npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

Predictability and prediction skill of summertime East/Japan Sea surface temperature events 夏季东海/日本海表面温度事件的可预测性和预测技能

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-08 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00754-7

Youngji Joh, SeonJu Lee, Young-Gyu Park, Thomas L. Delworth, Gyundo Pak, Liwei Jia, William F. Cooke, Colleen McHugh, Young-Ho Kim, Hyung-Gyu Lim

{"title":"Predictability and prediction skill of summertime East/Japan Sea surface temperature events","authors":"Youngji Joh, SeonJu Lee, Young-Gyu Park, Thomas L. Delworth, Gyundo Pak, Liwei Jia, William F. Cooke, Colleen McHugh, Young-Ho Kim, Hyung-Gyu Lim","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00754-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00754-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The East/Japan Sea (EJS), a marginal sea of the Northwestern Pacific, is one of the ocean regions showing the most rapid warming and greatest increases in ocean heatwaves over the last several decades. Predictability and skillful prediction of the summer season EJS variability are crucial, given the increasing severity of ocean temperature events impacting fisheries and reinforcing climate conditions like the East Asian rainy season, which in turn affects adjacent high-population density areas over East Asia. We use observations and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) seasonal forecast system to investigate the summertime EJS Sea Surface Temperature (SST) predictability and prediction skill. The observations and seasonal prediction system show that the summer season EJS SST can be closely linked to the previous winter air-sea coupling and predictable 8–9 months in advance. The SPEAR seasonal prediction system demonstrates skillful forecast of EJS SST events from summer to late fall, with added skill for long-lead forecasts initialized in winter. We find that winter large-scale atmospheric circulations linked to Barents Sea variability can induce persistent surface wind anomalies and corresponding northward Ekman heat transport over the East China Sea. The ocean advection anomalies that enter the EJS in prior seasons appear to play a role in developing anomalous SST during summer, along with instantaneous atmospheric forcing, as the source of long-lead predictability. Our findings provide potential applications of large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in understanding and predicting seasonal variability of East Asian marginal seas.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142152382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk assessment of glacial lake outburst flood in the Central Asian Tienshan Mountains 中亚天山冰湖溃决洪水风险评估

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00755-6

Man Chen, Yaning Chen, Gonghuan Fang, Guoxiong Zheng, Zhi Li, Yupeng Li, Ziyang Zhu

引用次数: 0

Incorporating heat budget dynamics in a Transformer-based deep learning model for skillful ENSO prediction 将热量收支动态纳入基于变压器的深度学习模型，以熟练预测厄尔尼诺/南方涛动

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00741-y

Bin Mu, Yuehan Cui, Shijin Yuan, Bo Qin

{"title":"Incorporating heat budget dynamics in a Transformer-based deep learning model for skillful ENSO prediction","authors":"Bin Mu, Yuehan Cui, Shijin Yuan, Bo Qin","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00741-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00741-y","url":null,"abstract":"While deep learning models have shown promising capabilities in ENSO prediction, their inherent black-box nature often leads to a lack of physical consistency and interpretability. Here, we introduce ENSO-PhyNet, a Transformer-based model for ENSO prediction, which incorporates heat budget dynamical processes through self-attention computations. The model predicts sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and achieves skillful predictions of the Niño 3.4 index with a lead time of up to 22 months. The self-attention maps reveal how the model makes predictions by focusing on specific processes in certain regions. Case analyses of recent El Niño and La Niña events underscore the impact of thermocline feedback and zonal advection feedback on the warming of the 2015 event, as well as the crucial role of anomalous easterlies in the emergence of the second-year La Niña in 2021. These findings demonstrate the model’s interpretability and its ability to identify signals that are physically consistent with the development of ENSO events.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00741-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142143899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Observational evidence reveals the significance of nocturnal chemistry in seasonal secondary organic aerosol formation 观测证据揭示了夜间化学在季节性二次有机气溶胶形成中的重要作用

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00747-6

Lu Liu, Thorsten Hohaus, Philipp Franke, Anne C. Lange, Ralf Tillmann, Hendrik Fuchs, Zhaofeng Tan, Franz Rohrer, Vlassis Karydis, Quanfu He, Vaishali Vardhan, Stefanie Andres, Birger Bohn, Frank Holland, Benjamin Winter, Sergej Wedel, Anna Novelli, Andreas Hofzumahaus, Andreas Wahner, Astrid Kiendler-Scharr

