npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第2页

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Winter 北方冬季大气河流的亚季节到季节（S2S）预测

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00827-7

Wei Zhang, Baoqiang Xiang, Kai-Chih Tseng, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Lucas Harris, Tom Delworth, Ben Kirtman

{"title":"Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Winter","authors":"Wei Zhang, Baoqiang Xiang, Kai-Chih Tseng, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Lucas Harris, Tom Delworth, Ben Kirtman","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00827-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00827-7","url":null,"abstract":"Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are characterized by intense lower tropospheric plumes of moisture transport that are frequently responsible for midlatitude wind and precipitation extremes. The prediction of ARs at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales is currently at a low level of skill, reflecting a need to improve our understanding of their underlying sources of predictability. Based on 20 year hindcast experiments from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s SPEAR S2S forecast system, we evaluate the S2S prediction skill of AR activities in the northern winter. Higher forecast skill is detected for high-frequency AR activities (3–7 days/week) compared to low-frequency AR activities (1–2 days/week), even though the occurrence rate of high-frequency ARs exceeds that of low-frequency ARs. For the first time, we have applied the Average Predictability Time technique to the SPEAR system to identify the three most predictable modes of AR in the North Pacific sector. These modes can be attributed to the influences of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Arctic Oscillation. S2S AR forecast skill in western United States is modulated by various phases of large-scale variability. This study highlights potential windows of opportunity for operational S2S AR forecasting.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00827-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142594924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Underestimated role of sea surface temperature in sea spray aerosol formation and climate effects 低估海面温度在海雾气溶胶形成和气候效应中的作用

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00823-x

Jie Hu, Jianlong Li, Narcisse Tsona Tchinda, Yaru Song, Minglan Xu, Kun Li, Lin Du

{"title":"Underestimated role of sea surface temperature in sea spray aerosol formation and climate effects","authors":"Jie Hu, Jianlong Li, Narcisse Tsona Tchinda, Yaru Song, Minglan Xu, Kun Li, Lin Du","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00823-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00823-x","url":null,"abstract":"The uncertainty regarding the correlation between sea spray aerosol (SSA) formation and sea surface temperature (SST) hinders the accurate estimation of SSA’s impact on global climate. Here, we developed a temperature-controlled plunging SSA simulation tank to investigate the impact of SST on SSA formation from two perspectives: SSA particle size distribution and organic enrichment. Our findings show that SSA particle size decreases with decreasing SST, as exhibited by an increase in SSA within Aitken mode and a decrease in SSA within accumulation and coarse modes. SST can significantly enhance organic enrichment in SSA particles, while the multiplicative increases vary from 2 to 10 times depending on the organic matter species and the SSA particle size. Based on our experimental results, it is predicted that SST reduction may lead to a significantly higher contribution of Aitken modal SSA-derived CCN in cold waters (0 °C) than in warm waters (30 °C). Additionally, we incorporate SST for the first time in estimating the global flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) emitted via SSA, yielding a value ranging from 23.45 to 55.78 Tg C yr−1. Compared to previous works, our study reveals the crucial role of SST in influencing both cloud formation and the atmospheric organic burden of SSA.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00823-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142594658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines 通过内部变异故事情节评估北欧近期人为变暖和湿润的调节作用

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00759-2

Aurélien Liné, Christophe Cassou, Rym Msadek, Sylvie Parey

{"title":"Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines","authors":"Aurélien Liné, Christophe Cassou, Rym Msadek, Sylvie Parey","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00759-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00759-2","url":null,"abstract":"Internal variability arising from the inherently chaotic nature of the climate system has amplified or obscured human-caused changes, especially at regional scales in the extratropics, where its contribution to climate variability is the largest. It is virtually certain that this will continue in the near-term. We here focus on the Northern Europe region, whose variability is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) through remote dynamical and thermodynamic processes, and introduce the concept of internal variability storylines (IVS) to explore, understand, and quantify the role of the two combined drivers of internal variability in the modulation of the anthropogenic warming by 2040 in winter. Based on a large ensemble of historical-scenario simulations, we show that the high-impact IVS, characterised by weak AMOC decline and a decadal shift of the NAO toward dominant positive phase, leads faster to warmer-wetter conditions independently of actual and future greenhouse gases emissions. By contrast, amplified AMOC reduction and more recurrent negative NAO can considerably damp both warming and wettening at near-term. In the latter IVS, we provide evidence that winter-severe conditions similar to those in 2010, that had been responsible for widespread socio-economic disruptions, remain almost as likely to occur by 2040. Reframing the uncertain climate outcomes into the physical science space in a conditional form through the prism of IVS makes climate information relevant for accurate risk assessments and adaptation planning.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00759-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Non-fatal Injury burden attributed to night-time temperature during 1990s-2010s in China 20 世纪 90 年代至 2010 年代中国夜间温度导致的非致命性伤害负担

