npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

{"title":"A comprehensive sub-type source profile of fine particle in China: chemical composition, markers, diagnostic ratios and implication for atmospheric chemistry","authors":"Shaofei Kong, Juan Cao, Xujing Qin, Tingting Wang, Xuan Xiang, Jian Wu, Shihua Qi, Yingying Yan, Yan Yin, Wei Liu, Feng Ding","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01110-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01110-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Comprehensive PM_2.5 source profiles were established for 34 sub-types of sources, with markers and diagnostic ratios updated. OC, EC, SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, Si, Al, Mg, Ca, Ti, and Fe were dominant species. The maize straw, wheat straw, honeycomb coal burning, firework burning, barbeque and cooking are expected to be separated by receptor modeling. EC, Ca, Fe, and Mg can trace nearly all sources. New markers were identified, like Ti, V and Ni for coal-fired power plants. Ternary diagrams were proposed to identify K⁺-Na⁺-Ca²⁺ sources, and Fe existence form. OC/EC and (SNA + OC)/soot-EC ratio for indicating primary OC and mixing state of soot particles were assessed. Fe, Mn and Cu solubilities varied with magnitude differences according to their ratios to SO₄²⁻. For updating OC, EC, SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, P and Cl⁻ emission inventories, anthropogenic dust should be included. The results are helpful for improving knowledge on aerosol chemical transformation and biogeochemical cycle.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144534028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Finer resolutions and targeted process representations in earth system models improve hydrologic projections and hydroclimate impacts","authors":"Puja Das, Auroop R. Ganguly","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01134-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01134-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Earth system models inform water policy and interventions, but knowledge gaps in hydrologic representations limit the credibility of projections and impacts assessments. The literature does not provide conclusive evidence that incorporating higher resolutions, comprehensive process models, and latest parameterization schemes, will result in improvements. We compare hydroclimate representations and runoff projections across two generations of Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models, specifically, CMIP5 and CMIP6, with gridded runoff from Global Runoff Reconstruction (GRUN) and ECMWF Reanalysis V5 (ERA5) as benchmarks. Our results show that systematic embedding of the best available process models and parameterizations, together with finer resolutions, improve runoff projections with uncertainty characterizations in 30 of the largest rivers worldwide in a mechanistically explainable manner. The more skillful CMIP6 models suggest that, following the mid-range SSP370 emissions scenario, 40% of the rivers will exhibit decreased runoff by 2100, impacting 850 million people.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144521063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"South Pacific Oscillation contributes to multi-year ENSOs","authors":"Xumin Li, Jin-Yi Yu, Ruiqiang Ding, Xiaofeng Xu, Kai Ji, Tao Wen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01130-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01130-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Multi-year El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, where the warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) extends beyond a single year, have become increasingly prominent in recent decades. Using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) plays a crucial, previously unrecognized role in determining whether ENSO evolves into a multi-year event. Specifically, when an El Niño (La Niña) triggers a positive (negative) SPO in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere during its decaying phase, the SPO feedbacks onto the tropical Pacific through the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature mechanism, helping sustain ENSO into a multi-year event. This SPO–ENSO interaction is absent in single-year ENSO events. Furthermore, whether ENSO can trigger the SPO depends systematically on the central SST anomaly location for El Niños and the anomaly intensity for La Niñas, with interference from atmospheric internal variability. These findings highlight the importance of including off-equatorial processes from the Southern Hemisphere in studies of ENSO complexity dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"633 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144521064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Photochemistry of iron-containing secondary organic aerosol is impacted by relative humidity during formation","authors":"Natasha M. Garner, Fabian Mahrt, Jens Top, Virginia Tadei, Kevin Kilchhofer, Satoshi Takahama, Imad El Haddad, David M. Bell, Markus Ammann, Peter A. Alpert","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01109-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01109-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) comprises most of the submicron atmospheric particle mass, and often becomes internally mixed with other particles. When SOA mixes with transition metal (e.g., iron) containing particles, metal-organic complexes can form, enabling photochemical reactions that change aerosol physicochemical properties. We studied the photochemistry of α-pinene SOA formed on iron-containing ammonium sulfate seed particles at varying relative humidities (RH). Chemical composition and photochemical reduction of particles were analyzed by X-ray spectromicroscopy and infrared spectroscopy. SOA formed at low vs. high RH had different chemical functionality, including abundant carboxylic acids and alcohols. Following photolysis, carboxylic acids and unsubstituted alkanes decreased, and alcohols increased, consistent with decarboxylation reactions. Iron in SOA formed at high RH was readily photochemically reduced, but iron in SOA formed at low RH was not. Overall, RH conditions at SOA formation affect not only chemical composition but also iron-complex formation and hence photochemical processing of aerosols.