npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第4页

Seasonal amplification of subweekly temperature variability over extratropical Southern Hemisphere land masses 南半球热带外陆块上空亚周温度变化的季节性放大

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00804-0

Patrick Martineau, Hisashi Nakamura, Yu Kosaka, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka

{"title":"Seasonal amplification of subweekly temperature variability over extratropical Southern Hemisphere land masses","authors":"Patrick Martineau, Hisashi Nakamura, Yu Kosaka, Swadhin K. Behera, Masami Nonaka","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00804-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00804-0","url":null,"abstract":"Temperature variability has substantial socioeconomic impacts through its association with the frequency and severity of heat extremes. Under anthropogenic influence, climate models project seasonally-dependent amplifications of near-surface temperature variability over some sectors of the Southern Hemisphere, and robust positive trends have already been observed in recent decades. Here we show that the amplification of subweekly temperature variability simulated by the multi-model ensemble mean of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) over South Africa, Australia, and South America is often substantially smaller than in reanalyses in recent decades, reaching a similar amplification only at the end of the 21st century due to a weaker amplification of subweekly variance generation efficiency. Analysis of a large model ensemble indicates that this discrepancy may be due to internal climatic variability suggesting that the recent rapid amplification seen in reanalyses may slow down or even temporarily reverse in the near future.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00804-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142489688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The IPWP as a capacitor for autumn sea ice loss in Northeastern Canada 作为加拿大东北部秋季海冰损失电容器的 IPWP

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00798-9

Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Timo Vihma, Shuoyi Ding, Cuijuan Sui, Bo Sun

{"title":"The IPWP as a capacitor for autumn sea ice loss in Northeastern Canada","authors":"Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Timo Vihma, Shuoyi Ding, Cuijuan Sui, Bo Sun","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00798-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00798-9","url":null,"abstract":"The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) has been warming due largely to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, but its impact on Arctic sea ice remains unclear. Our study finds a significant negative correlation between the IPWP index and sea ice concentration in northeastern Canada during boreal autumn (October-December). Our results suggest that IPWP warming statistically accounts for 45% of sea ice loss observed in this region. We introduce the “Arctic capacitor effect of the IPWP”, a novel concept that expounds upon the distant connection between greenhouse gas emissions and Arctic sea ice loss. Specifically, as greenhouse gases elevate temperatures in the IPWP, increasing temperature gradient and tropical convection, a planetary wavetrain is initiated. This wavetrain, along with transit eddy feedback, traverses towards the Arctic and thereby influences the strength of the Arctic vortex and its associated effects on Arctic sea ice. Our findings highlight the crucial role of tropical oceans in the broader context of global climate change, emphasizing the necessity of accounting for their impact on polar climate.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00798-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142489689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of Solar Radiation Management on Andean glacier-wide surface mass balance 太阳辐射管理对整个安第斯冰川地表质量平衡的影响

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00807-x

Alfonso Fernández, Francisco Manquehual-Cheuque, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela

引用次数: 0

Tropical intraseasonal oscillations as key driver and source of predictability for the 2022 Pakistan record-breaking rainfall event 热带季内振荡是 2022 年巴基斯坦破纪录降雨事件的主要驱动因素和可预测性来源

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00809-9

Jinhui Xie, Pang-Chi Hsu, June-Yi Lee, Lu Wang, Andrew G. Turner

{"title":"Tropical intraseasonal oscillations as key driver and source of predictability for the 2022 Pakistan record-breaking rainfall event","authors":"Jinhui Xie, Pang-Chi Hsu, June-Yi Lee, Lu Wang, Andrew G. Turner","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00809-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00809-9","url":null,"abstract":"In August 2022, Pakistan experienced unprecedented monsoon rains, leading to devastating floods and landslides affecting millions. While previous research has mainly focused on the contributions of seasonal and synoptic anomalies, this study elucidates the dominant influences of tropical and extratropical intraseasonal oscillations on both the occurrence and subseasonal prediction of this extreme rainfall event. Our scale-decomposed moisture budget analysis revealed that intense rainfall in Pakistan was triggered and sustained by enhanced vertical moisture transport anomalies, primarily driven by interactions between intraseasonal circulation anomalies and the prevailing background moisture field when tropical and mid-latitude systems coincided over Pakistan. Evaluation of subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models further highlighted the critical role of tropical intraseasonal modes in causing this extreme rainfall event in Pakistan. Models that accurately predicted northward-propagating intraseasonal convection with a forecast lead time of 8–22 days demonstrated good skill in predicting the extreme event over Pakistan.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00809-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142487283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring multiyear-to-decadal North Atlantic sea level predictability and prediction using machine learning 利用机器学习探索多年至十年北大西洋海平面的可预测性和预测性