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00825-9

Jianxiong Hu, Yuliang Er, Xiao Deng, Tao Liu, Fangfang Zeng, Pengpeng Ye, Guanhao He, Qijiong Zhu, Ye Jin, Sujuan Chen, Cuirong Ji, Ziqiang Lin, Fengrui Jing, Leilei Duan, Yuan Wang, Wenjun Ma

{"title":"Non-fatal Injury burden attributed to night-time temperature during 1990s-2010s in China","authors":"Jianxiong Hu, Yuliang Er, Xiao Deng, Tao Liu, Fangfang Zeng, Pengpeng Ye, Guanhao He, Qijiong Zhu, Ye Jin, Sujuan Chen, Cuirong Ji, Ziqiang Lin, Fengrui Jing, Leilei Duan, Yuan Wang, Wenjun Ma","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00825-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00825-9","url":null,"abstract":"The night-time temperature-related injury risks and burdens were unclear. Using 11,512,467 non-fatal injury cases in 243 surveillance hospitals across China from 2006-2021, we estimated the associations between daytime or night-time temperature and injury by a time-stratified case-crossover study, and compared their injury burden during 1990s–2010s. We found the excess risk (ER) for per 1°C rise in night-time temperature (ER = 1.21%, 95%CI:1.03%,1.39%) was greater than that in daytime (ER = 0.86%, 95%CI:0.72%,1.00%). Compared with the 1980s, the attributable fractions (AFs) for daytime and night-time temperature change during the 1990s–2010s were 0.59% (95%eCI:0.54%,0.67%) and 0.73% (95%eCI:0.69%,0.77%), respectively. Spatially, the higher AFs of night-time temperature were more widely distributed than daytime temperature. The non-fatal injury risk attributed to night-time temperature was stronger than daytime temperature, and increased night-time temperatures posed a heavier injury burden compared with daytime temperature in China. Our findings indicate that high night-time temperature is an important injury risk in the context of climate change.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00825-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A reconstructed PDO history from an ice core isotope record on the central Tibetan Plateau 从青藏高原中部的冰芯同位素记录重建 PDO 历史

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00814-y

Shijie Li, Lide Tian, Zhongyin Cai, Di Wang, Lili Shao, Xiaoyi Yang, Shangjie Wang, Feng Liu, Pengbin Liang

{"title":"A reconstructed PDO history from an ice core isotope record on the central Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Shijie Li, Lide Tian, Zhongyin Cai, Di Wang, Lili Shao, Xiaoyi Yang, Shangjie Wang, Feng Liu, Pengbin Liang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00814-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00814-y","url":null,"abstract":"Ice core oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from low-latitude regions preserve high-resolution climate records in the past, yet the interpretation of these ice core δ18O records is still facing difficulty due to the uncertainty of ice core dating. Here we present a new established δ18O time series from Qiangtang (QT) No. 1 ice core retrieved from the central Tibetan Plateau. Due to the vague seasonal signals in the QT ice core, we investigated the spectral properties of δ18O record with depth and discussed the implications of significant spectral power peaks in the QT ice core. We employed a variational mode decomposition (VMD) analysis for the upper part of the QT ice core to decompose the δ18O depth series in order to separate the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, a signal strongly preserved in the QT ice core δ18O record. With this approach, we established a time series of 335 years (1677–2011 CE) for the upper 50 m of the QT ice core. Subsequently, we examined the frequency of the new established δ18O time series and detected strong signals of the bidecadal and multidecadal modes of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO consists of two modes with periods of approximately 25–35 years and 50–70 years, and we found that the 50–70 years periodicity has persisted since 1700 CE, succeeded by dominance of the 25–75 years periodicity after 1900 CE. Additionally, we analyzed the δ18O series of the QT ice core during the past century and determined that the increasing frequency of El Niño events is an important factor contributing to the increase in recent ice core δ18O.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00814-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Projecting dry-wet abrupt alternation across China from the perspective of soil moisture 从土壤水分角度预测中国各地的干湿急剧交替现象

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00808-w

Jianxiu Qiu, Chenxi He, Xiaoping Liu, Lun Gao, Chao Tan, Xinghan Wang, Dongdong Kong, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Deliang Chen, Jun Xia

