npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

{"title":"Potential tropical cyclone movement and intensification factors imaged by spaceborne SAR","authors":"Guosheng Zhang, Xiaofeng Li, Pakwai Chan, Hui Su","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01162-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01162-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is a microwave sensor that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) with high spatial resolution. Based on three idealized TC parametric wind models, we provide a comprehensive perspective on TC studies using SAR observations, including surface winds, morphology, eye shape, asymmetry, inflow angle, steering flow, secondary eyewalls, vortex Rossby waves, spatial rain bands, and other small-scale dynamics, contributing to a better understanding of TC movement and intensification.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Complex gas-particle partitioning of nitro-phenolic compounds: field-based insights and determination of apparent activity coefficient","authors":"Yi Chen, Men Xia, Penggang Zheng, Yumin Li, Zhouxing Zou, Shengrui Tong, Kun Li, Xin Feng, Lirong Hui, Qi Yuan, Jinjian Li, Jian Zhen Yu, Shuncheng Lee, Tao Wang, Zhe Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01156-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01156-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Gas–particle partitioning (GPP) of oxygenated semi–volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) is crucial for atmospheric organic aerosol formation, yet large uncertainties persist in its simulation due to challenges in obtaining accurate parameters. This study focuses on nitro–phenolic species (NPs), representative oxygenated SVOCs impacting solar radiative balance and atmospheric chemistry. Concurrent measurements of gaseous and particulate NPs at a subtropical coastal site showed particulate fractions ranging from 8.6% to 53%, which deviated from traditional theoretical estimates by factors of 0.26 to 10⁴. To address these discrepancies, a field-based activity coefficient (<i>ζ</i>) was derived by integrating measured parameters and theoretical considerations. Incorporating <i>ζ</i> into a box model significantly improved simulations for mono–NPs and uncovered a more complex GPP process for di–NPs than previously recognized. The successful application of <i>ζ</i> in a regional model highlights its broader applicability and calls for more quantitative studies for various SVOCs.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"149 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Continuous gap-filled atmospheric N2O record for the past 800,000 years using machine learning techniques","authors":"Nasrin Salehnia, Eunji Byun, Jinho Ahn, Kajal Kumari","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01153-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01153-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ice cores are crucial archives of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Despite the importance of nitrous oxide (N₂O) as a GHG, existing ice core records contain gaps, particularly during glacial periods, due to the high dust content in ice samples that may cause in situ chemical or biological reactions, increasing N₂O concentration. By developing an iterative process that applies machine learning (ML) models to existing data on CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O from Antarctic ice cores, we simulated a continuous time series of atmospheric N₂O concentrations for the past 800,000 years (kyr). The continuous N₂O record allows us to investigate long-term variability and potential climate feedback that would otherwise remain obscured, as spectral analysis of this record has revealed significant N₂O periodicities of ~100, 41, and 23 kyr. While ML-based simulations cannot fully replace real, artifact-free measurements, they provide a valuable complementary approach to interpreting past climate dynamics, especially when empirical data are limited or compromised.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144594907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CO2-induced climate change assessment for the extreme 2022 Pakistan rainfall using seasonal forecasts","authors":"Antje Weisheimer, Tim N. Palmer, Nicholas J. Leach, Myles R. Allen, Christopher D. Roberts, Muhammad Adnan Abid","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01136-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01136-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While it is widely believed that the intense rainfall in summer 2022 over Pakistan was substantially exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change^1,2, climate models struggled to confirm this^3,4. Using a high-resolution operational seasonal forecasting system that successfully predicted the extreme wet conditions, we perform counterfactual experiments simulating pre-industrial and future conditions. Both experiments also exhibit strong anomalous rainfall, indicating a limited role of CO₂-induced forcing. We attribute 10% of the total rainfall to historical increases in CO₂ and ocean temperature. However, further increases in the future suggest a weak mean precipitation reduction but with increased variability. By decomposing rainfall and large-scale circulation into CO₂ and SST-related signals, we illustrate a tendency for these signals to compensate each other in future scenarios. This suggests that historical CO₂ impacts may not reliably predict future responses. Accurately capturing local dynamics is therefore essential for regional climate adaptation planning and for informing loss and damage discussions.