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00802-2

Qinxue Gu, Liping Zhang, Liwei Jia, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, William F. Cooke, Shouwei Li

{"title":"Exploring multiyear-to-decadal North Atlantic sea level predictability and prediction using machine learning","authors":"Qinxue Gu, Liping Zhang, Liwei Jia, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, William F. Cooke, Shouwei Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00802-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00802-2","url":null,"abstract":"Coastal communities face substantial risks from long-term sea level rise and decadal sea level variations, with the North Atlantic and U.S. East Coast being particularly vulnerable under changing climates. Employing a self-organizing map-based framework, we assess the North Atlantic sea level variability and predictability using 5000-year sea level anomalies (SLA) from two preindustrial control model simulations. Preferred transitions among patterns of variability are identified, revealing long-term predictability on decadal timescales related to shifts in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation phases. Combining this framework with model-analog techniques, we demonstrate prediction skill of large-scale SLA patterns and low-frequency coastal SLA variations comparable to that from initialized hindcasts. Moreover, additional short-term predictability is identified after the exclusion of low-frequency signals, which arises from slow gyre circulation adjustment triggered by the North Atlantic Oscillation-like stochastic variability. This study highlights the potential of machine learning to assess sources of predictability and to enable long-term climate prediction.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00802-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142486756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of North American winter weather regimes on electricity load in the central United States 北美冬季天气状况对美国中部电力负荷的影响

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00803-1

Oliver T. Millin, Jason C. Furtado, Christopher Malloy

引用次数: 0

Synchronous decadal climate variability in the tropical Central Pacific and tropical South Atlantic 热带中太平洋和热带南大西洋的十年同步气候变异性

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00806-y

Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Soong-Ki Kim, Malte F. Stuecker, Wenjun Zhang, Fei-Fei Jin, Jae-Heung Park, Leishan Jiang, Aoyun Xue, Xin Geng, Hyo-Jin Park, Young-Min Yang, Jong-Seong Kug

{"title":"Synchronous decadal climate variability in the tropical Central Pacific and tropical South Atlantic","authors":"Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Soong-Ki Kim, Malte F. Stuecker, Wenjun Zhang, Fei-Fei Jin, Jae-Heung Park, Leishan Jiang, Aoyun Xue, Xin Geng, Hyo-Jin Park, Young-Min Yang, Jong-Seong Kug","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00806-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00806-y","url":null,"abstract":"Pantropical climate interactions across ocean basins operate on a wide range of timescales and can improve the accuracy of climate predictions. Here, we show in observations that Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have coevolved with tropical South Atlantic SST anomalies on a quasi-decadal (~10-year) timescale over the past seven decades. During the austral autumn–winter season, decadal warm SSTs in the tropical CP effectively induce tropical SST cooling in the South Atlantic, mainly by strengthening the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone via an extratropical atmospheric wave teleconnection in the southern hemisphere. Partially coupled pacemaker simulations corroborate the observational findings, indicating that tropical CP decadal SSTs play a primary pacing role, while Atlantic feedback is of secondary importance throughout the study period. Our results suggest that the tropical CP could be an important source of decadal predictability for tropical South Atlantic SST and the surrounding climate.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00806-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142452079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Revisiting the reanalysis-model discrepancy in Southern Hemisphere winter storm track trends 重新审视南半球冬季风暴轨迹趋势中再分析与模型之间的差异

