npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第3页

Indian summer monsoon’s role in shaping variability in Arctic sea ice 印度夏季季风对北极海冰变化的影响

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00819-7

Jiawei Zhu, Zhiwei Wu

{"title":"Indian summer monsoon’s role in shaping variability in Arctic sea ice","authors":"Jiawei Zhu, Zhiwei Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00819-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00819-7","url":null,"abstract":"The impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on summertime weather in the Northern Hemisphere have garnered considerable attention. Despite the extensive focus on this relationship, the influence of tropical systems on Arctic regions has been relatively underexplored, with only a limited number of existing studies concentrating exclusively on either dynamic or thermodynamic effects. This study aims to address this gap by examining a barotropic anomalous circulation over the Arctic region associated with Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall. The observed anomalous circulation exhibits a distinct zonally dipole pattern, characterized by anomalous high pressure over Northern Canada and Asia, coupled with anomalous low pressure located east of Greenland. Verification through model experiments demonstrates that the diabatic heating of ISM rainfall contribute to the formation of the observed ISM-related circulation. The modulation of surface clear sky downwelling longwave radiation ( $${{DLR}}_{{clear; sky}}$$ ) by the circulation anomalies over the Arctic modified surface thermal conditions, thereby influencing subsequent variations in sea ice thickness and concentration. Under anomalous high pressure, $${{DLR}}_{{clear; sky}}$$ increases, leading to a decline in sea ice thickness, and vice versa. Additionally, from a dynamic standpoint, low-level wind-driven sea ice drift helps shape the spatial distribution and extent of sea ice cover. Besides, the impacts of ISM on Arctic sea ice are largely independent of contemporary ENSO. These findings present fresh perspectives on the role of extrapolar phenomena, such as the ISM, in driving variability in Arctic sea ice during the summer months. This enhanced comprehension holds promise for enhancing predictions of changes in summertime Arctic sea ice extent.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00819-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhanced soil moisture–temperature coupling could exacerbate drought under net-negative emissions 在净负排放条件下，土壤水分-温度耦合的增强会加剧干旱

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00820-0

Sanjit Kumar Mondal, Soon-Il An, Seung-Ki Min, Tong Jiang, Buda Su

{"title":"Enhanced soil moisture–temperature coupling could exacerbate drought under net-negative emissions","authors":"Sanjit Kumar Mondal, Soon-Il An, Seung-Ki Min, Tong Jiang, Buda Su","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00820-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00820-0","url":null,"abstract":"Our understanding of drought evolution and land-atmosphere interactions under climate mitigation scenarios remains limited. Here, we analyzed future drought under net-zero and net-negative emission scenarios using the Community Earth System Model version 2, particularly focusing on three atmospheric CO2 states: linearly increases, decreases, and a return to the initial state. Interestingly, results revealed that net-zero emissions are more effective for drought mitigation than net-negative targets. Drying trends and drought characteristics — such as the duration, frequency, intensity, and area expansion are prominently increased under net-negative emissions due to higher potential evapotranspiration (PET). This is because the soil moisture and temperature couplings are stronger over drought regions and years, especially under net-negative forcing, with notable impacts in Central Africa and South Asia. Nevertheless, both target scenarios offer regional benefits, such as weakened dryness. This suggests that mitigating CO2 alone may not be sufficient to manage future droughts, highlighting the need for advanced water management strategies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00820-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer 欧洲 2022 年创纪录夏季人为变暖造成的死亡负担

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2

Thessa M. Beck, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hicham Achebak, Ana M. Vicedo–Cabrera, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joan Ballester

引用次数: 0

Future climate-driven escalation of Southeastern Siberia wildfires revealed by deep learning 深度学习揭示西伯利亚东南部野火升级的未来气候驱动因素

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00815-x

Ke Gui, Xutao Zhang, Huizheng Che, Lei Li, Yu Zheng, Hujia Zhao, Zhaoliang Zeng, Yucong Miao, Hong Wang, Zhili Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Hong-Li Ren, Jian Li, Xiaoye Zhang

