Alex Borowiak, Andrew D. King, Josephine R. Brown, Tilo Ziehn
{"title":"Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions","authors":"Alex Borowiak, Andrew D. King, Josephine R. Brown, Tilo Ziehn","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>It is critical that climate changes beyond net zero are well understood to inform policymaking. Here we present a new estimate of post-abrupt net zero CO<sub>2</sub> temperature changes using a method that filters for variability on multiple timescales. Our findings indicate that 50 years after abrupt emission cessation, the multi-model median temperature change is −0.19 °C, with a range spanning from −0.44 °C to 0.04 °C, which is cooler than previous estimates.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pablo Fernández-Castillo, Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Diego García-Maroto, Elsa Mohino, Luis Durán
{"title":"Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting","authors":"Pablo Fernández-Castillo, Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Diego García-Maroto, Elsa Mohino, Luis Durán","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01160-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01160-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic and European sector (NAE) climate are season-dependent and, in some cases, not linear and/or not stationary. Previous studies have found multidecadal variability in ENSO teleconnections to NAE in certain seasons, relating it to changes in the background state. However, the stationarity of the teleconnection and its surface impacts in Europe during early winter remain largely unexplored, a gap intended to be addressed in this study. The observational analysis reveals changes in the teleconnection impacts and mechanisms over recent decades. These changes have strong implications for the assessment of seasonal predictability, hence the performance of the SEAS5 seasonal prediction model is analysed. While SEAS5 does not accurately capture the observed non-stationarity, it displays pronounced multidecadal changes in forecast skill. This implies the emergence of windows of opportunity for seasonal forecasting, where predictability may be higher than initially expected.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"109 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chaopeng Ji, Mu Mu, Bo Qin, Tao Lian, Shijin Yuan, Jie Feng, Xunshu Song, Yuntao Wei, Guokun Dai, Jinyu Wang, Xianghui Fang
{"title":"Toward skillful forecasting of super El Niño events using a diffusion-based westerly wind burst parameterization","authors":"Chaopeng Ji, Mu Mu, Bo Qin, Tao Lian, Shijin Yuan, Jie Feng, Xunshu Song, Yuntao Wei, Guokun Dai, Jinyu Wang, Xianghui Fang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01158-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01158-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Forecasting super El Niño remains challenging, partly due to poor representation of westerly wind bursts (WWBs). We developed an artificial intelligence-based denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) to skillfully parameterize WWBs, capturing their joint modulation by oceanic and atmospheric processes. The DDPM-based scheme effectively captures observed WWBs’ characteristics (e.g., frequency, intensity, and spatial center). When implemented in the Community Earth System Model, it outperforms both the control (CTRL, without WWBs parameterization) and conventional warm pool eastern edge (WPEE)-dependent parameterization in predicting intensity and seasonal phase-locking for super El Niños (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16). This improvement stems from DDPM’s realistic WWBs representation, correcting CTRL and WPEE’s biases of overly weak and westward-shifted winds during El Niño growth. Consequently, DDPM produces more realistic eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly warming patterns. These findings underscore WWB's accuracy as key to super El Niño prediction and demonstrate machine learning’s potential for WWB's parameterization.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"210 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Florian E. Roemer, Stefan A. Buehler, Kaah P. Menang
{"title":"How to think about the clear-sky shortwave water vapor feedback","authors":"Florian E. Roemer, Stefan A. Buehler, Kaah P. Menang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01144-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01144-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Earth’s climate feedback quantifies the response of Earth’s energy budget to temperature changes and thus determines climate sensitivity. The climate feedback is largely controlled by water vapor which absorbs both longwave radiation emitted by Earth and shortwave radiation from the Sun. For the clear-sky shortwave water vapor feedback <i>λ</i><sub>SW</sub>, a gap remains between process understanding and estimates from comprehensive climate models. Therefore, we present a hierarchy of simple models for <i>λ</i><sub>SW</sub>. We show that <i>λ</i><sub>SW</sub> is proportional to the change with temperature in the square of atmospheric transmissivity that depends on the atmospheric concentration of water vapor and its ability to absorb shortwave radiation. The global mean <i>λ</i><sub>SW</sub> is well captured by a simple analytical model that approximates the strong spectral variations in water vapor absorption, whereas its temperature dependence results from spectral details in water vapor absorption. With this study, we expand the conceptual understanding of an important but understudied feedback component.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jonathan Schmidt, Luca Schmidt, Felix M. Strnad, Nicole Ludwig, Philipp Hennig
{"title":"A Generative Framework for Probabilistic, Spatiotemporally Coherent Downscaling of Climate Simulation","authors":"Jonathan Schmidt, Luca Schmidt, Felix M. Strnad, Nicole Ludwig, Philipp Hennig","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01157-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01157-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally decoupled spatial patches. However, to preserve physical properties, estimating spatio-temporally coherent high-resolution weather dynamics for multiple variables across long time horizons is crucial. We present a novel generative framework that uses a score-based diffusion model trained on high-resolution reanalysis data to capture the statistical properties of local weather dynamics. After training, we condition on coarse climate model data to generate weather patterns consistent with the aggregate information. As this predictive task is inherently uncertain, we leverage the probabilistic nature of diffusion models and sample multiple trajectories. We evaluate our approach with high-resolution reanalysis information before applying it to the climate model downscaling task. We then demonstrate that the model generates spatially and temporally coherent weather dynamics that align with global climate output.