npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

{"title":"Antarctic haze phenomena at Syowa Station, Antarctica: seasonal features and impacts on atmospheric chemistry","authors":"Keiichiro Hara, Kano Osato, Masanori Yabuki, Kazuo Osada, Naohiko Hirasawa, Masataka Shiobara, Takashi Yamanouchi","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01176-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01176-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite the cleanest conditions, haze phenomena were observed at Syowa Station, Antarctica. During our measurements period of 1997–2022, 113 haze events were identified. General characteristics of Antarctic haze such as duration and horizontal scale were obtained from haze event analyses. Antarctic haze near the surface was identified mostly during May–October. Seasonal features of the Antarctic haze appearance were that they were maximal in August and were associated with strong wind conditions and sea-ice extent. Aerosol enhanced layers (AELs) appeared in the surface – free troposphere (ca. 4 km). AELs were identified also in mid-April – October. Furthermore, surface ozone (O₃) was depleted during the Antarctic haze. The O₃ depletion amount was maximal during August and minimal during polar night (June). Findings suggest that Antarctic haze phenomena make important contributions to atmospheric oxidative capacity and cloud processes in the Antarctic troposphere.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144756558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Early or delayed Northern Hemisphere warming driven by the AMOC in a net-zero CO2 world","authors":"Yong-Han Lee, Sang-Wook Yeh, Guojian Wang, Soon-Il An, Hajoon Song, Seok-Woo Son, Young-Min Yang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01165-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01165-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Most countries have committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 °C–2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures respond under net-zero CO₂ remains uncertain. Using climate model simulations, we have found that NH temperatures exhibit either early or delayed warming following the achievement of net-zero emissions. These divergent responses are driven by differences in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which begins to diverge ~50 years prior to net-zero. In cases of early warming, increased salinity in the subpolar Atlantic leads to earlier AMOC recovery. Conversely, delayed AMOC recovery postpones NH warming. These results highlight the critical role of pre-net-zero conditions in the subpolar North Atlantic in determining the divergent responses of NH warming after net-zero emissions.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144763446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weakening of regional contrasts in glacier changes around the Tarim Basin in the early 21st century","authors":"Xiaoqian Xu, Wen Wang, Linghong Ke, Pinxuan Zhou","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01173-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01173-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Tarim Basin, the largest inland arid basin in the world, is characterized by limited precipitation due to the blocking effect of surrounding mountain ranges. Glaciers in these mountains play a crucial role in regulating the region’s hydrological system. Significant spatial variability in glacier dynamics around the High Mountains Surrounding the Tarim Basin (HMTB) has been documented, with accelerated thinning in the north, moderate thinning in the west, and anomalous mass gain in the south before 2015. However, the temporal dynamics of glacier changes and regional contrasts in the HMTB remain poorly understood due to the scarcity of continuous and consistent observational data. This study investigates glacier changes in the HMTB during 2003–2023 using merged multi-mission satellite altimetry data (ICESat GLAH14, CryoSat-2 L2I, and ICESat-2 ATL06), processed with Seasonal-Trend decomposition based on Loess (STL) to extract long-term trends from seasonal signals. A comparison between 2003–2009 and 2018–2023 reveals a recent weakening of spatial heterogeneity, characterized by accelerated thinning in the southern and western HMTB (e.g., East Kunlun from −0.11 ± 0.04 m yr⁻¹ to −0.22 ± 0.02 m yr⁻¹; Pamir from −0.23 ± 0.05 m yr⁻¹ to −0.35 ± 0.02 m yr⁻¹), reduced elevation gains in “Karakoram Anomaly” regions (e.g., West Kunlun from +0.19 ± 0.02 m yr⁻¹ to +0.06 ± 0.01 m yr⁻¹), and decelerated thinning in the northern HMTB (e.g., East Tien Shan from −0.60 ± 0.06 m yr⁻¹ to −0.52 ± 0.03 m yr⁻¹). This decrease in spatial heterogeneity may drive by declining winter-spring snowfall and intensified summer warming in the south and west, coupled with a slowdown autumn warming and increased spring snowfall in the north. However, the coarse spatial resolution of CryoSat-2 limits the construction of a continuous glacier monitoring time series at finer grid scales, hindering further detailed analysis of small-scale dynamics. Despite these limitations, our study provides important baseline data for future glacier change predictions and water resource planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144756562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected