npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

Non-linear dynamical approaches for characterizing multi-sector climate impacts under irreducible uncertainty. 不可约不确定性下多部门气候影响的非线性动力学表征方法。

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01208-4

Rachindra Mawalagedara,Arnob Ray,Puja Das,Jack Watson,Ashis Kumar Pal,Kate Duffy,Udit Bhatia,Daniel P Aldrich,Auroop R Ganguly

{"title":"Non-linear dynamical approaches for characterizing multi-sector climate impacts under irreducible uncertainty.","authors":"Rachindra Mawalagedara,Arnob Ray,Puja Das,Jack Watson,Ashis Kumar Pal,Kate Duffy,Udit Bhatia,Daniel P Aldrich,Auroop R Ganguly","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01208-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01208-4","url":null,"abstract":"Internal climate variability (ICV) remains a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, complicating impact assessments across critical sectors, especially at stakeholder-relevant scales. Given that ICV emerges from the nonlinear interactions of the climate system, we argue that nonlinear dynamical (NLD) approaches can improve its characterization, providing physically interpretable insights that strengthen adaptation strategies and support multisector decision-making. However, despite their suitability for such problems, NLD approaches remain largely underutilized in the analysis of initial condition large ensembles (LEs). We argue that a diverse suite of NLD approaches offers a promising pathway for systematically extracting robust insights from LEs. If effectively applied and systematically integrated, these methods could fully harness the potential of LEs, uncovering underlying patterns and variability across ensemble members to refine fundamental insights from climate projections. This will help bridge the gap between complex climate dynamics and practical resilience strategies, ensuring that decision-makers, resource managers, and infrastructure planners have a more reliable foundation for navigating irreducible uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"28 1","pages":"329"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145182534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The global Sahel monsoon ocean-pressure index reconciles its regional and large-scale features 全球萨赫勒季风海洋压力指数符合其区域和大尺度特征

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01226-2

Alain T. Tamoffo, Torsten Weber, Fernand L. Mouassom, Benjamin Le-Roy, Claas Teichmann, Daniela Jacob, Alessandro Dosio, Akintomide A. Akinsanola

{"title":"The global Sahel monsoon ocean-pressure index reconciles its regional and large-scale features","authors":"Alain T. Tamoffo, Torsten Weber, Fernand L. Mouassom, Benjamin Le-Roy, Claas Teichmann, Daniela Jacob, Alessandro Dosio, Akintomide A. Akinsanola","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01226-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01226-2","url":null,"abstract":"Monitoring Sahelian rainfall variability is increasingly critical as climate extremes intensify across the region. Here, we develop the Sahelian Monsoon Ocean-Pressure Index (SMOPI), a novel global synthetic indicator constructed from five dynamically coherent sea-level pressure regions statistically linked to June-September Sahel monsoon rainfall. SMOPI captures intra-seasonal and interannual variability, and crucially, reflects the influence of both regional processes and large-scale teleconnections on monsoon dynamics. It aligns with the dominant rainfall variability mode in reanalyses and 29 CMIP6 models. Strong/positive SMOPI phases coincide with wet years and are associated with enhanced convergence, favorable jet configurations, and robust Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean teleconnections. Conversely, weak/negative SMOPI phases correspond to drought conditions and divergent moisture fluxes. SMOPI exposes model failures in reproducing historical droughts and offers new physical insights into rainfall-driving mechanisms. It stands out as a scalable, potentially transferable diagnostic tool for monitoring/forecasting and evaluating Sahelian monsoon rainfall under global warming.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145067864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unusual role of positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the record-low tropical cyclone genesis over the Western North Pacific in 2023 印度洋正偶极子在2023年西北太平洋历史最低热带气旋形成中的异常作用

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01206-6

Xi Luo, Lei Zhang, Johnny C. L. Chan, Weiqing Han, Xin Wang, Dongxiao Wang, Wen Xing, Yanying Chen

引用次数: 0

A stable Arctic amplification ratio in long-term transient simulation over the last 21,000 years 在过去21000年的长期瞬态模拟中稳定的北极放大比