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144521179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The significant contribution of biomass burning to methanol-soluble nitrogenous organics and its evolution during the highly-humid haze event in urban Wuhan","authors":"Xuehui He, Ping Zeng, Yanping Zhu, Shan Xu, Haoqian Wang, Yibei Wan, Chunyu Xu, Zongyao Lu, Xiaomeng Guo, Ziwei La, Lele Sa, Rujing Yin, Zhaojin An, Yanqun Liu, Huan Yu, Jingkun Jiang, Xiaoxiao Li, Hairong Cheng","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01118-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01118-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Fine particle (PM_2.5) controls in China have achieved great success these years, but heavy haze pollution still occurs occasionally. The sources and evolution of the complex organic mixtures remain poorly resolved. We collected 46 PM_2.5 samples during a 12-day severe haze episode in Wuhan, a megacity in central China. We analyzed the molecular-level organic composition and functional groups with high-performance liquid chromatography-orbitrap tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-Orbitrap MS/MS). The methanol-soluble nitrogenous organics (ONs) contributed 87.6% and 52.5% of total signal intensity in positive electrospray ionization (ESI + ) mode and negative electrospray ionization (ESI-) mode, respectively. Through source apportionment and backward trajectory analysis, we found great contribution of biomass burning (~21.2% of ONs in ESI+ mode and 78.2% in ESI- mode) and significant aqueous/heterogenous products (~71.2% of ONs in ESI+ mode and 18.7% in ESI- mode) during the prolonged, highly-humid evolution (relative humidity ~86.8% lasting for 7 days). We identified C6–C12 amines and C6-C9 nitrophenols as possible molecular markers for biomass burning emissions, while C17-C19 amine oligomers and dicarboxylic acids as secondary markers from heterogeneous/aqueous reactions. The evolution may include three pathways: (1) polymerization of amines with an oxygenated molecule to form long-chain oxygenated amine oligomers; (2) ring-opening fragmentation of nitrophenols to form dicarboxylic acids; (3) ring-retaining functionalization of nitroaromatics to form nitroaromatic carboxylic acids. Pathway 3 has rarely been observed in ambient air, which is possibly related with the extremely high humidity during the periods and deserves further studies. Lastly, we found that ~39.3% of ON compounds had isomers, and ~43.7% of these isomers had distinct timeseries and originated from different sources, strengthening the necessity of measuring isomers. With the help of tandem high-resolution mass spectrometry, this study provides valuable datasets for the molecular and structural information on sources and evolutions of ONs under the highly-humid urban atmospheres.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144521185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-drivers of air pollutant and CO2 emissions in China from 2000 to 2020","authors":"Wenxin Cao, Yixuan Zheng, Shaohui Zhang, Zbigniew Klimont, Xian’en Wang, Fangming Jiang, Zhulin Qi, Chuchu Chen, Yueyi Feng, Zechen Zhang, Hongkuan Zang, Yu Lei, Gang Yan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01124-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01124-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Revealing how historical energy and environmental policies interacted with socioeconomic factors to shape the trends in air pollutant and CO₂ emissions is crucial for developing effective future pollution-carbon co-control strategies. Here, we develop an integrated analytical framework combining a detailed sectoral emission inventory, index decomposition analysis, and a clustering algorithm to investigate China’s synergetic patterns of air pollutant and CO₂ emissions across 15 socioeconomic sectors from 2000 to 2020 and uncover the co-drivers behind these trends, with detailed temporal, sectoral, and spatial dynamics revealed. Our analysis suggests that historical policies have effectively curbed air pollutant emissions, while abating CO₂ emissions remains a challenge. Energy and climate policies, particularly those focused on structural adjustments, are increasingly instrumental in driving pollution-carbon co-reduction. Compared to the earlier period, the fractional contribution of energy and climate policies to emission reductions of SO₂, NO_<i>x</i>, PM_2.5, and CO₂ increased by 1.3-8.6 times during 2010-2020, respectively. Substantial regional heterogeneity in emission co-drivers underscores the need for tailored strategies, such as adopting advanced energy-saving technologies in areas dominated by energy-intensive industries and accelerating the clean energy transition in regions endowed with renewable resources. Our study would provide actionable insights for formulating effective pollution-carbon co-control strategies in China and beyond.