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144594805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toward long-range ENSO prediction with an explainable deep learning model","authors":"Qi Chen, Yinghao Cui, Guobin Hong, Karumuri Ashok, Yuchun Pu, Xiaogu Zheng, Xuanze Zhang, Wei Zhong, Peng Zhan, Zhonglei Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01159-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01159-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Its evolution is governed by intricate air-sea interactions, posing significant challenges for long-term prediction. In this study, we introduce CTEFNet, a multivariate deep learning model that synergizes convolutional neural networks and transformers to enhance ENSO forecasting. By integrating multiple oceanic and atmospheric predictors, CTEFNet extends the effective forecast lead time to 20 months while mitigating the impact of the spring predictability barrier, outperforming both dynamical models and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. Furthermore, CTEFNet offers physically meaningful and statistically significant insights through gradient-based sensitivity analysis, revealing the key precursor signals that govern ENSO dynamics, which align with well-established theories and reveal new insights about inter-basin interactions among the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. The CTEFNet’s superior predictive skill and interpretable sensitivity assessments underscore its potential for advancing climate prediction. Our findings highlight the importance of multivariate coupling in ENSO evolution and demonstrate the promise of deep learning in capturing complex climate dynamics with enhanced interpretability.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unravelling drivers of the future Mediterranean precipitation paradox during cyclones","authors":"Marco Chericoni, Giorgia Fosser, Emmanouil Flaounas, Marco Gaetani, Alessandro Anav","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01121-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01121-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Both global climate models and a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled regional climate model project a drying trend across the Mediterranean region, alongside an increase in cyclone-related precipitation. However, only the high-resolution model captures the physical mechanisms driving these changes across three emission scenarios, namely, enhanced moisture transport processes fuelling cyclone activity. These results highlight the added value of fine-scale modelling for understanding future Mediterranean hydroclimatic extremes.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144594909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Types of regional and localised new aerosol particle formation and growth processes: Atmospheric Banana Atlas","authors":"Imre Salma, Tamás Weidinger, János Rohonczy, Máté Vörösmarty","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01149-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01149-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The structure and variability of atmospheric new particle formation and particle diameter growth (NPF&amp;G) processes provide valuable insights into the underlying chemical, physical and meteorological mechanisms including atmospheric mixing and transport-related effects. Therefore, we systematically categorised and characterised the NPF&amp;G events observed over 13 years in an urban environment. Six regional-scale banana plot types with narrow onset, broad onset, arch shape, double onset, tandem growth and nocturnal occurrence were identified. Additionally, two localised types were defined: one exhibiting multiple, but underdeveloped banana shapes, and another with diverse angulate structures, both being limited in time. The localised processes typically occurred on 7% of days, and produced high (up to 60 × 10³ cm⁻³) ultrafine particle number concentrations. Regional and localised processes can also happen on the same day. Our findings highlight the need to extend current NPF&amp;G identification and classification frameworks by incorporating an additional step to distinguish localised events from regional processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144594786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How key features of early development shape deep convective systems","authors":"Sophie Abramian, Caroline Muller, Camille Risi, Thomas Fiolleau, Rémy Roca","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01154-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Deep Convective Systems (DCSs) reaching scales of 100–1000 km play a pivotal role as the primary precipitation source in the tropics. Those systems can have large cloud shields, and thus not only affect severe precipitation patterns but also play a crucial part in modulating the tropical radiation budget. Understanding the complex factors that control how these systems grow and how they will behave in a warming climate remain fundamental challenges. Research efforts have been directed, on one hand, towards understanding the environmental control on these systems, and on the other hand, towards exploring the internal potential of systems to develop and self-aggregate in idealized simulations. However, we still lack understanding on the relative role of the environment and internal feedbacks on DCS mature size and why. The novel high-resolution global SAM simulation from the DYAMOND project, combined with the TOOCAN Lagrangian tracking of DCSs and machine learning tools, offers an unprecedented opportunity to explore this question. We find that a system’s growth rate during the first 2 h of development predicts its final size with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.65. Beyond this period, growth rate emerges as the strongest predictor. However, in the early stages, additional factors–such as ice water path heterogeneity, migration distance, interactions with neighboring systems, and deep shear–play a more significant role. Our study quantitatively assesses the relative influence of internal versus external factors on the mature cloud shield size. Our results show that system-intrinsic properties exert a stronger influence than environmental conditions, suggesting that the initial environment does not strictly constrain final system size, particularly for larger systems where internal dynamics dominate.