npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第4页

Divergent effects of temperature and precipitation on water flow into the largest lake on the Tibetan Plateau 温度和降水对青藏高原最大湖泊水流的发散效应

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-30 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01017-9

Yuanwei Wang, Lingxiao Wang, Lei Wang, Ting Li, Jing Zhou, Xiaoyu Guo, Zhaoyan Xie, Sichen Lin, Ying Hong, Lin Zhao

{"title":"Divergent effects of temperature and precipitation on water flow into the largest lake on the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Yuanwei Wang, Lingxiao Wang, Lei Wang, Ting Li, Jing Zhou, Xiaoyu Guo, Zhaoyan Xie, Sichen Lin, Ying Hong, Lin Zhao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01017-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01017-9","url":null,"abstract":"The majority of lakes on the TP have expanded in an accelerated manner, changing the regulation of local water cycles and ecosystems. Here, spatiotemporal changes in inflow to Selin Co (the largest lake on the TP) from 1979 to 2022 were modeled, and the impacts of warming and wetting on water volume were explored. The modeled annual mean lake inflow was 2.27 km3, accompanied by a significant growth trend of 0.035 km3/yr (p < 0.01, the contributions of warming and wetting are −0.016 and 0.048 km3/yr respectively). Warming (+0.0386 K/yr) caused a decrease of 0.33 km3 in lake inflow per year, accounting for 14.5% of the annual mean water volume, while wetting (+4.46 mm/yr) caused an increase of 0.91 km3 in lake inflow per year, accounting for 40% of the annual mean value. These divergent effects of increasing temperature and precipitation on lake inflow makes it more difficult to predict the future water resources of basins such as Selin Co.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143736522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Volcanic aerosols lend causality to the indicated substantial susceptibility of clouds to aerosol over global oceans 火山气溶胶表明，全球海洋上空的云层对气溶胶具有相当大的敏感性

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00974-5

Xin Wang, Feiyue Mao, Daniel Rosenfeld, Yannian Zhu, Zengxin Pan, Yang Cao, Lin Zang, Xin Lu, Wei Gong

{"title":"Volcanic aerosols lend causality to the indicated substantial susceptibility of clouds to aerosol over global oceans","authors":"Xin Wang, Feiyue Mao, Daniel Rosenfeld, Yannian Zhu, Zengxin Pan, Yang Cao, Lin Zang, Xin Lu, Wei Gong","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00974-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00974-5","url":null,"abstract":"The large indicated associations between aerosols and cloud radiative effects imply large negative radiative forcing, i.e., cooling incurred by the aerosols’ effects on clouds, if their relationships are causal. The alternative explanation is aerosol-meteorology co-variability. Here, we examine whether aerosols are the primary driver of aerosol-cloud co-variability, i.e., constituting susceptibility of the cloud properties to aerosols. It is done by domains affected by volcanic aerosols, where the aerosol-meteorology co-variability is expected to be minimized. We hypothesize that volcanic aerosols would reduce aerosol-meteorology co-variability under similar meteorology, thus diminishing aerosol-cloud co-variability. However, our findings in both volcanic and non-volcanic regions across the global oceans indicate a consistent pattern of aerosol-cloud co-variability. This does not prove definitively a causal link between aerosols and cloud properties, but mininimizes the probability that meteorological co-variability is a major cause.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A fast physics-based perturbation generator of machine learning weather model for efficient ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone track 用于热带气旋路径有效集合预报的机器学习天气模型的快速物理摄动发生器

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01009-9

Jingchen Pu, Mu Mu, Jie Feng, Xiaohui Zhong, Hao Li

{"title":"A fast physics-based perturbation generator of machine learning weather model for efficient ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone track","authors":"Jingchen Pu, Mu Mu, Jie Feng, Xiaohui Zhong, Hao Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01009-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01009-9","url":null,"abstract":"Traditional ensemble forecasting based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, is constrained by the need for massive computational resources, resulting in limited ensemble sizes. Although emerging artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather models offer high forecast accuracy and improved computational efficiency, they still face considerable challenges in ensemble forecasting applications, due to the unclear error growth dynamic and the lack of suitable ensemble methods in AI-based models. In this study, we propose a fast, physics-constrained perturbation scheme through the self-evolution dynamics of an AI-based weather model for ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs). These initial perturbations are conditioned on specific amplitude and spatial characteristics, exhibiting physically reasonable dynamical growth and spatial covariance. Based on this perturbation scheme, the TC track ensemble forecasts within the AI-based model significantly outperform those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for both deterministic and probabilistic metrics. Notably, we conduct TC track forecasts with 2000 members for the first time, achieving further enhanced forecast skills in probability distribution and extreme scenarios of TC movement.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"443 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Opposing trends in winter Atmospheric River over the Western and Eastern US during the past four decades 过去40年美国西部和东部冬季大气河的相反趋势

