npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

{"title":"ENSO teleconnections with the NAE sector during December in CMIP5/CMIP6 models: impacts of the atmospheric mean state","authors":"Davide Sabatani, Silvio Gualdi","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01064-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01064-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates how the atmospheric mean state influences the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections with the North Atlantic-European (NAE) region, using ERA5 and CMIP5/CMIP6 models. By isolating the contributions of heating anomalies in the Niño 3.4 and Tropical Western-Eastern Indian Ocean (TWEIO) regions, we find that in November, the Niño 3.4 teleconnection dominates, projecting onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In December, the TWEIO teleconnection prevails, reinforcing the positive NAO via a zonal wavenumber-3 Rossby wave train originating from SouthEast Asia (SEA). Models that fail to simulate the December ENSO teleconnection with the NAE exhibit a weak Rossby wave source in SEA and overly strong subtropical Pacific and Atlantic jet streams, which trap Rossby waves at lower latitudes, affecting the remote atmospheric response over the NAE. This waveguide bias is likely driven by a cold bias in the northern Pacific and Atlantic, a common mean-state error in climate models.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144305251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding drivers and uncertainty in projected African precipitation","authors":"Thierry N. Taguela, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, Tolulope E. Adeliyi, Alan Rhoades, Robert H. Nazarian","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01123-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01123-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate the drivers of projected summer precipitation changes and their uncertainties across Africa in the second half of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios using CMIP6 models. Our results reveal distinct regional precipitation changes, particularly under SSP5-8.5, with robust increases of 75%, 24%, and 17% over the Sahara, South Eastern Africa, and South Central Africa, respectively, and a decline of up to 5% over West Southern Africa (WSAF). In most regions, precipitation increases are driven by enhanced vertical thermodynamic processes associated with temperature-induced moisture increases and enhanced moisture convergence. In contrast, the WSAF decrease is associated with vertical dynamic processes driven by a weakening of the Hadley circulation’s ascending branch. Model uncertainty accounts for over 85% of total projection uncertainty across all regions and is largely due to subgrid-scale parameterizations. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of climate change impacts on African precipitation.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144305256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Northward propagation of Hadley Cell in the South Asian monsoon region driven by active convection over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau triggered by sea surface temperature warming of the North Atlantic","authors":"Wenyue Cai, Xiangde Xu, Yanju Liu, Yaoming Ma, Chunzhu Wang, Runze Zhao, Chan Sun, Na Dong, Ruibo Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01075-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01075-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the high-impact area of the North Atlantic prompts active convection over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), which consequently drives the Hadley Cell (HC) in the South Asian monsoon region to shift northward. This interaction mechanism stresses the “hub” effect of the QTP in the atmospheric energy and water cycle of the low- to mid–high latitude systems during the convergence of westerly and monsoon winds. The Rossby source, also famous as the “oscillation source,” formed in the upper troposphere by the SST variations in the high-impact area of the North Atlantic, is an essential “thermal driving source” for the interannual shifts in convection over the QTP. The meridional teleconnection wave train structure triggered by the warming (1991–2020)/cooling (1961–1990) of the SST in the high-impact area of the mid–high latitudes of the North Atlantic displays a reversed phase. The Rossby wave train, which spreads from the North Atlantic to the QTP during the high-impact sea surface warming phase in the North Atlantic, indicates a remarkable anticyclonic structure (strong divergence) in the high altitude (200 hPa) of the QTP, which favors the generation of active convective activity in the latter 30 years. By contrast, convective activity is blocked. During the two stages of 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, despite a significant interdecadal positive and negative phase reversal in the North Atlantic Multiyear Oscillation (AMO), the variance in the definition range between the AMO and the high-impact area of the North Atlantic led to substantial differences in the meridional teleconnection wave train structures and the corresponding effects. In addition, the latent heat emitted by the enhanced convective activity on the QTP during the sea surface warming phase in the high-impact area of the North Atlantic can strengthen the “heat pump” effect of the QTP, cause the northward shift of HC in the South Asian monsoon region, and spark the mutual feedback mechanism between the plateau convection and the HC in the South Asian monsoon region. According to these interdecadal response characteristics, this paper offers a comprehensive physical image that exhibits the mutual feedback between the convection over the QTP and the HC in the South Asian monsoon region, where the active convection is initiated by the SST warming in the high-impact area of the North Atlantic.