npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第2页

Real-time ENSO forecast skill evaluated over the last two decades, with focus on the onset of ENSO events

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00845-5

Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Michelle L. L’Heureux, Michael K. Tippett, Andrew W. Robertson, Jeffrey Turmelle

{"title":"Real-time ENSO forecast skill evaluated over the last two decades, with focus on the onset of ENSO events","authors":"Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Michelle L. L’Heureux, Michael K. Tippett, Andrew W. Robertson, Jeffrey Turmelle","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00845-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00845-5","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides an updated assessment of the “International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s (IRI) El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Predictions Plume”. We evaluate 253 real-time forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index issued from February 2002 to February 2023 and examine multimodal means of dynamical (DYN) and statistical (STAT) models separately. Forecast skill diminishes as lead time increases in both DYN and STAT forecasts, with peak accuracy occurring post-northern hemisphere spring predictability barrier and preceding seasons. The DYN forecasts outperform STAT forecasts with a pronounced advantage in forecasts initiated from late boreal winter through spring. The analysis uncovers an asymmetry in predicting the onset of cold and warm ENSO episodes, with warm episode onsets being better forecasted than cold onsets in both DYN and STAT models. The DYN forecasts are found to be valuable for predicting warm and cold ENSO episode onsets at least several months in advance, while STAT forecasts are less informative about ENSO phase transitions. The results indicate that predicting ENSO onset is challenging and that the ability to do so is both model- and event-dependent.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00845-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Storm Daniel fueled by anomalously high sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00872-2

D. Argüeso, M. Marcos, A. Amores

引用次数: 0

A novel spatiotemporal prediction approach to fill air pollution data gaps using mobile sensors, machine learning and citizen science techniques

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00859-z

Arunik Baruah, Dimitrios Bousiotis, Seny Damayanti, Alessandro Bigi, Grazia Ghermandi, O. Ghaffarpasand, Roy M. Harrison, Francis D. Pope

{"title":"A novel spatiotemporal prediction approach to fill air pollution data gaps using mobile sensors, machine learning and citizen science techniques","authors":"Arunik Baruah, Dimitrios Bousiotis, Seny Damayanti, Alessandro Bigi, Grazia Ghermandi, O. Ghaffarpasand, Roy M. Harrison, Francis D. Pope","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00859-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00859-z","url":null,"abstract":"Particulate Matter (PM) air pollution poses significant threats to public health. We introduce a novel machine learning methodology to predict PM2.5 levels at 30 m long segments along the roads and at a temporal scale of 10 seconds. A hybrid dataset was curated from an intensive PM campaign in Selly Oak, Birmingham, UK, utilizing citizen scientists and low-cost instruments strategically placed in static and mobile settings. Spatially resolved proxy variables, meteorological parameters, and PM properties were integrated, enabling a fine-grained analysis of PM2.5. Calibration involved three approaches: Standard Random Forest Regression, Sensor Transferability and Road Transferability Evaluations. This methodology significantly increased spatial resolution beyond what is possible with regulatory monitoring, thereby improving exposure assessments. The findings underscore the importance of machine learning approaches and citizen science in advancing our understanding of PM pollution, with a small number of participants significantly enhancing local air quality assessment for thousands of residents.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00859-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Deciphering chaos in the Madden-Julian oscillation 解读马登-朱利安振荡中的混沌现象

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00870-4

Guosen Chen

{"title":"Deciphering chaos in the Madden-Julian oscillation","authors":"Guosen Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00870-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00870-4","url":null,"abstract":"The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), having far-reaching impact on Earth’s climate and human society, is an important tropical phenomenon characterized by a typical 30–90-day period in phase evolution. The MJO was hardly being connected to chaos, which is featured with aperiodicity. However, unlike the quasi-periodic phase evolution, the event-to-event changes of MJO, to some extent represented by its amplitude evolution, is irregular. By presenting multiple evidence, we demonstrate that the MJO’s amplitude evolution is deterministically chaotic. Combining eigen-time-delay embedding and Koopman operator into a regression model, we further reveal the cause of chaos through a data-drive approach. We show that the dynamics of MJO amplitude can be decomposed into multiple periodic obits and nonlinear interaction between them. The aperiodic motion resulted from these nonlinear interactions disturbs the periodic obits asynchronously, leading to chaotic evolution of MJO amplitude. The findings here unveil the strong nonlinear nature of the MJO, explaining the difficulties in the long-term MJO prediction and providing new insight into MJO’s complexity.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00870-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring causes of distinct regional and subseasonal Indian summer monsoon precipitation responses to CO2 removal