{"title":"Future climate-driven escalation of Southeastern Siberia wildfires revealed by deep learning","authors":"Ke Gui, Xutao Zhang, Huizheng Che, Lei Li, Yu Zheng, Hujia Zhao, Zhaoliang Zeng, Yucong Miao, Hong Wang, Zhili Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Hong-Li Ren, Jian Li, Xiaoye Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00815-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00815-x","url":null,"abstract":"The Southeastern Siberia (SES) region has recently experienced increasingly extensive wildfires in spring, which have threatened its large carbon sequestration capacity from vast forests and peatlands. However, the underlying mechanisms propelling the increased fires and their potential responses to future climate change remain unclear. Here, by using reanalysis data and climate model output together with a deep learning model, we explore the relationship between positive-phase North Atlantic Tripole (NAT) sea-surface temperature anomalies and SES wildfire increases and project the future trend in SES wildfire intensities under climate change. We found that the positive-phase April NAT enhances the Siberian anticyclone, causing increased temperatures and snowmelt via strengthened transport of warm-air advection into the SES region. The latter process heightens the exposure of local high-density peatlands to favorable conditions for fire ignition and leads to more intensive wildfire incidents. We further demonstrate that the projected NAT variations can drive interdecadal changes in future April SES wildfires. With future phase shifting of NAT modes under global warming, the regionally averaged burned area in SES could be increased by 47–62% under different warming scenarios from 1982–2014 to 2015–2100. Our findings reveal the climate-driven escalation of future wildfires in SES in the context of global warming and call for active and urgent fire management strategies to mitigate the fire risk.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00815-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Elucidating key factors in regulating budgets of ozone and its precursors in atmospheric boundary layer 阐明调节大气边界层中臭氧及其前体预算的关键因素

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00818-8

Xin Song, Xiao-Bing Li, Bin Yuan, Xianjun He, Yubin Chen, Sihang Wang, Yibo Huangfu, Yuwen Peng, Chunsheng Zhang, Aiming Liu, Honglong Yang, Chanfang Liu, Jin Li, Min Shao

{"title":"Elucidating key factors in regulating budgets of ozone and its precursors in atmospheric boundary layer","authors":"Xin Song, Xiao-Bing Li, Bin Yuan, Xianjun He, Yubin Chen, Sihang Wang, Yibo Huangfu, Yuwen Peng, Chunsheng Zhang, Aiming Liu, Honglong Yang, Chanfang Liu, Jin Li, Min Shao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00818-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00818-8","url":null,"abstract":"The vertical variations and key drivers of ozone and its precursors, namely NOx and VOCs, in the atmospheric boundary layer, have vital impacts on surface ozone budgets but are poorly understood so far. Using online gradient measurements from a 356 m tower, we obtained continuous vertical profiles of ozone and its precursors, which exhibited strong gradients throughout the day. In the daytime, the vertical gradients of ozone precursors are significantly regulated by reactions with OH radicals. At night, our observations confirmed more intense VOC reactions with NO3 radicals in the residual layer than in the boundary layer. Additionally, we found that residual layer entrainment could contribute to over half of the boundary-layer ozone enhancements in the morning periods. Our results underscore the importance of considering vertical changes of ozone and its precursors in the atmospheric boundary layer when developing future ozone mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00818-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142519201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reconstructing tropical monthly sea surface temperature variability by assimilating coral proxy datasets 通过同化珊瑚代用数据集重建热带月度海面温度变异性

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00816-w

Wenqing Hu, Liang Ning, Zhengyu Liu, Jian Liu, Fen Wu, Mi Yan, Leilei Jiang, Lili Lei, Fangmiao Xing, Haohao Sun, Kefan Chen, Yanmin Qin, Weiyi Sun, Qin Wen, Benyue Li

{"title":"Reconstructing tropical monthly sea surface temperature variability by assimilating coral proxy datasets","authors":"Wenqing Hu, Liang Ning, Zhengyu Liu, Jian Liu, Fen Wu, Mi Yan, Leilei Jiang, Lili Lei, Fangmiao Xing, Haohao Sun, Kefan Chen, Yanmin Qin, Weiyi Sun, Qin Wen, Benyue Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00816-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00816-w","url":null,"abstract":"Coral reconstruction often serves as a major proxy of high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) variability beyond the instrumental era. However, coral reconstructions are sparse and are usually studied for interannual variability, with few studies on the monthly features. In this study, we reconstruct the monthly SST spatial field by applying the paleoclimate data assimilation method to the coral records of the latest CoralHydro2k data set for the instrument period of 1880–2000. A comparison with observed SST variability shows that our assimilated tropical SST variability performs reasonably well for the seasonal cycle and monthly ENSO characteristics, notably the phase-locking and onset timing, and more realistic spatial fields relative to the model simulations. This study suggests the feasibility of applying paleoclimate data assimilation to reconstruct the monthly SST in the historical period.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00816-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142519177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Structural fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation tied to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 北极涛动的结构性波动与大西洋多年涛动有关

