npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第2页

Skilful global seasonal predictions from a machine learning weather model trained on reanalysis data 通过再分析数据训练的机器学习天气模型进行熟练的全球季节预测

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01198-3

Chris Kent, Adam A. Scaife, Nick J. Dunstone, Doug Smith, Steven C. Hardiman, Tom Dunstan, Oliver Watt-Meyer

{"title":"Skilful global seasonal predictions from a machine learning weather model trained on reanalysis data","authors":"Chris Kent, Adam A. Scaife, Nick J. Dunstone, Doug Smith, Steven C. Hardiman, Tom Dunstan, Oliver Watt-Meyer","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01198-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01198-3","url":null,"abstract":"Machine learning weather models trained on observed atmospheric conditions can outperform conventional physics-based models at short- to medium-range (1–14 day) forecast timescales. Here we take the machine learning model ACE2, trained to predict 6-hourly steps in atmospheric evolution and which can remain stable over long forecast periods, and assess it from a seasonal forecasting perspective (1–3 month lead time). Applying persisted sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice anomalies centred on 1st November each year, we initialise a lagged ensemble of seasonal predictions covering 1993/1994 to 2015/2016. Over this 23-year period there is remarkable similarity in the patterns of predictability with a leading physics-based model. The ACE2 model exhibits skilful predictions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with a correlation score of 0.47 (p = 0.02), as well as a realistic global distribution of skill and ensemble spread. Surprisingly, ACE2 is found to exhibit a signal-to-noise error as seen in physics-based models, in which it is better at predicting the real world than itself. Examining predictions of winter 2009/2010 indicates potential limitations of ACE2 in capturing extreme seasonal conditions that extend outside the training data. This study reveals that machine learning weather models can produce skilful global seasonal predictions and provide new opportunities for increased understanding, development and generation of near-term climate predictions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144897931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Seasonal emergence of human-caused expansion of the boreal tropical hydrological cycle 季节性出现人为造成的北方热带水文循环扩张

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01203-9

Rei Chemke, Kevin M. Grise

引用次数: 0

Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones driven by genesis location shift under global warming in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA models HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA模式下全球变暖下成因位置转移驱动的北太平洋西部热带气旋向极地迁移

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01194-7

Mingyu Li, Chaoxia Yuan, Jiuwei Zhao, Qingqing Li

{"title":"Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones driven by genesis location shift under global warming in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA models","authors":"Mingyu Li, Chaoxia Yuan, Jiuwei Zhao, Qingqing Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01194-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01194-7","url":null,"abstract":"The latitudinal position of lifetime maximum intensity (({varphi }_{{LMI}})) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) has been observed to migrate poleward over the last several decades, but the cause remains not fully understood. In this study, we utilized 20 models from the PRIMAVERA project with different configurations to investigate long-term changes in the ({varphi }_{{LMI}}) in the WNP. Over a hundred-year simulations under global warming, most models demonstrate a poleward shift of ({varphi }_{{LMI}}) with a multi-model-mean rate of 0.068° decade−1. This poleward trend can be predominantly explained by the poleward shift of TC genesis latitude. Specifically, the poleward shift of TC genesis latitude contributes 0.28° decade−1 to the trend, the meridional shift of the Hadley circulation’s ascending branch contributes 0.03° decade−1, but they are largely offset by the negative contribution of -0.24° decade−1 by the decreasing lifetime maximum intensity.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Systematic review and meta-analysis of methodological approaches for characterising airborne SARS-CoV-2 RNA for environmental surveillance 环境监测中空气传播SARS-CoV-2 RNA特征方法学方法的系统回顾和荟萃分析

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01180-z

C. Alfaro-Perez, M. Barberá-Riera, R. de Llanos, JM Delgado-Saborit

{"title":"Systematic review and meta-analysis of methodological approaches for characterising airborne SARS-CoV-2 RNA for environmental surveillance","authors":"C. Alfaro-Perez, M. Barberá-Riera, R. de Llanos, JM Delgado-Saborit","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01180-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01180-z","url":null,"abstract":"SARS-CoV-2 has transformed our understanding of respiratory disease transmission, particularly through aerosols. This systematic review examines studies published up to October 2, 2024 and focused on filter-based sampling methods reviewing key sampling and molecular diagnostic parameters to characterise airborne SARS-CoV-2 RNA from filters. A total of 84 studies were reviewed, yielding 104 datasets from different environments, including 70 studies indoors, 8 outdoors and 6 sampling both indoors and outdoors. The findings suggest that sampling volume, type of filter and storage conditions after sampling affect the detection positivity rate of SARS-CoV-2 genetic material in aerosols sampled near infected individuals indoors. No sampling or analytical parameters were identified to be associated with detection or quantification. Further experiments are recommended to ascertain the optimal methodological parameters for characterising SARS-COV-2 RNA in aerosols for environmental surveillance, including early warning systems, non-intrusive environmental monitoring, managing COVID-19 outbreaks and characterising viral airborne transmission.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"146 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144897971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unraveling secondary organic aerosol formation from isoprene and toluene mixture 解开异戊二烯和甲苯混合物形成的二级有机气溶胶

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01189-4

Shijie Han, Zijun Li, Yik Sze Lau, Yang Xiao, Branka Miljevic, Johanna Horchler, Jiangyong Li, Wan-Ping Hu, Hao Wang, Boguang Wang, Zoran Ristovski

