npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

Deciphering the capricious precipitation response: irrigation impact in the North China Plain 解读反复无常的降水响应：华北平原灌溉影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01063-3

Yuwen Fan, Zhao Yang, Min-Hui Lo, Jina Hur, Eun-Soon Im

{"title":"Deciphering the capricious precipitation response: irrigation impact in the North China Plain","authors":"Yuwen Fan, Zhao Yang, Min-Hui Lo, Jina Hur, Eun-Soon Im","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01063-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01063-3","url":null,"abstract":"Intensive irrigation in the North China Plain (NCP) raises environmental concerns, yet its climate impacts remain inconsistent among current modeling studies. These inconsistencies may arise from deficiencies in existing models. To better capture irrigation impact, we employed a recently improved irrigation model tailored for the NCP, which significantly enhances simulations of crop growth and irrigation application. Results reveal that irrigation exerts competing effects on precipitation: enhancing it in May and June by increasing rainfall frequency and intensity, while suppressing it in July and August by reducing intensity. Spatial precipitation changes correlate with upper-tropospheric humidity, while inter-annual changes link to geopotential height and wind anomalies. This suggests that irrigation-induced surface cooling and moisturizing modulate atmospheric thermodynamic and dynamic structures, influencing convective precipitation unevenly across regions and time, leading to complex precipitation changes. These findings highlight the complexity of irrigation impacts and emphasize the need for improved land representation in climate models.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144228789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assimilating summer sea ice thickness enhances predictions of Arctic sea ice and surrounding atmosphere within two months 同化夏季海冰厚度可以提高对两个月内北极海冰和周围大气的预测

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01050-8

Anling Liu, Jing Yang, Qing Bao, Frederic Vitart, Jiping Liu, Xi Liang, Mengqian Lu, Seong-Joong Kim, Daoyi Gong, Zhongxiang Tian, Hongbo Liu

{"title":"Assimilating summer sea ice thickness enhances predictions of Arctic sea ice and surrounding atmosphere within two months","authors":"Anling Liu, Jing Yang, Qing Bao, Frederic Vitart, Jiping Liu, Xi Liang, Mengqian Lu, Seong-Joong Kim, Daoyi Gong, Zhongxiang Tian, Hongbo Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01050-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01050-8","url":null,"abstract":"Subseasonal prediction of Arctic sea ice and associated atmospheric conditions during the melting season remains challenging due to limited understanding of sea ice initial conditions. This study integrates sea ice assimilation into the coupled model FGOALS-f2 using the localized error subspace transform ensemble Kalman filter, and conducts subseasonal predictions starting from August 1st over 2004–2023. Results show that simultaneous assimilation of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT) significantly improves sea ice predictions for up to two months, while assimilating SIC alone primarily benefits one-month lead predictions. SIT assimilation provides added predictive value for surface air temperature (SAT) forecasts beyond SIC assimilation alone, effectively extending the atmospheric influence of sea ice initial conditions to two months. This improvement in SAT predictions is primarily attributed to a more realistic representation of the surface energy budget. These findings highlight the pivotal role of summer SIT assimilation to enhance subseasonal predictions in the Arctic and challenge the conventional view that initial conditions affect only short-term forecasts. This study underscores the necessity for better representation of ice–atmosphere interactions in models and advocates for enhanced observational capabilities for summer SIT to improve subseasonal predictions in the Arctic and surrounding regions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144228793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hourly extreme rainfall projections over South Korea using convection permitting climate simulations 每小时极端降雨预测在韩国使用对流允许气候模拟

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01067-z

Ga-Yeong Seo, Seung-Ki Min, Donghyun Lee, Seok-Woo Son, Chanil Park, Dong-Hyun Cha

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric response of the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis to symmetric CO2 pathway 西北太平洋热带气旋形成对对称CO2路径的不对称响应

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01087-9

Hyunsuk Yoon, Seok-Woo Son, Jaeyeon Lee, Hyeong-Seog Kim, Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug, Seung-Ki Min, Sang-Wook Yeh