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144534027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distinct bimodal size distribution in number concentration and light absorption of sub-500 nm brown carbon particles","authors":"Haobin Zhong, Wei Xu, Ru-Jin Huang, Chunshui Lin, Lu Yang, Yanan Zhan, Wei Huang, Jurgita Ovadnevaite, Darius Ceburnis, Colin O’Dowd","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01120-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01120-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Brown carbon (BrC) aerosols impact climate and air quality through light absorption, but their size-resolved characteristics remain unclear. This study employs a novel positive matrix factorization (PMF) approach constrained by light absorption and marker fragment to derive the size distribution of the BrC number concentration and light absorption at high time and size resolutions. Our results show distinct bimodal patterns in the BrC number concentration for the sub-500 nm particles at Mace Head, the west coast of Ireland, with peaks at ~20 nm and 107 nm, attributable to new particle formation (nucleation mode) and subsequent growth processes to the accumulation mode, respectively. Light absorption also exhibited a bimodal distribution, with peaks at 137 nm and increasing values to 484 nm. This difference highlights that the larger particles (e.g. around 484 nm), though fewer in number (~3.6% of the total BrC particles), contribute significantly (~70%) to light absorption due to high mass concentration. The direct solar absorption of BrC relative to black carbon ranges from 1.7% to 4.8%, with a slight increase for particles larger than 100 nm, emphasizing the importance of larger particles in BrC radiative effects. These results offer insights into the size-resolved properties of sub-500 nm BrC, enhancing our understanding of BrC properties and potentially reducing uncertainties in aerosol-radiation interactions.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144370472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Atlantic Niño increases early-season tropical cyclone landfall risk in Korea and Japan","authors":"Dongmin Kim, Sang-Ki Lee, Hosmay Lopez, Robert West, Gregory R. Foltz, Jin-Sil Hong, Sang-Wook Yeh","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01112-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01112-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP), which occur mainly from June through November, are greatly influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly during the peak and late seasons (August–November). However, during the early season (June–August; JJA), ENSO is in its onset or developing phase and thus is relatively weak. Consequently, the drivers of interannual variability in early-season WNP TC activity remain less understood. This study shows that Atlantic Niño/Niña, the leading mode of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability in JJA, significantly influences early-season WNP TC activity. Specifically, Atlantic Niño produces anomalous upper-level convergence in the tropical WNP, resulting in a decrease in low-level relative vorticity and mid-level relative humidity in the southern WNP (0°–10°N), and an increase in low-level relative vorticity in the northern WNP (20°N–30°N). These environmental conditions lead to an increase in TC activity over the northern WNP and a decrease over the southern WNP. Due to the resulting northward shifts in TC genesis and track density, the risk of landfalling TCs in far eastern Asia, particularly Korea and Japan, is greatly increased. These results suggest that Atlantic Niño/Niña may serve as a key predictor for seasonal WNP TC activity, especially during ENSO-neutral years.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144370480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin: a scalable framework for AI-driven Earth System Modeling","authors":"John S. Schreck, Yingkai Sha, William Chapman, Dhamma Kimpara, Judith Berner, Seth McGinnis, Arnold Kazadi, Negin Sobhani, Ben Kirk, Charlie Becker, Gabrielle Gantos, David John Gagne II","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01125-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01125-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) numerical weather prediction (NWP) have transformed atmospheric modeling. AI NWP models outperform state-of-the-art conventional NWP models like the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) on several global metrics while requiring orders of magnitude fewer computational resources. However, existing AI NWP models still face limitations due to training datasets and dynamic timestep choices, often leading to artifacts that affect performance. To begin to address these challenges, we introduce the Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT) framework, developed at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). CREDIT is a flexible, scalable, foundational research platform for training and deploying AI NWP models, providing an end-to-end pipeline for data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation. The CREDIT framework supports both existing architectures and the development of new models. We showcase this flexibility with WXFormer, a novel multiscale vision transformer designed to predict atmospheric states while mitigating common AI NWP pitfalls through techniques like spectral normalization, intelligent padding, and multi-step training. Additionally, we train the FuXi architecture within the CREDIT framework for comparison. Our results demonstrate that both FuXi and WXFormer, trained on hybrid sigma-pressure level ERA5 sampled at 6-h intervals, generally achieve better performance than the IFS High-Resolution (IFS HRES) on 10-day forecasts, offering potential improvements in efficiency and accuracy. The modular nature of CREDIT fosters collaboration, enabling researchers to experiment with models, datasets, and training options.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144370476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes and impacts of the vulnerable cryosphere","authors":"Dongliang Luo, Lei Wang, Deliang Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01101-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01101-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144341238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}