npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第3页

Anthropogenic emissions mitigation weakens projected springtime dust intensification in Africa 人为排放减缓削弱了非洲春季沙尘加剧的预估

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-15 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01512-7

Lin Liu, Zhili Wang, Deying Wang, Yadong Lei, Junting Zhong, Xiaochao Yu, Lifeng Guo, Xiaoye Zhang

{"title":"Anthropogenic emissions mitigation weakens projected springtime dust intensification in Africa","authors":"Lin Liu, Zhili Wang, Deying Wang, Yadong Lei, Junting Zhong, Xiaochao Yu, Lifeng Guo, Xiaoye Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01512-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01512-7","url":null,"abstract":"Mitigation of anthropogenic emissions can influence mineral dust not only by limiting global warming but also by reshaping regional circulation and hydroclimate. Here, we use fully coupled CESM2.1.3 simulations to compare future African springtime dust under a China-aligned global emissions pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 2 °C target (SSP2-com) and a baseline experiment in which anthropogenic emissions are held at their 2023 levels (Fix2023). By the late twenty-first century, dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) increases over much of Africa in both experiments, but the increase is substantially weaker over the southern Sahara–Sahel region under SSP2-com. Within the main 10°–20°N source belt, Fix2023 produces a stronger North Africa–North Atlantic thermal contrast, a larger circulation response, and greater strengthening of low-level easterly winds, favoring dust mobilization and transport. Farther south, where the correspondence between local wind and dust AOD is weaker, smaller increases in the frequencies of high-temperature and dry days under SSP2-com point to a complementary hydroclimatic influence through meteorological conditions conducive to surface drying. The regional contrast therefore reflects spatially heterogeneous dynamical and hydroclimatic processes rather than a uniform wind-speed control. These results demonstrate that a mitigation pathway aligned with the 2 °C target can substantially limit projected African springtime dust intensification.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148728849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

High-temporal-resolution chemical characterization of PM0.1 at a Mediterranean background site 地中海背景地点PM0.1的高时间分辨率化学特征

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-15 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01514-5

Georgia A. Argyropoulou, Christina N. Vasilakopoulou, Kalliopi Florou, Andreas Aktypis, Christos Kaltsonoudis, Angeliki Matrali, Katerina Seitanidi, Manousos Manousakas, Kostantinos Eleftheriadis, Spyros N. Pandis

{"title":"High-temporal-resolution chemical characterization of PM0.1 at a Mediterranean background site","authors":"Georgia A. Argyropoulou, Christina N. Vasilakopoulou, Kalliopi Florou, Andreas Aktypis, Christos Kaltsonoudis, Angeliki Matrali, Katerina Seitanidi, Manousos Manousakas, Kostantinos Eleftheriadis, Spyros N. Pandis","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01514-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01514-5","url":null,"abstract":"Ultrafine particles can penetrate sensitive human organs and are strongly associated with adverse health effects. This study presents the first high-temporal-resolution chemical characterization of PM0.1 at a Mediterranean background site under conditions in which photochemistry and transport are dominant processes. PM0.1 mass averaged 0.5 μg m−3 and exhibited sharp midday increases from frequent SO2-driven new particle formation events occurring within 50 km of the site. PM0.1 exhibited weak correlation (R2 = 0.25) with PM1, though organic aerosol and sulfate dominated both. Elemental analysis identified elevated Ca and Fe in PM0.1, potentially linked to shipping, whereas PM2.5 Ca was mostly associated with dust/soil. Volcanic plumes from Mt. Etna (750 km away) were also captured. During these events, SO2 levels increased tenfold and were accompanied by elevated levels of Zn, Pb, and As in PM0.1, indicating persistence of heavy metals in PM0.1 even over long-range transport.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148728859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Skillful and interpretable ENSO prediction via a glass-box dynamical-deep learning model 通过玻璃盒动态深度学习模型的熟练和可解释的ENSO预测

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-15 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01513-6

