npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第3页

Weakened Asian summer monsoon anticyclone related to increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions in recent decades 亚洲夏季季风反气旋减弱与近几十年人为气溶胶排放增加有关

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01026-8

Kai Qie, Wenshou Tian, Jianchun Bian, Fei Xie, Dan Li

引用次数: 0

Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal 2023-2024年异常极端气候的全球和区域驱动因素：超越新常态

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00996-z

Shoshiro Minobe, Erik Behrens, Kirsten L. Findell, Norman G. Loeb, Benoit Meyssignac, Rowan Sutton

引用次数: 0

Identifying source of predictability for vapor pressure deficit variability in the southwestern United States 确定美国西南部水汽压亏缺变率的可预测性来源

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01028-6

Jiale Lou, Youngji Joh, Thomas L. Delworth, Liwei Jia

{"title":"Identifying source of predictability for vapor pressure deficit variability in the southwestern United States","authors":"Jiale Lou, Youngji Joh, Thomas L. Delworth, Liwei Jia","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01028-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01028-6","url":null,"abstract":"Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) measures the difference between saturation vapor pressure and actual vapor pressure, and its variability is closely related to fire activity in the western United States (US). Here, we assess the forecast skill of monthly VPD variability using a state-of-the-art dynamical forecast system and statistical predictions, such as the persistence forecast and model-analog forecasts. In the model-analog framework, we select analog states resembling the observed initial conditions from the model space, and the subsequent evolution of those initial model-analogs yields forecast ensembles. Dynamical forecasts demonstrate skillful predictions of VPD variability in the western US, exceeding the persistence forecast skill, which indicates additional sources of VPD predictability within the climate system. To quantify the contribution of different climate variables to VPD prediction, we develop a weighted model-analog forecast and evaluate its skill in comparison to VPD-only and unweighted forecasts. Our findings suggest that sea surface temperature is a critical source of VPD predictability over the western US. The optimally weighted model-analog exhibits forecast skill for VPD variability comparable to that of the dynamical forecast system.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143789728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dissecting cirrus clouds: navigating effects of turbulence on homogeneous ice formation 剖析卷云：湍流对均匀冰形成的导航效应

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01024-w

Bernd Kärcher, Fabian Hoffmann, Adam B. Sokol, Blaž Gasparini, Milena Corcos, Eric Jensen, Rachel Atlas, Aurélien Podglajen, Hugh Morrison, Albert Hertzog, Riwal Plougonven, Kamal Kant Chandrakhar, Wojciech W. Grabowski

{"title":"Dissecting cirrus clouds: navigating effects of turbulence on homogeneous ice formation","authors":"Bernd Kärcher, Fabian Hoffmann, Adam B. Sokol, Blaž Gasparini, Milena Corcos, Eric Jensen, Rachel Atlas, Aurélien Podglajen, Hugh Morrison, Albert Hertzog, Riwal Plougonven, Kamal Kant Chandrakhar, Wojciech W. Grabowski","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01024-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01024-w","url":null,"abstract":"Turbulent air motions determine the local environment in which cloud ice crystals form. Homogeneous freezing of aqueous solution droplets is the most fundamental pathway to nucleate ice crystals in cirrus. Lack of knowledge about the role of turbulence in cirrus ice formation limits our understanding of how uncertainties in small-scale cloud processes affect the climatological radiative effect of cirrus. Here we shed first light on how turbulent fluctuations in temperature and supersaturation interact with probabilistic homogeneous freezing. We show that spatial model resolution substantially below 1–10 m is needed to properly simulate homogeneous freezing events. Importantly, microscale turbulence generates large variability in nucleated ice crystal number concentrations. Previous research ascribed this variability to mesoscale dynamical forcing due to gravity waves alone. The turbulence-generated microphysical variability has macrophysical implications. The wide range of predicted cloud radiative heating anomalies in anvil cirrus due to turbulence-ice nucleation interactions, comparable to typical mean values, is potentially large enough to affect the response of tropical cirrus cloud systems to global warming. Our results have ramifications for the multiscale modeling of cirrus clouds and the interpretation of in situ measurements.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"183 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143784833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Drivers of persistent changes in the global methane cycle under aggressive mitigation action 在积极的减缓行动下全球甲烷循环持续变化的驱动因素

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00867-z

Gerd A. Folberth, Chris D. Jones, Fiona M. O’Connor, Nicola Gedney, Paul T. Griffiths, Andy J. Wiltshire

{"title":"Drivers of persistent changes in the global methane cycle under aggressive mitigation action","authors":"Gerd A. Folberth, Chris D. Jones, Fiona M. O’Connor, Nicola Gedney, Paul T. Griffiths, Andy J. Wiltshire","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00867-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00867-z","url":null,"abstract":"To achieve the Paris climate agreement goals, methane (CH4) emission mitigation plays a key role. Therefore, a better understanding of the global methane cycle is indispensable. Here we simulate the global methane cycle fully interactively from 1850 to 2100 with a strong mitigation action scenario (SSP1-2.6) post 2014. We show that the atmospheric methane burden largely recovers to early 20th-century levels, while wetland methane emissions follow a persistent upward trend from 166 Tg(CH4) yr–1 at pre-industrial to 221 Tg(CH4) yr–1 in 2100. The methane lifetime decreases from 9.3 to 7.3 years over the 1850–2100 period. We identify net primary productivity as the main driver behind the wetland methane trend with R2 = 0.7. This implies that important components of the methane cycle (wetland methane, methane lifetime) are subject to Earth system feedbacks, potentially impacting any prospective methane mitigation action. Therefore, methane mitigation strategies will need to consider feedbacks in the Earth system.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143782422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Seasonal predictability of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific by a large-ensemble climate model 大集合气候模式对北太平洋西部热带气旋频率的季节可预测性

