npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

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Indian Ocean Dipole extremes extend seasonal predictability of North China Plain summer heat 印度洋偶极子极端事件延长了华北平原夏季高温的季节性可预测性
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01521-6
Zhaolu Hou, Jianping Li, Lei Wang, Yina Diao, Shixin Zhen
{"title":"Indian Ocean Dipole extremes extend seasonal predictability of North China Plain summer heat","authors":"Zhaolu Hou, Jianping Li, Lei Wang, Yina Diao, Shixin Zhen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01521-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01521-6","url":null,"abstract":"Seasonal predictability of regional extreme heat depends on how boundary-condition signals shape intrinsic error growth. Here we examine whether May–July (MJJ) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) extremes modulate the predictability limit (PL) of summer extreme maximum temperature (TXx) over the North China Plain (NCP). Using ERA5-derived TXx and a nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent framework, we show that both negative and positive IOD extremes slow early TXx error growth relative to neutral IOD conditions. The NCP TXx PL increases from 2.78 months in neutral years to 4.14 months for combined IOD extremes. Composite diagnostics link this extension to organized Indo-Pacific convection, western North Pacific circulation, and local moisture–cloud–radiation constraints. TXx amplitude is not enhanced, indicating that longer predictability arises from constrained local evolution rather than stronger heat anomalies. These results identify MJJ IOD extremes as a boundary-condition context for enhanced seasonal TXx potential predictability.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148853498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation-driven dry–wet boundaries and associated impacts from 1975 to 2025 in Mainland China 1975 - 2025年中国大陆降水驱动干湿边界的时空变化及其相关影响
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01520-7
Sihai Zeng, Xiaobo Yun, Hongjun Bao, Jianwen Wang
{"title":"Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation-driven dry–wet boundaries and associated impacts from 1975 to 2025 in Mainland China","authors":"Sihai Zeng, Xiaobo Yun, Hongjun Bao, Jianwen Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01520-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01520-7","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is accelerating the water cycle and shifting climatic boundaries, potentially challenging flood-control systems in northern China designed under historical climate stationarity. Yet, the spatiotemporal movement of core precipitation isohyets defining China’s dry–wet boundaries has not been fully quantified. Here we analyze data from 2474 meteorological stations across Mainland China during 1975–2025 to track changes in the 200-, 400-, and 800-mm isohyets and basin-scale precipitation patterns. We find significant wetting across the northern basins, contrasting with relative stability across the southern humid basins. After 1996 and 2011, respectively, the 200- and 400-mm boundaries shifted northwestward and westward, expanding relatively humid conditions across the northern basins. By contrast, the 800-mm humid boundary remained comparatively stable across Mainland China. Importantly, in the Haihe and Yellow River Basins, the post-2011 400-mm transition was more strongly associated with R50 (annual precipitation from rainstorm days) than with non-extreme precipitation. After the 2011 changepoint, rainstorm activity became increasingly concentrated in the northern transition band, accompanied by synchronous increases in regional heavy-rain frequency and intensity. The recent wetting of these basins thus includes a structural shift toward more concentrated rainstorm precipitation, with implications for regional flood risk management and water resources planning.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148853497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Observation-driven meta-learning framework for near-real-time mapping of hourly multi-pollutant air quality across China 中国每小时多污染物空气质量近实时制图的观测驱动元学习框架
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-24 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01517-2
Zhiguo Zhang, Qihou Hu, Qihua Li, Jingkai Xue, Peize Lin, Zhijian Tang, Jun Zhang, Zirui Xuan, Chuan Lu, Cheng Liu
{"title":"Observation-driven meta-learning framework for near-real-time mapping of hourly multi-pollutant air quality across China","authors":"Zhiguo Zhang, Qihou Hu, Qihua Li, Jingkai Xue, Peize Lin, Zhijian Tang, Jun Zhang, Zirui Xuan, Chuan Lu, Cheng Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01517-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01517-2","url":null,"abstract":"High-resolution, temporally continuous information on multiple air pollutants is essential for understanding atmospheric processes, tracking emission-control outcomes, and assessing population exposure. Here we present an observation-driven framework for hourly, 1-km, near-real-time reconstruction of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO and O3 and generate the Hourly Air Multi-species Pollutants product for China (HAMP). This framework