Mingyu Wang, Jianping Li

{"title":"Skillful and interpretable ENSO prediction via a glass-box dynamical-deep learning model","authors":"Mingyu Wang, Jianping Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01513-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01513-6","url":null,"abstract":"The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability with profound global socioeconomic and ecological impacts1–3. Skillful long-lead prediction of ENSO is critical but remains hindered by nonlinear ocean–atmosphere coupling and the formidable spring predictability barrier (SPB)4–6. While recent deep learning models have shown promise in extending ENSO forecasts beyond a lead time of one year, they largely operate as opaque “black boxes” that mask underlying physical mechanisms. Here we leverage dynamical system deep learning (DSDL)7,8 to construct a fully transparent, multivariate “glass-box” ENSO prediction model. Our model achieves skillful predictions up to 19 months ahead, robustly circumventing the SPB and significantly outperforming state-of-the-art models. Notably, it successfully hindcasts the onset, intensity, and decay of the 2015–2016 super El Niño event more than a year in advance, even when initialized during the boreal spring. Physical interpretation reveals that the “glass-box” DSDL model functions as a multi-basin synergistic prediction framework, which further predicts a potential super El Niño development in 2026–2027. By rendering all model terms explicit, this approach transforms the “black box” into a physically accountable dynamical system, representing a fundamental advance in interpretable climate forecasting.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148728851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Europe’s extreme temperatures and rainfall in finer detail: strengths and limits of climate model downscaling 欧洲极端温度和降雨的细节：气候模型缩小的优势和限制

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-14 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01504-7

Mira Hulkkonen, Akash Deshmukh, Tero Mielonen, Ian G. Brosnan, Taejin Park, Hugo Lee, Weile Wang, Bridget Thrasher, Jessica L. McCarty, Harri Kokkola, Anton Laakso

{"title":"Europe’s extreme temperatures and rainfall in finer detail: strengths and limits of climate model downscaling","authors":"Mira Hulkkonen, Akash Deshmukh, Tero Mielonen, Ian G. Brosnan, Taejin Park, Hugo Lee, Weile Wang, Bridget Thrasher, Jessica L. McCarty, Harri Kokkola, Anton Laakso","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01504-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01504-7","url":null,"abstract":"Climate extremes in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, heightening the need for reliable regional climate information to support preparedness and adaptation. Downscaled climate model (DCM) products are widely used for this purpose. Yet, their accuracy relative to global climate models (GCMs) and observations remains uncertain, particularly for extremes. We evaluated DCM ensembles (EURO-CORDEX, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, GDPCIR) against GCMs (CMIP5, CMIP6) and reanalysis datasets (ERA5, GMFD), using gridded observational data (E-OBS) as reference. Model accuracy was assessed for mean and extreme temperature and precipitation across Europe using complementary metrics that quantify distributional accuracy, pointwise agreement, and bias magnitude and direction. The results show that downscaling can add details to and increase the accuracy of modeled climate variables in Europe. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected products NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 and GDPCIR generally outperform their driving GCM for mean and extreme temperature, and for mean precipitation, whereas gains for extreme precipitation are limited. Compared to E-OBS, the dynamically downscaled ensemble EURO-CORDEX exhibits some strong regional biases, notably for temperature. No single dataset performs best in all regions. Across datasets, accuracy is reduced in areas with complex terrain (mountains and coastlines). Uncertainties of the observational benchmark further complicate the evaluation. Our findings highlight both the value and limitations of climate model downscaling: while DCMs provide critical fine-scale information, their reliability is variable- and region-dependent, with extreme precipitation and conditions in complex terrain remaining particularly difficult to capture.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148728862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-decadal evolution of ocean–monsoon teleconnections and the resurgence of ENSO influence on Indian summer monsoon rainfall 海洋-季风遥相关的多年代际演变和ENSO对印度夏季风降雨的影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01497-3

Kalpesh R. Patil, Swadhin Behera, Toshio Yamagata

{"title":"Multi-decadal evolution of ocean–monsoon teleconnections and the resurgence of ENSO influence on Indian summer monsoon rainfall","authors":"Kalpesh R. Patil, Swadhin Behera, Toshio Yamagata","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01497-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01497-3","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is crucial for anticipating regional climate impacts. This study demonstrates the ISMR’s strong large-scale oceanic teleconnections, particularly with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose influence was relatively weak in earlier decades but has intensified in the current decade. By applying sliding correlations between the ISMR index and gridded ocean temperatures over 11-year windows, the study identifies dominant recurrent teleconnection patterns. A machine learning technique is then used to isolate statistically significant robust modes of variability. These patterns connect with ISMR with the phases of active and inactive periods over time. The analysis reveals new and confirms known teleconnections. Notably, revealing signals from the southern/eastern Indian Ocean and the equatorial/northern Atlantic primarily affect southern and western India, highlighting regional variations in monsoon response. Also, the influence of the tropical Pacific, both at the surface and subsurface levels, appears to be resurging, contrary to earlier studies that suggested it was weakening. These findings provide new insights and stress the need to keep monitoring large-scale oceanic influences to improve seasonal forecasts and climate risk assessments in South Asia.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148728853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Thermodynamic insights into the molecular evolution of water-soluble organic matter in suburban PM2.5 郊区PM2.5中水溶性有机物分子演化的热力学洞察

