热提升到高层大气

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01047-3

Hongxia Zhu, Hongwei Zhao, Shuping Yang, Renjun Zhou, Yu Wang, Yufei Zou, Chun Zhao, Rui Li

{"title":"Smoke aerosols elevate precipitation top and latent heat to the upper atmosphere globally","authors":"Hongxia Zhu, Hongwei Zhao, Shuping Yang, Renjun Zhou, Yu Wang, Yufei Zou, Chun Zhao, Rui Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01047-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01047-3","url":null,"abstract":"Investigations across five fire-impacted regions worldwide show that smoke consistently increases precipitation rates at elevations above the 0 °C isotherm. This enhancement persists despite regional differences in atmospheric circulation fields associated with precipitation events. Upon limiting dynamic variations, the enhancement of upper-level precipitation rates by smoke aerosols remained evident. Generally, wildfire emissions were estimated to augment the global mean annual Aerosol Optical Depth by 0.0358, with a variation of 0.56%, and to lower the mean annual global precipitation top temperature by 0.32 °C, with a variation of 3%. It suggests that on the global stage, smoke aerosol acts as an effective cloud condensation and ice nucleating agent, diminishing cloud particle sizes at the lower layer, facilitating the formation of ice-phase hydrometeors, and triggering augmented latent heat release at the upper layer, which delay the rain formation from low to high altitude, and enhance the upper-level rain intensity and elevate precipitation tops.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143915465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Disparity in spatiotemporal variability and risk of compound coastal extremes between India’s East-West coasts 印度东西海岸的时空变异性差异和复合海岸极端事件风险

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01045-5

Diljit Dutta, V. V. Srinivas, Govindasamy Bala

引用次数: 0

On the drivers of ice nucleating particle diurnal variability in Eastern Mediterranean clouds 东地中海云中冰成核粒子日变率的驱动因素

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00817-9

Kunfeng Gao, Franziska Vogel, Romanos Foskinis, Stergios Vratolis, Maria I. Gini, Konstantinos Granakis, Olga Zografou, Prodromos Fetfatzis, Alexandros Papayannis, Ottmar Möhler, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Athanasios Nenes

{"title":"On the drivers of ice nucleating particle diurnal variability in Eastern Mediterranean clouds","authors":"Kunfeng Gao, Franziska Vogel, Romanos Foskinis, Stergios Vratolis, Maria I. Gini, Konstantinos Granakis, Olga Zografou, Prodromos Fetfatzis, Alexandros Papayannis, Ottmar Möhler, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Athanasios Nenes","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00817-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00817-9","url":null,"abstract":"We report the drivers of spatiotemporal variability of ice nucleating particles (INPs) for mixed-phase orographic clouds (~−25 °C) in the Eastern Mediterranean. In the planetary boundary layer, pronounced INP diurnal periodicity is observed, which is mainly driven by biological (and to a lesser extent, dust) particles but not aerosols from biomass burning. The comparison of size-resolved and fluorescence-discriminated aerosol particle properties with INPs reveals the primary role of fluorescent bioaerosol. The presence of Saharan dust increases INPs during nighttime more than daytime, because of lower boundary layer height during nighttime which decreases the contribution of aerosols (including bioaerosols) from the boundary layer. INP diurnal periodicity is absent in the free troposphere, although levels are driven by the availability of bioaerosol and dust particles. Given the effective ice nucleation ability of bioaerosols and subsequent effects from ice multiplication at warm temperatures, the lack of such cycles in models points to important and overlooked drivers of cloud formation and precipitation in mountainous regions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143910660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Attributing climate and weather extremes to Northern Hemisphere sea ice and terrestrial snow: progress, challenges and ways forward 将极端气候和天气归因于北半球海冰和陆雪：进展、挑战和前进方向

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01012-0

Kunhui Ye, Judah Cohen, Hans W. Chen, Shiyue Zhang, Dehai Luo, Mostafa Essam Hamouda

