Chongyang Zhang, Jiankai Zhang, Amanda C. Maycock, Wenshou Tian
{"title":"Distinct tropospheric anomalies during sudden stratospheric warming events accompanied by strong and weak Ural Ridge","authors":"Chongyang Zhang, Jiankai Zhang, Amanda C. Maycock, Wenshou Tian","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00826-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00826-8","url":null,"abstract":"Different tropospheric precursor anomalies leading to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) may result in different circulation evolution. This study finds that there are distinct differences in tropospheric circulation evolutions during SSWs following anomalously strong- (SUR-SSWs) and weak- (WUR-SSWs) Ural ridge. SUR-SSWs exhibit enhanced East Asian trough in the following week, while enhanced Greenland ridge and negative tropospheric annular mode anomalies can persist for 1 month. In contrast, WUR-SSWs exhibit surface cooling over northern Eurasia without notable tropospheric annular mode anomalies. During SUR-SSWs, waves induced by the enhanced Ural wave source tend to propagate below the tropopause, amplifying the East Asian trough. Additionally, due to decreased wave phase speed, the preexisting Ural ridge anomalies migrate westward and amplify the Greenland ridge. Before WUR-SSWs, preexisting cooling over Northeast Asia migrates westward and amplifies northern Eurasia cooling. Thus, the Ural ridge anomalies prior to SSWs significantly influence post-SSW tropospheric circulation.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00826-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jilan Jiang, Yimin Liu, Jun Meng, Guoxiong Wu, Bian He, Tingting Ma, Wen Bao, Jingfang Fan
{"title":"Dry soil moisture on the Tibetan plateau drives synchronous extreme heatwaves in Europe and East Asia","authors":"Jilan Jiang, Yimin Liu, Jun Meng, Guoxiong Wu, Bian He, Tingting Ma, Wen Bao, Jingfang Fan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00831-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00831-x","url":null,"abstract":"Recently, extreme heatwaves have frequently concurrently swept across Europe and East Asia, causing severe cascading socioeconomic consequences. However, the nonlinear synchronization relationship between these heatwaves and their underlying physical mechanisms remains poorly understood. Utilizing the event synchronization climate network method, atmospheric dynamic diagnostics, and numerical experiments, we revealed robust synchronization between heatwaves over Europe and East Asia, strongly associated with dry soil moisture conditions over the Tibetan Plateau from the preceding winter to summer. Dry soil moisture triggers an equivalent barotropic anticyclone north of the Tibetan Plateau, coinciding with the subtropical westerly jet waveguide and initiating circumglobal atmospheric Rossby waves propagating westward and eastward. Consequently, an equivalent barotropic anticyclone develops over Europe. These anticyclones induce simultaneous heatwaves across Europe and East Asia by increasing downward solar radiation and adiabatic sinking, amplified by positive land-atmosphere feedback. Our findings significantly enhance the understanding and predictive capabilities of these synchronous heatwaves across Eurasia.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00831-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble","authors":"S. Vishnu, William R. Boos, William D. Collins","doi":"10.1038/s41612-023-00502-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-023-00502-3","url":null,"abstract":"Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate models do not accurately simulate LPS. Here, we examine changes in South Asian monsoon LPS simulated by an ensemble of global models, including some with high spatial resolution, that we show skillfully represent LPS. In the ensemble mean, the number of strong LPS (monsoon depressions) decreased over the last 65 years (1950–2014) by about 15% while no trend was detected for weaker LPS (monsoon lows). The reduction in depression counts then moderated, yielding no trend in the periods 1980–2050 or 2015–2050. The ensemble mean projects a shift in genesis from ocean to land and an increase in LPS precipitation of at least 7% K−1, which together contribute to a projected increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00502-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71524214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Davide Faranda, Mireia Ginesta, Tommaso Alberti, Erika Coppola, Marco Anzidei
{"title":"Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy","authors":"Davide Faranda, Mireia Ginesta, Tommaso Alberti, Erika Coppola, Marco Anzidei","doi":"10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0","url":null,"abstract":"We use analogues of atmospheric patterns to investigate changes in four devastating Acqua Alta (flooding) events in the lagoon of Venice associated with intense Mediterranean cyclones occurred in 1966, 2008, 2018 and 2019. Our results provide evidence that changes in atmospheric circulation, although not necessarily only anthropogenically driven, are linked to the severity of these events. We also evaluate the cost and benefit of the MoSE system, which was designed to protect against flooding. Our analysis shows that the MoSE has already provided protection against analogues of the most extreme event, which occurred in 1966. These findings have significant implications for the future of Venice and other coastal cities facing similar challenges from rising sea levels due to extreme events. This study also provides a pathway to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation in a scenario more frequent and intense extreme events if higher global warming levels will be reached.