{"title":"Asymmetric response of the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis to symmetric CO2 pathway","authors":"Hyunsuk Yoon, Seok-Woo Son, Jaeyeon Lee, Hyeong-Seog Kim, Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug, Seung-Ki Min, Sang-Wook Yeh","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01087-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01087-9","url":null,"abstract":"The responses of the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis and associated large-scale atmospheric environment to varying CO2 pathways are investigated using an idealized CO2 removal experiment. In the experiment, CO2 concentration is first increased at the rate of 1% year−1 until quadrupled and then decreased at the same rate until it reaches the initial level. Our results indicate asymmetric changes in WNP peak-season (July–September) TC genesis between CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down periods, showing a significant reduction of TC genesis over the Philippine Sea and landfalling TCs in East Asia when the CO2 concentration is reduced. Such TC activity changes are attributed to the development of WNP anticyclonic circulation in the ramp-down period, in association with an El Niño-like delayed response in sea surface temperature. This asymmetric response of WNP TC activities to symmetric CO2 pathway may provide a reference for regional TC disaster prevention and preparations under mitigation conditions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global disparities in rural and urban population exposure to compound drought and heatwave events 城乡人口暴露于复合干旱和热浪事件的全球差异

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01025-9

Tao Li, Fengjiao Song, Andrée De Cock, Philippe De Maeyer, Jiayu Bao, Ye Yuan, Sulei Naibi, Anming Bao, Long Tuan Ho, Peter Goethals

{"title":"Global disparities in rural and urban population exposure to compound drought and heatwave events","authors":"Tao Li, Fengjiao Song, Andrée De Cock, Philippe De Maeyer, Jiayu Bao, Ye Yuan, Sulei Naibi, Anming Bao, Long Tuan Ho, Peter Goethals","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01025-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01025-9","url":null,"abstract":"The high occurrence of compound drought and heatwave events (CDHWs), driven by global climate change, poses a serious threat to humanity. However, their impacts on rural and urban populations remain unclear. This study analyzed CDHWs exposure in both rural and urban populations and found that the number of people chronically exposed to CDHWs has shown a clear upward trend over time. From 1901 to 2021, rural populations experienced 2.5 times the total exposure to CDHWs compared to urban populations. Over the past three decades, however, urban populations have experienced significantly higher exposure and a faster rate of increase than rural populations. Regionally, rural populations in Asia, North America, and Africa accounted for 41.06, 16.51, and 13.69% of the total global rural population exposure, respectively, while urban populations in Asia, North America, and Europe accounted for 32.31, 18.70, and 16.85% of global urban exposure, respectively. The climate-population interactive effects have been the dominant factors driving recent changes in population exposure. Our findings contribute to the risk assessment of CDHWs at both global and regional levels and provide reliable information for disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144188845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Early burst of Tibetan Plateau vortices increases extreme precipitation over Tibetan Plateau in early spring 青藏高原涡旋的早期爆发增加了青藏高原早春极端降水

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01094-w

Lun Li, Renhe Zhang, Jingzhi Su

引用次数: 0

Microphysical detection of nano-ice nuclei to ice crystals: a platform for ice nucleation research 纳米冰核到冰晶的微物理检测：一个冰核研究平台