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00801-3

Joonsuk M. Kang, Tiffany A. Shaw, Sarah M. Kang, Isla R. Simpson, Yue Yu

{"title":"Revisiting the reanalysis-model discrepancy in Southern Hemisphere winter storm track trends","authors":"Joonsuk M. Kang, Tiffany A. Shaw, Sarah M. Kang, Isla R. Simpson, Yue Yu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00801-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00801-3","url":null,"abstract":"Southern Hemisphere (SH) storminess has increased in the satellite era and recent work suggests comprehensive climate models significantly underestimate the trend. Here, we revisit this reanalysis-model trend discrepancy to better understand the mechanisms underlie it. A comprehensive like-for-like analysis shows reanalysis trends exhibit large uncertainty, and coupled climate model simulations exhibit weaker trends than most but not all reanalyses. However, simulations with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) exhibit significantly greater storminess trends, particularly in the South Pacific, implying SST trend discrepancies in coupled simulations impact storminess trends. Using pacemaker simulations that correct Southern Ocean and tropical east Pacific SST trend discrepancies, we show that storminess trends in coupled simulations are underestimated because they do not capture the enhanced storminess resulting from Southern Ocean cooling and La-Nina-like teleconnection trends. Our findings emphasize large reanalysis uncertainty in SH circulation trends and the impact of regional SST trend discrepancies on circulation trends.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00801-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142449652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Western North Pacific tropical cyclones suppress Maritime Continent rainfall 北太平洋西部热带气旋抑制了海洋大陆的降雨量

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00810-2

Xinyu Li, Riyu Lu, Guixing Chen, Ruidan Chen

{"title":"Western North Pacific tropical cyclones suppress Maritime Continent rainfall","authors":"Xinyu Li, Riyu Lu, Guixing Chen, Ruidan Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00810-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00810-2","url":null,"abstract":"It is generally believed that the Maritime Continent (MC) is rarely affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) due to its equatorial location. However, this study reveals that TCs in the tropical western North Pacific can significantly suppress rainfall over the MC and its surrounding seas, based on the composite analysis. This suppression effect of TCs exists across all phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). TCs greatly alleviate rainfall enhancement during the convective phases of the MJO and aggravate rainfall suppression during the suppressive phases. Particularly, TCs reduce the likelihood of extremely high rainfall in convective MJO phases from 9% to 5% and increase the likelihood of extremely low rainfall in suppressive MJO phases from 10% to 16%. The rainfall suppression is attributed to the lower-tropospheric southwesterly anomalies to the south of TCs, which result in moisture divergence over the MC. Additionally, the upper-tropospheric equatorward outflows of TCs also promote subsidence and suppress rainfall. This study introduces a new factor influencing the rainfall over the MC from a synoptic climatology perspective.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00810-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142449649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Observations indicate regionally misleading wetting and drying trends in CMIP6 观测结果表明，CMIP6 中的湿润和干燥趋势具有区域误导性

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00788-x

Laura Jensen, Helena Gerdener, Annette Eicker, Jürgen Kusche, Stephanie Fiedler

{"title":"Observations indicate regionally misleading wetting and drying trends in CMIP6","authors":"Laura Jensen, Helena Gerdener, Annette Eicker, Jürgen Kusche, Stephanie Fiedler","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00788-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00788-x","url":null,"abstract":"We evaluate trends in terrestrial water storage over 1950–2100 in CMIP6 climate models against a new global reanalysis from assimilating GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite observations into a hydrological model. To account for different timescales in our analysis, we select regions in which the influence of interannual variability is relatively small and observed trends are assumed to be representative of the development over longer periods. Our results reveal distinct biases in drying and wetting trends in CMIP6 models for several world regions. Specifically, we see high model consensus for drying in the Amazon, which disagrees with the observed wetting. Other regions show a high consensus of models and observations suggesting qualitatively correctly simulated trends, e.g., for the Mediterranean and parts of Central Africa. A high model agreement might therefore falsely indicate a robust trend in water storage if it is not assessed in light of the observed developments. This underlines the potential use of maintaining an adequate observational capacity of water storage for climate change assessments.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00788-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142444046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0