npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第4页

Speleothem evidence of solar modulation on the south Asia monsoon intensity 南亚季风强度受太阳调节的岩溶证据

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00971-8

Hong-Wei Chiang, Yue-Gau Chen, Shih-Yu Lee, Dung Chi Nguyen, Chuan-Chou Shen, Yin Lin, Lam Dinh Doan

{"title":"Speleothem evidence of solar modulation on the south Asia monsoon intensity","authors":"Hong-Wei Chiang, Yue-Gau Chen, Shih-Yu Lee, Dung Chi Nguyen, Chuan-Chou Shen, Yin Lin, Lam Dinh Doan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00971-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00971-8","url":null,"abstract":"The influence of solar variation on climate has long been debated. Here, we utilize a decadal-resolved speleothem δ18O record from Vietnam, spanning 32.5 to 27.5 kyr BP, as a proxy for regional precipitation levels. Our results show a general coherence between Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and regional precipitation, supporting a positive climate response consistent with conventional monsoon theory. Spectral analysis on studied datasets reveals an approximately 180-year periodicity coinciding with the de Vries cycle of solar activity. Further comparing our record with 35 other speleothem records, we demonstrate the importance of sufficient age control points in capturing solar-related periodicities. Model simulation shows that TSI could enhance monsoonal circulation and regional precipitation. Also highlighted are the implications of chronology control for detecting climate events in proxy records. The new findings underscore the significance of relatively minor radiative forcing in regional climate dynamics over monsoonal Asia on decadal to centennial timescales.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143631306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Absorption enhancement and shielding effect of brown organic coating on black carbon aerosols

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00989-y

Zexuan Zhang, Yuanyuan Wang, Xiyao Chen, Liang Xu, Zhonghua Zheng, Joseph Ching, Shupeng Zhu, Dantong Liu, Weijun Li

引用次数: 0

A comparison of the meridional meandering of extratropical precipitation during boreal winter: eddy momentum flux versus Eulerian storm tracks

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00992-3

Changhyun Yoo, Daeho Jin, Sukyoung Lee, Daehyun Kim

引用次数: 0

Insights of aerosol-precipitation nexus in the central Arctic through CMIP6 climate models

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00957-6

Basudev Swain, Marco Vountas, Aishwarya Singh, Nidhi L. Anchan, Chakradhar Reddy Malasani, Dukhishyam Mallick, Adrien Deroubaix, Luca Lelli, Nisha Patel, Richard Alawode, Sachin S. Gunthe, Roy G. Grainger, Julia Schmale, Vittal Hari, Alexander Kokhanovsky, Manfred Wendisch, Hartmut Bösch, John P. Burrows

{"title":"Insights of aerosol-precipitation nexus in the central Arctic through CMIP6 climate models","authors":"Basudev Swain, Marco Vountas, Aishwarya Singh, Nidhi L. Anchan, Chakradhar Reddy Malasani, Dukhishyam Mallick, Adrien Deroubaix, Luca Lelli, Nisha Patel, Richard Alawode, Sachin S. Gunthe, Roy G. Grainger, Julia Schmale, Vittal Hari, Alexander Kokhanovsky, Manfred Wendisch, Hartmut Bösch, John P. Burrows","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00957-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00957-6","url":null,"abstract":"The Arctic is experiencing heightened precipitation, affected by aerosols impacting rainfall and snowfall. However, sparse aerosol observations in the central Arctic cryosphere contribute to uncertainties in simulating aerosol-precipitation two-way interaction. This study examines aerosol-precipitation co-variation in various climate models during the Arctic spring and summer seasons from 2003 to 2011, leveraging satellite-based aerosol data and various CMIP6 climate models. Findings reveal significant spatio-temporal biases between models and observations. Snowfall dominance occurs in models where total AOD surpasses the observation by 121% (57–186%, confidence interval), intensifying simulated snowfall by two times compared to rainfall during summer. Consequently, climate models tend to underestimate central Arctic rainfall to the total precipitation ratio, suggesting a positive bias towards snowfall dominance. This highlights the importance of constraining total AOD and associated aerosol schemes in climate models using satellite measurements, which potentially could lead to a substantial reduction in snowfall contribution to the total precipitation ratio in the central Arctic, contrary to current multi-model simulations across various spatiotemporal scales.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143608391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhancing sub-seasonal soil moisture forecasts through land initialization

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00987-0

Yanan Duan, Sanjiv Kumar, Montasir Maruf, Thomas M. Kavoo, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jadwiga H. Richter, Anne A. Glanville, Teagan King, Musa Esit, Brett Raczka, Kevin Raeder

{"title":"Enhancing sub-seasonal soil moisture forecasts through land initialization","authors":"Yanan Duan, Sanjiv Kumar, Montasir Maruf, Thomas M. Kavoo, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jadwiga H. Richter, Anne A. Glanville, Teagan King, Musa Esit, Brett Raczka, Kevin Raeder","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00987-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00987-0","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the relative contributions of land, atmosphere, and oceanic initializations to the forecast skill of root zone soil moisture (SM) utilizing the Community Earth System Model version 2 Sub to Seasonal climate forecast experiments (CESM2-S2S). Using eight sensitivity experiments, we disentangle the individual impacts of these three components and their interactions on the forecast skill for the contiguous United States. The CESM2-S2S experiment, in which land states are initialized while atmosphere and ocean remain in their climatological states, contributes 91 ± 3% of the total sub-seasonal forecast skill across varying soil moisture conditions during summer and winter. Most SM predictability stems from the soil moisture memory effect. Additionally, land-atmosphere coupling contributes 50% of the land-driven soil moisture predictability. A comparative analysis of the CESM2-S2S SM forecast skills against two other climate models highlights the potential for enhancing soil moisture forecast accuracy by improving the representation of soil moisture-precipitation feedback.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143599098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The futures of climate modeling