tropical cyclone genesis and seasonality changes in the Northern Hemisphere under a warming climate","authors":"Erandani Lakshani Widana Arachchige, Wen Zhou, Ralf Toumi, Xuan Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01170-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01170-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The impact of global warming on future tropical cyclone (TC) development is substantial; however, the predictability of TC genesis remains uncertain. In this study, we investigate projected changes in TC genesis on a regional scale over the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) ocean basins, focusing on TC seasonality through bias-corrected model simulations. Our study unveils a weakening of peak TC genesis (August-October; ASO) at lower latitudes under a high-emission scenario, along with a strengthening of TC peak (July-September; JAS) at higher latitudes. Most importantly, positive vertical velocity (ω) in the mid-troposphere (500 hPa) plays a dominant role in weakening the TC peak in the tropics, while weak vertical wind shear (VWS) in the subtropics facilitates TC development. Our study elucidates the impact of climate change on the regional environment and the ensuing possible changes in TC seasonality, offering essential insights into future projected TC genesis in the Northern Hemisphere.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"723 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144756431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Considering sectoral warming and cooling emissions and their lifetimes can improve climate change mitigation policies","authors":"B. Buma, I. Ocko, B. Walkowiak, Y. Xu, M. Lackner, S. S. Sartzetakis, A. Alpert, S. Dhungel","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01131-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01131-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are typically a mix of warmers/coolers and short-lived/long-lived species. This suite of emissions should be taken into account to drive better climate. We quantify 33 emitted species since 1750 from seven economic sectors and their impact on present-day warming. We then assess how today’s sectoral emissions impact future temperatures. Sectors that predominantly emit short-lived warmers drive half of today’s warming (~0.6 °C). However, their current-year emissions have a lesser impact on 100-year temperature projections due to proportionally lower longer-lived species. Sectoral emissions dominated by longer-lived warmers impact temperature for centuries – an impact which accumulates over time. However, shorter-lived climate coolers from these sectors mask ~50% of their present-day warming (~33% overall). This means actions necessary to reduce long-lived warming may temporarily increase near-term temperatures. Successfully limiting both near- and long-term warming requires considering this interplay and accelerating climate ambitions to offset any decline in coolers.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144737493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A framework for advancing independent air quality sensor measurements via transparent data generating process classification","authors":"Sebastian Diez, Thomas J. Bannan, Miriam Chacón-Mateos, Pete M. Edwards, Valerio Ferracci, Doğuşhan Kılıç, Alastair C. Lewis, Carl Malings, Nicholas A. Martin, Olalekan Popoola, Colleen Rosales, Sean Schmitz, Philipp Schneider, Erika von Schneidemesser","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01161-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01161-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We propose operational definitions and a classification framework for air quality sensor-derived data, thereby aiding users in interpreting and selecting suitable data products for their applications. We focus on differentiating independent sensor measurements (ISM) from other data products, emphasizing transparency and traceability. Recommendations are provided for manufacturers, academia, and standardization bodies to adopt these definitions, fostering data product differentiation and incentivizing the development of more robust, reliable sensor hardware.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"715 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144737494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling multiscale drivers of wind speed in Michigan using machine learning","authors":"Carson Evans, Laiyin Zhu, Kathleen Baker, Lei Meng","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01166-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01166-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Great Lakes region has a unique climatology due to its large water bodies. Dynamic seasonal wind speeds are an important component in this climate that requires further study. Using 10-m wind data from ERA5-Land, this study employs remote teleconnection indices and local climate features to predict low-level wind speeds using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning. The model for monthly winds achieves high accuracy, with an <i>R</i>² of 0.96 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.12 m/s⁻¹. The Shapley Additive Values (SHAP) analysis reveals that local climate variables, including the proximity to the nearest Great Lake, surface roughness, and surface temperature, are the most influential predictors and are most important in the model. Teleconnections such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation play minor roles. This study provides a new multiscale perspective on wind speed characteristics, drivers, and insights into the region’s wind energy potential.