npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

{"title":"Source apportionment of PM10 based on offline chemical speciation data at 24 European sites","authors":"Xiansheng Liu, Xun Zhang, Bowen Jin, Tao Wang, Siyuan Qian, Jin Zou, Vy Ngoc Thuy Dinh, Jean-Luc Jaffrezo, Gaëlle Uzu, Pamela Dominutti, Sophie Darfeuil, Olivier Favez, Sébastien Conil, Nicolas Marchand, Sonia Castillo, Jesús D. de la Rosa, Stuart Grange, Christoph Hueglin, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Evangelia Diapouli, Manousos-Ioannis Manousakas, Maria Gini, Silvia Nava, Giulia Calzolai, Célia Alves, Marta Monge, Cristina Reche, Roy M. Harrison, Philip K. Hopke, Andrés Alastuey, Xavier Querol","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01097-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01097-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study applied Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) to PM₁₀ speciation datasets from 24 urban sites across six European countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland) to perform a detailed source apportionment (SA) analysis. By using a consistent source apportionment tool for all datasets, the study enhances the comparability of PM₁₀ SA results across urban Europe. The results identified seven major PM₁₀ sources including road traffic, biomass burning, crustal/mineral sources, secondary aerosols, industrial emissions, sea salt, and heavy oil combustion (HOC). Road traffic emerged as the predominant source of PM₁₀ in urban areas, with contributions varying by location, but representing as much as 41% in high-traffic zones. Biomass burning was detected at 23 sites, contributing 8% to 41% on yearly averages, with substantial increase in winter. Crustal sources were present at all sites (3–33%). Industrial sources contributed relatively less PM₁₀ mass, which was identified at 10 sites with contributions ranging from 2% to 14%. Secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, consisting primarily of ammonium nitrates and sulfates, and organic matter, formed a portion of the PM₁₀ mass (5–41%). These secondary factors are primarily influenced by anthropogenic emissions, including the various combustion processes. Sea salt, predominantly found in coastal areas, contributed between 4% and 21%, reflecting the impact of the marine environments on air quality. This source was very often ‘aged’ (mixed with anthropogenic pollutants from different origins). Additionally, HOC, especially emits from shipping activities, and traced by V and Ni, was also a frequent contributing source (2–15% for 9 sites), indicating a need for more stringent emission controls. The chemical comparison is performed which indicates road traffic and secondary aerosols, showed consistent chemical profiles across sites, while industrial, HOC, and crustal sources displayed significant site-specific variability. These findings underscore the need for tailored air quality strategies according to local sources of emissions and the importance of long-term PM speciation monitoring for effective pollution control.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144566379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Largely underestimated production of isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) through high-NO oxidation pathways in urban areas","authors":"Sainan Wang, Mike J. Newland, Andrew R. Rickard, Jacqueline F. Hamilton, Thomas J. Bannan, Archit Mehra, Carl J. Percival, Freya A. Squires, Weiwei Hu, Wei Song, Yang Chen, Xiaoling Zhang, Liming Wang, Xinming Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01151-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01151-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Isoprene is the dominant nonmethane volatile organic compound (VOC) emitted into the atmosphere globally, with important atmospheric chemistry impacts on air quality and climate. One crucial intermediate in its gas-phase oxidation is isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX), which contributes significantly to the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOA). It is generally accepted that IEPOX is efficiently formed in remote forested regions with a sufficiently low NO/HO₂ ratio. Here, we show that the oxidation of isoprene hydroxynitrates (IHN) can be an alternative, efficient, NO-driven pathway leading to the formation of IEPOX in urban areas where moderate to high NO concentrations exist. Field measurements from the megacity of Beijing show that this pathway contributes to more than 50% of IEPOX production during the morning and early afternoon. The results improve our understanding of the NO_x dependence of SOA formation in polluted areas, where anthropogenic emissions can significantly enhance biogenic SOA formation.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144566378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic calibration of low-cost PM2.5 sensors using trust-based consensus mechanisms","authors":"Sachit Mahajan, Dirk Helbing","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01145-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01145-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Low-cost particulate matter (PM) sensors enable high-resolution urban air quality monitoring but face challenges from offsets, scaling mismatches, and drift. We propose an <i>adaptive</i> trust-based calibration framework that first corrects systematic errors and then dynamically adjusts model complexity based on sensor reliability. Extensive simulations and real-world deployment in Zurich, Switzerland validate the approach. Each sensor’s trust score integrates four indicators: accuracy, stability, responsiveness, and consensus alignment. High-trust sensors receive minimal correction, preserving baseline accuracy, while low-trust sensors leverage expanded wavelet-based features and deeper models. Results show mean absolute error (MAE) reductions of up to 68% for poorly performing sensors and 35–38% for reliable ones, outperforming conventional calibration methods. By using trust-weighted consensus, the framework reduces dependence on large training datasets and frequent re-calibrations, ensuring scalability. These findings demonstrate that dynamic, trust-driven calibration can substantially enhance low-cost sensor network accuracy across both controlled scenarios and complex real-world environments.