combines neural-process-based meta-learning, long-range dependency modeling and multi-objective optimization to fuse ground observations with satellite retrievals, meteorology, emissions and geographic covariates. In a temporally independent 2025 evaluation, HAMP reproduced in-situ observations with ({R}^{2}) values of 0.58–0.95, and reduced RMSE by 59.2–83.5% relative to CAMS analysis data; blind validation at 148 newly established stations confirmed its spatiotemporal transferability. Removing non-target pollutant observations increased RMSE by 17.8–44.9%, showing that cross-species information provides useful constraints. The resulting 2015–2025 dataset reveals strong sub-daily variability and rapid cross-regional transport that daily averages obscure. A modified hourly AQHI-based comparative exposure analysis indicates that the population-weighted metric decreased by 16.03–23.80%, while O3 became an increasingly important exposure driver.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148853499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of heterogeneous particle distributions on secondary ice production through the rime-splintering process in isolated convective clouds 非均匀颗粒分布对孤立对流云中破冰过程中二次产冰的影响
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01516-3
Zhitong Xu, Jing Yang, Xiaoqin Jing, Yong Wang, Zhien Wang, Qilin Zhang
{"title":"Impact of heterogeneous particle distributions on secondary ice production through the rime-splintering process in isolated convective clouds","authors":"Zhitong Xu, Jing Yang, Xiaoqin Jing, Yong Wang, Zhien Wang, Qilin Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01516-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01516-3","url":null,"abstract":"The rime-splintering (RS) process, which is one of the most important secondary ice production mechanisms, plays a crucial role in regulating ice crystal number concentrations and precipitation formation in convective clouds. The initiation and efficiency of the RS process are modulated by the spatial distributions of liquid and ice particles, which are highly heterogeneous. However, numerical models are developed based on the idealized assumption of homogeneous liquid-ice mixing in a given volume, which causes large uncertainties in modeling ice production in convective clouds. Based on in-situ measurements from The Convective Precipitation Experiment (COPE), this study investigates how the heterogeneous particle distribution affects the RS process by defining an impact factor FHM. The liquid-ice mixing homogeneity (χ) in a given cloud is quantified using information-theoretic entropy, and the spread of riming rate (ΔRrim) is quantified using the maximum Rrim minus the minimum one. The results show that FHM increases with χ at a given temperature, indicating that a greater liquid-ice mixing homogeneity enhances the occurrence of RS process. Since the RS process is non-linear, in most of the observed clouds FHM exceeds 1, and increases with increasing ΔRrim, suggesting the heterogeneous particle distribution enhances the mean ice production rate compared to that assuming homogeneous particle distribution. Among the various meteorological factors that influence χ and ΔRrim, vertical wind shear (WS) and condensed water content (CWC) show the strongest yet opposing correlations with χ, while temperature (T) and WS contribute the most to ΔRrim. These insights provide a new perspective for advancing subgrid-scale parameterization of the RS process.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"160 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148769192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monsoon–ocean competition shapes the record-low 2023 western North Pacific tropical cyclone season 2023年西北太平洋热带气旋季节,季风与海洋的竞争形成了历史最低记录
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01515-4
Lixia Pan, Jiepeng Chen, Sheng Chen, Lei Zhou, Chunzai Wang, Xin Wang
{"title":"Monsoon–ocean competition shapes the record-low 2023 western North Pacific tropical cyclone season","authors":"Lixia Pan, Jiepeng Chen, Sheng Chen, Lei Zhou, Chunzai Wang, Xin Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01515-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01515-4","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP), the most active TC basin worldwide, is generally viewed as being controlled by remote oceanic forcing, especially the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, oceanic forcing alone cannot fully explain variability in TC genesis. Here we show that the record-low WNP typhoon season of 2023 emerged from strong seasonal asymmetry rather than uniform suppression. Despite unfavorable large-scale ocean conditions, summer TC genesis frequency remained near climatology because a weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM) triggered an atmospheric Kelvin-wave response that induced a WNP cyclonic circulation anomaly. This circulation offset the ocean-forced anticyclone and maintained environmental conditions favorable for TC genesis. In contrast, remote ocean forcing dominated during autumn, producing unprecedented suppression and driving the seasonal minimum. These results highlight a pathway by which ISM variability can counteract basin-scale oceanic forcing and regulate WNP TC variability, with potential implications for improving TC prediction.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148769215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tracing vegetation stress from space: isoprene emissions capture the spatiotemporal footprint of El Niño 从空间追踪植被应力:异戊二烯排放捕获El Niño的时空足迹