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00998-x

Wenhao Dong, Ming Zhao, Zhihong Tan, V. Ramaswamy

引用次数: 0

Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Western North Pacific 北太平洋西部热带气旋增强率的年代际变化

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01001-3

Han Wang, Chujin Liang, Feilong Lin, Weifang Jin

{"title":"Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Western North Pacific","authors":"Han Wang, Chujin Liang, Feilong Lin, Weifang Jin","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01001-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01001-3","url":null,"abstract":"Intensification rates of tropical cyclones (TCs) are critical in determining their lifetime maximum intensity and destructive power. However, the interdecadal variability of TC intensification rates in the Western North Pacific (WNP) remains unclear. In this study, we focused on the changes in TC intensification rates during 1980-2022 and found an abrupt increase in TC intensification rates after 2002. This change was primarily attributed to TCs undergoing rapid intensification (RI-TC). Furthermore, our investigations revealed that the RI-TC intensification rates were strongly related to the proportions of intensification rates ≥10 knots/6 h (IR-10) (r = 0.88), and the frequency of IR-10 events was highly correlated to sea surface temperature anomalies (r = 0.79), modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Additionally, we found that the IR-10 occurrence frequency shows a northwestward shift during 1980–2022, and this shift was primarily driven by 500 hPa vertical velocity, followed by vertical wind shear. These findings provide crucial insights into the evolution of TC intensification rates in the WNP over the past four decades. The role of IR-10 should not be underestimated in TC development, which could serve as a crucial parameter for the TC intensity prediction.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tracking regional CH4 emissions through collocated air pollution measurement: a pilot application and robustness analysis in China 通过空气污染监测追踪区域甲烷排放：中国试点应用及稳健性分析

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01011-1

Yifan Li, Bo Zheng

{"title":"Tracking regional CH4 emissions through collocated air pollution measurement: a pilot application and robustness analysis in China","authors":"Yifan Li, Bo Zheng","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01011-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01011-1","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate regional methane (CH4) emission monitoring is essential for effective climate mitigation but remains constrained by limited observational networks and challenged by diffuse emission sources. Here, we present an innovative regional CH4 inversion system integrating satellite-based carbon monoxide (CO) observations with ground-based CH4-to-CO flux ratios. Our study estimates China’s CH4 fluxes between 2000 and 2021, revealing an average of 48.4 ± 13.8 Tg yr−1 and a significant increasing trend of 1.1 ± 0.2 Tg yr−2. Over the 22-year period, socio-economic development drove a 92.1 Tg increase in China’s CH4 fluxes, partially offset by a 78.1 Tg reduction due to declining emission intensity; however, this mitigating effect weakened after 2015. Our results demonstrate comparability with independent estimates, and comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analyses confirm the robustness of our approach. This study highlights the potential of integrating air pollution monitoring into tracking regional greenhouse gas emissions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Improved seamless mapping of surface O3 concentrations using an integrated deep learning framework 使用集成深度学习框架改进表面O3浓度的无缝映射

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01007-x

Tongwen Li, Jingan Wu, Yuan Wang, Yuenong Su

{"title":"Improved seamless mapping of surface O3 concentrations using an integrated deep learning framework","authors":"Tongwen Li, Jingan Wu, Yuan Wang, Yuenong Su","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01007-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01007-x","url":null,"abstract":"Satellite-derived ozone (O3) data often contain spatial gaps due to factors such as cloud cover. To achieve seamless O3 mapping, researchers typically either reconstructed the missing satellite input data before the O3 inversion or reconstructed the missing O3 data after inversion. Unlike previous step-by-step approaches, this study proposed a deep learning-based “inversion-reconstruction” integrated framework to estimate seamless surface O3. By inputting gapped satellite data and other auxiliary information, the framework directly yielded gap-free O3 data. The O3 inversion and reconstruction results were jointly optimized in the framework, ensuring high consistency in the seamless mapping of O3 concentrations. Holdout, spatial, and temporal validations demonstrated the effectiveness of our method for mapping seamless O3 across China in 2019, with R² values of 0.809, 0.760, and 0.733, respectively. Daily seamless mapping revealed the spatiotemporal patterns of O3, pollution episodes, and their potential transport routes. The satellite-inverted gapped O3 data showed a 7.37 ± 4.18% difference from the gap-free merged O3 data on a national daily scale.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamics of intensification of extreme precipitation events over the Arabian Peninsula derived from CMIP6 simulations 基于CMIP6模拟的阿拉伯半岛极端降水事件的强化动力学

