npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第3页

Sustained dominance of South Asia’s black carbon pollution impacting the Tibetan plateau in the 21st century 21 世纪南亚黑碳污染对青藏高原的持续影响

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00856-2

Hao Deng, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Qianggong Zhang, Zhiyuan Cong, Wenjie Dong

{"title":"Sustained dominance of South Asia’s black carbon pollution impacting the Tibetan plateau in the 21st century","authors":"Hao Deng, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Qianggong Zhang, Zhiyuan Cong, Wenjie Dong","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00856-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00856-2","url":null,"abstract":"Black carbon (BC) not only warms the atmosphere but also accelerates glacier melt over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), threatening the Asia Water Tower. In order to understand future BC change in the TP, we analyzed the distribution of BC over the TP and its surroundings from 1985 to 2014, as well as under the SSP585 and SSP245 scenarios from 2015 to 2100, utilizing bias-corrected CMIP6 data to drive the regional climate model. BC concentration showed a continuous decrease under both SSP585 and SSP245 scenarios, yet the contribution of BC from South Asia to the TP’s BC steadily increased over time, reaching approximately 87% by the end of the 21st century. The maximum increased contribution was observed in the southeastern part of the TP, gradually decreasing towards the northwest. As the slower rate of BC reduction in South Asia compared to other regions, and the significant decrease in average wind speed over the TP in the future, the contribution of BC from South Asia to the TP has increased despite BC emission reductions. The threat of BC from South Asia on the security of the Asian water tower and the surrounding climate environment persists in the 21st Century.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00856-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142858493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00854-4

Wen Zhang, Weichen Tao, Gang Huang, Kaiming Hu, Xia Qu, Hainan Gong, Kai Yang, Ya Wang

{"title":"Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing","authors":"Wen Zhang, Weichen Tao, Gang Huang, Kaiming Hu, Xia Qu, Hainan Gong, Kai Yang, Ya Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00854-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00854-4","url":null,"abstract":"During the boreal winter, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the East Asia-western North Pacific (WNP) climate by triggering an anomalous WNP anticyclone (WNPAC). Analysis of a suite of coupled model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up (RU) and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, the results reveal that WNPAC strengthens with increasing CO2 concentrations, peaks early in the CO2 RD phase, and then gradually weakens without fully returning to its initial state when CO2 concentrations restore. The irreversible recovery of WNPAC is related to enhanced negative precipitation anomalies in the tropical WNP and positive precipitation anomalies in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. These changed precipitation anomalies are primarily driven by the climatological equatorial Pacific El Niño-like warming pattern due to various external and internal feedback processes. Our findings indicate that the irreversible change of WNPAC to CO2 forcing may hinder the winter monsoon and exacerbate climate risks in the East Asia-WNP region.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00854-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142777295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How well do climate modes explain precipitation variability?

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00853-5

Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, Alex Sen Gupta, Andréa S. Taschetto, Doug Richardson, Neelesh Rampal, Hooman Ayat, Lisa V. Alexander, Andrew J. Pitman

{"title":"How well do climate modes explain precipitation variability?","authors":"Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, Alex Sen Gupta, Andréa S. Taschetto, Doug Richardson, Neelesh Rampal, Hooman Ayat, Lisa V. Alexander, Andrew J. Pitman","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00853-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00853-5","url":null,"abstract":"Large-scale modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole, show significant regional correlations with seasonal weather conditions, and are routinely forecast by meteorological agencies attempting to anticipate seasonal precipitation patterns. Here, we use machine learning together with more traditional approaches to quantify how much precipitation variability can be explained by large-scale modes of variability, and to understand the degree to which these modes interact non-linearly. We find that the relationship between climate modes and precipitation is predominantly non-linear. In some regions and seasons climate modes can explain up to 80% of precipitation variability. However, variability explained is below 10% for more than half of the land surface, and only 1% of the land shows values above 50%. This outcome provides a clear rationale to limit expectations of predictability from modes of variability in all but a few select regions and seasons.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00853-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pacific decadal oscillation and ENSO forcings of northerly low-level jets in South America