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144652371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Relative contribution of anthropogenic warming to the unprecedented heatwave in South America in 2023","authors":"Congren Li, Xiaojing Yu, Jianghua Zheng, Mingjiang Deng, Wanqiang Han, Ping Ma","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01142-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01142-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In 2023, South America experienced an unprecedented heatwave that threatened socioeconomic structures and ecosystems. This study uses attribution analysis to evaluate the contributions of atmospheric circulation patterns and human factors to the heatwave's probability and intensity. The 2023 heatwave is a 1-in-130-year event and a 1-in-65-year event, with and without considering the 2023 heatwave in the fitting, respectively. The large-scale meteorological analysis revealed that the heatwave was driven by an anomalously high-pressure system that formed a heat dome from dry, hot air columns. ALL (all-forcing scenario) and GHG (greenhouse gas scenario) simulations indicate the likelihood of future extreme heatwaves increases by 28.45% [27.60%, 29.30%] (90% confidence interval) and 30.42% [29.51%, 31.33%] (90% confidence interval), respectively, based on data from 1850 to 2014. Insights from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models emphasize that human-induced warming significantly contributes to heatwaves, which highlights the need for effective climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144652372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jinyu Wang, Xianghui Fang, Nan Chen, Bo Qin, Mu Mu, Chaopeng Ji
{"title":"A dual-core model for ENSO diversity: unifying model hierarchies for realistic simulations","authors":"Jinyu Wang, Xianghui Fang, Nan Chen, Bo Qin, Mu Mu, Chaopeng Ji","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01164-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01164-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite advances in climate modeling, simulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains challenging due to its spatiotemporal diversity and complexity. To address this, we build upon existing model hierarchies to develop a new unified modeling platform, which provides practical, scalable, and accurate tools for advancing ENSO research. Within this framework, we introduce a dual-core ENSO model (DCM) that integrates two widely used ENSO modeling approaches: a linear stochastic model confined to the equator and a nonlinear intermediate model extending off-equator. The stochastic model ensures computational efficiency and statistical accuracy. It captures essential ENSO characteristics and reproduces the observed non-Gaussian statistics. Meanwhile, the nonlinear model assimilates pseudo-observations from the stochastic model while resolving key air-sea interactions, such as oceanic feedback balances and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies during El Niño peaks. The DCM effectively captures the realistic dynamical and statistical features of the ENSO diversity and complexity. The computational efficiency of the DCM also facilitates a rapid generation of extended ENSO datasets, overcoming observational limitations.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144630220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Birthe Marie Steensen, Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Erich Fischer
{"title":"Future increase in European compound events where droughts end in heavy precipitation","authors":"Birthe Marie Steensen, Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Erich Fischer","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01139-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01139-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Compound events where droughts end with heavy precipitation can lead to damage to infrastructure, crops and ecosystems that exceed those of an isolated drought or heavy precipitation event due to increased flooding and runoff from the hardened dry ground. Based on regional climate models we show that the occurrence of these compound events (drought ending with one in 100-day precipitation event) during summer in Europe increases by around 35% (+/−22%) for both the mid-century and end-of-century future projections with an intermediate emission scenario compared to present-day. This increase to 97% (+/−84%) for droughts ending in a more extreme precipitation event (occurring approximately once a year) and is greater than the increase in drought and heavy precipitation events separately. Central and Southern Europe are likely to experience the strongest absolute increase. Results highlight the need to prepare for and adapt to these rare but potentially devastating events.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
LingLing Liu, Jin-Yi Yu, Fan Wang, Jianing Wang, YongFu Lin
{"title":"Linking North Pacific eastern subtropical mode water to ENSO: precursor signatures and subtropical cell pathways","authors":"LingLing Liu, Jin-Yi Yu, Fan Wang, Jianing Wang, YongFu Lin","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01147-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01147-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mode waters play a crucial role in ocean heat and carbon storage, as well as in climate variability. Here we reveal a strong relationship between the North Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (NPESTMW) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. NPESTMW volume anomalies exhibit significant correlations with the Ocean Niño Index up to nine months in advance. Our analysis identifies two distinct pathways connecting NPESTMW and ENSO development. First, NPESTMW serves as a footprint of the Pacific Meridional Mode, a well-established ENSO precursor. Second, NPESTMW influences tropical Pacific sea surface temperature through the Subtropical Cell. Notably, our findings indicate that stronger NPESTMW volume anomalies are more closely tied to multi-year ENSO events than to single-year development, especially for the La Niña phase. These discoveries offer new insights into the roles of subtropical mode water in shaping ENSO development.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"210 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Diversity of La Niña onset","authors":"Xiao Pan, Tim Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01141-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01141-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Three La Niña onset types were identified by the K-means cluster analysis of equatorial sea surface temperature anomaly evolutions during the past 111 years (1910–2020). The first type is characterized by a slow basin-wide transition from a neutral year to La Niña, driven by tropical North Atlantic (TNA) warming, which induced anomalous easterlies in the equatorial western Pacific through atmospheric Kelvin wave responses. The easterly anomalies initiate a cooling by triggering upwelling oceanic Kelvin waves, shoaling the thermocline, and strengthening the westward zonal currents. The second and third types are a transition from a central Pacific (CP) and a super eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño to La Niña. The former is attributed to the CP El <span>({rm{Ni}}tilde{{rm{n}}}{rm{o}})</span> induced anomalous easterlies in EP that strengthened local surface latent heat flux and anomalous upwelling, whereas the latter is attributed to a substantially shoaling of ocean thermocline associated with the discharge of the preceding super El <span>({rm{Ni}}tilde{{rm{n}}}{rm{o}})</span>. These characteristics differentiate diversified types of La Niña onset.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}