Emergence of anthropogenic precipitation changes in a future warmer climate

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-01128-3

Shoji Kusunoki, Ryo Mizuta, Masahiro Hosaka

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Abstract

The ‘emergence year’ Ye is defined as the start of a future period during which precipitation consistently exceeds the maximum value of the past historical period. Emergence years of future anthropogenic changes in annual average precipitation (Pav) and annual maximum 1-day precipitation (P1d) were projected using high-resolution global atmospheric models with 20-km and 60-km grid-size for the period 1950-2099. A total of 10,000 randomized time series representing the time evolution of decadal natural variability enabled us to directly evaluate estimated frequency distributions (EDFs) on a grid point basis. Ye for both Pav and P1d generally occur earlier at high latitudes than they are elsewhere, and Ye(P1d) is generally later than Ye(Pav). Ye(P1d) covers a larger area than Ye(Pav) does and Ye(P1d) may occur earlier in the tropics and mid-latitudes than Ye(Pav). Ye occurs earlier in scenarios with higher anthropogenic emissions than in scenarios with lower emissions.

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未来变暖气候中人为降水变化的出现

“出现年”Ye被定义为降水持续超过过去历史时期最大值的未来时期的开始。利用20公里和60公里栅格的高分辨率全球大气模式预估了1950-2099年期间年平均降水（Pav）和年最大1天降水（P1d）未来人为变化的出现年份。总共10000个随机时间序列代表了年代际自然变率的时间演变，使我们能够在网格点的基础上直接评估估计频率分布（edf）。Pav和P1d的Ye通常在高纬度地区比其他地方出现得早，Ye（P1d）通常比Ye（Pav）晚。Ye（P1d）比Ye（Pav）覆盖面积更大，Ye（P1d）在热带和中纬度地区可能比Ye（Pav）出现得更早。在人为排放较高的情景中，Ye比在排放较低的情景中发生得更早。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.