{"title":"Unraveling secondary organic aerosol formation from isoprene and toluene mixture","authors":"Shijie Han, Zijun Li, Yik Sze Lau, Yang Xiao, Branka Miljevic, Johanna Horchler, Jiangyong Li, Wan-Ping Hu, Hao Wang, Boguang Wang, Zoran Ristovski","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01189-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01189-4","url":null,"abstract":"Interactions between anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (AVOCs and BVOCs) widely exist in the atmosphere, but the resultant secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation is still poorly understood. When the two commonly widespread AVOC and BVOC, toluene and isoprene, coexisted and oxidized, we observed >20% reduction in the SOA yields compared to the predicted ones from linear addition. By resolving the particle mass spectra using positive matrix factorization, we found that SOA formation from the isoprene+toluene mixture was dominated by the isoprene-related (F-ISO-1 and F-ISO-2) and toluene-related (F-TOL-1 and F-TOL-2) factors during the early and later stages, respectively. Additionally, we observed the formation of cross-products (F-MIX) between isoprene and toluene oxidation intermediates, which accounted for ~30% of the total SOA mass on average. The formation of F-MIX was accompanied by the suppression of particulate products (F-ISO-2 and F-TOL-2), which were associated with the oxidation of ISOPOOH and later-stage oxidation of toluene. Overall, our results highlight the complex interplay between BVOCs and AVOCs and the resultant nonlinear SOA formation in real atmospheres.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144897932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Decadal predictability of summer precipitation in Northwestern China originated from the North Atlantic Ocean 中国西北地区夏季降水的年代际可预测性来源于北大西洋

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01197-4

Yuhang Xiang, Juan Li, Bin Wang, Zhiwei Zhu

{"title":"Decadal predictability of summer precipitation in Northwestern China originated from the North Atlantic Ocean","authors":"Yuhang Xiang, Juan Li, Bin Wang, Zhiwei Zhu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01197-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01197-4","url":null,"abstract":"Northwestern China (NWC) has a monsoon-like, arid and semi-arid climate with considerable decadal variability and long-term trends. Decadal prediction of summer precipitation remains challenging due to the mixed influence of external forcing and internal variability. This study shows that the decadal internal variability of domain-averaged summer precipitation over NWC (NWCP) primarily originates from the extratropical North Atlantic dipole (NAD) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), which excite a Eurasian Rossby wave train by enhancing the transient eddy forcing. The resultant anomalous Mongolian cyclone increases the NWCP through the cyclonic vorticity-generated upward moisture transport. By combining this empirical relationship and dynamical models’ predicted NAD SSTA, we attempted a hybrid dynamic-empirical model to predict the decadal internal variability component. After adding the external forcing component, the model can predict the decadal NWCP 7–10 years in advance. Our result opens a pathway for decadal prediction of precipitation in central Eurasia’s dry regions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144897972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Subpolar North Atlantic sea surface salinity as an AMOC mean state indicator 亚极地北大西洋海面盐度作为AMOC平均状态指标

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01190-x

Jinhui Dai, Fanghua Xu, Jonathon S. Wright, Rui Xin Huang, Xiaomeng Huang

引用次数: 0

Increasing tropical cyclone residence time along the Chinese coastline driven by track rotation 受路径旋转驱动，中国沿海热带气旋停留时间增加

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01178-7

Linjiang Li, Johnny C. L. Chan, Guihua Wang, Yunxia Zheng

引用次数: 0

Contrasting historical trends of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Hemisphere 对比北半球大气河流的历史趋势

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01191-w

Mengxin Pan, Shineng Hu, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, William K. Pan

引用次数: 0

Atmospheric organic aerosols: online molecular characterization and environmental impacts 大气有机气溶胶：在线分子表征和环境影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01199-2

Yele Sun, Hao Luo, Ying Li, Wei Zhou, Weiqi Xu, Pingqing Fu, Defeng Zhao

{"title":"Atmospheric organic aerosols: online molecular characterization and environmental impacts","authors":"Yele Sun, Hao Luo, Ying Li, Wei Zhou, Weiqi Xu, Pingqing Fu, Defeng Zhao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01199-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01199-2","url":null,"abstract":"Organic aerosols (OA) play critical roles in atmospheric chemistry, air quality, climate forcing, and public health. However, their chemical complexity, comprising thousands of compounds with a wide range of volatilities, functionalities, and oxidation states, poses substantial challenges for comprehensive characterization and impact assessment. Advances in high-resolution mass spectrometry, particularly when coupled with specialized inlets such as the Filter Inlet for Gases and Aerosols (FIGAERO) and Extractive Electrospray Ionization (EESI), have enabled real-time molecular-level analysis of both gas- and particle-phase organics. These developments have substantially improved insights into OA composition, physicochemical properties, sources, and formation pathways. This review critically assesses recent progress in widely used analytical techniques for molecular characterization of OA and their applications in ambient air, emission sources, and indoor environments. Parameterizations of key OA properties, including volatility, viscosity, and hygroscopicity based on molecular data are summarized. Recent findings on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation mechanisms, including homogeneous oxidation, heterogeneous processing, and gas-particle partitioning, are discussed. In addition, the review highlights molecular-marker-based advances in source apportionment and examines the role of OA in new particle formation and its implications for climate and health. Finally, future research directions to improve molecular-level understanding of OA and its environmental impacts are proposed.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0