npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

Observational evidence of compensatory influences of deforestation on downwind precipitation in Brazilian breadbaskets 森林砍伐对巴西产粮区顺风降水补偿性影响的观测证据

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01152-3

Hao Li, Damián Insua-Costa, Akash Koppa, João Lucas Geirinhas, Jessica Keune, Chiara M. Holgate, Francina Dominguez, Victoria M. H. Deman, Adriaan J. Teuling, Diego G. Miralles

{"title":"Observational evidence of compensatory influences of deforestation on downwind precipitation in Brazilian breadbaskets","authors":"Hao Li, Damián Insua-Costa, Akash Koppa, João Lucas Geirinhas, Jessica Keune, Chiara M. Holgate, Francina Dominguez, Victoria M. H. Deman, Adriaan J. Teuling, Diego G. Miralles","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01152-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01152-3","url":null,"abstract":"Stable and predictable wet-season rainfall is crucial for soybean production in Brazil. However, climate and land-use changes, particularly Amazon deforestation, have increased rainfall variability in the region in recent decades. Here, we investigate long-term growing-season rainfall changes over two major soybean breadbaskets in Brazil from the perspective of atmospheric moisture transport. Utilising a novel moisture tracking framework based on a Lagrangian model guided by observations, we identify moisture source regions where evaporation contributed to rainfall over these breadbaskets. Furthermore, we quantify the relative contributions of source evaporation versus atmospheric (thermo)dynamics changes to downwind rainfall variability. Our results indicate that deforestation-induced evaporation declines have negatively impacted downwind rainfall in the breadbasket regions. However, strengthened circulation, evidenced by increased water vapour transport and low-level wind speeds consistent with decreased tree cover, has enhanced moisture transport from upwind regions (including Amazonia and the Atlantic Ocean) to the Brazilian soybean breadbaskets. This highlights the compensatory effects of deforestation on rainfall through decreased evaporation and altered atmospheric (thermo)dynamics, and how these effects may influence downwind soybean productivity in South America. Further understanding these interactions is critical for developing land management strategies to mitigate the agricultural impacts of climate change in the region.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144684635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A global survey of stratospheric gravity waves generated by tropical cyclones 热带气旋产生的平流层重力波的全球调查

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01172-z

Xu Wang, Yuan Wang, Lifeng Zhang, Yun Zhang, Jiping Guan

{"title":"A global survey of stratospheric gravity waves generated by tropical cyclones","authors":"Xu Wang, Yuan Wang, Lifeng Zhang, Yun Zhang, Jiping Guan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01172-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01172-z","url":null,"abstract":"The stratospheric gravity waves generated by tropical cyclones (TC-SGWs) are useful for the monitoring of tropical cyclones (TCs) and are also important for the gravity-wave parameterization in numerical models, as they represent a distinct type of gravity waves. Previous studies on TC-SGWs have not characterized TC-SGW global distribution and corresponding local structure related to the background wind. Here we show the global distribution of the TC-SGWs based on 21 years of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder observations, and reveal three global hotspots of the waves as the North Atlantic-Northeast Pacific, the Northwest Pacific, and the South Pacific-Southern Indian region. We also characterize the local structure of the three hotspots and find that although displaying diverse anisotropic structures, they are all shaped by the combination of filtering and refraction effects of the background wind. Our findings provide a guide for global TC-SGW hotspots and demonstrate the contributions of the background wind, which can further provide a preliminary guide for TC monitoring through satellite observations of TC-SGWs.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144694125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Changes in atmospheric oxidants teleconnect biomass burning and ammonium nitrate formation 大气氧化剂的变化对生物质燃烧和硝酸铵的形成起着遥相关的作用

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01150-5

Damaris Y. T. Tan, Mathew R. Heal, Massimo Vieno, David S. Stevenson, Stefan Reis, Eiko Nemitz