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01212-8

Yuzhen Yan, Xinyu Wen, Junyu Mei, Xiao-Ming Hu

引用次数: 0

Indian summer monsoon rainfall drives Antarctic climate and sea ice variability through atmospheric teleconnections 印度夏季季风降雨通过大气遥相关驱动南极气候和海冰变率

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01213-7

Qianghua Song, Chunzai Wang, Lei Zhang, Hanjie Fan

引用次数: 0

2019-2020 Australian bushfire smoke, multi-year La Niña, and implications for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) 2019-2020年澳大利亚森林大火烟雾，多年La Niña及其对年代际太平洋涛动（IPO）的影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01204-8

Gerald A. Meehl, John Fasullo, Sasha Glanville, Antonietta Capotondi, Julie M. Arblaster, Aixue Hu, Nan Rosenbloom, Stephen Yeager

{"title":"2019-2020 Australian bushfire smoke, multi-year La Niña, and implications for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)","authors":"Gerald A. Meehl, John Fasullo, Sasha Glanville, Antonietta Capotondi, Julie M. Arblaster, Aixue Hu, Nan Rosenbloom, Stephen Yeager","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01204-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01204-8","url":null,"abstract":"The onset of a La Niña event in 2020, with a major contribution from the huge amounts of smoke produced by the disastrous 2019–2020 Australian bushfires, resulted in that event persisting over the next several years with significant impacts worldwide. Here, we attempt to understand the processes and mechanisms related to the wildfire smoke that could have sustained this multi-year high-impact event by analyzing initialized Earth system predictions with E3SMv2 and CESM2 with and without the effects of the Australian bushfire smoke. We hypothesize that Bjerknes feedback sustains the La Niña conditions through an intensified anomalous Walker Circulation that connects strengthened precipitation and ascent in the western Pacific with anomalous subsidence, an invigorated South Pacific High, stronger Trades, and cooler SSTs across the tropical Pacific. Some ensemble members transition to El Niño after 2 years, driven by the development of a positive North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) near Hawaii. Coupled processes in the off-equatorial western Pacific Ocean indicate a connection to the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation with implications for understanding and predicting interannual and decadal Earth system fluctuations.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances Eurasian cooling in response to historical Barents-Kara sea-ice loss 海洋-大气耦合增强了欧亚大陆对巴伦支-喀拉海冰损失的响应

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01211-9

Mian Xu, Shichang Kang, James A. Screen, Alexandre Audette, Wenshou Tian, Jiankai Zhang, Hao Yu, Han Zhang

{"title":"Ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances Eurasian cooling in response to historical Barents-Kara sea-ice loss","authors":"Mian Xu, Shichang Kang, James A. Screen, Alexandre Audette, Wenshou Tian, Jiankai Zhang, Hao Yu, Han Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01211-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01211-9","url":null,"abstract":"The potential for Arctic sea-ice loss, particularly in the Barents-Kara Seas, to induce Eurasian winter cooling remains contentious. Despite a significant correlation between Barents-Kara-Seas sea-ice loss and Eurasian winter cooling in observations, modeling studies suggest minimal causal influence. Through constraining Barents-Kara-Seas sea-ice to different states in ocean-atmosphere-coupled simulations, here we show that ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances the Eurasian cooling induced by historical sea-ice loss, though still weaker than observed, likely due to internal variability and confounding factors. Historical sea-ice loss induces stronger and deeper Arctic warming with ocean-atmosphere coupling than without, associated with a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian Trough, which promotes Eurasian cooling. However, ocean-atmosphere coupling has little influence on the Eurasian cooling response to projected end-of-the-twenty-first-century sea-ice loss. The Eurasian temperature response to historical sea-ice loss is dominated by dynamically-induced cooling, whereas strong thermodynamical warming masks dynamically-induced cooling in response to far-future sea-ice loss.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144916142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate 东移的北方夏季季内振荡加剧了气候变暖过程中北美地区的热浪和野火风险

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01196-5

Ziming Chen, Sandro W. Lubis, Jian Lu, Chuan-Chieh Chang, Huilin Huang, Wenyu Zhou, Bryce E. Harrop, L. Ruby Leung