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00852-6

Ye Mu, Charles Jones, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Lulin Xue, Changhai Liu, Qinghua Ding

{"title":"Pacific decadal oscillation and ENSO forcings of northerly low-level jets in South America","authors":"Ye Mu, Charles Jones, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Lulin Xue, Changhai Liu, Qinghua Ding","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00852-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00852-6","url":null,"abstract":"The hydrological cycle in South America during austral summer, including extreme precipitation and floods, is significantly influenced by northerly low-level jets (LLJs) along the eastern Andes. These synoptic weather events have been associated with three different types of LLJs (Central, Northern, and Andes) and are sensitive to remote large-scale forcings. This study investigates how tropical forcings related to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regulate the duration and frequency of each LLJ type and their impacts on extreme precipitation. Our analysis reveals that ENSO and PDO are important in driving the variability of LLJs over the past 65 years. Specifically, the Central LLJ type is more prevalent during El Niño and Warm/Neutral PDO phases, leading to heightened extreme precipitation in southern South America. Conversely, La Niña years during Cold PDO phases tend to favor the Northern and Andes LLJs, which are associated with increased precipitation extremes in the western Amazon and southeastern South America. Central and Andes LLJs tend to persist longer during these favored conditions, causing more pronounced precipitation events in the areas under their influence. This study enhances our understanding of the influence of large-scale atmospheric forcings on the regional precipitation dynamics in South America.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00852-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142777297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Summer atmospheric drying could contribute more to soil moisture change than spring vegetation greening

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00844-6

Xiao Chen, Jialin Wang, Feifei Pan, Binxiang Huang, Pengshuai Bi, Na Huang, Riping Gao, Jingyu Men, Fangxiao Zhang, Zhanrui Huang, Buju Long, Ju Liang, Zhihua Pan

{"title":"Summer atmospheric drying could contribute more to soil moisture change than spring vegetation greening","authors":"Xiao Chen, Jialin Wang, Feifei Pan, Binxiang Huang, Pengshuai Bi, Na Huang, Riping Gao, Jingyu Men, Fangxiao Zhang, Zhanrui Huang, Buju Long, Ju Liang, Zhihua Pan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00844-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00844-6","url":null,"abstract":"Widespread spring vegetation greening (inferred by LAI) in the Northern Hemisphere leads to additional summer soil moisture (SM) deficits through increasing transpiration. Meanwhile, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has also been rising, which can increase atmospheric evaporative demand. However, the extent and magnitude of influence of these two factors on SM changes have not been elucidated. Here, based on the state-of-the-art reanalysis and remote sensing data, we use three statistical methods to quantify the contributions of spring LAI and summer VPD to summer SM deficit. The results show that summer VPD contributes more to SM change than spring LAI in the southwestern and northern regions of North America, northeastern Europe, and central and southeastern Asia, covering 13.4% of the vegetated areas despite of the certain influence of spring vegetation greening on summer soil drying. The results are of great significance for climate change adaptation and the enhancement of surface water management.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00844-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142777298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Improve the projection of East China summer precipitation with emergent constraints