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00805-z

Hainan Gong, Kangjie Ma, Bo Liu, Judah Cohen, Lin Wang

{"title":"Structural fluctuations of the Arctic Oscillation tied to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation","authors":"Hainan Gong, Kangjie Ma, Bo Liu, Judah Cohen, Lin Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00805-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00805-z","url":null,"abstract":"The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been observed to undergo distinct decadal structural fluctuations that significantly influence regional weather and climate. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms behind the AO’s spatial nonstationarity is critical for improving climate predictions related to the AO. We present evidence that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) plays a pivotal role in modulating AO’s Pacific center in recent decades. The poleward amplified cooling associated with negative AMO enhances the north-south temperature gradient and results the strengthened westerly winds and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) responses, which reflects more planetary waves from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. This enhances the atmospheric coupling between these regions and leads to a more pronounced Pacific center within the AO pattern. Numerical simulations from ECHAM5 and 35 CMIP6 models further corroborate the essential role of the AMO. These findings advance our understanding of the mechanisms driving the variability of the AO pattern.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00805-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142519197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Seasonal amplification of subweekly temperature variability over extratropical Southern Hemisphere land masses 南半球热带外陆块上空亚周温度变化的季节性放大

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00804-0

Patrick Martineau, Hisashi Nakamura, Yu Kosaka, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka

{"title":"Seasonal amplification of subweekly temperature variability over extratropical Southern Hemisphere land masses","authors":"Patrick Martineau, Hisashi Nakamura, Yu Kosaka, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00804-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00804-0","url":null,"abstract":"Temperature variability has substantial socioeconomic impacts through its association with the frequency and severity of heat extremes. Under anthropogenic influence, climate models project seasonally-dependent amplifications of near-surface temperature variability over some sectors of the Southern Hemisphere, and robust positive trends have already been observed in recent decades. Here we show that the amplification of subweekly temperature variability simulated by the multi-model ensemble mean of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) over South Africa, Australia, and South America is often substantially smaller than in reanalyses in recent decades, reaching a similar amplification only at the end of the 21st century due to a weaker amplification of subweekly variance generation efficiency. Analysis of a large model ensemble indicates that this discrepancy may be due to internal climatic variability suggesting that the recent rapid amplification seen in reanalyses may slow down or even temporarily reverse in the near future.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00804-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142489688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The IPWP as a capacitor for autumn sea ice loss in Northeastern Canada 作为加拿大东北部秋季海冰损失电容器的 IPWP

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00798-9

Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Timo Vihma, Shuoyi Ding, Cuijuan Sui, Bo Sun

{"title":"The IPWP as a capacitor for autumn sea ice loss in Northeastern Canada","authors":"Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Timo Vihma, Shuoyi Ding, Cuijuan Sui, Bo Sun","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00798-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00798-9","url":null,"abstract":"The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) has been warming due largely to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, but its impact on Arctic sea ice remains unclear. Our study finds a significant negative correlation between the IPWP index and sea ice concentration in northeastern Canada during boreal autumn (October-December). Our results suggest that IPWP warming statistically accounts for 45% of sea ice loss observed in this region. We introduce the “Arctic capacitor effect of the IPWP”, a novel concept that expounds upon the distant connection between greenhouse gas emissions and Arctic sea ice loss. Specifically, as greenhouse gases elevate temperatures in the IPWP, increasing temperature gradient and tropical convection, a planetary wavetrain is initiated. This wavetrain, along with transit eddy feedback, traverses towards the Arctic and thereby influences the strength of the Arctic vortex and its associated effects on Arctic sea ice. Our findings highlight the crucial role of tropical oceans in the broader context of global climate change, emphasizing the necessity of accounting for their impact on polar climate.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00798-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142489689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of Solar Radiation Management on Andean glacier-wide surface mass balance 太阳辐射管理对整个安第斯冰川地表质量平衡的影响

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00807-x

Alfonso Fernández, Francisco Manquehual-Cheuque, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela

引用次数: 0