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00513-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71524212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Leveraging global climate models to assess multi-year hydrologic drought","authors":"Michael J. F. Vieira, Tricia A. Stadnyk","doi":"10.1038/s41612-023-00496-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-023-00496-y","url":null,"abstract":"Global climate models (GCMs) offer value for assessments of future water supply and multi-year hydrologic drought. Leveraging GCM data, we develop and analyze global scenarios of mean annual runoff over a span of 640 years. Runoff data from eighteen GCMs are evaluated for skill and bias-adjusted to reflect observations. Unprecedented projections of mean runoff, drought severity, and drought duration are found for 37%, 28%, and 23% of analyzed global land area, respectively, with regions on all continents presenting a risk of a drier future. Conversely, northern latitudes show evidence of increasing runoff, less severe, and shorter-duration droughts. Outside these regions, projections are either indistinguishable from internal climate variability or unreliable due to conflicting signal-to-noise ratios and ensemble agreement. Our analysis contributes to a global gap in understanding future multi-year hydrologic droughts, which can pose significant socio-economic risks.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00496-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71491742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zeming Wu, Chundi Hu, Lifei Lin, Weizhen Chen, Lixuan Huang, Zijian Lin, Song Yang
{"title":"Unraveling the strong covariability of tropical cyclone activity between the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea","authors":"Zeming Wu, Chundi Hu, Lifei Lin, Weizhen Chen, Lixuan Huang, Zijian Lin, Song Yang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-023-00506-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-023-00506-z","url":null,"abstract":"Herein, we report a strong in-phase covariability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity between the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the South China Sea (SCS) during October–December of 1979–2019, and which is also the dominant mode of BOB–SCS TC activity, accounting for 35% of the total variances in TC track density. This inter-basin TC covariance is closely linked to the anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature, appearing as the intrinsic Indo-Pacific Tripole mode, which significantly affects the atmospheric circulations overlying the BOB–SCS. Interestingly, this mechanism works via modulating the local TC genesis frequency in the BOB–SCS. However, in terms of the migrated TCs among them, the Indo-Pacific Tripole mainly regulates their genesis location but not their frequency. More importantly, such inter-basin TC covariability still exists significantly even when the TC track data migrating from the SCS into the BOB are excluded. After all, only 19 TCs during the 41 years (1979–2019) are observed to migrate from the SCS to the BOB, which can only contribute slightly to increasing the covariability of BOB–SCS TC-track activity, but do not play a dominant role. Further, the numerical simulations suggest that although both the Indian and Pacific Oceans contribute to the atmospheric anomalies that affect the BOB–SCS TC activity, the Pacific-effect is twice as important.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00506-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71491745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Recent changes in the climatological characteristics of daily contiguous rain areas over India","authors":"Mansi Bhowmick, Sandeep Sahany, Ananda Kumar Das","doi":"10.1038/s41612-023-00464-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-023-00464-6","url":null,"abstract":"This study documents the climatological feature (1951–1980) and recent changes (1981–2020) in rainfall characteristics considering the observed nearly full spectrum of rain event sizes (daily contiguous rain area (CRA) events) in all seasons over India. It is found that the low frequency very large CRA (~synoptic scale) from monsoon season contributes ~50% of annual rainfall. However, the small-sized CRA (isolated thunderstorms) are the most frequent daily rain events (~70% of annual frequency) and hence are important for rain-fed agricultural practices. The well-documented widespread drying trend in the monsoon season has manifested in the annual rainfall trend but with reduced magnitude illustrating the compensatory effect from other seasons. Spatial aggregated annual statistics show that there is no significant change in rainfall amount and frequency of occurrence of rain events in the recent past compared to the base period. However, seasonally the pre-monsoon rainfall amount has increased significantly. Annually, the number of extremely heavy CRA (EHR) events have significantly increased by ~55% owing to a significant increase in pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall. In all seasons, small-sized extremely heavy CRA has intensified substantially by 50–200% as compared to the base period. Additionally, the rain events from areal category large (~Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC)) have intensified in all seasons except winter. Thus, to decrease the uncertainty in rain-fed agricultural practices and better prediction of EHR to develop effective climate change mitigation strategies; process studies beyond monsoon season and processes other than synoptic scales are also required.