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00863-3

Huanhuan Zhu, Zhihong Jiang, Laurent Li, Wei Li, Sheng Jiang

{"title":"Improve the projection of East China summer precipitation with emergent constraints","authors":"Huanhuan Zhu, Zhihong Jiang, Laurent Li, Wei Li, Sheng Jiang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00863-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00863-3","url":null,"abstract":"Under global warming, summer precipitation over East China was projected to increase by current state-of-the-art climate models, but a large inter-model spread exists. Here we try to reduce the projection uncertainty by imposing constraints. Our procedure consists of first decomposing the projected future precipitation into inter-model principal components. The two leading modes (region-wide uniform monopole and north-south dipole, accounting for 55% of variability), by emergent constraints, are then linked to the simulation of historical precipitation in the northwest Pacific and the tropical Pacific (constraining areas). This allows us to reduce the uncertainties by 23% and obtain a smaller increase of projected precipitation in East China, relative to previous multi-model ensemble projections. Quasi-uniform increases, although weak, are obtained for the first mode, while the second mode shows a contrast pattern with a decrease in the south and an increase in the north, which both contribute to the spatial structure of constrainted projection. It is also shown that the emergent relations of both modes are physically consistent, with an enhancement of future zonal land-sea thermal contrast and a La Niña-like pattern, respectively. The use of emergent constraints inspires more confidence in the future regional precipitation projection and helps policymakers and stakeholders adjust their management policies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00863-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142777300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Late-arriving 2023 summer marine heatwave in the East China Sea and implications for global warming

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00846-4

Hyoeun Oh, Jung-Eun Chu, Yongchim Min, Go-Un Kim, Jongmin Jeong, Suchan Lee, Jaeik Lee, Jin-Young Jeong

引用次数: 0

Field calibration of fine particulate matter low-cost sensors in a highly industrialized semi-arid conurbation

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00837-5

Mariana Villarreal-Marines, Michael Pérez-Rodríguez, Yasmany Mancilla, Gabriela Ortiz, Alberto Mendoza

{"title":"Field calibration of fine particulate matter low-cost sensors in a highly industrialized semi-arid conurbation","authors":"Mariana Villarreal-Marines, Michael Pérez-Rodríguez, Yasmany Mancilla, Gabriela Ortiz, Alberto Mendoza","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00837-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00837-5","url":null,"abstract":"Low-cost sensors (LCS) for suspended particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microns (PM2.5) have attracted worldwide attention for crowdsourcing air quality data. Here, we analyze one year’s worth of PM2.5 data from light-scattering LCS deployed in Monterrey, Mexico, one of the most polluted conurbations of Latin America. We also tested the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm for classification and field calibration of the PM2.5 data derived from the LCS. Regression model performance increased from a low baseline (compared to other studies) of R2 ≈ 0.3 to R2 ≈ 0.5, with XGBoost outperforming the other machine learning algorithms tested. Differences in local climate and emission conditions emphasize the significance of considering regional distinctions when interpreting and comparing LCS responses and field calibration efforts. When using rank-level confusion matrices, True Positive air quality classification of predicted PM2.5 levels by XGBoost rated between 71% and 88%.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00837-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142758225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Internal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation longitudinal displacements

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00842-8

María Santolaria-Otín, Javier García-Serrano

引用次数: 0

Predictability of tropical Pacific decadal variability is dominated by oceanic Rossby waves

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00851-7

Xian Wu, Stephen G. Yeager, Clara Deser, Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Michael J. McPhaden

{"title":"Predictability of tropical Pacific decadal variability is dominated by oceanic Rossby waves","authors":"Xian Wu, Stephen G. Yeager, Clara Deser, Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Michael J. McPhaden","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00851-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00851-7","url":null,"abstract":"Despite its pronounced global impacts, tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) is poorly predicted by current climate models due to model deficiencies and a limited understanding of its underlying mechanisms. Using observational data and a hierarchy of model simulations including decadal hindcasts, we find that decadal isopycnal depth variability driven by oceanic Rossby waves in the tropical Pacific provides the most important source of predictability for TPDV. The predictability arising from initial isopycnal depth conditions is further amplified by tropical ocean-atmosphere coupling and variations in the strength of subtropical cells in the Pacific throughout the decadal forecasts. Regional initialization experiments that effectively isolate the impact of different ocean basins on TPDV predictability highlight the essential role of the tropical Pacific. This study enhances our understanding of the mechanisms governing TPDV predictability, offering crucial insights for improving the accuracy of decadal predictions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00851-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142753734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0