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144305252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toward a unified parameterization of three dimensional turbulent transport in high resolution numerical weather prediction models","authors":"Ping Zhu, Kwun Yip. Fung, Xuejin Zhang, Jun A. Zhang, Jian-Wen Bao, Chuan-Kai Wang, Bin Liu, Zhan Zhang, Lucas Harris, Kun Gao, Fanglin Yang, Jongil Han, Weiguo Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01117-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01117-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, horizontal and vertical turbulent mixing is parameterized separately within the dynamic solver of a model and by a one-dimensional standalone module outside the dynamic core. This method becomes problematic as model resolution increases to the gray zone of turbulence parameterization where three-dimensional (3D) anisotropic turbulence tends to generate inter-connected horizontal and vertical mixing that cannot be artificially separated. To remediate the problem, a 3D scale-aware (SA) turbulence scheme based on a generalized turbulence closure applicable across scales has been developed and implemented in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). Simulations of 11 Atlantic basin storms of 2024 show that the new scheme substantially improves HAFS’s forecasting skill for storms with hurricane strength, suggesting that an appropriate account for 3D anisotropic turbulent transport is important for track and intensity forecast of tropical cyclones and provides a venue for realistically representing sub-grid-scale turbulence in NWP.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144305305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Link of the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasian pattern to the Southern Annular Mode variability","authors":"Hai Lin, Bin Yu, Nicholas M. J. Hall","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01102-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01102-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasian pattern (WACE) is a pair of opposing surface air temperature anomalies over the polar region and the midlatitude Eurasian continent, which is usually associated with Arctic Sea ice melt and midlatitude extreme weather. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we show evidence of an inter-hemispheric connection between SAM and WACE during boreal winter. A positive SAM leads to a negative WACE (and vice versa) 30–40 days later. This lagged remote influence of SAM is transmitted via a Rossby wave that crosses the equator in the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic. The ensuing WACE temperature pattern is then amplified by the greenhouse effect associated with the local humidity response. SAM also leads to a convection anomaly in the equatorial Atlantic which generates a Northern Hemisphere Rossby wave that reinforces WACE. The link between SAM and WACE revealed here indicates a dynamical origin for WACE. This long-distance teleconnection, and the lagged association between SAM and WACE may be relevant for subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144305311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Organics in the stratosphere: new insights from weather balloon flights conducted in France","authors":"Roland Benoit, Hazel Vernier, Jean-Paul Vernier, Lilian Joly, Nicolas Dumelié, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Loïc Vieille, Sandrine Delpeux, Cyril Crevoisier, Philippe Dagaut, Gwenaël Berthet","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01106-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01106-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Atmospheric aerosols significantly influence the Earth’s climate, yet they remain a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. Here, we present a set of unique offline analysis of organics collected from the ground to the stratosphere with ultimate sensitivity using a new balloon-borne sampling technique deployed on simple weather balloons. Activated and functionalized carbon fabrics were used to target chemical compounds in the gaseous and aerosol forms during three flights over France. Ultra-high-resolution mass spectrometry, enabling the detection of thousands of organic compounds, and highlighted high-carbon-number organics, indicating oligomerization in long-lived tropical stratospheric air masses. Our measurements suggest that large stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions could play a role in the formation of secondary aerosols in internally mixed particles and may explain the presence of organics with higher carbon numbers. These measurements revealed a drop in the number of unsaturated carbons at higher altitudes.