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00995-0

Takeshi Doi, Tadao Inoue, Tomomichi Ogata, Masami Nonaka

引用次数: 0

Driving factors and photochemical impacts of Cl2 in coastal atmosphere of Southeast China 中国东南沿海大气Cl2的驱动因素及光化学影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01022-y

Gaojie Chen, Xiaolong Fan, Ziyi Lin, Xiaoting Ji, Ziying Chen, Lingling Xu, Jinsheng Chen

引用次数: 0

Uncertainty of 21st Century western U.S. snowfall loss derived from regional climate model large ensemble 基于区域气候模式大集合的21世纪美国西部降雪损失的不确定性

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01002-2

Jesse Norris, Stefan Rahimi, Lei Huang, Benjamin Bass, Chad W. Thackeray, Alex Hall

{"title":"Uncertainty of 21st Century western U.S. snowfall loss derived from regional climate model large ensemble","authors":"Jesse Norris, Stefan Rahimi, Lei Huang, Benjamin Bass, Chad W. Thackeray, Alex Hall","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01002-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01002-2","url":null,"abstract":"The western United States is dependent on winter snowfall over its major mountain ranges, which gradually melts each year, serving as a natural reservoir for water resources. In a future warmer climate, much of this snowfall could be replaced by rain, making it more challenging to capture and store water. In this study, we utilize an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations forced by 14 global climate models (GCMs). These GCMs project wildly different futures, in terms of both temperature and precipitation change, producing significant uncertainty in snowfall projections. Here we exploit the robust statistics of the downscaled ensemble, and diagose the sensitivity of end-of-century snowfall loss across the region to both warming and regional wetting/drying in the driving GCM. The windward slopes of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades are particularly sensitive to warming (losing ~ 15% annual snowfall per degree warming), with little influence of precipitation. By contrast, snowfall loss in the inter-mountain west is less sensitive to warming (~ 5% K−1), but is significantly offset/exacerbated by precipitation changes (~ 0.5% snow per 1% precipitation). Combining such sensitivities with the warming and regional precipitation signals in the full CMIP6 ensemble, we can fully quantify likely snowfall loss and its uncertainty at any location, for any emissions scenario. We find that the western U.S. as a whole will lose 34 ± 8% of its total volumetric snowfall by end-of-century under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario, but 25 ± 6% and 17 ± 6% under the lower-emissions SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143758307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Diverse NPMM conditions deviate the 2023/24 El Niño from the 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 extreme El Niño events 不同的NPMM条件使2023/24年的厄尔尼诺Niño与1997/1998和2015/2016年的极端厄尔尼诺Niño事件偏离

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-31 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01013-z

Yong-Fu Lin, Mengyan Chen, Lingling Liu, Fei Zheng, Ruiqiang Ding, Xin Wang, Chau-Ron Wu, Min-Hui Lo, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Jiepeng Chen, Ting-Hui Lee, Jin-Yi Yu

{"title":"Diverse NPMM conditions deviate the 2023/24 El Niño from the 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 extreme El Niño events","authors":"Yong-Fu Lin, Mengyan Chen, Lingling Liu, Fei Zheng, Ruiqiang Ding, Xin Wang, Chau-Ron Wu, Min-Hui Lo, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Jiepeng Chen, Ting-Hui Lee, Jin-Yi Yu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01013-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01013-z","url":null,"abstract":"The 2023/24 El Niño commenced with an exceptionally large warm water volume in the equatorial western Pacific, comparable to the extreme 1997/98 and 2015/16 events, but did not develop into a super El Niño. This study highlights the critical role of contrasting Northern Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) conditions in this divergence. Warm NPMM conditions during the 1997/98 and 2015/16 events created a positive zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial western-central Pacific and enhanced Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation, driving sustained westerly wind bursts (WWBs) and downwelling Kelvin waves that intensified both events. In contrast, the cold NPMM during 2023/24 induced a negative SST gradient and suppressed MJO activity, resulting in weaker WWBs and limited eastward wave activity, preventing the event from reaching super El Niño intensity. A 2,200-year CESM1 pre-industrial simulation corroborates these observational findings, underscoring the importance of NPMM interference in improving El Niño intensity predictions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143745659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mechanism driving stronger tropical cyclones in cooler autumn than the hottest summer 较冷的秋季比最热的夏季驱动更强热带气旋的机制

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-31 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01008-w

Vineet Kumar Singh, Hye-Ji Kim, Il-Ju Moon

{"title":"Mechanism driving stronger tropical cyclones in cooler autumn than the hottest summer","authors":"Vineet Kumar Singh, Hye-Ji Kim, Il-Ju Moon","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01008-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01008-w","url":null,"abstract":"Warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increase evaporation, convection, and latent heat release in the atmosphere, which favors tropical cyclone (TC) intensification and ultimately leads to stronger storms. However, in this study, we find that the intensity of TCs in the western North Pacific, called typhoons, is on average higher in the colder autumn season than during the warmer summer season. The primary reason for this is that despite the decrease in SSTs during autumn, the deepening of the ocean mixed layer increase the TC heat potential and reduces storm-induced SST cooling. Atmospheric thermodynamic conditions also become more favorable to TC intensification in autumn than in summer due to higher heat and sensible heat fluxes in autumn resulting from the increased air-sea temperature/moist differences at the interface. Lastly, during autumn, the TC’s track shifts towards the equator as a result the TCs in this season travel over more favourable ocean condition which also contribute in the TC intensification. This finding will enhance the understanding of the mechanisms causing seasonal differences in TC intensity, which will aid in TC seasonal forecasting and risk assessment.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143737039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0