{"title":"Attributing climate and weather extremes to Northern Hemisphere sea ice and terrestrial snow: progress, challenges and ways forward","authors":"Kunhui Ye, Judah Cohen, Hans W. Chen, Shiyue Zhang, Dehai Luo, Mostafa Essam Hamouda","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01012-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01012-0","url":null,"abstract":"Sea ice and snow are crucial components of the cryosphere and the climate system. Both sea ice and spring snow in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) have been decreasing at an alarming rate in a changing climate. Changes in NH sea ice and snow have been linked with a variety of climate and weather extremes including cold spells, heatwaves, droughts and wildfires. Understanding of these linkages will benefit the predictions of climate and weather extremes. However, existing work on this has been largely fragmented and is subject to large uncertainties in physical pathways and methodologies. This has prevented further substantial progress in attributing climate and weather extremes to sea ice and snow change, and will potentially risk the loss of a critical window for effective climate change mitigation. In this review, we synthesize the current progress in attributing climate and weather extremes to sea ice and snow change by evaluating the observed linkages, their physical pathways and uncertainties in these pathways, and suggesting ways forward for future research efforts. By adopting the same framework for both sea ice and snow, we highlight their combined influence and the cryospheric feedback to the climate system. We suggest that future research will benefit from improving observational networks, addressing the causality and complexity of the linkages using multiple lines of evidence, adopting large-ensemble approaches and artificial intelligence, achieving synergy between different methodologies/disciplines, widening the context, and coordinated international collaboration.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143901287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Air–sea interactions amplified by tropical cyclones break the South China Sea summer monsoon 热带气旋放大的海气相互作用打破了南海夏季风

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01035-7

Minghao Bi, Ke Xu, Riyu Lu

引用次数: 0

The impacts of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on humidity-based extreme heat 植物对二氧化碳上升的生理反应对基于湿度的极端高温的影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01018-8

Ashley E. Cornish, Gabriel J. Kooperman, Andrew J. Grundstein, Christopher B. Skinner, Abigail L. S. Swann

{"title":"The impacts of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on humidity-based extreme heat","authors":"Ashley E. Cornish, Gabriel J. Kooperman, Andrew J. Grundstein, Christopher B. Skinner, Abigail L. S. Swann","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01018-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01018-8","url":null,"abstract":"Plant physiological responses to rising CO2 have been shown to contribute to increasing extreme heat; but their impacts on co-occurrences of high heat and humidity have not been assessed previously. Since heat stress depends on both, reductions in evapotranspiration and increases in sensible heat can incite competing influences on co-occurrence metrics (e.g., heat index). Here we analyze plant physiological forcing in idealized simulations that isolate plant physiological from radiative impacts of rising CO2. Our results demonstrate that increasing temperature has a larger influence than declining moisture, leading to overall CMIP6 multi-model mean heat index increases. Model differences are driven by varying levels of transpiration decline, which can be partially offset by leaf-area-driven increases in canopy evaporation in some models/regions; as highlighted by differences between two versions of one model (CESM) with high and low levels of leaf-area change. This analysis helps clarify the role of plants in future climate and human health.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143901285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Different roles of Indian Ocean Basin and Dipole modes in tropical Pacific climate variability 印度洋盆地和偶极子模态在热带太平洋气候变率中的不同作用

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01065-1

Yingying Zhao, Fengfei Song, Daoxun Sun, Lu Dong, Antonietta Capotondi

{"title":"Different roles of Indian Ocean Basin and Dipole modes in tropical Pacific climate variability","authors":"Yingying Zhao, Fengfei Song, Daoxun Sun, Lu Dong, Antonietta Capotondi","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01065-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01065-1","url":null,"abstract":"Indian Ocean (IO) variability, including the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode has been suggested to influence Tropical Pacific (TP) variability. On the other hand, variability in the tropical Pacific, especially the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has also been presented as a major driver of both IOB and IOD. The relative importance of these coupled feedbacks is still debated. Here, we use a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) capable of selectively including or excluding IO-TP coupling to evaluate the relative roles of the IOB and IOD modes on TP variability, and the preferred timescales of those impacts. Our findings reveal a reduction in TP interannual variability (~40%) and a substantial increase in central TP low-frequency variability (>6 years) in the absence of IO coupling. Specifically, both the IOB and IOD contribute significantly to TP interannual variance. IOB dynamics substantially damp central TP low-frequency variability, while the IOD exhibits negligible impacts on the TP at low-frequencies. We further assess the relative importance of internal IO dynamics versus that induced in the IO by the Pacific in shaping tropical Pacific variability. Our findings indicate that internal IO dynamics predominantly impact Pacific interannual variance, while the Pacific’s influence on the IOB, rather than internal IOB dynamics, is the primary factor dampening Pacific low-frequency variance. This study deepens our understanding of the intricate coupled IO-TP interactions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143901289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0