npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions 对二氧化碳净零排放条件下温度变化的修正估计

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z

Alex Borowiak, Andrew D. King, Josephine R. Brown, Tilo Ziehn

引用次数: 0

Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting ENSO与欧洲早冬遥相关的多年代际变率及其对季节预报的影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01160-3

Pablo Fernández-Castillo, Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Diego García-Maroto, Elsa Mohino, Luis Durán

{"title":"Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting","authors":"Pablo Fernández-Castillo, Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Diego García-Maroto, Elsa Mohino, Luis Durán","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01160-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01160-3","url":null,"abstract":"The impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic and European sector (NAE) climate are season-dependent and, in some cases, not linear and/or not stationary. Previous studies have found multidecadal variability in ENSO teleconnections to NAE in certain seasons, relating it to changes in the background state. However, the stationarity of the teleconnection and its surface impacts in Europe during early winter remain largely unexplored, a gap intended to be addressed in this study. The observational analysis reveals changes in the teleconnection impacts and mechanisms over recent decades. These changes have strong implications for the assessment of seasonal predictability, hence the performance of the SEAS5 seasonal prediction model is analysed. While SEAS5 does not accurately capture the observed non-stationarity, it displays pronounced multidecadal changes in forecast skill. This implies the emergence of windows of opportunity for seasonal forecasting, where predictability may be higher than initially expected.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"109 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Toward skillful forecasting of super El Niño events using a diffusion-based westerly wind burst parameterization 利用基于扩散的西风爆发参数化技术预测超级El Niño事件

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01158-x

Chaopeng Ji, Mu Mu, Bo Qin, Tao Lian, Shijin Yuan, Jie Feng, Xunshu Song, Yuntao Wei, Guokun Dai, Jinyu Wang, Xianghui Fang

{"title":"Toward skillful forecasting of super El Niño events using a diffusion-based westerly wind burst parameterization","authors":"Chaopeng Ji, Mu Mu, Bo Qin, Tao Lian, Shijin Yuan, Jie Feng, Xunshu Song, Yuntao Wei, Guokun Dai, Jinyu Wang, Xianghui Fang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01158-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01158-x","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting super El Niño remains challenging, partly due to poor representation of westerly wind bursts (WWBs). We developed an artificial intelligence-based denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) to skillfully parameterize WWBs, capturing their joint modulation by oceanic and atmospheric processes. The DDPM-based scheme effectively captures observed WWBs’ characteristics (e.g., frequency, intensity, and spatial center). When implemented in the Community Earth System Model, it outperforms both the control (CTRL, without WWBs parameterization) and conventional warm pool eastern edge (WPEE)-dependent parameterization in predicting intensity and seasonal phase-locking for super El Niños (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16). This improvement stems from DDPM’s realistic WWBs representation, correcting CTRL and WPEE’s biases of overly weak and westward-shifted winds during El Niño growth. Consequently, DDPM produces more realistic eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly warming patterns. These findings underscore WWB's accuracy as key to super El Niño prediction and demonstrate machine learning’s potential for WWB's parameterization.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"210 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How to think about the clear-sky shortwave water vapor feedback 如何看待晴空短波水汽反馈

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01144-3

Florian E. Roemer, Stefan A. Buehler, Kaah P. Menang

引用次数: 0

A Generative Framework for Probabilistic, Spatiotemporally Coherent Downscaling of Climate Simulation 气候模拟的概率、时空相干降尺度生成框架