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01016-w

Raju Pathak, Hari Prasad Dasari, Karumuri Ashok, Ibrahim Hoteit

{"title":"Dynamics of intensification of extreme precipitation events over the Arabian Peninsula derived from CMIP6 simulations","authors":"Raju Pathak, Hari Prasad Dasari, Karumuri Ashok, Ibrahim Hoteit","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01016-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01016-w","url":null,"abstract":"This study derives historical and future changes in extreme precipitation events (EPEs) across the Arabian Peninsula (AP) using data from CMIP6 models. Both the frequency and intensity of EPEs are lower in historical CMIP6 data compared to observations. Despite this bias, CMIP6 models offer valuable insights into future climate projections. Across all emission-scenarios, significant increases in EPEs frequency and intensity are expected over the AP. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), some regions may experience a doubling of EPEs by the end-of-the-21st-century. This rise is attributed to several climate change-driven factors, including the southward-shift and intensification of subtropical-westerly-jet, increased transient activity, enhanced dynamical lifting, and increased moisture transport from nearby seas. These factors suggest a future atmosphere that will be more dynamic and moisture-rich than today. While these CMIP6 insights are crucial for guiding adaptation and mitigation strategies, enhanced EPE modeling is essential for precise decision-making amid rising future risks.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global coupled dynamics of tropical easterly waves and tropical cyclone genesis 热带东风波与热带气旋形成的全球耦合动力学

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01014-y

Xueqing Du, Jung-Eun Chu, Fei-Fei Jin, Hung Ming Cheung

{"title":"Global coupled dynamics of tropical easterly waves and tropical cyclone genesis","authors":"Xueqing Du, Jung-Eun Chu, Fei-Fei Jin, Hung Ming Cheung","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01014-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01014-y","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical easterly waves (TEWs) are westward-moving waves often within trade winds but occur ubiquitously in the tropics and play a significant role in the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs). They are well-known as primary precursors of TCs in the Atlantic, yet their global relationship with TCs has been less explored. This study, for the first time, presents the global distribution of TEW activity using a combined thermodynamic and dynamic framework based on 6-hourly Outgoing Longwave Radiation and curvature vorticity. We then demonstrate that TEWs play a dominant role in approximately 22–71% of global TC genesis, with their highest impacts in the North Atlantic (71%) and Western Pacific (54%). We further identify that TEWs, in their general coupling with TC genesis dynamics, act to intensify TC convection and vorticity in all TC main development regions, albeit the vorticity enhancement is relatively weaker in the North Atlantic. To understand the cross-basin differences in this general TEW-TC relationship, we further investigated background conditions for TC genesis in each basin and found an additional dry environment constraint in the Atlantic TC genesis, yet still delineating the critical role of TEWs in TC development.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impacts of abatement in anthropogenic emissions in the context of China’s carbon neutrality on global photovoltaic potential 中国碳中和背景下的人为排放减排对全球光伏潜力的影响

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01005-z

Zhiyao Hu, Zhili Wang, Zhun Guo, Yadong Lei, Xiaochao Yu, Yingfang Li, Lin Liu, Huizheng Che, Xiaoye Zhang

{"title":"Impacts of abatement in anthropogenic emissions in the context of China’s carbon neutrality on global photovoltaic potential","authors":"Zhiyao Hu, Zhili Wang, Zhun Guo, Yadong Lei, Xiaochao Yu, Yingfang Li, Lin Liu, Huizheng Che, Xiaoye Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01005-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01005-z","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic emission reductions resulting from carbon neutrality and clean air policies in China, one of the world’s major emitters of carbon dioxide (CO2) and aerosols, are likely to influence regional and global photovoltaic (PV) outputs by affecting climate change. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to assess quantitatively how China’s emission reductions toward carbon neutrality will influence the PV potential (PVPOT) and the extremely low PV outputs in the mid-21st century (2041−2060). We find that the large reductions in anthropogenic emissions in the context of China’s carbon neutrality will increase the PVPOT and reduce the occurrence of extremely low PV outputs over some regions in the mid-low latitude continents, especially in East Asia, mainly through increasing the downwelling solar flux at the surface. Our results indicate that China’s carbon neutrality and clean air policies will not only trigger local positive feedback between anthropogenic emission reductions and PV increases but will also generate additional PV enhancements to remote regions, including eastern Australia, South Asia, southern Africa, and eastern South America. This will ultimately accelerate the process of global carbon neutrality in the coming decades.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143712870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0