npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

Projected weakening of Northern Hemisphere summertime high-latitude waveguide and teleconnection variability 北半球夏季高纬度波导的预估减弱和遥相关变率

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-10-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01577-4

Jin-Yong Kim, Changhyun Yoo, Qinghua Ding, Kyong-Hwan Seo

{"title":"Projected weakening of Northern Hemisphere summertime high-latitude waveguide and teleconnection variability","authors":"Jin-Yong Kim, Changhyun Yoo, Qinghua Ding, Kyong-Hwan Seo","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01577-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01577-4","url":null,"abstract":"Summertime high-latitude teleconnections shape persistent circulation anomalies and surface climate extremes across the Northern Hemisphere, yet their future evolution under anthropogenic warming remains poorly constrained. Using 31 CMIP6 models under SSP5-8.5, we examine projected changes in the high-latitude waveguide, teleconnection variability, and the resulting surface air temperature (SAT) response. The CMIP6 ensemble projects an ~20.3% weakening of the 250 hPa meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient over 50°–80°N during 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014. This weakening is driven primarily by the projected warming pattern itself: enhanced upper-tropospheric warming at low-to-mid latitudes together with vertically extensive Arctic warming reduces the meridional contrast in upper-tropospheric static stability. This weakened waveguide in turn supports less large-scale atmospheric variability. The interannual variability of the leading EOF1–3 teleconnection modes, represented by 250 hPa meridional winds, decreases by ~3.6%, with larger PV gradient reductions across models corresponding to larger declines in variability. This dynamical weakening does not, however, translate into weaker SAT variability. Teleconnection-related SAT variance increases because SAT anomalies become more sensitive to local circulation anomalies, although the physical processes underlying this enhanced sensitivity are not yet fully understood. These results show that the weakening of the high-latitude waveguide in a warmer world is accompanied by complex and diverse responses across multiple fields.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149218245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Why the midlatitude ocean is warming faster in summer than in winter 为什么中纬度海洋在夏季比冬季变暖得快

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-10-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01567-6

Daniel J. Vimont,Michael A. Alexander,Jackson A. Zweifel,David S. Henderson,Tristan S. L’Ecuyer,Salil Mahajan,Sagar Rathod

引用次数: 0

Winter monsoon variability accompanies Xisha SST–North China hydroclimate teleconnection reversal during the Medieval climate anomaly 冬季风变率伴随西沙海温-华北水文气候遥相关反转

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-10-16 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01565-8

Leilei Jiang,Guijin Fang,Ziyun Huang,Yanmin Qin,Bailing Zhao,Xianyu Huang,Panpan Wu,Yuhao Tao,Ruogu Wang,Kefu Yu

{"title":"Winter monsoon variability accompanies Xisha SST–North China hydroclimate teleconnection reversal during the Medieval climate anomaly","authors":"Leilei Jiang,Guijin Fang,Ziyun Huang,Yanmin Qin,Bailing Zhao,Xianyu Huang,Panpan Wu,Yuhao Tao,Ruogu Wang,Kefu Yu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01565-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01565-8","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea is a precursor of North China hydroclimate, but the relationship’s long-term stability remains uncertain. Using monthly resolved Xisha coral Sr/Ca-SST and three hydroclimate reconstructions analyzed at native temporal resolution, we find that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 1149–1205 CE) is the only sampled interval with a cross-proxy-consistent positive relationship. The annually resolved Zheng record remains positive after detrending and autocorrelation correction ( r = 0.476, p adj = 0.043), whereas non-MCA relationships are predominantly negative or near zero. East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM)-related variability is largest during the MCA among the six intervals, yet its association with teleconnection strength is weak ( r = 0.52, p = 0.29), arguing against a universal threshold. Independent central-Pacific coral evidence indicates altered tropical-Pacific variability. Because winter-to-summer SST memory persists, we interpret the MCA reversal as downstream atmospheric reorganization, with EAWM variability as a possible preconditioning factor.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149209793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Strengthened relationship between August Laptev Sea ice retreat and September precipitation in Central China since 2005 2005年以来中部地区8月Laptev海冰退缩与9月降水关系的增强