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"150 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144578275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Source apportionment of PM10 based on offline chemical speciation data at 24 European sites","authors":"Xiansheng Liu, Xun Zhang, Bowen Jin, Tao Wang, Siyuan Qian, Jin Zou, Vy Ngoc Thuy Dinh, Jean-Luc Jaffrezo, Gaëlle Uzu, Pamela Dominutti, Sophie Darfeuil, Olivier Favez, Sébastien Conil, Nicolas Marchand, Sonia Castillo, Jesús D. de la Rosa, Stuart Grange, Christoph Hueglin, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Evangelia Diapouli, Manousos-Ioannis Manousakas, Maria Gini, Silvia Nava, Giulia Calzolai, Célia Alves, Marta Monge, Cristina Reche, Roy M. Harrison, Philip K. Hopke, Andrés Alastuey, Xavier Querol","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01097-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01097-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study applied Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) to PM₁₀ speciation datasets from 24 urban sites across six European countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland) to perform a detailed source apportionment (SA) analysis. By using a consistent source apportionment tool for all datasets, the study enhances the comparability of PM₁₀ SA results across urban Europe. The results identified seven major PM₁₀ sources including road traffic, biomass burning, crustal/mineral sources, secondary aerosols, industrial emissions, sea salt, and heavy oil combustion (HOC). Road traffic emerged as the predominant source of PM₁₀ in urban areas, with contributions varying by location, but representing as much as 41% in high-traffic zones. Biomass burning was detected at 23 sites, contributing 8% to 41% on yearly averages, with substantial increase in winter. Crustal sources were present at all sites (3–33%). Industrial sources contributed relatively less PM₁₀ mass, which was identified at 10 sites with contributions ranging from 2% to 14%. Secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, consisting primarily of ammonium nitrates and sulfates, and organic matter, formed a portion of the PM₁₀ mass (5–41%). These secondary factors are primarily influenced by anthropogenic emissions, including the various combustion processes. Sea salt, predominantly found in coastal areas, contributed between 4% and 21%, reflecting the impact of the marine environments on air quality. This source was very often ‘aged’ (mixed with anthropogenic pollutants from different origins). Additionally, HOC, especially emits from shipping activities, and traced by V and Ni, was also a frequent contributing source (2–15% for 9 sites), indicating a need for more stringent emission controls. The chemical comparison is performed which indicates road traffic and secondary aerosols, showed consistent chemical profiles across sites, while industrial, HOC, and crustal sources displayed significant site-specific variability. These findings underscore the need for tailored air quality strategies according to local sources of emissions and the importance of long-term PM speciation monitoring for effective pollution control.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144566379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Largely underestimated production of isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) through high-NO oxidation pathways in urban areas","authors":"Sainan Wang, Mike J. Newland, Andrew R. Rickard, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Thomas J. Bannan, Archit Mehra, Carl J. Percival, Freya A. Squires, Weiwei Hu, Wei Song, Yang Chen, Xiaoling Zhang, Liming Wang, Xinming Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01151-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01151-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Isoprene is the dominant nonmethane volatile organic compound (VOC) emitted into the atmosphere globally, with important atmospheric chemistry impacts on air quality and climate. One crucial intermediate in its gas-phase oxidation is isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX), which contributes significantly to the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOA). It is generally accepted that IEPOX is efficiently formed in remote forested regions with a sufficiently low NO/HO₂ ratio. Here, we show that the oxidation of isoprene hydroxynitrates (IHN) can be an alternative, efficient, NO-driven pathway leading to the formation of IEPOX in urban areas where moderate to high NO concentrations exist. Field measurements from the megacity of Beijing show that this pathway contributes to more than 50% of IEPOX production during the morning and early afternoon. The results improve our understanding of the NO_x dependence of SOA formation in polluted areas, where anthropogenic emissions can significantly enhance biogenic SOA formation.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144566378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}