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00858-0

Seungmok Paik, Daehyun Kim, Soon-Il An, Hyoeun Oh, Jongsoo Shin, Bidyut Bikash Goswami, Seung-Ki Min, Sanjit Kumar Mondal

{"title":"Exploring causes of distinct regional and subseasonal Indian summer monsoon precipitation responses to CO2 removal","authors":"Seungmok Paik, Daehyun Kim, Soon-Il An, Hyoeun Oh, Jongsoo Shin, Bidyut Bikash Goswami, Seung-Ki Min, Sanjit Kumar Mondal","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00858-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00858-0","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the response of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation to CO2 removal, with a specific focus on regional and subseasonal variations. Following CO2 removal, monsoon circulation weakens throughout the summer owing to the reduced large-scale meridional temperature gradient around India. Weakened monsoon circulation decreases the local-scale thermodynamic stability within India, following monsoon-onset periods. While the frequency of synoptic-scale ISM low-pressure systems (LPSs) decreases overall, the lower thermodynamic stability causes the LPSs to form and resultantly shift west and south from their typical paths, last longer and move more quickly zonally during August and September. Changes in these rain-producing processes induce distinct regional (Western Ghats, south-central-east India, and Tamil Nadu) and subseasonal precipitation responses. Also, extreme precipitation exhibits similar patterns, but is more strongly affected by changes in LPS. Our results suggest that reliable future projections of regional hydroclimate change require a more accurate understanding of multi-scale precipitation processes.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00858-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing predictive attribution in NMME forecasts of summer precipitation in eastern china using deep learning

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00835-7

Xuan Tong, Wen Zhou

引用次数: 0

Irreversibility of winter precipitation over the Northeastern Pacific and Western North America against CO2 forcing

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00864-2

Zhenhao Xu, Yu Kosaka, Masaki Toda, Tomoki Iwakiri, Gang Huang, Fei Ji, Ayumu Miyamoto, Weichen Tao

{"title":"Irreversibility of winter precipitation over the Northeastern Pacific and Western North America against CO2 forcing","authors":"Zhenhao Xu, Yu Kosaka, Masaki Toda, Tomoki Iwakiri, Gang Huang, Fei Ji, Ayumu Miyamoto, Weichen Tao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00864-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00864-2","url":null,"abstract":"Comprehending the resilience of regional hydroclimate in response to CO2 removal is essential for guiding future mitigation and adaptation strategies. Using an ensemble of model simulations forced by idealized CO2 ramp-up followed by ramp-down, here we show that the winter precipitation over the Northeastern Pacific and Western North America (NPWNA) is irreversible even if global warming is reversed back to 2 °C level. This asymmetric change features a tripolar pattern and is tied to Aleutian Low intensification, which is driven by both zonal and meridional gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific. Distinct from the zonal SST gradient—explained by different timescales of surface and subsurface warming and ocean dynamical processes, amplified through the Bjerknes feedback—the meridional SST gradient originates from the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, maintained by the wind-evaporation-SST feedback. Our findings suggest that the regional hydrological risks over the NPWNA induced by CO2 ramp-up cannot be fully eliminated by CO2 removal even if the global warming level is restored back.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00864-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Aerosol forces mesoscale secondary circulations occurrence: evidence of emission reduction

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00868-y

Jixiang Li, Haipeng Yu, Markku Kulmala, Tom V. Kokkonen, Kai Tang, Jianmin Ma, Zeyong Hu, Siyu Chen, Yuling Hu, Rong Dai, Bofei Zhang, Hongyu Luo, Shu Tao