{"title":"Observational evidence reveals the significance of nocturnal chemistry in seasonal secondary organic aerosol formation","authors":"Lu Liu, Thorsten Hohaus, Philipp Franke, Anne C. Lange, Ralf Tillmann, Hendrik Fuchs, Zhaofeng Tan, Franz Rohrer, Vlassis Karydis, Quanfu He, Vaishali Vardhan, Stefanie Andres, Birger Bohn, Frank Holland, Benjamin Winter, Sergej Wedel, Anna Novelli, Andreas Hofzumahaus, Andreas Wahner, Astrid Kiendler-Scharr","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00747-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00747-6","url":null,"abstract":"Oxidized Organic Aerosol (OOA), a major component of fine atmospheric particles, impacts climate and human health. Previous experiments and atmospheric models emphasize the importance of nocturnal OOA formation from NO3· oxidation of biogenic VOCs. This seasonal study extends the understanding by showing that nocturnal oxidation of biomass-burning emissions can account for up to half of total OOA production in fall and winter. It is the first to distinguish nocturnal OOA characteristics from daytime OOA across all seasons using bulk aerosol measurements. Summer observations of nocturnal OOA align well with regional chemistry transport model predictions, but discrepancies in other seasons reveal a common model deficiency in representing biomass-burning emissions and their nocturnal oxidation. This study underscores the significance of near-ground nocturnal OOA production, proposes a method to differentiate it using bulk aerosol measurements, and suggests model optimization strategies. These findings enhance the understanding and prediction of nighttime OOA formation.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00747-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142142747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The role of sea surface salinity in ENSO forecasting in the 21st century 海面盐度在 21 世纪厄尔尼诺/南方涛动预报中的作用

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00763-6

Haoyu Wang, Shineng Hu, Cong Guan, Xiaofeng Li

{"title":"The role of sea surface salinity in ENSO forecasting in the 21st century","authors":"Haoyu Wang, Shineng Hu, Cong Guan, Xiaofeng Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00763-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00763-6","url":null,"abstract":"Significant strides have been made in understanding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, yet its long-lead prediction remains challenging, especially for the El Niño events after 2000. Sea surface salinity (SSS) is known to affect ENSO development and intensity by influencing ocean stratification and heat redistribution and therefore, when combined with sea surface temperature (SST) data, can potentially enhance ENSO forecast skill. In this study, we develop a deep learning (DL) model that incorporates a multiscale-pyramid structure and spatiotemporal feature extraction blocks, and the model successfully extends effective ENSO forecast lead time to 24 months for 2000–2021 with reduced effect of the spring predictability barrier (SPB). Interpretable methods are then applied to reveal the time-dependent roles of SST and SSS in ENSO forecast. More specifically, SST is critical for short-medium lead forecasts (<1 year), while SSS is important for medium-long lead forecasts (>6 months). Furthermore, we track global SST and SSS spatiotemporal shifts related to subsequent ENSO development, highlighting the importance of ocean inter-basin and tropics-extratropics interactions. With increasing availability of satellite SSS observations, our findings unveil unprecedented potential for advancing ENSO long-lead forecast skills.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00763-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142142748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Insight into wet scavenging effects on sulfur and nitrogen containing organic compounds in urban Beijing 北京城市含硫和含氮有机化合物的湿清除效应透视

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00756-5

Chunyan Zhang, Yonghong Wang, Jun Liu, Tianzeng Chen, Wei Huang, Zirui Liu, Biwu Chu, Qingxin Ma, Hong He

{"title":"Insight into wet scavenging effects on sulfur and nitrogen containing organic compounds in urban Beijing","authors":"Chunyan Zhang, Yonghong Wang, Jun Liu, Tianzeng Chen, Wei Huang, Zirui Liu, Biwu Chu, Qingxin Ma, Hong He","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00756-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00756-5","url":null,"abstract":"Sulfur-containing organic compounds (SOCs) and nitrogen-containing organic compounds (NOCs) play critical roles in regulating the physical and chemical properties of organic aerosols (OA), while the understanding of them remains limited. Here, the high-resolution real-time measurements of submicron aerosols were conducted in urban Beijing, mainly to investigate wet scavenging effects on the potential formation and evolution mechanism of OA, especially SOCs and NOCs. OA composition transitioned from being primarily SOCs before wet processes to NOCs after wet processes. Further molecular fragments identification suggested SOCs mainly comprised glycolic acid sulfate formed by aqueous-phase processing during the entire observation, and aromatic- and monoterpene-derived SOCs formed by photochemical processing before snowfall. NOCs species were diverse and dominated by highly oxidized amides and amino acids mainly produced by photochemical processing. This study provided an in-depth insight into the potential formation and evolution pathways of SOCs and NOCs in OA in the urban atmosphere.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00756-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142130967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tropical and Antarctic sea ice impacts of observed Southern Ocean warming and cooling trends since 1949 1949 年以来观测到的南大洋变暖和变冷趋势对热带和南极海冰的影响