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01518-1
Haoran Liu, I. Colin Prentice, Catherine Morfopoulos
{"title":"Tracing vegetation stress from space: isoprene emissions capture the spatiotemporal footprint of El Niño","authors":"Haoran Liu, I. Colin Prentice, Catherine Morfopoulos","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01518-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01518-1","url":null,"abstract":"El Niño events exert a profound influence on the global carbon cycle by imposing widespread heat and water stress on terrestrial ecosystems. Plant isoprene emissions respond rapidly to such stress, yet it remains unclear whether this response can track the spatiotemporal evolution of El Niño’s impacts over land. Here, we used satellite-derived global isoprene emissions for the first time to assess the west-east progression of the 2015–2016 El Niño. We observed that isoprene emissions increased by up to approximately 30% across tropical ecosystems relative to the climatological mean, with pronounced anomalies emerging during the event. The spatiotemporal evolution of these anomalies closely aligns with the El Niño progression inferred from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. In contrast, commonly used satellite vegetation products, including leaf area index (LAI) and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), show weaker and spatially incoherent responses. These results demonstrate that satellite-derived isoprene provides a sensitive and mechanistically grounded tracer of ecosystem stress, offering a complementary perspective for monitoring the intensity and propagation of extreme climate events across terrestrial ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148769193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improvement of riming process parameterization in the WRF model and its advantages in simulating precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau WRF模式中轮辋过程参数化的改进及其在青藏高原降水模拟中的优势
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01510-9
Kunjing Yang, Xiaoqi Xu, Chunsong Lu, Jinghua Chen, Jing Yang, Junjun Li, Kai Yang, Naifu Shao, Jian Li, Xingwen Jiang, Haoming Chen
{"title":"Improvement of riming process parameterization in the WRF model and its advantages in simulating precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Kunjing Yang, Xiaoqi Xu, Chunsong Lu, Jinghua Chen, Jing Yang, Junjun Li, Kai Yang, Naifu Shao, Jian Li, Xingwen Jiang, Haoming Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01510-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01510-9","url":null,"abstract":"The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is characterized by frequent mixed-phase clouds, in which riming exerts a crucial control on precipitation formation. However, conventional bulk microphysics schemes generally ignore the regulatory impact of sub-grid liquid-ice mixing state on riming processes. This study improves the riming parameterization within the WRF Morrison scheme by adopting constant reduction coefficients and introducing a diagnostic mixing homogeneity parameter χ for snow and graupel, which varies with condensed water content and temperature. Reduced riming coefficients correct simulated precipitation distribution and spatial deviation, while χ-based dynamic regulation further optimizes temporal variation of regional precipitation, reducing RMSE by 23.8%. The modified scheme shows superior performance across all rainfall grades, particularly for heavy and torrential rain. Physically, χ inhibits excessive riming, maintains supercooled liquid droplets, and effectively alleviates the overestimation of surface precipitation. One-month simulations validate that considering liquid-ice mixing homogeneity markedly improves WRF precipitation simulation capability over the TP.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"187 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148769372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Contrasting impacts of Greenland and Antarctic meltwater on tropical circulation 格陵兰和南极融水对热带环流的影响对比
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01506-5
Navajyoth Puthiyaveettil, Wonsun Park