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144566239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating predictability limits of North American winter precipitation","authors":"Joseph P. Clark, Nathaniel C. Johnson","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01132-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01132-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Given that seasonal precipitation predictions over North America are not particularly skillful, assessing whether forecast system refinements can enhance skill and societal usefulness of seasonal forecasts is important. We investigate by using average predictability time (APT) analysis to filter wintertime, seasonal precipitation hindcasts provided by the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research. Using this method, which decomposes forecasts into predictable modes, we find limited potential to improve seasonal precipitation forecasts over North America owing to the subseasonal predictability timescales of most APT modes. Nevertheless, more skillful forecasts of APT mode 2, which is tied to equatorial Pacific convection and has a predictability timescale of about 220 days, may improve seasonal precipitation forecasts over North America. We demonstrate that predictions for the winters of 2015–2016 and 2021–2022, which featured notable forecast errors over western North America, may have been improved with better predictions of this second APT mode.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144547352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emergence of anthropogenic precipitation changes in a future warmer climate","authors":"Shoji Kusunoki, Ryo Mizuta, Masahiro Hosaka","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01128-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01128-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The ‘emergence year’ <i>Ye</i> is defined as the start of a future period during which precipitation consistently exceeds the maximum value of the past historical period. Emergence years of future anthropogenic changes in annual average precipitation (<i>Pav</i>) and annual maximum 1-day precipitation (<i>P1d</i>) were projected using high-resolution global atmospheric models with 20-km and 60-km grid-size for the period 1950-2099. A total of 10,000 randomized time series representing the time evolution of decadal natural variability enabled us to directly evaluate estimated frequency distributions (EDFs) on a grid point basis. <i>Ye</i> for both <i>Pav</i> and <i>P1d</i> generally occur earlier at high latitudes than they are elsewhere, and <i>Ye</i>(<i>P1d</i>) is generally later than <i>Ye</i>(<i>Pav</i>). <i>Ye</i>(<i>P1d</i>) covers a larger area than <i>Ye</i>(<i>Pav</i>) does and <i>Ye</i>(<i>P1d</i>) may occur earlier in the tropics and mid-latitudes than <i>Ye</i>(<i>Pav</i>). <i>Ye</i> occurs earlier in scenarios with higher anthropogenic emissions than in scenarios with lower emissions.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"148 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144547389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An alcohol-governed mechanism of monocarbonyl oligomerization: implications for explosive growth of fine particulate matter","authors":"Yuemeng Ji, Jiaxin Wang, Yongpeng Ji, Yanpeng Gao, Weina Zhang, Jiangyao Chen, Guiying Li, Taicheng An","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01138-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01138-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), as a major component of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), significantly impacts air quality, climate, and human health. Although the aqueous chemistry of oxygenated organic compounds (OOCs) is acknowledged as an important contributor to the global SOA budget, the mechanisms by which this process yields SOA-forming oligomers remain unclear. Therefore, we clarify the aqueous-phase reactions of monocarbonyl OOCs (MOOCs, e.g., octanal and 2,4-hexadienal) in sulfuric acid aerosols using quantum chemistry and kinetic calculations. We identified all intermediates and products for established reaction pathways and explored a newly alcohol-governed mechanism for MOOC oligomerization, independent of prior atmospheric knowledge. Oligomers are yielded by the repetition of simple organic reactions, including protonation/deprotonation, hydration/dehydration, and nucleophilic addition, leading to rapid SOA formation. Our results unveil that an alcohol-governed aqueous-phase reaction mechanism of MOOC is likely prevalent across other OOCs in the atmosphere and helps to explain the explosive growth of PM_2.5.