{"title":"Changes in atmospheric oxidants teleconnect biomass burning and ammonium nitrate formation","authors":"Damaris Y. T. Tan, Mathew R. Heal, Massimo Vieno, David S. Stevenson, Stefan Reis, Eiko Nemitz","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01150-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01150-5","url":null,"abstract":"Open biomass burning has major impacts on the Earth system, including on air quality via the emission of primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Its effect on secondary inorganic PM2.5 formation is comparatively little investigated. Simulations with the EMEP MSC-W WRF atmospheric chemistry transport model reveal that global biomass burning emissions lead to elevated annual mean ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) concentrations in densely populated regions where biomass burning mostly does not occur. These regions include eastern USA, northwestern Europe, the Indo-Gangetic Plain and eastern China, where NH4NO3 conditional on biomass burning emissions constitutes between 29% and 51% of the annual mean PM2.5 conditional on biomass burning emissions. Biomass burning emissions of CO, NOx (NO and NO2) and volatile organic compounds perturb the HOx (OH and HO2) cycle globally, such that there is increased oxidation of anthropogenic NOx to HNO3. This results in additional contributions to local-scale secondary NH4NO3 in areas with high emissions of anthropogenic NOx and NH3. These teleconnections increase, by up to a factor of two, the contribution of biomass burning emissions to long-term PM2.5 concentrations, which measurements alone cannot identify as an impact of biomass burning activity. This may become relatively more important as anthropogenic sources of PM2.5 are reduced and as the wildfire component of biomass burning increases under climate change.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144677900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhanced El Niño predictability from climate mode interactions 气候模式相互作用增强El Niño可预测性

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01171-0

Tamás Bódai

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric impacts of Arctic sea ice anomalies on El Niño-Southern Oscillation 北极海冰异常对El Niño-Southern涛动的不对称影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01168-9

Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Renguang Wu, Bin Yu, Hans-F Graf, Zhibiao Wang, Xi Cao, Yuqiong Zheng

{"title":"Asymmetric impacts of Arctic sea ice anomalies on El Niño-Southern Oscillation","authors":"Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Renguang Wu, Bin Yu, Hans-F Graf, Zhibiao Wang, Xi Cao, Yuqiong Zheng","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01168-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01168-9","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies on the global climate system has received considerable attention in recent decades. Observations and model simulations indicate that winter Arctic SIC anomalies in the Greenland-Barents Seas significantly influence on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, whether this influence is symmetric remains unclear. Here, we demonstrate that the influence of SIC anomalies on the subsequent ENSO is asymmetric. An increase in SIC significantly affects the development of El Niño, whereas a decrease in SIC has only a weak influence on La Niña. Specifically, a winter SIC increase in the Greenland-Barents Seas induces deep Arctic cooling, which triggers an atmospheric wave train propagating to the subtropical North Pacific. The associated subtropical cyclonic anomaly leads to North Pacific Meridional Mode-like sea surface temperature (SST) warming in spring, which extends to the tropical Pacific via the wind-evaporation-SST feedback in the following summer and subsequently enhances El Niño development by tropical air-sea interaction processes. In contrast, a winter SIC decrease is accompanied by shallow Arctic warming, which is insufficient to generate an atmospheric wave train to modify the subtropical North Pacific oceanic and atmospheric states, and thus has a weak influence on the La Niña development. Further analysis suggests that the asymmetric impacts of Arctic sea ice anomalies on subtropical North Pacific air-sea conditions and ENSO events may also be partly due to differences in the atmospheric mean state between high and low SIC years. This study highlights the asymmetric impact of Arctic SIC anomalies on ENSO and tropical climate, emphasizing the need to consider these asymmetries when assessing global climate responses to Arctic sea ice variability.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144678151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions 对二氧化碳净零排放条件下温度变化的修正估计

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z

Alex Borowiak, Andrew D. King, Josephine R. Brown, Tilo Ziehn

引用次数: 0

Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting ENSO与欧洲早冬遥相关的多年代际变率及其对季节预报的影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01160-3

Pablo Fernández-Castillo, Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Diego García-Maroto, Elsa Mohino, Luis Durán