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00464-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71491623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"To what extent can the ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau influence the East Asian summer precipitation?","authors":"Lingaona Zhu, Zhiwei Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-023-00508-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-023-00508-x","url":null,"abstract":"The ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau (OVTP) has experienced significant interannual variations during the past decades. Previous studies have primarily focused on the origins of OVTP rather than its climate impact. This study reveals that OVTP during its peak season (May–July) explains up to 15% of the summer precipitation variability in East Asia. The results suggest that the surface temperature (Ts) anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) acts as a link between OVTP and East Asian precipitation. Through the positive land-atmosphere feedback, the Ts anomaly over the TP is amplified. The anomalous Ts pattern persists into summer (June–August) due to the land memory effect and impacts the East Asian precipitation by modulating the local circulation. The Specified-Chemistry version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model is employed to validate that MJJ OVTP results in a substantial increase of Ts over TP and induces an anomalous anti-cyclone centered over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin during summer. Consequently, negative precipitation anomalies are observed in the Yangtze River Basin, while positive precipitation anomalies occur in Southern China. The linear baroclinic model further demonstrates that the diabatic heating over the TP serves as the link between MJJ OVTP and East Asian summer precipitation patterns. Our analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models reveals that a more accurate prediction of East Asian precipitation requires an improved understanding of the relationship between OVTP and TP Ts.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00508-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71491624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Future changes in atmospheric synoptic variability slow down ocean circulation and decrease primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean","authors":"Olaf Duteil, Wonsun Park","doi":"10.1038/s41612-023-00459-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-023-00459-3","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the impact of future changes in atmospheric synoptic variability (ASV) on ocean properties and biogeochemical cycles in the tropical Pacific Ocean using coupled and forced atmosphere–ocean model experiments. Future climate projections show an annual mean decrease in ASV in subtropical gyres and an increase in the tropical band. Maintaining ASV to current values lead to a deepening of the mixed layer in subtropical regions and a shalllowing at the equator associated with a sea surface temperature decrease. The changes in ASV impact the large-scale ocean circulation and the strength of the subtropical and tropical cells, which constrain the equatorial water upwelling and the tropical net primary productivity. Ultimately, this study highlights the significance of ASV in understanding the impacts of climate change on ocean dynamics and biogeochemical processes, as half of the primary productivity decline due to climate change is caused by changes of ASV in the tropical Pacific Ocean.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00459-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45203826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chao Yue, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Ying Qu, Liyun Zhao, John C. Moore
{"title":"Thermosteric and dynamic sea level under solar geoengineering","authors":"Chao Yue, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Ying Qu, Liyun Zhao, John C. Moore","doi":"10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-023-00466-4","url":null,"abstract":"The IPCC sixth assessment report forecasts sea level rise (SLR) of up to 2 m along coasts by 2100 relative to 1995–2014 following business as usual (SSP585) scenarios. Geoengineering may reduce this threat. We use five Earth System Models simulations of two different solar geoengineering methods (solar dimming and stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection), that offset radiative forcing differences between SSP585 “no-mitigation” and the modest mitigation SSP245 greenhouse gas scenarios, to analyze the impact on global mean thermosteric and dynamic regional sea levels. By 2080–2099, both forms of geoengineering reduce global mean thermosteric sea level by 36–41% (11.2–12.6 cm) relative to SSP585, bringing the global mean SLR under SSP585 in line with that under SSP245, but do not perfectly restore regional SLR patterns. Some of the largest reductions (∼18 cm) are on densely populated coasts of eastern Northern America and Japan and along vulnerable Arctic coastal permafrost.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00466-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43387209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}