{"title":"Contrasting impacts of Greenland and Antarctic meltwater on tropical circulation","authors":"Navajyoth Puthiyaveettil, Wonsun Park","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01506-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01506-5","url":null,"abstract":"Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass rapidly, contributing significantly to sea level rise and altering global climate patterns. Freshwater input from these ice sheets influences tropical climate through ocean-atmosphere interactions, but their distinct impacts remain unclear. Here, we use coupled climate model simulations with imposed meltwater fluxes from Greenland, Antarctica, and both combined under global warming scenarios to investigate tropical responses. We find that Greenland meltwater induces a pronounced southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and strengthens the Walker circulation, while Antarctic meltwater causes weaker, opposite-signed effects. Combined meltwater forcing partially offsets these responses, with Greenland effects dominating. These asymmetric impacts arise from differential perturbations to ocean heat transport, atmospheric energy transport, and Atlantic–Pacific pressure-wind adjustments, with cloud-radiative changes acting as secondary modulators. Our results suggest that, under symmetric meltwater perturbations, Northern Hemisphere ice sheet melt may disproportionately influence tropical rainfall and circulation patterns, underscoring the need to represent freshwater forcing pathways in climate projections accurately.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148769195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Aerosol particle size modulates cloud droplet effective radius responses over land and ocean in South Asia 气溶胶粒径调节南亚陆地和海洋上空云滴的有效半径响应
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01509-2
Yanan Guo, Chuanfeng Zhao, Junqiang Song, Xiaoqun Cao, Hongze Leng, Yikun Yang
{"title":"Aerosol particle size modulates cloud droplet effective radius responses over land and ocean in South Asia","authors":"Yanan Guo, Chuanfeng Zhao, Junqiang Song, Xiaoqun Cao, Hongze Leng, Yikun Yang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01509-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01509-2","url":null,"abstract":"Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) are a leading uncertainty in radiative forcing, yet aerosol particle size is poorly quantified over South Asia. Using 2.7 million satellite observations (2015–2021), we test whether the Ångström Exponent (AE) modulates cloud droplet effective radius (CER) responses to aerosol index (AI) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the subcontinent and adjacent ocean. Three methods target distinct estimands: AE-stratified binned regression, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and Double Machine Learning (DML) causal forests. Binned regressions reveal a robust land–ocean contrast. Oceanic coarse-mode regimes show negative sensitivities of − 2.6 to − 5.3 μm per AI unit, consistent with the Twomey effect. Continental fine-mode regimes show positive sensitivities of + 0.4 to + 1.3 μm per AI unit. This contrast persists across cloud water path (CWP) strata. XGBoost–SHAP corroborates it, ranking AE among the leading predictors. DML causal forests recover confounder-adjusted loading sensitivities ∂CER/∂AOD strengthening from polluted land to pristine ocean (+ 0.82 to + 3.99 μm per unit AOD); distinct from the negative CER–AI Twomey slope, these sign-uniform positive values reflect a cleaner marine CCN-loading response. Aerosol size thus shapes ACI regionally, with robust oceanic Twomey-like signals but specification-dependent continental sensitivities reversing under alternative AE proxies, precluding a continental anti-Twomey interpretation.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148769371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Efficient nitrogen management as a win-win strategy for air quality, health, and climate 有效的氮管理是空气质量、健康和气候的双赢战略
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01511-8
Zhuyi Wang, Yuqiang Zhang, Gregory Faluvegi, Qianru Zhang, Wilfried Winiwarter, Bin Luo, Drew Shindell
{"title":"Efficient nitrogen management as a win-win strategy for air quality, health, and climate","authors":"Zhuyi Wang, Yuqiang Zhang, Gregory Faluvegi, Qianru Zhang, Wilfried Winiwarter, Bin Luo, Drew Shindell","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01511-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01511-8","url":null,"abstract":"Reactive nitrogen (Nr) management links climate policy, air quality and food production, yet its combined impacts remain poorly quantified. Here, we conduct ensemble simulations with two global climate models, Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Community Earth System Model (CESM), to evaluate the air quality and climate co-benefits of Nr mitigation. By mid-century, both models simulate positive aerosol radiative forcing (RF) and negative ozone RF, yielding a net positive RF of 150 mW m−2 (95% CI: 120–180 mW m−2) in GISS and 60 mW m−2 (10–120 mW m−2) in CESM. Global air quality also improves, with global area-weighted mean PM2.5 concentrations decreasing by 0.16 µg m−3 (0.07–0.25 µg m−3) and 0.13 µg m−3 (0.05 to 0.21 µg m−3) and global area-weighted mean maximum daily 8-h average ozone decreasing by 1.69 ppb (1.48–1.89 ppb) and 0.99 ppb (0.88–1.10 ppb) in GISS and CESM, respectively. Regional PM2.5 reductions exceed 5 µg m−3. Moreover, more than 80% of avoided premature deaths occur across 0–60°N. Although efficient nitrogen management induces a modest, transient near-term climate penalty, long-term climate benefits from lower N2O emissions eventually offset this effect and deliver major air quality, health, and ecosystem co-benefits.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"63 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148769198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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