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00955-8

S. Bordoni, S. M. Kang, T. A. Shaw, I. R. Simpson, L. Zanna

引用次数: 0

Testing GWP* to quantify non-CO2 contributions in the carbon budget framework in overshoot scenarios

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00980-7

Matteo Mastropierro, Katsumasa Tanaka, Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais

{"title":"Testing GWP* to quantify non-CO2 contributions in the carbon budget framework in overshoot scenarios","authors":"Matteo Mastropierro, Katsumasa Tanaka, Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00980-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00980-7","url":null,"abstract":"The Global Warming Potential-star (GWP*) approach is a way to convert the emissions of short-lived climate forcers to CO2-equivalent emissions while maintaining consistency with temperature outcomes. Here we evaluate the performance of GWP* when it is used to account for non-CO2 gases within the carbon budget framework. We convert methane (CH4) emissions to CO2-equivalent emissions via GWP* and calculate the temperature through simple climate models. We show that GWP* can accurately convert CH4 emissions to reproduce the temperature until 2100 under a variety of scenarios, including overshoot scenarios, except those with a rapid decline in CH4 emissions. Beyond 2100, however, the use of GWP* can lead to temperature overestimation since it extends beyond its calibration range. Furthermore, we find that under scenarios designed to achieve identical temperature targets but with varying overshoot profiles, cumulative CO2-eq budgets (GWP*-basis) generally increase with overshoot length and magnitude. This is driven by the internal dynamics of our model, as characterized by its negative zero-emission commitment. While the use of GWP* enhances such effects with increasing overshoot length, it exerts opposite effects with increasing overshoot magnitude.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143607924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of warming Tibetan Plateau on the 2020 summer unprecedented Northeastern Pacific Marine heatwave

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00979-0

Xuefeng Han, Ping Zhao, Jiaxin Ye, Jiao Li

引用次数: 0

Machine learning-guided integration of fixed and mobile sensors for high resolution urban PM2.5 mapping

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00984-3

Tianshuai Li, Xin Huang, Qingzhu Zhang, Xinfeng Wang, Xianfeng Wang, Anbao Zhu, Zhaolin Wei, Xinyan Wang, Haolin Wang, Jiaqi Chen, Min Li, Qiao Wang, Wenxing Wang

{"title":"Machine learning-guided integration of fixed and mobile sensors for high resolution urban PM2.5 mapping","authors":"Tianshuai Li, Xin Huang, Qingzhu Zhang, Xinfeng Wang, Xianfeng Wang, Anbao Zhu, Zhaolin Wei, Xinyan Wang, Haolin Wang, Jiaqi Chen, Min Li, Qiao Wang, Wenxing Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00984-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00984-3","url":null,"abstract":"Urban areas exhibit significant gradients in Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) concentration variability. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution and formation mechanisms of PM2.5 is crucial for public health, environmental justice, and air pollution mitigation strategies. Here, we utilized machine learning and integrated air quality sensor monitoring networks consisting of 200 mobile cruising vehicles and 614 fixed micro–stations to reconstruct PM2.5 pollution maps for Jinan’s urban area with a high spatiotemporal resolution of 500 m and 1 h. Our study demonstrated that pollution mapping can effectively capture spatiotemporal variations at the urban microscale. By optimizing the spatial design of monitoring networks, we developed a cost-effective air quality monitoring strategy that reduces expenses by nearly 70% while maintaining high precision. The results of multi-model coupling indicated that secondary inorganic aerosols were the primary driving factors for PM2.5 pollution in Jinan. Our work offers a unique perspective on urban air quality monitoring and pollution attribution.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"71 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143583071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk of glacier collapse in the Southeast Tibetan basin

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00981-6

Minghu Ding, Kaicheng Ji, Baojuan Huai, Weijun Sun, Biao Tian, Cunde Xiao

{"title":"Risk of glacier collapse in the Southeast Tibetan basin","authors":"Minghu Ding, Kaicheng Ji, Baojuan Huai, Weijun Sun, Biao Tian, Cunde Xiao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00981-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00981-6","url":null,"abstract":"Glacier collapse is one of the serious cryospheric hazards in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), especially in the southeast of TP. Recent studies on glacier change and glacier collapse events in this region show that the risk of glacier collapse disaster in Southeast Tibet is vague and not specific. Here, we assess the risk of glacier collapse by combining machine learning method, dangerous glacier identification and vulnerability analysis in the basin. This study considers that the glacier collapse events in this area in recent years are mainly driven by temperature, precipitation and seismic activity under the background of steep terrain. A total of 946 km2 of glaciers in southeastern Tibet are potentially at hazard of collapse, with the largest area of about 320 km2 in the southeastern region; The proportion of the southern region is the highest, about 55.6%. Eight basins are at extremely high risk, including 85 residential areas, 131 roads and 52 rivers. This study directly responds to the needs of the disaster prevention and mitigation strategy to determine the key areas, and emphasizes the necessity of coping with the threat of glacier collapse in the extremely high-risk basins in Southeast Tibet.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143590283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0