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01062-4

Devendra Pal, Ryan Hall, Yevgen Nazarenko, Leonard Barrie, Parisa A. Ariya

{"title":"Microphysical detection of nano-ice nuclei to ice crystals: a platform for ice nucleation research","authors":"Devendra Pal, Ryan Hall, Yevgen Nazarenko, Leonard Barrie, Parisa A. Ariya","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01062-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01062-4","url":null,"abstract":"Atmospheric ice nucleation plays a crucial role in cloud formation, precipitation, and climate dynamics. However, the physicochemical properties of submicron ice nucleating particles (INPs) remain poorly understood, and distinguishing between nano- to micron-sized ice crystals and supercooled droplets in cloud microphysical processes remains a significant challenge. Here, we present the first detection of nano-sized ice crystals (390 nm) along with their physical properties using a portable platform for ice nucleation that integrates the McGill Real-time Ice Nucleation Chamber (MRINC) with advanced holographic microscopy and aerosol sizers. This platform enables real-time detection and differentiation of ice crystals and supercooled droplets, providing microphysical information into their spherical or non-spherical morphology, surface roughness, and phase characteristics, particularly for ice particles smaller than 500 nm. Automated algorithms facilitate the differentiation of individual and aggregated ice crystals within a size range of 390 nm to 100 µm, supporting time-resolved analyses of ice nucleation processes. Surface roughness (Rt, Ra) measurements and 3D structural data offer critical insights into light scattering and radiation interactions, with smaller ice crystals (<1 µm) exhibiting higher roughness and enhanced multidirectional scattering. Validation through computational fluid dynamics simulations and experiments demonstrates platform ability to differentiate silver iodide-nucleated ice crystals from supercooled droplets and to monitor aerosol growth, advancing our understanding of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144164825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

ACE2: accurately learning subseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability and forced responses ACE2：精确地学习亚季节到年代际的大气变率和强迫响应

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01090-0

Oliver Watt-Meyer, Brian Henn, Jeremy McGibbon, Spencer K. Clark, Anna Kwa, W. Andre Perkins, Elynn Wu, Lucas Harris, Christopher S. Bretherton

{"title":"ACE2: accurately learning subseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability and forced responses","authors":"Oliver Watt-Meyer, Brian Henn, Jeremy McGibbon, Spencer K. Clark, Anna Kwa, W. Andre Perkins, Elynn Wu, Lucas Harris, Christopher S. Bretherton","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01090-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01090-0","url":null,"abstract":"Existing machine learning models of weather variability are not formulated to enable assessment of their response to varying external boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. Here we present ACE2 (Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2) and its application to reproducing atmospheric variability over the past 80 years on timescales from days to decades. ACE2 is a 450M-parameter autoregressive machine learning emulator, operating with 6-hour temporal resolution, 1° horizontal resolution and eight atmospheric vertical layers. It exactly conserves global dry air mass and moisture and can be stepped forward stably for arbitrarily many steps with a throughput of about 1500 simulated years per wall clock day. ACE2 generates emergent phenomena such as tropical cyclones, the Madden Julian Oscillation, and sudden stratospheric warmings. Furthermore, it accurately reproduces the atmospheric response to El Niño variability and global trends of temperature over the past 80 years. However, its sensitivities to separately changing sea surface temperature and carbon dioxide are not entirely realistic.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144176911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Disentangling density and geometry in weather regime dimensions using stochastic twins 用随机双胞胎解开天气状态维度中的密度和几何

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01086-w

Paul Platzer, Bertrand Chapron, Gabriele Messori

引用次数: 0

Decadal variability of summer extreme heat in central-eastern China and its synergistic effects by the North Atlantic and tropical western Pacific SST 中国中东部夏季极端高温的年代际变化及其北大西洋和热带西太平洋海温的协同效应

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01092-y

Tiejun Xie, Hui Gao, Ting Ding, Xintong Chen, Wei Wang

{"title":"Decadal variability of summer extreme heat in central-eastern China and its synergistic effects by the North Atlantic and tropical western Pacific SST","authors":"Tiejun Xie, Hui Gao, Ting Ding, Xintong Chen, Wei Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01092-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01092-y","url":null,"abstract":"It was found that the Central-eastern China’s summer extreme heat (CECSH) has a decadal variability with a cycle of about 70 years and is significantly positively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) core area sea surface temperature (SST; AMOCORE) and the tropical western Pacific SST (WPSST) in boreal summer. Diagnostic analyses such as synergistic diagnostic and linear baroclinic model (LBM) experiments show that the warm AMOCORE and WPSST in boreal summer can generate the localized heat dome (HD) over Mongolia to northeast China by exciting local convection and subsequent propagation, respectively, which in turn directly influences the CECSH decadal variability through compression of the atmosphere and temperature transport. The empirical models of the CECSH decadal variability were constructed based on the AMOCORE or the WPSST separately and synergistically considering both, and the empirical model considering the synergistic effects of the AMOCORE and the WPSST had better simulation capability.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144153754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0