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01157-y

Jonathan Schmidt, Luca Schmidt, Felix M. Strnad, Nicole Ludwig, Philipp Hennig

{"title":"A Generative Framework for Probabilistic, Spatiotemporally Coherent Downscaling of Climate Simulation","authors":"Jonathan Schmidt, Luca Schmidt, Felix M. Strnad, Nicole Ludwig, Philipp Hennig","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01157-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01157-y","url":null,"abstract":"Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally decoupled spatial patches. However, to preserve physical properties, estimating spatio-temporally coherent high-resolution weather dynamics for multiple variables across long time horizons is crucial. We present a novel generative framework that uses a score-based diffusion model trained on high-resolution reanalysis data to capture the statistical properties of local weather dynamics. After training, we condition on coarse climate model data to generate weather patterns consistent with the aggregate information. As this predictive task is inherently uncertain, we leverage the probabilistic nature of diffusion models and sample multiple trajectories. We evaluate our approach with high-resolution reanalysis information before applying it to the climate model downscaling task. We then demonstrate that the model generates spatially and temporally coherent weather dynamics that align with global climate output.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144652371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Relative contribution of anthropogenic warming to the unprecedented heatwave in South America in 2023 人为变暖对2023年南美洲前所未有的热浪的相对贡献

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01142-5

Congren Li, Xiaojing Yu, Jianghua Zheng, Mingjiang Deng, Wanqiang Han, Ping Ma

{"title":"Relative contribution of anthropogenic warming to the unprecedented heatwave in South America in 2023","authors":"Congren Li, Xiaojing Yu, Jianghua Zheng, Mingjiang Deng, Wanqiang Han, Ping Ma","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01142-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01142-5","url":null,"abstract":"In 2023, South America experienced an unprecedented heatwave that threatened socioeconomic structures and ecosystems. This study uses attribution analysis to evaluate the contributions of atmospheric circulation patterns and human factors to the heatwave's probability and intensity. The 2023 heatwave is a 1-in-130-year event and a 1-in-65-year event, with and without considering the 2023 heatwave in the fitting, respectively. The large-scale meteorological analysis revealed that the heatwave was driven by an anomalously high-pressure system that formed a heat dome from dry, hot air columns. ALL (all-forcing scenario) and GHG (greenhouse gas scenario) simulations indicate the likelihood of future extreme heatwaves increases by 28.45% [27.60%, 29.30%] (90% confidence interval) and 30.42% [29.51%, 31.33%] (90% confidence interval), respectively, based on data from 1850 to 2014. Insights from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models emphasize that human-induced warming significantly contributes to heatwaves, which highlights the need for effective climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144652372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A dual-core model for ENSO diversity: unifying model hierarchies for realistic simulations ENSO多样性的双核模型：现实模拟的统一模型层次

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-14 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01164-z

Jinyu Wang, Xianghui Fang, Nan Chen, Bo Qin, Mu Mu, Chaopeng Ji

{"title":"A dual-core model for ENSO diversity: unifying model hierarchies for realistic simulations","authors":"Jinyu Wang, Xianghui Fang, Nan Chen, Bo Qin, Mu Mu, Chaopeng Ji","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01164-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01164-z","url":null,"abstract":"Despite advances in climate modeling, simulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains challenging due to its spatiotemporal diversity and complexity. To address this, we build upon existing model hierarchies to develop a new unified modeling platform, which provides practical, scalable, and accurate tools for advancing ENSO research. Within this framework, we introduce a dual-core ENSO model (DCM) that integrates two widely used ENSO modeling approaches: a linear stochastic model confined to the equator and a nonlinear intermediate model extending off-equator. The stochastic model ensures computational efficiency and statistical accuracy. It captures essential ENSO characteristics and reproduces the observed non-Gaussian statistics. Meanwhile, the nonlinear model assimilates pseudo-observations from the stochastic model while resolving key air-sea interactions, such as oceanic feedback balances and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies during El Niño peaks. The DCM effectively captures the realistic dynamical and statistical features of the ENSO diversity and complexity. The computational efficiency of the DCM also facilitates a rapid generation of extended ENSO datasets, overcoming observational limitations.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144630220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Future increase in European compound events where droughts end in heavy precipitation 未来欧洲复合事件增加，干旱以强降水结束

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01139-0

Birthe Marie Steensen, Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Erich Fischer

引用次数: 0

Linking North Pacific eastern subtropical mode water to ENSO: precursor signatures and subtropical cell pathways 连接北太平洋东部副热带模态水与ENSO：前体特征和副热带细胞通路

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01147-0

LingLing Liu, Jin-Yi Yu, Fan Wang, Jianing Wang, YongFu Lin

引用次数: 0

Diversity of La Niña onset La Niña发病的多样性