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144534059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intensified dominance of El Niño-like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variations","authors":"Fenying Cai, Shuheng Lin, Dieter Gerten, Song Yang, Xingwen Jiang, Zhen Su, Jürgen Kurths","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01140-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01140-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical convection anomaly could serve as a crucial driver of global atmospheric teleconnections and weather extremes around the world. However, quantifying the dominances of convection anomalies with regional discrepancies, relevant for the variations of global atmospheric circulations, remains challenging. By using a network analysis of observation-based rainfall and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, our study reveals that El Niño-like convection is the most primary rainfall pattern driving the global atmospheric circulation variations. High local concurrences of above-normal rainfall events over equatorial central-eastern Pacific amplify their impacts, even though the most intense rainfall anomalies are observed near the Maritime Continent. Furthermore, we find that the impacts of El Niño-like convection will be tripled by the end of this century, as projected consistently by 23 climate models. Such “rich nodes get richer” phenomenon is probably attributable to the dipolar rainfall changes over the equatorial western-central Pacific. This study highlights the dominant role of El Niño-like convection on the global climate variations, especially under the future changing climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144521182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhanced oxidation capacity driven by pollution-induced chlorine chemistry in the coastal atmosphere","authors":"Gaojie Chen, Ziying Chen, Yanru Zhang, Xiaolong Fan, Lingling Xu, Ziyi Lin, Xiaoting Ji, Jinsheng Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01133-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01133-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Reactive chlorine chemistry strongly influences the regulation of atmospheric oxidation capacity, thereby exerting profound impacts on the formation of secondary pollutants and air quality. However, current understanding of distributions and formation mechanisms of reactive chlorine species under the influence of air masses induced by pollution remains limited. In this study, we observed a significant increase in the concentrations of ClNO₂, Cl₂, and HOCl driven by pollution under the influence of continental air masses. By integrating field observations with model simulations, we revealed that unknown sources of these chlorine species are associated with nitrate photolysis and aerosol iron-mediated photochemical processes. The elevated levels of chlorine species promoted the increase in RO<i>x</i> radical concentrations, considerably intensifying the chemical formation of O₃ and PAN and changing their sensitivity. These findings highlight the importance of anthropogenic pollutants in driving chlorine chemistry and provide scientific insights into its significance in regulating photochemical pollution.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144521003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Testing NeuralGCM's capability to simulate future heatwaves based on the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave event","authors":"Shiheng Duan, Jishi Zhang, Céline Bonfils, Giuliana Pallotta","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01137-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01137-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>AI-based weather and climate models are emerging as accurate and computationally efficient tools. Beyond weather forecasting, they also show promise to accelerate storyline analyses. We evaluate NeuralGCM’s ability to simulate an extreme heatwave against the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), a physics-based climate model. NeuralGCM accurately replicates the targeted event, and generates stable and realistic mid-century projections. However, due to the absence of land feedbacks, NeuralGCM underestimates the projected warming amplitude compared to physics-based model references.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"647 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144534030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A causal intercomparison framework unravels precipitation drivers in Global Storm-Resolving Models","authors":"Lucile Ricard, Tom Beucler, Claudia Christine Stephan, Athanasios Nenes","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01104-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01104-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Correctly representing convective precipitation remains a long-standing problem in climate models, due to its highly parameterized nature and unclear role of drivers interacting over a wide range of spatial scales. We analyze and compare simulations of Global Storm-Resolving Models, namely the DYAMOND models, using a methodology based on dimensionality reduction and causal inference, to unravel the contribution of large-scale variables and storm-scale dynamics on precipitation distribution. We derive regions of Column Relative Humidity (<span>({CRH})</span>), which exclude sharp humidity gradients and help define coherent thermodynamic environments, which are subsequently found to control precipitation throughout half of the tropics. The mean <span>({CRH})</span> is the primary large-scale driver in regions sufficiently large to maintain homogeneity that is unaffected by storms over the 30-day simulation period. The control of mean <span>({CRH})</span> on precipitation is notably amplified by considering explicitly the intermediate role of the convective area. Moreover, the effect values are consistent across models and quantiles, which could be further employed to constrain GCMs. Our results show that the most extreme intensities (99.9^th percentile) cannot be adequately represented without high-resolution data on vertical velocity. However, their effect on precipitation varies considerably across models and precipitation quantiles, making it more difficult to develop a constraint on storm-scale control.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144521129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}