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01503-8

Ning Yang, Hong Ren, Yufei Liu, Lingyan Fu, Ben Xiong, Pingqing Fu

{"title":"Thermodynamic insights into the molecular evolution of water-soluble organic matter in suburban PM2.5","authors":"Ning Yang, Hong Ren, Yufei Liu, Lingyan Fu, Ben Xiong, Pingqing Fu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01503-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01503-8","url":null,"abstract":"Water-soluble organic matter (WSOM) is a major aerosol component, yet its seasonal molecular variability and thermodynamic evolution remain poorly understood. Here, WSOM extracted from fine particulate matter (PM2.5) collected across four seasons in humid suburban Chongqing was analyzed using ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry. Carboxyl-rich alicyclic molecules and aliphatic compounds were key contributors to seasonal differences in molecular composition, with autumn and winter WSOM exhibiting broader combustion-enthalpy distributions than spring and summer WSOM. Biomass burning and fatty-acid-rich primary emissions contributed more in autumn and winter, consistent with enhanced accumulation during cold-humid pollution episodes. Furthermore, six distinct molecular transformation pathways were identified as pollution levels increased. Among these, methylation/demethylation, hydrogenation/dehydrogenation, and hydroxylation/dehydroxylation accounted for approximately 86.8% of transformations, whereas sulfation/desulfation showed the strongest thermodynamic sensitivity. These findings provide molecular-level insights into the seasonal evolution of WSOM in suburban PM2.5, offering a scientific basis for suburban air pollution control.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148728852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Synthetic UV filters: a previously unrecognized atmospheric heating agent 合成紫外线过滤器：一种以前未被认识的大气加热剂

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01507-4

Yining Xue, Ruoqi Li, Zhiwanxin Li, Junjie Zhang, Yutao Jiao, Shengli Cao, Zhao Yue, Hongwen Sun, Shaojie Song, Lei Wang

{"title":"Synthetic UV filters: a previously unrecognized atmospheric heating agent","authors":"Yining Xue, Ruoqi Li, Zhiwanxin Li, Junjie Zhang, Yutao Jiao, Shengli Cao, Zhao Yue, Hongwen Sun, Shaojie Song, Lei Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01507-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01507-4","url":null,"abstract":"Although atmospheric brown carbon exerts warming effects by absorbing shortwave radiation, its sustainability is limited by photobleaching. In contrast, synthetic ultraviolet (UV) filters can dissipate absorbed UV radiation as thermal energy and retain structural stability. However, their atmospheric heating effects remain poorly understood. We designed a vacuum calorimetric chamber to quantify the heating potential (HP) of synthetic UV filters. The HP of four typical synthetic UV filters was 12–31 W mg−1, greatly exceeding that of p-coumaric acid (5.39 W mg−1), a natural UV filter, and 4-nitrocatechol (6.36 W mg−1), a widespread brown carbon chromophore. Unlike p-coumaric acid, which undergoes photobleaching, synthetic UV filters maintain stable HP under UV radiation. Although four synthetic UV filters constituted only 0.02‰–0.35‰ of the total atmospheric organic matter (AOM), they collectively contributed 1.6–39.5‰ to the HP of AOM. Based on global consumption of synthetic UV filters, preliminary projections indicate that Temperate North America, Central Asia, and Boreal North America are key regions highly susceptible to atmospheric heating induced by these chemicals. Synthetic UV filters are non-negligible anthropogenic contributors to atmospheric heating, shedding new light on an unrecognized climate forcing agent.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148729033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Topographic aspect shapes temperature lapse rates and land–atmosphere energy exchange in global mountains 地形因素决定了全球山地的温度递减率和陆地-大气能量交换

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-10 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01508-3