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144737495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Challenges in assessing Fire Weather changes in a warming climate","authors":"Aurora Matteo, Ginés Garnés-Morales, Alberto Moreno, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Joaquín Bedia, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Robert J. H. Dunn, Sixto Herrera, Antonello Provenzale, Yann Quilcaille, Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez, Marco Turco","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01163-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01163-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), widely used to assess wildfire danger, typically relies on noon-specific meteorological data. However, climate models often provide only daily aggregated values, posing a challenge for accurate FWI calculations. We evaluated daily approximations for FWI95d—the annual count of extreme fire-weather days—against the standard noon-based method (1980–2023). Our findings reveal that noon-based FWI95d show a global increase of ~65% (11.66 days over 44 years). In contrast, daily approximations tend to overestimate these trends by 5–10%, with combinations involving minimum relative humidity showing the largest divergences. Globally, up to 15 million km²—particularly in the western United States, southern Africa, and parts of Asia—exhibit significant overestimations. We recommend (i) prioritizing the inclusion of sub-daily meteorological data in future climate model intercomparison projects to enhance FWI accuracy, and (ii) adopting daily mean approximations as the least-biased alternative if noon-specific data are unavailable.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144719572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deriving ozone and PM pollution vertical profiles using lightweight, cost-effective sensors and deep learning","authors":"D. Nissenbaum, R. Sarafian, E. Windwer, E. Tas, C. C. Womack, S. S. Brown, Y. Rudich","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01155-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01155-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We developed and deployed a drone-based air pollution measurement system composed of cost-effective and lightweight sensors. The system generates high-resolution vertical profiles of various pollutants. During campaigns conducted in 2023, we observed a diurnal cycle of ozone and analyzed extreme particulate matter events, including biomass burning and a rapid dust storm. Our analysis reveals consistent ozone depletion near the surface at night, an advection-related “knee” in the ozone vertical profile at ~100 meters, and significant differences in aerosol size distributions between background, biomass burning, and dust events. An ensemble of autoencoder-based deep learning models with prediction heads identified ground data and a novel combined factor as the most predictive variables for the ozone vertical profiles. These findings demonstrate the value of mobile vertical profiling systems for understanding pollutant distributions and tropospheric dynamics, including the distinction between local and regional ozone influences, with potential applications for air quality monitoring.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144712341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhanced shortwave absorption by water vapor increases effective climate sensitivity via accelerated AMOC recovery","authors":"Doseok Lee, Hanjun Kim, Sarah M. Kang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01169-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01169-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate models exhibit substantial inter-model spread in climate sensitivity, typically attributed to uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. In contrast, the influence of clear-sky shortwave absorption (SWA) remains underexplored, despite its substantial uncertainty. Using a single-model framework, we systematically perturb SWA and impose CO₂ quadrupling on distinct mean states that differ in SWA, allowing assessment of its impact on both the mean climate and the CO₂-driven response. Enhanced SWA reduces surface shortwave radiation, leading to Arctic cooling. Under higher SWA, CO₂ forcing drives increased advection of colder Arctic air into the subpolar North Atlantic, enhancing turbulent heat loss and facilitating AMOC recovery. This accelerated recovery amplifies warming in the subpolar North Atlantic, strengthens lapse rate and shortwave cloud feedbacks, and ultimately increases climate sensitivity over time. These findings reveal a previously overlooked pathway by which clear-sky SWA modulates long-term climate feedback, underscoring the need to better constrain SWA in climate models.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144712342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}