{"title":"Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate","authors":"Ziming Chen, Sandro W. Lubis, Jian Lu, Chuan-Chieh Chang, Huilin Huang, Wenyu Zhou, Bryce E. Harrop, L. Ruby Leung","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01196-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01196-5","url":null,"abstract":"Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but its future changes and related extremes remain unclear. Here, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that under a high-emission scenario, BSISO convection will shift eastward by ~3° (~300 km) in 2065–2099, driven by moisture profile changes associated with sea surface temperature warming over central-to-eastern Pacific. This eastward-shifted BSISO convection, along with a northward expansion of the westerly jet, strengthens the BSISO teleconnections that extend into broader areas of North America. These changes will increase the BSISO-related heatwave risks by 23% and wildfire risks by 3.5 times over northern North America compared to present-day conditions. The findings underscore the amplification of BSISO’s influence on extreme risks of extreme weather, emphasizing the need for improved adaptation and mitigation strategies for future climates.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144916143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Refined aircraft landing-takeoff activity modeling to improve the estimation of aviation CO2 and pollutants emissions 改进飞机起降活动模型，提高对航空二氧化碳和污染物排放的估计

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01195-6

Chaoyu Wen, Jianlei Lang, Yunya Fu, Zekang Yang, Xiaoqing Cheng, Ying Zhou, Shaojun Zhang, Dongsheng Chen, Shuiyuan Cheng

{"title":"Refined aircraft landing-takeoff activity modeling to improve the estimation of aviation CO2 and pollutants emissions","authors":"Chaoyu Wen, Jianlei Lang, Yunya Fu, Zekang Yang, Xiaoqing Cheng, Ying Zhou, Shaojun Zhang, Dongsheng Chen, Shuiyuan Cheng","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01195-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01195-6","url":null,"abstract":"Air transport has become the fastest-growing carbon/air pollutant emission sources. Landing-takeoff (LTO) management is a cost-effective way to address aviation’s low-emission, decarbonization and energy-conservation challenges. Accurate estimation of LTO fuel and emissions is crucial. However, the widely-used International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) method with constant time-in-mode resulted in huge uncertainties. We established the Aircraft Landing-takeoff Time, Fuel, and Emission Model (ALTFEM), substantially improving the capability of dynamically capturing time-in-mode, to estimate LTO fuel consumption and emissions for each flight. The time-in-mode estimation errors of ALTFEM-estimated taxi in/out durations were reduced by 30.2% and 118% compared to ICAO-suggested defaults (taxi-in:420 s, taxi-out:1140 s). Our work improved the accuracy of airport-specific estimates for fuel, HC, NOx, and CO2 by 14%–40%, compared to ICAO-based results. Unexpected higher (1.1–1.2 times) energy-saving potentials during low-traffic periods were found in busy airports with longer taxi durations (e.g., the Shanghai-Pudong-International-Airport), implying a potential effective mitigation direction.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144905898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Robust impact of tropical Pacific SST trends on global and regional circulation in boreal winter 热带太平洋海温趋势对北半球冬季全球和区域环流的强烈影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01192-9

Joonsuk M. Kang, Rhidian Thomas, Nick Dunstone, Tiffany A. Shaw, Tim Woollings

{"title":"Robust impact of tropical Pacific SST trends on global and regional circulation in boreal winter","authors":"Joonsuk M. Kang, Rhidian Thomas, Nick Dunstone, Tiffany A. Shaw, Tim Woollings","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01192-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01192-9","url":null,"abstract":"Evidence has emerged of a discrepancy in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) trends over the satellite era, where most coupled climate models struggle to simulate the observed La Niña-like SST trends. Here we highlight wider implications of the tropical Pacific SST trend discrepancy for global circulation trends during boreal winter, using two complementary methods to constrain coupled model SST trends: conditioning near-term climate prediction (hindcast) simulations, and pacemaking coupled climate simulations. The robust circulation trend response to constraining the tropical Pacific SST trend resembles the interannual La Niña response. Constraining tropical Pacific SST robustly reduces tropical tropospheric warming, improving agreement with reanalyses, and moderately shifts the zonal-mean jets poleward. It also improves surface air temperature and precipitation trends in ENSO-sensitive regions, such as the Americas, South Asia, and southern Africa. Our results underline the importance of tropical Pacific SST for achieving confidence in multidecadal model projections.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144905897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0