</p><figure></figure>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144296064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global spatio-temporal ERA5 precipitation downscaling to km and sub-hourly scale using generative AI","authors":"Luca Glawion, Julius Polz, Harald Kunstmann, Benjamin Fersch, Christian Chwala","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01103-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01103-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation significantly impacts human lives. While reanalysis datasets provide consistent long-term global precipitation information that allows investigations of rainfall-driven hazards like larger-scale flooding, they lack the resolution to capture the high spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and miss intense local rainfall events. Here, we introduce spateGAN-ERA5, the first deep learning-based spatio-temporal downscaling of precipitation data on a global scale. SpateGAN-ERA5 enhances ERA5 precipitation data from 24 km and 1 h to 2 km and 10 min, delivering high-resolution rainfall fields with realistic spatio-temporal patterns and accurate rain rate distribution, including extremes. Its computational efficiency enables the generation of a large ensemble of solutions, addressing uncertainties inherent to downscaling challenges and supports practical applicability for generating high-resolution precipitation data for arbitrary ERA5 time periods and regions on demand. Trained solely on data from Germany and validated in the US and Australia, considering diverse climates, including tropical rainfall regimes, spateGAN-ERA5 demonstrates strong generalization, indicating robust global applicability. It fulfills critical needs for high-resolution precipitation data in hydrological and meteorological research.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144290230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Arctic stratospheric polar vortex collapse amplified South China extreme rainfall in April 2024","authors":"Qilu Wang, Anmin Duan, Aiguo Dai, Shutao Cao, Aoqi Zhou, Yuan Gao, Chunyan Xiao, Bingxian Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01107-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01107-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In March 2024, the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (ASPV) collapsed dramatically. The following April, extreme precipitation in South China (SCP) caused severe floods and economic damage. Whether and how they are connected is crucial yet unclear. Through observations and model simulations, we demonstrate that the ASPV collapse in March amplified extreme SCP in April 2024. As stratospheric anomalies persistently propagated downward, March ASPV had a pronounced impact on the North Atlantic tropospheric circulation in April, exciting eastward-propagating Rossby waves. The resulting lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over South China enhanced vertical motion and moisture transport, with vertical ascent dominating the extreme precipitation. The ASPV’s influence on SCP ranked just behind that of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and together they improved SCP predictability to 52%. A weakened March ASPV increased extreme April SCP occurrence by 45%. This finding reveals a robust polar−low-latitude teleconnection, highlighting the Arctic stratospheric signal as a crucial predictor in SCP and even low-latitude climate, further aiding in impact mitigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144288511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells","authors":"Nanyu Zhao, Hong Yan, Ge Shi, Fan Luo, Tao Han, Chengcheng Liu, John Dodson","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01100-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01100-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a critical concern, but understanding is limited by short instrumental records and low-resolution prehistoric data. Here, we present the first daily-resolution proxy data for investigating prehistoric TC activity, using a 12-year growth rate record of a fossil <i>Tridacna</i> shell (circa 3 ka BP) from the northern South China Sea (NSCS). By analyzing temporal patterns in the proxy data, we derived monthly TC frequency estimates. While modern TC frequency in the NSCS peaks in autumn (September–October), our results showed that TCs at 3 ka BP occurred more frequently in summer (June–July–August), with approximately 15% higher frequency than present. Combined with paleoclimate records, we suggested that this seasonal shift and increased frequency were likely linked to the relatively northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which provided favourable conditions for TC formation and development. Our findings imply that future warming would contribute to earlier TC seasons and increased TC frequency in the NSCS.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144290231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Persistent millennial-scale glacier fluctuations during the last glacial cycle in the southern Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Guocheng Dong, Weijian Zhou, Yunchong Fu, Feng Xian, Li Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01096-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01096-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Determining what was responsible for the last glacial millennial-scale glacier fluctuations can help to pinpoint the causes of abrupt climate events during that period. Yet, the question remains poorly constrained in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where glaciers react to the global climate system via the northern mid-latitude westerlies and Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). Here, we examine this issue through ¹⁰Be exposure dating of moraines in the western Nyainqentanglha Mountains, southern TP. We find that glaciers reached their maximum extent during the last glaciation before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and that the LGM termination pre-dated a rapid CO₂ rise at ~18 ka. Changes in summer air temperature, which is tied to the northern tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature by the northern mid-latitude westerlies, likely accounted for the pattern of glacial fluctuations, along with the ASM weakening. The rising summer solar insolation from 23 ka also made a positive contribution towards terminating the LGM.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144268942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}