Xinyao Xie, Wei Zhao, Gaofei Yin, Jiujiang Wu

{"title":"Topographic aspect shapes temperature lapse rates and land–atmosphere energy exchange in global mountains","authors":"Xinyao Xie, Wei Zhao, Gaofei Yin, Jiujiang Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01508-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01508-3","url":null,"abstract":"Mountain regions exhibit complex thermal gradients that regulate land–atmosphere energy exchange, yet the global influence of topographic aspect on temperature lapse rates (LRT) remains poorly characterized. Here, we investigate global LRT patterns and their sensitivity to topographic aspect based on 1-km resolution satellite-derived land surface temperature observations acquired at consistent overpass times of ~10:30 and 22:30 local time during 1995–2020. We reveal pronounced seasonal and diurnal variability in LRT, with aspect-induced variability ranging from 0.34 °C km−¹ to 1.00 °C km⁻¹ globally. This variability is most pronounced during summer daytime, particularly in coastal and high-latitude mountain regions, where the interplay between solar radiation and maritime influence enhances thermal contrasts across slopes. Furthermore, vegetated surfaces exhibit lower aspect-induced LRT variability than non-vegetated surfaces, highlighting the role of vegetation in moderating radiative forcing and regulating land–atmosphere energy exchange. Our findings demonstrate that topographic aspect is a key control on mountain thermal regimes and atmosphere–biosphere interactions, with important implications for improving climate predictions and ecosystem resilience in complex terrain under ongoing climate change.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148728861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Increasing synchronized hourly heavy rainfall over South China reflects enhanced multi-cluster and multi-regional coactivity 华南地区每小时暴雨同步增加反映了多集群和多区域的协同作用增强

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01496-4

Haisheng Liu, Xiaogang Huang, Jianfang Fei, Xiaoping Cheng, Xiadong An, Xiangcheng Li, Shunzhi He

{"title":"Increasing synchronized hourly heavy rainfall over South China reflects enhanced multi-cluster and multi-regional coactivity","authors":"Haisheng Liu, Xiaogang Huang, Jianfang Fei, Xiaoping Cheng, Xiadong An, Xiangcheng Li, Shunzhi He","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01496-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01496-4","url":null,"abstract":"Short-duration heavy rainfall occurring simultaneously across multiple subregions is more likely to trigger severe flooding than events confined to a single local area, yet long-term changes in hourly precipitation synchrony remain poorly quantified. We analyse hourly rain-gauge observations over South China during the 1981–2020 pre-summer rainy season and ERA5 environmental diagnostics. Using a simplified station-based definition, we find a significant increase in synchronized heavy-rain hours of 0.24 percentage points decade−1, equivalent to about +16.7% of the 40-year mean per decade. This increase is expressed mainly as more frequent multi-cluster and multi-regional coactivity, rather than expansion of a single coherent rain area. Synchronized-event days occur within circulation and thermodynamic windows characterized by broader convective instability, stronger low-level moisture transport and convergence, more frequent low-level jets, and a favorable western North Pacific subtropical high configuration. The increasing recurrence of these event-like windows is consistent with the observed rise in synchronized heavy-rain hours. These results identify rainfall synchrony as a spatial connectedness dimension of short-duration extremes and highlight its relevance for compound flood-hazard assessment in humid monsoon regions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148693406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Toward a deeper understanding of tropical cyclone precipitation: insights from SHAP-based AI attribution 深入了解热带气旋降水：基于shap的人工智能归因的见解

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01500-x

Weiqing Qi, Bin Yong, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, J. Scott Tyo, Josh May, Jian Shi, Dae-hui Kim, Mehrtash Tafazzoli Harandi

{"title":"Toward a deeper understanding of tropical cyclone precipitation: insights from SHAP-based AI attribution","authors":"Weiqing Qi, Bin Yong, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, J. Scott Tyo, Josh May, Jian Shi, Dae-hui Kim, Mehrtash Tafazzoli Harandi","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01500-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01500-x","url":null,"abstract":"Precipitation induced by tropical cyclones poses severe threats to both coastal and inland regions, yet its environmental associations remain incompletely understood. Leveraging a LightGBM model combined with SHapley Additive exPlanations, this study quantifies the relationships of atmospheric variables across three vertical layers with four TC precipitation characteristics: precipitation rate, precipitation amount, maximum precipitation intensity, and precipitation area. The analysis is based on global TC records, IMERG precipitation, and ERA5 reanalysis over the past two decades. Attribution results show that mid-to-upper-level vertical velocity and relative humidity are the variables most strongly associated with oceanic TC precipitation, while over land, air temperature and relative humidity become more important. These environmental associations further exhibit pronounced heterogeneity across TC subregions, extreme-event conditions, ocean basins, latitudes, and storm characteristics. Overall, these results offer interpretable insights into the relationships between TC precipitation and environmental factors and may inform future modeling efforts.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148693575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0