{"title":"Projecting dry-wet abrupt alternation across China from the perspective of soil moisture","authors":"Jianxiu Qiu, Chenxi He, Xiaoping Liu, Lun Gao, Chao Tan, Xinghan Wang, Dongdong Kong, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Deliang Chen, Jun Xia","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00808-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00808-w","url":null,"abstract":"Under a warmer climate, the enhancement of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) risk poses a great challenge for sustainable development. Here, we introduce a novel framework for DWAA detection based on our proposed soil moisture concentration index. By the end of this century, over humid southern China, the shift of soil moisture time series from anomalously wet to anomalously dry pattern, or the other way around, will be more abrupt. In addition, the proposed framework driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations projects more widespread DWAA-affected areas over southwestern China, coastal regions of southeastern China, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially under a high emission scenario. The framework proposed in this study provides an efficient system for DWAA detection and prediction, and the findings of this study provide a reference for upgrading hydraulic infrastructure and mitigating future DWAA events.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00808-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Attribution of summer 2022 extreme wildfire season in Southwest France to anthropogenic climate change 法国西南部 2022 年夏季极端野火季节与人为气候变化的关系

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00821-z

Marine Lanet, Laurent Li, Antoine Ehret, Solène Turquety, Hervé Le Treut

引用次数: 0

Improving PM10 sensor accuracy in urban areas through calibration in Timișoara 在蒂米什瓦拉通过校准提高城市地区 PM10 传感器的准确性

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00812-0

Robert Blaga, Sneha Gautam

{"title":"Improving PM10 sensor accuracy in urban areas through calibration in Timișoara","authors":"Robert Blaga, Sneha Gautam","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00812-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00812-0","url":null,"abstract":"Low-cost particulate matter sensors (LCS) are vital for improving the spatial and temporal resolution of air quality data, supplementing sparsely placed official monitoring stations. Despite their benefits, LCS readings can be biased due to the physical properties of aerosol particles and device limitations. An optimization model is essential to enhance LCS data accuracy. This paper presents a calibration study of the LCS network of Timișoara, Romania. The calibration began by selecting LCS devices near National Air Quality Monitoring Network (NAQMN) stations and developing parametric models, choosing the best for broader application. Plantower, Sensirion, and Honeywell sensors showed comparable accuracy. Calibration involved clusters within a 750 m radius around NAQMN stations. Models incorporating RH corrections and multiple linear regression (MLR) were fitted. The best model was validated against data from unseen sensors, leading to mean bias errors (MBE) within 9-17% and RMSEs of 33-35%, within sensor uncertainty margins. Applied to the city-wide LCS network, the model identified several stations regularly exceeding the EU daily PM10 threshold, unnoticed by NAQMN stations due to their limited coverage. The study highlights the necessity of granular monitoring to accurately capture urban air quality variations.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00812-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Increasing Arctic dust suppresses the reduction of ice nucleation in the Arctic lower troposphere by warming 北极尘埃的增加抑制了北极对流层下部因气候变暖而减少的冰核形成

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00811-1

Hitoshi Matsui, Kei Kawai, Yutaka Tobo, Yoshinori Iizuka, Sumito Matoba

引用次数: 0

Indian summer monsoon’s role in shaping variability in Arctic sea ice 印度夏季季风对北极海冰变化的影响

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00819-7

Jiawei Zhu, Zhiwei Wu

{"title":"Indian summer monsoon’s role in shaping variability in Arctic sea ice","authors":"Jiawei Zhu, Zhiwei Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00819-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00819-7","url":null,"abstract":"The impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on summertime weather in the Northern Hemisphere have garnered considerable attention. Despite the extensive focus on this relationship, the influence of tropical systems on Arctic regions has been relatively underexplored, with only a limited number of existing studies concentrating exclusively on either dynamic or thermodynamic effects. This study aims to address this gap by examining a barotropic anomalous circulation over the Arctic region associated with Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall. The observed anomalous circulation exhibits a distinct zonally dipole pattern, characterized by anomalous high pressure over Northern Canada and Asia, coupled with anomalous low pressure located east of Greenland. Verification through model experiments demonstrates that the diabatic heating of ISM rainfall contribute to the formation of the observed ISM-related circulation. The modulation of surface clear sky downwelling longwave radiation ( $${{DLR}}_{{clear; sky}}$$ ) by the circulation anomalies over the Arctic modified surface thermal conditions, thereby influencing subsequent variations in sea ice thickness and concentration. Under anomalous high pressure, $${{DLR}}_{{clear; sky}}$$ increases, leading to a decline in sea ice thickness, and vice versa. Additionally, from a dynamic standpoint, low-level wind-driven sea ice drift helps shape the spatial distribution and extent of sea ice cover. Besides, the impacts of ISM on Arctic sea ice are largely independent of contemporary ENSO. These findings present fresh perspectives on the role of extrapolar phenomena, such as the ISM, in driving variability in Arctic sea ice during the summer months. This enhanced comprehension holds promise for enhancing predictions of changes in summertime Arctic sea ice extent.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00819-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0