{"title":"Aerosol forces mesoscale secondary circulations occurrence: evidence of emission reduction","authors":"Jixiang Li, Haipeng Yu, Markku Kulmala, Tom V. Kokkonen, Kai Tang, Jianmin Ma, Zeyong Hu, Siyu Chen, Yuling Hu, Rong Dai, Bofei Zhang, Hongyu Luo, Shu Tao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00868-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00868-y","url":null,"abstract":"Here, we present modeling evidence of the influences of aerosol feedback on secondary circulations (SCs). The results show that in heavily PM2.5 polluted Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) areas, the aerosol feedback is the primary factor on the occurrence and development of mesoscale SCs in the atmospheric boundary layer. Modeling evidence reveal that the impact of aerosol feedback on SCs is proportional to PM2.5 concentrations or precursor emissions. During the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) with extraordinary emission reduction, the time levels of SCs significantly decreases to ~37.3% of the periods without emission reduction before and after APEC period. The simulated PM2.5 during APEC are ~47.6% of before and after APEC period, and the measured concentration ratio at 47.7%. The largest variation in SC occurred during the afternoon, which should be related to the stronger solar radiation. We found that the reduction in wind speed caused by aerosol feedback and related convergence and divergence of the air mass play a pivotal role in SCs evolution. Against the background of prevailing westerly winds in BTH, the strengthening and appearance of clockwise SCs caused by aerosol feedback leads to an increase in the frequency of surface easterly U-wind. These phenomena have also been validated in two other emission reduction events and the emission reduction actions in the BTH region in January and July of 2014, 2017, and 2020, respectively. The results of this paper showing substantial impact of aerosol feedback on SCs, which could help promote our understanding of content and level of aerosol feedback to atmospheric changes.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00868-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Contribution of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions to changes in summer upper-tropospheric thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific 人为气溶胶和温室气体排放对亚洲和北太平洋夏季高层对流层热对比变化的影响

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00865-1

Peilin Li, Botao Zhou, Dapeng Zhang, Wenxin Xie, Zhicong Yin, Yanyan Huang, Bo Sun, Qiaohong Sun

{"title":"Contribution of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions to changes in summer upper-tropospheric thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific","authors":"Peilin Li, Botao Zhou, Dapeng Zhang, Wenxin Xie, Zhicong Yin, Yanyan Huang, Bo Sun, Qiaohong Sun","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00865-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00865-1","url":null,"abstract":"Change of zonal thermal contrast in the upper troposphere (ZTUT) between Asia and the North Pacific is a highly concerned issue, as it profoundly influences the Northern hemispheric climate. However, the physical reasons, particularly the anthropogenic influences on the ZTUT change are not well understood. Here, we show that increased aerosols and greenhouse gases tend to weaken the summer Asian-Pacific ZTUT, through affecting radiation processes over the Tibetan Plateau and altering moist enthalpy advections over the North Pacific, respectively. Under the present climate, aerosol variations play a leading role in the trend change of summer ZTUT from a deceasing to an increasing pattern in the mid-1980s. These decreasing and increasing trends are, respectively, enhanced and attenuated by greenhouse gas emissions. Toward the end of this century under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, continuous increases in greenhouse gases are expected to become the dominant contributor for projected weakening of summer ZTUT, with the rate offset by decreases in aerosols.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00865-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rapid increase in spring ozone in the Pearl River Delta, China during 2013-2022

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00847-3

Tianhui Cao, Haichao Wang, Xiaorui Chen, Lei Li, Xiao Lu, Keding Lu, Shaojia Fan

{"title":"Rapid increase in spring ozone in the Pearl River Delta, China during 2013-2022","authors":"Tianhui Cao, Haichao Wang, Xiaorui Chen, Lei Li, Xiao Lu, Keding Lu, Shaojia Fan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00847-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00847-3","url":null,"abstract":"Surface ozone pollution is a severe air pollution problem and typically occurs in the warm season since it is driven by photochemistry. Recent studies showed a tendency for ozone pollution to spread into the cold season. Yet, less attention was paid to its evolution and causes. Here, we show general uptrends in surface ozone of 1.15 ppbv a−1 during the spring (March to May) over the past decade (2013–2022) in the Pearl River Delta, China. The meteorological shift, primarily the increase in northerly airflow at the 850hPa level and the rise in net surface solar radiation flux (SSR), accounted for 77% of the ozone growth, as determined by the multiple linear regression model. The change in three meteorological factors, namely SSR, U10, and V850, especially in the stagnant weather conditions, are critical in driving spring ozone increase, and their relative importance differs between inland and coastal regions. These results show that the meteorological-induced springtime ozone pollution warrants vigilance, as spring ozone pollution control in climate-sensitive areas, will be more challenging towards climate change.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00847-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0