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00735-w

Xiyue Zhang, Clara Deser

引用次数: 0

Author Correction: Global latitudinal patterns in forest ecosystem nitrous oxide emissions are related to hydroclimate 作者更正：森林生态系统氧化亚氮排放的全球纬度模式与水文气候有关

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00753-8

Jiayuan Liao, Wei Zheng, Qiong Liao, Sheng Lu

引用次数: 0

Hygroscopic behavior and aerosol chemistry of atmospheric particles containing organic acids and inorganic salts 含有有机酸和无机盐的大气颗粒的吸湿行为和气溶胶化学性质

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00752-9

Fang Tan, Hongbin Zhang, Kaihui Xia, Bo Jing, Xiaohong Li, Shengrui Tong, Maofa Ge

{"title":"Hygroscopic behavior and aerosol chemistry of atmospheric particles containing organic acids and inorganic salts","authors":"Fang Tan, Hongbin Zhang, Kaihui Xia, Bo Jing, Xiaohong Li, Shengrui Tong, Maofa Ge","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00752-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00752-9","url":null,"abstract":"Aerosol hygroscopic behavior plays a central role in determining climate effects and environmental influence of atmospheric particulates. Water-soluble organic acids (WSOAs) constitute a significant fraction of organic aerosols. These organic acids have a complex impact on aerosol hygroscopicity due to their physical and chemical interactions with atmospheric inorganic salts. The mixing of WSOAs with inorganic salts exerts a multiple influence on the hygroscopic growth and phase behaviors of aerosol particles, largely depending on the composition ratio, acid properties, particle size and interactions between particle components. The WSOAs play a critical role in determining water uptake characteristics of aerosol particles, especially in the low and moderate RH ranges. The previous studies reveal the occurrence of aerosol chemistry related to chloride/nitrate/ammonium depletions in aerosol droplets containing WSOAs and inorganic salts. The potential influence of WSOAs on the atmospheric recycling of HCl/HNO3/NH3 due to the chloride/nitrate/ammonium depletion may contribute to the atmospheric budget of reactive gases. A fundamental understanding for the hygroscopic behavior and aerosol chemistry of inorganic–WSOA systems is essential for the accurate parameterization of aerosol behaviors in atmospheric models. However, there is still lack of a comprehensive understanding of the hygroscopicity and related aerosol chemistry of internally mixed inorganic–WSOA systems. The present review comprehensively summarizes the impacts of WSOAs on hygroscopicity and phase changes of atmospherically relevant inorganic salts in aerosol particles especially under subsaturated conditions, and overviews the recent advances on aerosol chemistry related to the hygroscopic process for the internally mixed inorganic–WSOA aerosols.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00752-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142101666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Grand dipole response of Asian summer monsoon to orbital forcing 亚洲夏季季风对轨道强迫的大偶极响应

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00749-4

Qin Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhaowei Jing, Steven C. Clemens, Yongjin Wang, Mi Yan, Liang Ning, Jian Liu

{"title":"Grand dipole response of Asian summer monsoon to orbital forcing","authors":"Qin Wen, Zhengyu Liu, Zhaowei Jing, Steven C. Clemens, Yongjin Wang, Mi Yan, Liang Ning, Jian Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00749-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00749-4","url":null,"abstract":"The coherent continental-wide speleothem water isotope records are accompanied by regionally inconsistent moisture patterns within the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, leaving a disputed explanation of monsoonal hydroclimate variability at the orbital timescale. Here, the transient simulation forced by orbital parameters during the past 300,000 years in an isotope-enabled fully coupled model shows that the complex ASM response can be understood as a grand dipole pattern of oxygen isotope and rainfall between South Asia and Japan, with South China lying in a hybrid transition region. While the dipole monsoon rainfall change between South Asia and Japan is related to the large-scale circulation adjustment in response to Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, the dipole oxygen isotope pattern is associated with the changing contribution of moisture sources. Our results provide new clues to reconcile ASM hydroclimate patterns at orbital timescale as revealed by the water isotope records and other hydrological proxies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00749-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142101664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0