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-10-16 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01568-5

Linwei Jiang,Kexu Zhu,Jianqiu Zheng,Haojie Wu

{"title":"Strengthened relationship between August Laptev Sea ice retreat and September precipitation in Central China since 2005","authors":"Linwei Jiang,Kexu Zhu,Jianqiu Zheng,Haojie Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01568-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01568-5","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The intensified interannual variability of September rainfall in Central China has led to increasingly frequent and devastating hydrological disasters over the past two decades. This study identifies the accelerated retreat of August Laptev Sea ice since 2005 as a critical, previously unrecognized precursor for September precipitation in Central China. Diagnostics show that post-2005 sea ice retreat and its heightened interannual variance substantially enhance local ice-ocean-atmosphere coupling compared with pre-2005. The resulting surface warming initiates a persistent “warm Siberia–cold North China” thermal dipole, which suppresses the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) over the Mongolian Plateau. This altered thermal gradient modulates transient eddy activity, driving an equatorward shift of the subtropical westerly jet through transient eddy–mean flow interaction, then strengthening the meridional secondary circulation. This configuration facilitates an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific, with anomalous southwesterly flow on its western flank importing moisture across Central China’s southern boundary. Coupled with deep ascending motion, this process drives enhanced September rainfall. These findings underscore the evolving impact of Arctic cryospheric change on mid-latitude climate, providing valuable insights for seasonal forecasting and water resource management.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149209794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Turbulent mixing by non-breaking surface waves in the ocean: theory, observation and modeling 海洋中非破碎表面波的湍流混合：理论、观测和模拟

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-10-14 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01554-x

Fangli Qiao,Norden E. Huang,Meng Wei,Weishuai Yuan,Chuan-Jiang Huang,Ka-Kit Tung

引用次数: 0

How different are tropical cyclone precipitation and convective properties during the evolution of fast-growing and slow-growing episodes 热带气旋降水和对流特性在快速增长和缓慢增长事件的演变过程中有何不同

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-10-14 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01353-4

Xinxi Wang,Haiyan Jiang,Wei Huang

引用次数: 0

Contribution of chemical components to cloud condensation nuclei prediction across multiple continental sites 化学成分对跨多个大陆站点云凝结核预测的贡献

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-10-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01575-6

Lin Yang,Jingye Ren,Xinya Liu,Baihua Chen,Liyuan Zhou,Darius Ceburnis,Wei Xu,Jun He,Matthew J. Ashfold,Ru-Jin Huang

引用次数: 0

Recent change in northward migration of the East Asian summer front and increased compound wet–hot conditions 东亚夏季锋北移的近期变化与复合湿热条件的增加

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-10-11 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01570-x

Suyeon Moon,OkYeon Kim,Hyungjun Kim

引用次数: 0

Tropical Indo-western Pacific forcing expedites warming in the northern Canadian-Greenland Arctic 热带印度洋-西太平洋强迫加速了加拿大北部-格陵兰北极地区的变暖

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-10-10 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01563-w

Shuai-Lei Yao,Renguang Wu,Pengfei Lin,Haosu Tang,Pengfei Wang

引用次数: 0

Sources of skillful seasonal forecasts of springtime CONUS tornado activity 春季CONUS龙卷风活动的熟练季节预报来源

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-10-10 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01542-1

Kai-Chih Tseng,Nathaniel C. Johnson,Andrew T. Wittenberg,Thomas L. Delworth,Hos-may Lopez,Dongmin Kim,Arun Kumar,Hui Wang,Feiyu Lu,William Cooke,Anthony J. Rosati,Liping Zhang,Colleen McHugh,Xiaosong Yang,Matthew Harrison,Fanrong Zeng,Hiroyuki Murakami,Mitchell Bushuk,Liwei Jia

引用次数: 0