{"title":"Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting","authors":"Pablo Fernández-Castillo, Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Diego García-Maroto, Elsa Mohino, Luis Durán","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01160-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01160-3","url":null,"abstract":"The impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic and European sector (NAE) climate are season-dependent and, in some cases, not linear and/or not stationary. Previous studies have found multidecadal variability in ENSO teleconnections to NAE in certain seasons, relating it to changes in the background state. However, the stationarity of the teleconnection and its surface impacts in Europe during early winter remain largely unexplored, a gap intended to be addressed in this study. The observational analysis reveals changes in the teleconnection impacts and mechanisms over recent decades. These changes have strong implications for the assessment of seasonal predictability, hence the performance of the SEAS5 seasonal prediction model is analysed. While SEAS5 does not accurately capture the observed non-stationarity, it displays pronounced multidecadal changes in forecast skill. This implies the emergence of windows of opportunity for seasonal forecasting, where predictability may be higher than initially expected.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"109 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Toward skillful forecasting of super El Niño events using a diffusion-based westerly wind burst parameterization 利用基于扩散的西风爆发参数化技术预测超级El Niño事件

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01158-x

Chaopeng Ji, Mu Mu, Bo Qin, Tao Lian, Shijin Yuan, Jie Feng, Xunshu Song, Yuntao Wei, Guokun Dai, Jinyu Wang, Xianghui Fang

{"title":"Toward skillful forecasting of super El Niño events using a diffusion-based westerly wind burst parameterization","authors":"Chaopeng Ji, Mu Mu, Bo Qin, Tao Lian, Shijin Yuan, Jie Feng, Xunshu Song, Yuntao Wei, Guokun Dai, Jinyu Wang, Xianghui Fang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01158-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01158-x","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting super El Niño remains challenging, partly due to poor representation of westerly wind bursts (WWBs). We developed an artificial intelligence-based denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) to skillfully parameterize WWBs, capturing their joint modulation by oceanic and atmospheric processes. The DDPM-based scheme effectively captures observed WWBs’ characteristics (e.g., frequency, intensity, and spatial center). When implemented in the Community Earth System Model, it outperforms both the control (CTRL, without WWBs parameterization) and conventional warm pool eastern edge (WPEE)-dependent parameterization in predicting intensity and seasonal phase-locking for super El Niños (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16). This improvement stems from DDPM’s realistic WWBs representation, correcting CTRL and WPEE’s biases of overly weak and westward-shifted winds during El Niño growth. Consequently, DDPM produces more realistic eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly warming patterns. These findings underscore WWB's accuracy as key to super El Niño prediction and demonstrate machine learning’s potential for WWB's parameterization.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"210 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How to think about the clear-sky shortwave water vapor feedback 如何看待晴空短波水汽反馈

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01144-3

Florian E. Roemer, Stefan A. Buehler, Kaah P. Menang

引用次数: 0

A Generative Framework for Probabilistic, Spatiotemporally Coherent Downscaling of Climate Simulation 气候模拟的概率、时空相干降尺度生成框架

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01157-y

Jonathan Schmidt, Luca Schmidt, Felix M. Strnad, Nicole Ludwig, Philipp Hennig

{"title":"A Generative Framework for Probabilistic, Spatiotemporally Coherent Downscaling of Climate Simulation","authors":"Jonathan Schmidt, Luca Schmidt, Felix M. Strnad, Nicole Ludwig, Philipp Hennig","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01157-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01157-y","url":null,"abstract":"Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally decoupled spatial patches. However, to preserve physical properties, estimating spatio-temporally coherent high-resolution weather dynamics for multiple variables across long time horizons is crucial. We present a novel generative framework that uses a score-based diffusion model trained on high-resolution reanalysis data to capture the statistical properties of local weather dynamics. After training, we condition on coarse climate model data to generate weather patterns consistent with the aggregate information. As this predictive task is inherently uncertain, we leverage the probabilistic nature of diffusion models and sample multiple trajectories. We evaluate our approach with high-resolution reanalysis information before applying it to the climate model downscaling task. We then demonstrate that the model generates spatially and temporally coherent weather dynamics that align with global climate output.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144652371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0